WEBVTT - Dodging Trump’s huge steel tariff

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, February eleventh. Chris Dawson's lawyers are seeking leave

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<v Speaker 1>to appeal to the High Court against his conviction for

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<v Speaker 1>murdering his wife, Lynette Simms. The former footballer who was

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<v Speaker 1>charged after The Australian's podcast The Teacher's Pet, says the

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<v Speaker 1>criminal courts have got it wrong and he couldn't get

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<v Speaker 1>a fair trial because police took nearly four decades to

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<v Speaker 1>charge him. Ancient cave paintings on the Knullyball Plane in

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<v Speaker 1>South Australia are at serious risk of decay. That's according

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<v Speaker 1>to scientists and indigenous owners. Research and conservation have been

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<v Speaker 1>halted because two groups of traditional owners and native title

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<v Speaker 1>holders can't agree on who should oversee the painstaking work.

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<v Speaker 1>Those exclusives alive now at the Australian dot Com dot

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<v Speaker 1>a U. The pressure's on for Anthony Albnezy and Ambassador

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<v Speaker 1>Kevin Rudd to persuade Donald Trump to exempt Australia from

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<v Speaker 1>sweeping twenty five percent tariffs on steel and aluminium. The

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister says he's got a phone call lined up

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<v Speaker 1>with the White House, but in the policy whirlwind of Washington, DC,

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<v Speaker 1>Will Australia's please be heard? That's today's episode. Before we start,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a bit of Billy Connolly and therefore some swearing

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<v Speaker 1>in this episode. We want yes and that, we demand

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<v Speaker 1>the share of that and most of that, some of

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<v Speaker 1>this and fucking all of that. This episode of the

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<v Speaker 1>Front is about Donald Trump, but sometimes the person to

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<v Speaker 1>best sum up the mood of the moment is Billy Connolly.

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<v Speaker 2>And another thing, we want no, I want it, yes

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<v Speaker 2>are they? I want fucking lord tomorrow and the demands

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<v Speaker 2>will all be changed. A fucking stairwek.

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<v Speaker 1>The Scottish comedic genius, was talking about the women's movement

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<v Speaker 1>back in the eighties, but he could have been talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the first three weeks of the Trump administration. Reducks.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm having an early morning shock every single day, Claire.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the most remarkable news cycle I can recall in

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<v Speaker 3>forty years of journalism. Donald Trump mark two is not

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<v Speaker 3>just one announcement a day. It's about seven different major

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<v Speaker 3>announcements a day. It's been absolutely spectacular.

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<v Speaker 1>That's Cameron Stewart, the Australian's chief international correspondent, and we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about Trump's latest big announcement. Mad to board Air

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<v Speaker 1>Force One as he traveled to the Super Bowl in

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<v Speaker 1>New Orleans, the first sitting president to attend America's most

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<v Speaker 1>sacred sporting day. Trump was mid sentence in his leather

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<v Speaker 1>armchair chatting to a group of reporters when an announcement

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<v Speaker 1>came from the cockpit.

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<v Speaker 4>Ya, in a gentleman, if you could please direct your

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<v Speaker 4>opinion out the right flout of the aircraft. The Air

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<v Speaker 4>Force One is currently in international waters the first time

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<v Speaker 4>in history, applying over the recently renamed tom of America.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, who did that? Well again, that's all we care about. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>here we go.

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<v Speaker 1>In the days since we did our last episode about

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, the President has renamed the Gulf of Mexico.

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<v Speaker 1>He's announced the United States will own Gaza. He's reintroducing

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<v Speaker 1>plastic straws, sacking thousands of federal public servants, sanctioning the

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<v Speaker 1>International Criminal Court, negotiating between Live Golf and the PGA,

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<v Speaker 1>releasing water from Californian dams to fight wildfires. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is the bit that sent international markets and the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>government into Defcon one.

