WEBVTT - ‘They’re panicking’: Why Dutton reneged on job cuts and work from home

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<v Speaker 1>We're listening to what people have to say. We've made

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<v Speaker 1>a mistake in relation to the policy. We apologize for

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<v Speaker 1>that and we've dealt with it.

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<v Speaker 2>We made a mistake. Tough words for any politician, but

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<v Speaker 2>in the heat of an election campaign, they can really hurt.

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<v Speaker 3>More than that.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the white BACKFLI.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this was one of your signature policies. If

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<v Speaker 3>you're making this kind of a mistake during an election campaign,

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<v Speaker 3>how can you be trusted as Prime Minister?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Sarah, I think if you have a look at

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<v Speaker 1>my track record over the last twenty year.

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<v Speaker 2>In a spectacular reversal, Peter Dutton has walked back his

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<v Speaker 2>policy to sack forty one thousand public servants, saying he'll

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<v Speaker 2>now wait for people to quit and that he will

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<v Speaker 2>no longer force those who remain back into the office.

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<v Speaker 2>But it doesn't just raise questions about sincerity, it also

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<v Speaker 2>leaves the opposition with a giant black hole when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes to funding their other election promises. From Schwartz Media,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM Today. Jason Kotsugus

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<v Speaker 2>on the panic inside the coalition and what it means

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<v Speaker 2>for Peter Dunn's leadership. It's Tuesday, April eight, So, Jason,

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<v Speaker 2>we've just seen the Coalition backflip on a major policy

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<v Speaker 2>promise only a week in to the election campaign, and

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<v Speaker 2>this was around forcing public servants to go back to

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<v Speaker 2>the office. So why do you think ultimately the Coalition

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<v Speaker 2>decided to walk this back.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think this policy was killing the Coalition electorally,

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<v Speaker 4>and the polling over the last ten days has showed

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<v Speaker 4>that this is not just very unpopular in Canberra, but

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<v Speaker 4>it's unpopular right across the country as people who work

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<v Speaker 4>from home in the private sector worry that their employers

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<v Speaker 4>will decide that if the federal government is forcing workers

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<v Speaker 4>back to the office, then they will force their own

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<v Speaker 4>workers back to the office too. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 4>have got used to working from home during COVID. They've

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<v Speaker 4>built their working lives around being able to work from home.

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<v Speaker 4>It's proved to be very successful for many families, and

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<v Speaker 4>the idea that Peter Dutton would do something that could

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<v Speaker 4>threaten those working arrangements has really started to affect the

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<v Speaker 4>way people will vote in the upcoming election, and I

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<v Speaker 4>think that's what the Coalition is seeing in their polling,

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<v Speaker 4>and they've decided that they just can't hang on to

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<v Speaker 4>this policy any longer.

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<v Speaker 2>And let's talk more about the second part of this

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<v Speaker 2>cuts to the public sector. So Dutton is saying that

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<v Speaker 2>he does still want forty one thousand public servants to leave,

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<v Speaker 2>but as you said, not through forced redundancies, through natural attrition,

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<v Speaker 2>and are hiring freeze. So is that even possible? Are

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<v Speaker 2>there forty one thousand workers Jason who want to quit?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, great question. It's hard to see forty one thousand

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<v Speaker 4>people wanting to quit given that forty one thousand people

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<v Speaker 4>have just been employed or added to the Australian public

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<v Speaker 4>service ranks right across the country. I guess sacking public

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<v Speaker 4>servants has been a key part of Peter Dutton's message

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<v Speaker 4>for the last year and a half. He hasn't just

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<v Speaker 4>said it once, He's said it countless times.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, reverse labors increase of forty one thousand Canbra public

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<v Speaker 1>servants because it will save about seven billion dollars a year.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think any Australian can say that their lives

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<v Speaker 1>are easier in terms of their interactions with government agencies

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<v Speaker 1>because of thirty six thousand new public servants being employed

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<v Speaker 1>in Canberra.

