1 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,719 Speaker 1: This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,239 Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. I'm 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: Michael Thompson from Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. 4 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:15,400 Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean. 5 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: Our weekend show is all about the two of us, 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: each nominating what we think is the biggest business story 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 1: of the week, the most remarkable business story, a sleeper story, 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: and our favorite business related story. And it's a competition. 9 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: We need a winner. So every week we are joined 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: by a judge to choose that winner according to a 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: set of ever changing criteria, and that judges our Fear 12 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: and Greed colleague Adam Lang Adam, good morning. 13 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 3: Good morning, Michael, Good morning Sean. 14 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: What are the criteria this week, Adam? 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 3: This week? 16 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 4: Topicality, timeliness, economic impact, of course, pure subjective bias, and 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 4: a bit of melodrama, if you please. 18 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 1: But they're not evenly waited? Are they were? 19 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 3: The supposed to be? In my head? There evenly waited? 20 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: Do you know it's always and therein lies the problem. 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 2: Do you know what's always evenly weighted is the actual 22 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: scores Adam gives so he can trash something that I've 23 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 2: done and love something that Michael's done. And Michael gets 24 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,720 Speaker 2: twenty three out of twenty five and I get twenty 25 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 2: two out of twenty five. Actually, I'd actually like Adam 26 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: to grow a little bit of courage, be prepared to 27 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: say that is a crap that's like less than part 28 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: less than power would be less than twelve and a 29 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 2: half out of twenty five. Adam, I want to see 30 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 2: some grunt from you. 31 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 3: Oh okay, gee, all right, go Savage. 32 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 2: Drop them mister nice guy stuff, get onto what. 33 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 3: Full contact? 34 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: Judging great, enough of this dribble, Let's get on with it. 35 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: Biggest story of the week Sean take it. 36 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: Away in the absence of any major economic story, which 37 00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: I wouldn't do anyway, because I've sworn off economic stories 38 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: for the year. There was only one big story this week, 39 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 2: one big story. And I know because every day I 40 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: sit down and write scripts, so I know when there's 41 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 2: only one big story. Rio Tinto's bid for Lithium Group 42 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 2: arcadium lithium, Why is it a big story? Number one? 43 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: Mister lang made you take over on the ax. Haven't 44 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 2: had one all year? REO bid nine point nine billion 45 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 2: dollars for arcadium. The border by Arcadium said okay, now 46 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 2: it goes to shareholders, it seems likely to get their approval. 47 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 2: Little disappointed that we didn't have a little more doing 48 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 2: and throwing, a little more fighting, all that sort of stuff. 49 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: It wouldn't be much better. 50 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 2: For we journalists talk about. However, it does seem like 51 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 2: he's going to go ahead. We just haven't had one 52 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 2: like this. I mean air Trunk twenty billion plus deal 53 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: was big, but air Trunk wasn't listed and BHP bid 54 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: for Ango American it failed. We had al tim was 55 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: sailed to a Japanese group for nine point one billion, 56 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 2: but even that was just like in private enterprise buying 57 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 2: a local company. So it's the only real takeover stoush 58 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: of any size we've had all year. Really important. Second 59 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 2: big deal for Rio Tinto, which still makes the vast 60 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 2: majority of its money from iron ore minds, and some 61 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 2: of them are aging. This is a big tilt into lithium, 62 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: particularly in Argentina, where Rio already has a mind. It 63 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 2: helps the company diversify its business, which is very important 64 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 2: for Rio. Arcadium lithium is expected to produce about five 65 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 2: percent of the world's lithium next year. Hence Rio becomes 66 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 2: a major lithium producer. It's big for lithium as well. 67 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 2: That's silvery white metal extra point. Forew adam do you 68 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 2: know lithium symbol on the periodic table? Oh God, it's 69 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 2: about as obvious as it could be. 70 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: It's not l I is it? 71 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 2: Ah, look at that genius. 72 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 3: Thank God for that. 73 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 2: So the price of itthium went from twenty thousand US 74 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 2: sol has a ton of about six hundred thousand US 75 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: dollars a ton less than two years ago. Now it's 76 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 2: back down to seventy five thousand dollars a ton. There's 77 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: been less demand, more supply, experts reckon. That will write 78 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 2: itself in the next couple of years. This deal shows 79 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 2: that faith has not been lost in lithium and that 80 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 2: is good for Australia. It's also big for other lithium 81 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 2: stocks like Resources are in the mining Linetown Resources, I 82 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 2: g O all those companies. Big big deal. Finally a serious, 83 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 2: successful takeover on the a SX, biggest of the year, 84 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 2: biggest story of the week. Michael. 