Speaker 1: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had devastating consequences. Tens of
Speaker 1: thousands of people have been killed and millions of people
Speaker 1: have been displaced. Entire communities, towns, and cities have been flattened,
Speaker 1: and Russia now occupies significant sways of Ukrainian land. Nowifi's
Speaker 1: recent Middle East peace steal, Trump is saying Russia's next.
Speaker 2: I think that President Putin wants to end the war,
Speaker 2: or it wouldn't be talking this way. I spoke to
Speaker 2: him yesterday for two and a half hours. We went
Speaker 2: through a lot of details. He wants to get it ended.
Speaker 2: I think that President Zelensky wants to get it ended.
Speaker 1: Now we have to get it done. So what would
Speaker 1: it take to end the war? I'm Daniel James, and
Speaker 1: you're listening to seven am today. Associate professor of Political
Speaker 1: science and International Affairs at George Washington University David Saconi
Speaker 1: on the office Putin is making Trump and what they'll
Speaker 1: mean for the people of Ukraine. It's cheese day, ok,
Speaker 1: Tiober twenty one. David, thanks for speaking with me. Let's
Speaker 1: start with one of me. Zelensky's meeting with Trump last week.
Speaker 1: What was Lensky's position going into this mating and what
Speaker 1: did he hope to get out of it.
Speaker 3: I think Zelensky came to Washington with two main goals
Speaker 3: in mind. First, he wanted the United States to provide
Speaker 3: Tomahawk long range missiles and placed even greater pressure on
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin and forced them to the peace table. Secondly,
Speaker 3: I think he was hoping to secure firm US security
Speaker 3: guarantees to ensure that if they could reach a peace
Speaker 3: dale in the future, Russia would actually be bound to
Speaker 3: its terms and not.
Speaker 1: Defect shall only by speak at it.
Speaker 3: The mood in Kiev seemed quite optimistic I head of
Speaker 3: Zelensky's trip to Washington. In fact, just before his plane
Speaker 3: took off, the speaker of Ukraine's parliament, it was LANs
Speaker 3: stefan Chuk, told the BBC that this was a very
Speaker 3: important historical moment, and he said the meeting would make
Speaker 3: clear that the world would see that Putin was not
Speaker 3: trustworthy and that decisive action, specifically the delivery of these
Speaker 3: Tomahawk missiles would be needed to end the war. Enforced
Speaker 3: Russia to the negotiating table.
Speaker 4: We will not seize our struggle, for that would mean
Speaker 4: the end of our existence. We will not give up
Speaker 4: a single inch of land occupied by the enemy for
Speaker 4: our judo.
Speaker 3: There was a real sense of hope that not only
Speaker 3: would Trump agree to the tomahawk request, but this stronger
Speaker 3: US backing for Ukraine's position would continue to develop, and
Speaker 3: that more and more military and economic support would be
Speaker 3: delivered from the West.
Speaker 1: Why do you think the Ukrainians were feeling confident that
Speaker 1: I would get the tomahawks.
Speaker 3: It's been fascinating to watch US Ukrainan relations evolve since
Speaker 3: that fateful February meeting back in the Oval Office, and
Speaker 3: really surprising about how vocal Trump has been in his
Speaker 3: support for Ukraine's interest over the last couple of months.
Speaker 5: Do they want to have tomahawks going in that direction?
Speaker 2: I don't think so.
Speaker 5: I think I might speak to Russia about that.
Speaker 3: Nor have he declared that Ukraine would receive the tomahawks
Speaker 3: if Putin wouldn't agree to return to peace talks.
Speaker 4: Are you saying that you will speak to Putin first
Speaker 4: about it?
Speaker 5: I might say, Look, if this war's not going to
Speaker 5: get settled, I'm going to send him tomahawks. I may
Speaker 5: say that tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon,
Speaker 5: and honestly, Russia does not need that.
Speaker 2: They don't need that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this is a potentially game changing missile system.
Speaker 3: So the fact that the United States was even discussing
Speaker 3: providing with Ukraine signaled that this was an important step
Speaker 3: forward in progressing and developing US military support for Ukraine.
Speaker 3: Tomahawks would allow Ukraine to not just tip the war
Speaker 3: in their favor, but target all sorts of critical military
Speaker 3: sites across Russia, from aviation bases to the factories producing
Speaker 3: the thousands of drones being sent into Ukraine and causing
Speaker 3: so much damage. And the Kublin really understood the nature
Speaker 3: of this system and how threatening would be for its
Speaker 3: own ability to wage war.
Speaker 1: Walls and Winsky was on his white to the US though.
Speaker 1: Putin cole Trump and talked to him one of the
Speaker 1: fine for two and a half hours. So what's not
Speaker 1: about that?
