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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. After three and a half years,

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Speaker 1: inflation falls back under three percent, but don't expect a

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Speaker 1: rate cut. Woolworths downgrades's profit outlook on the back of

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Speaker 1: too many discounts and superannuation funds spend four hundred million

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Speaker 1: dollars of members money on marketing expenses, plus plenty going

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Speaker 1: on in markets and the US election. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Thursday, the thirty first of October

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Happy Halloween, Michael, Oh.

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Speaker 1: It is indeed, I'm very excited. I'll share with you

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Speaker 1: a picture of my pumpkin carving, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Really excellent.

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Speaker 1: I'm very quite proud of it. And look at this,

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Speaker 1: still got all my fingers. The main story this morning, Sean.

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Speaker 1: After three and a half years, headline inflation has fallen

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Speaker 1: back into the Reserve Bank's preferred target range of two

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Speaker 1: to three percent. That is good news, though we shouldn't

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Speaker 1: expect any interest rate cuts anytime soon, right.

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Speaker 2: No, we shouldn't. The headline inflation rate came in at

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Speaker 2: two point eight percent for the year to the end

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Speaker 2: of September. For the September quarter, it was just zero

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Speaker 2: point two percent according to the Australian Bureau Statistics. Why

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Speaker 2: was it so low because of those seventy five dollars

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Speaker 2: quarter energy rebates the government has given us. If you

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Speaker 2: look beyond those and you looked at the underlying rate

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Speaker 2: which takes out all these volatile items, and the one

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Speaker 2: that the Reserve Bank likes to look at, it's called

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Speaker 2: the trimmed mean rate, that was three and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: still above that two to three percent target range of

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank. Right on expectations. For the quarter it

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Speaker 2: was zero point eight percent. Good news. The trimm demean

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Speaker 2: measure has fallen from four percent in the twelve months

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Speaker 2: to the end of June to three and a half

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Speaker 2: percent to the end of September. The monthly reading for

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Speaker 2: September came in at three point two percent. That's for

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Speaker 2: the year to September. Now, the monthly readings aren't as

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Speaker 2: comprehensive as the quarterly readings, but I suppose what you

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Speaker 2: can take from that is the fact that the trend

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Speaker 2: was still going down at the end of that quarter.

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Speaker 2: At the end of that three months. The bad news,

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Speaker 2: services inflation rose by four point six percent. It actually

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Speaker 2: jumped from four point five to four point six percent.

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Speaker 2: Services inflation is a real problem for the economy. Goods

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Speaker 2: inflation was just one point four percent. Now that also

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Speaker 2: reflected that energy rebate, But goods inflation hasn't been a

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Speaker 2: problem really at any point this year. It's services inflation,

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Speaker 2: which is very heavily reliant on insurance premiums in this case,

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Speaker 2: housing costs and wages. It just takes longer for services

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Speaker 2: inflation to come down. The results on an all we

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Speaker 2: are pretty good, touch lower than the Reserve Bank has forecast.

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Speaker 2: Jim Charmers, the treasure rest of the economy is on

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Speaker 2: track for a soft landing. I think there were a

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Speaker 2: bunch of economists this morning who were probably pretty happy

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Speaker 2: with that outcome.

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Speaker 1: I would suspect so. And speaking of the Reserve Bank,

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Speaker 1: as you say that if this was a touch lower

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Speaker 1: than what they had forecast, what do they do now?

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Speaker 1: What's the next move for the RBA?

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Speaker 2: Well, they get together on Monday Tuesday next week, have

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Speaker 2: to talk about the economy, but they'very very unlikely to

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Speaker 2: do anything on interest rates. They also meet in the

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Speaker 2: middle of December. Not really much extra information between now

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Speaker 2: and then that's likely to tip them over the edge

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Speaker 2: to start thinking about cutting rates. February next year, well

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Speaker 2: that's the next meeting. There will be December quarter inflation

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Speaker 2: figures by that point, so maybe we can be hopeful then.

