1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,719 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: people of the Uran Nation. 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,559 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to the Real Story. I'm Joe Hildebrown 4 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:14,240 Speaker 2: and this week we've got it all peace in the 5 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: Middle East, war in the Liberal Party and what exactly 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 2: are these protesters thinking? Are they thinking at all? 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: All that? More coming up? 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 2: So first up this week, I want to talk about 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 2: was obviously the biggest news story in the country, and 10 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: that is the anniversary of the October seven attacks. It 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: was the second anniversary on Tuesday and the protests that 12 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: accompanied that, which is very strange and a bit different 13 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 2: to the pro Palestine protests that we've seen and going 14 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 2: to see on the weekend, where they chose October seven 15 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: to basically celebrate her Mass, praise the martyrs. There was 16 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: massive graffiti in Melbourne praising her mass. There was graffiti 17 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:14,760 Speaker 2: that said October seven, do it again. Disturbingly enough, and 18 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:16,919 Speaker 2: then you've got sort of separate to that, this. 19 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,760 Speaker 1: Move by the. 20 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 2: Palastini Action Group who want to hold another mass protest, 21 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 2: not on October seven, to their credit, but very shortly 22 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 2: after at the Opera House in a similar vein to 23 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 2: the protest that they had on the Harbor Bridge, but 24 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 2: also of course in a similar vein to the impromptu 25 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 2: protest that happened just after the actual October seven terror attack, 26 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:51,559 Speaker 2: where a whole group of people descended on the Opera House, 27 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 2: and that led to those kind of infamous scenes that 28 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 2: went right around the world and quite frankly made. 29 00:01:58,480 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: Australia look pretty bad. 30 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 2: And look, I've got a huge amount of sympathy for 31 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 2: the Palestinian cause. I am absolutely no friend of Benjamin Netanyahoo, 32 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 2: and I certainly wholly oppose Israel's move to occupy Gaza, 33 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 2: and it's moved to increase its settlements in the West Bank, 34 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 2: which is a completely different area to Gaza. Absolutely inexcusable, unforgivable, 35 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 2: and that was the genesis in many ways for Australia 36 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:33,279 Speaker 2: saying right, well, if you're going to effectively wipe Palestine 37 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 2: from the face of the map, we're going to recognize Palestine. 38 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: And again I have misgivings about that too, but I 39 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 2: reckon in the face of what net Yahoo was about 40 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: to do. 41 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: That was fair enough. 42 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 2: But now we're at a point where there is actually 43 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: a peace plan on the table and we'll be talking 44 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 2: to Cameron Stewart from The Australian later on just about 45 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 2: that peace plan and what its prospects for success are. 46 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: But it's fair to say that this has got a 47 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 2: better shot than anything since October seven, twenty twenty three, 48 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: of actually delivering peace and possibly even paving the way 49 00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: to Palestinian statehood, which is what these protesters say they want. Now, 50 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: this is a plan that has been endorsed and supported 51 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 2: by every Arab nation, pretty much the biggest Islamic nation 52 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 2: on the planet, which is our neighbor Indonesia. It's supported 53 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 2: by US as well. The Albanesi government immediately supported the 54 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 2: Trump peace Plan, and it is the first plan that 55 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 2: Israel has agreed to. Critically, it's also supported by Qatar, 56 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: which is the country that is literally hosting the leadership 57 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 2: of Harmas and as a result of that pressure, her 58 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 2: Maas or at least the leadership of Hermas, has also 59 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 2: supported this plan. So it's a twenty point plan put 60 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: together by Donald Trump. Parts of it look like they 61 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: were actually written by him. But it's a really good deal. 62 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: It's a really good deal for Palestine, including not just 63 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 2: the pathway to statehood, but all these economic opportunities for Gaza. 64 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: It even grants the release of all these political prisoners, 65 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 2: including terrorists serving life sentences in Israel, there's going to 66 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 2: be about fifteen of them released for every single Israeli 67 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 2: hostage alive or dead that's released. And har mass fighters, 68 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 2: terrorists who have been fighting on them, just whatever you 69 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 2: want to call them, the gorillas. If they lay down 70 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,239 Speaker 2: their weapons, they get amnesty, they even get free passage 71 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 2: to another country. So it's a little wonder that all 72 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 2: the Arab states, including the state that is actually hosting Hamas, 73 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 2: that has given shelter to her maas the leadership of 74 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 2: Hamma itself, and again, whether it can communicate that to 75 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 2: its proxies other extremist groups in Gaza, or indeed the 76 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,239 Speaker 2: people who are just fighting on the ground in Gaza, 77 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 2: who are increasingly disconnected from the leadership in Qatar. We 78 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 2: don't know if it's going to get through to them. 79 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 2: We don't even know if they can recover all the hostages, 80 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 2: for example, because they've actually outsourced the holding of these hostages, 81 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 2: as horrendous as that is to contemplate, to other terror groups. 