WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 26 March 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:05.080 From the Sky News Center. This is Paul Murray Live. 0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:08.840 Thank you, Sherry. Can I come on into the man 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.559 cave Paul Lenty to get to tonight. Don't forget huge 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:14.680 shows ahead of what is going to be our election 0:00:14.760 --> 0:00:17.680 coverage here on Sky News, Ourtown to Woman on Sunday, 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:22.360 Peter Dutton taking your questions in the pub test on Monday. 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:24.200 Look forward to all of that. We've got so much 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:26.400 to get to between now and then, including all killer 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:31.639 no filler tonight, Robin Bishop, Stephen Conroy, all about the budget, 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:34.200 all about the politics, and all about the what's next, 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:36.839 plus the one, the only, the great, the awesome, the 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:40.520 reason that we are NHD or four K maybe somewhere 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:42.080 Meghan Kelly. 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:46.280 With the help of CBS, who's in sixty minutes, it's 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:50.080 all rewritten and get wrapped into. I was reased to 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:50.440 tell the. 0:00:50.400 --> 0:00:55.120 Truth now you know. I love busting the bs. In fact, 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:57.240 there was a firework named after that very thing, Paul 0:00:57.280 --> 0:01:00.959 Murray's BS Buster, that we fired off on Cracker Night, 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:03.880 July the first in Darwin a couple of years ago, 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.759 and all of the pollys in Canberra running around labor 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.000 people thinking oh that's it. We're won the election, we 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:15.120 could even increase our majority. The media, of course, all 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:18.680 day every day discussing about this decision and that decision, 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.560 of course myself included. But still the media that obsess 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:27.240 about this annual media pr event. Well, as I said, 0:01:27.240 --> 0:01:30.039 to bust the bs every now and then, you need 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.399 to be reminded that this is a country full of 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:36.520 compulsory voters, people who don't pay as much attention as us, 0:01:36.720 --> 0:01:39.000 and they will have just as much say as US 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:41.560 news dot com dot You met a few of them 0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:43.760 today and this is just going to burst all those 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.280 egos who think everything rides on the budget. 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:48.720 Do you care about the budget? 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.320 I'm not gonna lie, don't even know what that is. 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:52.960 Have you watched the budget last night? 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:53.560 No? 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:55.160 Do you care about the budget? 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:57.800 I don't even know what it is in all honesty, do. 0:01:57.720 --> 0:01:58.880 You know what's in the budget at all? 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:01.680 Do you care about the budget? 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:06.320 Probably not compulsory voting. They have as much say as 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:09.320 you and I, and they're just as Australian as you 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:12.160 and I. So that's the way the system works. But 0:02:12.560 --> 0:02:15.080 I just want to burst this bubble, this idea again 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.880 that the frenzy of joy in the Labor Party. Oh, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:21.480 we've turned the corner on our way. The media, does 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:25.000 this effect the election result? I want to remind the 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:31.640 collective political media complex that the real world doesn't really 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:35.359 pay the granular attention that yes, we do. Again, I'm sorry, 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:38.720 I'm part of this, but let's remind ourselves about the 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:41.480 rest of the world. There was a poll that came 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:44.000 out last year, after we had spent weeks and weeks 0:02:44.000 --> 0:02:47.160 and weeks talking about the changes to the Stage three 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:51.240 tax cuts. Fifty three percent of people said they knew 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.519 nothing at all or hardly anything. This is a reminder 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:58.200 about no matter how loud the conversation in parts of 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:00.560 the media, there are very significant number of people who 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:04.560 just either don't care or they're doing something else. And 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.800 this isn't something that's just Green's voters or people between 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:12.160 the ages of eighteen to twenty four. It was forty 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:19.239 seven percent of Labor supporters, forty nine percent of Coalition voters, 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:24.600 fifty percent of Green's voters, and well over that when 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.040 it comes to everyone, from the trumpet of the patriots 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:31.160 through the teals, the real independence, one nation and anything 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:35.120 else in between. And again, if this government thinks that 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.520 you know Tuesday night television, speech, breakfast radio and slamming 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:45.040 social media changes the world. Well months after their last 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.800 budget when remember the two little too late tax carts, 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:52.840 the power bill twenty five dollars a month thing, seventy 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:55.160 three percent of Australians said they could name a single 0:03:55.240 --> 0:04:00.240 government initiative that has made them financially better off. Again, 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.280 a little reminder that those who think that the past 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.400 twenty four hours has set a course for a definite 0:04:06.440 --> 0:04:09.160 win or a definite loss, and we all know what's 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:12.440 going to happen at the election year of god, no idea. 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.800 That's why on the Sunday Night Show, I really love 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:17.640 getting into that state of the race because we don't 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:20.240 just talk about the polls or the bookies. We talk 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:23.479 about the tactics and we also talk about what the 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:28.320 posters are telling people in those different focus groups. Now, 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:31.080 those may shift, they may harden, but they have not 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:33.080 made a decision about which way they are going to go. 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.680 So how inevitable people may think an election result is 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.960 going to be just a little reminder. Even on Budget Night, 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:45.160 even within an hour of the announcement being made, people 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:49.960 weren't that impressed by five bucks a week next year? 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:53.719 Would that make much of a difference to you? Five 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:57.080 dollars a week? And would it make you vote for Labor. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:04:58.960 In a word? 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:03.360 No, no, now it would And five dollars no. 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:03.520 No, not at all. 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:04.919 Five dollars is nothing. 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:07.120 It might be a cappuccino or something like that though 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:12.960 I could save on, but in general probably not. 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:15.600 No, not really, five dollars a week. No, where's the 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:16.600 money coming from? 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:18.320 Yeah? 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:21.280 Has he taken from us to give it back to us? 0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:25.320 Now? Again, random sample, not scientific, but it was in 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:27.800 one of in fact, the government's most margin one of 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.880 the government's most marginal electorates been along the former John 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:34.320 Howard's seat that is currently held by the Labor Party 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:37.600 in northwestern Sydney, right in the middle of the mortgage area, 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.040 right in a very cosmopolitan area and also a place 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.960 where the street names are named after the great battles 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:47.480 that Australia has been involved in from World War One 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:51.320 all the way through to Vietnam. So there is all 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:53.480 sorts of demographics inside that. And that's just a random 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:55.359 sample from people who are in the street walking around 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:58.640 last night when it comes to the budget. But maybe 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.719 that's just something that a sky News microphone will attract Well, 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.680 what about over in the Channel nine newspapers, Sidney Morning 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:07.240 How or Brisbane Times and the Age And they spoke 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:08.680 to a bunch of people. There were a couple of 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:11.480 people who were kind of excited. But Kathleen, who is 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:14.640 a small business owner it's Sydney's western suburbs, was not 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:17.600 impressed by the budget, saying the tax cuts were too 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:22.320 small and showed the government was out of touch. Mitch 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.039 and Caitlin, who I think are going to end up 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:25.880 voting labor, but still they said that. Mitch said the 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:27.880 tax cuts were welcome, but he said he wished the 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.160 governor included more cost of living measures because of course 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:33.960 five bucks doesn't touch sites. And don't forget, it's not 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:36.400 this year, it's next year. People are under the pump 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:38.520 right now and it takes a while for those things 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:40.560 to come through. I would have liked to see it 0:06:40.640 --> 0:06:44.080 go a little further. Anthony's a bricklayer on the Mornington 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:47.320 Peninsula in Victoria. He remain concerned about the ballooning debt 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.800 and whether the labor would follow through on the promises 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:54.760 that it's made again. There were a couple that were 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:56.680 pro but there were people like Sabrina, who was a 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.760 graphic designer and administration worker. She's thirty three. She lives 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:05.880 on Say's Lower North Shore. Her feelings were mixed. So 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.920 those that have paid incredible attention know that the only 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:12.040 number that matters out of this budget is the one 0:07:12.240 --> 