WEBVTT - Kevin Rudd tackles Xi Jinping

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<v Speaker 1>You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker

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<v Speaker 1>the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's

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<v Speaker 1>on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, October sixteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Albanezi says he's in politics for the long haul

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<v Speaker 1>after the opposition suggested his purchase of a four point

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<v Speaker 1>three million dollar beach house suggests he's planning for life

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<v Speaker 1>after the lodge. The Greens have attacked the purchase, coming

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<v Speaker 1>as Australians struggle with the cost of housing. A gold

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<v Speaker 1>mine proposed for Waddery Country in New South Wales was

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<v Speaker 1>blocked after activists cited as evidence an artwork of a

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<v Speaker 1>blue banded bee, but now links between the activists and

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<v Speaker 1>the artists are emerging. Those stories alive now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot Com dot a you. Kevin rad says the

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<v Speaker 1>US and Australia must deter China's Shishinping from invading Taiwan

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<v Speaker 1>with catastrophic consequences. Today a provocative book by a very

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<v Speaker 1>unusual diplomat.

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<v Speaker 2>Well the b are you Chump? Well, how's you get? Bye?

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<v Speaker 2>Undred Bay Light way in.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Kevin brad Way back in twenty eleven doing

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of a humble brag about his ability to

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<v Speaker 1>speak Mandarin. He says, my Mandarin is very bad. It's

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<v Speaker 1>getting worse and worse. I'm one hundred percent of foreigner,

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<v Speaker 1>so I don't understand many Chinese characters. The host asks

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<v Speaker 1>if you'd compare himself to famous Chinese leader Dang Zhoping,

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<v Speaker 1>who returned multiple times to the leadership. This was in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eleven. Remember when Julia Gillard had deposed Rudd and

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<v Speaker 1>Rudd was cooling his heels as Foreign Minister. Oh no, no,

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<v Speaker 1>chortles Rudd. Dung is a hugely influential figure who's changed

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<v Speaker 1>the world. I'm just an Australian politician.

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<v Speaker 2>Na shall rush for brother that done Joping Pasha Tungwar.

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<v Speaker 1>Rud did, of course come back again, knifing Gillard to

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<v Speaker 1>become PM and lead Labor to defeat at the twenty

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<v Speaker 1>thirteen election. He's not just your average politician. Rudd has

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<v Speaker 1>been an academic and a diplomat, writing a pH d

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<v Speaker 1>thesis on China's present leader Shi Shinping. Now he's Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>ambassador to the United States, and he's turned that thesis

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<v Speaker 1>into a book in a very undiplomatic kind of way.

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<v Speaker 1>Rudd's thesis is that she has fundamentally changed China and

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<v Speaker 1>must now be deterred from invading Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 3>He argues, the danger period is now.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Kelly is the Australian's National Affairs editor. He's reporting

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<v Speaker 1>from Washington, DC, and he obtained an early copy of

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<v Speaker 1>Rudd's new book.

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<v Speaker 3>The danger period will last as long as Xijinping is

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<v Speaker 3>in power. This is an extremely hawkish interpretation of Xijinping

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<v Speaker 3>and his influence on China, and the case that Kevin

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<v Speaker 3>Rudd makes is that there isn't sufficient appreciation of Xijinping's

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<v Speaker 3>ideological worldview and how that worldview has influenced all aspects

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<v Speaker 3>of Chinese society.

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<v Speaker 1>Rudd says she isn't just another leader. He says the

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<v Speaker 1>force of his personality and the totalitarian control of China

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<v Speaker 1>is so great that he has fundamentally shifted the behavior

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<v Speaker 1>of that nation. The biggest risk, Rudd says, is that

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<v Speaker 1>she will invade Taiwan and fundamentally shake the world.

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<v Speaker 3>He says, if Xijinping is successful in reclaiming Taiwan, that

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<v Speaker 3>his position will then be unassailable. Then the US will

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<v Speaker 3>go into a period of global decline, and from that

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<v Speaker 3>moment the path of world affairs will irrevocably change.

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<v Speaker 4>War whatever its outcome, would generate death and destruction at

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<v Speaker 4>an unimaginable scale. It would also redefine Chinese, American and

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<v Speaker 4>global politics and geopolitics in deeply unpredictable yet indelible ways.

