WEBVTT - Lollies for everyone in a ‘tricky’ Budget

0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.320
<v Speaker 1>All a right to go from The Australian. Here's what's

0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:08.160
<v Speaker 1>on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's our special episode

0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:10.160
<v Speaker 1>fresh from the Federal Budget Lockup.

0:00:11.720 --> 0:00:14.239
<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Budget twenty twenty four to twenty five

0:00:14.360 --> 0:00:17.919
<v Speaker 2>lock Up. I'm not bringing mobile phones or smart watches

0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:20.400
<v Speaker 2>into the lockup or gets documents, just to make sure

0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:24.280
<v Speaker 2>that not publish, transmit, release, or disclose in any manner

0:00:24.360 --> 0:00:26.600
<v Speaker 2>budget information until the embargo.

0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:26.880
<v Speaker 3>Is left it.

0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.240
<v Speaker 1>We'll take you behind the scenes as the Australians journalists

0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:34.239
<v Speaker 1>break down the budget inside Treasuries secure embargoed lockup at

0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:35.559
<v Speaker 1>Federal Parliament in Canberra.

0:00:35.840 --> 0:00:40.560
<v Speaker 4>So the money's really going out yeah, absence of a productivity.

0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:45.199
<v Speaker 2>Yes, probably low balling.

0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:47.239
<v Speaker 1>And will break down the spin to work out what

0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.960
<v Speaker 1>this budget means for your business and household. There's a

0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.360
<v Speaker 1>lot to read in this Federal budget and luckily our

0:00:53.400 --> 0:00:55.600
<v Speaker 1>experts have done the hard work for you. You can

0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.680
<v Speaker 1>check out their frank analysis right now at the Australian

0:00:58.800 --> 0:00:59.640
<v Speaker 1>dot com dot a.

0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:04.280
<v Speaker 4>U Kelly, thank you, Thank you, Patrick.

0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:08.080
<v Speaker 5>Brazie Lewis.

0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:13.520
<v Speaker 1>My name's Green Brown. A bigger than expected nine point

0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:17.400
<v Speaker 1>three billion dollar surplus this year, followed by deficits over

0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:21.240
<v Speaker 1>the coming four years. That's the top line from Jim

0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:25.240
<v Speaker 1>Chalmer's third federal budget. Today, we explore why the Federal

0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:29.000
<v Speaker 1>government is raking in more cash and spending much more

0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.440
<v Speaker 1>than expected, and what it all means for the government's

0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:43.039
<v Speaker 1>chances at the next election and all of our futures.

0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:45.120
<v Speaker 4>The greatest in the galaxy.

0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:47.680
<v Speaker 6>These are my daughters, character me and for father's it's

0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:49.400
<v Speaker 6>the least true thing that you'll read today.

0:01:52.720 --> 0:01:53.880
<v Speaker 4>Well, we want to talk to you.

0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.320
<v Speaker 1>Walking around the budget lockup inside Federal Parliament on Tuesday,

0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:03.240
<v Speaker 1>Jim Charmer was wearing socks chosen by his daughters which

0:02:03.280 --> 0:02:07.520
<v Speaker 1>said Galaxy's greatest Dad. The Treasurer was in a very

0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:15.400
<v Speaker 1>good mood, you d allous, And why shouldn't he be

0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:17.880
<v Speaker 1>in a good mood? The Treasurer feels this is a

0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.400
<v Speaker 1>budget that's going to achieve one of his biggest goals,

0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:25.440
<v Speaker 1>squashing inflation while helping households manage the cost of living.

0:02:26.240 --> 0:02:30.560
<v Speaker 1>That's a huge challenge, handing out Lolly's while preventing a

0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:35.799
<v Speaker 1>giant sugar rush. Dennis Anahan is The Australian's National editor. Dennis,

0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:36.799
<v Speaker 1>what sort of budget is this?

0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.200
<v Speaker 4>Well, it's a parachute budget. Clear this is if the

0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:44.840
<v Speaker 4>Labor government wants to hit the election silk this year

0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.919
<v Speaker 4>instead of when the election is due by May twenty five,

0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:50.040
<v Speaker 4>they can.

