WEBVTT - What Trump’s no-show means for AUKUS

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM

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<v Speaker 1>at the g seventh summit in Canada. Anthony Alberonizi had

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<v Speaker 1>prepared carefully for a meeting with Donald Trump, even reaching

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<v Speaker 1>out to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman, but just before

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<v Speaker 1>they were due to meet, Trump walked out of the

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<v Speaker 1>summit and flew home. In some quarters, the snub has

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<v Speaker 1>been betrayed as a personal slight but what it does

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<v Speaker 1>highlight is how fragile Australia's relationship with its most important

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<v Speaker 1>ally has become today. It contributed to the Saturday paper

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<v Speaker 1>Paul bon Jorno on the fallout from the failed meeting

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<v Speaker 1>and what it reveals about power, sovereignty and orcus. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>June twenty.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no getting round it. This is a complete humiliation

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<v Speaker 2>for Albanasy. So Trump has had multiple multiple meetings with

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<v Speaker 2>Starma and Karni, but he'd rather have another meeting with

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<v Speaker 2>them than have his first ever meeting with Alberanzi.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul, There's been a fair bit of commentary in the

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<v Speaker 1>media this week that Trump canceling his planned meeting with

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<v Speaker 1>Alberezi was an embarrassment for the Prime Minister. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that's fair commentary?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, look, overall, we can't really claim that Alberanizi was

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<v Speaker 3>singled out by Trump and snubbed. That's just not what happened. However,

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<v Speaker 3>what is embarrassing I think for Albanesi is this.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, it's been a very productive day here at the

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<v Speaker 4>g seven.

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<v Speaker 3>Literally minutes after he outlined that he would be taking

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<v Speaker 3>arguments to the President about tariff concessions.

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<v Speaker 4>Will continue to point out that the United States enjoys

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<v Speaker 4>a trade surplus with Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>That he would be arguing strongly for Orcus and for

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<v Speaker 3>the US to stick by the agreement and the supply

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<v Speaker 3>of the submarines.

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<v Speaker 4>The advantage for the United States, of course, is getting

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<v Speaker 4>access to the upgrade and facilities that will be putting

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<v Speaker 4>in place at Henderson.

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<v Speaker 3>Even revealed that mid spoken to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman,

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<v Speaker 3>but literally as Albanzi left that news conference up on

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<v Speaker 3>social media, the US Press Secretary Caroline Levitt posted that

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<v Speaker 3>Trump was leaving White House.

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<v Speaker 1>Press Secretary Caroline Levitt made the announcement Monday evening, saying

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump is returning to Washington so that he can

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<v Speaker 1>attend to many important matters.

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<v Speaker 3>He'd stay for the day, he'd have dinner with the

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<v Speaker 3>G seven leaders, and he was going back to the

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<v Speaker 3>White House to deal with matters arising in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 5>So it really is his extraordinary development. The main reason

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<v Speaker 5>after the Albanezi is here, Let's face it, The main

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<v Speaker 5>reason Army here and all the objournis are here is

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<v Speaker 5>because he was about to meet Donald Trump and now

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<v Speaker 5>it's off.

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<v Speaker 3>And the other point too, is that some other very

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<v Speaker 3>important people also missed out on a meeting. Narendra Modi

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<v Speaker 3>from India, no lightweight, you'd think that Trump would want

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<v Speaker 3>to see him. Zelenski from Ukraine. But I think the

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<v Speaker 3>most interesting point is that the Mexican President, Claudia Sinbehm

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<v Speaker 3>she also missed out on a face to face meeting

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<v Speaker 3>that next day, but Trump called her and had a

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<v Speaker 3>half hour conversation with her on the phone, explaining things.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think this gave some ammunition to our opposition

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<v Speaker 3>in Australia to say, well, Albanize, he's not doing enough

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<v Speaker 3>to have a very important face to face meeting with Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>to begin a relationship with Trump that would be in

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<v Speaker 3>the Australian national interest.

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<v Speaker 1>The promnist said it was fair enough that Trump had

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<v Speaker 1>to leave he was going to deal with the escalating

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<v Speaker 1>situation in the Middle East. So what do we know, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>about Trump's approach to that unfolding crisis since the G seven.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, what we've got all week is a series of

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<v Speaker 3>seemingly contradictory stands from the US President on how he's

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<v Speaker 3>dealing with the situation in the East. The White House

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<v Speaker 3>and Trump himself distanced themselves from Israel's preemptive attacks on Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>After all, they are more than problematic in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>international law. But there's no doubt that Trump supports Israel

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<v Speaker 3>in that move. Trump saw the attacks of Israel as

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<v Speaker 3>a response to Iran not being all that keen to

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<v Speaker 3>come to the table and negotiate. Now, the timeline doesn't

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<v Speaker 3>support that view. The timeline shows that Israel struck before

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<v Speaker 3>the meetings were due to be held, and then Trump

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<v Speaker 3>goes down to Washington and overnight on his truth social

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<v Speaker 3>raises the stakes for Iran, talking about only unconditional surrender

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<v Speaker 3>will do, which then raised the prospect that what part

