WEBVTT - The other war front: Lebanon on the brink

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<v Speaker 1>While the world focuses on the war underway in Iran, Israel,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Gulf, there's another front Lebanon. Israel unleashed another

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<v Speaker 1>wave of intense strikes on the capitol overnight.

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<v Speaker 2>One flattened an apartment building in the center of Beirut.

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<v Speaker 1>Lebanon's Iranian BacT Shia group Hezbola, attacked Israel after a

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<v Speaker 1>joint US Israeli air strike killed Iran supreme leader Iatola

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<v Speaker 1>Ali Hamena. Hesbila launched around two hundred missiles at northern

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<v Speaker 1>Israel overnight in a coordinated attack with Iran, which launched

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<v Speaker 1>four ballistic missiles Salvos. Israel then hit back, bombing bea

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<v Speaker 1>route and domessing tens of thousands of troops on the border.

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<v Speaker 3>Israeli military has announced it began quote focused ground operations

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<v Speaker 3>in southern Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM today

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Young, editor of Carnegie's Middle East Center, blog on Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it facing a ground invasion and what is Israel's

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<v Speaker 1>plan to reshape the region. It's Friday, March twenty Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>You're in Beirute and living in the middle of this war.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you holding up and what impact is it

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<v Speaker 1>having on daily life.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we have to understand that the war in Lebanon

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<v Speaker 2>is you know, two countries side by side. Many people

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<v Speaker 2>are not living in areas, and I'm one of them,

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<v Speaker 2>are not living in areas that are being bombed. Having

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<v Speaker 2>said that, the Israelis have bombed within Beirute, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>in recent hours they bombed areas not far from here.

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's government promised retaliation has bon as intensified drone and

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<v Speaker 2>rocket attacks.

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<v Speaker 3>This was it a residential building in Central Bay Route raised.

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<v Speaker 2>But by and large, the Israeli attacks have taken place

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<v Speaker 2>primarily against areas where they say Hezuela is stationed, which

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<v Speaker 2>basically means primarily Shia areas of concentration. So it's a

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<v Speaker 2>tale of two countries. Part of the country is living

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<v Speaker 2>more or less a normal life, I mean as normal

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<v Speaker 2>as can be. But part of the country is being

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<v Speaker 2>devastated by the Israeli attacks and you have you know,

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<v Speaker 2>Abidian displaced from these areas.

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<v Speaker 4>The humanitarian situation and Lebanon has spiraled from a crisis

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<v Speaker 4>into a full blown catastrophe. That's how aid workers on

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<v Speaker 4>the ground are describing the dire situation with more than

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<v Speaker 4>a million people forced out of their homes.

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<v Speaker 1>So could you take us back a little bit to

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<v Speaker 1>how Lebanon's militant group has Belah ended up entering the wall.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, couldn't they have just set it out? Why

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<v Speaker 1>did they decide to get involved in this war?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think this was a Haswela decision. I

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<v Speaker 2>think this was an Iranian decision by a large Many,

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<v Speaker 2>including many Shiah, did not want to enter this war.

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<v Speaker 2>But it was clear that because of the ties between

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<v Speaker 2>Hasbala and Iran, it was almost impossible for Hasbala not

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<v Speaker 2>to enter the war. And we have to understand that

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four, Hasbalala's military leadership as well as

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<v Speaker 2>its political leadership, was devastated by the Israelis.

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<v Speaker 3>Israelly military says that it has assassinated all of these

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<v Speaker 3>senior Hasbala commanders. So just how has this Israeli campaign

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<v Speaker 3>been able to penetrate Hasbala security.

