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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christinamio.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, March seven, twenty twenty five. Cyclone Alfred is

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Speaker 1: slowing down, but meteorologists are warning there could be a

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Speaker 1: rebound when the Category two storm reaches the mainland in

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Speaker 1: the early hours of Saturday morning. Experts say Alfred could

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Speaker 1: regather strength and smash Brisbane, the Gold Coast and parts

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Speaker 1: of northern New South Wales with dangerous rain and flash flooding,

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Speaker 1: and The Australian's chief political correspondent, Jeff Chambers says the

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Speaker 1: storm is eroding the Prime Minister's hopes of calling an

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Speaker 1: April twelve election. You can read his analysis right now

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Speaker 1: at the Australian dot com dot au. The Western Australian

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Speaker 1: branch of the Liberal Party have unveiled their official costings

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Speaker 1: just forty eight hours before voters go to the polls

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Speaker 1: in a state election. They're attempting to make up ground

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Speaker 1: following an historic defeat four years ago. In today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we get the lay of the land in WA and

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Speaker 1: unpack why the federal government is watching the results of

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Speaker 1: Saturday's vote so closely. During the COVID nineteen pandemic. Western

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Speaker 1: Australia became the envy of the world thanks to unmatched

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Speaker 1: geographical isolation, which protected it from the brunt of the virus.

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Speaker 1: Western Australia's borders are likely to remain shut until next year.

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Speaker 1: The WA Premier is planning to keep the clothes sign

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Speaker 1: up beyond the vaccination targets. In early twenty twenty, as

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Speaker 1: nations in Europe, Asia and the Americas scrambled to stop

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Speaker 1: the spread, Western Australia eliminated community transmission of the coronavirus,

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Speaker 1: a feat it mostly maintained until December of the following year.

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Speaker 1: As a result, the state's economy thrived, the jobs market boomed,

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Speaker 1: struction took off, and retail trade surged. In the midst

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Speaker 1: of it all, Western Australian voters returned the State Labor

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Speaker 1: Party to government in the most decisive win in Australian

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Speaker 1: electoral history.

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Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, I take great honor in introducing the

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Speaker 2: Premier of Western Australia, Mark McGowan.

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Speaker 1: There aren't many people who want to return to the

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Speaker 1: COVID era, but it's a victory. Mark McGowan's successor, Premier

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Speaker 1: Roger Cook, is hoping to replicate when West Australians go

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Speaker 1: to the polls on Saturday.

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Speaker 3: For Roger Cook and for the Labor government in Western Australia,

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Speaker 3: that really was the glory days.

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Speaker 1: Paul Garvey is a senior reporter in the Australian's Western

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Speaker 1: Australia Bureau.

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Speaker 3: That's when the borders came down and their popularity went

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Speaker 3: right up. That delivered them that spectacular twenty twenty one

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Speaker 3: election win, delivered Labor this unprecedented hold over both houses

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Speaker 3: of parliam and I think Roger Cook was really trying

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Speaker 3: to appeal to those memories that Western Australians have of

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Speaker 3: being kept safe in that era of Western Australia, getting

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Speaker 3: the attention and the respect that West Australians believe they

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Speaker 3: deserve from a national perspective, and also just reminding business

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Speaker 3: leaders that the state's mining industry had continued undisrupted through

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Speaker 3: that period, that the rivers of gold from that industry

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Speaker 3: had continued to flow. And so really it was about

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Speaker 3: just prompting the audience to not forget just who delivered

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Speaker 3: those glory days through that period and kept West Australian safe,

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Speaker 3: and it really has set the state up financially for

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Speaker 3: a very strong few years since.

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Speaker 1: Ironically, Roger Cook was the Health Minister when the pandemic

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Speaker 1: first struck, but stood down from the role following a

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Speaker 1: series of health system bungles. But that little hiccup doesn't

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Speaker 1: appear to have hurt Cook's popularity as premiere.

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Speaker 3: I think we can say with certainty that Roger Cook

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Speaker 3: won't be joining those ranks of labor leaders who have

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Speaker 3: lost their seats, lost their governments in the past few years.

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Speaker 3: He's been very mindful from a long way out about

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Speaker 3: this trend not so much against labor, but a trend

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Speaker 3: against incumbents that's been seen around Australian around the world.

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Speaker 3: He's been drilling that into his ministers and his colleagues,

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Speaker 3: that there is this trend in place and that they

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Speaker 3: shouldn't be taking anything for granted with this election. That said,

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Speaker 3: all the polling we've seen shows that Roger Cook can

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Speaker 3: expect to be pretty comfortably re elected on Saturday. There

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Speaker 3: will be some seats lost, there's no doubt about that,

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Speaker 3: but Roger Cook can certainly look forward to being returned

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Speaker 3: comfortably come Saturday night.