85 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: When you busted out the we haven't had any other 86 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: takeovers this year, I'm like, oh, is that right? 87 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 3: Is right? 88 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:32,840 Speaker 2: Right? 89 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: I felt like the moderators in the in like the 90 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 1: Trump furiously fact checking as you were as you were 91 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: going just googling, googling, and unfortunately time beat me and 92 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: I wasn't able to correct you. So I'm going to 93 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: assume that you are one hundred percent correct. 94 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 2: Dog whistle politics, Michael. Just mentioning it puts it down 95 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: in the judge's mind. Seed, I get two extra points 96 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,799 Speaker 2: because Adam got l I right from the periodic table. 97 00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: What the heck that doesn't work works for me? No, no, 98 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: I object. The biggest story this week is there's really 99 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: only one contender this week, and that. 100 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 2: Is there is You're right, totally, I did it. 101 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: That is Sean. This stark reality that is facing so 102 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: many businesses in Australia. Company insolvencies we heard this week 103 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: have hit a record high. Can you get any more boring, Sean, 104 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: It's not boring for those companies that are affected by this. 105 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: Stay on track, Michael. 106 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 2: Focus, I am. Don't let me put you off. 107 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: And you know what, I can get through this in 108 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: one minute if you just zip your lip. 109 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: Just the time starts now. 110 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 1: You are the only reason that I have been delayed. 111 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 1: This is on you. Company insolvencies record high, six hundred 112 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: firms failing in just six months. Let's take a look 113 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: at at the sectors that are struggling most, and you 114 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: actually see just how broad this is. Construction, accommodation and 115 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: food services, retail trade, professional, scientific and technical services, manufacturing. 116 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: It is everywhere, it is right across the board. This 117 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: is major. What is causing it? We all know the 118 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 1: answer to this high inflation, high interest rate. One minute 119 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: of the list. It's an environment. It's an environment where 120 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: people aren't spending money. Everything is costing more. Businesses don't 121 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 1: have enough cash flow. 122 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: Helps using help the listener, come on, interrupt him, help 123 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 2: the list I stayed quiet for a minute, and I'll 124 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 2: tell you what I was asleep. 125 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,679 Speaker 4: All Right, You've asked me to be a full contact judge, 126 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 4: and I'm going rogue. 127 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 3: Sean wins. Michael, I'm cutting you off there and finished. 128 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 2: That is the best decision you have ever made. 129 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 4: I'm very uncomfortable with this new disposition, but I'm going 130 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 4: to try and embrace it, at least with this show. 131 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 2: I just I love Michael's face right now. We must 132 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: put the video. He's just happy, frestfallen. 133 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, Sean green energy, opportunistic timing, massive global play, big numbers, 134 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 4: really bold. I love what Rio Tinto's done here, and 135 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 4: it does for me quite by daylight. Take away the 136 00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 4: company insolency story. So sorry, Michael, it was a merciful thing. 137 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 2: It is a mercy killing on behalf of the listeners. 138 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 2: Thank you, Adam, thank you. Come on, Michael, say something. 139 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 2: Oh he is very creaky, isn't it. 140 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 1: I'm not going to say anything. 141 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 3: I'm going back on time. 142 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: No, no, no, no no, I'm just going to allow the 143 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: listeners to realize how boring this show is without me. 144 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: Just let the two of you just crap on for 145 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: a little bit and then we'll see how important that is. 146 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 3: An excellent recovery picture. 147 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: A tricycle, right there is one. There is one big 148 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: wheel and two little wheels. You are the two little wheels. 149 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: I am the big wheel on this tricycle. Without me, 150 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: you are a lame bike god. 151 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 2: Without any one of us, Michael, we're lame. And I 152 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 2: want you to know that you will get twenty two 153 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 2: to twenty three out of twenty five for that story 154 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 2: that you just cut off on. 155 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 4: Oh no, I'm taking a different approach this time. Could 156 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 4: be twenty one on. 157 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 2: It'll be Payback. 