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Speaker 2: What they're facing the Reserve Bank is looking at a

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Speaker 2: tight labor market, low productivity growth, and strong government spending,

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Speaker 2: particularly from the different states. That is all working to

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Speaker 2: keep inflation high. However, the underlying trend on inflation is down. Michael,

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Speaker 2: the trend is your friend. I know it's your favorite

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Speaker 2: economics saying it's not, but it's my favorite economics saying

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Speaker 2: the trend is your friend. So in this sense that's

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Speaker 2: good thing. Probably there's enough there for the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: to just get a little bit more confident that the

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Speaker 2: next move in interest rates will be down. Now only

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Speaker 2: in the last couple of weeks. Deputy Governor Andrew Houser

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Speaker 2: said he doesn't know what the next move in interest

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Speaker 2: rates will be, up or down. I reckon the figures

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Speaker 2: yesterday will be enough for them to say, we've just

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Speaker 2: got a bit of an inkling that the next move

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Speaker 2: will be down. That's probably the best we can expect

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Speaker 2: from the bank next week.

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Speaker 1: I do love that saying the trend is your friend,

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Speaker 1: and here it does seem that the trend is quite clear. Right.

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Speaker 1: So there's no chance really of the RBA kind of

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Speaker 1: being a little bit more proactive and pre empting it

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Speaker 1: actually getting there.

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Speaker 2: It's always a chance, Michael, always a chance. But market

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Speaker 2: economists don't reckon all happen.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Well, don't listen to me, then listen

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Speaker 1: to the market economists. Sean Woolworth's share price fell six

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Speaker 1: percent yesterday after the supermarket leader lowered its profit forecast

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Speaker 1: for the current half because it needed to put on

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Speaker 1: more promotions to bring shoppers into its stores.

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Speaker 2: Oh the irony.

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Speaker 1: Yes.

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Speaker 2: Willie said prices had fallen zero point three percent out

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Speaker 2: of the September quarter. If you take out fruit, vege

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Speaker 2: and tobacco, it was down about one point eight percent. Meat,

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Speaker 2: pantry and freezer items have fallen most customers, not most customers,

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Speaker 2: that's not true. More customers are certainly buying cheaper home

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Speaker 2: brands now. The new chief executive officer, Amanda Bardwell, said

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Speaker 2: customers are feeling the cost of living pinch. She also

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Speaker 2: talked about e commerce doing well. But the funny thing

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Speaker 2: about e commerce, you think in most industries e commerce

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Speaker 2: makes things cheaper. It's actually less profitable for Willi's because

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Speaker 2: people have to go and get the stuff off the

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Speaker 2: shelves and they've got to deliver it and all that. Also,

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Speaker 2: Willis has got its own cost pressures in terms of labor,

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Speaker 2: rent and energy. This is all Woolly's side of the argument.

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Speaker 2: Of course, Now there's plenty of political scrutiny over whether

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Speaker 2: the discounting has been real. Will certainly says it has.

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Speaker 2: Its issue is that the economic slow down is biting,

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Speaker 2: and it's saying that actually prices across the board on

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Speaker 2: average are falling. I'm sure we will hear much more

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Speaker 2: about this. News also sent coles a share price down

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Speaker 2: two point four percent.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, we have quite a bit to cover today.

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Speaker 1: It is a relatively big Thursday. We'll be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Superannuation funds spent more than four hundred million dollars that's

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Speaker 1: members retirement savings on marketing and sponsorships in the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three financial year. That is a that is a

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Speaker 1: big sum.

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Speaker 2: Huge sum. The big super funds also gave fourteen million

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Speaker 2: dollars to unions, including nearly four million dollars to this CFMEU.

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Speaker 2: Most of that for one hundred million dollars. Three hundred

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Speaker 2: million dollars worth of it was from the ten biggest funds.

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Speaker 2: Ossie Super for example, spent sixty million dollars in marketing.

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Speaker 2: That was the highest. Forty three million dollars of that

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Speaker 2: was on advertising, most of the rest of it was

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Speaker 2: on direct member communication. The Australian Retirement Trust forty two

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Speaker 2: million dollars in marketing, including eleven million dollars in sponsorships.