0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:54.840
<v Speaker 1>This is Jim Chalmer's third budget in the Albanese government,

0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.760
<v Speaker 1>and the Prime Minister has hinted there'll be another budget

0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:00.440
<v Speaker 1>in March to set the government up for the next election,

0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:04.000
<v Speaker 1>which is due to be held by May. Paul Kelly

0:03:04.120 --> 0:03:07.080
<v Speaker 1>is The Australian's Editor at large.

0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:11.560
<v Speaker 7>This is an audacious, high risk budget which exposes the

0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.960
<v Speaker 7>true character of the Labor Party and the fact that

0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:20.440
<v Speaker 7>it's dominated by the Treasurer, Jim Charmers. There's a conflict

0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:25.440
<v Speaker 7>between economics and politics. This has been the Treasurer's dilemma.

0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:29.520
<v Speaker 7>It's the dilemma of the Albanese government. The great risk

0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:33.679
<v Speaker 7>is that the government has opted for significant spending increases

0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.240
<v Speaker 7>over the next couple of years. What will that mean

0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:41.360
<v Speaker 7>for the economy and inflation? That is the great trap,

0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.840
<v Speaker 7>and the government's fortunes will rest on how that plays out.

0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:52.480
<v Speaker 6>A tax cut for every taxpayer, wages growing in every industry,

0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:56.520
<v Speaker 6>a better deal for every working parent, a fair ago

0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:57.800
<v Speaker 6>at every checkout.

0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.040
<v Speaker 1>Before every budget, the politicians drip out the good things

0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.800
<v Speaker 1>they want to shout about and the nasty bits they

0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.320
<v Speaker 1>want to get out of the way. Early we already

0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:10.920
<v Speaker 1>knew the government had dramatically rejigged the so called Stage

0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:14.280
<v Speaker 1>three tax cuts to ensure more money went to lower

0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:17.640
<v Speaker 1>paid Australians. We knew there'd be an eleven billion dollar

0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:21.440
<v Speaker 1>housing package, three hundred and thirty billion on new defense spending,

0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:24.400
<v Speaker 1>two hundred and twenty seven million for twenty nine new

0:04:24.640 --> 0:04:27.960
<v Speaker 1>urgent care Medicare clinics, and a big spend on what

0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:32.400
<v Speaker 1>the government's calling Future Made in Australia, supporting manufacturing and

0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.560
<v Speaker 1>production on shore. We knew the government would be wiping

0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:39.640
<v Speaker 1>three billion dollars in student debt for over three million Australians.

0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Here's the new stuff. The Future Made in Australia spend

0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:46.480
<v Speaker 1>will be twenty two point seven billion dollars, a huge

0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.680
<v Speaker 1>increase on what the government had already announced, and there's

0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:52.719
<v Speaker 1>an extra seven point eight billion in cost of living relief.

0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.839
<v Speaker 1>The biggest components of that are one point nine billion

0:04:55.880 --> 0:05:01.160
<v Speaker 1>dollars in Commonwealth rent assistance that'll benefit nearly one million households,

0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and there will be three point five billion dollars to

0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:07.680
<v Speaker 1>cut energy bills for every household. As charm has explained

0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.440
<v Speaker 1>during his budget speech to Parliament, as soon as the

0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:11.760
<v Speaker 1>lock up ended.

0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.440
<v Speaker 6>From July one, Australians will receive an energy rebate of

0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:19.120
<v Speaker 6>three hundred dollars and one million small businesses will get

0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:19.839
<v Speaker 6>a little bit more.

0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:22.960
<v Speaker 1>That's a huge amount of money to pump into the economy,

0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:27.360
<v Speaker 1>but pumping money into the economy usually pushes inflation up.

0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.200
<v Speaker 1>More spending equals prices going up, and that leads to

0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:35.159
<v Speaker 1>the Reserve Bank trying to squash inflation by raising interest rates.

0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:38.120
<v Speaker 1>That's what the Treasurer is trying to deal with.

