WEBVTT - Will Australia go to war over Taiwan?

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven Am.

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<v Speaker 1>Australia is called in a perilous balancing act. This week,

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Alberezi met with Jijing Ping to stabilize ties with China,

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<v Speaker 1>as leagues from Washington revealed the steep demands of our

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<v Speaker 1>Defense Pact within the United States in the shadow of

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<v Speaker 1>rising tensions over Taiwan. The question of where Australia stands

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<v Speaker 1>and who we stand with has never been more complicated. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>host of the ABC podcast Global Roaming, Hey miss McDonald,

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<v Speaker 1>on how the Alberzi government is navigating our fraud alliances

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<v Speaker 1>and whether we could be headed for war. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>July eighteenth. Hey a, missh thanks for speaking with me.

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<v Speaker 1>It was interesting timing for the Prime Minister's meeting with

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<v Speaker 1>Jiji Ping this week. It came just as we were

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<v Speaker 1>expecting to hear how the Trump administration's review into the

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<v Speaker 1>Orcat Agreement went. And while that wasn't released, there were

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<v Speaker 1>leaks out of the Pentagon. So what do we know

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<v Speaker 1>about what the review is likely to say at this stage?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So this is curious and I guess we have

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<v Speaker 2>to take this with all the usual caveats, one being

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<v Speaker 2>that they're leaks. We haven't seen what the report, the

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<v Speaker 2>review suggested to the White House. And the other really

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<v Speaker 2>big caveat is who knows what Donald Trump will do

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<v Speaker 2>or will make of it. Ilbridge Colby is the guy

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<v Speaker 2>that has conducted this review. He's someone that has expressed some,

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<v Speaker 2>if not quite skepticism about orcas skepticism about the delivery

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<v Speaker 2>of it.

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<v Speaker 3>This is actually the single most important conventional military asset

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<v Speaker 3>we have for a Taiwan fight or for a contest

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<v Speaker 3>against the Chinese center on the first silent chain, which

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<v Speaker 3>is conventional nuclear powered attack submarines, and we are talking

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<v Speaker 3>about selling them. So my concern is why are we

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<v Speaker 3>giving away this crowndewl asset when we most need it now?

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<v Speaker 2>That is, if we believe the leaks. What Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>might be asked to do is tell Australia to pay

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<v Speaker 2>more for the submarines, the nuclear powered submarines, and to

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<v Speaker 2>get a guarantee, an explicit guarantee from Australia that they

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<v Speaker 2>would be used if America were to go into conflict

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<v Speaker 2>with China, in particular over Taiwan on the side of

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<v Speaker 2>the Americans.

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<v Speaker 1>And while the Americans are reviewing Aucus. There's also been

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of criticism of the deal here in Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>So if we are to stick with it, how important

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<v Speaker 1>is it for the Australian government to lay out exactly

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<v Speaker 1>why they think ORCAS is the answer.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think, to be fair, a lot of Australian politicians,

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<v Speaker 2>both on the conservative side and the more progressive side,

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<v Speaker 2>have laid out the reasons for UCAS. It's just that

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<v Speaker 2>they tend not to be very explicit about what the

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<v Speaker 2>threat is. It's China, It's China's role in our region,

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<v Speaker 2>China's growth as a military power, its growth as a

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<v Speaker 2>naval power. The concern is that, look, if China, for example,

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<v Speaker 2>will tried to take Taiwan by force, that it might

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<v Speaker 2>also disrupt trade in the South China Sea and that

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<v Speaker 2>would have a profound impact on Australia immediately. Because we

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<v Speaker 2>rely on trade both export and import. We have very

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<v Speaker 2>limited long term fuel supplies. It would be very easy

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<v Speaker 2>if you disrupted the trade routes to really make life

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<v Speaker 2>very difficult for Australia in a pretty short space of time.