82 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 2: So I'm really laying it on thick here, but this 83 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 2: is the point everyone has basically agreed to this plan, 84 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 2: including in principle the leadership of Hamas. That is what 85 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 2: they've said. They said, in principle, we agree to it. 86 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 2: I have to work out some of the details so 87 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 2: we have a real shot at peace here. So what 88 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 2: are the protests protesting against? Why are they still pressing 89 00:05:55,960 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 2: ahead with this? What are they actually calling for? They 90 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: are actually saying, you know, even after the Australian government 91 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 2: recognize Palestine, they said, oh, well, we weren't protesting against that. 92 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: We are protesting because we want sanctions against Israel. So 93 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 2: if everyone signs up to this twenty point plan, if 94 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: Israel Jamas agree to this plan, there's a cease. 95 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,919 Speaker 1: Fire, there's a withdrawal, there's. 96 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: An independent committee running Palestine, paving the way for elections 97 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 2: with the Palestinian Authority being reformed, and they're on board 98 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:39,080 Speaker 2: as well. Everyone's on board, everyone agrees. What are you 99 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 2: protesting against? Why are out there? Do you still saying, oh, 100 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 2: once all this happens, we still want sanctions. Forget about sanctions. 101 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 2: Donald Trump's talking about tariffs as in the lowest possible 102 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 2: tariff right or tariff e zeatives for Gaza. This guy 103 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: loves tariff's he reconds, he could fix anything with tariff, 104 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 2: and he's going to fix Gaza with tariffs. So that's 105 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 2: actually in the twenty point plan. He says that we're 106 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 2: going to make it going to create, you know, investment 107 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 2: incentives by having a tariff regime that encourages trade with 108 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 2: an investment in Gaza. You know, it's seriously, we're talking 109 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: Gaza Lago here. 110 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: It's going to be great. It's going to be great. 111 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 2: But again, as everybody has been saying, even people who 112 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: are massive Trump skeptics, this is actually the best shot 113 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 2: that we have got for peace. This is a plan 114 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:38,840 Speaker 2: so good, so attractive that Israel's agreed to it and 115 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: the leaders of her mass have agreed to it. And 116 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 2: yet the protests on the Opera house, they've got a 117 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: problem with it, Like what is what is your problem? 118 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: What are you. 119 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 2: Actually protesting against? And this is the thing it's not about. 120 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 2: This is what it proves time and time again. I 121 00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 2: say it time and time again because I'm like, you know, 122 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 2: a cracked record, and nobody listens to me. But these 123 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 2: protesters aren't about Palestine. These protesters aren't protesting for Palestine. 124 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 2: You could argue, maybe they're protesting against Israel. But it's 125 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: not going to make any difference to Israel either. It's 126 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 2: just about them. They are protesting for themselves. They are 127 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 2: protesting to say, hey, look at me, I'm a protest 128 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 2: this how much I care because I'm such a good person. 129 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 2: And that is the one thing that you have to 130 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 2: understand about displays such as this. If it was really 131 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,839 Speaker 2: about Palestine, why is it they only get the big 132 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 2: numbers when it's at the Harbor Bridge or the Opera House? 133 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 2: Why does they have to be at the Opera House 134 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 2: all these You know, if it's really about the movement 135 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 2: for Palestine and you've really got so many people who 136 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 2: really care so much, why aren't they coming out every 137 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 2: single Sunday? Why do they only rock up when they 138 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 2: got the big landmarks in the background, Because that's the 139 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 2: best photo op. That's when they've got to get on 140 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 2: the news. That's where they can take a photo of 141 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 2: themselves and put it on Instagram to say how much 142 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 2: they care. Otherwise you'd be out in Hyde Park every 143 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 2: single week if it was just about the numbers, or 144 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: is it just about you caring so much? The most 145 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 2: important thing, of course we can do here is make 146 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 2: sure that that division doesn't come to Australia. There's not 147 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 2: much even I, with all my massive international, transnational universal powers, 148 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 2: even I can't get peace in the Middle East. Take 149 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 2: someone like Donald Trump to do that. I am but 150 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 2: a speck in his mass intellectual cosmos. But what we 151 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: can do is make sure that extremism doesn't come here. 152 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 2: The implacable sides don't come here and don't slug it 153 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 2: out in Australia. And that is where the protesters actually 154 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 2: could do something by actually saying, you know what, there's 155 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 2: a shot at peace here. Maybe now is not the 156 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 2: time to be jumping up and down. Maybe it's time 157 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 2: to actually do as the PM said and actually just 158 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 2: stop barking at each other, stop calling for the annihilation 159 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 2: of the other side. Because of course, when people create 160 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 2: political frameworks justifications for hatred, then it gives real extremists 161 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:50,199 Speaker 2: the excuse, the chance, the cover to do those unspeakable 162 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 2: things that then lead to actual attacks on synagogues or 163 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 2: Jewish businesses or Jewish homes. That gives cover to extremist 164 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 2: grews like his Butteria, which held its protest on October seven, 165 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 2: couldn't even wait until the next day, on the day 166 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 2: that the actual worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust happened. 