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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. A five billion dollar merger

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Speaker 1: in the gold sector set to get the green light.

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Speaker 1: The Aussie dollar on the rise again at least against

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Speaker 1: the US dollar, and hospitality businesses top the list of

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Speaker 1: insolvencies over the past year plus. The local share market

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Speaker 1: bounces and oppositionally to Peter Dutton introduces his son Harry

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Speaker 1: to the campaign trail. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Tuesday, the fifteenth of April twenty twenty five. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Ayle.

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Speaker 2: My morning, Michael. Big day, Charlie's twenty third birthday, my

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Speaker 2: eldest son.

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Speaker 1: Happy birthday, Charlie.

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Speaker 2: He's on in the country, probably won't be listening, but

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Speaker 2: happy birthday, Charlie.

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Speaker 1: But does he subscribe to the Fear and Greed of

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Speaker 1: daily newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I did it for him.

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Speaker 1: Funnily enough, there we know. But look. Thank you to

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Speaker 1: everyone who has subscribed to the daily newsletter. We kicked

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Speaker 1: it off at the start of last week. Fantastic response

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Speaker 1: so far. If you haven't signed up, head along to

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Speaker 1: Fearandgreed dot com dot Au pop your email addressing. I'll

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Speaker 1: put a link in the show notes as well so

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Speaker 1: that you can find it very very easily. And it

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Speaker 1: just means that by six o'clock every weekday you receive

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Speaker 1: an email with basically everything you need to know to

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Speaker 1: arrive at your desk smarter and ready, ready for the day.

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Speaker 2: Exactly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, all right on with the show, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning, Northern Star is set to buy

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Speaker 1: out small Arrival to Gray Mining in a five billion

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Speaker 1: dollar deal, creating a top twenty company on the ASX

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Speaker 1: and continuing the consolidation in the gold sector.

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Speaker 2: To Gray's largest shareholder, gold Road Resources has finally backed

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Speaker 2: the deal, meaning Northern Star should be able to buy

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Speaker 2: the Uwa based minor with flagship operations in the Pilbra

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Speaker 2: de Grays developing the Hemi mine h E. M I Mind,

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Speaker 2: and the price is the highest. The five billion dollar

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Speaker 2: price is the highest ever for a potential gold mine.

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Speaker 2: The Hemi project is one of the country's best undeveloped

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Speaker 2: gold projects. The Mind's thought to hold at least eleven

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Speaker 2: million ounces of gold. Now seventy five percent of de

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Speaker 2: Gray shareholders need to vote for the deal. The fact

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Speaker 2: that gold Ride Resources, which has about seventeen percent, has

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Speaker 2: given the thumbs up, means that it's likely to get

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Speaker 2: the green light. It comes amid gold prices hitting record levels,

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Speaker 2: with some investment banks forecasting a jump to four thousand

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Speaker 2: US dollars an ounce now currently it's about three to

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Speaker 2: two four five and forty five US dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 2: That's close to fifty two hundred Bussie dollars announce, up

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Speaker 2: about twenty five percent this year. Another deal on the

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Speaker 2: go is South African based gold Fields Hostile bid for

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Speaker 2: gold Roads, as in the majority shareholder of De Gray,

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Speaker 2: not the majority, a large shareholder of De Gray. And

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Speaker 2: there's also a proposed tie up between Spartan Resources and

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Speaker 2: Romelius Resources.

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Speaker 1: Shown the gold price is rising so quickly. Shan's fortieth birthday.

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Speaker 1: This is my wife, Shan. Her birthday was very recently

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Speaker 1: forty and we all chipped in to give her a

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Speaker 1: gold necklace, and we had to kind of reconsider halfway

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Speaker 1: through because even in the period of about a month

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Speaker 1: that we were planning it gold the price of the

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Speaker 1: necklace itself shot up and it's so fascinating to see

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Speaker 1: it flowing through just even to just everyday jewelry prices.