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Speaker 2: Sponsorships is a tricky one now host Plus it spent

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Speaker 2: twelve million dollars in sponsorships. It was the biggest. It

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Speaker 2: sponsors the Richmond Tigers in the AFL, the South Sitny

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Speaker 2: Rabbit O's in the NRL. This is all according to APRO,

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Speaker 2: the regulator, as reported in The Australian Appera, is cracking

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Speaker 2: down on inappropriate super fund spending. APPLE wants to make

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Speaker 2: sure that the spending is in the best interests of members.

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Speaker 2: Is sports sponsorship in the best interests of members? Now

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Speaker 2: I'm a souseiting RABBITI fan so good on host plus,

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Speaker 2: but really not so sure. Superfunds, for their part, they

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Speaker 2: say marketing helps effective communication with their members, and there

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Speaker 2: is certainly some truth in that. But four hundred million

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Speaker 2: dollars in one year a lot of money.

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Speaker 1: It is, It's a lot of money. The local share

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Speaker 1: market Shawn fell nearly one percent yesterday, with a few

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Speaker 1: big stocks tumbling.

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Speaker 2: We've already spoken about Woollies and Cole's. Wes Farmers was

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Speaker 2: down two and a half percent. Of course they owned Bunnings.

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Speaker 2: Those inflation figures hit the banks, but really there was

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Speaker 2: widespread selling. Seventy seventy five percent of stocks centered lower yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Among large caps, fort s Q, Metals Group, Telstra, Transurban

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Speaker 2: and CSL were all down on more than one percent.

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Speaker 2: Probably the best of the large caps was Goodman Group

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Speaker 2: Bits and pieces around. Linetown Resources announced progress in its

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Speaker 2: lithium project, but its share price fell four and a

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Speaker 2: half percent. Be good Group. It said that it won't

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Speaker 2: be able to increase prices on its products this financial year.

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Speaker 2: You'll have to find cost saving sending its share price lower,

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Speaker 2: and app And share price rose more than one percent

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Speaker 2: after the Enterprise Software Group said the bottom line had

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Speaker 2: returned to profit in the sept quarter.

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Speaker 1: Hey Sean, A very quick mention of the love that

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Speaker 1: Hey Sean, just casual, doesn't it, Hey Sean. Just a

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Speaker 1: quick mention of the Property Pendulum, which is the podcast

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Speaker 1: coming up straight after this episode is finished. And the

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Speaker 1: Property Pendulum obviously brought to you by Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: and Domain. We take a really close look this week

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Speaker 1: at the September quarter house price report that was released

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Speaker 1: this week, But with one goal that we're talking to

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Speaker 1: to Nicola Powell from Domain about it is answering the

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Speaker 1: question is now the time to buy? Because we are

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Speaker 1: suddenly seeing yes, house price is hitting records in a

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Speaker 1: number of cities, but more supply coming on the market

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Speaker 1: and really some of that pressure coming off quite dramatically

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Speaker 1: in certain cities. So that episode is coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show, so stick around for that one. BHP Sean,

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Speaker 1: Hey Sean, BHP, I've started to have it now. BHP

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Speaker 1: held its annual General meeting in Brisbe yesterday and chair

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Speaker 1: Ken mackenzie said the world was increasingly volatile.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he said, protectionism is threatening global trade. He's confident

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Speaker 2: though that the strategy of BHP of reshaping its portfolio

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Speaker 2: towards copper and potash is a good one. BHP itself

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Speaker 2: is feeling the impact of inflation. It's feeling the impact

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Speaker 2: of the uneven recovery in China and also supply side

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Speaker 2: surpluses in some commodities think nicol and lyvium. Mister McKenzie

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Speaker 2: also warned of more industrial disputes because of new federal

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Speaker 2: workplace laws. Investors like what they heard yesterday from mister McKenzie.

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Speaker 2: It was one of the few large caps to actually

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Speaker 2: close higher in share price terms.

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Speaker 1: After Pay co founder Anthony Eisen is leaving Block Sean,

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Speaker 1: the company that bought after Pay in a record thirty

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Speaker 1: nine billion dollar deal three years ago.

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Speaker 2: It was the biggest M and A deal in Australia's history.