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<v Speaker 3>However, if Jijinping fails, if he launches an attempt to

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<v Speaker 3>retake Taiwan and fails, this will be seen as a

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<v Speaker 3>moment of humiliation for him, a repudiation of his own beliefs,

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<v Speaker 3>and a letdown for China generally. He also says that

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<v Speaker 3>if the United States and it's allies can engineer a

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<v Speaker 3>situation where the stakes are seen to be too high

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<v Speaker 3>for Jijinping to risk an attempt to reclaim Taiwan, it's

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<v Speaker 3>unlikely that Jijinping's successor would try to take the island territory.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that is the trajectory Kevin Rudder is

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<v Speaker 3>hoping will unfold in real time.

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<v Speaker 4>She's intention is not just to change China, it is

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<v Speaker 4>also to change the international order itself underpinned by an

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<v Speaker 4>increasingly powerful China as the emerging geopolitical and geoeconomic fulcrum

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<v Speaker 4>of that order.

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<v Speaker 1>Geoeconomic fulcrum is a classic Ruddism. It was this brand

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<v Speaker 1>of hyper articulate, folksy geekdom that made an unlikely popular

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<v Speaker 1>hero when he was first elected in two thousand and seven.

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<v Speaker 1>Rud says, she's China has rewritten the rules. Its economy

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<v Speaker 1>is so huge it can disrupt every market, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>prompting the rest of the world to react by returning

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<v Speaker 1>to protectionism to try to save their local economies. But

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<v Speaker 1>change is coming. China's population growth is slowing. It's no

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<v Speaker 1>longer the world's most populous nation. That's now India.

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<v Speaker 4>The one child policy has produced an unprecedented gender imbalance

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<v Speaker 4>within the country of more than thirty million after decades

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<v Speaker 4>of male preference, sex selective abortion, and female infanticide. This

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<v Speaker 4>has resulted in an unofficial policy of sending large numbers

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<v Speaker 4>of unmarried men to the developing world to find partners,

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<v Speaker 4>build businesses, and strengthen familial ties with the motherland.

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<v Speaker 1>All this is highly unusual from a diplomat.

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<v Speaker 3>Cavin RD is an unusual all person to have appointed

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<v Speaker 3>as an ambassador. He has a great depth of experience.

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<v Speaker 3>He is a former Prime minister, he is a former

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<v Speaker 3>foreign minister. He is one of the leading experts in

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<v Speaker 3>the world on Chinese foreign policy. And so that means

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<v Speaker 3>that Kevin was always going to take a different approach

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<v Speaker 3>to this job. So I think when Anthony Alberanizi made

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<v Speaker 3>that appointment, he would have known that it would have

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<v Speaker 3>come with various political consequences, and he must have known

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<v Speaker 3>that he would need to wear those political consequences.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. This means for Australia's relationship with China. He

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<v Speaker 1>is the crux of Rudd's book. He says, Shi Shinping

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<v Speaker 1>hopes that is owing topretation of Marxist ideology, a tightly

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<v Speaker 1>controlled economy, a repressed population, and an aggressive form of

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<v Speaker 1>nationalism can change the way the world thinks about democracy

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<v Speaker 1>and human rights. Rudd says, one factor working against she

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<v Speaker 1>is that he is, like the rest of us, mortal.

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<v Speaker 4>He would probably have to maintain power well into his

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<v Speaker 4>nineties to appoint enough ideologically reliable, younger Karters to enable

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<v Speaker 4>his long term political strategy to take root.

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<v Speaker 1>China is famously thin skinned and defensive. So could this

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<v Speaker 1>trigger another trade war? Joe doesn't think so.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I don't think there's any risk Kevin Rudd's book

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<v Speaker 3>will ignite that kind of retaliation. Kevin Rudd makes the

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<v Speaker 3>point that China has deliberately changed its tactical diplomacy, a

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<v Speaker 3>tactical decision was taken to try and better leverage Chinese

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<v Speaker 3>influence in the world, that they would shift their approach,

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<v Speaker 3>but this ultimately would be directed at trying to maximize

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<v Speaker 3>Chinese influence to achieve its long term strategic objectives. I

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<v Speaker 3>think China will continue along that current path of normalizing

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<v Speaker 3>relations because it sees that at the moment as the

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<v Speaker 3>best trajectory towards its long term goals.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Keilly is The Australian's National Affairs editor. You can

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<v Speaker 1>read all the best analysis of China from our own

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<v Speaker 1>Will Glasgow, the only Australian correspondent resident in China right now,

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<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot au