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Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel

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Speaker 1: people of the Eur Nation.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand.

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Speaker 2: And it's our budget Special, but I know that sounds

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Speaker 2: really boring, so let's make it something sexy like our

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Speaker 2: money for Jam cash Splash ou la la bringing the

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Speaker 2: Ring special. Just having a nice little cup of coffee

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Speaker 2: as we speak, which means I've already blown my tax cut.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Australian taxpayers, much appreciated. I was

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Speaker 2: going to talk about how Donald Trump could be destroying

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Speaker 2: Peter Dutton. Plus, every budget has a little hidden tidbit

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Speaker 2: that no one else seems to pick up on except

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Speaker 2: of course me, and I've found something that will absolutely

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Speaker 2: blow your cotton socks and might have you diving for

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Speaker 2: the nuclear bunker. So all that more coming up. So

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Speaker 2: first up, we can't ignore the budget. It's big, it's important,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of people's eyes just glaze over when

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Speaker 2: they hear about it. But not your ears. Your ears

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Speaker 2: will remain unglazed because I'm going to take you deep

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Speaker 2: into the bowels of the lock up. Now, the lock

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Speaker 2: up is what they do to journalists, which I know

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Speaker 2: a lot of politicians would like to do to a

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Speaker 2: lot of journalists every day of the year if they could.

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Speaker 2: But they lock everyone in a room. It used to

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Speaker 2: be just in Canberra. Now it's in various newsrooms around

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Speaker 2: the country with a whole bunch of Treasury officials that

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Speaker 2: monitor them, and they are deprived of their mobile phones

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Speaker 2: or communication with the outside world, and they are not

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Speaker 2: allowed to leave the lock up until the Treasurer is

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Speaker 2: on his feet in the Parliament on Budget night, and

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Speaker 2: that is usually seven point thirty. But if the Treasurer

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Speaker 2: does not get on his feet, he has to be

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Speaker 2: on his feet standing up. If he's not on his

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Speaker 2: feet until seven thirty one, you are not allowed to leave.

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Speaker 2: This means for a season professional, this means you want

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Speaker 2: to get into the lock up as late as possible

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Speaker 2: because once you're in there, you can't leave. So all

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Speaker 2: the little nerds, all the work experienced kids, all the cadets,

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Speaker 2: they get in there like, you know, one thirty, Oh

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Speaker 2: my god, it's so exciting, and by about two thirty

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Speaker 2: they're staying to regret that decision, and that's when all

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Speaker 2: the all the hacks like me wander in. Anyway, my

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Speaker 2: job for the lock up was to decode the Treasurer's speech,

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Speaker 2: as I often do. And this is where some of

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Speaker 2: the art of politics comes into handing down the budget.

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Speaker 2: It's not just dollars and cents. It's not just how

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Speaker 2: much money you're getting in your pocket or whether there's

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Speaker 2: going to be a surplus or a deficit. It's about

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Speaker 2: setting the national mood and telling Australians how they should

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Speaker 2: feel without actually telling them how they should feel. So

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Speaker 2: they've got to take that away without you kind of

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Speaker 2: telling them. So the first thing that Jim Chalmers said,

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Speaker 2: his very first line in the budget was this budget

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Speaker 2: builds on the progress we've made together. He's not talking

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Speaker 2: about the government, he's talking about everyone in Australia. And

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Speaker 2: he comes back to this theme again and again and again.

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Speaker 2: He says, the things that you have done, all of

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Speaker 2: us as Australians, this is the progress that we've made

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Speaker 2: and this is the budget I'm handing down. Now, why

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Speaker 2: is he doing this, Well, he could just come up

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Speaker 2: and say listen, we've listened to what you said. We

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Speaker 2: know you're suffering and this is what my government, our government,

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Speaker 2: the alban Ezy Labor government, is delivering for you. You're welcome.

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Speaker 2: But he doesn't do that. He makes it sound as

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Speaker 2: though this is something that all of us, every single

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Speaker 2: Australian is actually in on. Now, why is this a

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Speaker 2: smart thing to do it? Well, by sharing the credit

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Speaker 2: with everybody, even though of course normal Australians aren't sitting

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Speaker 2: down and saying, oh, I think I'll give myself a

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Speaker 2: tax cut, thanks very much. But by sharing the credit

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Speaker 2: with everyone and saying that you've done all this, he's

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Speaker 2: basically rendering the budget critic proof. And look, don't get

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Speaker 2: me wrong, there are people lining up with brick bats

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Speaker 2: to belt it as soon as it was handed down.

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Speaker 2: There always are. But by saying said in the agenda,

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Speaker 2: saying this is what you have done, this is everything

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Speaker 2: that you have done is coming out in this budget.