0:07:18.360 trillion dollars. The political distraction is the five dollars a 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:22.520 week that doesn't kick in for another year. So anyone 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.720 who thinks that the election has been won or lost 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.680 by what happened in Cambera this week, you'd need to 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.720 get out more. Okay, And that's from the guy who 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:33.560 deep dives on the data of the electoral role to 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:36.560 see the changes seat by seat when it comes to 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:41.960 gender and age demographics. It's a lovely reminder, so make 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.240 sure you have conversations with people this weekend who you 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.440 know don't know as much about what's happened in Cambera 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:49.320 this week, because their reactions may shock you, but also 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:52.240 you might be an opportunity to tell them what you think, 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:56.000 which might lead them to maybe joining you and agree. 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.920 That's how elections are ultimately won and lost in Australia, 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.720 what our friends and what our family think, not what 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:06.800 the politicians tell you, or how the media spins the ball. 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.880 I've got plenty on that in a second, but I 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.600 want to turn my attention to what happens next. Last 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:15.040 night we did ninety minutes about the budget. You can 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:16.520 find all of that. It's gone news dot com. That 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.440 are you where I get into the details and I 0:08:18.480 --> 0:08:20.360 tell you the five things you need to know. Here's 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:24.680 the deal. The next little while is important, not just 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:26.280 because there's the election, but there's a bunch of stuff 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.720 between now and the election, including tomorrow night. The big 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:31.880 test for Peter Dutton his budget and reply speech. Now 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:34.240 there will be such pressure put on him by the 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:38.640 Labor Party that unless he produces one hundred ideas and 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:41.559 he produces documents as thick as a federal budget, and 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.920 somehow it's all flimsy and a failure. What the reality 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:48.120 is that Opposition doesn't have the ability to access the 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:50.680 treasury the same way that the government does. They have 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.480 to do it with a much smaller team. But still 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:56.320 big ideas have to be expected out of Peter Dutton tomorrow. 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.000 And I've got faith and Peter Dutton to be able 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.720 to deliver some of these. Why because if you've actually 0:09:02.760 --> 0:09:04.800 been paying attention. He's already done it twice in his 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:09.120 budget and reply speeches. Now, remember Australia has not dumped 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:13.000 the first term government in what a century. Most likely 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:17.800 the first term opposition doesn't end up forming the beginnings 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:20.360 of the team that ends up winning an election. But 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:23.319 we know how things are razor tight, and in part 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:25.760 that has been in fact, largely that has been because 0:09:25.920 --> 0:09:29.480 of Peter Dutton's ability to go around the gatekeepers and 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.360 get to big ideas like nuclear energy and also big 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.960 ideas that are very popular with people, so popular that 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.640 the government stole the idea, remember, which was to ban 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:42.760 foreign investors in the Australian property market for the next 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.200 couple of years. His version, of course, is harsher than 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:48.760 the government's version, and he knows that we need to 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:50.960 do something about seriously dealing with the number of people 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.760 who come into the country, because of course it is 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.240 the Ponzi scheme of the federal budget. The more people 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:59.280 you add, theoretically, the more tax payers you add, theoretically, 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.840 the more tax you can theoretically you get closer towards 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.480 a balanced budget. But as you know, this budget is 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.920 deeply in deficit, as will be next year, the year after, 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:09.760 the year after, the year after, the year after, the 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:13.520 year after. The Camera collective is talking about ten years. 