1 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,969 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear & Greed business interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. It's a tough 2 00:00:08,970 --> 00:00:12,660 Sean Aylmer: time to be investing in Australian media companies. Advertising markets 3 00:00:12,660 --> 00:00:15,630 Sean Aylmer: are shrinking with a digital behemoths of Google and meta 4 00:00:15,630 --> 00:00:18,630 Sean Aylmer: taking the lion's share of budgets. And deals struck under 5 00:00:18,630 --> 00:00:21,810 Sean Aylmer: the news media bargaining code, which saw these giants paying 6 00:00:21,810 --> 00:00:24,930 Sean Aylmer: local media companies for their content featured on their sites, 7 00:00:25,170 --> 00:00:27,929 Sean Aylmer: are ending. In Meta's case, they won't be renewing their $ 8 00:00:27,929 --> 00:00:30,240 Sean Aylmer: 70 million deal. Another hit to the bottom line for 9 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,990 Sean Aylmer: struggling local operators. Add in company specific issues for both 10 00:00:33,990 --> 00:00:37,799 Sean Aylmer: Seven and Nine. The collapse bid by ARN to acquire 11 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,680 Sean Aylmer: radio rival SCA. It's been a pretty tard period for 12 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,979 Sean Aylmer: Australian medium. It's best illustrated by a recent edition of 13 00:00:43,979 --> 00:00:48,120 Sean Aylmer: the media and marketing newsletter, Unmade, written by the wonderful 14 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:51,780 Sean Aylmer: Tim Burrowes. Tim runs the Unmade Index monitoring the value 15 00:00:51,780 --> 00:00:54,360 Sean Aylmer: of Australia's media and marketing companies. He started tracking the 16 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:56,790 Sean Aylmer: sector just over two years ago and about a week 17 00:00:56,790 --> 00:01:00,330 Sean Aylmer: ago, the index hit a grimmer milestone. Its value has 18 00:01:00,330 --> 00:01:04,139 Sean Aylmer: halved since start of 2022. So what's the outlook for 19 00:01:04,139 --> 00:01:06,450 Sean Aylmer: media companies and for those who invest in them? Remember, 20 00:01:06,450 --> 00:01:09,239 Sean Aylmer: this is general information only and you should seek professional 21 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,940 Sean Aylmer: advice before making any investment decisions. Tim Burrowes is the 22 00:01:11,940 --> 00:01:15,839 Sean Aylmer: owner of media and marketing industry newsletter, Unmade. Tim, welcome 23 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:16,680 Sean Aylmer: back to Fear & Greed. 24 00:01:17,100 --> 00:01:19,440 Tim Burrowes: Sean, lovely to be back with you. 25 00:01:20,010 --> 00:01:22,408 Sean Aylmer: You have such a wonderful podcasting voice, Tim. 26 00:01:22,860 --> 00:01:24,839 Tim Burrowes: You're very kind, Sean. Thank you. 27 00:01:24,900 --> 00:01:28,739 Sean Aylmer: It's true. Tell me, the Unmade Index. Just explain what 28 00:01:28,740 --> 00:01:29,880 Sean Aylmer: it is and how you weight it. 29 00:01:30,209 --> 00:01:33,360 Tim Burrowes: Yeah, so this is something that we put together at 30 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,390 Tim Burrowes: the start of 2022, so a little bit over two 31 00:01:36,390 --> 00:01:39,900 Tim Burrowes: years ago now. And what we wanted to do was 32 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,580 Tim Burrowes: just track the, what we hoped for was success, or 33 00:01:44,580 --> 00:01:50,850 Tim Burrowes: otherwise, of the ASX listed media and marketing stocks. I 34 00:01:50,850 --> 00:01:53,190 Tim Burrowes: know some indexes just do it by price, but we 35 00:01:53,190 --> 00:01:56,580 Tim Burrowes: decided also to weight it by size of the business 36 00:01:56,580 --> 00:02:00,090 Tim Burrowes: as well. So in other words, there's a greater waiting 37 00:02:00,090 --> 00:02:03,209 Tim Burrowes: for Nine Entertainment Co as one of the bigger media 38 00:02:03,210 --> 00:02:07,380 Tim Burrowes: companies than there would be for Pure Profile, which is one of 39 00:02:08,130 --> 00:02:12,840 Tim Burrowes: the smaller data companies. But together they contribute to a 40 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,008 Tim Burrowes: classic stock index just like any others. So we started 41 00:02:17,010 --> 00:02:20,040 Tim Burrowes: off at a nominal thousand points at the start of 42 00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:24,119 Tim Burrowes: 2022, and from that point began to chart the movement 43 00:02:24,119 --> 00:02:26,310 Tim Burrowes: each day to see how the index was going. 