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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm christinamio.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, September thirty. A hung parliament is looking more

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Speaker 1: likely at the next election as Labour's approval rating slides

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Speaker 1: in key states. New data from Newspoll shows the coalition

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Speaker 1: is also struggling to drum up support. You can read

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Speaker 1: our experts state by state analysis of those new numbers

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Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dot au. Queensland's

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Speaker 1: courts will narrow the scope of DNA testing in an

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Speaker 1: attempt to clear a backlog of rape and murder cases.

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Speaker 1: More than one hundred major crime cases are languishing in

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Speaker 1: the forensic testing queue as the state run lab struggles

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Speaker 1: to retest samples from the more than forty thousand cases

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Speaker 1: caught up in the nation's biggest ever DNA disaster. The

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Speaker 1: Middle East is tittering on a knife's edge after Hesbal

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Speaker 1: alider Hassan Nasrallah was killed by a targeted Israeli airstrike

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Speaker 1: on Saturday. Now the world is waiting to see if

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Speaker 1: Hesbela's powerful backup Iran will retaliate. That's today's episode. For

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Speaker 1: days Now, cities and towns across Lebanon have been rocked

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Speaker 1: by explosions for days. Protesters in nearby Iran and Yemen

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Speaker 1: have rallied against the deadly Israeli air strikes, and now

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Speaker 1: for three days from today, the streets will quiet, Flags

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Speaker 1: around Lebanon will fly at half mast, and public buildings

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Speaker 1: will close. On Monday morning, an official nationwide morning period

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Speaker 1: will begin. Following the death of one of Lebanon's fiery

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Speaker 1: and long standing political leaders.

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Speaker 2: HESBLA has confirmed its leader, hazard Nazrula, is dead. The

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Speaker 2: Israeli Defense Force says it targeted at the nerve center

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Speaker 2: of HESBLA headquarters in Beirut in a fresh wave of strikes.

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Speaker 1: Her son, Nozrala, was thirty two years old when he

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Speaker 1: became Hesbeala's secretary General. He was appointed after his predecessor,

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Speaker 1: Abbas al Maasawi was killed by Israeli forces in nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety two. In the subsequent three decades, Nzralla transformed the

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Speaker 1: Shia Muslim group from a guerrilla militia to a political

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Speaker 1: force known as the Party of God.

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Speaker 3: Akadmamulf Halaym was.

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Speaker 1: His singular focus was on the eradication of Israel and

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Speaker 1: the United States from Lebanon, and his career has been

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Speaker 1: defined by conflict with his nation's southern neighbour. He's credited

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Speaker 1: with ending eighteen years of Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon

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Speaker 1: and was declared the winner of a thirty four day

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Speaker 1: war with Israel in two thousand and six, despite the

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Speaker 1: extensive damage inflicted upon Lebanese forces and infrastructure, and Hesbela

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Speaker 1: has sporadically joined the assault on Israel following a deadly

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Speaker 1: invasion by Hamas on October seven, launching thousands of missiles

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Speaker 1: across the border in a show of solidarity with the

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Speaker 1: terrorist group. A charismatic leader and a shrewd strategist, Nozrella

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Speaker 1: spent his final years as a recluse, broadcasting speeches and

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Speaker 1: public addresses from secret locations out of fear he would

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Speaker 1: be assassinated if he appeared in public. In his final

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Speaker 1: broadcast on September nineteen, Nozrella condemned Israel's attack on pages

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Speaker 1: and walkie talkies used by Hesbela fighters and vowed retaliation.

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Speaker 3: Mahamakan Wa La Kumana, the Al Kabila and Masa Lamputna

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Speaker 3: Vale and Charlah helptl Aadu, the Jeshladum al ador.

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Speaker 4: I think this is an important victory for Israel. The

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Speaker 4: sophistication and effectiveness of Israel's entire operation over this period

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Speaker 4: has been extraordinary.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor.

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Speaker 4: They virtually destroyed the entirety of Hesbela's leadership, and it

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Speaker 4: restores the mystique of Israeli power throughout the region, the

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Speaker 4: sense that Israeli intelligence is unfathomable and unstoppable. And it

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Speaker 4: doesn't mean the end of Hezbollah, but it's a tremendous

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Speaker 4: blow to Hesbelah and a tremendous victory for Israel.

