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Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to 7am. For generations,

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Speaker 1: Australians could reasonably expect that their lives would be more

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Speaker 1: prosperous than their parents. But over recent years, that bargain

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Speaker 1: has started to break down. Productivity growth has barely moved

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Speaker 1: for a decade. We're working more hours without producing much

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Speaker 1: more for each hour we do work. And that stagnation

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Speaker 1: is showing up in incomes and living standards. Now, with

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Speaker 1: economic growth under pressure, the government is betting that new technology,

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Speaker 1: particularly artificial intelligence, can help turn things around. Today, Productivity

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Speaker 1: Commission Chair Danielle Wood on why Australia has stopped becoming

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Speaker 1: more productive, whether AI can change that, and what happens

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Speaker 1: if it can't. It's Thursday, October 15. Danielle, it's good

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Speaker 1: to have you on the show. When the RBA raised

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Speaker 1: interest rates at the end of last month, one of

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Speaker 1: the big problems Michelle Bullock identified was productivity.

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Speaker 2: The bottom line is that productivity is doing nothing.

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Speaker 1: It was also something Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated as a

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Speaker 1: top priority for the government's second term.

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Speaker 3: We've got the biggest and broadest productivity package in the

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Speaker 3: budget that we've seen for some decades.

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Speaker 1: Can you start by explaining what productivity is? Because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean working harder and longer, correct?

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Speaker 2: That's right. And I'm very glad you say that.

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Speaker 4: I remember early on in this role, a union leader

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Speaker 4: said to me, when people hear productivity, they hear, you know,

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Speaker 4: work till you bleed. And that's absolutely not what we

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Speaker 4: are talking about. Productivity in sort of economic terms is

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Speaker 4: the amount of value add we create per hour worked.

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Speaker 4: And generally, productivity improves over time because... We get more

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Speaker 4: machines and capital. We get better technology. You know, think

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Speaker 4: about how different our healthcare system looks now compared to

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Speaker 4: 50 years ago. That's an improvement in productivity. We train people.

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Speaker 4: We match them to jobs. All of those things can

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Speaker 4: help broader productivity. And that's what then drives improvements in

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Speaker 4: our living standards over time.

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Speaker 1: Productivity growth in Australia has been stagnating for like over

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Speaker 1: the last decade almost. How bad is it and how

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Speaker 1: does that affect people's lives?

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Speaker 4: Look, you're absolutely right to say the last decade has

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Speaker 4: been a very challenging time. The national accounts outcome last

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Speaker 4: week was a sharp reminder that we cannot afford to

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Speaker 4: take growth for granted. Despite these developments, the gains in

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Speaker 4: productivity from technical change appear to be diminishing.

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Speaker 3: That productivity has started to slow for a number of reasons.

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Speaker 3: We're still growing, but not growing as fast as we

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Speaker 3: would hope.

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Speaker 4: Look, if we took a 60-year average, productivity has grown

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Speaker 4: about 1.6% a year. If we just look at the

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Speaker 4: last decade, it's been about 0.3% a year.

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Speaker 2: And it bounces up and down and COVID did some

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Speaker 2: weird things.

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Speaker 4: But, you know, so it's essentially, it's pretty close to zero,

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Speaker 4: less than a quarter of its 60-year average. What that means,

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Speaker 4: I think we all would have seen it. Real wages

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Speaker 4: grow less strongly. We're not seeing the same kind of improvements.

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Speaker 4: And then over a longer term horizon, when you start

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Speaker 4: hitting a decade mark, it actually starts to impact generation

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Speaker 4: on generation progress in living standards. For example, millennials or

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Speaker 4: late millennials born in the 1990s hit the job market

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Speaker 4: as productivity started to flatline. They're the first generation not

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Speaker 4: to earn more than people born 10 years before them

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Speaker 4: at the same age.

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Speaker 2: So we start to.

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Speaker 4: See that kind of expectation of generation on generation progress confounded.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and it leads to a great deal of discontent.

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Speaker 1: One of the things Michelle Bullock pointed out at a

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Speaker 1: conference last month was the role of business. She said

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Speaker 1: over the last decade, Australian businesses have become less dynamic,

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Speaker 1: they're not investing enough, they're not looking at ways to

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Speaker 1: increase productivity. Have we lost our innovation over the past decade?

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Speaker 1: What's happened there?

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Speaker 4: I mean, it does sort of, when you look at

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Speaker 4: the data, it does look like the animal spirits have

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Speaker 4: somewhat left the building. And certainly investment well down as

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Speaker 4: a share of the economy since the global financial crisis,

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Speaker 4: so even a bit longer than the period that we're

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Speaker 4: talking about. It's a little unclear what's going on. It

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Speaker 4: may be that there have been sort of less broad opportunities,

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Speaker 4: but I think we see it, for example, in lower

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Speaker 4: adoption of new technologies compared to other countries we like

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Speaker 4: to compare ourselves with. We're slower up the AI adoption curve,

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Speaker 4: for example. Some of that could be about management capability.