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Speaker 2: I assume she got the necklace, because you wouldn't be

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Speaker 2: telling the story if she didn't.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, no, I certainly wouldn't. But yes you did,

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Speaker 1: and it looked spectacular, looked worth every cent of which

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Speaker 1: there were many. It's been a great year for gold miners.

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Speaker 1: How about this for a stat Nine of the top

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Speaker 1: ten stocks on the ASX two hundred this year have

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Speaker 1: been gold miners.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the tatle uncertainty in fear gripping financial market's been

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Speaker 2: great for local gold companies. Central banks have been in

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Speaker 2: the words of the World Gold Council, they've been hoovering

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Speaker 2: up gold at an eye watering pace. In fact, one

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Speaker 2: thousand tons in each of the last three calendar years.

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Speaker 2: Last year was a record production year, including mine production

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Speaker 2: and recycle gold, coming in at just under five thousand

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Speaker 2: tons of gold a year. There's one area of gold

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Speaker 2: not doing so well necklaces, Well, not necklaces, but actually jewelry,

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Speaker 2: because then your consumption was down by eleven percent last year,

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Speaker 2: although to your point, I think the title value of

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Speaker 2: jewelry sold was about up about eight or nine percent.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that seems about right.

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Speaker 2: Australia as the world's third largest producer of a goal,

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Speaker 2: behind China, Russia, ahead of places like Canada and the US.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at local markets. How

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Speaker 1: did things go yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It's actually a really good day yesterday. The SMPA six

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Speaker 2: two one hundred jump one point three percent to finish

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Speaker 2: at seven seven hundred and forty nine points. Would normally

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Speaker 2: get very excited about that. It's just that so much

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Speaker 2: has been happening in the last two weeks in the markets.

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Speaker 2: It's like just another one point three percent another day.

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Speaker 2: Tech stocks so the way. On the back of a

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Speaker 2: strong weekend for Wall Street. The big miners did well,

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Speaker 2: as did healthcare and property stocks. Donald Trump winding back

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Speaker 2: some of the tariffs and electronic goods from China prompted

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Speaker 2: the confidence, although he did warn Beijing that there are

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Speaker 2: tariffs coming. The big banks and the big miners did well,

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Speaker 2: and on the A six, when those groups perform well,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a good day. BHP jump nearly

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Speaker 2: three percent, Rio was about one and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: Forest fu Medals Group nearly one percent. Ainz come off,

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Speaker 2: Bank Westpac all around one and a half percent. The

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Speaker 2: tech stocks did well. Promedicus, particularly Wistick was higher, CSL

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Speaker 2: Goodman Group plenty of stocks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and the Aussie dollar sean is on the rise,

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Speaker 1: at least against the green back.

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Speaker 2: It is back up to sixty three US sands. It's

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Speaker 2: really a story about the US dollar, though, which against

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Speaker 2: a basket of other currencies is now at a three

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Speaker 2: year low. The greenback is down in the league ten

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Speaker 2: percent since Donald Trump took over. Who cares about the

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Speaker 2: U s styll It's not as if any of us

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Speaker 2: are going overseas to the United States anytime this northern summer.

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Speaker 2: Let's think about it. About it against the euro perhaps

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Speaker 2: here we go yep, yep, near multi U lows.

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Speaker 1: Still that would make sense. When when do you head off?

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Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. Well, you know, it's depreciated about eight percent

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Speaker 2: this year. Certainly not good if you or I were

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Speaker 2: going to Europe this year, Michael, No better if you're

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Speaker 2: heading to the UK for like two weeks of your

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Speaker 2: four week holiday, you having to be in the UK

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Speaker 2: for example. Just throwing it out there, Yeah, pound trading

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Speaker 2: around ten year highs against the aussider.

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Speaker 1: It constantly amazes me how your self interest manages to

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Speaker 1: just see Michael through the show. Michael, they'd be like that,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, you're speaking of half of everyone here, aren't you?

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Speaker 2: Everyone?

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Speaker 1: Everyone going with you on the holiday.