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Speaker 2: This budget, is there some product of all your hard

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Speaker 2: work and sacrifice. Well, in the back of their mind,

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Speaker 2: the average as you can't say well, that's a shit budget,

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Speaker 2: because then you're actually devaluing everything you've done. So it's

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Speaker 2: making you have a kind of ownership of the budget.

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Speaker 2: And that means if you're belting the budget, you're kind

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Speaker 2: of belting yourself saying oh I didn't work hard enough.

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Speaker 2: I haven't delivered enough. No one wants to think that.

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Speaker 2: You want to think, yeah, I have sacrificed and now

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Speaker 2: things are getting better. Thanks, Yeah I did do this,

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Speaker 2: this is great. I am responsible for that tax cut.

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Speaker 2: So that sets the tone for the entire speech. And then,

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Speaker 2: of course is very second line. The second sentence is

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Speaker 2: it's a plan to help with the cost of living.

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Speaker 3: Well, duh, of course it is like, what else is

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Speaker 3: it there for? What else is any budget there for?

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Speaker 3: But to help with the cost of living one way

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Speaker 3: or another. And of course everyone knows there's a cost

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Speaker 3: of living crisis. This is the number one issue daylight second.

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Speaker 2: In the election campaign, which is about to be called

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Speaker 2: in a day or two, possibly even by the time

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Speaker 2: you're listening to this. But he has to say that

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Speaker 2: because he has to show that he is one hundred

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Speaker 2: percent focused on this, even if it is completely obvious.

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Speaker 2: And of course he has, you know, a campaign team

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Speaker 2: already assembled, the Alpig election campaign team already assembled, saying

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Speaker 2: you've got to talk about the cost of living all

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Speaker 2: the time, all the time, all the time, all the time,

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Speaker 2: Never talk about anything else, to talk about anything but

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Speaker 2: the cost of living. Sounds like you don't care about

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Speaker 2: the cost of living, and that means that everyone who

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Speaker 2: does care about the cost of living, which is everybody,

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Speaker 2: is going to think that you're out of touch. Remember

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Speaker 2: the Voice referendum. No good, Okay, let's just pretend that

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Speaker 2: never happened. And so it goes on and on and on.

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Speaker 2: He talks about volatility overseas, and a lot of that

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Speaker 2: is about Donald Trump, obviously, but he doesn't mention Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is the love or the volutlatility that dare

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Speaker 2: not speak its name. Talks about the voltillary overseas. He says,

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Speaker 2: all these things, you know, all the bad stuff that's happening,

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Speaker 2: that's beyond our control. That is stuff that other people

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Speaker 2: are doing. We're not going to say who they are,

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Speaker 2: but you know who they are. Nudge nudge, wink wink.

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Speaker 2: And China they're still bad and put butter. It's invading

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and that's destroying everything for everybody. Nothing we can

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Speaker 2: do about terrible, all that bad stuff, that cost of

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Speaker 2: living crisis, that inflation, the global uncertainty, none of that's

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Speaker 2: how far that's all beyonn it. I can't do anything

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Speaker 2: about it. But all the good stuff that happens, any

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Speaker 2: good luck that comes along, like people basically not spending

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Speaker 2: any money because they can't afford to. That's the result

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Speaker 2: of our good economic stewardship. So everything good that happens

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Speaker 2: is the responsibility of the government. Everything bad that happens

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Speaker 2: is beyond the government's control and not its fault. And

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Speaker 2: for that you need to just imagine the scene in

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Speaker 2: Goodwill Hunting where Robin Williams grabs Matt Damon says, it's

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Speaker 2: not your fault, it's not your fault, it's not your fault.

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Speaker 2: That is what Jim Chalmers wants the nation to do

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Speaker 2: to him. It's not your fault, Jim, it's that whole

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Speaker 2: costs of living crist and again, and then he closes

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Speaker 2: the entire speech. And this is a very interesting one.

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Speaker 2: It's the plan at the core of this budget is

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Speaker 2: about more than putting the worst behind us. It's about

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Speaker 2: seizing the best of what's ahead of us. And that

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Speaker 2: is soul stirring stuff that warms the cockles of your heart,

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Speaker 2: doesn't it. But of course what he's saying is, don't

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Speaker 2: think about everything you've been through, don't think about all

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Speaker 2: that shit that you had to wade through to get here,

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Speaker 2: and don't even think about here. Don't even think about

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Speaker 2: where you are, don't think about just think about where

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Speaker 2: you could be. Just think about how good things could

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Speaker 2: be in the future. Close your eyes, go to your

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Speaker 2: happy place. Just imagine that picture that you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: it's you on a lilah in a pool somewhere while

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Speaker 2: it rains twenty dollar bills. Just think about that and

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Speaker 2: then say, thank you very much, We'll re elect the

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Speaker 2: Albanezi Labor government for a second time. Now. Another important

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Speaker 2: line in the budget and Jim Chalmer's budget speech is

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Speaker 2: this we have invested an extra fifty point three billion

