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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. National Australia Bank announces a

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Speaker 1: solid half year profit and tips several cuts in interest rates.

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Speaker 1: Former Opposition leader Peter Dutton opts for a graceful silence

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Speaker 1: about the weekend election, and a law firm is fined

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Speaker 1: after forcing a junior lawyer to work twenty four hours straight.

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Speaker 1: Plus Tab Corp gains approval to launch live betting on

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Speaker 1: its app, which has the potential to be a game

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Speaker 1: changer for the group. And India and Pakistan attack each other.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the eighth

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Speaker 1: of May twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good

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Speaker 1: morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean the Fear and Greed daily news that are out

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Speaker 1: this morning. It's in your inbox by six am. If

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Speaker 1: you haven't signed up yet, mate, today the day you

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Speaker 1: do it, you really It only takes two or three

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Speaker 1: minutes to read it, and you will I guarantee it

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Speaker 1: arrive at your desk better prepared the day entirely free.

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Speaker 1: Sign up at Fearangreed dot com today you and I

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Speaker 1: put a link in the show notes straight on with

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Speaker 1: the show, though Shawn the main story. This morning, NAB

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Speaker 1: has announced a one percent jump in half year profit,

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Speaker 1: with the bank showing resilience in the face of very

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Speaker 1: competitive mortgage and lending markets. National Australia Bank announced cash

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Speaker 1: earnings of three point six billion dollars for the six

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Speaker 1: months to the end of March, a little better than expector,

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Speaker 1: and its share price finished up more than two percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: NAB's performance, alongside Westpac's slide when it reported or since

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Speaker 1: it's reported on Monday, means the Melbourne based bank is

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Speaker 1: once again the country's second largest financial institution, pushing Westpac

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Speaker 1: back to number three. NAB's profit margins on lending products

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Speaker 1: narrator a touch In CEO Andrew Irvine said it reflects

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Speaker 1: competition for deposits and mortgages.

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Speaker 2: On the economy. Irvine said the heightened global tensions are

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Speaker 2: a risk to the outlook, though the local economy is

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Speaker 2: pretty sound. NABS tickings. NAB is tipping several rate cuts

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Speaker 2: through this year, in fact, one point five percentage points

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Speaker 2: by early next year.

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Speaker 1: Okay Sewan on that I want to dive into a

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Speaker 1: couple of things that you've mentioned. But Nab saying that

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Speaker 1: interest rates will fall one and a half percentage point

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Speaker 1: by next year, that's more than pretty much anyone else

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Speaker 1: is saying.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Certainly Nab is on the more optimistic side of

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Speaker 2: the rate cut debate. Though maybe it's pessimistic because if

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Speaker 2: we're cutting rates that much, you would think that we

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Speaker 2: are facing a significant slow down in the economy. If

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Speaker 2: it happened, the cash rate would go from four point

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Speaker 2: one percent to two point six percent. Mortgage rates, well,

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Speaker 2: the cheapest ones would be kind of that four and

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Speaker 2: a half to high fours. The standard variable rate would

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Speaker 2: probably fall down to five point something or thereabouts. Nab

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Speaker 2: saying it's all coming on the back of underlying inflation

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Speaker 2: continue into four, which I think is right. In global

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Speaker 2: headwinds from Donald Trump's tariffs, they also think the economy

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Speaker 2: will pick up speed. So within all that, but they're

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Speaker 2: picking out the fact that they think there'll be six

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Speaker 2: interest rate cuts in less than twelve months. It'll be

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Speaker 2: I'd be surprised, to be perfectly honest, But Sally Old,

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Speaker 2: the chief economists there, has all sorts of data in

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Speaker 2: front of her, so you know you don't take that lightly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and she certainly knows that stuff I mentioned. There

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Speaker 1: were a couple of points. The other one I wanted

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Speaker 1: to ask you about is NAB overtaking Westpac as the

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Speaker 1: second largest bank.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So, National Australian Bank was the second largest bank,

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Speaker 2: falling back to number three because west Pack had done

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Speaker 2: so well. Now Westpac has been sold off since it's

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Speaker 2: half a year result on Monday, NAB's been bought up. Now.