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<v Speaker 2>The argument is that the nuclear powered submarines are the

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<v Speaker 2>APEX predators of the sea, they can go further, they

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<v Speaker 2>need less refueling. In fact, the nuclear fuel rods within

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<v Speaker 2>them last for the lifetime of the submarine. That means

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<v Speaker 2>that they need to come up to the surface less

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<v Speaker 2>often to take air in to allow their systems to reenergize.

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<v Speaker 2>It's less easy for China to know where our nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>powered submarines are at any given time, and so that

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<v Speaker 2>might make it more risky for them, for example, to

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<v Speaker 2>launch an invasion of Taiwan. That purely and simply is

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<v Speaker 2>the risk calculus.

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<v Speaker 1>So if, as the League suggests, the US requests US

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<v Speaker 1>to commit to using our submarines in the war over Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>what do we know about where the Australian government stands

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<v Speaker 1>on that.

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<v Speaker 2>But weirdly, our government kind of stands where the US

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<v Speaker 2>government stands, which is a place of relative strategic ambiguity.

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<v Speaker 2>It's one of those weird foreign policy terms. What it

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<v Speaker 2>means essentially is not committed either way. You will have

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<v Speaker 2>heard Anthony Albanezi this week say well, Australia on the

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<v Speaker 2>question of Taiwan, supports the status quo. We support the

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<v Speaker 2>status quo by definition, we don't support any unilateral action.

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<v Speaker 1>On Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>That is no attempt by the mainland Chinese government to

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<v Speaker 2>invade Taiwan. The United States position has always been in

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<v Speaker 2>thisrategic ambiguity idea that you don't really say whether there's

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<v Speaker 2>a security guarantee for Taiwan, but you give the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>the impression that there would be a very high cost

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<v Speaker 2>if they attempted to take it.

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<v Speaker 1>You said, the government is ambiguous on purpose when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to his position on Taiwan. But if China did

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<v Speaker 1>invade Taiwan, what's the likelihood of us actually getting involved? Amish?

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's a really good question, and I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's one our leaders haven't clearly answered. I was really

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<v Speaker 2>looking at the language from Anthony Albanezi this week during

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<v Speaker 2>his visit.

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<v Speaker 1>It kind of seemed to catch him off guard. The

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<v Speaker 1>questions around that didn't the look.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a vexed issue. It's a particularly vexed issue on

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<v Speaker 2>the left of Australian politics because you know, there is

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<v Speaker 2>a more dubvish approach amongst some of the senior labor

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<v Speaker 2>figures today, but also some of the labor luminaries like

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<v Speaker 2>keeping like Gareth Evans. You know, they do have these

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<v Speaker 2>more nuanced positions on Taiwan. They you know, see these

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<v Speaker 2>arguments from the Chinese about Taiwan being part of the Motherland.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of the liberals seem to be more clear sighted

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<v Speaker 2>about this. They say, this is exactly like Russia wanting Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a great power saying we're bigger and we

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<v Speaker 2>have historical ties here and if we want them, we'll

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<v Speaker 2>get them. I was in Taiwan recently and asked a

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<v Speaker 2>question to someone about the possibility of China retaking Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>and they picked me up actually on the language and said,

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<v Speaker 2>what do you mean, retake Taiwan? Communists, China can't retake

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwan because it never held it in the first place.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, there's a lot of people in Taiwan

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<v Speaker 2>that really value their democracy. And I guess it is

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<v Speaker 2>a question for us to what extent do we believe

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<v Speaker 2>that the people of Taiwan have the right to self determination.

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<v Speaker 1>After the break the preparations underweigh in Taiwan as the

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<v Speaker 1>threat of the Chinese invasion looms, and how the US

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<v Speaker 1>will respond ay this, You have just returned from a

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<v Speaker 1>trip to Taiwan. How real does the possibility of conflicts

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<v Speaker 1>seem to the people there a.