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Speaker 2: dollars in defense by the mid twenty thirties to help

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Speaker 2: keep Australian safe. And that is all very true. But

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Speaker 2: what he doesn't say is what he's keeping Australian safe

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Speaker 2: from is Donald Trump. Because it's Donald Trump who is

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Speaker 2: insisting that all America's allies, including and especially Australia, have

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Speaker 2: to increase their defense spending to a higher proportion of

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Speaker 2: GDP or the US isn't going to play nice with

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Speaker 2: them anymore. So he's basically saying, if you don't increase

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Speaker 2: your defense spending, majorly, and we are still nowhere near

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Speaker 2: where Trump wants it to be. But still, if you

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Speaker 2: don't make real efforts to increase your defense spending that

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Speaker 2: we do and just not rely on America to always

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Speaker 2: come and save your proverbial whenever you're in trouble, then

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Speaker 2: we're going to stop saving your proverbial whenever you're in trouble.

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Speaker 2: You're on your own. And he's made this threat with

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Speaker 2: NATO and NATO countries and he said the same thing

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Speaker 2: about Australia as well, and so we have to increase

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Speaker 2: our defense spending, or at least look like we're increasing

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Speaker 2: our defense spending, because a lot of people saying, hang on,

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Speaker 2: I mean that fifty billion dollars that's not quite new stuff.

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Speaker 2: Really is just bringing forward an extra kind of billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: But whatever, as long as it looks as long as

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump thinks we're doing it, that's okay. And maybe

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Speaker 2: he'll look more favorably on us when it comes to tariffs,

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Speaker 2: because it's not just the steel and aluminium tariffs that

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Speaker 2: is slapping on us, but there's talk about slapping more

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Speaker 2: tariffs down the track, including trying to make our medicines

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Speaker 2: more expensive which quite frankly was when I went, you

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Speaker 2: know what, Donald, You're in ahole mate. That's just not

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Speaker 2: nice anyway. So we have to look like we're playing

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Speaker 2: nice on defence, and of course the most important thing

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Speaker 2: of all is orcus, and to make sure that the

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Speaker 2: orc is packed, goes ahead, and that America holds its

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Speaker 2: own end of the bargain and not only deliver as

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Speaker 2: the submarines, but again saves our backside if God forbid,

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Speaker 2: there is any kind of regional conflict that may or

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Speaker 2: may not involve a certain superpower to our north with

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Speaker 2: one point four billion people and the world's largest military

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Speaker 2: in it. So that is why we are doing that.

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Speaker 2: The other way that Trump is playing into this budget

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Speaker 2: and the election campaign that's about to follow it is

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Speaker 2: that he's making trump Ism in Australia suddenly pretty unpopular.

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Speaker 2: The right is now splitting over whether or not Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump is in fact the answer to all the world's ills.

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Speaker 2: There are plenty of people who were cheering him on

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Speaker 2: like there was no tomorrow in November, and then suddenly

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Speaker 2: when he turns around says, ah Na, you don't get

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Speaker 2: any exemptions. Sure Australia came to our aid in Vietnam.

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Speaker 2: You came to our aid in Iraq when even you know,

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Speaker 2: Britain wouldn't in Vietnam, when even France wouldn't. Australia was

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Speaker 2: there fighting and dying side by side. But now we're

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Speaker 2: still going to slap tariffs on you as though you're

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Speaker 2: in any other country. Hang on, doesn't seem I thought

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Speaker 2: we were friends, but no. And of course Trump's attitude

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Speaker 2: towards Vladimir Putin and cozing up to him and seeming

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Speaker 2: to take Russia's side in its invasion and illegal war

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Speaker 2: with Ukraine, It's got a lot of people saying, hang

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Speaker 2: on a minute. Andrew Bolt, you know, one of the

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Speaker 2: grand old men of conservatism in Australia, is saying Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump has completely lost the plot. And of course, who

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Speaker 2: was one of Peter Dutton's biggest supporters, Andrew Bolt and others,

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Speaker 2: And who has Peter Dutton modeled himself on up until

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Speaker 2: this point. Well you can sort of split hairs. But

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Speaker 2: a lot of people, especially his critics and as the

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Speaker 2: Labour Party would like to paint him, say that he's

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Speaker 2: modeling himself on Donald Trump, which seemed like a great idea.

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Speaker 2: When Trump gets elected in a landslide in November. But

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Speaker 2: when Trump is very quickly becoming Australia's kind of public

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Speaker 2: enemy number one, slapping tariffs on it, taking the side

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Speaker 2: of Pewtin over Ukraine, trying to make life saving medicines

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Speaker 2: more expensive, maybe squibbing on UCST despite the fact that

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Speaker 2: we've already handed over eight hundred million dollars to him

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Speaker 2: and haven't received a single sub yet. Suddenly being Australia's

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Speaker 2: Trump two point zero isn't such a good look. But

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Speaker 2: the problem is that Peter Dunt also has people on

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Speaker 2: his side saying, no, you need to be more like Trump,

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Speaker 2: you need to stop being so safe. And we'll talk

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Speaker 2: to a liberal guru very shortly who is warning about

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Speaker 2: Peter Dutton resorting to me too politics. But also where

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Speaker 2: does he go if he doesn't just match things like

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Speaker 2: Medicare which laborers rolled out, and again in the context

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Speaker 2: of Trump making medicines more expensive while the budget just

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Speaker 2: made medicines more cheap. How does Peter Dutton stake out

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Speaker 2: a a brand for himself, an image of himself? You know?

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Speaker 2: How does he stand for something? Because his previous big

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Speaker 2: stance was literally to stand in front of Australian flags

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Speaker 2: at all his press conferences. He says, I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to have any other flag except for the Australian flag

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Speaker 2: at all my public appearances, all my press conferences. And

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Speaker 2: that's great, fine, no worries. But he's also pretty trumpy.

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Speaker 2: How does he stake out who he is and what

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Speaker 2: he stands for without looking like he's a pale imitation

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Speaker 2: of a bloke who's suddenly gone from being you know,

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Speaker 2: the best, the best friend and the second coming of

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Speaker 2: the new Right to being a bit of a pride.

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Speaker 2: How does he do that? And if he doesn't do

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Speaker 2: that and says no, no, no, no, no, I'm just a

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Speaker 2: sensible centrist, you know, normal, you know, everyday Australian with

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Speaker 2: mainstream Australian values, and no, I'm not cruel and not

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Speaker 2: mean and tricky and that's why we're going to support

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Speaker 2: Medicare and that's why we're going to support the powerbule rebats.

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Speaker 2: Then how does he not just end up being a

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Speaker 2: pay limitation of the Albanezy government. So Peter Dutton is

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Speaker 2: kind of caught in the middle of being a bit

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Speaker 2: like Trump or a bit like Albow. And if he

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Speaker 2: moves to either side of that, then he gets attacked

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Speaker 2: by either the left or the right, and so he's

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Speaker 2: being very sort of neatly wedged. And of course this

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Speaker 2: is exactly what the Labor Party wants. The Labor Party

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Speaker 2: wants Peter Dutton to be seen as Australia's Donald Trump,

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Speaker 2: because for all that his cheerleaders might want him to

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Speaker 2: be that that is a massive turnoff to most voters,

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Speaker 2: and it's especially a massive turnoff to female voters. Female

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Speaker 2: voters are deserting Peter Dutton in Drogs females over thirty

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Speaker 2: five in particular. They just hate anything trumpy and they

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Speaker 2: don't like Peter Dutton. They're not too keen on the

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Speaker 2: Labor Party in Albo either, not deserting him at the

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Speaker 2: same rate. And that's a big, big problem. And this

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Speaker 2: includes of course Liberal voters, soft liberal voters, moderate liberal

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Speaker 2: voters who support the Liberal Party as it is or

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Speaker 2: as it used to be in Australia, but are very

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Speaker 2: very scared of trump Ism coming in. And that's coming

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Speaker 2: up in focus groups and research that's being done by

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Speaker 2: the Labor Party, that's also being done by independent groups,

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Speaker 2: all of which I've been privy to. So This is

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Speaker 2: something that Peter Dutton cannot afford to embrace if he's

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Speaker 2: to have any hope of winning over mainstream Australia and

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Speaker 2: any hope of winning back Teal seats that the Liberal

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Speaker 2: Party lost the last time round. But of course if

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Speaker 2: he leaves all that to one side, he's still getting

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Speaker 2: attacked by his base, the sort of people who like

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Speaker 2: Peter Dutton and hate Malcolm Turnbull. He is getting accused

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Speaker 2: by them standing for nothing, of just doing me too

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Speaker 2: politics and not actually having anything to stand for at all.

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Speaker 2: So that looks like what's happening. But we'll find out

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Speaker 2: in a few weeks when Albot calls the election, which

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Speaker 2: he may have even done by now. And just before

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Speaker 2: we get to our special guest, I promise to you

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Speaker 2: a little tidbit in the budget. If you go through

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Speaker 2: all the budget papers, especially the Budget Paper number two,

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Speaker 2: which is where all the fun stuff is, there's always

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Speaker 2: these little, tiny, little line items that never get mentioned.

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Speaker 2: They're never in any of the media releases of the

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Speaker 2: fact sheets or the speeches, but you just think wow,

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Speaker 2: and it just gives you an insight. This is why

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Speaker 2: I find Budget's just amazingly interesting because it just gives

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Speaker 2: you an insight into the scope and complexity of government.