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Speaker 2: NAB now comes in at number two behind CBA. Mind you,

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Speaker 2: if you take National Australia Bank and Westpac combined, they're

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Speaker 2: still smaller than comonwealth banking market capitalization terms. NABS now

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Speaker 2: the fourth largest ASEX listed stock, behind CBA, BHP and CSL.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look at local markets. How

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Speaker 1: did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Well, the mcquarie and your conference is going on, so

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Speaker 2: there's plenty of news around the place. By the close

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Speaker 2: yesterday the market was up slightly to one hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy eight points. Not a lot of trading. They talk

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Speaker 2: about thin volumes, not a lot of volumes because this

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Speaker 2: mcquari conference is going on. Brand oil prices are up again,

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Speaker 2: pushing towards sixty three US dollars a barrel that's helped

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Speaker 2: with Woodside and Santos Iron. All prices also edged higher.

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Speaker 2: They're almost at US one hundred dollars a ton. That's

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Speaker 2: helped be UHP and Rio Tinto. Nwick's tumbled seventeen percent

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Speaker 2: after withdrawing full year guidance for revenue growth and underlying

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Speaker 2: cash flow, reporting that customers were holding off committing to

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Speaker 2: new IT contracts. Zip rose twelve percent after talking about

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Speaker 2: a significant turnaround over the past couple of years for

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Speaker 2: the buy and now pay later operator.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned thin trading volumes because of the mcquari conferences.

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Speaker 1: It just kind of people traders kind of waiting to

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Speaker 1: see what is said. Everyone is just distracted and busy

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Speaker 1: and or there's just a bit of kind of everyone

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Speaker 1: holding their breath to see what comes out of it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when I said that, Michael, I kind of was

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Speaker 2: thinking what you were thinking. But then when there's new

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Speaker 2: information that actually often causes investors to trade. So there

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Speaker 2: are thin training volumes, the turnout is not as high,

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Speaker 2: and I've just blamed the mcquari conference for that, but

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Speaker 2: you have probably pulled me up on it fairly correctly.

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Speaker 2: It may not be that at all.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, let's there may be another reason. There

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Speaker 1: may be another reason. Maybe we will find that a

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Speaker 1: gloss over.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Never mention it again. Global markets Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: There? Plenty of hope around the place on news that

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Speaker 2: the US and China have taken early steps to discuss tariff's.

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Speaker 2: Senior Chinese officials are expected to meet with US Treasury

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Speaker 2: Secretaries Scott Bessant and Trade Representative Jemeson Gree in Switzerland

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Speaker 2: this week. It's the first formal step towards negotiating down

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's huge tariffs and Chinese inputs to the US

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Speaker 2: that helped a bunch of riskier assets. For example, bitcoin

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Speaker 2: is pushing back towards ninety eight thousand US dollars a

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Speaker 2: unit sewn the countdown as it is to the bike ride? Yes,

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Speaker 2: how are you feeling? How are your calves right now?

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Speaker 2: You're about to ride three hundred and eighty kilometers throughout

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Speaker 2: parts of western New South Wales. You're raising money for kids,

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Speaker 2: and I've got to say those calves are looking toned.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you very hard. They walk upstairs and

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Speaker 2: I think, given I've got to ride three hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty k's and I have been riding quite a bit.

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Speaker 2: Unlike our colleague Adam Lang. I am not super fit

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Speaker 2: Adam is. I'm not so I have had to train

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Speaker 2: and it just worries me that I can hardly get

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Speaker 2: upstairs at the moment and it's my my thighs more

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Speaker 2: than my calves.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. No, look I have noticed that you. You just

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Speaker 1: look a little uncomfortable as you're walking anyway. But look,

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Speaker 1: we are raising money. We are trying very very hard

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Speaker 1: to raise a whole lot of money. This is for kids, basically,

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Speaker 1: to try and give rural and regional kids the best

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Speaker 1: opportunities in life. And this is the ride for country

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Speaker 1: kids through Rawal far west of Fantastic charity, three hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty kilometers. If you are able to help the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed team, then please I'll put a link

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Speaker 1: in today's show notes so that you're able to do that.