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Speaker 4: Some of it might be about risk appetite. But certainly,

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Speaker 4: I think Michelle Bullock is right to point to a

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Speaker 4: role for business in turning around this productivity challenge.

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Speaker 1: How big a factor is competition? We've got a lot

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Speaker 1: of big duopolies in this country, especially if we think

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Speaker 1: of things like the supermarkets.

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Speaker 5: There are more than 26 million of us, but just

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Speaker 5: two supermarkets control how much we spend. Coles and Woolworths

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Speaker 5: among the most profitable in the world.

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Speaker 1: Does that create a certain lethargy, a certain laziness? Because

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Speaker 1: you don't need to innovate if you rake in monster profits.

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Speaker 4: Look, it's certainly true that competition is really an important.

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Speaker 2: Driver of the.

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Speaker 4: Need to invest and innovate, and it keeps people on

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Speaker 4: their toes and dynamic.

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Speaker 2: And so the way I think about it.

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Speaker 4: Is we want to make sure that policy is creating

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Speaker 4: the conditions for competition.

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Speaker 2: The government did a year or so ago.

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Speaker 4: Some reforms to mergers laws, which were really important because

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Speaker 4: it's about making sure that it's harder to get anti-competitive

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Speaker 4: policies market position and market power, but also it's really

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Speaker 4: important that we kind of look market by market and

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Speaker 4: make sure that there's not impediments.

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Speaker 2: And things like regulation can actually be an impediment.

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Speaker 4: If we have big, complex regulatory systems, it can make

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Speaker 4: it hard for new entrants to come in and challenge.

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Speaker 2: So I think competition is part of the story.

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Speaker 1: What's the government role in all of this? Is the

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Speaker 1: problem that Australian businesses over the past decade have become

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Speaker 1: more risk adverse or does government need to rejig its

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Speaker 1: policy settings to create an environment that encourages business to

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Speaker 1: invest in their own productivity?

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Speaker 4: Look, I think governments do have an important role, but

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Speaker 4: sometimes the public conversation sounds like, if governments just pulled

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Speaker 4: the big lever, mark.

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Speaker 2: Tax reform, then everything's going to be fine.

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Speaker 4: It's not that simple, but governments create the ecosystem in

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Speaker 4: which productivity can occur. So you can think of it,

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Speaker 4: they create some of the really important enablers, so skills

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Speaker 4: and training, population health, innovation policy. They have an important

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Speaker 4: lever around incentives, so tax, regulatory settings make a difference.

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Speaker 4: And then just governments, just big players in the economy themselves.

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Speaker 4: So through their own provided services, they can have an

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Speaker 4: impact on productivity there. So governments do have an important role.

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Speaker 4: It's not a single policy issue. I say it's a

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Speaker 4: game of inches because you've actually got to be shifting

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Speaker 4: the dial across a whole range of areas and then

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Speaker 4: business can invest and take risks within that kind of

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Speaker 4: broad ecosystem.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, can artificial intelligence bring productivity back to life? So, Danielle,

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Speaker 1: how do we turn this around? Because as you said,

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Speaker 1: we've had long stints of productivity, but we are now stagnating.

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Speaker 1: The government is optimistic, predicting productivity growth of 1.2% a

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Speaker 1: year in its recent intergenerational report. AI seems to be

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Speaker 1: the thing that they're pinning so much of their hopes

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Speaker 1: on when it comes to that growth. Is AI the answer?

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Speaker 4: Look, I am optimistic about AI being an important part of.

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Speaker 2: The story going forward.

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Speaker 4: And if we look back through history, it has been

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Speaker 4: shifts in general purpose technologies, you know, going back to

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Speaker 4: the steam engine and electricity and the kind of first

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Speaker 4: wave of ICT. Those things have fundamentally changed the way

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Speaker 4: we've structured our economies and businesses and unleashed decades, sometimes

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Speaker 4: centuries of growth. And so I think people are looking

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Speaker 4: at AI, it is general purpose, you know, it has

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Speaker 4: use cases across almost every part of the economy and society.

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Speaker 3: The AI revolution is the most consequential new emphasis since

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Speaker 3: the 2023 report and the biggest economic transformation.

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Speaker 1: Of our lifetime.

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Speaker 4: And so, you know, when I think about where's the

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Speaker 4: kind of structural change going to come from in that story,

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Speaker 4: I do agree with the government that I think AI

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Speaker 4: is probably the most likely candidate.

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Speaker 2: As to the magnitude, I mean, it's super hard.

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Speaker 6: To know.

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Speaker 2: I think we're all going to be very modest in

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Speaker 2: this space.

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Speaker 4: We did an exercise about a year or so ago

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Speaker 4: where we just looked at sort of task-specific efficiencies. And

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Speaker 4: based on that, we thought could add about 0.4% a

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Speaker 4: year to labour productivity growth over the decade. You know,

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Speaker 4: there are more optimistic scenarios that say, you know, if

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Speaker 4: AI changes the pace of innovation itself, it could be

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Speaker 4: more than that.