167 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 2: His Butteria, which is listed in the UK as a 168 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 2: terror group not here it's important to say, but has 169 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 2: said some pretty pretty extreme things. It gives them cover 170 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 2: to say, oh, you know, we need to go after 171 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 2: these guys because I have their genocidal and that makes 172 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,599 Speaker 2: everything okay. So if you accuse them of being genocidal, 173 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 2: then it's okay to go after them. And of course 174 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 2: who's genocidal the Israelis and who are the Israelis the Jews. 175 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 2: Same as when an academic said that Zionus should be 176 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 2: made to feel uncomfortable and another academic got up, and 177 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 2: this is in public's unbelievable. 178 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: This is at meetings. 179 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 2: Another academic got up and said, I agree with my 180 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 2: colleague that Jews should be made to feel uncomfortable. The 181 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: first academic says, no, no, I didn't say Jews. I said Zionus. Oh, sorry, 182 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:01,439 Speaker 2: my mistake, but that's what he understood to be because 183 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 2: that's what it's giving cover for. 184 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: You're giving cover for hate. 185 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 2: And it's exactly the same when people go on about 186 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 2: all Muslims being terrorists and having, you know, ridiculous stunts 187 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 2: like the ones that my beloved colleagues at Sky News 188 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 2: had to apologize for recently, where a guest hijacked a 189 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 2: segment and started just railing off stuff about Muslims being horrible. Now, 190 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 2: I can't repeat any of what he said, but we 191 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 2: all know what's out there. We all know because it's 192 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,400 Speaker 2: all over the Internet, because people like that get millions 193 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: and millions of views. And again, if you subscribed to 194 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: that view, if you line up even with some of 195 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 2: their extremist, ultra nationalist people who Benjamin Netanyahu relies on 196 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 2: to stay in power, people way to the right of 197 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: net and Yahoo. But people who he needs to stay 198 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 2: in the Prime ministership and therefore probably out of Jail's 199 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 2: got a lot writing on this. They're as bad as 200 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 2: the other side in a lot of ways. They're saying, no, 201 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 2: there can't be any Arabs in Israel, no Palestinians in Israel, 202 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 2: because otherwise the Messiah won't come, whereas of course all 203 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: us saying, people know that he came two thousand years ago, 204 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 2: look what happened to him. But again, whether you believe 205 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 2: that or whether you don't. The last thing we need 206 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 2: is to import those sort of things into Australia. And 207 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: if that protest at the Opera House goes ahead, either 208 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 2: legally with the blessing of the New South Wales Court 209 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 2: of Appeal or illegally quite unquote, with people rocking up 210 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 2: and just doing their thing, do we really think that 211 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 2: that is going to cause more cohesion in Australia, more 212 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 2: fellow feeling, more understanding between Muslims and Jews, or left 213 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 2: or right. 214 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 1: Of course not so. 215 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 2: If you're really interested in peace, and if you're pro 216 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 2: Palestine and you really want the world to be a 217 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 2: better place, the last thing you should be doing is 218 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 2: going to a protest when peace is on the verge 219 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 2: of actually breaking out in the Middle East. One place, however, 220 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 2: where peace is in no danger of breaking out, is 221 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 2: in the federal parliamentary Liberal Party room, because those guys 222 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 2: hate each other and they are going to tear each 223 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 2: other apart from now until the next election and probably 224 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 2: the one after that, because they'll still be in opposition. 225 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: And this is I guess in a way, it's kind 226 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 2: of like a more fascical kind of Timu version of 227 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 2: the Middle East debate, where you have people in the 228 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 2: party who are so obsessed with their own particular beliefs, 229 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: and it is actually a belief system. But the right 230 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 2: often talk about how climate change is a cult that 231 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: the left believes in, as though it was almost a 232 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 2: religious entity, as though it's kind of filling the space 233 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 2: that God used to fill. You know, instead of believing 234 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 2: in God, believing in the church, you believe in climate change. 