WEBVTT - Russia can be beaten

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had devastating consequences. Tens of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of people have been killed and millions of people

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<v Speaker 1>have been displaced. Entire communities, towns, and cities have been flattened,

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<v Speaker 1>and Russia now occupies significant sways of Ukrainian land. Nowifi's

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<v Speaker 1>recent Middle East peace steal, Trump is saying Russia's next.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that President Putin wants to end the war,

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<v Speaker 2>or it wouldn't be talking this way. I spoke to

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<v Speaker 2>him yesterday for two and a half hours. We went

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<v Speaker 2>through a lot of details. He wants to get it ended.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that President Zelensky wants to get it ended.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we have to get it done. So what would

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<v Speaker 1>it take to end the war? I'm Daniel James, and

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<v Speaker 1>you're listening to seven am today. Associate professor of Political

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<v Speaker 1>science and International Affairs at George Washington University David Saconi

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<v Speaker 1>on the office Putin is making Trump and what they'll

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<v Speaker 1>mean for the people of Ukraine. It's cheese day, ok,

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<v Speaker 1>Tiober twenty one. David, thanks for speaking with me. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with one of me. Zelensky's meeting with Trump last week.

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<v Speaker 1>What was Lensky's position going into this mating and what

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<v Speaker 1>did he hope to get out of it.

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<v Speaker 3>I think Zelensky came to Washington with two main goals

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<v Speaker 3>in mind. First, he wanted the United States to provide

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<v Speaker 3>Tomahawk long range missiles and placed even greater pressure on

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<v Speaker 3>Vladimir Putin and forced them to the peace table. Secondly,

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<v Speaker 3>I think he was hoping to secure firm US security

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<v Speaker 3>guarantees to ensure that if they could reach a peace

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<v Speaker 3>dale in the future, Russia would actually be bound to

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<v Speaker 3>its terms and not.

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<v Speaker 1>Defect shall only by speak at it.

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<v Speaker 3>The mood in Kiev seemed quite optimistic I head of

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<v Speaker 3>Zelensky's trip to Washington. In fact, just before his plane

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<v Speaker 3>took off, the speaker of Ukraine's parliament, it was LANs

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<v Speaker 3>stefan Chuk, told the BBC that this was a very

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<v Speaker 3>important historical moment, and he said the meeting would make

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<v Speaker 3>clear that the world would see that Putin was not

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<v Speaker 3>trustworthy and that decisive action, specifically the delivery of these

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<v Speaker 3>Tomahawk missiles would be needed to end the war. Enforced

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<v Speaker 3>Russia to the negotiating table.

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<v Speaker 4>We will not seize our struggle, for that would mean

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<v Speaker 4>the end of our existence. We will not give up

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<v Speaker 4>a single inch of land occupied by the enemy for

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<v Speaker 4>our judo.

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<v Speaker 3>There was a real sense of hope that not only

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<v Speaker 3>would Trump agree to the tomahawk request, but this stronger

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<v Speaker 3>US backing for Ukraine's position would continue to develop, and

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<v Speaker 3>that more and more military and economic support would be

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<v Speaker 3>delivered from the West.

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<v Speaker 1>Why do you think the Ukrainians were feeling confident that

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<v Speaker 1>I would get the tomahawks.

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<v Speaker 3>It's been fascinating to watch US Ukrainan relations evolve since

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<v Speaker 3>that fateful February meeting back in the Oval Office, and

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<v Speaker 3>really surprising about how vocal Trump has been in his

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<v Speaker 3>support for Ukraine's interest over the last couple of months.

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<v Speaker 5>Do they want to have tomahawks going in that direction?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think so.

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<v Speaker 5>I think I might speak to Russia about that.

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<v Speaker 3>Nor have he declared that Ukraine would receive the tomahawks

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<v Speaker 3>if Putin wouldn't agree to return to peace talks.

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<v Speaker 4>Are you saying that you will speak to Putin first

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<v Speaker 4>about it?

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<v Speaker 5>I might say, Look, if this war's not going to

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<v Speaker 5>get settled, I'm going to send him tomahawks. I may

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<v Speaker 5>say that tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon,

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<v Speaker 5>and honestly, Russia does not need that.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't need that.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and this is a potentially game changing missile system.

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<v Speaker 3>So the fact that the United States was even discussing

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<v Speaker 3>providing with Ukraine signaled that this was an important step

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<v Speaker 3>forward in progressing and developing US military support for Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 3>Tomahawks would allow Ukraine to not just tip the war

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<v Speaker 3>in their favor, but target all sorts of critical military

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<v Speaker 3>sites across Russia, from aviation bases to the factories producing

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<v Speaker 3>the thousands of drones being sent into Ukraine and causing

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<v Speaker 3>so much damage. And the Kublin really understood the nature

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<v Speaker 3>of this system and how threatening would be for its

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<v Speaker 3>own ability to wage war.

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<v Speaker 1>Walls and Winsky was on his white to the US though.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin cole Trump and talked to him one of the

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<v Speaker 1>fine for two and a half hours. So what's not

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<v Speaker 1>about that?