44 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:29,910 Sean Aylmer: And so it's more or less halved in that time, 45 00:02:30,150 --> 00:02:33,929 Sean Aylmer: whereabouts, I suppose if Nine drops, it's got a heavier weighting. 46 00:02:33,929 --> 00:02:36,508 Sean Aylmer: So that's obviously going to hit the index mostly. But 47 00:02:36,508 --> 00:02:39,990 Sean Aylmer: just keeping all that in mind, which parts of the 48 00:02:39,990 --> 00:02:41,309 Sean Aylmer: index have fallen most? 49 00:02:41,788 --> 00:02:44,580 Tim Burrowes: Yeah. And you're right to say it's fallen a lot. 50 00:02:44,580 --> 00:02:49,139 Tim Burrowes: So we hit that landmark moment of, again ... I'll say 51 00:02:49,139 --> 00:02:51,630 Tim Burrowes: again. We started at a thousand points just two years 52 00:02:51,630 --> 00:02:55,258 Tim Burrowes: ago. We hit the milestone, and a bad milestone, of 53 00:02:55,258 --> 00:02:59,279 Tim Burrowes: going below 500 points just in the last few days, 54 00:02:59,490 --> 00:03:02,310 Tim Burrowes: which of course signifies that the overall value of the 55 00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:06,660 Tim Burrowes: index, the value of somebody's stocks, if they bought a 56 00:03:06,660 --> 00:03:09,719 Tim Burrowes: thousand dollars worth of stocks, it's halved. Those stocks would 57 00:03:09,719 --> 00:03:14,940 Tim Burrowes: now be worth 500 bucks. And there has been downward 58 00:03:14,940 --> 00:03:20,010 Tim Burrowes: movement across the board, but particularly exposed are the broadcasters. 59 00:03:20,610 --> 00:03:23,850 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So that's Nine and Seven specifically. There's Ten and 60 00:03:23,850 --> 00:03:25,350 Sean Aylmer: that's because Ten is not listed. 61 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,400 Tim Burrowes: Yeah, that's Nine. It's Seven. And when I say broadcasters, 62 00:03:29,610 --> 00:03:32,190 Tim Burrowes: I'm also thinking of the radio broadcast as well. So 63 00:03:32,940 --> 00:03:36,690 Tim Burrowes: ARN Media and Southern Cross Austereo, because Ten is owned 64 00:03:36,750 --> 00:03:42,210 Tim Burrowes: by Paramount. At the moment, this index doesn't track U. 65 00:03:42,210 --> 00:03:45,750 Tim Burrowes: S. based stocks, for instance. So I am kind of 66 00:03:46,110 --> 00:03:49,769 Tim Burrowes: fascinated by those, not least because I should say through 67 00:03:49,770 --> 00:03:53,069 Tim Burrowes: my own self- managed super fund, I own shares in 68 00:03:53,070 --> 00:03:57,059 Tim Burrowes: most of these companies myself, including some Paramount stocks. So I 69 00:03:57,570 --> 00:04:00,540 Tim Burrowes: do track them, but the Unmade index itself though just 70 00:04:00,540 --> 00:04:02,909 Tim Burrowes: focuses on ASX listed stocks. 71 00:04:03,030 --> 00:04:06,780 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So it demonstrates how poorly they've done. Is the 72 00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:11,280 Sean Aylmer: biggest issue confronting the broader sector still the digital giants? 73 00:04:11,699 --> 00:04:14,970 Tim Burrowes: Yeah. There's a couple of factors going on. You can't 74 00:04:14,970 --> 00:04:17,969 Tim Burrowes: discount the rise of the digital giant. So every year 75 00:04:17,970 --> 00:04:19,980 Tim Burrowes: that goes by, and this has been the story for 76 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,120 Tim Burrowes: getting on for a decade now. The percentage of advertising 77 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:29,339 Tim Burrowes: revenue that comes into the industry leaks across to the 78 00:04:29,339 --> 00:04:32,760 Tim Burrowes: platforms. There's more and more all the time. And the 79 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,969 Tim Burrowes: big impetus for that at the moment of course, is 80 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,330 Tim