235 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: And you measure your virtuousness as a person, you're piety 236 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,200 Speaker 2: by your devotion to action to address climate change. And 237 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: that's true for some people on the fringe, that's absolutely true, 238 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 2: but the right is equally obsessed with it as well. 239 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: This is the thing. 240 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 2: There is a large section on the right that simply 241 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 2: either a does not believe that climate change is actually happening, 242 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 2: or that it's just a sort of wobble, or that 243 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 2: you know, it's no worse than anything else that's happened, 244 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 2: or b that if it is happening, that human beings 245 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 2: have nothing to do with it and it's just volcanoes 246 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 2: and it's just natural and we have no influence over it, 247 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 2: or an influence so negligible that there's no point human 248 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 2: beings doing anything about it, or c that yeah, yes, 249 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: human beings are doing something about it, but Australia's influence 250 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 2: is so negligible that there's no point us doing anything 251 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: about it. And I guess there's probably some people in 252 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 2: Hobart who think, well, you know, Australia should do something 253 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 2: about it, but there's no point us doing something about 254 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 2: because we're such small part of Australia. And then you know, 255 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 2: if you go to if you go to Smithtown, they 256 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 2: probably think, yeah, Hobart should do something about what can we. 257 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: Do anyway whatever? 258 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 2: Right, but both sides are equally as crazy and fanatical 259 00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 2: as each other, and it is obviously that right side 260 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 2: which is in the Liberal Party and especially among the 261 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 2: Liberal Party base, which with all political parties, the base 262 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: is always more hardcore than the people who are actually 263 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 2: public facing. 264 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,479 Speaker 1: And that's because the people are public. 265 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 2: Facing actually have to get the support of the public, 266 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 2: they actually have to get elected, whereas the base only 267 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 2: has to, like, you know, look at their own Twitter 268 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 2: feed and decide what they think on that. So you 269 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:09,959 Speaker 2: have people who will not tolerate any action on climate change. Effectively, 270 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 2: people who won't even tolerate having a target of net 271 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 2: zero emissions, and they are prepared to tear the Liberal 272 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: Party apart on that basis. And now sometimes this will 273 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 2: come in other proxies, so it will come as a 274 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 2: proxy for a debate on immigration. 275 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: Or a debate on national security, borders or whatever. 276 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 2: But that's pretty much at the heart of it, a 277 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 2: sort of quasi religious belief that you are right about 278 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 2: climate change and everyone else is a heretic. It's like 279 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 2: the Reformation five hundred years ago, where people think the 280 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 2: future of their mortal soil souls depends on this, and 281 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 2: that is why they are prepared to destroy the party 282 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 2: they supposedly care about in service of this, because they're 283 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 2: talking about their mortal souls. They're talking about political convictions 284 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 2: that are as powerful as the religious convictions that drove 285 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 2: things like the Reformation. And so he got someone like 286 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 2: Andrew Hasty, who I really really like, top served his country, 287 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 2: really respect him that he's running a campaign about, for example, 288 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 2: you know, Australian manufacturing, which is really code for taking 289 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 2: all the money out of climate change initiatives and putting 290 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 2: it back into good old fashioned bricks and mortar Australian 291 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 2: production lines, you know, powered by good old fashioned coal, 292 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 2: that sort of stuff, and he's quit the front bench, 293 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 2: second front bencher to go in as many months, and 294 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,280 Speaker 2: that of course has completely destabilized Susan Lee's leadership, which 295 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 2: was never actually particularly stable. 296 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 1: To start with. 297 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,959 Speaker 2: She doesn't even I think, have a majority of support 298 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 2: in the party room now, but no one actually has 299 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 2: called a vote because no one actually wants the opposition 300 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 2: leader's role because it is so imperiled. And now he's withdrawn, 301 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: which is in itself a destabilizing act. Think of it 302 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 2: like you know those games like Jenger, where you're pulling 303 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 2: blocks out until the whole apparatus just eventually crumbles into 304 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,160 Speaker 2: the rubble. And they're prepared to do that, and he's 305 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 2: got people cheering him on because they think that this 306 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 2: is an existential fight. And as long as that keeps happening, 307 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 2: the Liberal Party will be absolutely rebelized. As long as 308 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: people who believe in that stuff can't just shut up 309 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 2: about it for the sake of unity until the next 310 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 2: election or the one after that, and have these debates 311 00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 2: inside the tent and respectfully and not flaring up and 312 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 2: just causing disruptions, then the Liberal Party will be out 313 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 2: of power for a generation. I mean, when the labor 314 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,959 Speaker 2: parties split in the fifties and sixties. That is exactly 315 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:56,479 Speaker 2: what happened, literally a generation twenty plus years out of power, 316 00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 2: and that is. 317 00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: What the Liberal Party is headed towards. 