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Speaker 1: You can also head to any of our social media

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Speaker 1: there's links all over the place if you want to

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Speaker 1: see there are videos of Sean and Adam in lycra have.

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Speaker 2: Just destroyed any chance we have of raising money.

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Speaker 1: But fantastic donations coming through Michael Forrest, Thank you for yours,

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Speaker 1: Leon Brammer, Jason m and is so incredible to see

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Speaker 1: the support coming in. We are incredibly grateful donations of

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Speaker 1: all size, so thank you. Sean. We must move on.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news. Sean counting in the federal election continues,

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Speaker 1: with about eighty percent now completed. Labor, which has a

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Speaker 1: massive majority, is struggling in three so called safe seats,

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Speaker 1: while the Teal challenge to the Liberals is actually fading

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Speaker 1: somewhat so.

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Speaker 2: Pending which media outlet you're going to. The ALP looks

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Speaker 2: to have eighty nine to ninety seats called for them,

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Speaker 2: Coalition forty seats, the Teals eight seats plus two others.

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Speaker 2: I didn't mention the Greens there because they're not as

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Speaker 2: shured of having any seats in the lower House, and

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Speaker 2: in fact, at one point last night both Sky News

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Speaker 2: and ABC had called, actually nine did as well, that

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Speaker 2: Adam Banst, the Greens leader, had lost his seat of Melbourne.

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Speaker 2: The AEC hasn't done that yet, hasn't made the call yet.

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Speaker 2: I think the most poignant moment yesterday though, was Peter

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Speaker 2: Dutton landing in Canberra, he was met by his personal staff.

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Speaker 2: He said he won't comment on who should be the

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Speaker 2: Liberal leader. Instead, he'll maintain a graceful silence and here's

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Speaker 2: plenty of other things to do outside politics. We certainly

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Speaker 2: wish him well. Shifting to the National Party, which pretty

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Speaker 2: much held onto most of its seats last weekend. So

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Speaker 2: of the Conservatives, the National certainly outperformed the Libs. That

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Speaker 2: hasn't stopped in fighting. Queen Queensland NAT's MP Colin Boyce

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Speaker 2: called for party leader David Little Proud to stand down,

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Speaker 2: calling him arrogant, particularly around his response to the shell

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Speaker 2: lacking that the coalition got.

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Speaker 1: Just quickly Shan The Corporate Regulator has ordered Macquarie Bank

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Speaker 1: to appoint an independent expert to review its futures and

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Speaker 1: derivatives trading business and improved compliance, criticizing the group for

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Speaker 1: quote ineffective's ineffective supervision of trading desks. I might have

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Speaker 1: been a bit unfair asking you to do this quite quickly,

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Speaker 1: because there's a fair bit in this well.

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Speaker 2: Yes. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission said it has

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Speaker 2: identified nine areas of concerns over the past eighty months.

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Speaker 2: It's put extra conditions on Macquarie Bank. Stuff around like

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Speaker 2: poor change management practices, unclear roles and responsibilities, incomplete understanding

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Speaker 2: of its own processes and controls around data governance. When

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Speaker 2: you're dealing with millions and tens of millions and hundre

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Speaker 2: of millions of dollars, these sorts of controls and processes

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Speaker 2: are really important, and that's what ACIK is worried about

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Speaker 2: at Macquarie Bank.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Now, sales growth at market Darling JB hi Fi

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Speaker 1: has slowed somewhat, with the groups Good Guys and E

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Speaker 1: and S brand being challenged by lower consumer spending.