158 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: I wholeheartedly object. I completely disagree with this. Like the 159 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: fact is that I had a lot of others. I 160 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: had the Cosbowl report, I had the Banjo Loans research 161 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: to go into it. I had all these other bits 162 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 1: and pieces that were going to illustrate just how tough 163 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: it is for small businesses, because really this was a 164 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: small business story. 165 00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 2: But you know what, I think the. 166 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: Big end of town has spoken, Adam, You've made your decision. 167 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: You just don't care. 168 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: Most remarkable story, Michael K for it. 169 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: What I find remarkable. Number one is Adam's judging, and 170 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 1: number two is this story. The fact that consumers sent 171 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: him is improving. 172 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 2: Hold the front page, consumer sentiment remarkable. 173 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 3: Improving by improving, do you mean less bad? Michael? 174 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: It's a big spike this week. But I think I've 175 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: said enough. That's it over to you, Sewan all over excellent. 176 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 2: I like it when he gets cranky. 177 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: Because nothing actually raps me out quite like a good 178 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:30,839 Speaker 1: consumer sentiment report, right, And it's remarkable. It is particularly 179 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: remarkable that consumers are feeling good because everyone thinks interest 180 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 1: rates are going to come back down soon. The RBA 181 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: has said nothing like that. There is nothing in what 182 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: the RBA has said that actually suggests that is the case. 183 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 1: But this week the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer center An 184 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: index shode a solid six percent lift in confidence in 185 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 1: the economy. That is the best reading in ages. Maybe maybe, 186 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: and these are the things that maybe consumers are getting 187 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: sited about. Inflation dropping, yes, okay, even though underlying inflation 188 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: and the one that really matters is still not within 189 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: the RBA's target band. Maybe they are boyd Maybe they 190 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: are positively just bubbling about how resilient the labor market is. 191 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 1: That's a possibility. If you want a job, you can 192 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: get one. Maybe consumers are just following the herd. They 193 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 1: are seeing the US dropping rate rates, They are seeing 194 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,559 Speaker 1: New Zealand dropping rates. This week, New Zealand slashed rates 195 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: by fifty basis points. They assume that because everyone else is, 196 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: we are next. The Reserve Bank hasn't said that. The 197 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank has said, no, we'll run our own race here. 198 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: Business confidence is up to according to the NAB Business 199 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:40,080 Speaker 1: Survey Business Conditions as well. I think it is truly 200 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: remarkable right that there is this growing optimism with both 201 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 1: consumers and business despite the ongoing pessimism of the Reserve 202 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: Bank that rates could still actually go either way. 203 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 2: I actually think I think that this story makes insolvency 204 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 2: sound okay. 205 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: Well, have you considered, Sean, have you considered that maybe 206 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 1: consumers are just happier because it's spring, because it's warm. 207 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: Everyone gets a little bit happier when the days are longer, 208 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: when it's a little bit warmer, when summer is around 209 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: the corner, when you can start drinking more because it's warmer. 210 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 3: I don't know what, fluids in general, Yeah. 211 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, generally more fluids. Has anyone considered that that the 212 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: spike in consumer sentiment is actually just because miserable consumers 213 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 1: for once, for the first time in probably six long months, 214 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: have seen the sun. There is a seasonal element to this, 215 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: and no one is considering it, which is not actually 216 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: the remarkable part of the story. The rest of it 217 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: is remarkable. The fact that consumers are so positive and 218 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: businesses are so positive now when the RBA has given 219 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: them absolutely nothing to be positive about. I find that 220 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: quite remarkable. Sean. 221 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 2: Hmmm, I don't know what to say after that that 222 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 2: you you're cranky, Michael, You're just that sort of I'm 223 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 2: not taking prisoners. I'm going for it. You've just tried 224 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 2: to make a very very ordinary story remarkable, Adam. What 225 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 2: I have is a remarkable story, and it's actually almost disturbing. 