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Speaker 1: The twenty twenty one state election was historic for the

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Speaker 1: Western Australian Liberal Party too, but in the bad way.

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Speaker 4: Opposition leader Zach Kirkup lost his marginal electorate, becoming the

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Speaker 4: first WA major part party leader to lose their own

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Speaker 4: seat in eighty eight years. Labor is predicted to win

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Speaker 4: fifty three of the state's fifty nine lower House seats,

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Speaker 4: giving mister McGowan a super majority, Paul, what.

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Speaker 1: Went so wrong for the WA Liberals at the last

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Speaker 1: state election in twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 3: Look, there are a few things. A big one was

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Speaker 3: what we were talking about before, right, it was that

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Speaker 3: COVID success of Western Australia. But the Liberals certainly hadn't

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Speaker 3: helped themselves. They're a party that has been dogged by

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Speaker 3: a lot of infighting, a lot of leadership uncertainty, and

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Speaker 3: that has continued in opposition. It's also been marred by

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Speaker 3: this sense that the party has these dominating, controlling behind

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Speaker 3: the scenes figures, usually from the religious rights, very socially

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Speaker 3: conservative people, pushing views that they hold strongly and genuinely,

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Speaker 3: but which perhaps at the fringe of what of Middle

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Speaker 3: Australians would necessarily believe, and that has led the party

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Speaker 3: to be tad as one that's controlled by religious conservatives

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Speaker 3: who are out of step with the general public, and

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Speaker 3: so that's really hurt the party standing for some time.

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Speaker 3: It's still an issue that the party's dealing with today

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Speaker 3: and it's been interesting because we're talking about the shift

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Speaker 3: politically going on around the world and around Australia. People

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Speaker 3: inside the Liberal Party here feel like there's not a

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Speaker 3: whole lot of votes to be won by fighting a

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Speaker 3: culture war. For all that Trump may have done on

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Speaker 3: that regard, the Liberals are certainly in a difficult phase

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Speaker 3: of trying to find the right balance there, knowing that

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Speaker 3: a lot of their support base and a lot of

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Speaker 3: their actual MPs may be interested in those issues, but

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Speaker 3: that they really need to try to focus on the

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Speaker 3: middle and run a discipline campaign focused on those things

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Speaker 3: like health, law and order, like the cost of living

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Speaker 3: and housing, which we've heard so much about during this campaign.

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Speaker 2: Look, our candidates are working hard, the community is engaged.

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Speaker 2: We have a mountain to climb. We don't have the

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Speaker 2: resources of the Labor government. Of course, while they're playing

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Speaker 2: a game of distraction, we're focused on the issues that

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Speaker 2: Western Australians are talking to us about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we've heard that Roger Cook wants to return to

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Speaker 1: that kind of prosperity of the pandemic. What's the pitch

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Speaker 1: of WA Liberal Party leader Libby Metam to voters.

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Speaker 3: The big one of those four for Libby Metam has

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Speaker 3: been health. She's been the shadow Health spokeswomen for this

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Speaker 3: last period of opposition, so she's at her most comfortable

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Speaker 3: when she's pushing on that. And that's quite convenient for

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Speaker 3: the Liberal Party too, because health is one of those

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Speaker 3: areas where for all West Australia's success, most Western Straians

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Speaker 3: feel like their health system isn't functioning as well as

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Speaker 3: it should be. People can see and feel the wealth

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Speaker 3: in this state, yet they're not seeing that translate into

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Speaker 3: their health system. So Roger Cook, himself a former health minister,

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Speaker 3: has tried to pass the blame on this to the

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Speaker 3: federal government. But really most Wester Australians feel as though

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Speaker 3: the state government could be doing a lot more around health,

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Speaker 3: that our hospitals could be in much better shape and

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Speaker 3: living metament Liberals have really quite effectively made the most

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Speaker 3: of that.

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Speaker 1: Data from newspolls suggest the Libs could pick up ten

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Speaker 1: seats at Saturday's election. It's not enough to get them

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Speaker 1: back into government. Far from it, but it's an improvement

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Speaker 1: and it may go some of the way to getting

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Speaker 1: them back into the public's good graces.

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Speaker 3: There's been interesting talking to people out in the streets

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Speaker 3: over this campaign. You're not seeing a sense that there's

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Speaker 3: a mood for a change of government, but you do

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Speaker 3: hear a lot people saying we just want to make

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Speaker 3: sure there's a proper opposition. I think people here recognize

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Speaker 3: that a democratic system is not set up to be

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Speaker 3: a one party state. Regardless of your political persuasion. There's

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Speaker 3: a need to have a well organ eyes an effective

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Speaker 3: team on the other side, pushing back on ideas, scrutinizing policy,

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Speaker 3: and making sure that the outcomes are where they need

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Speaker 3: to be.