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<v Speaker 2>Lot more real and present to I think what we

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<v Speaker 2>see this threat as it's definitely a very frequent topic

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<v Speaker 2>of conversation. You see the posters on the streets, you

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<v Speaker 2>see people turning up to self defense classes, people preparing

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<v Speaker 2>themselves for what may or may not happen. But I

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<v Speaker 2>think beyond that, there's actually already a view in Taiwan

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<v Speaker 2>amongst some that China's making its advances today not necessarily

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<v Speaker 2>physically militarily, even though there's drills that go on and

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<v Speaker 2>rehearsals as some people describe them as, but that cognitive

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<v Speaker 2>warfare is already underway. There is this huge body of

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<v Speaker 2>di and misinformation that's spewing out into the Taiwanese public

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<v Speaker 2>discourse through social media, through mainstream media, even to some

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<v Speaker 2>extent which some viewers deliberate attempt by mainland China to

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<v Speaker 2>shape the discourse in Taiwanese politics and to I guess,

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<v Speaker 2>make people look more favorably upon the China model than

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<v Speaker 2>what they might otherwise.

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<v Speaker 1>So this attempted softening of the Taiwanese people from China

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of any potential conflict is taking place. Can you

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<v Speaker 1>tell me a little bit more about what that looks

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<v Speaker 1>like in practice.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there are some people that say, look, China doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>really want to physically go to war to take Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>They think there are other ways to do this. You

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<v Speaker 2>might be able to soften the population. We see examples

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<v Speaker 2>of disinformation being used to discredit more pro independence politicians.

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<v Speaker 2>You saw a lot of this during the recent elections

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<v Speaker 2>that were held there in Taiwan. They had one of

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<v Speaker 2>the world's first Ministers for disinformation in their government to

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<v Speaker 2>try and deal with some of this. It is happening

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<v Speaker 2>all the time. You know, I was told there. If

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<v Speaker 2>you buy a new TV and you just open it up,

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<v Speaker 2>generally these TVs might be made in China.

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<v Speaker 1>If you just.

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<v Speaker 2>Open it up, the generic version of YouTube will just

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<v Speaker 2>start spewing Chinese nationalist miss and disinformation at you.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, if trying to tries to take over Taiwan, what

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<v Speaker 1>do you know about how the US will respond.

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<v Speaker 2>So Joe Biden actually, during his term as president, was

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<v Speaker 2>the one that probably moved America a bit closer the woods,

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<v Speaker 2>saying that America would defend Taiwan if, in fact China

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<v Speaker 2>tried to invade. Donald Trump's been you know, reasonably cautious

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<v Speaker 2>as far as Donald Trump can be cautious in his

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<v Speaker 2>language around these things, so I think it's kind of unclear.

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<v Speaker 2>But what we do know is that there's a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of very China hawkish operatives with quite a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>power in the Trump administration, and when you look at

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<v Speaker 2>the broader arc of Trump's foreign policy, it does suggest

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<v Speaker 2>rather more affixation on China as a rising power. Part

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<v Speaker 2>of the argument, if there is an intellectual argument underpinning

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's foreign policy around Europe and particularly Ukraine, is that

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<v Speaker 2>they want the Europeans to deal with that corner of

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<v Speaker 2>the world a bit more because they see China as

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<v Speaker 2>the big, emerging, rising threat to US hegemony, and so

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<v Speaker 2>the likelihood might be that they would take a greater

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<v Speaker 2>interest in what happens in this part of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>They may also, i think it needs to be said,

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<v Speaker 2>make a calculation that they don't mind so much what

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<v Speaker 2>happens to Taiwan because they're taking all of these steps

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<v Speaker 2>around the manufacturing of microchips and semiconductors.

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<v Speaker 1>You might recall that the big.

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwanese semiconductor company has been forced to open an operation

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<v Speaker 2>in the United States to start producing them there. So

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<v Speaker 2>you know, there's a debate in Taiwan about whether this

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<v Speaker 2>was a smart move to try and appease Trump and

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<v Speaker 2>make him see that Taiwan's really valuable. Others say, well,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe it made Taiwan physically less important to Trump because

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<v Speaker 2>some of this stuff's being made there.

