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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi starts his Chinese trip with trade policy, Taiwan,

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Speaker 1: iron Ore, and tourism at the top of the agenda.

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Speaker 1: We might not have gotten a rape cut last week,

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Speaker 1: but that didn't stall home sales, and a lack of

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Speaker 1: poles and wires could force every large soul of farm

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Speaker 1: in Australia's southeastern states to switch off at least one

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Speaker 1: third of the power they generate by twenty twenty seven, plus,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump puts tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union,

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Speaker 1: and preliminary findings of the Air India crash of last

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Speaker 1: month are released. It's Monday, the fourteenth of July twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Adam Langan. Good morning Sean, Alma, Good morning, Adam, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi is

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Speaker 1: in China and he's set to meet President Jijingping later

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Speaker 1: in the week, with US trade policy, Taiwan, iron ore,

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Speaker 1: and tourism heading the list of topics to be discovered.

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Speaker 2: Perhaps the toughest topic is Taiwan. The Trump administration is

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Speaker 2: pushing Australia and Japan to make clear what role they'd

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Speaker 2: play if the US and China went to war over

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Speaker 2: that country. Now, it's not a question the government really

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Speaker 2: wants to answer. Mister Albanesi told reporters in Shanghai yesterday

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Speaker 2: that Australia does not support any unilateral action, that's his

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Speaker 2: words on Taiwan, and that spending on both defense and

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Speaker 2: aid is about advancing peace and security in our region,

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Speaker 2: which of course didn't really answer the question. Australia operates

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Speaker 2: under a One China policy. It does not officially recognize

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Speaker 2: Taiwan as a sovereign state, although like many countries, it

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Speaker 2: engages with Taiwan informally through non government channels. The shadow

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Speaker 2: of Donald Trump and US tariff policy sits over the

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Speaker 2: Albanesi Shei meeting. Over the weekend, the White House put

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Speaker 2: tariffs of thirty percent on the European Union and Mexico.

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Speaker 2: They're both friends, remember that after living a thirty five

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Speaker 2: percent tariff on Canada on Friday. While the Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: is in China the week with him are representatives from

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Speaker 2: the business community, including executives from BHP, Rio Tinto and

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Speaker 2: fortes Hu Metals. Those companies need the favor of Beijing

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Speaker 2: to keep selling iron or now. Tourism might be the

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Speaker 2: easiest topic to discuss for the PM misster. Albanezi will

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Speaker 2: sprout tourism and sporting ties, hoping to lure thousands of

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Speaker 2: travelers back to Australia where visitors' numbers have They've bounced,

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Speaker 2: but they haven't really fully recovered from the pandemic. There

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Speaker 2: will also be other issues discussed, like things like the

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Speaker 2: circumnavigation of the Australian Maidenland earlier this year by a

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Speaker 2: flotilla of Chinese warships, including the failure to give notice

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Speaker 2: of live firing exercises in the Tasma Sea. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: that one will be brought up, so to human rights

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Speaker 2: abuses in China Sean.

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Speaker 1: It's such a busy agenda. But what do you think

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Speaker 1: the Prime Minister wants out of the trip to China.

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Speaker 2: I think he wants to achieve closer trade ties without

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Speaker 2: irritating the Trump administration. Defense is the elephant in the room.

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Speaker 2: ALBANIZI will have to be at his absolute diplomatic best

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Speaker 2: to carry favor with Beijing and not totally irritate Washington.

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Speaker 1: It's a very delicate line to walk Oh sure is sure?

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Speaker 1: He is shan Amongst all of that, how did the

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Speaker 1: local markets perform on Friday?

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Speaker 2: Well, the local share market closed down slightly to finish

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Speaker 2: the session at five at eight five hundred and eighty points,

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Speaker 2: meaning for the week it was pretty much flat. It's

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Speaker 2: around one percent off its record high of last month.