0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:42.240
<v Speaker 4>It's a bit of a trick. It's an accounting trick

0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:46.040
<v Speaker 4>if you like. He says himself, housing and energy are

0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.080
<v Speaker 4>the big pressures. What he is doing is his saying

0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:53.839
<v Speaker 4>we are going to give every household, it's not means tested,

0:05:54.120 --> 0:06:01.320
<v Speaker 4>every household three hundred dollars rebate off their electricity. Now,

0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:07.400
<v Speaker 4>his argument is that you will actually reduce inflation because

0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:12.960
<v Speaker 4>what you're not giving people cash, you're actually reducing the bill.

0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:18.000
<v Speaker 4>So statistically, when the ABS looks at energy bills, there

0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:21.920
<v Speaker 4>will be three hundred dollars cheaper and he's used taxpayers

0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:22.640
<v Speaker 4>money to do it.

0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:24.840
<v Speaker 1>So instead of getting a check for three hundred dollars

0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.080
<v Speaker 1>from the government, my three hundred dollars will go to

0:06:27.120 --> 0:06:28.159
<v Speaker 1>my energy provider.

0:06:28.480 --> 0:06:30.880
<v Speaker 4>You're not going to get a cash bonus where you

0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:33.400
<v Speaker 4>can run off and buy a color television set. It

0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:38.000
<v Speaker 4>will be absolutely tied to your energy bill. And that's

0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:42.840
<v Speaker 4>why it will reduce inflation, the Treasury says by half

0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:48.440
<v Speaker 4>a percentage point by Christmas. Same on housing, they reduce

0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:53.039
<v Speaker 4>the cost of housing of rental through the rebate and

0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:57.599
<v Speaker 4>then that reduces the rental headline figure. So that's how

0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:01.800
<v Speaker 4>they do it, is they use our money to then say, well,

0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:03.159
<v Speaker 4>we've cut inflation for you.

0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:06.640
<v Speaker 1>By the way, Dennis has been covering budgets for more

0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:09.240
<v Speaker 1>than four decades and one of his specialties is digging

0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:10.720
<v Speaker 1>through the papers for tidbits.

0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:14.600
<v Speaker 4>Every budget. I love to look at the Risks pages.

0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.080
<v Speaker 4>There are all sorts of things there, you know, possibility

0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:20.720
<v Speaker 4>of another outbreak of cane toads or whatever. But the

0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.640
<v Speaker 4>classic this year was the fact that we're going to

0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:27.800
<v Speaker 4>have to take out one hundred million dollars in insuperant

0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:35.760
<v Speaker 4>in case an Australian rocket falls on a foreign person overseas.

0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:36.360
<v Speaker 1>Do we have any rockets?

0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:38.280
<v Speaker 4>Well, I don't know if we have any rockets. I

0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:39.480
<v Speaker 4>just hope they stay in the air.

0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:44.119
<v Speaker 1>One of the big questions the journos in the press

0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:46.680
<v Speaker 1>gallery were asking as they picked apart the budget is

0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.240
<v Speaker 1>when's the next election going to be. Australia has three

0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.760
<v Speaker 1>year terms for federal governments, but that's a maximum. Prime

0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.280
<v Speaker 1>ministers can request the Governor General call an election anytime.

0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.280
<v Speaker 1>That means Anthony Albanezi could bring on the election anytime

0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:06.760
<v Speaker 1>between now and May twenty twenty five. Budgets have a cycle.

0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:09.840
<v Speaker 1>The first budget of a new government is usually tough.

0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.440
<v Speaker 1>That's where governments make all the hard cuts they've been

0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:15.920
<v Speaker 1>itching to do. The cartoonists for papers like The Australian

0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:19.240
<v Speaker 1>tend to draw the treasurer as a grim reaper slashing

0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.280
<v Speaker 1>his sive. The closer to an election we get, the

0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.720
<v Speaker 1>more governments try to make voters feel good about them.

0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:27.480
<v Speaker 1>By the time an election is looming, the treasure returns

0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:30.520
<v Speaker 1>into the easter buney, everybody gets some chocolate.