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<v Speaker 3>would the US play in getting this unconditional surrender? Would

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<v Speaker 3>it join Israel militarily in taking out the regime. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>as late as Thursday, Trump was still toying with Iran's

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<v Speaker 3>minds on whether he would or whether he wouldn't assign

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<v Speaker 3>American military assets to this battle. There is apprehension that,

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<v Speaker 3>who knows, within a matter of days, we could see

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<v Speaker 3>a major escalation in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 1>So with all of that happening, it seems like the

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<v Speaker 1>next time the two leaders Albanezi and Trump are scheduled

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<v Speaker 1>to be in the same place won't be until September

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<v Speaker 1>for the UN General Assembly in New York. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>any chance that they could meet sooner than that.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, yes there is. Now. The NATO Summit is in

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<v Speaker 3>the Netherlands next week and Trump is booked to make

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<v Speaker 3>an appearance there. Now. Alberanezi, when he met Mark Rutter,

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<v Speaker 3>the Secretary General of NATO in Canada, said that he

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<v Speaker 3>would send Richard Miles, the Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister,

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<v Speaker 3>to the Hague for that summit, But in his last

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<v Speaker 3>New conference in Canada, the Prime Minister hinted that he

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<v Speaker 3>was now considering going himself. The problem here is that

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<v Speaker 3>just as nobody knew whether Trump would turn up to Canada,

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<v Speaker 3>nobody knows if Trump's going to turn up to the Hague.

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<v Speaker 3>But there is some evidence cited by not only Susan Lee,

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<v Speaker 3>but even by Dave Shama, her colleague, who was a

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<v Speaker 3>former diplomat, that this sort of schmoozing of Trump does

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<v Speaker 3>pay dividends. And they point to Keir Starmer, the UK

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<v Speaker 3>PM who'd gone to Washington, had had several face to

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<v Speaker 3>face meetings with Trump, and on the sidelines of the

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<v Speaker 3>g seventh Summit, actually finalized a trade agreement between Britain

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<v Speaker 3>and the US which did contain some concessions on tariff's Now,

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<v Speaker 3>even though Albanezy failed to get a meeting with Trump

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<v Speaker 3>and he certainly therefore failed to get any guarantees on

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<v Speaker 3>tariff consents or on orcus, alban Easy took great consolation,

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<v Speaker 3>if I could put it that way, from a doorstop

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<v Speaker 3>that Trump did with Prime Minister Starmer. We all know

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<v Speaker 3>the great Prime Minister of the UK, and we just

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<v Speaker 3>signed a document. One of the journalists asked Starmer on

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<v Speaker 3>the Orcast submarine agreement, is it still proceeding.

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<v Speaker 2>Yep, we're proceeding with that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a really important deal to both of this.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the person that was doing a review. We

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<v Speaker 2>did the review when we came into government, so that

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<v Speaker 2>makes good sense to me.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's a really important.

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<v Speaker 3>We're very long time partners and allies and friends. Trump

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<v Speaker 3>jumped in and he said, we've become friends in a

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<v Speaker 3>short period of time. He's slightly more liberal than I am,

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<v Speaker 3>to put it slightly on the left. Some reason we're

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<v Speaker 3>in laugh we make it work. And then Trump said,

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<v Speaker 3>but for some reason we get along. Now that's the

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<v Speaker 3>position that clearly alban Ezy wants to get to. There

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<v Speaker 3>is no doubt that Albanesi distancing himself from Trump played

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<v Speaker 3>very well in our recent election. But I think that

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<v Speaker 3>we're now at a stage where domestic political points scoring

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<v Speaker 3>should take second place to Alberanzi as the Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 3>of Australia trying to get the best deal in the

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<v Speaker 3>national interest he can, even if it means taking a

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<v Speaker 3>deep breath and going and seeing Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break. Once Alberanzi takes a deep breath,

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<v Speaker 1>what he needs to say. So, Paul, let's talk about

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<v Speaker 1>Orcust through a bit. Britain has made its position quite

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<v Speaker 1>clear or where it stands on Orcust. Do we get

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<v Speaker 1>any better sense during the G seven about where Trump

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States is still committed to the agreement

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<v Speaker 1>at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's interesting since the arrival of the Labor government

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<v Speaker 3>in Australia and they looked more closely at the ORC agreement,

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<v Speaker 3>they realize that there is a huge get out clause

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<v Speaker 3>for the Americans already. It's up to the President of

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<v Speaker 3>the United States and the Congress to agree to sell

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<v Speaker 3>these submarines to Australia, providing it's in America's strategic interest

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<v Speaker 3>to do so. And what we do know is America's

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<v Speaker 3>falling behind in keeping up building these nuclear submarines to

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<v Speaker 3>meet its own needs. But there is a new fly

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<v Speaker 3>in the ointment here. The review being done by Aldbridge Colby,

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<v Speaker 3>who's the Deputy Secretary of Defense in Washington, and Hugh White,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, our strategic one of our strategic experts in Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>He says, Look, Colby will find that, yes, there is

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<v Speaker 3>the get out clause there already, so they don't have

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<v Speaker 3>to renegotiate that. But Colby will also find that even

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<v Speaker 3>if America does sell a Virginia class submarines to US,

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<v Speaker 3>gives us to or sells US a couple, it will

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<v Speaker 3>own be on the assurance that Australia will give that

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<v Speaker 3>in any conflict between the United States and China, these

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<v Speaker 3>submarines will be at America's disposal. And that's the cruncher.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's where former Prime Minister Keating comes in and says,

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<v Speaker 3>this is putting Australia's sovereignty on the line. It is

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<v Speaker 3>Australia who must decide if we go to war or

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<v Speaker 3>not America.