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Speaker 2: There is just so much stuff going on, and there

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Speaker 2: is just so many tiny little details that you wouldn't

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Speaker 2: even think of, and then you see one like this

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Speaker 2: and you go, WHOA, that sounds pretty interesting. So here

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Speaker 2: is a line item in the budget. It's buried on

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Speaker 2: page seventy six out of ninety three pages in Budget

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Speaker 2: Paper number two, and it reads as follows and I

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Speaker 2: quote funding to upgrade the Australian Center for Disease Preparedness

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Speaker 2: to continue its biosecurity functions consistent with safety standards. The

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Speaker 2: financial implications of this measure are not for publication due

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Speaker 2: to commercial sensitivities. So that's basically wuhan there. That is

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Speaker 2: our Australian Center for Disease Preparedness continue its biosecurity functions

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Speaker 2: consistent with safety stands. You know what. I'm glad they're

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Speaker 2: consistent with safety standards, and I'm glad they're getting the

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Speaker 2: funding even if it's not for publication. So the big

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Speaker 2: theme of this election campaign, even though it hasn't officially

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Speaker 2: started yet, has been the government announcing big cash splashes,

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Speaker 2: throwing lots of money at problem, and then the opposition

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Speaker 2: instead of opposing them, which is kind of what the

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Speaker 2: opposition I thought was meant to do, just going yep,

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Speaker 2: we'll do that to yeps, thank you very much. And

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Speaker 2: this has attracted a fair bit of criticism from people

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Speaker 2: on the conservative side of politics and saying, look, what's

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Speaker 2: going on is bad enough. You've got a labor government

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Speaker 2: spending money like a drunken sailor, but you've got a

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Speaker 2: conservative opposition just doing the same thing and just saying yep,

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Speaker 2: we'll match it. Two. Well, someone who has been very

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Speaker 2: critical of this and wrote an excellent column about it

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Speaker 2: is my beloved friend and friend of the show, Parnell

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Speaker 2: p McGuinness, who is the founder and director of Agenda

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Speaker 2: CE which runs all these campaigns for the Liberal Party

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Speaker 2: and other organizations and companies. And you've probably been influenced

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Speaker 2: by it. You're probably doing exactly what she wants you

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Speaker 2: to do right now and you don't even know it.

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Speaker 2: And she joins me on the real story, how are

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Speaker 2: you Vonel?

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Speaker 1: Really good?

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Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. It's always an absolute pleasure. So

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Speaker 2: you wrote a great column on the weekend about basically

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Speaker 2: this kind of I suppose new I don't know what

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Speaker 2: is it we've got, but but basically become a custom.

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Speaker 2: We've become conditioned to expecting at every single budget and

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Speaker 2: every single election, just a whole bunch of good is

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Speaker 2: to be thrown at us. And that is, of course

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Speaker 2: what Anthony Alberanezi is doing, and that's kind of what

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Speaker 2: the left side of politics is meant to do. But

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Speaker 2: now the right is getting on too because they're so

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Speaker 2: scared of being Yeah.

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Speaker 1: But it's it's become rats and my stuff, you know.

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Speaker 1: So what I called it was pocket money because I

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Speaker 1: feel like we're just being given pocket money by the government. Now.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's tiny little bits and paces. It will

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Speaker 1: never cover your housing, it will never cover your rental,

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Speaker 1: your electricity, but it's just a little bit here or there.

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Speaker 1: And the problem is that what's happened now is the

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Speaker 1: reason both parties do it is because it's used as

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Speaker 1: a political wedge. So if one party does it and

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Speaker 1: the other party doesn't, it's so popular with voters, like

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Speaker 1: over eighty percent of voters think that this is a

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Speaker 1: good thing. It's so popular that the other party has

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Speaker 1: to do something. So essentially you can say, you know,

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Speaker 1: Albanesi gives you you couple of hundred bucks towards your electricity,

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Speaker 1: and if the Coalition doesn't, then he can say, oh,

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Speaker 1: they want to they want you to go without heat

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Speaker 1: this winter.

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Speaker 2: The reason you're paying more for power is because Peter

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Speaker 2: Dutton in the Coalition exactly who blocked it. The other

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Speaker 2: perfect example of that, obviously is the eight and a

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Speaker 2: half brillion dollars they're spending on Medicare to increase buck

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Speaker 2: billing rates. And of course they know that the Achilles Heel,

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Speaker 2: if you like, or the Boogeyman, at least for the Coalition,

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Speaker 2: is Medicare, because the medi Scare campaign in twenty sixteen

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Speaker 2: nearly knocked off the government after just one term. Malcolm

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Speaker 2: Turnbull even on election night thought he had lost in

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Speaker 2: his quite famous petulant speech. So they say, all right,

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Speaker 2: we're going to spend eight and a half billion dollars

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Speaker 2: on menicat, which is kind of, I thought, an answer

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Speaker 2: to a question no one had really asked.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 2: But of course as soon as they do that, everyone's

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Speaker 2: got to pay attention. Medica, Medicare, Medica. What's happing with

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Speaker 2: medicare and Peter Dutton in and the coal and you

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Speaker 2: can almost see them seeing what are we doing? They

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Speaker 2: going to do it again. And if we don't back

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Speaker 2: it every to the scent, they say, say, you're killing

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Speaker 2: medicare exactly.