0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.400
<v Speaker 3>There's seven point eight billion dollars in new cost of

0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:37.880
<v Speaker 3>living relief measures. These are measures on top of the

0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.040
<v Speaker 3>tax cuts we already knew were coming, and what we've

0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:44.960
<v Speaker 3>been able to discover by talking to the Treasury officials

0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:48.559
<v Speaker 3>in budget lock up is that the large bulk of

0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.920
<v Speaker 3>that money, three point three billion dollars of it, will

0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:57.000
<v Speaker 3>actually be spent next financial year, coincidentally, the year of

0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:02.280
<v Speaker 3>the election. This is the Australian's Rosy Lewis Anthony Albanesi

0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:06.880
<v Speaker 3>and Jim Chalmers are being more generous to all Australians

0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:12.679
<v Speaker 3>during an election year. We now have all households targeted

0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:17.680
<v Speaker 3>with the energy rebates, and they want to show that

0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:22.480
<v Speaker 3>they understand cost of living is biting for everyone, not

0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:25.600
<v Speaker 3>just low income households, which were really the focus of

0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:26.680
<v Speaker 3>last year's budget.

0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.120
<v Speaker 1>The other big thing the government has had to tackle

0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:33.040
<v Speaker 1>in this budget is migration, which has blown out since

0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.720
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. What have we learned in this budget about

0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:36.520
<v Speaker 1>what their plan is.

0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:42.800
<v Speaker 3>Interestingly, the net overseas migration number for the twenty three

0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.560
<v Speaker 3>to twenty four financial year has been revised up to

0:09:46.720 --> 0:09:51.280
<v Speaker 3>three hundred and ninety five thousand, but the government still

0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:55.520
<v Speaker 3>wants to achieve its goal of halving the number to

0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:59.160
<v Speaker 3>two hundred and sixty thousand next financial year, so they're

0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.600
<v Speaker 3>going to have to achieve a much steeper decrease in

0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.000
<v Speaker 3>that number. We've learned in recent days. The way they're

0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.240
<v Speaker 3>going to do that is through a clamp down on

0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:09.559
<v Speaker 3>international students.

0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:12.400
<v Speaker 1>Is that primarily a cost of living thing? Do you

0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:14.200
<v Speaker 1>think rosy? Is that why they care so much about

0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:15.040
<v Speaker 1>the migration number.

0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:19.960
<v Speaker 3>They are being very careful to show that they understand

0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:26.360
<v Speaker 3>migrants do impact on housing stock, so they're ensuring that

0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:33.199
<v Speaker 3>universities actually commit to delivering more student accommodation. So if

0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:38.120
<v Speaker 3>universities can't show they have somewhere for international and local

0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.839
<v Speaker 3>students to live, then foreign students won't be able to

0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:41.199
<v Speaker 3>come in.

0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.480
<v Speaker 1>This is the kind of analysis in journalism. The Australian

0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.559
<v Speaker 1>subscribers get twenty four to seven a subscription is a

0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.320
<v Speaker 1>lot cheaper than your energy bill and we promise it

0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:57.280
<v Speaker 1>won't push inflation up. Join us at the Australian dot

0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:11.400
<v Speaker 1>com dot au. We'll be back after this. Apart from

0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.959
<v Speaker 1>the cost of living, the biggest issue for most Australians

0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:17.560
<v Speaker 1>right now is violence against women. After a series of

0:11:17.640 --> 0:11:21.240
<v Speaker 1>horrific murders of women allegedly perpetrated by the men who

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.199
<v Speaker 1>were supposed to love and protect them. Governments at all

0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:28.040
<v Speaker 1>levels have scrambled to react with everything from bail law

0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:32.040
<v Speaker 1>reforms to new spending to tackle the problem of violent pornography.

0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:36.640
<v Speaker 8>So every year the budget includes something called the Women's Budget.

0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:41.000
<v Speaker 8>Now that is really the government's ambition for closing the

0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:43.480
<v Speaker 8>gender pay gap when it comes to women and achieving

0:11:43.520 --> 0:11:44.720
<v Speaker 8>equity most often.