Burrowes: a lot of them have become increasingly interested in advertising 81 00:04:39,330 --> 00:04:43,049 Tim Burrowes: revenue when it comes to TV streaming. So we've now 82 00:04:43,049 --> 00:04:48,210 Tim Burrowes: seen the rise of obviously Netflix with an advertising tier. 83 00:04:48,900 --> 00:04:52,680 Tim Burrowes: Amazon's Prime Video is just about to launch an advertising 84 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:57,539 Tim Burrowes: tier, so is Paramount Plus, which is Ten's sister streaming 85 00:04:57,540 --> 00:05:00,029 Tim Burrowes: service. So all of a sudden there's all of this 86 00:05:00,029 --> 00:05:04,079 Tim Burrowes: extra competition for the TV players in where those TV 87 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:05,849 Tim Burrowes: advertising dollars might go. 88 00:05:06,570 --> 00:05:08,670 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Tim. We'll be back in a minute. 89 00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:18,389 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Tim Burrowes from media and marketing industry 90 00:05:18,389 --> 00:05:22,710 Sean Aylmer: newsletter, Unmade. Let's talk about Michael Miller, who's the local 91 00:05:22,770 --> 00:05:25,650 Sean Aylmer: news limited boss. He's called for a major overhaul of 92 00:05:25,650 --> 00:05:27,870 Sean Aylmer: how the tech giants are policed in Australia. It's all 93 00:05:27,870 --> 00:05:31,170 Sean Aylmer: part of the same story. I think he's even mentioned. 94 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,570 Sean Aylmer: There should be the potential to block them from operating 95 00:05:33,570 --> 00:05:37,470 Sean Aylmer: here if they breach, what he calls, their social license. 96 00:05:39,330 --> 00:05:41,969 Sean Aylmer: That's never going to fly. We get that it's impossible 97 00:05:41,969 --> 00:05:45,630 Sean Aylmer: to block them. But does he have a point that 98 00:05:45,630 --> 00:05:51,238 Sean Aylmer: these big platforms aren't playing by the rules or are 99 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,040 Sean Aylmer: the rules superseded nowadays? 100 00:05:53,550 --> 00:05:56,189 Tim Burrowes: Yeah, so as you say, Michael Miller gave a kind 101 00:05:56,190 --> 00:06:00,299 Tim Burrowes: of keynote address to the Press Club in Canberra earlier 102 00:06:00,300 --> 00:06:04,950 Tim Burrowes: this week. And one of his central points was that 103 00:06:04,950 --> 00:06:08,878 Tim Burrowes: the platforms almost have it both ways. They're able to argue, " 104 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,000 Tim Burrowes: Well, look, we should be internationally governed. There should be 105 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,660 Tim Burrowes: a set of rules that covers everyone across markets and 106 00:06:15,660 --> 00:06:17,940 Tim Burrowes: we'd love to lean into that." And his point is, " 107 00:06:17,940 --> 00:06:21,240 Tim Burrowes: Well, that'll probably never happen." So in effect, it means 108 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:25,770 Tim Burrowes: they get away with being almost sovereign states in their 109 00:06:25,770 --> 00:06:28,950 Tim Burrowes: own right was the point he made. And particularly because 110 00:06:28,950 --> 00:06:32,609 Tim Burrowes: when it comes to the way that they're governed as 111 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:35,609 Tim Burrowes: publishers, or more to the point, they're not governed as 112 00:06:35,609 --> 00:06:40,230 Tim Burrowes: publishers because there's a law in the U. S. Section 113 00:06:40,230 --> 00:06:43,560 Tim Burrowes: 230 it's called, which effectively lets them be treated like 114 00:06:43,830 --> 00:06:47,880 Tim Burrowes: carriage services where they're not responsible for the information they 115 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,070 Tim Burrowes: cover, which makes life a lot easier for them than 116 00:06:50,070 --> 00:06:53,399 Tim Burrowes: it does the publishers. But I think to Michael Miller's 117 00:06:53,580 --> 00:06:58,230 Tim Burrowes: larger point, I think we will see a battle of 118 00:06:58,230 --> 00:07:02,550 Tim Burrowes: wills of governments. And I think Australia is as interested 119 00:07:02,550 --> 00:07:06,900 Tim Burrowes: in anybody in