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<v Speaker 3>Cool? Well, unfortunately we never get a full readout, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think there are still reports emerging about what was said.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump always portrays these calls with Putin as positive and productive,

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<v Speaker 3>but the specifics are just very unclear. We do know

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<v Speaker 3>that Putin is demanding Ukraine's surrendered territory, that Russia does

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<v Speaker 3>not control in the Dundassen parts of Donetsk region. So

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<v Speaker 3>Russia wants Zelensky to concede land that right now the

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<v Speaker 3>Ukrainians have under their purview, and what he's offering in

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<v Speaker 3>exchange is unattractive to Ukrainian's different parts of land that

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<v Speaker 3>Russia controls that are destroyed and just not a real

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<v Speaker 3>quid pro quo. But we also know that Putin warned

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<v Speaker 3>that it's the United States or its allies provided long

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<v Speaker 3>range missiles such as the Tomwawks Ukraine, that US Russian

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<v Speaker 3>relations would be harmed and that peace would not be

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<v Speaker 3>on the table. So the fact that Putin is bringing

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<v Speaker 3>this up in the call means that the missiles are

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<v Speaker 3>sitting in the front of his mind and he's concerned

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<v Speaker 3>that the United States and Ukraine would go down that path,

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<v Speaker 3>and his linking of the missile supply to this greater

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<v Speaker 3>security arrangement the future of US relations means that the

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<v Speaker 3>missiles are like a key bargaining chip. There were also

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<v Speaker 3>some trade opportunities that were brought up, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>of course they Putin and Trump agreed to meet again

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<v Speaker 3>face to face, this time in Budapest. So that was

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<v Speaker 3>one outcome of the call, but those are the kind

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<v Speaker 3>of broad contours of what I imagine was a really

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<v Speaker 3>unwieldy conversation for chu Hi hours.

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukrainian says. We said David had high hopes going

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<v Speaker 1>into the meeting with Trump. Ultimately, though, what came out

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<v Speaker 1>of it from a Ukrainian perspective.

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<v Speaker 3>Very little in terms of concrete commitments. That leaves Ukraine

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<v Speaker 3>with much less leverage and a forthcoming peace talks. And

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<v Speaker 3>it seems like Trump is moving towards this transactional approach

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<v Speaker 3>to the Russian Ukraine conflict. He really wants to work

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<v Speaker 3>out a deal. I think he really cares about the

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<v Speaker 3>cameras catching him bringing peace to the world. He seems

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<v Speaker 3>to be obsessed with ending wars as a way of

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<v Speaker 3>winning respect from the international community for his unconventional foreign

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<v Speaker 3>policy approach. And as we all know, he cares deeply

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<v Speaker 3>about winning some future Nobel Peace prize and doesn't really

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<v Speaker 3>care how it gets done, who wins and who loses,

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<v Speaker 3>as long as fighting quote unquote stops. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>that optimism faded away, and now that there's even more

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<v Speaker 3>skepticism that we're going to redo a lot of the

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<v Speaker 3>same type of courtship that might not lead to any

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<v Speaker 3>fruition or any real new military support.

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<v Speaker 1>And while these conversations and meetings were taking place, the

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<v Speaker 1>wall continued what's been happening on the ground, while the

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<v Speaker 1>leaders continued the negotiations.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think the big development of the last couple

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<v Speaker 3>months is that both sides are targeting each other's critical infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 3>specifically in the energy sector. So Ukraine has had a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of success targeting refineries, especially those that are used

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<v Speaker 3>to create gasoline for domestic consumption, and that's put a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of pressure on supply for cars and basic transportation

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<v Speaker 3>within Russia. It's a very visible sign of the conflict

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<v Speaker 3>coming home for the average Russian citizen. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 3>Russia has been targeting many similar assets within Ukraine, especially

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<v Speaker 3>in electricity production and gas storage. Winter is coming in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 3>and Russia wants Ukrainians to feel the pain of cold

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<v Speaker 3>winter with intermittent supplies and blackouts. So it's not just

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<v Speaker 3>the front lines that are hot right now. There are

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<v Speaker 3>other types of targeting and destruction going on to kind

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<v Speaker 3>of bring the war home, both in Ukraine and Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that maybe pushing both sides towards working

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<v Speaker 3>towards the peace agreement because they realize that their citizens

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<v Speaker 3>are desperate for a change, and desperate did not continue

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<v Speaker 3>the war. More and more it seems that both sides

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<v Speaker 3>are open to a ceasefire rather than fighting out the

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<v Speaker 3>comfort to the end.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, the business deals being dangled by the Kremlin, David,

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned Trump Imputin discussed trade opportunities during their marathon

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<v Speaker 1>phone call. We know that's the way Trump operates through

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<v Speaker 1>making deals. So what's known about what Russia is offering

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<v Speaker 1>the US what it wants in return.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, it's toyed with a number of different entreats to

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration. Some are more military, such as extending

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<v Speaker 3>the New Start Treaty and doing some nuclear non polluiferation

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<v Speaker 3>and arms control, which Trump administration seems really keen on achieving.