Speaker 3: Cool? Well, unfortunately we never get a full readout, and
Speaker 3: I think there are still reports emerging about what was said.
Speaker 3: Trump always portrays these calls with Putin as positive and productive,
Speaker 3: but the specifics are just very unclear. We do know
Speaker 3: that Putin is demanding Ukraine's surrendered territory, that Russia does
Speaker 3: not control in the Dundassen parts of Donetsk region. So
Speaker 3: Russia wants Zelensky to concede land that right now the
Speaker 3: Ukrainians have under their purview, and what he's offering in
Speaker 3: exchange is unattractive to Ukrainian's different parts of land that
Speaker 3: Russia controls that are destroyed and just not a real
Speaker 3: quid pro quo. But we also know that Putin warned
Speaker 3: that it's the United States or its allies provided long
Speaker 3: range missiles such as the Tomwawks Ukraine, that US Russian
Speaker 3: relations would be harmed and that peace would not be
Speaker 3: on the table. So the fact that Putin is bringing
Speaker 3: this up in the call means that the missiles are
Speaker 3: sitting in the front of his mind and he's concerned
Speaker 3: that the United States and Ukraine would go down that path,
Speaker 3: and his linking of the missile supply to this greater
Speaker 3: security arrangement the future of US relations means that the
Speaker 3: missiles are like a key bargaining chip. There were also
Speaker 3: some trade opportunities that were brought up, and you know,
Speaker 3: of course they Putin and Trump agreed to meet again
Speaker 3: face to face, this time in Budapest. So that was
Speaker 3: one outcome of the call, but those are the kind
Speaker 3: of broad contours of what I imagine was a really
Speaker 3: unwieldy conversation for chu Hi hours.
Speaker 1: The Ukrainian says. We said David had high hopes going
Speaker 1: into the meeting with Trump. Ultimately, though, what came out
Speaker 1: of it from a Ukrainian perspective.
Speaker 3: Very little in terms of concrete commitments. That leaves Ukraine
Speaker 3: with much less leverage and a forthcoming peace talks. And
Speaker 3: it seems like Trump is moving towards this transactional approach
Speaker 3: to the Russian Ukraine conflict. He really wants to work
Speaker 3: out a deal. I think he really cares about the
Speaker 3: cameras catching him bringing peace to the world. He seems
Speaker 3: to be obsessed with ending wars as a way of
Speaker 3: winning respect from the international community for his unconventional foreign
Speaker 3: policy approach. And as we all know, he cares deeply
Speaker 3: about winning some future Nobel Peace prize and doesn't really
Speaker 3: care how it gets done, who wins and who loses,
Speaker 3: as long as fighting quote unquote stops. So I think
Speaker 3: that optimism faded away, and now that there's even more
Speaker 3: skepticism that we're going to redo a lot of the
Speaker 3: same type of courtship that might not lead to any
Speaker 3: fruition or any real new military support.
Speaker 1: And while these conversations and meetings were taking place, the
Speaker 1: wall continued what's been happening on the ground, while the
Speaker 1: leaders continued the negotiations.
Speaker 3: Well, I think the big development of the last couple
Speaker 3: months is that both sides are targeting each other's critical infrastructure,
Speaker 3: specifically in the energy sector. So Ukraine has had a
Speaker 3: lot of success targeting refineries, especially those that are used
Speaker 3: to create gasoline for domestic consumption, and that's put a
Speaker 3: lot of pressure on supply for cars and basic transportation
Speaker 3: within Russia. It's a very visible sign of the conflict
Speaker 3: coming home for the average Russian citizen. At the same time,
Speaker 3: Russia has been targeting many similar assets within Ukraine, especially
Speaker 3: in electricity production and gas storage. Winter is coming in Ukraine,
Speaker 3: and Russia wants Ukrainians to feel the pain of cold
Speaker 3: winter with intermittent supplies and blackouts. So it's not just
Speaker 3: the front lines that are hot right now. There are
Speaker 3: other types of targeting and destruction going on to kind
Speaker 3: of bring the war home, both in Ukraine and Russia.
Speaker 3: And I think that maybe pushing both sides towards working
Speaker 3: towards the peace agreement because they realize that their citizens
Speaker 3: are desperate for a change, and desperate did not continue
Speaker 3: the war. More and more it seems that both sides
Speaker 3: are open to a ceasefire rather than fighting out the
Speaker 3: comfort to the end.
Speaker 1: Coming up, the business deals being dangled by the Kremlin, David,
Speaker 1: you mentioned Trump Imputin discussed trade opportunities during their marathon
Speaker 1: phone call. We know that's the way Trump operates through
Speaker 1: making deals. So what's known about what Russia is offering
Speaker 1: the US what it wants in return.
