Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM
Speaker 1: at the g seventh summit in Canada. Anthony Alberonizi had
Speaker 1: prepared carefully for a meeting with Donald Trump, even reaching
Speaker 1: out to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman, but just before
Speaker 1: they were due to meet, Trump walked out of the
Speaker 1: summit and flew home. In some quarters, the snub has
Speaker 1: been betrayed as a personal slight but what it does
Speaker 1: highlight is how fragile Australia's relationship with its most important
Speaker 1: ally has become today. It contributed to the Saturday paper
Speaker 1: Paul bon Jorno on the fallout from the failed meeting
Speaker 1: and what it reveals about power, sovereignty and orcus. It's Friday,
Speaker 1: June twenty.
Speaker 2: There's no getting round it. This is a complete humiliation
Speaker 2: for Albanasy. So Trump has had multiple multiple meetings with
Speaker 2: Starma and Karni, but he'd rather have another meeting with
Speaker 2: them than have his first ever meeting with Alberanzi.
Speaker 1: Paul, There's been a fair bit of commentary in the
Speaker 1: media this week that Trump canceling his planned meeting with
Speaker 1: Alberezi was an embarrassment for the Prime Minister. Do you
Speaker 1: think that's fair commentary?
Speaker 3: Well, look, overall, we can't really claim that Alberanizi was
Speaker 3: singled out by Trump and snubbed. That's just not what happened. However,
Speaker 3: what is embarrassing I think for Albanesi is this.
Speaker 4: Okay, it's been a very productive day here at the
Speaker 4: g seven.
Speaker 3: Literally minutes after he outlined that he would be taking
Speaker 3: arguments to the President about tariff concessions.
Speaker 4: Will continue to point out that the United States enjoys
Speaker 4: a trade surplus with Australia.
Speaker 3: That he would be arguing strongly for Orcus and for
Speaker 3: the US to stick by the agreement and the supply
Speaker 3: of the submarines.
Speaker 4: The advantage for the United States, of course, is getting
Speaker 4: access to the upgrade and facilities that will be putting
Speaker 4: in place at Henderson.
Speaker 3: Even revealed that mid spoken to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman,
Speaker 3: but literally as Albanzi left that news conference up on
Speaker 3: social media, the US Press Secretary Caroline Levitt posted that
Speaker 3: Trump was leaving White House.
Speaker 1: Press Secretary Caroline Levitt made the announcement Monday evening, saying
Speaker 1: President Trump is returning to Washington so that he can
Speaker 1: attend to many important matters.
Speaker 3: He'd stay for the day, he'd have dinner with the
Speaker 3: G seven leaders, and he was going back to the
Speaker 3: White House to deal with matters arising in the Middle East.
Speaker 5: So it really is his extraordinary development. The main reason
Speaker 5: after the Albanezi is here, Let's face it, The main
Speaker 5: reason Army here and all the objournis are here is
Speaker 5: because he was about to meet Donald Trump and now
Speaker 5: it's off.
Speaker 3: And the other point too, is that some other very
Speaker 3: important people also missed out on a meeting. Narendra Modi
Speaker 3: from India, no lightweight, you'd think that Trump would want
Speaker 3: to see him. Zelenski from Ukraine. But I think the
Speaker 3: most interesting point is that the Mexican President, Claudia Sinbehm
Speaker 3: she also missed out on a face to face meeting
Speaker 3: that next day, but Trump called her and had a
Speaker 3: half hour conversation with her on the phone, explaining things.
Speaker 3: And I think this gave some ammunition to our opposition
Speaker 3: in Australia to say, well, Albanize, he's not doing enough
Speaker 3: to have a very important face to face meeting with Trump,
Speaker 3: to begin a relationship with Trump that would be in
Speaker 3: the Australian national interest.
Speaker 1: The promnist said it was fair enough that Trump had
Speaker 1: to leave he was going to deal with the escalating
Speaker 1: situation in the Middle East. So what do we know, Paul,
Speaker 1: about Trump's approach to that unfolding crisis since the G seven.
Speaker 3: Well, what we've got all week is a series of
Speaker 3: seemingly contradictory stands from the US President on how he's
Speaker 3: dealing with the situation in the East. The White House
Speaker 3: and Trump himself distanced themselves from Israel's preemptive attacks on Iran.