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Speaker 2: Marsh quarter sales grew on a same store sales basis

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Speaker 2: by six percent. Now that's not bad, it's decent in fact,

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Speaker 2: but the faster growth came in January. It had slowed

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Speaker 2: significantly by March. That new sent JB High Fire's share

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Speaker 2: price down. It was off a couple of percent. By

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Speaker 2: the close, it was only down about half percent. Another

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Speaker 2: retailer to report half year sales growth yesterday was online

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Speaker 2: furniture company Temple and Webster. It said sales growth had

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Speaker 2: risen to eighteen percent. Sales fantastic, not as good as expectations.

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Speaker 2: Its share price fell eight percent. CEO Mark Calter had

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Speaker 2: some interesting comments about the US China tariff war. He said,

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Speaker 2: it's actually beneficial to the business at this point because

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Speaker 2: inbound shipping rates have fallen. When they're looking forward and

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Speaker 2: getting stuff out of China and places like that, the

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Speaker 2: actual transport costs have fallen.

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Speaker 1: Sean I mentioned this next one at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. Tabcorp has gained regulatory approval to trial live

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Speaker 1: betting on its apps in pubs and clubs, a move

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Speaker 1: that CEO Gillan McLoughlin says is the future of wagering.

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Speaker 2: So he said a trial will take place from today

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Speaker 2: into New South Wales pubs, whereby punters can use the

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Speaker 2: app to place a bet during an event. Until now,

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Speaker 2: betting during live events is only available if a punter

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Speaker 2: uses a self service terminal or speaks directly to a

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Speaker 2: TAB operator in personal contacts the call center. It's actually

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Speaker 2: a bit onerous to do that. About four percent of

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Speaker 2: tabs turnover comes from in play betting, so if there's

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Speaker 2: a football game on, you're betting after the whistle has

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Speaker 2: been blown. That's what we're talking about only four percent

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Speaker 2: of that tabs turnover from that sort of betting. In

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Speaker 2: the US it's more than fifty percent, so it could

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Speaker 2: be a big move for TAB Corp. Now tab Corp

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Speaker 2: has access to thirty seven hundred pubs and clubs under

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Speaker 2: retail license agreements in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia,

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Speaker 2: Queensland and the Northern Territory. Always seen as a bit

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Speaker 2: onerous on TAB Corp. But what they've done, in congratulations

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Speaker 2: to Gilan McLoughlin, is have actually created this app. When

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Speaker 2: people are in these pubs and clubs, they can actually

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Speaker 2: bet live. So it'd be very interesting to see how

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Speaker 2: it goes. Tab Corp's share price jump to six percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: How about this one Sean. A law firm has been

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Speaker 1: fined more than fifty thousand dollars for forcing a junior

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Speaker 1: lawyer to work up to twenty four hour days and

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Speaker 1: even watch an ice hockey movie at one am so

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Speaker 1: she could understand her boss's philosophical position.

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Speaker 2: Melbourne Magistrates Court ruled law firm Eurydite Legal breached workplace

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Speaker 2: laws through its egregious all nighters in seventy nine hour

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Speaker 2: work weeks that exacerbated the first time lawyer's medical condition

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Speaker 2: forced her to work on the day of her ex

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Speaker 2: partner's funeral. According to report in the finn Review Magistrate

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Speaker 2: casherin Force, it found Eurydite required her to work days

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Speaker 2: ranging from twelve to eighteen hours in two twenty four

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Speaker 2: hour days. In her first week, the lawyer worked at Saturday,

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Speaker 2: didn't go home that night, worked from twelve pm to

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Speaker 2: twelve pm. The following day, she was told she'd be

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Speaker 2: working in a hotel room rather than going home. She

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Speaker 2: was forced to share a bed with the office manager.

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Speaker 2: She worked from nine am to five thirty am. While working,

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Speaker 2: the court heard her boss, Cheves Cuskel. While working the

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Speaker 2: court heard her boss, Cheves Kutzel, lectured her about classics, history, philosophy,

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Speaker 2: world religion, management style and his superior IQ even forced

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Speaker 2: to watch a movie which he said reflected his views. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: the law firm has been de registered, so unfortunately, the

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Speaker 2: junior lawyer is unlikely to see any money from the action.