Speaker 3: Well, it's toyed with a number of different entreats to
Speaker 3: the Trump administration. Some are more military, such as extending
Speaker 3: the New Start Treaty and doing some nuclear non polluiferation
Speaker 3: and arms control, which Trump administration seems really keen on achieving.
Speaker 3: And then there's this other business element to it, which
Speaker 3: is Russia has floated giving US companies access to rare
Speaker 3: earth and other mineral resources. And it also has toyed
Speaker 3: with the idea of joint gas, oil and gas projects
Speaker 3: in the Arctic, even trilaterally between Russia and China and
Speaker 3: the United States. So the idea of making money by
Speaker 3: going into business together has been proposed to Trump as
Speaker 3: another carrot in terms of what a grand bargain could entail.
Speaker 3: And then there's a frankly ridiculous proposition of building an
Speaker 3: undersea or rail tunnel linking Russia and the United States,
Speaker 3: Alaska and Siberia. I think Elon Musk's boring company was
Speaker 3: even floated as one of the potential contractors to carry
Speaker 3: out this mega project. The economic value of something like
Speaker 3: this is just impossible to really fathom. I mean, these
Speaker 3: are not in either country the most dynamic or innovative
Speaker 3: or even trade linked regions, So why we would need
Speaker 3: to invest billions of dollars beyond some kind of like
Speaker 3: symbolic partnership or an opportunity for graft on both sides,
Speaker 3: it's these economic opportunities are really designed to sweeten Trump's
Speaker 3: appetite for peace rather than actually build long lasting cooperation
Speaker 3: between the two countries.
Speaker 1: And side, what should we expect from the upcoming meaning
Speaker 1: between Trump and Putin and Hungry?
Speaker 3: Honestly very little. Last time I was on your show,
Speaker 3: I predicted that the trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin, and
Speaker 3: Lensky would never happen, And I think my prediction was
Speaker 3: born out. They have yet to meet in person, So
Speaker 3: given what happened in August in Alaska and the back
Speaker 3: and forth between Trump and Putin, I think Trump's team
Speaker 3: is going to be just as unprepared and get it
Speaker 3: walked over by Putin and his staff. So I think
Speaker 3: it's going to be again a big photo app and
Speaker 3: a lot of blustering and a lot of optimism on
Speaker 3: Trump's part. But I'm doubtful that we're going to see
Speaker 3: any kind of concrete agreement or back and forth between
Speaker 3: Putin and Trump that would get us closer to ending
Speaker 3: this war.
Speaker 1: So, Diavid, what do you think it would take to
Speaker 1: win this war?
Speaker 3: I think the Tomahawks would be a first step. I
Speaker 3: think they would really put pressure on the Russian side
Speaker 3: and allow Ukraine to target some of the most destructive assets,
Speaker 3: the drone factories and some of the airplanes and aviation bases.
Speaker 3: I think would really help shield Ukrainian's domestic production and
Speaker 3: allow it to focus on areas where it could reclaim
Speaker 3: land from the Russian forces. I also think a stronger
Speaker 3: US and European commitment and financially and militarily across the board,
Speaker 3: whether it be intelligence or artillery shells or tanks. Russia
Speaker 3: can be beaten, but it requires the worst to step
Speaker 3: up even more than it already has, and a just
Speaker 3: unclear whether or not the chumplemanstradition is willing to go
Speaker 3: that far.
Speaker 1: David, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 3: Thank you for having me.
Speaker 1: Also with the news, British police are investigating claims that
Speaker 1: Prince Andrew asked an officer to try and find negative
Speaker 1: information about a woman who accused him of sexual assault.
Speaker 1: The British paper The Mail Online reported that Prince Andrew
Speaker 1: gave a police officer Virginia Guphra's date of birth and
Speaker 1: social security number and asked him to dig up dirt
Speaker 1: on her with a view to smearing her name. The
Speaker 1: reporting comes after Prince Andrew gave up his royal duties
Speaker 1: late last week following further revelations about his connections with
Speaker 1: sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the Victorian Premier has blamed
Speaker 1: a very small number of counterprotesters for violence in the
Speaker 1: streets of Malbourne over the weekend. Two police officers were
Speaker 1: hospitalized after trying to keep anti immigration protesters and counter
Speaker 1: anti racism protesters apart. Meanwhile, counterprotesters accused Victoria police of violence,
Speaker 1: which injured and hospitalized some attendees. Police say counterprotesters through
Speaker 1: rotten fruit rocks and glass bottles to try and break
Speaker 1: through barricades. In response, they said they used flash bangs,
Speaker 1: pepper spray, and rubber bulls to keep the groups apart.
Speaker 1: You can listen to our recent report about police and protests.
Speaker 1: It's called Why Protests Are Getting More Dangerous and it's
Speaker 1: in your feed right now. I'm Daniel James. This is
Speaker 1: seven AM. Thanks for listening.
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