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Speaker 2: That's right against the end, the Aussie dollar is relatively strong,

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Speaker 2: not going anywhere near Japan though, of.

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Speaker 1: Course you're not. After the show sean terrific interview Today,

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Speaker 1: something a little bit different. You're joined in the studio

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Speaker 1: by Bruce Walpy, who is the Senior Fellow Nonresident at

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Speaker 1: the United States Studies Center. But he knows US politics

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Speaker 1: so well. He served with the Democrats in Congress when

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama was president. He just knows it all he does.

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Speaker 2: And we're talking to him about Donald Trump. And as

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Speaker 2: you can imagine, Bruce isn't a huge fan of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: But some on the points he makes about what Trump

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Speaker 2: is doing. His claim is that Trump will kill democracy

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Speaker 2: in the US. Now that's a pretty big claim, a

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Speaker 2: big call. That is the greatest democracy in modern society

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Speaker 2: of the US, and Bruce is saying Trump goodwill do

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Speaker 2: it in And one of the reasons is there's no

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Speaker 2: opposition leader. So the Westminster system, there's alway an opposition party.

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Speaker 2: There's no effective opposition leader in the US, and so

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Speaker 2: we talked to him about that and the prognasis for

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Speaker 2: the US generally.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And there's this really interesting point that he

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Speaker 1: makes about the potential for a collision between the President

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Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court and what could happen if that

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Speaker 1: does eventuate. Now, it's just a really interesting conversation that

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Speaker 1: is coming up after the show. We've got a lot

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Speaker 1: still to get through though, Sean. We'll be back in

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Speaker 1: a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Opposition leader Peter Dutton has introduced his son Harry into

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Speaker 1: the campaign, with the twenty year old saying that he

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Speaker 1: and his sister are struggling to save for a house.

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Speaker 2: Dunton was then asked whether he was going to help,

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Speaker 2: because remember, Pete Dunton has actually got a multimillion dollar

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Speaker 2: home portfolio. Sure surely the bank of Mum and Daddy

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Speaker 2: kick in. And he just totally ignored the question because

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Speaker 2: I've got points I want to make here. Oh goodness right,

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Speaker 2: his son, Harry is twenty years of age and an

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Speaker 2: apprentice carpenter. I think I'll tell you what, I don't

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Speaker 2: know how many apprentice carpenters saving for a house, not

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Speaker 2: at the.

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Speaker 1: Age of twenty. I know when I was twenty, housing

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Speaker 1: was not kind of.

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Speaker 2: Not top of mind. It is in the Dutton household.

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Speaker 2: He and his sister apparently are. The Coalition was very

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Speaker 2: much pushing its pledge to make mortgage at payments for

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Speaker 2: first home buyers tax deductible. Yesterday Dunton north I cited

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Speaker 2: it or suggested that migration cuts would help the housing market.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister Anthony Alberanizi was also pushing his housing

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Speaker 2: policy that's a five percent deposit for first time buyers.

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Speaker 2: He also spent time packing meals and are not for

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Speaker 2: profit group and trying to explain the most awkward non

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Speaker 2: kiss in this election campaign and possibly the most awkward

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Speaker 2: non kiss of any Australian election campaign.

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Speaker 1: Oh, just just broadened it out those.

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Speaker 2: Who didn't see it. Tanya Plevsek and Anthony Aberzi on

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Speaker 2: the weekend at the election launch in Perth, they kind

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Speaker 2: of went in for the kiss and they got, I

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Speaker 2: reckon about a foot from each other, so it's not

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Speaker 2: like they got five centimeters. They got about a foot

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Speaker 2: from each other and they just both booked and they

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Speaker 2: just weren't again.

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Speaker 1: There they bailed and it is just you know what

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Speaker 1: it feels as though the last kind of twenty four

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Speaker 1: to forty eight hours has been a series of own goals.