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<v Speaker 3>And then there's this other business element to it, which

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<v Speaker 3>is Russia has floated giving US companies access to rare

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<v Speaker 3>earth and other mineral resources. And it also has toyed

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<v Speaker 3>with the idea of joint gas, oil and gas projects

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<v Speaker 3>in the Arctic, even trilaterally between Russia and China and

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<v Speaker 3>the United States. So the idea of making money by

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<v Speaker 3>going into business together has been proposed to Trump as

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<v Speaker 3>another carrot in terms of what a grand bargain could entail.

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<v Speaker 3>And then there's a frankly ridiculous proposition of building an

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<v Speaker 3>undersea or rail tunnel linking Russia and the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>Alaska and Siberia. I think Elon Musk's boring company was

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<v Speaker 3>even floated as one of the potential contractors to carry

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<v Speaker 3>out this mega project. The economic value of something like

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<v Speaker 3>this is just impossible to really fathom. I mean, these

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<v Speaker 3>are not in either country the most dynamic or innovative

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<v Speaker 3>or even trade linked regions, So why we would need

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<v Speaker 3>to invest billions of dollars beyond some kind of like

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<v Speaker 3>symbolic partnership or an opportunity for graft on both sides,

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<v Speaker 3>it's these economic opportunities are really designed to sweeten Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>appetite for peace rather than actually build long lasting cooperation

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<v Speaker 3>between the two countries.

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<v Speaker 1>And side, what should we expect from the upcoming meaning

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<v Speaker 1>between Trump and Putin and Hungry?

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<v Speaker 3>Honestly very little. Last time I was on your show,

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<v Speaker 3>I predicted that the trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin, and

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<v Speaker 3>Lensky would never happen, And I think my prediction was

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<v Speaker 3>born out. They have yet to meet in person, So

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<v Speaker 3>given what happened in August in Alaska and the back

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<v Speaker 3>and forth between Trump and Putin, I think Trump's team

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<v Speaker 3>is going to be just as unprepared and get it

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<v Speaker 3>walked over by Putin and his staff. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to be again a big photo app and

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of blustering and a lot of optimism on

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<v Speaker 3>Trump's part. But I'm doubtful that we're going to see

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<v Speaker 3>any kind of concrete agreement or back and forth between

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<v Speaker 3>Putin and Trump that would get us closer to ending

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<v Speaker 3>this war.

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<v Speaker 1>So, Diavid, what do you think it would take to

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<v Speaker 1>win this war?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the Tomahawks would be a first step. I

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<v Speaker 3>think they would really put pressure on the Russian side

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<v Speaker 3>and allow Ukraine to target some of the most destructive assets,

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<v Speaker 3>the drone factories and some of the airplanes and aviation bases.

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<v Speaker 3>I think would really help shield Ukrainian's domestic production and

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<v Speaker 3>allow it to focus on areas where it could reclaim

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<v Speaker 3>land from the Russian forces. I also think a stronger

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<v Speaker 3>US and European commitment and financially and militarily across the board,

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<v Speaker 3>whether it be intelligence or artillery shells or tanks. Russia

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<v Speaker 3>can be beaten, but it requires the worst to step

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<v Speaker 3>up even more than it already has, and a just

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<v Speaker 3>unclear whether or not the chumplemanstradition is willing to go

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<v Speaker 3>that far.

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<v Speaker 1>David, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Also with the news, British police are investigating claims that

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<v Speaker 1>Prince Andrew asked an officer to try and find negative

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<v Speaker 1>information about a woman who accused him of sexual assault.

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<v Speaker 1>The British paper The Mail Online reported that Prince Andrew

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<v Speaker 1>gave a police officer Virginia Guphra's date of birth and

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<v Speaker 1>social security number and asked him to dig up dirt

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<v Speaker 1>on her with a view to smearing her name. The

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<v Speaker 1>reporting comes after Prince Andrew gave up his royal duties

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<v Speaker 1>late last week following further revelations about his connections with

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<v Speaker 1>sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the Victorian Premier has blamed

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<v Speaker 1>a very small number of counterprotesters for violence in the

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<v Speaker 1>streets of Malbourne over the weekend. Two police officers were

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalized after trying to keep anti immigration protesters and counter

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<v Speaker 1>anti racism protesters apart. Meanwhile, counterprotesters accused Victoria police of violence,

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<v Speaker 1>which injured and hospitalized some attendees. Police say counterprotesters through

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<v Speaker 1>rotten fruit rocks and glass bottles to try and break

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<v Speaker 1>through barricades. In response, they said they used flash bangs,

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<v Speaker 1>pepper spray, and rubber bulls to keep the groups apart.

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<v Speaker 1>You can listen to our recent report about police and protests.

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<v Speaker 1>It's called Why Protests Are Getting More Dangerous and it's

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<v Speaker 1>in your feed right now. I'm Daniel James. This is

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<v Speaker 1>seven AM. Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 4>O