Speaker 3: After all, they are more than problematic in terms of
Speaker 3: international law. But there's no doubt that Trump supports Israel
Speaker 3: in that move. Trump saw the attacks of Israel as
Speaker 3: a response to Iran not being all that keen to
Speaker 3: come to the table and negotiate. Now, the timeline doesn't
Speaker 3: support that view. The timeline shows that Israel struck before
Speaker 3: the meetings were due to be held, and then Trump
Speaker 3: goes down to Washington and overnight on his truth social
Speaker 3: raises the stakes for Iran, talking about only unconditional surrender
Speaker 3: will do, which then raised the prospect that what part
Speaker 3: would the US play in getting this unconditional surrender? Would
Speaker 3: it join Israel militarily in taking out the regime. Now,
Speaker 3: as late as Thursday, Trump was still toying with Iran's
Speaker 3: minds on whether he would or whether he wouldn't assign
Speaker 3: American military assets to this battle. There is apprehension that,
Speaker 3: who knows, within a matter of days, we could see
Speaker 3: a major escalation in the Middle East.
Speaker 1: So with all of that happening, it seems like the
Speaker 1: next time the two leaders Albanezi and Trump are scheduled
Speaker 1: to be in the same place won't be until September
Speaker 1: for the UN General Assembly in New York. Is there
Speaker 1: any chance that they could meet sooner than that.
Speaker 3: Well, yes there is. Now. The NATO Summit is in
Speaker 3: the Netherlands next week and Trump is booked to make
Speaker 3: an appearance there. Now. Alberanezi, when he met Mark Rutter,
Speaker 3: the Secretary General of NATO in Canada, said that he
Speaker 3: would send Richard Miles, the Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister,
Speaker 3: to the Hague for that summit, But in his last
Speaker 3: New conference in Canada, the Prime Minister hinted that he
Speaker 3: was now considering going himself. The problem here is that
Speaker 3: just as nobody knew whether Trump would turn up to Canada,
Speaker 3: nobody knows if Trump's going to turn up to the Hague.
Speaker 3: But there is some evidence cited by not only Susan Lee,
Speaker 3: but even by Dave Shama, her colleague, who was a
Speaker 3: former diplomat, that this sort of schmoozing of Trump does
Speaker 3: pay dividends. And they point to Keir Starmer, the UK
Speaker 3: PM who'd gone to Washington, had had several face to
Speaker 3: face meetings with Trump, and on the sidelines of the
Speaker 3: g seventh Summit, actually finalized a trade agreement between Britain
Speaker 3: and the US which did contain some concessions on tariff's Now,
Speaker 3: even though Albanezy failed to get a meeting with Trump
Speaker 3: and he certainly therefore failed to get any guarantees on
Speaker 3: tariff consents or on orcus, alban Easy took great consolation,
Speaker 3: if I could put it that way, from a doorstop
Speaker 3: that Trump did with Prime Minister Starmer. We all know
Speaker 3: the great Prime Minister of the UK, and we just
Speaker 3: signed a document. One of the journalists asked Starmer on
Speaker 3: the Orcast submarine agreement, is it still proceeding.
Speaker 2: Yep, we're proceeding with that.
Speaker 3: It's a really important deal to both of this.
Speaker 2: I think the person that was doing a review. We
Speaker 2: did the review when we came into government, so that
Speaker 2: makes good sense to me.
Speaker 1: But it's a really important.
Speaker 3: We're very long time partners and allies and friends. Trump
Speaker 3: jumped in and he said, we've become friends in a
Speaker 3: short period of time. He's slightly more liberal than I am,
Speaker 3: to put it slightly on the left. Some reason we're
Speaker 3: in laugh we make it work. And then Trump said,
Speaker 3: but for some reason we get along. Now that's the
Speaker 3: position that clearly alban Ezy wants to get to. There
Speaker 3: is no doubt that Albanesi distancing himself from Trump played
Speaker 3: very well in our recent election. But I think that
Speaker 3: we're now at a stage where domestic political points scoring
Speaker 3: should take second place to Alberanzi as the Prime Minister
Speaker 3: of Australia trying to get the best deal in the
Speaker 3: national interest he can, even if it means taking a
Speaker 3: deep breath and going and seeing Trump.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break. Once Alberanzi takes a deep breath,
Speaker 1: what he needs to say. So, Paul, let's talk about
Speaker 1: Orcust through a bit. Britain has made its position quite
Speaker 1: clear or where it stands on Orcust. Do we get
Speaker 1: any better sense during the G seven about where Trump
Speaker 1: in the United States is still committed to the agreement
Speaker 1: at all.
Speaker 3: Well, it's interesting since the arrival of the Labor government
Speaker 3: in Australia and they looked more closely at the ORC agreement,
Speaker 3: they realize that there is a huge get out clause
Speaker 3: for the Americans already. It's up to the President of
Speaker 3: the United States and the Congress to agree to sell
Speaker 3: these submarines to Australia, providing it's in America's strategic interest
Speaker 3: to do so. And what we do know is America's
Speaker 3: falling behind in keeping up building these nuclear submarines to
Speaker 3: meet its own needs. But there is a new fly
Speaker 3: in the ointment here. The review being done by Aldbridge Colby,
Speaker 3: who's the Deputy Secretary of Defense in Washington, and Hugh White,
Speaker 3: for example, our strategic one of our strategic experts in Australia.