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<v Speaker 2>The Israelis killed its secretary General Hassan Masraala, they killed

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<v Speaker 2>two of his likely successors. So since that time, it

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<v Speaker 2>seems that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have taken a much

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<v Speaker 2>more direct control of the organization, and given the close

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<v Speaker 2>coordination between Iran and Husbalah, there also appears to be

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<v Speaker 2>even sort of tactical coordination between the two. In other words,

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<v Speaker 2>when Iran launches missiles from Iran, it's coordinating these launchers

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<v Speaker 2>with the launchers from Lebanon. So the decision to enter

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<v Speaker 2>the war was very much an Iranian decision, And there

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<v Speaker 2>are rumors in Beirut that actually the political leadership of Hasbalah,

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<v Speaker 2>even the Secretary General Naim Krassem, that they did not

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<v Speaker 2>want Hasbala to enter the conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>And for some of our listeners, could you actually give

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<v Speaker 1>us some background on who is Hesblah and how much

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<v Speaker 1>they've been weakened over the last few years of war

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<v Speaker 1>with Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>What Haswell is essentially a military political organization that the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranians essentially organized in Lebanon basically emerged in the nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>eighties and played a key role during the nineteen nineties

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<v Speaker 2>in fighting Israeli occupation of southern and Hasbullah in the

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<v Speaker 2>last two and a half decades has emerged in a

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<v Speaker 2>way as a symbol of growing Shia power in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>The party has you know, played a very key role

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<v Speaker 2>in the Lebanese state, I would say, in almost imposing

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<v Speaker 2>hegemonic control over the Lebanese state in the last fifteen years.

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<v Speaker 2>So in a way, many shiah identified with Hasbala because

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<v Speaker 2>in the sectarian Lebanese system, has Bala gave them a

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<v Speaker 2>great deal of influence and a great deal of power.

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<v Speaker 2>But Haswola has been weakened in twenty twenty four, it

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<v Speaker 2>suffered a major defeat. But we shouldn't overestimate this because

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<v Speaker 2>it's anchored in a in one of Lebanon's larger communities.

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<v Speaker 2>The party has been able to a certain extent. It

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<v Speaker 2>seems to continue paying its combatants and to re arm

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<v Speaker 2>in such a way that today it seems that they

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<v Speaker 2>are surprising the Israeles in terms of their firepower.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, Michael, as you were saying, there's division within Hesbela

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<v Speaker 1>among Lebanon's political leaders about whether or not to be

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<v Speaker 1>involved in this war, but clearly they're in the war. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it tearing the country apart politically? And do you

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<v Speaker 1>think there are any signs at all that the Lebanese

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<v Speaker 1>army would ever end up fighting Hesbela.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's not. We're not at a stage yet where

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<v Speaker 2>it's tearing the country up. There are deep divisions within

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<v Speaker 2>the country. But we have to understand that Lebanon went

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<v Speaker 2>through a very, very bloody civil war between nineteen seventy

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<v Speaker 2>five and nineteen ninety. This was once the richest part

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<v Speaker 2>of the richest city in the Middle East. Now it's

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<v Speaker 2>the front line of the war in the Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 2>there is great reluctance within the country to go back

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<v Speaker 2>to such a situation. We had an economic collapse in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty nineteen.

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<v Speaker 5>Twenty twenty, Lebanon has grappled with its worst economic crisis

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<v Speaker 5>in modern history. It's pushed tens of thousands of people

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<v Speaker 5>into poverty and triggered the largest anti government protests in

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<v Speaker 5>more than a decade.

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<v Speaker 2>Most Lebinese are worried about declining standard of living. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>there are many many problems in the country. One thing

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<v Speaker 2>we certainly did not need was a new war. So

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<v Speaker 2>there is a great deal of anger that Hasbala has

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<v Speaker 2>once again carried Lebanon into a war with Israel. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>with respect to the Lebinese army, we have to be realistic.

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<v Speaker 2>For the Lebanese army to enter into a confrontation with Hasbulah. First,

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<v Speaker 2>it does not have a decisive advantage that would allow

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<v Speaker 2>it necessarily to prevail in such a conflict. Number one.