0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 1>Sarah Eisen is a political reporter with The Australian.

0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:52.240
<v Speaker 8>This year, there's a really marked focus billions when it

0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:56.160
<v Speaker 8>comes to research, better resourcing for the Office of Women,

0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:00.840
<v Speaker 8>including more staff that will focus specifically on gen violence.

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:04.719
<v Speaker 8>There'll be more information sharing, There'll be mechanisms to look

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:09.359
<v Speaker 8>at which prevention measures actually work. There'll be advisory committees

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 8>with victim survivors on them. The government really wants to

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.760
<v Speaker 8>show that it's doing something when it comes to this problem.

0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 1>The government's already announced the extension of something that was

0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.840
<v Speaker 1>a trial where women who are in a desperate situation

0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.800
<v Speaker 1>can access five thousand dollars of emergency support. How much

0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:27.080
<v Speaker 1>is that going to cost.

0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.680
<v Speaker 8>It's going to cost nearly one billion dollars. It will

0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:35.199
<v Speaker 8>be indexed as well. That means as inflation goes up,

0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.800
<v Speaker 8>the payment will increase at the same pace, so women

0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:42.200
<v Speaker 8>will get up to five thousand dollars. That includes fifteen

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 8>hundred dollars in cash and the rest will be in

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:49.040
<v Speaker 8>services and support to be able to escape violence. This

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.880
<v Speaker 8>is a big part of making sure women can leave

0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 8>really dangerous situations, so asure, can.

0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.760
<v Speaker 5>I just check these Future Made in Australia a gender extent.

0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.079
<v Speaker 1>Before this budget lock up, we knew Future Made in

0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.560
<v Speaker 1>Australia was a big priority for the government, but we

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 1>didn't have a good idea of exactly what they'd be

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:13.079
<v Speaker 1>spending on. Now we know it's twenty two billion, including

0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.560
<v Speaker 1>something the critical minerals industry had been lobbying for, a

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.680
<v Speaker 1>seven billion dollar tax break for the companies that produce

0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:23.120
<v Speaker 1>rare earths like li lithium and nickel, which have been

0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:27.960
<v Speaker 1>struggling against a wave of minerals produced much cheaper overseas.

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.280
<v Speaker 1>There will also be new tax incentives for the production

0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>of green hydrogen. Joe Kelly is The Australian's National Affairs editor.

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>It'll involve giving tax breaks to billionaires to extremely wealthy

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:45.920
<v Speaker 1>companies in the resources sector. How do you think this

0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:47.920
<v Speaker 1>will go over with voters?

0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 5>I think it's an experiment. I think it's a labor

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:55.280
<v Speaker 5>experiment which expands the role of government and I think

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.360
<v Speaker 5>how it goes over is going to depend on how

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 5>successful it is. I think it will be a long

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 5>term test of Labour's economic credentials and this new vision

0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 5>Jim Charmers has of forging a new economy, and I

0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.240
<v Speaker 5>might also add I think there are political risks as well,

0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:17.600
<v Speaker 5>because this will require least two tranches of legislation. Jim

0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 5>said that today and the production tax credits will require

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 5>legislation too, so that will depend on how the Parliament

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:28.600
<v Speaker 5>lines up, including the Coalition and the Greens. The Coalition,

0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 5>I think had been a bit skeptical about this agenda

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 5>and if they opt out, if they're opposed to this

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 5>new economic vision, well then Labor will be left to

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.200
<v Speaker 5>negotiate with the Greens, and I think that that might

0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 5>be something that turns voters off.

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 1>The Australian's Troy Branston, who's our resident expert in the

0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.080
<v Speaker 1>Labor Party's history and philosophy, has spoken to the Treasurer

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 1>at length. Troy the Treasurer was wearing his Galaxy's Greatest

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Dad socks. Is he the Galaxy's greatest treasurer.