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:16.000 The Intergenerational Report, which I talk about every night, says 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:19.120 it's to the twenty and sixties that we are in 0:10:19.120 --> 0:10:22.200 this world of pain. But the reality about why you 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:25.160 have to pump the brakes seriously pump breaks on immigration 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:28.920 is because there's not enough houses. The infrastructure does not 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:31.840 match the current population of twenty seven million, let alone 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.760 the inevitable twenty eight, twenty nine, thirty two, thirty five, 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:39.040 thirty six and forty million people that the big Australia 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:44.320 crowd want to be Australia in twenty sixty when we're 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.600 still running budget deficits. So watch this space. We'll have 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.880 full reaction to everything that happens tomorrow night. The speech 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.560 happens live same time as the Treasurer seven thirty camera 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.960 time and full analysis with us at nine o'clock about 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:59.040 those big ideas. Again, just like the budget, one night 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.560 does not change every thing, but it will shape the 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.600 fight because increasingly you've got to put the meat on 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.440 the table earlier than normal because half the electric votes. 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:14.120 Remember before actual election day, we will be with the 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.560 opposition leader, the alternaty Prime Minister Monday taking questions from 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:19.600 the viewers of this program. We've got a very full 0:11:19.640 --> 0:11:21.640 pub in his electric in Dixon and a lot of 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:24.120 very smart people wanting to ask very direct questions. They 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:27.240 will have plenty more. I have no doubt after tomorrow 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:30.400 night and the budget in reply. But after the Peter 0:11:30.480 --> 0:11:33.120 Dunton's speech, the expectation is that the Prime Minister is 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.199 going to go to the Governor General and call the election. Now, 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.280 this could happen as early as Friday. That was what 0:11:39.320 --> 0:11:43.240 Philip Query was suggesting in the Financial Review. That would 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.800 be unorthodox because generally speaking, you don't call an election 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.560 on anything but a Sunday. Why because traditionally that has 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.679 been the biggest TV night for the six pm News. 0:11:52.679 --> 0:11:55.360 But it's a very different world now. So just wanting 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.240 to start the starter's gun means if nothing else, he's 0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:02.280 able to have a bigger subject to talk about them 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:05.600 whatever Peter doudn't puts on the table tomorrow, But that 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.280 may be delayed by a week, It may be delayed 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:12.239 by two weeks. We are now down to three potential 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:16.760 election dates. One of them is absolutely the last possible date. 0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.120 Because the parliament is done, the full term is done 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.040 by May the seventeenth, he must have an election before then. 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:24.320 So will it be the third of May, will be 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.960 the tenth of May? Will it be the seventeenth of May. 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.480 And I know that there's something happening on each of 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:32.720 these days. It could be a rugby league. I think 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.440 something magic round on one of these days. There's obviously 0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:38.240 always a religious holiday. The point is people vote early. 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.040 Half of four people will vote like two weeks before 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:45.200 the actual election day. So the actual date and those 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:46.920 that say you can't do that date because of this, 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:48.840 this and this, that doesn't matter as much as it 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:52.679 used to. But also looking forward, and that's what we're 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:54.320 going to try to do here, to try to not 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:56.600 hold your hand, but tell you about what's coming up 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.000 and around the corner, so nothing is a surprise. There 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.160 are two mass dates that happen between now and any 0:13:02.240 --> 0:13:06.160 of those election dates. The first Reserve Bank Board meeting 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:10.280 that is due to happen on Monday, upcoming Monday. The 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.000 announcement of whether they hold rates or drop rates, Well, 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:16.840 that could well happen, and a second rate cup will 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.600 obviously be interpreted as good for the Arbenezi government. Again, 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:24.800 I think when you've had twelve increases to reductions are 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:26.920 not going to result in again huge amounts of money. 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:29.160 They're going to change people's fortunes, but it'll feed into 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:31.920 the narrative of the government that everything is behind us, 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:34.640 that the worst is behind us. The second and perhaps 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:40.040 more important date happens the following day, next Tuesday or 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.280 Wednesday as straight in time, but Tuesday in the United States, 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:45.040 and that is the second of April where Donald Trump 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:49.560 will make his next round of tariff announcements. Now apparently 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.840 there are going to be some exemptions for some countries, 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.120 some industry, so hopefully Australia falls into that category. And 0:13:55.240 --> 0:13:57.840 as much as I can't stand Kevin Rudd, the fielding's 0:13:57.920 --> 0:13:59.880 mutual and I'm not going to vote for the Prime Minister, 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.079 and fairly would be mutual if I ever put my 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:05.360 name on a ballot. Not going to happen. But as 0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:07.600 I've said before, even though I'm somebody who's on the 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.760 Trump train, got the red hat, listen to Steve Bannon, 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.520 I'm completely across all things Maga, mahar and all in between. 