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Speaker 1: Jeeves turn into international news. Now Sean India conducted targeted

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Speaker 1: military strikes against Pakistan which sat it shot down five

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Speaker 1: Indian jets and retaliation. These are tip for tap blows

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Speaker 1: after a militant attack last month in Kashmir that killed

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Speaker 1: twenty six people.

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Speaker 2: India said early on Wednesday that it conducted a precise

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Speaker 2: and restrained response that was designed to be non escalatory

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Speaker 2: in nature. According to Bloomberg, it said that it only

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Speaker 2: targeted known terror camps and hit no Pakistani civilian, economic,

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Speaker 2: or military targets. Now Pakistan disputes that statement. The Pakistani

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Speaker 2: Defense minister said his country's military shot down five Indian

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Speaker 2: jets and took an unknown number of Indian soldiers' prisoners.

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Speaker 2: The skirmish is not really a surprise unless had been

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Speaker 2: expecting a response from India to killings, to the killings

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Speaker 2: in Kashmir, but it is very scary.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sewan, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Karney visited the White

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Speaker 1: House yesterday for his first talks with Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: told the US president that Canada would never be for sale.

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Speaker 2: Karni was elected late last month mostly on his stance

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Speaker 2: standing up to Donald Trump. Trump, of course, has imposed

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Speaker 2: tariffs and Canada talked about XI the country two leaders.

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Speaker 2: I don't know whether you saw it. Yesterday, they showed

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Speaker 2: little animosity during an open session at the Oval office.

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Speaker 2: They both really praised each other. Then there were these

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Speaker 2: little barbs. So Trump initially said the two sides wouldn't

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Speaker 2: be discussing Canada becoming part of the United States, then

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Speaker 2: went on to say it would be a wonderful marriage.

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Speaker 2: Carney put down the idea firmly. I quote him, it's

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Speaker 2: not for sale. It won't be for sale ever. Trump's retort,

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Speaker 2: never say never, Never say never.

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Speaker 1: The other line that I enjoyed was Trump saying to Carney,

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Speaker 1: I think I was probably the greatest thing that ever

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Speaker 1: happened to him, but I can't take full credit. It

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Speaker 1: was probably one of the greatest comebacks in the history

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Speaker 1: of politics, maybe even greater than mine. It actually feels

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Speaker 1: like there was. It was relatively good natured, even considering

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Speaker 1: the fact that there's some quite serious emotion behind this.

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Speaker 2: I wonder whether Donald Trump one on one is an

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Speaker 2: entertaining person because remember it the funeral of the Queen.

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Speaker 2: Was it where he was with Brack Obama? And Obama's

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Speaker 2: criticized for great hilarity with Donald Trump. Yes, and like

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Speaker 2: it's obviously quite charming. One on one be fascinating.

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't it have a one on one private off the

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Speaker 1: record chat.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I don't think there's any difference between off

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Speaker 2: the record and on the record with Donald That's right.

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Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump's always on the record, isn't he.

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Speaker 1: All Right? Up next, Sean is the Fear and Great

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Speaker 1: Daily interview Doctor Charles Miller from A and U. This

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Speaker 1: is a very topical chat considering what we're just talking

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Speaker 1: about exactly.

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Speaker 2: We talk about the role of the US in the world,

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Speaker 2: what it means for Europe, what it means for our

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Speaker 2: region in Asia. We talk about the Pakistan India skirmish

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Speaker 2: that's going on at the moment. Charlie Charles Miller unpacks

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Speaker 2: that and it kind of gives it a very global

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Speaker 2: perspective about what's going to happen. And the world order

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Speaker 2: has changed though. What Child says is that the world

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Speaker 2: order was changing and this has more or less accelerated it.

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Speaker 2: It's a fascinating conversation.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Sure, it is coming up next in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed playlist only podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com today you would just where you sign up for

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Speaker 1: the free daily newsletter. Thank you very much, Sewan.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the eighth of May twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: that was fear and greed. Have a great day.