318 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 2: And if it can't move in any direction without the 319 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 2: other side tearing it apart and clawing it back, then 320 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 2: it's not going to be able to move in any 321 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 2: direction at all, and it will not be able to 322 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 2: occupy the center, which is where it has to be 323 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: if it's going to win an election in Australia, and 324 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 2: that simply means it will not win. And as long 325 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 2: as this keeps going on, it will not win. And 326 00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 2: if this keeps going on forever, it will not win forever. 327 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 2: And you can put that in the bank. Reminds me 328 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 2: of a certain debate about Israel and Palstein now that 329 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 2: I think about it. So is peace in the Middle 330 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 2: East actually happening? Could this be something that could work? 331 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:46,160 Speaker 2: Is this viable? Because all the signs seem to be 332 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: pretty positive, which of course makes a lot of people 333 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,919 Speaker 2: very suspicious. One man who has been right across this 334 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 2: and is our resident Middle East policy guru, is the 335 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 2: chief international correspondent for the Australian newspaper, someone who has 336 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: provided an incredibly sharp analysis on this issue, who has 337 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 2: served over there, has seen what's going on in the 338 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,640 Speaker 2: ground firsthand, and he joins us again. Now, Cameron Stewart, 339 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 2: welcome back to the real story. 340 00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: How are you good, Joe? How are you? Yeah? Fantastic mate. 341 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 2: Look, I've been loving your analysis on the Trump peace 342 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 2: Plan this week, which is appropriately skeptical, but again there 343 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 2: is a there's a stubborn streak of optimism about it, 344 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 2: isn't it. I mean, it's certainly the best hope we've 345 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 2: got so far. Can you just talk us through what 346 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 2: the promises are in this twenty point plan and then 347 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 2: maybe we'll talk about some of the pitfalls. 348 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 3: Okay, that problem The twenty point plan, which the US 349 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 3: is backed in fat Tony Blare to form a British 350 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 3: Prime minister, is a key places. It's interesting because it 351 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 3: sort of pleases nobody, which is good in a strange way. 352 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 3: What I mean by that is it's knocked off the extremes, 353 00:21:57,080 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 3: if you like. It doesn't necessarily please Harmas, doesn't necessarily 354 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 3: please the Israeli government, and it's been pushed by Trump. 355 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 3: So what it does is it sort of rules out 356 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 3: a lot of the sillier concepts that we've seen from 357 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:13,399 Speaker 3: both sides, which has been in the Rgi Barji for months, 358 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 3: and that's the right wing of the Israeli government, for example, 359 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 3: saying that you know, they want to expel all Ghazans 360 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 3: and annexed Gaza. That was never going to do work, 361 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 3: of course, and of course Hamasa's ridiculous concept that you 362 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 3: want to have a Palestinian state in place. You know 363 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 3: all the Israelis are going to go and never come back. 364 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 3: So it kind of steers a very dangerous middle path 365 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: if you like, through all of that by getting rid 366 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 3: of some of the silly proposals and concentrating on the 367 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 3: ones that are doable. And of course that doesn't mean 368 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 3: they will be doable, because this is the Middle East, 369 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 3: after all, everything not working. But this is I really think, Joe, 370 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 3: the closest we have got to a genuinely sensible and 371 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 3: realistic plan. And even if it falls over in the 372 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,120 Speaker 3: next couple of days, to some degree, you can mark 373 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: my words, it'll come back in some form as the 374 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 3: basis of a fundamental final piece plan. 375 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 2: And that is what makes it so extraordinary, not least 376 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 2: its providence because you had a lot of Trump skeptics saying, oh, 377 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: as if this guy's going to actually deliver what you know, 378 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 2: all these you know much smarter, you know, foreign policy 379 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: wonks have been unable to deliver for generations. But I 380 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,119 Speaker 2: think that's actually part of its strength. Even the wording 381 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 2: of it, even the way that it's phrased. You know, 382 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 2: zero point two says, you know, the guards and people 383 00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 2: you know have suffered more than enough. I mean, that 384 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 2: is not something you would see ever in a dry 385 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: diplomatic document, but it is something that you know, I 386 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 2: suppose it has the flavor of Trump's, like you say, 387 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 2: getting rid of a all these extremes that neither side 388 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 2: is ever going to be able to agree on, and 389 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 2: at the same time bringing an element of sort of 390 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 2: urgency and kind of earthiness to the to the conflict. 