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<v Speaker 1>So Paula would seem fairly unlikely that the Albanesi government

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<v Speaker 1>would commit to going to war with our biggest training partner, China.

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<v Speaker 1>That seems pretty unlikely, doesn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, look it does, and former Prime Minister Keating in

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<v Speaker 3>a statement says China has no intention and no plans

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<v Speaker 3>or intentions to attack Australia or America. And Hugh White

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<v Speaker 3>makes the point that any conflict between China and America

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<v Speaker 3>over for example, Taiwan would inevitably lead to an almighty

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<v Speaker 3>showdown between these two nuclear armed superpowers and risk nuclear war.

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<v Speaker 3>And if for no other reason, that shows that the

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<v Speaker 3>likelihood of a war between America and China over Taiwan

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<v Speaker 3>is irrational. But the problem that we've got here is

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<v Speaker 3>that rationality and Donald Trump aren't exactly the warmest of bedfellows.

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<v Speaker 1>And so Paul, for all the talk we've been hearing

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<v Speaker 1>from the Prime Minister about Australia maintaining our sovereignty and

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<v Speaker 1>appearing to offer some pushback towards the Trump administration recently,

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<v Speaker 1>do you get the sense that he's committed to keeping

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<v Speaker 1>America active in our region and keeping the security arrangement

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<v Speaker 1>with Orcus alive.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's no doubt Daniel that Albanezi and Miles see.

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<v Speaker 3>But what's emerged in the last thirty years since Keating

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<v Speaker 3>was Prime Minister is a multi polar world in the

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<v Speaker 3>Asia Pacific, with China now able to rival America in

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<v Speaker 3>broad terms for influence. That China is a major economic

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<v Speaker 3>power as well as emerging if it hasn't already arrived

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<v Speaker 3>as a major strategic power, and as insurance for Australia.

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<v Speaker 3>If we can keep America committed and with the presence

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<v Speaker 3>in the Asia specific that is, if we can convince

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration not to go one hundred percent isolationist,

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<v Speaker 3>then America will act as a counterbalance to China. One

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<v Speaker 3>of the problems is, though America seems to think that

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<v Speaker 3>if it's going to be in the region, it has

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<v Speaker 3>to be the biggest dog, it has to be number one,

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<v Speaker 3>and we all have to toe the line. And there

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<v Speaker 3>is a view that America could use its diplomatic leverage

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<v Speaker 3>or try to coerce Australia to be less reliant on China.

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<v Speaker 3>This is where, if you like, our economic sovereignty comes in,

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<v Speaker 3>where we'd have to say to America, hang on, We're

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<v Speaker 3>not going to do anything to jeopardize our relationship with

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<v Speaker 3>basically the key to our own prosperity in the last

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<v Speaker 3>thirty or forty years, namely our economic relationship with China.

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<v Speaker 3>And this again is another hot point if you like that,

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<v Speaker 3>the Alberanese government necessarily has to juggle in the days, weeks,

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<v Speaker 3>and months ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>Paul, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Daniel, it's always good talking to you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also, in the years today, Israel has launched a major

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<v Speaker 1>wave of air strikes in Iran, killing at least six

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and thirty nine people, including over two two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty civilians, according to human rights monitors. Tehran has

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<v Speaker 1>responded with missile fire. While it's supremely devowed to resist

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<v Speaker 1>Western pressure. Donald Trump met with top advisors but has

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<v Speaker 1>not confirmed whether the US will join the conflict, despite

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<v Speaker 1>reports he approved strike plans in advance. Meanwhile, one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and forty Palace dinnings were killed in Gaza in the

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<v Speaker 1>past day, raising ongoing concerns over civilian tolls across the region,

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<v Speaker 1>and more than two thirds of Australian universities have dropped

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<v Speaker 1>in the latest QS Global rankings, with Melbourne and Sydney

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<v Speaker 1>both falling out of the top twenty. The slide is

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<v Speaker 1>being blamed on funding cuts, caps on international students and

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<v Speaker 1>growing competition from Asia, compounded by Trump era pressure on

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<v Speaker 1>research ties, with the US analysts said to wake up

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<v Speaker 1>call for a sector already under series Strain seven am

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<v Speaker 1>as a daily shave from Schwartz Media and the Saturday

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<v Speaker 1>Paper is made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Chris Dangate,

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<v Speaker 1>Eric Jensen, Ruby j Oons, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho

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<v Speaker 1>and Me Daniel James. Our theme music is by Ned

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<v Speaker 1>Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Portio. Thanks for listening,

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<v Speaker 1>See you next week.