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Speaker 2: But really the big story on Friday came from the

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Speaker 2: Battery Minerals company. So late last week, the Pentagon took

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Speaker 2: a fifteen percent stake in a group called MP Materials

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Speaker 2: listed on Wall Street, actually backed by Gena reinhartch he

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Speaker 2: owns about nine percent of it. The reason that Pentagon

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Speaker 2: took a stake in it they want to get access

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Speaker 2: to non Chinese rare earths, China being the biggest producer

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Speaker 2: of rare earth the US and the Pentagon looking for

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Speaker 2: other places. That pushed MP Materials share price up fifty percent,

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Speaker 2: and local rare earth companies I Luka Liners they jumped

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Speaker 2: as well, So it's kind of an interesting story playing

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Speaker 2: out there. Future Training suggests a local market will open

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Speaker 2: lower today on the back of the US tariff announcements

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. The sector supporting the market funnily enough,

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Speaker 2: at the moment's resources with on all prices pushing to

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Speaker 2: nearly one hundred US dollars a ton over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: In fact, in the past three weeks, beachp's real share

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Speaker 2: prices are up around ten percent forty s QW middles

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Speaker 2: of about seventeen percent that whole. We talked about this

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Speaker 2: a week ago, the big switch and the idea that

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Speaker 2: it's sort of from financials to resources, and I mean

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Speaker 2: it's not fair to say it's playing out. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we'll know in six months time whether it's played out

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Speaker 2: or not, but certainly the signs suggest it's happening.

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Speaker 1: And Sean, what about global markets, what's happening there? Well?

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Speaker 2: Wall Street ended lower over the weekend on the back

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Speaker 2: of the tariff announcements, but it was coming off a

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Speaker 2: record high. June quarter earning season kicks off this week

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Speaker 2: on Wall Street, and just as critical as earnings will

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Speaker 2: be commentary from CEOs about the impact of tariffs. Bitcoin

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Speaker 2: continues its urge. It pushed beyond one hundred and seventeen

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Speaker 2: thousand US as a unit, quite extraordinary. The IOSI Dollard's

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Speaker 2: buying nearly sixty six US cents sean extraordinary is a

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Speaker 2: great word.

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Speaker 1: And speaking of which, what is Donald Trump doing with tariffs?

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Speaker 1: It's pretty hard to keep track of this.

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Speaker 2: So basically what he's doing is creating huge amount of uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned, he whacked on a thirty five percent

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Speaker 2: tariff on Canadian goods and thirty percent for Mexican and

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Speaker 2: European Union products. In the case for Mexico, he said

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Speaker 2: the country had failed to stop the cartels, saying it

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Speaker 2: hasn't done enough to stop the flower fentanyl into the US.

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Speaker 2: The European commissioned President Ursula von Delane my favorite name

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Speaker 2: in all of geo politics. Erslavonda Lane said the thirty

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Speaker 2: percent tariffs will disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains to the

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Speaker 2: detriment of businesses, consumers, and patients on both sides of

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Speaker 2: the Atlantic. Patients presumably that's all about pharmaceutical companies. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump also said he's eyeing fifteen to twenty percent blanket

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Speaker 2: tariffs for other countries, which presumably wouldn't Australia. Now we're

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Speaker 2: supposed to be hit with a ten percent tariff, fifteen

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Speaker 2: to twenty percent, who knows? Who knows?

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Speaker 1: So much to keep track of Sean's So for anyone

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Speaker 1: listening now who wants some help, go to the website,

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Speaker 1: sign up to the newsletter. It might be easy to

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Speaker 1: get the numbers in front of you. And speaking of

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Speaker 1: other fear and greed products, Shawn up. Next is our interview,

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Speaker 1: your interview with Damien Hennessy from Zenith Investment Partners. Tell

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Speaker 1: us about that, but.

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Speaker 2: It's all about how to invest in these turbulent times.

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Speaker 2: So we talk about what the tariffs mean when it's

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Speaker 2: and losing its inequities, and then we talk about asset allocations.

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Speaker 2: So you know, the world's not just about equities. It's

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Speaker 2: bonds and alternatives and real assets, things like property and infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: So we go through Damien kind of had how he

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Speaker 2: thinks about his portfolio and constructing it in these turbulent times.

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Speaker 2: So if you are interested in investing at all, it

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Speaker 2: is well worth listen, Cracker.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: those business news. Sean. We might not have gotten an

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Speaker 1: interest rate cut last week, but that didn't stop home

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Speaker 1: buyers over the weekend, with a preliminary auction clear and

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Speaker 1: straight across the country, staying solid at just under seventy

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Speaker 1: three percent.