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<v Speaker 2>We will also be announcing steel tariffs on Mondays, while Monday,

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<v Speaker 2>yuh tomorrow, pot Patris Wile has gone everybody Steell, including Canada,

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<v Speaker 2>Eddy Steele coming into the United States is going to

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<v Speaker 2>have a twenty five percent going to do a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit to twenty percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Or just like that, the President sent markets into meltdown

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<v Speaker 1>with a new iteration of his ideas on free trade

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<v Speaker 1>and protectionism. Last year, Australia sent about a billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>worth of steel and aluminium to the United States that.

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<v Speaker 3>Would be in Australian jobs would be lost, it would

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<v Speaker 3>be a real problem for the Australian economy and it

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<v Speaker 3>would be a major, major bilateral issue between the two countries.

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<v Speaker 3>So we are basically looking at a situation clear where

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<v Speaker 3>all the things that have been speculated about the Trump

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<v Speaker 3>administration and Australia, we will find some big answers in

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<v Speaker 3>the next couple of days as to exactly what Donald

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<v Speaker 3>Trump thinks of Australia, exactly what he thinks of the friendship,

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<v Speaker 3>the alliance, and exactly how far he wants to push.

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<v Speaker 1>Things in his first administration, Trump talked like an old

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<v Speaker 1>school protectionist. I'm here for American jobs and tariffs are

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<v Speaker 1>a tool to protect American manufacturing from cheap foreign imports.

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<v Speaker 1>Last week, it looked like Trump was using tariffs as

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<v Speaker 1>a lever a tool of political pressure. Columbia wouldn't accept

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<v Speaker 1>military flights full of deportees, so Trump threatened a giant

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<v Speaker 1>tariff on all Colombian goods. Trump said Canada wasn't doing

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<v Speaker 1>enough to stop the flow of drugs like fentanyl over

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<v Speaker 1>the border, so he slapped them with tariffs on air

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<v Speaker 1>Force one. Trump said, any country that imposes tariffs on

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<v Speaker 1>American goods will get a taste of its own medicine.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll be announcing probably Tuesday, on Wednesday at a newscar

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<v Speaker 2>forms reciprocal tariffs, and very simply, if they charge us,

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<v Speaker 2>we charged them.

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<v Speaker 3>Of course. In twenty eighteen, Trump tried to put tariffs

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<v Speaker 3>on a bunch of countries for steel aliminium, exactly the

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<v Speaker 3>same concept. He exempted Australia at that point, in part

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<v Speaker 3>because a US has a trade surplus with Australia, so

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<v Speaker 3>we don't fall into the category of a problem child

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<v Speaker 3>when it comes to other countries trading with America. We

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<v Speaker 3>have a free trade agreement, America has a healthy trade surplus,

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<v Speaker 3>so there's not really any concept for Trump to get

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<v Speaker 3>angry at Australia in the same way it gets angry

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<v Speaker 3>with other countries which have a trade deficit. So that

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<v Speaker 3>is hugely to Australia's advantage economically, quite apart from the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that we are the closest military alliance to United

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<v Speaker 3>States really of almost any country in the world. So

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<v Speaker 3>there are so many arguments which the government can throw

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<v Speaker 3>towards Donald Trump to argue for an exemption, but of

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<v Speaker 3>course that doesn't guarantee anything.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why Anthony Albanezi is now scrambling to get Trump

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone. Australia's biggest steelmaker, blue Scope, which makes coloor, bond,

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<v Speaker 1>roof and fencing sheets, has a huge steel mill in

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<v Speaker 1>Ohio and employees about four thousand people.

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<v Speaker 3>In theory, this be a non starter for this tariff

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<v Speaker 3>threat from Trump to Australia because of the security and

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<v Speaker 3>economic situation between the two countries. But you never know,

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<v Speaker 3>that's absolutely not a guarantee with Donald Trump. Mark too.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, just go and ask Canada. I mean, there

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<v Speaker 3>you have a country as friendly as you could ever

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<v Speaker 3>be with the United States that's facing twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs not just on overall, but also on their still

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<v Speaker 3>and now luminium as well. So the friendship factor with

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<v Speaker 3>Trump in the second term is still a very opaque one.