391 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 2: And it seems to be working so far. It's got 392 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,400 Speaker 2: the backing of all all Arab states, including Qatar, who 393 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: Trump made net Yahoo apologize too, which is an extraordinary 394 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,399 Speaker 2: feat in and of itself. It's the first one that 395 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 2: Israel has agreed to, and even the leadership of Hamas 396 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 2: has said that it agrees in principle to this plan. 397 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 2: But there's a catch, isn't there. And you've outlined this 398 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 2: is the leadership of Hamas still actually in control of 399 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 2: Hamas well. 400 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 3: That's right. We have the political winger for mass based 401 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 3: in Qatar and the military wing based inside Gaza, and 402 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 3: they're not talking very well. Communication is obviously very very ropey, 403 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 3: and you know, we have reports of a split where 404 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 3: the milicent wing in Gaza doesn't really like this peace deal. 405 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 3: The political wing in Qatar does like the peace deal. 406 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 3: But the brilliant genius of this piece Steel Joe, is 407 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 3: that it gives a lot of the Palestinian people. And 408 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 3: in that way it is snookerd Hamas because if you're 409 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 3: not in Gaza at this minute, think of what this 410 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 3: deal gives you. It gives you immediate end to the hostilities, 411 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 3: no more bombs. It opens up the aid, A flood 412 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 3: of aid comes in, sobs humanitarian crisis. A technocratic new 413 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 3: government takes over in Ghas, at least temporarily. That he's 414 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 3: not Israel and he's not Humus. Now you know what Temmy, 415 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 3: which guards and family, is going to say na to 416 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,680 Speaker 3: that beyond the most hard line ideologues, and this is 417 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 3: where it snookers Humus, because Humus pretends to care for 418 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 3: the Palestinian people. In fact, with it's October seven attack 419 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 3: on Israel in twenty thirty three, did the most disastrous 420 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 3: thing to its own people, and deliberately, so you know, 421 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 3: so here we go. Hamas is snookered by this plan, 422 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 3: and that's what makes it so good. 423 00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 2: And the other part of the plan, and again, on 424 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 2: top of everything you said, it also delivers massive investment 425 00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 2: incentives Trump. It's even got tariffs in there, because Trump 426 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 2: just loves his tariffs. It says we're going to give 427 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,919 Speaker 2: him a beneficial tariff regime which will encourage investment. And 428 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,840 Speaker 2: also even if the Hamas militants on the ground hold 429 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,479 Speaker 2: out in the areas they control, the areas controlled by 430 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 2: the IDF would still be handed over to this new 431 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,359 Speaker 2: I think they call it International Stabilization Force, so that 432 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 2: goes from the IDF to the ISF. And so they 433 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 2: would then embark on that twenty point plan themselves independently. 434 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 2: So you'd effectively have an incredibly isolated and impoverished pocket 435 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 2: of Gaza sort of looking over the fence at this prosperous, peaceful, developing, 436 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 2: well fed Gaza. 437 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 3: That's right, and also you can imagine that the Israelis 438 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 3: will continue to hunt Hamas in those areas that have 439 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 3: not been surrendered. And of course they've got the sweetener. 440 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 3: Israelis has agreed to the sweetener in this that those 441 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 3: Hamas operatives who who throw down their weapons, now they 442 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 3: will get amnesty. They have passage outside of Gaza, you know. 443 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,439 Speaker 3: I mean there is a lifeline they're giving to some 444 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 3: Hamas fighters which might make them think twice about being 445 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 3: a Marsa for the cause. So that's a clever part 446 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 3: of the plan too. Now there's no guarantee Hamas. Of 447 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:03,959 Speaker 3: course we'll take this. Kamasa said it will give up 448 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 3: political control of the of Gaza. That's a very big 449 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,520 Speaker 3: step forward. It has not yet said it will disarm, 450 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 3: and of course that's one of the demands of Israel 451 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 3: and the US. And the big question here is a 452 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 3: willy will they agree to some and be if they do, Joe, 453 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 3: what does that look like? I mean, how do you 454 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 3: get all of these young men to suddenly what surrender 455 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 3: their AK forty sevens an easy concept? 456 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly right. 