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Speaker 1: And this is the thing. This is parties playing to

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Speaker 1: what was once labeled, i think by Crosby Texter, you know,

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Speaker 1: masters of the dark arts and the and the not

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Speaker 1: so dark ards. But what they once called it equities.

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Speaker 1: That's how they refer to it. So so electoral equities

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Speaker 1: are the things that your particular party is strong in,

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Speaker 1: and of course the other parties equities are the things

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Speaker 1: that they're strong in. So for labor, the equities are

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Speaker 1: health and you know.

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Speaker 2: All of the cares called the battlegrounds. Just give it

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Speaker 2: a fancy, that's right.

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Speaker 1: Essentially, essentially, that's how campaigns agencies often work. You know,

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Speaker 1: we've got a really really clear idea about what's happening here,

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Speaker 1: and we're going to explain it to you in a

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Speaker 1: way you're never going to forget. But it's quite a

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Speaker 1: useful concept, right because it's because you sort of start

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Speaker 1: to say it then when you when you look at

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Speaker 1: what they're doing, you start to say, oh right, So

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Speaker 1: labor always wants to talk about health ahead of elections

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Speaker 1: and prefers not to be talking about the economy if

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Speaker 1: it possibly can, whereas the Liberals do the reverse because

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Speaker 1: one of their equities is economic management. Now, Jim Charmers

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Speaker 1: has been doing a heroic effort of trying to turn

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Speaker 1: things around for Labor, trying to make the economy one

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Speaker 1: of Labour's equities, which is why he always uses his

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Speaker 1: messaging about stronger economic managers and all of these words,

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Speaker 1: you know, heroic, and yet people still haven't bought it.

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Speaker 1: So it still shows up in the polls that people

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Speaker 1: think the Coalition are stronger economic managers, but they also

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Speaker 1: think that the Labor Party is a strong is going

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Speaker 1: to be better on health and social welfarees like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, And this brings us to I suppose the

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Speaker 2: rub doesn't it. So Labour wants to talk about Medicare

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Speaker 2: eight and a half billion dollars, Peter Dunn says, the

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Speaker 2: last thing we want is an election referendum on Medicare,

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Speaker 2: so we have to neutral lies that the only way

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Speaker 2: we can neutralize it is just to match the eight

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Speaker 2: hundred and eight and a half billion dollars, So we

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Speaker 2: never talk of it. Again, we want to talk about

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Speaker 2: being responsible economic managers, being strong budget managers, fiscal.

430
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 1: Physical responsibilities responsible.

431
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 2: And of course you can't talk about that when you've

432
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 2: just thrown eight and a half billion dollars right, just

433
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 2: to neutralize.

434
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 1: But but what both part is banking on is that people

435
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: aren't paying attention to the actual detail of it, right,

436
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: So they they're just hoping that all you see is

437
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: what you would be seeing. And you know, the charmers

438
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: is hoping that what we'll be seeing today after his

439
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: first after his fourth budget is the five dollar tax cuts,

440
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 1: which is better than lots and lots of debt, more

441
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: debt than we were in, you know, than we've ever

442
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 1: been in before, which is going to be paid back

443
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 1: by our children forever and ever. And likewise, so Peter

444
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: Dutton when he matches eight billion dollars on health hopes,

445
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 1: oh well, that's just going to cancel itself out. And

446
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: I can then talk about being a stronger economic manager

447
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: getting down the Yet we're going to fire a few

448
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: public servants who aren't really doing much and that will

449
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: bring us back on to economic territory.

450
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: And I think another one of the things, and again

451
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 2: I've been having so many of these conversations since the budget.

452
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 2: But people could one trillion dollars in debt, one trillion

453
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 2: dollars in debt. People just can't get their head around that.

454
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: You can't imagine a trillion dollars, right, you just and

455
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 2: but you can imagine a five dollar cup of coffee

456
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 2: in your hand and think, oh, well, that's something. You know.

457
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: There's an old joke which is better complete happiness or

458
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: a cheese sandwich? And the answer is, of course a

459
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 2: cheese sandwich, because nothing is better than complete happiness, and

460
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 2: a chief sandwich is better than nothing. But all right,

461
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 2: and if everyone's saying, oh, your tax cut, your tax

462
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 2: it's just a five dollars tax cut, tax cut, take

463
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 2: or you're hearing is tax cut exactly?