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<v Speaker 3>It's very, very hard to get a reading on where

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<v Speaker 3>America's good friends stand. And that's why it's hard to

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<v Speaker 3>get a reading on this with Australia because we are

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<v Speaker 3>going to come across his radar for the first time

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<v Speaker 3>in his presidency in a big way with this policy.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. Can Anthony Albanezi and his ambassador secure a

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<v Speaker 1>deal with be ultimate deal maker? It feels like a

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<v Speaker 1>million years ago, but it was Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull

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<v Speaker 1>who negotiated Australia an exemption from exactly this tariff last

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<v Speaker 1>time it was proposed. His ambassador was Joe Hockey, who

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<v Speaker 1>famously had a kind of golf relationship with Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>They were kind of buddies. Now Anthony Albernese's ambassador in Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>DC is Kevin Rudd, who has been very prickly about

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump, and it would seem that the feeling is mutual.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think this says about Anthony Albanese's choice

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<v Speaker 1>of Kevin Radd and his decision to stick with him.

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<v Speaker 1>In the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Anthony Albanese's decision to appoint Kevin Rudd was

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<v Speaker 3>always slightly risky given and Albanese's previous criticism off Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>But then you know, the Vice President JD. Evans criticized

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<v Speaker 3>Trump a lot, so did Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State,

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<v Speaker 3>So it's certainly not a disqualifying factor, and at that

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<v Speaker 3>point in time, to be fair, Trump was not really

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<v Speaker 3>in the picture for a second term. Look, I think

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<v Speaker 3>that a lot of this stuff about the personalities when

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<v Speaker 3>we talked about Albanesi and Rudd and Trump are overblown.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that these decisions get made fundamentally on issues

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<v Speaker 3>on realities rather than personalities. Yes, they're not of the

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<v Speaker 3>same stripe politically as Trump compared to Malcolm Turnbull and

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<v Speaker 3>Joe Hockey, but I mean Albanesi had a very friendly

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<v Speaker 3>first phone call with Donald Trump. Rudd has subsequently met

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<v Speaker 3>with Trump, is certainly very well connected to a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of Republicans. So I think personally that these issues of

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<v Speaker 3>politics and personality are more overblown than they should be,

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<v Speaker 3>and that really this decision will come down to fairly

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<v Speaker 3>hard nuts decisions about the interest of various countries, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think Trump will be persuaded that Australia should get

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<v Speaker 3>an exemption because it's in America's interest as much as Australia's.

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<v Speaker 1>Something that's changed since last time Donald Trump was in

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<v Speaker 1>the White House is the Orchest Treaty between Australia, the U,

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<v Speaker 1>the United States and the UK, which of course involves

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<v Speaker 1>building nuclear submarines here in Australia. How much will that

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<v Speaker 1>play into this, if at all.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, this actually increases Australia's leverage in this argument compared

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<v Speaker 3>to twenty eighteen, when, of course AUCUST didn't exist. And

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<v Speaker 3>it's quite good timing in one sense, Claire, because we've

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<v Speaker 3>just had Richard Miles go over the Defense Minister and

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<v Speaker 3>give several hundred million dollars towards the American nuclear submarine project.

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<v Speaker 3>Because Australia is tipping in US three billion dollars to

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<v Speaker 3>help the US submarine nuclear production in the United States

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<v Speaker 3>as part of August, that is a very big selling

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<v Speaker 3>point for Donald Trump. Now remember this is the same

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<v Speaker 3>president who exempted Australia last time without AUCUST. So I

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<v Speaker 3>think if you look just at the facts, there is

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<v Speaker 3>a greater argument for Donald Trump to exempt Australia this

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<v Speaker 3>time round than there was before.

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<v Speaker 4>Now.

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<v Speaker 3>The only rider I would put to this is that

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump is a different president at this time round.

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<v Speaker 3>He loves taris even more than a get in his

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<v Speaker 3>first term. So the question is that how much does

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<v Speaker 3>he love his tariffs. In theory, Australia should get off,

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<v Speaker 3>but we just don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can

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<v Speaker 1>read all our analysis of what this means for Australian

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<v Speaker 1>business and everyone else right now at the Australian dot

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<v Speaker 1>com dot au