this of how they have a say 120 00:07:07,049 --> 00:07:10,590 Tim Burrowes: in how these platforms run in each individual country. So 121 00:07:11,100 --> 00:07:14,670 Tim Burrowes: of course we saw the rise of the legislation around 122 00:07:14,670 --> 00:07:17,160 Tim Burrowes: the news media bargaining card back at the start of 123 00:07:17,580 --> 00:07:21,300 Tim Burrowes: 2021, which was what brought Google and Facebook to the 124 00:07:21,660 --> 00:07:27,329 Tim Burrowes: table and found some dollars to effectively do deals with 125 00:07:27,660 --> 00:07:30,840 Tim Burrowes: publishers. So those were the sort of things that Michael 126 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,860 Tim Burrowes: Miller was nodding towards. And I must admit. I know 127 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:40,380 Tim Burrowes: you're skeptical. I do think it is a non- zero 128 00:07:40,620 --> 00:07:44,820 Tim Burrowes: possibility that we could see the likes of Meta leave 129 00:07:44,820 --> 00:07:49,410 Tim Burrowes: the Australian market, depending what happens with designation under the 130 00:07:49,410 --> 00:07:53,340 Tim Burrowes: news media bargaining code, which is what could yet happen, 131 00:07:53,340 --> 00:07:57,510 Tim Burrowes: and I think likely to happen. There is one pathway 132 00:07:57,510 --> 00:08:00,900 Tim Burrowes: that sees Facebook decide that actually rather than set a 133 00:08:00,900 --> 00:08:03,420 Tim Burrowes: precedent for the rest of the world, they'd rather exit 134 00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:07,200 Tim Burrowes: Australia altogether. Now, I'm not saying that's the most likely 135 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,320 Tim Burrowes: outcome, but I actually can't think of another outcome that's 136 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:11,190 Tim Burrowes: more likely. 137 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:15,660 Sean Aylmer: Exit Australia. I'm not quite sure what that even means. 138 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:22,020 Tim Burrowes: Yeah. And this is where you start getting into game 139 00:08:22,020 --> 00:08:24,930 Tim Burrowes: theory, I suppose, because you have to work out which of 140 00:08:24,990 --> 00:08:27,870 Tim Burrowes: the two sides, the government or Facebook in this game 141 00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:31,770 Tim Burrowes: of chicken swerves first. But potentially what happens is that 142 00:08:32,550 --> 00:08:35,790 Tim Burrowes: the government having been advised by the ACCC, which is 143 00:08:35,790 --> 00:08:38,400 Tim Burrowes: the process going on at the moment, decides that yes, 144 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,059 Tim Burrowes: they're going to designate Facebook. That forces Facebook to come 145 00:08:42,059 --> 00:08:46,920 Tim Burrowes: to the bargaining table and negotiate with publishers for the 146 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,679 Tim Burrowes: value of the content they get. Now, the chances are 147 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,010 Tim Burrowes: at that point, the independent arbitrators, who have not been 148 00:08:53,010 --> 00:08:56,730 Tim Burrowes: appointed yet by the way. This was all so theoretical 149 00:08:56,730 --> 00:08:59,638 Tim Burrowes: that's never been in place. But they might say, " Well, 150 00:08:59,639 --> 00:09:03,090 Tim Burrowes: actually, because Facebook doesn't carry news anymore, so they don't 151 00:09:03,090 --> 00:09:05,880 Tim Burrowes: have to make a payment." But that wouldn't potentially be 152 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,370 Tim Burrowes: the end of the matter because then the ACCC could 153 00:09:08,370 --> 00:09:11,370 Tim Burrowes: step in and they've signaled this is what they might 154 00:09:11,370 --> 00:09:14,309 Tim Burrowes: be minded to do and say, " Well, that's an abuse of market 155 00:09:14,309 --> 00:09:19,890 Tim Burrowes: power, so therefore potentially it's an ongoing fine or something 156 00:09:19,890 --> 00:09:22,650 Tim Burrowes: else." Now this all plays out over months and years. 