457 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: You see, even with conventional armies that there are huge 458 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 2: ructions when they return home from a war, finding employment 459 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,399 Speaker 2: for people, making sure they're not just you know, on 460 00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 2: the streets traumatized board you know. I mean, it's a 461 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 2: problem everywhere. The other problem, and well, the other incentive 462 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 2: should I should say, is there's going to be a 463 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 2: huge amount and not much as talked about here, probably 464 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,199 Speaker 2: because it is quite unpalatable to the Israelis and you 465 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 2: don't want to sort of get them offside, but they 466 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,600 Speaker 2: will have to return a huge amount, almost two thousand 467 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 2: all up prisoners that they've got, including prisoners that they 468 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 2: took during and in the immediate aftermath of the October 469 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 2: seven attacks. So basically terrorists who committed some of these 470 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 2: atrocities would be exchanged for just and we don't know 471 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 2: exactly how many, but forty plus hostages. Only twenty or 472 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 2: so are believed to be alive. So there's that swap, 473 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,600 Speaker 2: which just on the numbers is very beneficial to the 474 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 2: Palestinians or Hamas, however you want to characterize it. But 475 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 2: there is another problem, which again you've written about in 476 00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 2: the actual nuts and bolts of returning the hostages, which 477 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 2: is arguably the one thing that has to happen before 478 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 2: anything else can proceed, which is that Hamas does not 479 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 2: or might not even have all the hostages because it's 480 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:52,480 Speaker 2: actually outsourced some of the hostages, dead or alive, to 481 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:53,719 Speaker 2: other extremist groups. 482 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 3: That's right, there's a couple of extremist groups who had 483 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 3: the hostages. Also, I think with the bodies of the hostages, 484 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 3: the tragic maybe twenty eight or so bodies of those 485 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 3: forty eight hostages they're going to release, they have been 486 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 3: buried under rubble, some of them. Very difficult to gather 487 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 3: all of these hostages alive and dead in their so 488 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 3: called seventy two hours, which of course jo is the 489 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,840 Speaker 3: actual time frame in which they're supposed to live in 490 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 3: them once they have. 491 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 1: Which is long sits past. 492 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what they can get, seventy two more hours 493 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 3: from the time they agree now, But of course that's 494 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 3: I just don't think that's going to be possible. But 495 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,479 Speaker 3: this is I mean, while the Palestinians Uahamas sorry, has 496 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 3: a really good deal by getting so many of its 497 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 3: own prisons out as part of this exchange, Israel is 498 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 3: willing to do this because, I mean, this is just 499 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 3: burning it itsself to have these hostages still there, and 500 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 3: they are so close. Now, they are so close, and 501 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 3: it really puts pressure on that Yahoo to behave in 502 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 3: a fairly sober manner in this next sort of three 503 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 3: days or so. And I think Trump, to his credit, 504 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 3: is actually putting the fire to both Hamas and the 505 00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 3: Nyahoo to try and make sure that no one makes 506 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,720 Speaker 3: a silly move, because this is such a fragile moment. 507 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, and a great turn of phrase you 508 00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,440 Speaker 2: used to describe it. You said, there are innumerable trip 509 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 2: wires that could be triggered as this proceeds. Is the 510 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 2: return of the hostages the biggest and most obvious trip wire, 511 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 2: And if Hamas is just physically unable to produce all 512 00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 2: forty eight, how big a threat is that to the 513 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 2: rest of the plan proceeding. 514 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 3: I think if Hamas is seen to be genuinely trying 515 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 3: to find the hostages and get them out, I think 516 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 3: they will be given some grace time. 517 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 1: But this is the biggest trip wire. 518 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 3: I think it's actually the most likely part of the 519 00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 3: plan is that we have some release of the release 520 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 3: of some of the hostages. I think the real trip 521 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,920 Speaker 3: wire comes Joe a bit later on, when we have 522 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 3: disagreements over exactly what entity controls, guards, Adamas play a part, disarmament, 523 00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 3: et cetera, et cetera. I think that there is a chance, 524 00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:01,240 Speaker 3: a genuine chance, that we will get the hostages out 525 00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 3: in the next week or so, which would be an 526 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 3: extraordinary situation and of course a big moth for Hamastu 527 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 3: because they do lose some leverage over Israel once those 528 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 3: hostages are actually released. 529 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 2: And finally, one of the most i suppose elegant but 530 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,880 Speaker 2: problematic parts of the agreement is that it outlines the 531 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 2: potential of a pathway to Palestinian self determination and statehood, 532 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 2: which it acknowledges is the will of the Palestinian people, 533 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 2: without actually saying that this is what is going to happen, 534 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 2: or this is the aim of the plan, or this 535 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 2: is the final destination. And already we've had Benjamin Etnier 536 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 2: who say to his own compatriots in Hebrew that there's 537 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 2: no way that will ever happen. So presumably that is 538 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 2: going to be a roadblock at some point. But how 539 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 2: far along do you think that will actually advance eventual 540 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:03,120 Speaker 2: Palestinian statehood? And do you think there's any way that 541 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 2: net Yahoo either in his current kind of fixed where 542 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 2: he relies on the votes in the Parliament of ulternationalists 543 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,840 Speaker 2: to keep his Prime ministership and therefore probably keep himself 544 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 2: out of prison, either in that scenario or in another 545 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 2: scenario where he enters another coalition agreement with more centrist. 