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Speaker 2: Made Eisen and co founder Nick Mulner very very rich.

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Speaker 2: Eisen has worked for Block ever since the in August

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, more than three years ago. Now they're

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Speaker 2: pretty much the fathers of buying our pay later in

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Speaker 2: Australia and really buying our play later is almost an

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Speaker 2: Australian invention. It's a reboot of Layby. It allows for

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Speaker 2: four payments. It kind of suited millennials, really, it suited

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Speaker 2: the technology of the time, and I think it's part

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Speaker 2: of the payment's landscape nowadays. And I made Anthony Eisen

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Speaker 2: and Nick Marlin very rich. He's on the rich list,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Eisen worth about one point four billion dollars. I'd

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Speaker 2: quit work to.

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Speaker 1: Me too, I'd go and live on a yacht.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, A long time, yeah.

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Speaker 1: Very very long time. A couple of critical minerals miners

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Speaker 1: downgraded their production outlook yesterday, sean sending their share prices

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Speaker 1: in opposite directions.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so, Pilbragh Minerals will Mofboll, one of its lithium

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Speaker 2: processing plants in Western Australia, and will cut output from

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Speaker 2: its flagship mine as it tries to weather the storm

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Speaker 2: in lithium prices. Prices during the September quarter were nineteen

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Speaker 2: percent lower than the June quarter for pilbro and that

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Speaker 2: after luthian prices have previously fallen sharply. It's share price

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Speaker 2: they rose two percent on the news. Meanwhile, Liners said

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Speaker 2: it will cut production of rare words basically on the

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Speaker 2: back of the slowdown in demand for electric vehicles. Linus

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Speaker 2: is the largest non Chinese rare earths producer. Its production

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Speaker 2: last quarter was down twenty five percent on a year earlier.

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Speaker 2: Its share price finished down two percent.

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Speaker 1: Star Entertainment posted an eighteen percent drop in revenue for

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Speaker 1: the September quarter. Some of the restrictions on the gaming

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Speaker 1: group start to bite. Probably unsurprising, right, I.

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Speaker 2: Think so Star actually lost money last quarter. Its share price, well,

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Speaker 2: it finished down four percent, but one point it was

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Speaker 2: down ten percent yesterday. Basically, the operating performance is deteriorating.

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Speaker 2: The reasons given challenging operating environment, continued implementation of mandatory

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Speaker 2: carded play in cash limits. Yeah, those restrictions are starting

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Speaker 2: to hurt.

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Speaker 1: Finally, sean ABC will undertake a cultural renewal in coming

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Speaker 1: months on the back of falling TV and radio audiences.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the news came and thought of the ABC's annual report,

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Speaker 2: which was released on Tuesday night, Kim Williams, the chair said,

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Speaker 2: and I quote my board colleagues believe it is imperative

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Speaker 2: to aim, over the course of the next few months

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Speaker 2: to develop an invigorated sense of purpose for contemporary relevance

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Speaker 2: at the ABC corporate speak at its finest.

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Speaker 1: Michael, really, you know what You know what Kim Williams

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Speaker 1: could do is pop that into chat GPT. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: summarize this in two words, make it renewal. Yeah, there

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Speaker 1: we go. International news time now showing Democratic vice presidential candidate.

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Speaker 1: Whilst is the current vice president, she's the new potential president.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: Carmela Harris has given what observers are calling her closing

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Speaker 1: argument ahead of Tuesday's election. And the thing is, the

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Speaker 1: polls are still showing no clear favorite. This thing is close,

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Speaker 1: sure is.

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Speaker 2: Her speech over the past twenty four hours was the

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Speaker 2: equivalent of Donald Trump's speech at Madison Square Garden over

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Speaker 2: the weekend. She attacked Donald Trump as unstable, obsessed with

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Speaker 2: revenge and out for unchecked power, and I quote, America,

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Speaker 2: we know what Donald Trump has in mind. More chaos,

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Speaker 2: more division, and policies that help those at the very

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Speaker 2: top and hurt everyone else. But she also made it

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Speaker 2: pitch to be the candidate of national unity, as she

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Speaker 2: pledged to be a president for all Americans and to

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Speaker 2: always put country above party and self. Harris delivered her

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Speaker 2: address in Washington, d C. With a White House illuminated

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Speaker 2: behind her. She stood on the ellipse, which was the

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Speaker 2: side of Trump's January sixth, twenty twenty one, speech in

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Speaker 2: which he called his supporters to fight like herl hours

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Speaker 2: before they stormed the US capital a lot of symbolism there.