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Speaker 2: Really quite frisky. Those home buyers adam quite frisky.

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Speaker 1: School holidays didn't get in the way clearly.

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Speaker 2: Well, to be honest, there were as many auctions over

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Speaker 2: the weekend or over the last week because of school holidays.

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Speaker 2: Still sales are pretty good. Perhaps the fact that Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank Governor Michelle Bullock made it clear that rates will

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Speaker 2: fall in coming months has a laid by a concern.

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Speaker 2: The clearance trait has now been above seventy percent for

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Speaker 2: about five weeks. This is not official, This is just me.

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Speaker 2: Whatever I see it above seventy percent, I always think,

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Speaker 2: well that's pretty good. Anythink below sixty seventy percent you

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Speaker 2: start thinking, well it's not bad, but it's yeah lukewarm,

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Speaker 2: yeah solid, whereas above seventy oricans pretty good. Melvin was

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Speaker 2: the busiest market, although it's clear and straight fell so

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Speaker 2: much to just over seventy percent. It's had a really

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Speaker 2: good run the past six or eight Weeksourne Melbourne Sidney's

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Speaker 2: clear straight hit a high for the year seventy six

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Speaker 2: point two percent. Adelaide was best to the smaller capitals.

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Speaker 2: It had a clearance straight of seventy six percent, followed

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Speaker 2: by Camera At sixty eight percent and Brisbane at sixty

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Speaker 2: one percent.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I'm finding this particularly interesting. Almost every large solar

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Speaker 1: farm in Australia's southeastern states will be forced to switch

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Speaker 1: off at least one third of power they generate by

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven on the back of delays to new

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Speaker 1: poles and wires projects. And they are the one they

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Speaker 1: are the things needed to transmit the electricity generate.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fascinating how slow the infrastructure is to I mean,

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Speaker 2: it's just not catching up. The Australian Energy Market Operator

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Speaker 2: or analysis shows that the slow rollout of key poles

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Speaker 2: and wire progressing Victoria will limit the amount of big

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Speaker 2: of powerbeat renewable projects can produce. According to a story

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Speaker 2: in The Finn Review, major solo farms in Victoria and

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Speaker 2: South Australia a forecast have shut off rates of more

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Speaker 2: than thirty five percent in a couple of years time.

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Speaker 2: Several major projects are low like to be forced to

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Speaker 2: share more than sixty five percent of their power, The

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Speaker 2: analysis shows the AEMO Australian Energy Market Operatum said Victorian

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Speaker 2: and South Australia shut off rates are forecast to be

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Speaker 2: particularly high as the big growth of new renewable energy

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Speaker 2: projects has not been matched with equivalent both in the

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Speaker 2: capacity of the big electricity cables required to connect them

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Speaker 2: to the grid. Moral of this story, government, let's get

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Speaker 2: some of these powers and why polls and why is going?

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Speaker 2: Because what's the point of having all this renewable if

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Speaker 2: we can't actually get it to people and businesses?

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Speaker 1: Great point Sean private equity group Pacific Equity Partners will

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Speaker 1: buy building services group John's Ling for one billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: John's Ling has signed a scheme implementation deed with PEP

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Speaker 2: subsidiary Sherwood Bidco for the about four what dollars not

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Speaker 2: about adam exactly four dollars per share offer. It values

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Speaker 2: John's Ling equity at about one point one billion dollars

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Speaker 2: and enterprise value at one point three billion dollars because

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Speaker 2: we've got.

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Speaker 1: A bit of debt there.

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Speaker 2: That sent john Link's share price up twenty three percent

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Speaker 2: on Friday to three dollars ninety.