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<v Speaker 2>Number two, we have to understand that entering into a

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<v Speaker 2>military confrontation with Hasbula would entail entering really into a

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<v Speaker 2>military confrontation with the Shiah community. Although there are many

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<v Speaker 2>Shiah who may not be happy today with what Hasbulah

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<v Speaker 2>has done, there is also a growth feeding in the

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<v Speaker 2>community that it is a community under siege. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think this would be disastrous for the army and for

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<v Speaker 2>the Lebanese state.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael. After the Gaza War, we had the ceasefire between

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<v Speaker 1>Israel and Lebanon that required that Hesbela be disarmed and

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<v Speaker 1>its forces pushed further north of the de facto border,

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<v Speaker 1>north of an area known as the Latani River. Has

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<v Speaker 1>any of that actually happened.

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<v Speaker 2>This army has well lies different than what has happened

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<v Speaker 2>up to now. The Lebanese army up to now has

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<v Speaker 2>basically removed Heswolla weapons south of the Litani River, its

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<v Speaker 2>emptied arms caches in that area. Maybe some still remain,

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<v Speaker 2>but we have to understand that part of the problem

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<v Speaker 2>is that the Lebanese army doesn't necessarily have good intelligence

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<v Speaker 2>to identify all the arms caches of Heswola, but by

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<v Speaker 2>and large the operation south of the Litani appears to

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<v Speaker 2>have been fairly successful in terms of disarmy. Is the

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanese army going to enter into mainly Shia areas of Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 2>where Hezbullah is well armed and capable of defending itself,

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<v Speaker 2>to basically disarm its members and empty its strategic arms caches,

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<v Speaker 2>by which I mean missiles and longer term weapons. This

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<v Speaker 2>would be a very different proposition than what we've seen

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<v Speaker 2>up to now, and as I said earlier, I think

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<v Speaker 2>the chances of succeeding would be much smaller, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think the Lebanese state has to be aware that it

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<v Speaker 2>would be a disaster if it could not win a

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<v Speaker 2>confrontation with Heswala. It would be disastrous for the state,

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<v Speaker 2>for the army, and it would only bolster Hesbula.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Will Israel invade Lebanon? Michael? So we now

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<v Speaker 1>have this situation with Israel bombing by route Hasbal of

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<v Speaker 1>firing rockets at Israel. What does Israel say that it's

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<v Speaker 1>trying to achieve in Lebanon, and what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing. What's their real aim?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is a good question because up to now

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<v Speaker 2>Eve and I have engaged in speculation, but it's very

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<v Speaker 2>unclear what the Israelis want to do. We heard that

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<v Speaker 2>Israel was mobilizing four hundred and fifty thousand soldiers for

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<v Speaker 2>a possible entry into Lebanon, but this doesn't indicate that

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<v Speaker 2>they're going to go through with that. There are Israeli

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<v Speaker 2>units operating in Lebanon, advancing on certain areas, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>not a major engagement. So the Israelis have said, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>that all the area south of the Lithani, and then

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<v Speaker 2>they added to that all the area south of the

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<v Speaker 2>Zaharani River, which is north of the Litani, should be

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<v Speaker 2>cleared out by the population. But up to now there

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't seem to be enough troops to really take these areas.

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<v Speaker 2>I know that within Israel there is a big debate

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<v Speaker 2>on how far the Israeli military can go. We know

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<v Speaker 2>this from you know, open press reports and commentaries by

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<v Speaker 2>people who have been to Israel speaking to the military.

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<v Speaker 2>But I really don't know what worries me and what

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can say with a fair amount of

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<v Speaker 2>certainty is that the Israelis will try to create a

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<v Speaker 2>buffer zone, almost a killing zone, probably south of the

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<v Speaker 2>Litani and basically say to the Lebanese we're staying in

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<v Speaker 2>this area until you can clear disarmed Hazwalda. But if

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<v Speaker 2>the Lebinese state cannot disarm Hasbala, then suddenly what the

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis are effectively saying is We're going to hold on

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<v Speaker 2>to Lebanese territory and you can manage north of this territory.