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Speaker 1: And what's the significance of this moment in the conflict

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East? Is this a start of something bigger.

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Speaker 4: Israel has a lot of strategic objectives in what it's

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Speaker 4: doing at the moment. It's operating on many levels at once,

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Speaker 4: but one of its objectives is to destroy the so

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Speaker 4: called ring of fire that Iran has created around it

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Speaker 4: with its many proxy horses. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon

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Speaker 4: and Hamas in Magaza. Strip Israel has destroyed Hamas as

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Speaker 4: a military force, and it is tremendously degrading Hezbolah. That

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Speaker 4: not only makes Israel more secure, but it reduces Iran's

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Speaker 4: strategic power. So these are very big changes in the

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Speaker 4: regional power equations. They don't settle things for ever more,

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Speaker 4: nothing ever does in the Middle East, but they're big

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Speaker 4: changes in themselves.

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Speaker 1: Iran has backed Hesbela from the get go, training soldiers

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Speaker 1: and funneling billions of dollars of funding to Lebanon. In

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Speaker 1: a statement released by the Israeli Defense Force, Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had settled the score with Hesbelah,

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Speaker 1: and he issued a warning to Iran, saying nowhere was

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Speaker 1: beyond the IDF's reach. The question now is if and

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Speaker 1: how Iran retaliates for the death of one of its

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Speaker 1: closest allies.

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Speaker 4: I don't expect Iran to do all that much, to

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Speaker 4: be honest, for a couple of reasons. First of all,

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Speaker 4: Iran has always been happy to fight to the last Palestinian,

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Speaker 4: the last Lebanese, and the last Arab in its battles

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Speaker 4: against Israel. It doesn't like fighting itself. And because really

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Speaker 4: of the weakness of Joe Biden's administration in Washington, Iran

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Speaker 4: has been able to deploy all these proxies in really

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Speaker 4: violent actions, and Iran hasn't paid any penalty at all. Now,

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Speaker 4: if Iran takes military action against Israel, it's hard to

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Speaker 4: know what that action would be, but the consequences for

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Speaker 4: Iran would be horrendous. I mean, Israel is re establishing

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Speaker 4: the credibility of its deterrance. Here. De terrance stops war.

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Speaker 4: If you want peace, prepared for war, and if you

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Speaker 4: are very well armed, people leave you alone. But for

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Speaker 4: de terrance to work, it has to live actively in

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Speaker 4: the minds of your enemies. And I think if Iran

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Speaker 4: attacks Israel right now, three things are likely. First, Israel

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Speaker 4: will strike Iran, and it will do so very hard. Secondly,

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Speaker 4: the first thing Israel will attack will be Around's nuclear facilities,

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Speaker 4: so they'll be destroyed in a minute. And then thirdly,

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Speaker 4: it's very likely that the Americans would get involved, and

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Speaker 4: this can work in a lot of different ways. The

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Speaker 4: Americans certainly won't put boots on the ground to help

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Speaker 4: the Israeli there's no chance of that, but they will

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Speaker 4: help them in intercepting missiles that might come from Iran,

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Speaker 4: and they may very well help them with direct strikes

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Speaker 4: on Iran, and if push comes to shove, Biden will

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Speaker 4: apply force. So put all that together, and there are

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Speaker 4: a lot of arguments for Iran being pretty judicious and

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Speaker 4: cautious here blood curdling rhetoric. Anything can happen, but I'd

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Speaker 4: be surprised if Iran initiated a major war anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, what's Israel's next move? Subscribe us to the Australian.

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Speaker 1: Get access to this kind of detailed analysis around the clock.

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Speaker 1: Check us out at the Australian dot com and we'll

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Speaker 1: be back after the break.

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Speaker 5: As long as Kizballah chooses the path of war, Israel

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Speaker 5: has no choice, and Israel has every right to remove

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Speaker 5: this threat and return our citizens to their home safely.

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Speaker 5: And that's exactly what we're doing.

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Speaker 1: This is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He's speaking at

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Speaker 1: a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.

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Speaker 5: Ladies and gentlemen, Israel has made its choice. We seek

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Speaker 5: to move forward to a bright age of prosperity and peace.

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Speaker 5: Iran and its proxies have also made their choice. They

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Speaker 5: want to move back to a dark age of terror

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Speaker 5: and war. And now I have a question, and I

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Speaker 5: pose that question to you, what choice will you make?