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<v Speaker 1>How much of our strategy is just trying to when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to this thinking beyond a Trump presidency, how

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<v Speaker 1>are we thinking of the US as a strategic ally

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<v Speaker 1>in the longer term post Trump?

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think maybe in the first Trump administration there

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<v Speaker 2>was quite a bit of thinking that he was kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a one hit wonder and things would return to

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<v Speaker 2>business as usual afterwards. I don't think so many Australian

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<v Speaker 2>politicians are assuming that any longer. You'd have to say that,

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<v Speaker 2>on the face of things, JD. Vance is quite a

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<v Speaker 2>likely contender for the next presidency. He may go even

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<v Speaker 2>further on some of this foreign policy stuff, and so

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think we can necessarily assume that post Trump

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<v Speaker 2>will get back to a kind of era of America

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<v Speaker 2>always playing a role on the world stage that might

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<v Speaker 2>benefit Australia. Just don't think we can run along with

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<v Speaker 2>that calculus any longer. Peter our Geezy, former head of DEFACT,

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<v Speaker 2>very respected figure in Australian foreign policy, write an article

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<v Speaker 2>in The finn Review this week saying our politicians don't

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<v Speaker 2>have the guts. This is very loose and rough paraphrasing.

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<v Speaker 2>But our politicians don't have the guts to cut and

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<v Speaker 2>run from Orcus. But maybe the Americans will do us

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<v Speaker 2>a favor and ditch the deal to force our hand

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<v Speaker 2>to think more broadly. Certainly, Orcus strategically ties us to

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<v Speaker 2>the Americans for a very long time. In many ways,

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<v Speaker 2>this is the central question for Australia's leaders today, the

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<v Speaker 2>degree to which we can carve our own foreign policy.

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<v Speaker 2>Can we, as a middle power manage these relationships in

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<v Speaker 2>such a way that we are not always at the

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<v Speaker 2>mercy of the wind, that we're somehow able to carve

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<v Speaker 2>a place for ourselves where we can continue to extract

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<v Speaker 2>advantage from both of those relationships. How do we exist

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<v Speaker 2>in that world of intense, deep strategic competition between the

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<v Speaker 2>United States and.

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<v Speaker 1>China, Amish, thank you so much for your time, My

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<v Speaker 1>absolute pleasure. Also in the news, Independent New South Wales

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<v Speaker 1>MP Mark Latham is the subject of fresh controversy following

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<v Speaker 1>allegations that he participated in a sex video filmed in

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<v Speaker 1>his office at Parliament House. Further allegations claim Latham also

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<v Speaker 1>took photos of female colleagues, made disparaging comments about them,

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<v Speaker 1>and claimed to have inappropriately pinched one in p In response,

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<v Speaker 1>New South Wales Housing Minister Rose Jackson was quoted calling

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<v Speaker 1>Latham a pig and went on to say in any

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<v Speaker 1>other workplace, you'd be shown the door immediately and rightfully so.

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<v Speaker 1>An unemployment is that with the rate rising to four

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<v Speaker 1>point three percent in the June figure, yes, that means

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<v Speaker 1>that there are approximately six hundred and fifty nine thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>six hundred Australians currently unemployed, the highest we've seen since

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<v Speaker 1>COVID lockdowns in twenty twenty one. Pressure is down mounting

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<v Speaker 1>on the Reserve Bank. The Caving crisrads had that next

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<v Speaker 1>meeting in August, following their recent decision to hold steady

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<v Speaker 1>at three point eight five percent. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said

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<v Speaker 1>the figures show Australia is not immune to economic uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to seven AM. This show is made

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:35.359
<v Speaker 1>by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Chris Dangate, Ruby Jones, Sarah mcvee,

0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Travis Evans, Zomfatjoe and Me, Daniel James. Our theme music

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<v Speaker 1>is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope BORTEO.

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.160
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<v Speaker 1>It's the best way you can support us. Have a

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:55.720
<v Speaker 1>great weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>No no,