226 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 2: Well maybe it's not. Maybe I'm just putting my own 227 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 2: value judgment on this story, so I can't get sort 228 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 2: of through it. It is remarkable how easy it is 229 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: to invest in war now there are always movies about 230 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 2: the dodgy characters running guns. Nowadays, you don't need to hide. 231 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 2: Some of the world's biggest ETF providers have started offering 232 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: defense ETFs as in defense exchange traded funds. There's three 233 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 2: of them on the ASX now. Basically they're capitalizing on 234 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 2: heightened international tensions and booming military spending. So there's global 235 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 2: X Beta shares and v Neck. Vneck listed aversion last month, 236 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 2: global EXPETA shares this week. Global defense spending it's about 237 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 2: two point four trillion US. It's going to reach both 238 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 2: twenty thirty three point one trillion US. That's according to 239 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 2: the Stockholm International Peace Search Institute. So why not invest 240 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 2: in it? It kind of has these uncomfortable undertones for me, 241 00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 2: though I kind of get that other people don't worry 242 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 2: about that. So what it is you buy this ETF. 243 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,679 Speaker 2: It provides exposure to up to sixty companies. In b 244 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 2: to Sharre's case, those companies drive at least half their 245 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 2: revenues from the development and manufacture of military and defense equipment, 246 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 2: so BAE systems, general dynamics like Eied, Martin, etc. And 247 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 2: ETF is definitely a way of spreading your risk. I 248 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 2: just think it's quite remarkable how quickly these products are developed, 249 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 2: I suppose, given what's going on in the Middle East 250 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 2: and Ukraine, and just how easy it is to invest 251 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 2: in war. No value judgment. I'm trying to do this 252 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 2: story without a value judgment on it. But yeah, I 253 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 2: just think it's quite remarkable. 254 00:13:54,160 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: I think it's really uncomfortable wealthy judgment. Oh God, But 255 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 1: you can you can see why there's been a rise 256 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: in ethical investing, can't. As soon as you have kind 257 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: of these these kinds of things coming up and all 258 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: of a sudden you are forced to make some very 259 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 1: kind of clear decisions about where you want your money 260 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: to go and what you want your money to do, 261 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 1: And you can see why there has been a rise 262 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: in ethical investing because of that. Anyway, I'm happy to 263 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: make a value judgment here. 264 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 2: So I actually think gaming is a tricky one for 265 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 2: me because personally I don't mind gaming. But then you 266 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 2: know the person next to me, Michael, had known about you, 267 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 2: with you or not. But like, people hate gaming, and 268 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 2: so they say, what's the difference? But defense, I just 269 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 2: think is the next like actually building machines to kill people. 270 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: I find that a bit difficult, and it's it is 271 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: it is why then ethical funds are so are such 272 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: complicated things, aren't they? Because it is. It is an 273 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: entire fund built around a very, very subjective kind of decision. 274 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 1: And I was I was speaking with one investor who 275 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: said they are a little bit wary of ethical funds 276 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: because of that, because there are so many decisions that 277 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: are required to be made, and they are made by 278 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: someone whose exact judgments might not align with your own, 279 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 1: and because of that things can be excluded, and that 280 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: it may be a better approach just to invest in 281 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:17,880 Speaker 1: something that makes a lot of money and then put 282 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: that money towards the causes that you feel passionately about, 283 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: or it's a fascinating kind of topic. 284 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 2: Or you could be a shareholder and you decide to 285 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 2: actually engage with an organization which is changing, like Origin Energy, 286 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 2: therefore that you think that's ethical, or like BHP. This 287 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 2: week Norge's Bank, which is a Norwegian sovereign fund, they 288 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 2: actually decided to put BHP back in to their okay list. 289 00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 2: They were on the outer because of BHP's got out 290 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 2: of coal mining. It's fascinating area anyway, Adam over to you. 291 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 4: It is fascinating, remarkable, even so somewhat controversially, Michael wins. 292 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 3: On this one. 293 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 4: The consumer sentiment rows six points, but it's still well 294 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 4: below the neutral of one hundred. It's not even at 295 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 4: ninety points, and so we have as short as think, 296 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 4: as you've said, a number of times, we're still gloomy. 297 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: Business is gloomy too. It's at minus two. 298 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: Consumers are miserable, bathards, I think that's my phrase. 