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Speaker 1: Here we got kind of Peter Dutton introducing his son

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Speaker 1: into the election campaign and being asked these awkward questions

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Speaker 1: about are you going to help with housing? And then

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Speaker 1: you've got one that that Albanezy and and Tania Pilibus

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Speaker 1: that could have avoided they did that themselves.

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Speaker 2: Yep, she said today she came and said, I was

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Speaker 2: trying to avoid a cold. I don't want to get

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Speaker 2: too close.

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Speaker 1: I said, maybe we should just all go back to

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Speaker 1: elbow bumping. Yes, maybe bringing back the elbowdes Sean. Moving

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Speaker 1: on away from politics, it's tough being an investor in

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Speaker 1: the big iron ore mines at the at the moment,

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Speaker 1: it seems kind of share prices EBB and flow pretty

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Speaker 1: much after every single usterance from Washington and from Beijing. Yesterday,

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Speaker 1: the price of iron ore rose, reversing a sharp slide,

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Speaker 1: which also helped BHP four to skew Medals and Rio Tinto.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but the price of ironoil is down about ten

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Speaker 2: percent year to date, and the big miners have fallen

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Speaker 2: alongside it. BHP's the most diversified of the three. Its

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Speaker 2: share price is down eight percent this year twenty percent

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Speaker 2: of the past twelve months Foroyscu Metals very tight to

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Speaker 2: iron Or. As the price has gone down, so to

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Speaker 2: its share price. It's not sixteen percent this year, but

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Speaker 2: over the last twelve months, Foresu Metals has fallen forty percent.

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Speaker 2: That's a big drop for a large cap company. Rio

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Speaker 2: Tinto well, it's in the middle of a over relocating.

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Speaker 2: It's full listing to the AX, something that's unlikely to happen.

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Speaker 2: It's done best, but it's still down six percent this

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Speaker 2: year thirty percent over the last year, all on the

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Speaker 2: back off fears about a slow down in China the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: Coming to that argument now, investment analysts forecast lower prices

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Speaker 2: for iron or. They BEHP recently said it didn't actually

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Speaker 2: expect demand from China to drop much this year. Just

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Speaker 2: been a tough road for investors in the big three miners.

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Speaker 1: How about this one yesterday sean Neuran Pharmaceuticals. The share

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Speaker 1: price jumped twenty one percent yesterday after the US Food

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Speaker 1: and Drug Administration signed off on implementing a phase three

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Speaker 1: clinical trial.

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Speaker 2: Exciting for the group. The FDA approved the phase three

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Speaker 2: trials of nn Z DASH two five nine one, basically

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Speaker 2: a drug it hopes will treat children with Feelin McDermid syndrome,

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Speaker 2: which is a rare genetic disorder that can result in medical, intellectual,

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Speaker 2: and behavioral challenges no cure for it. Treatment at the

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Speaker 2: moment tends to address symptoms, sort of hoping to maximize

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Speaker 2: people's ability to function, particularly children. The neuron drug is

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Speaker 2: the first ever, first ever phase three trial for feeling

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Speaker 2: McDermott syndrome. Now obviously not there yet, you have to

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Speaker 2: go through the phase three trial, but very promising.

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Speaker 1: Biotech companies are so interesting, aren't they? And they can

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Speaker 1: swing just so much depending on kind of rulings like

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Speaker 1: this from the FDA, or the success or otherwise of

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Speaker 1: a clinical trial, or the various stages that they need

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Speaker 1: to get through. But there's really interesting stories behind them,

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Speaker 1: like the fact that this is actually treating potentially a

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Speaker 1: condition that affects kids. Yep, exactly fascinating stuff. Now six

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Speaker 1: of the top seven ranked industries for business closures in

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Speaker 1: the last twelve months are dependent sean on household discretionary spending.

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Speaker 2: It tells the story tells the cost of living story.