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Speaker 1: Turning to agriculture, shown the outlook for crop production across

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Speaker 1: the country is expected to for this financial year with

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Speaker 1: lower volumes across most products, while northern New South Wales,

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Speaker 1: Queensland and southwestern Wa have had a good start to

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Speaker 1: the winter cropping season. It has been overly dry in

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Speaker 1: South Australia, Western Victoria, Southern New South Wales and northern Wa.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so according to Abears, crop production in the new

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Speaker 2: financial year is tip to reach fifty point seven billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: That's actually down two billion dollars. The good news for

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Speaker 2: farmers is that tightening global grain supplies should result in

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Speaker 2: rising prices. A Bear's expects to drop in production eve

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Speaker 2: from some of Australia's biggest crops wheat, barley, sorghum, but

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Speaker 2: higher prices, so the net effect is for export values

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Speaker 2: to actually be the fourth highest on record. There's also

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Speaker 2: expected to be a slight drop in what they call

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Speaker 2: industrial crops, things like cotton, sugar, wine over shatting shadowing

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Speaker 2: all exports of soft commorities, of course, is the uf

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Speaker 2: tariff policy and our free trade negotiations with Europe, so

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Speaker 2: that will also come into play out of the next

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Speaker 2: twelve months or so.

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Speaker 1: Sean social media use among Australian children aged ten to

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Speaker 1: fifteen is almost universal and accompanied by high rates of

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Speaker 1: exposure online harms on a wide range of platforms and services,

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Speaker 1: and this is according to E Safety's latest research report.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm just trying to think. So my youngest is sixteen,

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Speaker 2: your youngest is fourteen. Yeah, it's very difficult to keep

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Speaker 2: them off social media.

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Speaker 1: Particularly when all of their friends are on it. It's

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Speaker 1: hard to be a perception. Yes, indeed totally.

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Speaker 2: The report shows ninety six percent of children in this

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Speaker 2: age group ten to fifteen had used at least one

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Speaker 2: social media platform, with seven and ten saying they hadn't

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Speaker 2: encountered content associated with harm. This included exposure to misogynist

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Speaker 2: or hateful material, dangerous online challengesviolent fight videos, and content

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Speaker 2: promoting disordered eating and suicide. Three quarters of these children

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Speaker 2: said they most recently came to this type of content

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Speaker 2: on a social media service.

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Speaker 1: That is alarming Sean in international news, the engines on

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Speaker 1: Air India flight one seven to one briefly cut off

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Speaker 1: seconds after takeoff. A preliminary report into the jets fatal

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Speaker 1: crash last month has.

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Speaker 2: Found India's Air Accident Investigation Bureau said in its report

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Speaker 2: released over the weekend, that the aircraft reached the necessary

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Speaker 2: speed to lift off, but that seconds later, switches that

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Speaker 2: control the flow of fuel to the jets two engines

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Speaker 2: transitioned was their word, from run to cutoff position now.

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Speaker 2: In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is

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Speaker 2: heard asking the other why did you cut off, to

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Speaker 2: which he responded that he did not do so. According

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Speaker 2: to the report, although the two switches transitioned back to

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Speaker 2: the run position ten and fourteen seconds later, the engine

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Speaker 2: has been starved of fuel and lost thrust. According to report,

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Speaker 2: theft leading one pilot to declare may day, may day,

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Speaker 2: may Day. Aviation experts have said it is difficult for

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Speaker 2: pilots to inadvertently move the fuel switches. The crash on

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Speaker 2: June twelve occurred moments after the Boeing Dreamliner seven eight

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Speaker 2: seven took off from Metabad bound for London Gatwick Airport.

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Speaker 2: The accident killed two hundred and forty one people on

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Speaker 2: board and another twenty nine on the ground, where the

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Speaker 2: Boeing Dreamline seven eight seven crashed into a medical college

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Speaker 2: near the airport.

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Speaker 1: Stay with us after the show for Shaun's interview with

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Speaker 1: Damien Hennessy from Zenith Partners, and then at midday look

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Speaker 1: Out for the Week Ahead with our resident economist Stephen

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Speaker 1: Coucoulis and if you haven't signed up for the newsletter.

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Speaker 1: Yet today is the day Sean.

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Speaker 2: Adam full of great yews. It'll help you look smart

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Speaker 2: when you get to your desk.

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Speaker 2: Go to Fearing Greed dot com au and sign up

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Speaker 2: for the newsletter.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, Thank you Adam. It's Monday, the fourteenth

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Speaker 1: of July twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast,

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Speaker 1: and please have a great day.