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<v Speaker 4>And he's never talked about attrition or hiring freezers. It's

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<v Speaker 4>always been sacking public servants. And I think the reason

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<v Speaker 4>he's been saying that is because he thinks it will

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<v Speaker 4>do well with those middle class voters struggling with cost

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<v Speaker 4>of living pain in sort of outer suburban seats around

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<v Speaker 4>the country who have this idea that most public servants

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<v Speaker 4>are just sitting on their bums in camera not doing much.

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<v Speaker 4>But I think since Elon Musk and Donald Trump started

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<v Speaker 4>to literally take a chainsaw to the public service in Washington,

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<v Speaker 4>this is.

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<v Speaker 3>The chainsaw for bureaucracy.

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<v Speaker 4>People have started to feel less certain that this might

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<v Speaker 4>be a good idea. I guess one of the other

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<v Speaker 4>things that Peter Dutton has been doing is saying that

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<v Speaker 4>all of these public servants that he's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>sacking are in Canberra, and Peter Dutton doesn't mind denigrating Canberra.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's another thing that he thinks will play

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<v Speaker 4>well with the voters in outer suburban seats in the

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<v Speaker 4>bigger cities. But the problem is that most of the

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<v Speaker 4>public servants who have been added to the ranks of

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<v Speaker 4>the public service are not actually based in Canberra. These

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<v Speaker 4>are people who are being employed in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide,

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<v Speaker 4>regional centers like Albury, Wodonga and Woollongong, and these are

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<v Speaker 4>all key electorates that the Coalition needs to win and

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's really studying to hurt him.

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<v Speaker 2>And you mentioned those comparisons to Trump and Musk. Does

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<v Speaker 2>this about face? Does this tell you that perhaps that

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<v Speaker 2>is starting to land with vhotos and perhaps Dutton and

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<v Speaker 2>his team are becoming worried about being compared.

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<v Speaker 4>I think absolutely, because everywhere you look right now there

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<v Speaker 4>are reminders of the havoc that Donald Trump is causing,

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<v Speaker 4>not just here in Australia but around the world. The

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<v Speaker 4>Australian stock market is plunging, Global stock markets are plunging,

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<v Speaker 4>The Australian dollar has dropped below sixty US cents. There's

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<v Speaker 4>all these reminders that Donald Trump is an agent of chaos.

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<v Speaker 4>And every time people think of Donald Trump, perhaps they're

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<v Speaker 4>also thinking of how much Peter Dutton has wanted to

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<v Speaker 4>be like Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Joined with the Prime Minister and on behalf of the coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>I congratulate to the forty fifth President of the United States.

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<v Speaker 4>When Donald Trump was elected, Peter Dutton was very quick

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<v Speaker 4>to say how happy he was about that.

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump is not somebody to be scared of, but

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<v Speaker 1>somebody that we can work very closely with. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>exactly what we will do, is to Speaker.

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<v Speaker 4>He's talked about how much he has agreed with many

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<v Speaker 4>of the policies that Donald Trump is implementing, and the

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<v Speaker 4>government has picked up on this. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has

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<v Speaker 4>called Peter Dutton Dogie Dutton. This is Dogie Dutton taking

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<v Speaker 4>his cues, his instructions and his policies straight from the US.

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<v Speaker 4>And I guess this does actually help the Prime Minister.

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<v Speaker 4>As one person said to me, Anthony Albanezi is the

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<v Speaker 4>boring guy off the piss who won't crash the car.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think this helps the Labor Party project Anthony

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<v Speaker 4>Obinezi as a stable alternative to Peter Dutton. He's not

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<v Speaker 4>going to create the kind of chaos that Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 4>is creating and that Peter Dutton might create too if

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<v Speaker 4>he's allowed to follow in Donald Trump's footsteps.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up after the break, how many seats does Dutton

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<v Speaker 2>need to win to keep his job?

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<v Speaker 3>Hi, I'm Daniel James seven Am tells stories that need

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<v Speaker 3>it is.

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<v Speaker 2>Pretty unusual to hear Peter Dutton publicly apologize to sound

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<v Speaker 2>so contrite. How do you think that will land with voters?