0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:19.000 I know the difference between dark Maga Ultramaga all of that, 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:21.920 but the majority of Australians don't have a positive view 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:25.680 of President Trump. So Anthony Abernezi would love nothing more than, 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.200 in the first week of an election campaign, if you 0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:30.480 can't get the interest rate cut well, to be able 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.000 to get into some sort of verbal fight with a 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.280 president who, yes, you'll have to deal with for the 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:39.200 next three years, but ultimately he would love that as 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:42.120 the giant distraction. These are the things that can change 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.720 the subject. And from any center left politicians who have 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.120 had really bad political fortunes because they have been in 0:14:48.200 --> 0:14:51.240 charge of countries with horrible cost of living situations, their 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:56.160 numbers have spiked when they end up in a verbal stoush. 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:00.720 So tomorrow night you get Dutton's supply speech, maybe as 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.400 early as Friday, we get an election. On Monday, we'll 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.200 find out whether the interest rates are going to drop, 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.880 and then on Tuesday or Wednesday we will find out 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:13.440 whether we're going to be further into issues when it 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:15.440 comes to tariff with Donald Trump. All of those things 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:17.720 are going to be much more consequential in terms of 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.600 how the politics works, what the conversations are around the 0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:23.160 kitchen table, Because I would pretty much guarantee that most 0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:25.160 of those people who knew nothing about the budget certainly 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:28.800 know something about Donald Trump. But one thing that has 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:30.880 absolutely changed, and I told you, I'll tell you when 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:34.360 it happened. The book is are now backing Labor as 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:38.360 the favorite for this election. So now what we are 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:41.400 going to be talking about is a most likely outcome 0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.560 that Labour gets returned. Now, all suggestions would be that 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.280 it would be in a minority. How big that number 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.400 of cross benches are, who the Prime Minister would need 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:51.760 to hold on to power, Well, that will be the 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.680 difference between whether it's going to be relatively stable or 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:58.240 total train wreck. Just two weeks ago, the Libs were 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:01.560 in front by some margin. Weeks ago, the Labor Party 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.680 was paying closer to three dollars than one dollar. Now 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:08.240 they're closer to one dollar than two. Well, actually they're 0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:13.280 closer to two, but you get my point. Now, there 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.320 is in my view, only one number that truly will 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.440 live forever out of this federal budget. And I don't 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.960 care how it goes down with the media. I care 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:26.320 about how it goes down with you, me and future generations. 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:32.600 One trillion dollars in debt in this next financial year. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:34.760 That is how much the Australian federal government will go 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:36.560 to the rest of the world. That works out at 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:38.960 for a baby born yesterday and a person who will 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:43.440 die tomorrow, thirty six thousand, six hundred and seventeen dollars 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.640 per person. That number goes up to one hundred and 0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.840 seventy five thousand dollars for every person who is under 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:54.480 the age of eighteen. That number is a disgrace. As 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:57.520 I said, the battle of this budget is going to 0:16:57.520 --> 0:16:59.840 be will you remember five dollars in a year's time? 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:04.160 You remember are trillion dollars now. But let's talk about 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.560 how the media focused in and around this budget after 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:09.640 being locked up for hours and wanting to do their 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:12.640 best to continue the narrative that things are looking better 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:14.480 for the government, so much so that the bookies now 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.560 have them as the favorites. So what did they focus on. 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:19.720 Did they focus on five dollars in a year's time 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:25.760 or are trillion dollars that Australia has to pay back sometime? 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:31.600 Big headline that those surprise tax carts benefiting twelve million workers. 