299 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 3: Okay, got it. 300 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 4: And the RBA still has a watching brief as to 301 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 4: whether or not interest rates can come down. Now obviously 302 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 4: that is because inflation is so so sticky. So for 303 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 4: me that all those things are remarkable, the great disconnect 304 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 4: between how we're feeling and how the RBA has to 305 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 4: do its job. 306 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: Well done, Michael, thank you, Adam, good decision. Shall we 307 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: take a quick break and we will come back on 308 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: the other side and find a sleeper story of the week, Sean, 309 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: We're looking for a sleeper story. A sleeper stories, of course, 310 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: one that's flying under the radar a little bit, and 311 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: one that's not getting the attention that we feel that deserves. 312 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: I'm not optimistic about mine. You go first way to 313 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 1: sell it in Ah, you know what, I've lost my confidence. 314 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,160 Speaker 2: Aldon, you won that you won the last category. 315 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, but it feels like that was like 316 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 1: a bit of a pity point. 317 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 2: Because even you, even you think you shouldn't have won it. 318 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,719 Speaker 1: No, I agree that I should have won. I just 319 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: I feel as though there might be what be called 320 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: judges remorse. 321 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 2: My sleeper story. 322 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: Let's just sleep a story. 323 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: Absolutely none of us, none of us have been paying 324 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: attention to this whatsoever. Residential real estate in Australia Yep. 325 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 2: While we weren't watching, the value of residential real estate 326 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 2: in Australia pushed beyond eleven trillion tr I doubly a lie. 327 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 2: I am in trillion dollars for the first time, up 328 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 2: almost a trillion dollars over the last year. It would 329 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 2: have been more but for slow growth in home values 330 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 2: over the September quarter. But basically, the end your pace 331 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 2: is about six point seven percent. Twelve months earlier, the 332 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 2: end your pace was nine point was almost ten percent. 333 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 2: In fact, we've got Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth values 334 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 2: at record highs. The market's cooling, no doubt about it. 335 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 2: Days on markets increased to thirty two days in the 336 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: September quarter, up from twenty nine days in the Dune quarter. 337 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,919 Speaker 2: There's more vendor discounting going on. The number of listings 338 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 2: are above historical averages. But eleven trillion dollars now, the 339 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,879 Speaker 2: superce sector, supernuation sector is heading towards four trillion dollars, 340 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 2: so the homes across the country almost three times that. 341 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 2: We never talk about housing ever anywhere. Today we are 342 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:50,880 Speaker 2: the sleeper story eleven trillion dollars, by far the most 343 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 2: valuable asset across the land. What a cracking sleeper story. 344 00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 2: Eleven trillion dollars. 345 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,680 Speaker 1: And you don't believe in that, dar, No. 346 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 2: Absolutely not. But the great thing about this is that 347 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: I have at least a fifty percent chance of winning 348 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 2: because it's got a big number. 349 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: Possibly greater than Look, this week another sleeper story. 350 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 2: This is the one that you're confident about. 351 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 1: Look, I wouldn't have thought this was a sleeper story 352 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: until I heard what Sean did. By comparison, mine is like, yeah, 353 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: I'm fine, I am on dred percent. Okay. Now, this 354 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: week we received an extraordinary insight into an absolute crisis 355 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: for Australian investors crisis the IPO market. The IPO market 356 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,439 Speaker 1: is in the doldrums, and this week we learned just 357 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 1: how truly shockingly bad it is. New listings have fallen 358 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: to their weakest pace in fifteen years. That's one and 359 00:19:56,359 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: a half decades, fifteen years long time. The analysis. 360 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 2: You really don't have much confidence in this story when 361 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 2: you start saying stuff like that, but go on, this 362 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 2: is fun. No. 363 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,679 Speaker 1: Remember there are families listening to this, and there are 364 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: young kids. They might be going, oh mum, how long 365 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: is fifteen years? And luckily I was here to point 366 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 1: out that just one and a half decades. So I'm 367 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: doing it for the kids, Jean. 368 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 3: Because that'll make much more sense to kids. 369 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: Well, it might just back to your back to your spreadsheet. 370 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,199 Speaker 1: The analysis that we had this week, that's been a 371 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 1: bit of a sleeper story hasn't really been getting much attention. 372 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,199 Speaker 1: Revealed this week, there were just fifteen floats in the 373 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:44,199 Speaker 1: first nine months of this year. The last time things 374 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: were this bad, right, we were in the middle of 375 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: the GFC. Susan Boyle was going viral with her audition 376 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,239 Speaker 1: on Britain's Got Talent. So you picture when you were 377 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 1: watching her sing I dreamed a dream, and that was 378 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 1: when this was bad. 379 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 2: This is one of your old tricks, Michael, when you 380 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 2: don't really think there's much of a story, You just 381 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 2: find out how many years it's been and then you 382 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 2: tell us all about what was going on. 383 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 3: It's like a history lesson on this day. 384 00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 2: And without without demeaning your story. I kind of like 385 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: it when you do it, because often it's much more 386 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 2: interesting than the story. Susan Boyle, I dream a dream. 