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<v Speaker 2>It's up to you, you know, figure it out yourself.

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<v Speaker 2>And in which case Lebanon would be left with a

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<v Speaker 2>major problem with the displaced population. You would have sectarian

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<v Speaker 2>tensions because much of the Shia population would have to

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<v Speaker 2>basically live somewhere. The Lebanese state today is very weak,

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<v Speaker 2>it's bankrupt, so you know, you would have a host

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<v Speaker 2>of problems for the Lebanese state, which has very limited

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<v Speaker 2>means to resolve.

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<v Speaker 1>Now the way this war is going, even if there's

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<v Speaker 1>a ceasefire with Iran, do you think that the Lebanon

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<v Speaker 1>Israel war that that front would continue And how do

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<v Speaker 1>you see Israel using this crisis now? Is it an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity for them to try and totally redraw the regional

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<v Speaker 1>security order.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I'm very skeptical about the Israeli ability to reshape

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<v Speaker 2>the region. My own reading of the war with Iran

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<v Speaker 2>is that it has been a failure in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>the stated objectives at the start of the war. It

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<v Speaker 2>was the idea of the Iran nuclear program, the ballistic

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<v Speaker 2>missile program, and Iran's relationship with its regional allies or proxies.

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<v Speaker 2>None of these objectives, to my mind, have been achieved.

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<v Speaker 2>But certainly the war is not over, so we have

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<v Speaker 2>to see ultimately where it leads. But I think redrawing

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<v Speaker 2>is a big word. They are trying to create what

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<v Speaker 2>they call buffer zones in Syria, in Lebanon, I think,

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<v Speaker 2>in Lebanon, and in Gaza. But buffer zones mean what

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<v Speaker 2>does it mean? It means basically, you enter into foreign

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<v Speaker 2>countries or areas not controlled by Israel and you impose

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<v Speaker 2>on these areas massive displacement destruction to create a buffer

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<v Speaker 2>between your territory and any potential threat. Does this constitute

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<v Speaker 2>redrawing the map of the region? As I said, I

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<v Speaker 2>think that the Israelis felt that they could do this

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<v Speaker 2>by bringing down the Iranian regime. I think this has

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<v Speaker 2>failed and I think the United States is now beginning

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<v Speaker 2>to realize that this operation with Iran may not be

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<v Speaker 2>a successful one, so we shouldn't overstate I think the

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis are very ambitious. They would like to impose hegemony

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<v Speaker 2>as much as possible on the region, but the lack

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<v Speaker 2>of a clear outcome in Iran doesn't show really their

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<v Speaker 2>ability to do so. So I think that in the

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<v Speaker 2>absence of this major transformation which they would like to impose,

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<v Speaker 2>what we may see them do is fall back on

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<v Speaker 2>sort of lesser objectives. But there is also a good

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<v Speaker 2>chance that the Iranians will not stop bombing the Gulf

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<v Speaker 2>States and Israel until there is acceptance that a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 2>in Iran must also include a ceasefire in Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Tomorrow on seven am, one nation's first real test since

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<v Speaker 1>it's stunning rise in the polls.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, these stupid politicians. What they go out and

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<v Speaker 3>say they're in fear of one nation, callsed right across

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<v Speaker 3>the whole country. Even this way, we've increased again in

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<v Speaker 3>our polling.

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<v Speaker 1>Some are predicting that this weekend's at South Australian election

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<v Speaker 1>will be hit by an orange wave of One Nation voters,

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<v Speaker 1>but will those poll numbers convert into actual votes. We

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<v Speaker 1>chat with the editor of in Daily, Belinda Willis, on

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<v Speaker 1>how South Australians are feeling and what the state election

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<v Speaker 1>results could tell us about One Nation's chances of winning

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<v Speaker 1>more seats across the country. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is

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<v Speaker 1>seven AM Catulator

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<v Speaker 4>WO