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Speaker 1: A day earlier, Netanyah who rejected a twenty one day

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Speaker 1: cease fire deal proposed by France and the United States

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Speaker 1: designed to prevent the Middle Eastern conflict from spiraling into

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Speaker 1: an all out war, and within hours of that historic speech,

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Speaker 1: he ordered the massive strike on Hesbeala's headquarters that killed

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Speaker 1: Hassan Nazraalah. US President Joe Biden said Nasralla's death is

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Speaker 1: a measure of justice for his many civilian victims, and

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Speaker 1: said ultimately he hopes the conflict can be de escalated

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Speaker 1: through diplomatic endeavors. Biden's staunch support of Israel may explain

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Speaker 1: the timing of Israel's assault on Lebanon. Here's Greg Sheridan.

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Speaker 4: Yes, so Biden is a mixed grill. Of course, Biden

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Speaker 4: is a lifelong friend of Israel, and he's an old

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Speaker 4: style democrat. I think he's a dithering, pretty hopeless president,

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Speaker 4: but he lets the American system operate, and his instincts

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Speaker 4: solidarity with American allies, of which Israel called is a

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Speaker 4: top usli and also solidarity for Israel, solidarity for the

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Speaker 4: only democracy in the Middle East. Kamala Harris has none

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Speaker 4: of that. She has none of Joe Biden's pro Israel

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Speaker 4: outlook in her foreign policy makeup, in so far as

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Speaker 4: she has any foreign policy views. Now, I think Israel

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Speaker 4: is thinking in part that it wants to restructure the

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Speaker 4: security environment around it. It wants to get rid of

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Speaker 4: Iran's ring of fire, and it wants to change the

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Speaker 4: equation for Iran in terms of cost benefit for any

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Speaker 4: future conflict with Israel. And I'm sure it wants to

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Speaker 4: do all that while Biden is still president. But if

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Speaker 4: it gets this all done while Biden is president, Harris

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Speaker 4: has to support. She certainly cannot contradict Biden on a

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Speaker 4: matter like this a minute before the election. So I

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Speaker 4: think the Israelis would be happy to get all this

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Speaker 4: done while Harris is still under Biden's discipline, and in

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Speaker 4: the context of a very tight election campaign.

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Speaker 1: Israel is now fighting a war on two fronts, up

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Speaker 1: north in Lebanon and down south in Gaza, and to date,

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Speaker 1: ceasefire deals in either conflict have evaded negotiators. So are

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Speaker 1: we getting any closer?

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Speaker 4: A lot of the ceasefire talk is blooney. Really, If

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Speaker 4: Hummas had any concern for the suffering of the Palestinian people.

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Speaker 4: It could have had a ceasefire any day at light

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Speaker 4: over the last twelve months just by releasing the hostages,

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Speaker 4: and Israel, under American guidance, offered pretty generous cease fires

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Speaker 4: all the way through, so who knows how many hostages

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Speaker 4: are left alive. With Hezbola, you can't talk about a

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Speaker 4: ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon because the Lebanese government has

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Speaker 4: no control, hardly has any influence over what Hezbola does.

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Speaker 4: So Hezbolah would have to commit to not firing any

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Speaker 4: more rockets at Israel again ever, or at least for

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Speaker 4: a long time. And since October seven, Hesbela has fired

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Speaker 4: about nine thousand rocketshones and other projectiles at Israel. So

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Speaker 4: Israel is not going to embark on an action of

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Speaker 4: this magnitude and then stop after five minutes unless there's

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Speaker 4: a very comprehensive agreement from Hesbelo. It's not a ceasepire

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Speaker 4: between two chess players and you're just asking them to

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Speaker 4: accept an honorable draw here or Somethingsbelar is fired by

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Speaker 4: a religious and cataclysmic ideology of hatred of Jews and

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Speaker 4: hatred of Israel and hatred of the West, and until

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Speaker 4: you get very big assurance and very credible assurance from

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Speaker 4: Hesbelas that it's finished with the attacks on Israel. That's

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Speaker 4: not to say Israel will go on forever, but Israel

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Speaker 4: will keep going until it feels it's achieved its military objectives.

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Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is the Australians Foreign Editor. This story is

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Speaker 1: developing quickly. For all our latest reporting and analysis, go

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Speaker 1: to the Australian dot com.

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Speaker 5: Don't a you