546 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: Parties or leftist parties. 547 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 2: Is there anyway is that going to be an inevitable 548 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 2: impass when it comes to that, or are we just 549 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:31,080 Speaker 2: looking too far ahead to even know? 550 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 1: Well? 551 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,880 Speaker 3: It certainly is far ahead. That's certainly one of the 552 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 3: last stages of the situation, the resolution of this peace plan. 553 00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 3: But it's really cleverly done here as well too, because 554 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,680 Speaker 3: what it says is that if the Palestinian Authority that's 555 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 3: the corrupt body that runs the West Bank, if that 556 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 3: can reform as it has promised, then we are going 557 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 3: to look at Palestinian statehood because that is something that 558 00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 3: Palestinians deserve. So that's really what this peace plan says, 559 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 3: but it does kick it down the row. And the 560 00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 3: clever thing about that is because both sides are completely 561 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 3: extreme on this, like the right wing of Netanna, who's 562 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:10,240 Speaker 3: government does not want Palestinian statehood at all. Netanya, who 563 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 3: doesn't want it the air of states, and of course 564 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 3: I must want it immediately. So this is quite a 565 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,840 Speaker 3: clever way to say it exists as a concept, is 566 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 3: just not going to happen now. I think it's one 567 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 3: of those classic classes, as I said before, when no 568 00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,360 Speaker 3: one's happy. But in fact it's the best way to 569 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 3: go forward. I believe actually that there's no way that 570 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 3: Palestini your statehood would ever be created under any form 571 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 3: under Benjamin Netna, who I think is now this colours 572 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,959 Speaker 3: to the mask. But there will be a subsequent government 573 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 3: after Netanya who that will be the government that tackles 574 00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 3: this issue. 575 00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 2: It's almost like a kind of to put it in 576 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 2: another way, ironically, given what I'm about to say, But 577 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 2: you could say it pleases nobody. But it's almost like 578 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 2: a rawsch Act test where each side can see in 579 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 2: it what it wants to see. So the classic thing 580 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 2: where you're showing a silhouette, is it a drinking goblet 581 00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 2: or is it two faces? So again say that it 582 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,760 Speaker 2: sort of pleases nobody. I could offer the glass half 583 00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,480 Speaker 2: full a version, which is that there's something in it 584 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 2: for everyone. 585 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 3: But that's exactly the way Donald Trump said, that's exactly right. 586 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 2: I'm getting more trumpy and every day. 587 00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:16,840 Speaker 3: Exactly because he's just said, let's just take the positives. 588 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 3: I must said yes. He didn't mention the fact that 589 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 3: said no. 590 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:24,520 Speaker 2: I didn't mention that yes, but exactly, Camera Stewart. Always 591 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 2: an absolute pleasure to talk to you. Thanks so much 592 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 2: for joining us. Thanks Ja, And that is all we 593 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 2: have time for this week. In fact, that is all 594 00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 2: we have time for, full stop. It is my humble 595 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 2: and solemn and joyous duty to say goodbye from all 596 00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:46,880 Speaker 2: of us here the real story, which is me, my beloved, 597 00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 2: Ricardo and Dano and nowadays. It's been an absolute pleasure 598 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,680 Speaker 2: being with you. This has gone on for way, way, 599 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,560 Speaker 2: way longer than I expected, given it's basically just me 600 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,000 Speaker 2: telling other people what to think for an hour. I 601 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,640 Speaker 2: hope you're all much smarter, much better informed, that you 602 00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:10,680 Speaker 2: realize that there is a possibility to coexist with people 603 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,399 Speaker 2: you might not necessarily agree with. 604 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 1: And there's a lot of things going below the surface in. 605 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,960 Speaker 2: The news stories you see and in politics that a 606 00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 2: lot of people don't realize. It's mostly, thank god, people 607 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 2: trying to do the right thing. Believe it or not, 608 00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 2: there is no grand conspiracy theory. We've delivered peace in 609 00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 2: the Middle East, so I don't know how we can 610 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 2: really improve on that. And I'll be still with you 611 00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 2: with Tim Blackwell every week for the Record, so we're 612 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,239 Speaker 2: sort of pivoting into me and someone else, which, to 613 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 2: be honest, is what I always wanted to do. 614 00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 1: I've been begging. I said, look, please, could I just 615 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 1: have someone to talk to? And now I've got it 616 00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 1: with my very great mate Timmy. 617 00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,640 Speaker 2: So we're going to be doing for the Record each 618 00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,919 Speaker 2: week from now on, plus a whole bunch of other 619 00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,120 Speaker 2: really exciting stuff coming up. So check out for the Record, 620 00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:01,759 Speaker 2: the links in the show notes. I'll put it on 621 00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 2: all my socials and everything, so that's where I'll be. 622 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 1: What more could you want in a podcast? This thing's 623 00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 1: going to be great.