464
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 1: Exactly, that's right, and a tax cut is better than

465
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 1: no tax cut. So therefore it's now he sort of

466
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: charmers has thrown the ball into the coalition's court and said, Okay,

467
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 1: we're going to do this tax cut, which is actually

468
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: in your equity side, like you're the guys who do

469
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: tax cuts, and now.

470
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 2: I love that.

471
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 1: By the way, has to work out how he responds

472
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: to this, and of course This is really tricky because

473
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: we are in trillion, you know, a trillion dollars of debt.

474
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: So how do you come back from that without increasing

475
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: the debt or without sort of highlighting Oh, well, the

476
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 1: coalition is taking us into further debt or you know,

477
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: multi generational debt or whatever. This is going to be

478
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 1: the intriguing thing.

479
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: Well, this is why I brought you here, because you

480
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 2: are you are the master or the mistress of this

481
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: sort of campaigning and messaging and getting people to think

482
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 2: what you want them to think about your brand or

483
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: your party. What does pedd Because of course he's matched

484
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: them on medicarecs. He doesn't want that to be a battleground.

485
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 2: He's matched them on power prices because he doesn't want

486
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 2: to be tired with making power prices one hundred and

487
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: fifty bucks high and they otherwise would be. He's then

488
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 2: drawn the line at the tax cuts announced by the government.

489
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 2: Now he's drawn the line in a kind of funny

490
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 2: way by saying, oh, they're just to Joe chorus, justin

491
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: ta or and they're highlighting the trillion dollars in debt.

492
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 2: But what do they do? He's got to deliver his

493
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 2: budget reply speech on Thursday night. So depending on how

494
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,719
Speaker 2: early you listen to this podcast, it may or may

495
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: not have already come down. But does he then have

496
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: to announced doom bigger tax cuts and then how does

497
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 2: he square that with winging about the deficits blowing out

498
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 2: beyond the horizon, the debt piling up to a trillion dollars?

499
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: Again, he's kind of it, that's right, And you know,

500
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: and I have no special insight into what the coalition

501
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: are planning to do on this.

502
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: In fact, I don't think anyone that's right.

503
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: That's however, one of the ways that they could go

504
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: about doing this is so one of the things I

505
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: wrote about in my column about this was tax churn,

506
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: and what happens in that is, basically, the government takes

507
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 1: lots of income tax office more and more as bracket

508
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: crepe pushes us into into paying more and more tax

509
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 1: over the years, and then they process that through the

510
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: public service because obviously processing money takes time, effort, people, infrastructure,

511
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: all of that, and they give us back a little

512
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: bit of it. But in the meantime, a lot of

513
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 1: that money has sort of leaked off into into the

514
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 1: infrastructure costs, office cost desks, you know whatever, people all

515
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: of these things, and so tax churn actually reduces the

516
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 1: amount of money available in the economy. Now, one of

517
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: the things that Dutton could do is to talk about

518
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 1: reducing tax churn, and the way that he would have

519
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 1: to do that is he would have to explain, we

520
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 1: are going to take less from you and put less

521
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 1: through this machinery of government. So you are going to

522
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 1: get a tax cut because it's going straight into your pocket. Now,

523
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: there are a bunch of ways that this could be done,

524
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: which I've proposed, but which are probably too bold. You know,

525
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 1: things like on chard w Old care. You know, instead

526
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: of paying people lots and lots of money to put

527
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 1: their kids into childcare centers, which then jack up the

528
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: prices all of the time and tend to sort of

529
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: shovel money off into the pockets of various other people,

530
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: unions and private equity and all over the place, you

531
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 1: could say, look, instead of that, we're going to make

532
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: childcare a tax deduction. So it's in your pockets to

533
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: begin with, never leaves your pocket, doesn't have any of

534
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 1: that leakage along the way, and you are able to

535
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: do with it what you will. This is probably not

536
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 1: going to happen. I mean, that's a big idea.

537
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: No, it's one that won't go away though, and it's

538
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: the one that, obviously, you know, being the dirty little

539
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 2: comming that I am, it's one that I sort of

540
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 2: pushed back on because I say, well, that's all well

541
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: and good, but that overwhelmingly benefits people who pay the

542
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: most tax, and that overwhelming benefits people at the wealthier

543
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 2: end of the scale. Which again, so.

544
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: There is actually there is actually a really elegant solution

545
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: to that, which because so Richard Holden and Rosalind Dixon

546
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: I quote this paper all the time, because they came

547
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 1: up with an extreme their economists, they've come up with

548
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: a very elegant solution to it, which is they said, basically,

549
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: of course, we understand that some people aren't working and

550
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: don't have the income or don't have enough income to

551
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: offset that against and we do need them to be

552
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: able to use child care in order to find a

553
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: job or go study, or sometimes simply because it's an

554
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: unstable family environment and it would be better for the

555
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 1: kid to be in childcare. So they've said, all right,

556
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 1: so we will make tax deductible childcare available, but also

557
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: taxpayer funded childcare available in those areas where that where

558
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 1: it's needed most, so they can basically it's basically, well, no,

559
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 1: it's basically if you're if you're not paying any tax

560
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: or you can access the free and you could also

561
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: access that if you wanted to use it as part

562
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: of your tax deductible arrangement.