387 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 1: And I guarantee as soon as we finish this, you're 388 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: going to go and watch that now on YouTube, just 389 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: because it's one of those special moments. Right, oh, glorious, 390 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: don't go any further because we'll have to pay for 391 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 1: the coffee. Right. But Adam is kind of like Simon 392 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: cow as a judge. 393 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 2: Simon is a bit like that. He kind of picked like, 394 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 2: wasn't Simon Cowell? He picked the one direction boys, the 395 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 2: five of them put them together even though they didn't win. 396 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: Britain's got talenta revem. Yeah, I Reckon Adam could do that. 397 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 2: For podcasting, I Reckon Adam could pick the three or 398 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 2: four or five or six podcasts. I mean boring, it'd 399 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 2: be all tax reform. 400 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 3: He's got podcasts. 401 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,719 Speaker 2: Well, he's got tax reform or something like that. 402 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 3: More like great idea. 403 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 2: Michael, Sorry, I forgot you here. Gone. 404 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,399 Speaker 1: That's fine. I was just talking about, like the GFC, 405 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: one of the biggest kind of financial events in history. 406 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,400 Speaker 1: That's fine if you just want to kind of spear 407 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: off in your own direction. But that was a long 408 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 1: time ago, right, That was a long long time ago. 409 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: That was fifteen years, one and a half decades. As 410 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: we discussed, we are not in another GFC. So what 411 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,679 Speaker 1: is causing this problem now? It is fascinating, isn't it. 412 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: I mean in just nine months, in nine months this year, 413 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 1: nine whole months, which is what three quarters of a 414 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: full year? 415 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 2: What are we talking about again? 416 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,440 Speaker 1: I've touched we're talking about IPOs just seven hundred and 417 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 1: twenty million dollars has been raised just seven hundred and 418 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:55,160 Speaker 1: twenty million. That's seventy two percent of a billion with Goosmani. 419 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: That's right, isn't it? Yes, it is, with Goozmany going 420 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: as the highest profile IPO during that time, raising just 421 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 1: three hundred and thirty five million. One of the big issues, 422 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: as Sean pointed out to us this week, in a 423 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,959 Speaker 1: very kind of sleepery kind of way, is the flood 424 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 1: of private money buying up assets. Think the big super 425 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: funds like Australian Super and Australian Retirement Trust, which are 426 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 1: just growing and growing and growing and growing, and they've 427 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 1: got billions of dollars that they need to invest. They 428 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 1: need to put it somewhere, so companies are being bought 429 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: before they even can make it to the ax. It 430 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 1: is a sleeper story because for so long there's been 431 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: talk of a problem, kind of whispers in corridors going 432 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 1: it's not much happening in IPOs that kind of thing now, 433 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 1: But now we know how bad it is. And with 434 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 1: these big funds continuing to grow and other big international 435 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 1: investors circling, things aren't going to get any better. Where 436 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 1: are retail investors supposed to put their money. What's this 437 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: mean for the future of the ASX. These are all 438 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: all great questions that I'm asking existential threats. They certainly are. 439 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: So I'd say that data this week has blown this 440 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 1: story wide open. It has lit the fuse, which has 441 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,439 Speaker 1: certainly gone around the wrong way. There that the future 442 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: has been lit then, but I'm going to stick with it. 443 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:15,440 Speaker 3: The fuse. 444 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 1: Fuse has been lit, adam. 445 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 4: So the fuse has been lit on residential real estate 446 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 4: for me this week, the reason being an amalgam of factors, 447 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 4: if you like. It is so rare that I can 448 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 4: talk about the opportunity for reform in one of your stories. 449 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 4: But there might be tax reform of a very significant nature, 450 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 4: Sean you talked about. The May election is probably on 451 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 4: the cards for next year, and property capital gains tax 452 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 4: and negative gearing are both on the agenda with a 453 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 4: possibility that something might be proposed this time. And so 454 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 4: for me, the value of residential real estate, people struggling 455 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 4: to get into the market, and its political appetite all 456 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: make this a very richly story this week. 457 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 2: It certainly is because none of us have ever thought 458 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 2: about any of that stuff before, and now we have 459 00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:06,679 Speaker 2: this week. 460 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 1: This is exact, This is an extra. 