0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:05.240
<v Speaker 9>Well, I think old treasurers want to be the greatest. Look,

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 9>this is a big personal moment for the treasurer. The

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.440
<v Speaker 9>budget is the biggest event on the political calendar every

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 9>year when there's not an election, and he really is

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 9>driving the government's economic strategy. Bit I think also it's

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 9>political strategy. So he's very invested personally in this. He

0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 9>wants to make his mark, but he also wants to

0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.800
<v Speaker 9>see the government re elected because one day, as we

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.720
<v Speaker 9>all know, he wants to be Prime minister.

0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>The government has just a one seat majority and the

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.640
<v Speaker 1>government's dealt with a lot of challenges in this first term.

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Is there a chance that Jim Chalmers would take the

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to move on the leadership before the next election.

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:42.520
<v Speaker 9>Look, he can never say never in politics, but I

0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.880
<v Speaker 9>think it would be extremely unlikely. I think Labor has

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 9>learnt the lessons of its last period in office, and

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 9>also the coalition's period in office as well. I don't

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.640
<v Speaker 9>think there's any appetite to change the leader right now,

0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 9>but there's a number of people jockeying for it. But

0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 9>if you want to be a leadership contender, it's based

0:15:59.840 --> 0:16:03.200
<v Speaker 9>on your performance in your current role. So if the

0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 9>economy goes pear shaped and this does lead to an

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 9>increase in inflation and the Reserve Bank pulls that trigger

0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 9>and puts up interest rates again, and this will be

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 9>extremely damaging for Jim Chums. So there's a lot at

0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 9>stake for him personally, for the government, and I think

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:18.280
<v Speaker 9>for the nation as well.

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 1>He came into the job talking quite openly about not

0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.200
<v Speaker 1>wanting to just occupy the chair, wanting to be a

0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.040
<v Speaker 1>reforming treasurer. Has he turned out to be one?

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:28.760
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, Look, it's interesting. It's still a work in progress.

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.040
<v Speaker 9>But you know, in the opening of his budget speech

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 9>he said it's a budget about the here and now

0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 9>and also the decades to come. Now, that's a tricky

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 9>thing to get across. And he's come up with what

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 9>he told me was a new model for economic prosperity

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 9>and growth, which is about harnessing public and private investment

0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 9>in some of the new critical drivers of the economy

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.040
<v Speaker 9>and to take benefit of the transition to a net

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 9>zero world. Now. I do think though, that he missed

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:59.360
<v Speaker 9>an opportunity to really make his name as a treasurer

0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 9>by not sticking with budget surpluses. You know, he has

0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 9>delivered two budget surpluses now in a row. The last

0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:08.359
<v Speaker 9>treasure to do that was Pretty Costello and before him,

0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.679
<v Speaker 9>Paul Keating, so they're pretty rare, but he really had

0:17:11.720 --> 0:17:15.600
<v Speaker 9>an opportunity to stick with that fiscal discipline. Instead, he's

0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 9>forecasting one hundred billion dollars worth of deficits over the

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:24.000
<v Speaker 9>Ford estimate period and he's got increased spending. But really

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.080
<v Speaker 9>he could have made a political and economic virtue out

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.440
<v Speaker 9>of more fiscal restraint. That's what Paul Keating did, That's

0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.440
<v Speaker 9>what Peter Costello did, and he had such a good

0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.399
<v Speaker 9>opportunity because he had two budget surpluses. But now I

0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.000
<v Speaker 9>think he squandered that and so he's not able to

0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:41.840
<v Speaker 9>claim that mantle of fiscal responsibility and prudence, which he

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:42.560
<v Speaker 9>also wants.

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:54.880
<v Speaker 1>We'd love to know what you think of the budget

0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.880
<v Speaker 1>and have our experts answer your questions. On Wednesday night,

0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:03.359
<v Speaker 1>May fifteen, got a post budget online event with Judith Sloan,

0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.960
<v Speaker 1>Jeff Chambers, Sky News is Edward Boyd and Ross Greenwood

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.160
<v Speaker 1>and me talking about what it all means. It's brought

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:14.240
<v Speaker 1>to you by the Australian Plus. Visit the Australianplus dot

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:18.400
<v Speaker 1>com dot a u slash budget. For more information and

0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:19.480
<v Speaker 1>to register now,