1 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty four. Welcome 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: to the Fast five Business News by Fear and Greed. 3 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: Will we give you the top five business stories you 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: need to know in just five minutes. I'm Michael Thompson in. 5 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: Good morning, Sean. 6 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 2: Aylmer, Good morning, Michael Shawn. 7 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 1: Five stories, five minutes, let's go. Story number one. Federal 8 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 1: budget is expected to be in deficit for at least 9 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: a decade, with a twenty two billion dollar worsening over 10 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 1: the next four years due to recent spending decisions. 11 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: That's the bottom line of the mid year Economic and 12 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: Fiscal outlook released yesterday by Federal Treasury Jim Chalmers. The 13 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: underlying deficit this financial year is due to come in 14 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: at twenty seven billion dollars, slightly better than the May 15 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 2: forecast of twenty eight billion dollars, but then worsen for 16 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: the next three years. Over the next four years to 17 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: combine deficit one hundred and forty four billion dollars, money 18 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: we have to pay back Government spending as a percent 19 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: of GDP will surge next financial year and then fall 20 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: back off balance sheet. Items don't show up in the 21 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 2: underlying budget balance that I've been talking about. AFA suggests 22 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: there will be ninety billion dollars of those over the 23 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: next four years. If you put that into the bottom line, 24 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 2: which they call the headline budget deficit, well that means 25 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: that twenty seven billion dollars for this financial year goes 26 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 2: to forty eight billion dollars. Why is there a difference. Well, 27 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 2: they're actually investments, not cost stuff like the National Broadband 28 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: Network modernization and the energy grid, but we still have 29 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 2: to pay for them. There's also more than five billion 30 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 2: dollars allocated that hasn't been announced yet think election promises. 31 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: Okay, so that's the balance sheet side of the economy. Well, 32 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: other gems we're in MAIFO this year, Sean. 33 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: In terms of the economy, the government has downgraded its 34 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 2: growth forecast this financial year to one point seventy five percent, 35 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 2: then two point two five percent in the next few years. 36 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: It's forecasting ongoing easing of inflation and wage increases, steady 37 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 2: pick up in the unemployment rate to four and a 38 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: half percent. Net migration is forecast to be three hundred 39 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 2: and forty thousand this year. That's about eighty thousand more 40 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 2: than forecast in the May budget. That'll put the government 41 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: under pressure in relation to the housing market. Another interesting one, 42 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: the government wants to acts R and D tax concessions 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 2: for tobacco and gambling companies. 44 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 1: Okay, moving on to story number two. Now Sean and 45 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 1: the ASX is on track to end the year with 46 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: fewer listed companies than it started with as more companies 47 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: opt to go private. 48 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 2: The total number of listings has fallen from twy one 49 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: hundred and ninety one at the start of the year 50 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 2: to twye and twenty one, according to global investment firm EQT. 51 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: That's a net loss of seventy listings. There were thirty 52 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 2: new listings on the AX this year compared to sixty 53 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: four D listings. The decline in the number of listings 54 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,679 Speaker 2: continues at a multi year contraction for the Australian share 55 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 2: market and shows the ongoing appeal of private markets, also 56 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 2: the ongoing appeal of Wall Street. The trend is driven 57 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,640 Speaker 2: by companies choosing to stay private longer or opting to dlist. 58 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 2: Perpetual's battle to sell two of its three businesses to 59 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: KKR and Top Shelf International courting buyers or among two 60 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: deals that hang in the balance at the moment. 61 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: Story number three National Australia Bank boss Andrew Irvine says 62 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,680 Speaker 1: the Australian economy is in reasonable shape, with the outlook 63 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: improving for small businesses and jobs. That's good news, Sean. 64 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 2: It is napheld A's aannuel general meeting yesterday. It's the 65 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 2: largest lender to SMEs. Mister Irvine said the bank will 66 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 2: continue to advocate for the sector as it faces many challenges. 67 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 2: The newly appointed CEO said the bank is optimistic despite 68 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 2: headwinds around international and domestic challenges. He expects to see 69 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 2: interest rates fall in the first half of next year, 70 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: but also realizes many customers are finding it tough right now. 71 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 2: He said the bank is working to protect its customers 72 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 2: and itself from criminals. In the past year, customers abandoned 73 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 2: more than one hundred and seventy million dollars of potential 74 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: scam payments as a result of payment alerts. Customer losses 75 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: from scams were down twenty percent last financially year compared 76 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: to the previous one. 77 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: Pretty good, I reckon, Yeah, not too bad at all, 78 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 1: Storry number four Sean speaking, not too bad. This actually 79 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: kind of goes the other way. The Aussie dollar not 80 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: having a great time. At the moment hit its lowest 81 00:03:59,280 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: level this. 82 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 2: Year yesterday, Yes, it fell to sixty three point three 83 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: five US since. The weakness and the currency all year 84 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 2: has reflected two things. One slow growth in China. Slow 85 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 2: growth in China lower demand for Australian iron or lower 86 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: demand then Chinese buyers need fewer Aussie dollars. Two, the 87 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: US dollar has been strong and we've really felt it. 88 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 2: When you measure the Aussie dollar against other currencies, which 89 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 2: is important for those heading overseas over the Christmas period, 90 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 2: it's a mixed picture. Against the end, the Aussie is 91 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 2: reasonably strong. That's why so many people are going skiing 92 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: in Japan and the next couple of months, against the 93 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 2: Euro relatively weak, making trips to that region more expensive. 94 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: Last one sean story number five. You mentioned Japan. There, 95 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 1: Nissan and Honda are in exploratory talks about a merger 96 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: of the two car makers that would create a fifty 97 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: two billion US dollar Japanese giant. 98 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 2: The two companies are considering a way to combine that 99 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 2: would help them better compete at a time when traditional 100 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 2: car makers are grappling with fast growing Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. 101 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: According to reporting Theinancial Times. The talks between Liten and 102 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 2: Honda are at an early stage, and there are concerns 103 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 2: about a possible political backlash in Japan because a merger 104 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 2: may mean job losses. Listen and Honda announced in March 105 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 2: they'd team up to develop evs and have deepened their 106 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 2: talks amid uncertainty about what Donald Trump's return as US 107 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 2: president will mean for the car industry. Their share prices 108 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,599 Speaker 2: have been really poor. This year's shares in Nissan have 109 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 2: fallen forty percent, meaning it's worth about eight billion dollars 110 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: as a company. Honda's share price has also fallen. It's 111 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 2: forty four billion dollars value as a company. The combined 112 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 2: company would rank as the world's third largest car maker 113 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,359 Speaker 2: in terms of volumes, not value, but volumes, behind Toyota 114 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: and Volkswagen. 115 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: All right, there we go, the top five business stories 116 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:45,960 Speaker 1: in five minutes. 117 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. 118 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty four. 119 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: Remember to hit follow on the podcast, and five minutes 120 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 1: isn't enough. You're going to find our longer daily show 121 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 1: called Fear and Greed Whereever you listen to podcasts, oh 122 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 1: Michael Thompson, and that was the US. By Business News, 123 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: by fear and greed. Have a great day.