Speaker 3: He says, Look, Colby will find that, yes, there is
Speaker 3: the get out clause there already, so they don't have
Speaker 3: to renegotiate that. But Colby will also find that even
Speaker 3: if America does sell a Virginia class submarines to US,
Speaker 3: gives us to or sells US a couple, it will
Speaker 3: own be on the assurance that Australia will give that
Speaker 3: in any conflict between the United States and China, these
Speaker 3: submarines will be at America's disposal. And that's the cruncher.
Speaker 3: And that's where former Prime Minister Keating comes in and says,
Speaker 3: this is putting Australia's sovereignty on the line. It is
Speaker 3: Australia who must decide if we go to war or
Speaker 3: not America.
Speaker 1: So Paula would seem fairly unlikely that the Albanesi government
Speaker 1: would commit to going to war with our biggest training partner, China.
Speaker 1: That seems pretty unlikely, doesn't it.
Speaker 3: Well, look it does, and former Prime Minister Keating in
Speaker 3: a statement says China has no intention and no plans
Speaker 3: or intentions to attack Australia or America. And Hugh White
Speaker 3: makes the point that any conflict between China and America
Speaker 3: over for example, Taiwan would inevitably lead to an almighty
Speaker 3: showdown between these two nuclear armed superpowers and risk nuclear war.
Speaker 3: And if for no other reason, that shows that the
Speaker 3: likelihood of a war between America and China over Taiwan
Speaker 3: is irrational. But the problem that we've got here is
Speaker 3: that rationality and Donald Trump aren't exactly the warmest of bedfellows.
Speaker 1: And so Paul, for all the talk we've been hearing
Speaker 1: from the Prime Minister about Australia maintaining our sovereignty and
Speaker 1: appearing to offer some pushback towards the Trump administration recently,
Speaker 1: do you get the sense that he's committed to keeping
Speaker 1: America active in our region and keeping the security arrangement
Speaker 1: with Orcus alive.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no doubt Daniel that Albanezi and Miles see.
Speaker 3: But what's emerged in the last thirty years since Keating
Speaker 3: was Prime Minister is a multi polar world in the
Speaker 3: Asia Pacific, with China now able to rival America in
Speaker 3: broad terms for influence. That China is a major economic
Speaker 3: power as well as emerging if it hasn't already arrived
Speaker 3: as a major strategic power, and as insurance for Australia.
Speaker 3: If we can keep America committed and with the presence
Speaker 3: in the Asia specific that is, if we can convince
Speaker 3: the Trump administration not to go one hundred percent isolationist,
Speaker 3: then America will act as a counterbalance to China. One
Speaker 3: of the problems is, though America seems to think that
Speaker 3: if it's going to be in the region, it has
Speaker 3: to be the biggest dog, it has to be number one,
Speaker 3: and we all have to toe the line. And there
Speaker 3: is a view that America could use its diplomatic leverage
Speaker 3: or try to coerce Australia to be less reliant on China.
Speaker 3: This is where, if you like, our economic sovereignty comes in,
Speaker 3: where we'd have to say to America, hang on, We're
Speaker 3: not going to do anything to jeopardize our relationship with
Speaker 3: basically the key to our own prosperity in the last
Speaker 3: thirty or forty years, namely our economic relationship with China.
Speaker 3: And this again is another hot point if you like that,
Speaker 3: the Alberanese government necessarily has to juggle in the days, weeks,
Speaker 3: and months ahead.
Speaker 1: Paul, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Daniel, it's always good talking to you.
Speaker 1: Also, in the years today, Israel has launched a major
Speaker 1: wave of air strikes in Iran, killing at least six
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine people, including over two two hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty civilians, according to human rights monitors. Tehran has
Speaker 1: responded with missile fire. While it's supremely devowed to resist
Speaker 1: Western pressure. Donald Trump met with top advisors but has
Speaker 1: not confirmed whether the US will join the conflict, despite
Speaker 1: reports he approved strike plans in advance. Meanwhile, one hundred
Speaker 1: and forty Palace dinnings were killed in Gaza in the
Speaker 1: past day, raising ongoing concerns over civilian tolls across the region,
Speaker 1: and more than two thirds of Australian universities have dropped
Speaker 1: in the latest QS Global rankings, with Melbourne and Sydney
Speaker 1: both falling out of the top twenty. The slide is
Speaker 1: being blamed on funding cuts, caps on international students and
Speaker 1: growing competition from Asia, compounded by Trump era pressure on
Speaker 1: research ties, with the US analysts said to wake up
Speaker 1: call for a sector already under series Strain seven am
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Speaker 1: Eric Jensen, Ruby j Oons, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho
Speaker 1: and Me Daniel James. Our theme music is by Ned
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