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's very damaging for Peter Dutton because, as

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<v Speaker 4>you say, it's so rare to hear a politician apologize

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<v Speaker 4>like this admit that they got something completely wrong. And

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<v Speaker 4>I think it does really undermine Peter Dutton's campaign because

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<v Speaker 4>I guess most people will think, well, he's just saying

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<v Speaker 4>that now to try to corterize the damage that his

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<v Speaker 4>policy has been doing to his election campaign. But if

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<v Speaker 4>he was to win the election, he might just turn

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<v Speaker 4>around and decide, well, I'll implement all those things I

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<v Speaker 4>really wanted to implement anyway, and not keep his promise

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<v Speaker 4>to dump these policies. We know Dutton sincerely believes what

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<v Speaker 4>he's been saying. Because he's been saying it for so long,

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<v Speaker 4>to just turn around and quickly try to sort of

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<v Speaker 4>backtrack is probably going to be unconvincing for many voters.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think one of the reasons that a backflip

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<v Speaker 2>like this is so surprising is because the coalition has

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<v Speaker 2>had years to work out what they want to fight

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<v Speaker 2>this election on. So to announce and then retract something

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<v Speaker 2>in the space of a week points to a lack

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<v Speaker 2>of strategy. What does it say to you, Jason, about

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<v Speaker 2>what is actually going on behind the scenes in the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think they're panicking, that's what's happening behind the scenes,

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<v Speaker 4>that the polling is so bad that not only will

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<v Speaker 4>they not win as many seats as they expected, they

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<v Speaker 4>might not win any seats at all, and we might

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<v Speaker 4>see Anthony Elberenezi returned with a bigger majority than he

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<v Speaker 4>has now. I think that's the sort of things that

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<v Speaker 4>must be going through the minds of coalition strategists right

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<v Speaker 4>now for them to do a backflip as big as

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<v Speaker 4>this one, Because it's not just the symbolism of cutting

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<v Speaker 4>public servants, it's all the money that they were going

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<v Speaker 4>to save by doing that and us to fund other

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<v Speaker 4>policies like the coalitions planned for nuclear energy. So to

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<v Speaker 4>pull this policy out it creates all these follow on

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<v Speaker 4>problems for him because how is he going to pay

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<v Speaker 4>for all these other promises that he's made if he's

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<v Speaker 4>not getting the six billion dollars a year in savings

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<v Speaker 4>that he's promised. And I think a key problem for

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<v Speaker 4>Peter Dutton is that he's raised the expectation among his

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<v Speaker 4>backbench that he really could win this election. And as

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<v Speaker 4>one Liberal MP told me, we've spent all these years

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<v Speaker 4>not really doing any hard policy work and that it's

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<v Speaker 4>really coming back to bite them.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's interesting. So if Dunne and his team have

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<v Speaker 2>decided that talking about public service cuts and forcing people

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<v Speaker 2>to work from the office are not topics that will

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<v Speaker 2>vote well for them, what would this election be fought on?

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<v Speaker 2>In an ideal world for Dunton if things were going well.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think Peter Dutton imagine that he would fight

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<v Speaker 4>this election campaign on all the things that Albanesi has

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<v Speaker 4>failed to deliver, and top of that list is alleviating

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<v Speaker 4>the cost of living pain. The first question that Peter

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<v Speaker 4>Dutton asked of the Prime Minister in this term was

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<v Speaker 4>would Labour's promise to lower power bills by two hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and seventy five dollars? Would that promise be delivered?

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<v Speaker 1>Where Anthony Albanezi promised at the last election that there

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<v Speaker 1>would be a two hundred and seventy five dollars decrease

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<v Speaker 1>in your power bill. Instead there's been a thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 1>increase in your power bill. But how much higher will

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<v Speaker 1>your electricity prices go? Under this prime minister?

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<v Speaker 4>Every question time just about he gets up and asks

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<v Speaker 4>the Prime Minister about this promise on power bills. And

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<v Speaker 4>while Peter Dutton has got a lot of mileage out

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<v Speaker 4>of that, at the same time he hasn't sort of

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<v Speaker 4>backed it up with any real kind of policy development.