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Speaker 2: But, you know, hand on heart, I don't think anyone

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Speaker 2: could tell you for sure.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for your brutal honesty there. Let's say AI

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Speaker 1: does raise productivity. People are concerned that it'll leave humanity

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Speaker 1: behind and leave people behind. How do you ensure it

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Speaker 1: lifts wages and living standards and the just profits?

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Speaker 2: Look, I am reasonably optimistic about that point as well.

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Speaker 4: And I think most of the early evidence and then

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Speaker 4: some of the kind of forward-looking projections don't suggest that

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Speaker 4: this will be about replacing jobs. There'll certainly be some

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Speaker 4: jobs where a lot of the tasks could be replaced

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Speaker 4: and those are the kind of people that we will.

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Speaker 2: Have to think about transitioning.

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Speaker 4: So one question then is skills and training, particularly for

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Speaker 4: small and medium businesses where they don't put a lot

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Speaker 4: of money and resources into training workers, partly because they're

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Speaker 4: constrained financially and in terms of capacities. We think government

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Speaker 4: support is warranted there to help make sure that people

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Speaker 4: have the skills that they're going to need in that

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Speaker 4: new world. And then I think the kind of broader

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Speaker 4: piece on competition matters.

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Speaker 2: Here as well that you raised before. We want to

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Speaker 2: have competitive markets for products and services.

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Speaker 4: Then that human element, which will be in demand, I believe,

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Speaker 4: people will continue to compete for talent in the way

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Speaker 4: they do now. So I think those things together, making

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Speaker 4: sure that people have the right skills and then making

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Speaker 4: sure that markets have a good level of competition should

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Speaker 4: make sure that some of those productivity benefits are flowing

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Speaker 4: through to people.

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Speaker 1: So despite this stagnation, Danielle, Australia's economy has largely managed

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Speaker 1: to keep growing because we've added more people to it,

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Speaker 1: which has allowed us to mostly avoid confronting the productivity problem. Now,

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Speaker 1: all the major parties are promising cuts to immigration. What

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Speaker 1: does that mean if we don't improve productivity while cutting

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Speaker 1: immigration so drastically at the same time?

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Speaker 4: I think it will make the productivity challenge more stark,

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Speaker 4: as you're pointing to. So it's certainly rightly that our

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Speaker 4: economy has kept growing partly because of population growth. If

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Speaker 4: that rate of growth slows, businesses will feel it in

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Speaker 4: sales not rising as quickly. The government will feel it

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Speaker 4: in terms of their budget position. And so turning around

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Speaker 4: the equation on productivity growth will be even more front

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Speaker 4: and centre than it is now. I think nobody wants

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Speaker 4: to be in an economy that is going backwards. We

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Speaker 4: know recessions are terrible because of the impacts, particularly on

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Speaker 4: labour markets and employment, but also the broader impacts on

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Speaker 4: standard of living. And so, you know, I think this

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Speaker 4: productivity challenge is already to some degree front of centre,

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Speaker 4: but it may become even more so in a world

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Speaker 4: where we're somewhat turning the taps off on the migration program.

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Speaker 1: And the consequences are high, aren't they? If we don't

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Speaker 1: boost innovation and turn its productivity trend around, it has

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Speaker 1: significant ramifications for current and future generations.

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Speaker 2: Exactly right.

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Speaker 4: I think we all want to be in a world

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Speaker 4: where we think we're leaving our kids a better place and,

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Speaker 4: you know, where they've got a shot if they work

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Speaker 4: hard to earn more than what we did. So I

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Speaker 4: think that's important. And there's a whole lot of other

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Speaker 4: things that sit beside that, you know, our capacity to

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Speaker 4: deliver the housing that we need, our capacity to build

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Speaker 4: out the electricity and energy system that we're going to

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Speaker 4: need for cheaper, cleaner power. all of those things have

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Speaker 4: kind of productivity challenges at their heart. But, you know,

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Speaker 4: I do think about it both in terms of making

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Speaker 4: it easier for life for Australians now. We want our

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Speaker 4: wages to be moving, but really importantly for leaving the

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Speaker 4: world a better place for the next generation.

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Speaker 1: Danielle, thank you so much for speaking with us.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me.

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Speaker 6: Also in the news, the Federal Court has overturned an

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Speaker 6: Aboriginal protection order that halted a billion dollar coal mine

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Speaker 6: in New South Wales. Former Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek approved

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Speaker 6: the order after being asked by the traditional owners to

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Speaker 6: protect the site, which is central to their creation stories.

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Speaker 7: But a judge found the order invalid.

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Speaker 6: The proposal will now be sent back to the current

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Speaker 6: Environment Minister, Murray Watt, for redetermination. And Labor Prime Minister

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Speaker 6: Anne Ali has revealed she's received 19 death.

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Speaker 7: Threats in the past week alone.

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Speaker 6: It's after Opposition MP Angie Bell told Parliament Ali should

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Speaker 6: be shamed and stoned in the square over a decision

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Speaker 6: made by the Tax Office to ban credit card payments.

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Speaker 6: Ali says the comments, which were later withdrawn, were racist

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Speaker 6: and misogynistic.

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Speaker 7: I'm Ruby Jones. This is 7am. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 6: You