461 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 3: Fuse has been lift. 462 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 1: The fuse has been left on Adam's credibility being shot 463 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: as a judge this week, this week, this isn't. This 464 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: is an eraordinary disease. 465 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 2: What you don't realize, Adam, is that after the show, 466 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 2: at some point, when Michael and I will talk to 467 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: each other, you know, sort of on Monday morning, when 468 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 2: we catch up again without you, we'll go can you 469 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 2: believe what he did on Saturday? I don't know how 470 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 2: I won that. We behind your back, laugh at your 471 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 2: your judgment. 472 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 4: Openly point and laugh at my judgments. That is welcome feedback. 473 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 4: The crisis for astrained investors. It's been going on and 474 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 4: on and on, Michael. So, yes, it's fifteen years, but 475 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 4: it has been happening for some time. 476 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: Unlike property growth. 477 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 2: Yeah that's right. 478 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 1: So houses grew for the first time this week, but 479 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: but IPOs have been dropping for some time. 480 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 2: Right. I think it's a favorite favorite story. 481 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: Let's move on to the favorite story. You go first, 482 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:20,159 Speaker 1: all right, So this story is about Adam wait for it, 483 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: creative tax policy. I'm just going to say, I'll see 484 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: myself out. 485 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 2: And it comes from Portugal. Background to this, we found 486 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 2: out this week that Elon Musk, according to the Bloomberg 487 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 2: Billionaires Index, is now worth two hundred and fifty six 488 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 2: billion US dollars now. Just as an aside, eight of 489 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 2: the ten richest people of tech barons combined eight this 490 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 2: year so far have made two hundred and sixty five 491 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 2: billion US dollars, which brings me straight, sort of in 492 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 2: a funny way, to Portugal. Portugal's annual GDP is around 493 00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:03,360 Speaker 2: the same as Elon's wealth, about the same level as 494 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 2: those eight tech barons have made this year. Right, this 495 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 2: is a country that is struggling. The Portuguese government wants 496 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 2: to do something about it. It wants to turn Portugal 497 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 2: into a low tax haven for young people by offering 498 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 2: basically ten years of tax breaks to people starting their 499 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 2: careers in an effort to halt the growing brain drain. 500 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 2: So the whole idea is, you finish high school or 501 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 2: you finish university in Portugal rather than getting a higher 502 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 2: paid job in the UK or Germany or somewhere like that, 503 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 2: you end up staying in Portugal and in that first 504 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 2: year of work you do not pay tax, and then 505 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,640 Speaker 2: over ten years you slowly pay more and more tax 506 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 2: till after ten years you are paying the same amount 507 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,120 Speaker 2: amount of taxes everyone else. Presumably by then you've got 508 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 2: deep roots into your own community, and you know, maybe 509 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 2: kids may be married, you stay there. I just think 510 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 2: it's quite a genius idea. Portugal is one of the 511 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 2: poorest economies in Western Europe, and Prime Minister Louis Montenegro 512 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 2: said the government seeking to tackle the combination of higher texas, 513 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 2: low wages and high housing costs that are driving highly 514 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 2: educated young people out of the country. He wants to 515 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:12,960 Speaker 2: keep more people in the country. He wants a tax 516 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:17,400 Speaker 2: system that is more youth friendly. What a genius story. 517 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 2: It's got tax reform, it's got looking after the young, 518 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 2: the kiddies, it's got innovation. I mean, he's still got 519 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 2: to get through Parliament a few little minor issues like that. 520 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 2: But I just thought, well, according to the ft that 521 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 2: was writing this story, it is unprecedented. No country has 522 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 2: ever put forward something like this. This is serious tax reform. 523 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 2: Favorite story, Michael. 