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Speaker 1: This is another big story here Sean, Ukraine and Russia

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Speaker 1: are in early talks about halting strikes on each other's

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Speaker 1: energy and structure. That's significant, definitely.

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Speaker 2: The Financial Times is reporting that Kieva wants to resume

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Speaker 2: Katar mediated negotiations that were derailed by Ukraine's invasion of

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Speaker 2: Kurse a couple of months ago. Any agreement would certainly

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Speaker 2: signify a significant de escalation since the start of the

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Speaker 2: war in early twenty twenty two. President Vladimir Zelenski has

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Speaker 2: previously set a deal to protect energy facilities could be

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Speaker 2: a precursor to broader peace talks. Let's hope that steps

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Speaker 2: continue to be taken and things move forward.

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Speaker 1: And there's a bit going on just quickly in international markets,

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Speaker 1: including a bit of activity in the Aussie.

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Speaker 2: Dollars on Yeah, trading under sixty five and a half

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Speaker 2: few US since it looks like it will have the

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Speaker 2: biggest monthly drop this month finishes at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day Since twenty twenty two. Gold is soaring on

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Speaker 2: the Trump trade. The Trump trade a lot of that

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Speaker 2: around at the moment. It's a safe haven asset, so

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Speaker 2: people think, well, we might put a little bit of

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Speaker 2: money in that just in case. It hit a new

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Speaker 2: record yesterday of more than twenty two to seventy five

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Speaker 2: US dollars an ounce. Bitcoin's also jumping, that's another Trump trade.

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Speaker 2: It's around seventy three thousand, six hundred US dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 2: That's only a couple of hundred dollars below its record.

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Speaker 2: Oil prices they have extended losses. Now, if you wonder

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Speaker 2: why petrol prices have jumped near you in the last

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Speaker 2: day or two, which I have, there's generally a two

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Speaker 2: or three week lag between what happens in oil markets

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Speaker 2: and the Ausie dollar and what we see at the

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Speaker 2: petrol bowser. That's why that's happened. And earning season in

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Speaker 2: the US continues. The big one recently or in recent

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Speaker 2: days has been Google and an alphabet. It reported better

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Speaker 2: than expected September quarter earnings, helped by its cloud computing business.

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Speaker 1: You know how it's Halloween, Sean, do you know which

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Speaker 1: country exports the most pumpkins?

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Speaker 2: Exports the most pumpkins Mexica.

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Speaker 1: No what wow, oh my gosh, like it is not right,

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Speaker 1: but it is very very close. That is number two

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Speaker 1: on the list. How did you know that?

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Speaker 2: Well, I figured the US would want more pumpkins than

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Speaker 2: anyone else at Halloween, and Mexico is a big agricultural producer.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are. It's like you are the

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Speaker 1: human equivalent of chat GPT.

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Speaker 2: So what is But I was wrong? But I was wrong?

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Speaker 1: You were wrong. Number five is the United States? Right? Interesting?

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Speaker 1: I mean they wouldn't export it, You would think they

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Speaker 1: would keep it all for themselves to carf. But anyway,

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Speaker 1: the Netherlands is number four.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 1: Turkey is number three, and there's a massive, massive gap

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Speaker 1: between number two and number three. Mexico is quite a

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Speaker 1: big exporter of pumpkins, but number one on the list

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Speaker 1: of the most pumpkins exported Spain. Go oh golly. I'm

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Speaker 1: just still amazed that you managed to work out Mexico.

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Speaker 1: That is really quite something anyway. Also quite something is

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Speaker 1: the property pendulum, brought to you by Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: and Domain, which is coming up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist on your podcast platform. Thank you very much. Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the thirty first of October twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.