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.480 More tax cuts for all two stages up to five 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.240 hundred and thirty six dollars a year. 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.399 A tax cut. This is a pretty straight up and 0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:39.000 down sweetener. 0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:41.440 It's worth five hundred and thirty six dollars a year 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:42.399 for the average worker. 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.480 Again, go the biggest number. Don't worry about going to 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:50.400 find people who truly need this sort of stuff lower 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.400 income tax owners. Forget dividing it by a month, forget 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:55.120 even dividing it by a week. But of course people 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.800 get paid weekly, fortnightly, monthly. They don't end up getting 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:02.200 paid annually. But there's one reporter in particular that it 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.240 won't be surprising. Did everything they good to try to 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.719 hide the one trillion dollar number. Now, that is an 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:12.520 extraordinary number. It's an extraordinary number that you would think 0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:15.920 would be worth mentioning. But no left Laura Tingle Well, 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:18.159 she of course had her opportunity to sit there for 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.400 a few hours and write a little thing before THEBC 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:23.919 coverage last night, and this was her coverage when it 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.960 came to the budget. Put simply, the Labor Party could 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:32.760 have written this themselves. This is straight down the middle analysis. 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:36.680 There is a much more confident tone to the Treasurer's 0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:39.480 language and the budget forecasts than we have seen in 0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.399 some time. The lurking fear that a recession is not 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.720 far away has disappeared. In dollar terms, that means growth 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:48.520 in the economy is forecast to add thirty six point 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.600 four billion dollars to the budget, which will in turn 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.000 fund thirty four point eight billion dollars of policy decisions 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:59.000 outline tonight. That is, the government strategy has worked. The 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:02.400 seventeen billion dollar tax cuts announced in the budget, which 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.960 had not been expected, will give angry voters, particularly those 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:09.239 who have been disillusioned and disengaged, a reason to at 0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.680 least pay a little more attention. The forecasts suggest, if 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.879 not some this uplands a slightly kinder economy in the 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:18.840 next year or two, in which people will enjoy lower 0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:22.640 interest rates more disposable income. The government scores pretty well 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.160 in this budget. The budget gives the government an alibi 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.200 for most issues going into the election campaign, which will 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:32.520 make the coalition's critiques of its strategy look somewhat pallid. 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:40.080 Not one mention of a trillion dollars debt, not one 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:43.680 mention of it. Of course, there was plenty of critiques 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:46.119 for the Liberal Party, but of course, the difference between me, 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:50.320 the dirty opinion man, and her the award winning reporter 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:52.000 is what. 0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.280 Once the government has their attention, it can point to 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.800 the other cost of living measures it has been rolling out, 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:05.320 including energy relief, many care bolt billing, and cutting pharmaceutical prices, 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:08.720 and once again it can point out the coalition's past 0:20:08.760 --> 0:20:11.359 opposition to many of those measures. The budget gives the 0:20:11.359 --> 0:20:14.720 government an alibi for most issues going into the election campaign, 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:17.840 which will make the coalition's critiques of its strategy look 0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:20.680 somewhat pallid. Higher migration is already a target of the 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.879 Coalition and this forecast is likely to be an easy 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:26.480 point of attack as it considers how it responds to 0:20:26.520 --> 0:20:29.199 this budget and to alls us what it says it 0:20:29.240 --> 0:20:29.520 will do. 0:20:30.960 --> 0:20:35.280 Seriously, again, this is straight down the middle reporting just 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:39.040 nothing but polish for the Labor Party, nothing but polish. 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:43.080 No reference to a trillion dollars, no one grabbing the 0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:46.399 calculator to work out how much that is for every individual. 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:51.640 No focus on the budget deficits, which of course leads 0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:54.200 to the overall picture when it comes to debt. Are 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.520 you surprised? This is what I talk about when I 0:20:57.560 --> 0:20:59.920 talk about the home team advantage of the Labor Party 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.560 for much of the Camper press gallery. Now there are exceptions, 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:05.600 and I apologize to those people of whom sometimes they 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.320