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<v Speaker 4>And now that the scrutiny is on Peter Dutton during

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<v Speaker 4>this election campaign, he has to sort of come up

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<v Speaker 4>with his own answers about how he would lower cost

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<v Speaker 4>of living and he doesn't really seem to have the answers.

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<v Speaker 2>And you mentioned, Jason that there was at one point

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<v Speaker 2>this expectation that Dutton might actually be able to win

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<v Speaker 2>this election, and so seeing that potentially evaporating is now

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<v Speaker 2>becoming damaging for him, But I wonder how damaging could

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<v Speaker 2>it be. Will Dutton remain leader if the coalition does lose.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think the first thing here is that Coalition

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<v Speaker 4>MPs are talking about who will be leader after the election,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think that suggests firstly, they don't expect Peter

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<v Speaker 4>Dutton to win this election, and the question is becoming, well,

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<v Speaker 4>how many seats does Peter Dutton have to win in

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<v Speaker 4>order to save and hold on to his leadership.

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<v Speaker 2>What's the magic number? Then?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think the minimum number of seats he has

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<v Speaker 4>to win is ten. Peter Dutton doesn't have to win

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<v Speaker 4>the election. This was always going to be a two

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<v Speaker 4>term strategy, but I think he does need to improve

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<v Speaker 4>the coalition's position, and just winning back five seats I

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<v Speaker 4>don't think that's enough. That shows that Peter Dutton is

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<v Speaker 4>pretty unpopular. But I think if he manages to win

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<v Speaker 4>ten seats then that does give him a reasonably solid

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<v Speaker 4>floor from which to launch the campaign for the twenty

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<v Speaker 4>twenty eight election. But the way the campaign's going right now,

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<v Speaker 4>he might not win five seats at all. He might

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<v Speaker 4>lose a seat or two and go backwards. And if

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<v Speaker 4>that happens then I think Peter Dutton's leadership really will

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<v Speaker 4>be on life support. One thing that Peter Dutton has

0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.720
<v Speaker 4>going for him is that there's no real alternative yet

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 4>as to who would lead the coalition. There are people

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.520
<v Speaker 4>like Susan Lee, the deputy leader, Dan Tee, and the

0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 4>Immigration spokesman. They're often sort of talked about as possible

0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:55.199
<v Speaker 4>alternative leaders. The defense spokesperson Andrew Hasty from Western Australia,

0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:57.360
<v Speaker 4>I think, is another one that could be seen as

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:02.200
<v Speaker 4>a potential leader, But right now real obvious alternative. And

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<v Speaker 4>I think if Peter Dutton does perform very badly in

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<v Speaker 4>this election campaign, he'll probably still hang onto the leadership

0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 4>for another year. It won't happen immediately.

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:14.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, Jason, thank you so much for your time. It's

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:15.440
<v Speaker 2>been great to chat.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks Rby, always enjoy talking with you.

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<v Speaker 2>Also in the news today, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said

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<v Speaker 2>he doesn't think our economy will fall into a recession

0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 2>in the face of Trump's tariffs. The Treasury's own modeling

0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 2>of the expected impacts forecast the economy will be affected

0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 2>more modestly than other nations, while still expecting slower growth. Meanwhile,

0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 2>the Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest value under

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 2>the US dollar since before the pandemic, dropping from sixty

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.880
<v Speaker 2>four US since last Wednesday to just under sixty cents,

0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 2>and a New South Wales's Upper House inquiry into the

0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 2>fake caravan terrorism plot has revealed that a senior New

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.480
<v Speaker 2>South Wales police officer was asked to sign a non

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.320
<v Speaker 2>disclosure agreement after being informed by the AFP that the

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:11.080
<v Speaker 2>plot was fake. The inquiry is investigating whether the state

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<v Speaker 2>Parliament was misled before rushing through hate speech and anti

0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:18.200
<v Speaker 2>protest laws. The laws were passed on February twenty, with

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<v Speaker 2>the terrorism plot not publicly discredited until February twenty one.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. See you tomorrow.