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Speaker 1: So where do they need to be?

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Speaker 3: This election isn't really about who's going to actually win

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Speaker 3: who's going to be the next premier. That's been set

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Speaker 3: in stone really since twenty twenty one effectively, So really

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Speaker 3: what we've all been trying to figure out is what

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Speaker 3: does a good result look like for the Liberals. The

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Speaker 3: people I talk to inside the party have been throwing

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Speaker 3: around ten as the magic number that looks like a

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Speaker 3: decent day at the office for the Liberals that would

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Speaker 3: give them that injection of new talent to build something

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Speaker 3: around going forward, and Newspole certainly says that they'll get

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Speaker 3: to that point, but not much further beyond it. Where

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Speaker 3: that becomes really interesting is around the future leadership of

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Speaker 3: the Liberal Party. Beyond this Saturday, it could end up

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Speaker 3: being a very good day for Basil Zemplus. Even though

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Speaker 3: Roger Cook will be the next premier, will get himself elected,

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Speaker 3: There'll be some decent talent coming in to join him,

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Speaker 3: and there won't be such a result that Libby can

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Speaker 3: demand or expect to be the one to take the

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Speaker 3: reins for the next four years. As well.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, why the federal government shouldn't put all its

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Speaker 1: eggs in the West Australian basket. It's long been speculated

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Speaker 1: that Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi would wait until after Western

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Speaker 1: Australia votes to call a federal election. It's easy to

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Speaker 1: see why the party's state branch is a shoe in

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Speaker 1: for a third consecutive term, and WA was vital in

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Speaker 1: delivering labor to government in twenty twenty two. But whatever

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Speaker 1: good will Roger Cook and his colleagues have garnered since then,

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Speaker 1: isn't necessarily felt towards the Feds.

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Speaker 5: Well, there are warning signs this morning for the Prime

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Speaker 5: Minister in the West. The latest News poll shows voters

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Speaker 5: who turned to Labour three years ago are already in

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Speaker 5: the mood for change. They didn't take long at all.

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Speaker 1: Here's Paul Garvey this morning.

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Speaker 3: It's been interesting that we have now been through this

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Speaker 3: entire campaign and we haven't had a single visit here

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Speaker 3: from the Prime Minister. But there'd be more than a

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Speaker 3: few people inside the Labor Party who wouldn't be losing

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Speaker 3: any sleep over that happening, because the Prime Minister's got

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Speaker 3: very much a mixed standing here in the West. That said,

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Speaker 3: when we're looking ahead at the next election here, it's

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Speaker 3: questionable as to whether we will actually see a whole

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Speaker 3: bunch of seats come back to the Libs. But that's

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Speaker 3: one of the things we're watching for on Saturday night

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Speaker 3: as well, is what can we draw from the seat

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Speaker 3: by seat results. What does that tell us about the

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Speaker 3: way people are viewing the Labor brand more broadly inside

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Speaker 3: those key federal seats.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Paul, this is looking like a pretty sure thing

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Speaker 1: for the West Australian Labor Party. But are there any

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Speaker 1: battleground seats in this election and where are they?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's going to be some really interesting ones to watch.

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Speaker 3: West Australia is quite different from every other state in

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Speaker 3: that there isn't a formal coalition between the Liberals and

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Speaker 3: the Nationals, so you do have some genuine three cornered

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Speaker 3: races here. So seats like in the regions like Calgooley,

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Speaker 3: which has been held I think the last four elections

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Speaker 3: that's been Liberals, Labor, Independent and Nats have all had

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Speaker 3: to go out holding that seat. And so the way

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Speaker 3: that one falls on Saturday really is anyone's guests. We're

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Speaker 3: waiting to see the anointment of Basil Zemplus as a

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Speaker 3: member of the Liberal Party. He's considered basically a shoeing

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Speaker 3: to win his seat of church Lands. One that will

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Speaker 3: be very interesting to watch is another regional seat of Albany.

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Speaker 3: Albany is a seat that's been hit very hard by

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Speaker 3: the federal government's large export band that's really hurt the

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Speaker 3: Labor brand and the state government more broadly has a

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Speaker 3: pretty mixed to poor standing in the regions. Generally, the

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Speaker 3: health issues that are pretty poor in the city or

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Speaker 3: even more acute in the regions. The state governments. Bans

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Speaker 3: around things like that of logging the fishing industry, reforms

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Speaker 3: around gun laws and so on have all proved deeply

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Speaker 3: unpopular in the region. If there was going to be

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Speaker 3: one surprise on Saturday night, I'd be thinking it could

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Speaker 3: come in the regions.

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Speaker 1: Paul Garvey is a senior reporter in The Australian's Western

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Speaker 1: Australia Bureau. You can keep up with his reporting and

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Speaker 1: analysis of this weekend's state election at the Australian dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au