563
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 2: It sounds like though suddenly it sounds like it's gonning.

564
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,719
Speaker 1: Well, it's it's multi speed because you know, look, we

565
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: don't churn is a bad thing. Redistribution is not a

566
00:29:58,960 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: bad thing.

567
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: Right we're both communists, but.

568
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: You know, like social like a welfare safety neck is

569
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: not a bad thing. Where it's a bad thing is

570
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 1: where it's the middle classes being in order to be

571
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 1: handed back to the middle class.

572
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 2: Restraction of that money. Now, obviously we've just disappeared down that,

573
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: which it always happens with jogging. But so so, Peter Dunton,

574
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: you think could basically and to put it to put

575
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 2: it in its most basics of blunt terms. So I'm

576
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 2: going to deliver tax cuts, and I'm going to do

577
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 2: it by cutting waste, by cutting inefficiency. That's right.

578
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: He could say, we're taking we're taking this churn out,

579
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: We're going to simplify some things in whichever way it is.

580
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 1: You know, child care is just the example I've given,

581
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: but you might be able to simplify other areas and say, look,

582
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: instead of taking this out of your pocket in the

583
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: first place, we are going to leave it where it is,

584
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: So that might be by adjusting bracket crepet.

585
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 2: Isn't the problem as well, And I'm all for cutting waste.

586
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: And again, neither of us are actually communists, believe not.

587
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 2: Communism is a horrendous, murderous ideology. It's been responsible for

588
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: tens of millions of deaths across the world. But but

589
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: isn't the problem that little disclaimer there for anyone who

590
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 2: missed the entire twentieth century. But it isn't, which is

591
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 2: a lot of the totally watch every single university student

592
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: currently on canus. But but isn't the problem that, yes,

593
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 2: you can cut all the waste, And yes you can,

594
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 2: I mean, for example, and you'll say that labor is

595
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: not trying it up. But I think they found two

596
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 2: billion dollars worth of waste in this in this budget.

597
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: You know, there's talk about, you know, the extra tens

598
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: of thousands of bureaucrats in Canberra. But even all, even

599
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: if you took all that money, that still wouldn't get

600
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 2: to your seventeen billion for these tax cuts, which is

601
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: just one percent cut per year over two years, so

602
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: two percent and total of just one income band with

603
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: the lowest income band with So even if you cut

604
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: all that waste, you still don't quite get there, do you.

605
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: Well, unless unless you say, look, we're just going to

606
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: stop bracket creeping like ideally forever, as other countries have done.

607
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: But you know, you know, in the past governments have

608
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: said we would like well no, basically, just we're going

609
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: to stop indexing the tax rate to inflation, so your

610
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: money then you're so what's happening at the moment is

611
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: that you're making the same amount of money, but it's

612
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 1: worth less over time, but you're paying more of it.

613
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: So if you stop that bracket crepe, then you're leaving

614
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: more in people's pockets to solve their own problems. You're

615
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: getting rid of some more.

616
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 2: Because you have technically more dollars, but those dollars are

617
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 2: actually buying the same amount the less because yeah, so

618
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 2: I think we've sold everything, haven't we all we have

619
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 2: to do.

620
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: That's well, I mean you know, that's all that he

621
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 1: has to do is really is the worst thing that

622
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: you can ever say in politics because of coause that

623
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: would be great. But then he has to explain it.

624
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 2: And how does he do that? Because I feel like

625
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 2: we did it as well as any human being could positively.

626
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And this is the thing, because what

627
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: we're looking at now is not just what's on the

628
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: front page of the newspaper the next day, but what

629
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: are people picking up in you know, in influencer land

630
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: and so on. How is this going to see?

631
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 2: Explain bracket creep on TikTok right.

632
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: Right, And that is the clever wedge about this.

633
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: Look.

634
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, all credit to charmers. This is

635
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: a very very clever budget. Politically, financially, we're still just

636
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: as stuffed as we always were, but politically he has

637
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: executed a master.

638
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: Stroke politics any day us. Politically you are a master vine.

639
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for joining us on the real story. Pleasure,

640
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: and that is all we have time for this week.

641
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,160
Speaker 2: I hope you enjoyed my deep dive into the budget.

642
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: I hope I made it real nice and sexy for you.

643
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 2: I hope we're all still alive after the Wuhan Lab

644
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: League that could be coming to Australia. If we are this,

645
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: we're going to be an election on So won't that

646
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Speaker 2: be exciting? I mean it's only already been going for

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Speaker 2: about three months already, but you'll finally be official. God

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Speaker 2: love you, godspeed, God bless you. The United States of

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00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: America