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Speaker 2: Industries with the highest closure rates of food and beverage,

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Speaker 2: in hospitality, administrative and supports services, and arts and recreation

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Speaker 2: all are facing a business closure rate of more than

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Speaker 2: six percent. If you think of one hundred businesses out there,

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Speaker 2: six of them going wrong in those sectors, it's a

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Speaker 2: fair bit. In food and beverage, it's above nine point

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Speaker 2: four percent, which is a record level. According to creditor Watch,

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Speaker 2: these rates are at or above pre COVID levels. It

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Speaker 2: suggests that the full impact of COVID nineteen has flushed

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Speaker 2: through the system.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Insolvencies remain elevated in March, broadly unchanged on February levels,

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Speaker 2: but seventeen percent higher than twelve months ago as a

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Speaker 2: share of total company registrations. To account for the rise

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Speaker 2: of the number of companies, insolvencies are actually now above

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Speaker 2: pre COVID rates.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Turning to international news now, and China's government says

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Speaker 1: the US's decision to exempt certain consumer electronics from so

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Speaker 1: called reciprocal tariffs is a small step towards rectifying its

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Speaker 1: wrongdoings and has urged Washington to do more to revoke

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Speaker 1: the broader levies.

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Speaker 2: So we mentioned this earlier in the show. The great

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Speaker 2: thing about this story is different language the different sides use.

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Speaker 2: So you know, as I mentioned, US President Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: administration excluded smartphones, computers, other electronics from the increased import duties.

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Speaker 2: The Chinese Ministry of Comment of Commerce posted on its

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Speaker 2: official we chat account, I'm quoting, this is a small

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Speaker 2: step by the US towards correcting its wrongful action of

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Speaker 2: unilateral reciprocal tariffs. So it's like, thank you, but whack.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump responds. He said the no tariff decision is temporary,

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Speaker 2: and he said on truth social I quote again, nobody

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Speaker 2: in capital letters. Of course, nobody is getting off the hook.

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Speaker 2: He said, they're just just moving to a different tariff bucket.

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Speaker 2: And the administration will and I quote again, taking a

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Speaker 2: look at semiconductors and the whole electronics supply chain. They're

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Speaker 2: all in as well to pharmacy. It's funny with the Chinese.

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Speaker 2: You're giggling away there. It's one of the Chinese are

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Speaker 2: looking like the diplomats the US.

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Speaker 1: I just love the typing.

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Speaker 3: Can you imagine can you imagine the President's sitting there

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Speaker 3: with his phone typing this and just at what point

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Speaker 3: he goes, you know what this needs needs capital letters,

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Speaker 3: all caps bang bang bang bang bang for the rest

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Speaker 3: of the sentence, like that'll really cut through. And Chinese

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Speaker 3: President Jijin Ping, who is touring Southeast Asia at the moment,

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Speaker 3: warned that US protectionism will lead nowhere.

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Speaker 2: So he's visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. Do you know

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Speaker 2: what they have in common?

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Speaker 1: They said, to have very high tariffs, don't They's.

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Speaker 2: Exactly right, Southeast Asians hit really hard by those Trump tariffs.

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Speaker 2: It's his first trip this year, and isn't it interesting

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Speaker 2: that that's where he's going. He said that a trade

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Speaker 2: and tariff will produces no winners and protectionism leads nowhere.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean. Up next is the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: Daily Interview. Your guest today, Bruce Walpi. Fascinating conversation in

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Speaker 1: the studio, all about US politics. It's coming up in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or

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Speaker 1: at Fearangreed dot com DoD au, which is, of course

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Speaker 1: I've mentioned so many times now where you sign up

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Speaker 1: for the free daily newsletter don't be the only one

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Speaker 1: who doesn't do it, and keep an eye on the

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Speaker 1: playlist as well. At midday today, a new bonus episode

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Speaker 1: of Ask Fear and Greed where we answer a listener

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Speaker 1: question from Craig All about one.

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Speaker 2: Of the most exciting things ever in financial markets, bond bonds.

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Speaker 1: And you are going to be in your element, Sean,

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Speaker 1: So just come along just for that, just to hear

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Speaker 1: the excitement in Sewan's voice. Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the fifteenth of April twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Oh Michael Thompson,

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.