524 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,760 Speaker 1: That's a good one. That is a good one, and 525 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 1: Adam is just salivating, brimming with glee. So look, my 526 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 1: favorite story, My favorite story is a little bit probably 527 00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:52,400 Speaker 1: a little bit more subdued, but it's more for everyone 528 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: than just for you, Adam, because our love affair we're 529 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: smartphones right, is getting out of control and these stats 530 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: are extraord ordinary. Nearly four million smartphones were sold in 531 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: Australia in the first half of twenty twenty four. That's 532 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: up eight percent from a year ago, and this smartphone 533 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: analyst tell site expects that number to hit eight point 534 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: seven million units for the full year, which is just 535 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 1: ridiculous and as kind of Sean pointed out on the 536 00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 1: podcast through the week, there are twenty six million people 537 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 1: in the country, which suggests that one in three people 538 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 1: will be getting a new phone this year. I haven't 539 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 1: got a new phone this year, Adam. I suspect you 540 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 1: haven't got a new phone this year, Sean. Have you 541 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: got a new phone this year? 542 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 2: No? 543 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: I do not, you don't exactly. My point is the 544 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 1: fact that none of us have. What I am suggesting 545 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,959 Speaker 1: is that this number has been skewed by a small 546 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 1: number of people having vastly more than one phone. And 547 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: this would include obviously drug dealers having multiple phones in 548 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,800 Speaker 1: order to keep track of their various deals. It would 549 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 1: include love rats. 550 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 2: Oh, love rats. Yes, yeah, no, that's good. 551 00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: Multiple relationships going on multiple phone might have eight or 552 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,920 Speaker 1: nine indeed, and generally people who have got something to hide. 553 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: Right now, a few interesting stats for you. Android phones 554 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: have accounted for fifty six percent of phone sales this year, 555 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: compared to forty four percent for Apple. In twenty twenty two, 556 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,760 Speaker 1: the number of active mobile phones, so phones in use 557 00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: worldwide passed the number of people on the planet. Right, 558 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: So there were more phones than people on the planet 559 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. And then if we go back 560 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: even further, and this is my favorite part, the first 561 00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 1: mobile phone call ever was made just over fifty years ago, 562 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy three, and it was made by Motorola 563 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,960 Speaker 1: engineer Martin Cooper from a street in New York. And 564 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 1: you know who he called. He could have called his wife. 565 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:58,040 Speaker 1: He could have called his colleagues, his assistant, perhaps the president. 566 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 1: He could have called the president. He could have called 567 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,520 Speaker 1: his parents to say, Mom, Dad, I've done it. No, 568 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,320 Speaker 1: he didn't. He called Joel Engel at Bell Labs, his 569 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 1: chief rival, the person he was racing in order to 570 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 1: develop the first mobile phone. It would have to be 571 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 1: one of the pettiest things I think I've ever heard. 572 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 1: He called up Joel and said, Joel, this is Marty. 573 00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 1: I'm calling you from a cell phone, a real handheld 574 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 1: portable cell phone. And you can just imagine how poor 575 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 1: Joel would have reacted. What a way to rub it in. 576 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 1: And it has got to be one of the most 577 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: petty things I think I've ever heard. 578 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 2: That is brilliant. 579 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 1: It is good, isn't it. I'll discovered that while researching. 580 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, oh, it's just a perfect little tidbit 581 00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 1: from history. There you go, Adam, what do you reckon? Gee? 582 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,520 Speaker 4: You know, tax reform, the genius of this proposal in 583 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:08,560 Speaker 4: Portugal and smartphones and a man called Engel Michael Wins. 584 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: I really thought personal bias would win out there. 585 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 2: What I do find interesting is that might happen this 586 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 2: week and yours happened in nineteen seventy three. 587 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 1: But that's okay, yeah, yeah, but you know what the 588 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 1: decisions mate. 589 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 3: Favorite story of the week. I think it's staggering. Eight 590 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 3: point seven million phones this year. Yeah, it's a lot 591 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 3: in our country. 592 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:34,000 Speaker 4: It's unbelievable, And what a massive business this is. 593 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 1: So many love rats like it's just Adam to too 594 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:41,960 Speaker 1: so what was the final score? 595 00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 3: To all, I've been a little bit more savage. 596 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 4: I've gone a little bit rogue, not entirely on my scoring, 597 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 4: so I've been quite harsh at times. Michael eighty one points, 598 00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,480 Speaker 4: Sean eighty four points. 599 00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 2: I feel sorry for you, Michael. I'm sorry. I apologize 600 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 2: for Adam's behavior today. 601 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 1: You did it, you started apology, you let him on 602 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: like schoolyard bullies. Today was a travesty. Thank you, Sean, 603 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 1: thank you Michael, and thank you Adam. 604 00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 3: Oh no, thank you. 605 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 2: Oh. 606 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us 607 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X Michael Thompson. 608 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: And that was fear and greed. Have a great weekend.