157 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,010 Tim Burrowes: But at the end of that, that's what then might 158 00:09:26,010 --> 00:09:28,800 Tim Burrowes: make Meta decide, " Well, those are rules we don't want 159 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,910 Tim Burrowes: to play by. So actually, yes, we know this market 160 00:09:32,910 --> 00:09:37,470 Tim Burrowes: might be worth maybe 5 billion to Meta, but maybe 161 00:09:37,470 --> 00:09:41,010 Tim Burrowes: the global players a bigger one." So there are places 162 00:09:41,010 --> 00:09:44,880 Tim Burrowes: to swerve, and perhaps one of those places might be 163 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:52,230 Tim Burrowes: some sort of taxation on digital income instead. But potentially 164 00:09:52,289 --> 00:09:55,439 Tim Burrowes: there still yet is just that small chance they could 165 00:09:55,439 --> 00:09:56,340 Tim Burrowes: leave the market. 166 00:09:56,730 --> 00:09:58,890 Sean Aylmer: Okay, let's go to the broadcasters. I just want to 167 00:09:58,890 --> 00:10:03,689 Sean Aylmer: mention a couple. ARN bid to buy Southern Cross Austereo. 168 00:10:03,690 --> 00:10:07,410 Sean Aylmer: Fell through after Anchorage Capital Partners pulled out. It was 169 00:10:07,410 --> 00:10:10,949 Sean Aylmer: a PE group which was going to do the deal 170 00:10:10,949 --> 00:10:14,160 Sean Aylmer: with ARN to buy SCA. Where does that leave the 171 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,240 Sean Aylmer: radio industry now? 172 00:10:15,750 --> 00:10:18,990 Tim Burrowes: Yeah. So I think Southern Cross Austereo is still in 173 00:10:18,990 --> 00:10:22,740 Tim Burrowes: play. And one of I guess the fascinating things was 174 00:10:22,740 --> 00:10:26,399 Tim Burrowes: these were two companies that were broadly about the same 175 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,299 Tim Burrowes: in size. Market capitalization of ARN, a little bit under 176 00:10:30,300 --> 00:10:34,950 Tim Burrowes: 240 million. Market capitalization of Southern Cross Austereo, a little 177 00:10:34,950 --> 00:10:39,480 Tim Burrowes: bit under 180 million. So not that dissimilar. Now, I 178 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,179 Tim Burrowes: guess the first point to make is that ARN have not given 179 00:10:42,179 --> 00:10:45,390 Tim Burrowes: up. There are lots of rumblings in the market that 180 00:10:45,390 --> 00:10:50,280 Tim Burrowes: they're going to find a replacement partner for Anchorage. And then if that 181 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:52,620 Tim Burrowes: happened, then they could have another go at trying to 182 00:10:52,620 --> 00:10:57,089 Tim Burrowes: do this very complicated deal, which would effectively break up 183 00:10:57,750 --> 00:11:00,299 Tim Burrowes: SCA for parts. They would then take the best parts 184 00:11:00,300 --> 00:11:03,059 Tim Burrowes: and then there would be this sort of Frankenstein's monster 185 00:11:03,059 --> 00:11:07,230 Tim Burrowes: of a new audio company would continue. So that's still 186 00:11:07,230 --> 00:11:11,790 Tim Burrowes: potentially in play. Another one which is on the table, 187 00:11:11,790 --> 00:11:14,700 Tim Burrowes: and they've not used the words due diligence, but they're 188 00:11:14,910 --> 00:11:18,328 Tim Burrowes: certainly in conversation, is Antony Catalano. 189 00:11:18,870 --> 00:11:21,839 Sean Aylmer: I think Antony actually put it into play himself. Normally 190 00:11:21,839 --> 00:11:26,160 Sean Aylmer: the bidder bids. In this case, I think the company 191 00:11:26,429 --> 00:11:28,950 Sean Aylmer: that was being acquired did the bidding for them, didn't they? 192 00:11:29,670 --> 00:11:32,880 Tim Burrowes: Yes. Antony Catalano has got this rather ... It's a good 193 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:36,089 Tim Burrowes: way of putting it. It's a very unusual proposal really. What he 194 00:11:36,090 --> 00:11:38,370 Tim Burrowes: effectively seems to be proposing is that he'll put most 195 00:11:38,370 --> 00:11:42,029 Tim Burrowes: of the assets of Australian Community Media, which is the 196 00:11:42,029 --> 00:11:45,150 Tim Burrowes: sort of local publishing house which he's the proprietor of 197 00:11:45,150 --> 00:11:49,800 Tim Burrowes: and co- owner of. Most of those assets would fold 198 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,010 Tim Burrowes: into SCA with this sort of vision for Southern Cross 199 00:11:53,010 --> 00:11:56,610 Tim Burrowes: Austereo rather than it going for its Pure play audio 200 00:11:56,610 --> 00:11:58,559 Tim Burrowes: future, which is what it had been talking about, would 201 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,679 Tim Burrowes: instead become this sort of regional powerhouse. So they would 202 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:07,590 Tim Burrowes: have local news publishing, local radio. They've got these diminishing 203 00:12:07,590 --> 00:12:11,550 Tim Burrowes: value, but local TV licenses. And then that might let 204 00:12:11,550 --> 00:12:16,619 Tim Burrowes: him then live out his ambitions to rebuild an alternative 205 00:12:16,619 --> 00:12:19,858 Tim Burrowes: to Domain, which is the real estate site he helped 206 00:12:19,860 --> 00:12:24,000 Tim Burrowes: build, but as a regional play of that. And part of the 207 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,540 Tim Burrowes: deal would see him taking on a much bigger slice 208 00:12:27,540 --> 00:12:31,319 Tim Burrowes: of ownership of SCA. So he would probably become the single 209 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:35,430 Tim Burrowes: biggest shareholder. At the moment, his investment vehicle has just 210 00:12:35,458 --> 00:12:38,910 Tim Burrowes: upped its investment in SCA again. So he told the 211 00:12:38,910 --> 00:12:41,370 Tim Burrowes: market earlier this week that now they're up to just 212 00:12:41,370 --> 00:12:46,349 Tim Burrowes: under 15% stake in that business. So effectively SCA in 213 00:12:46,349 --> 00:12:48,390 Tim Burrowes: some form is in play. 214 00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:51,570 Sean Aylmer: Okay. We're out of time, but I mean Nine and 215 00:12:51,570 --> 00:12:54,149 Sean Aylmer: Seven are both facing challenges that we've just talked about. 216 00:12:54,150 --> 00:12:57,179 Sean Aylmer: They've also individually, so Seven over at Spotlight program, the 217 00:12:57,179 --> 00:13:01,320 Sean Aylmer: Bruce Lehrmann saga. Nine over former news, boss Darren Wick, 218 00:13:01,530 --> 00:13:06,420 Sean Aylmer: allegations of inappropriate behavior. None of that stuff help. What 219 00:13:06,420 --> 00:13:08,880 Sean Aylmer: is the long- term prognosis for these big free to 220 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:09,659 Sean Aylmer: air channels? 221 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,170 Tim Burrowes: Look, if I was to be thinking about investing anymore 222 00:13:13,170 --> 00:13:16,080 Tim Burrowes: in television, and I'm not, the single question I'd be 223 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:19,260 Tim Burrowes: asking myself is how much of the woes of the 224 00:13:19,260 --> 00:13:23,220 Tim Burrowes: TV networks at the moment are because the advertising cycle, 225 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:25,860 Tim Burrowes: which is down, but it runs through cycles and comes 226 00:13:25,860 --> 00:13:29,608 Tim Burrowes: up, and how much is structural money that just is 227 00:13:29,609 --> 00:13:33,300 Tim Burrowes: not going to come back into traditional television again? And 228 00:13:33,300 --> 00:13:35,190 Tim Burrowes: I think that gives you your answer on what the 229 00:13:35,190 --> 00:13:36,929 Tim Burrowes: prospects of those networks are. 230 00:13:37,590 --> 00:13:39,300 Sean Aylmer: Tim, thank you for talking to Fear & Greed. 231 00:13:39,780 --> 00:13:40,860 Tim Burrowes: Always a pleasure, Sean. 232 00:13:41,429 --> 00:13:43,469 Sean Aylmer: That was Tim Burrowes, the owner of media and marketing 233 00:13:43,469 --> 00:13:47,010 Sean Aylmer: industry newsletter, Unmade. This is the Fear & Greed business interview. 234 00:13:47,010 --> 00:13:49,380 Sean Aylmer: Remember, this is general information only and you should seek 235 00:13:49,380 --> 00:13:53,010 Sean Aylmer: professional advice before making investment decisions. Join us every morning 236 00:13:53,010 --> 00:13:55,260 Sean Aylmer: for the full episode of Fear & Greed, daily business news 237 00:13:55,260 --> 00:13:57,839 Sean Aylmer: for people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Aylmer. 238 00:13:58,230 --> 00:13:58,830 Sean Aylmer: Enjoy your day.