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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today.

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Speaker 1: The pace of economic growth picks up, dampening hopes of

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Speaker 1: further rate cuts. The Boss of the Future Fund is

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Speaker 1: under fire over a twenty thousand dollars bill for two

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Speaker 1: international trips for his executive assistant, and shoppers get in

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Speaker 1: early to beat the Christmas rush. Plus twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: proves the year of contradictions in the property market and

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Speaker 1: the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH three seventy

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Speaker 1: to resume at the end of the month. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: the fourth of December twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning Sean ale Mode Morning Michael, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning. The economy is expanding at a

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Speaker 1: two point one percent clip, with consumers, business and the

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Speaker 1: government driving growth. The bad news is that inflation pressures

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Speaker 1: are rising. Taking an interest rate cut off the agenda.

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Speaker 2: It was probably a good result all in all for

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Speaker 2: the government, for the Central Bank, for business, for consumers,

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Speaker 2: although anyone running or rate cut probably will be a

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Speaker 2: bit disappointed. Didn't do much to help the cause, But

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Speaker 2: overall that shade an economy performing okay. Growth for the

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Speaker 2: quarter was zero point four percent, fueled by higher spending

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Speaker 2: by businesses, particularly data centers. Consumer spending was weaker in

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Speaker 2: the September quarter than the June quarter, though it still okay.

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Speaker 2: Government spending continues to contribute to growth. The trade sector

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Speaker 2: was solid. It actually detracted from growth, But what we're

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Speaker 2: seeing is the appreciation of the Aussie dollar making it

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Speaker 2: cheaper for us to buy imports. That's not sort of

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Speaker 2: a sign of weakness in the economy in many ways,

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Speaker 2: even if it does detract a little bit. Certainly, the

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Speaker 2: Trump tariffs haven't hit the local economy yet. It at

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Speaker 2: least they've hit the economy, but they haven't had a

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Speaker 2: negative impact yet. On a per capita basis, growth was flat,

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Speaker 2: suggesting basically rising population is what's driving growth. Productivity picked

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Speaker 2: up by just zero point eight percent, still pretty weak.

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Speaker 2: The big downside of the data. We knew this from

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Speaker 2: the CPI figures last week is that inflation is rising.

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Speaker 2: The left field point in it, which some people are

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Speaker 2: starting to realize. The reduction in inventory is detracted zero

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Speaker 2: point five percentage points from the quarterly growth figure. That

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Speaker 2: is a big number. In the due quarter it was zero,

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Speaker 2: so if you had zero point five to the zero

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Speaker 2: point four, you'd have a zero point nine percent growth rate. Oh,

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Speaker 2: you're looking at melee quizzing. You would think that if

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Speaker 2: inventories fell, they would be solid, right, and you'd be

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Speaker 2: adding to growth. You would think that. But no, when

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Speaker 2: a company sells from its stock, it's actually drawing down

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Speaker 2: on its assets. So it's a negative to GDP growth.

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Speaker 1: Really, Ah, there you go.

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Speaker 2: It's always one of those ones, which is kind of

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Speaker 2: intuitively doesn't make sense. So what you're seeing. I think

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Speaker 2: of it this. If you know a company has one

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Speaker 2: hundred units or something in something, demand spike so it

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Speaker 2: goes down to seventy units, then it reduces that from

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Speaker 2: one hundred to seventy obviously, and the suppliers haven't had

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Speaker 2: time to keep up with the boost in demand. Like

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Speaker 2: that's another way of thinking about it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, but does it matter? This is high risk stuff

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Speaker 1: me asking you this. But in terms of does it matter,

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Speaker 1: then kind of who is say spending it, for instance,

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Speaker 1: who is buying it that If this is then households

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Speaker 1: for instance, that is buying those products, and that's putting it.

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Speaker 2: Could be anyone buying it, so it doesn't matter. It

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Speaker 2: is a quirk of the accounts basically. Okay, that the

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Speaker 2: way you think about it is that inventries when they fall,

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Speaker 2: detract from growth, whereas intuitively you think, well, under selling more. Okay,

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Speaker 2: all right, but that's not the case because it's drawing

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Speaker 2: down on the company's assets.

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Speaker 1: All right. It was only high risks because I was

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Speaker 1: worried that when I ask you things sometimes I can

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Speaker 1: get a twenty second explanation or a twenty minute explanation.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, please don't let this be one of the

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Speaker 1: twenty minute ones. We do not have time for that today.

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Speaker 1: But that was a good That was a good shot.

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Speaker 1: Up to the point, there has been a lot of

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Speaker 1: debate about the public sector spending and the fact that

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Speaker 1: it had driven about seventy percent of GDP growth until

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Now Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been arguing

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Speaker 1: that the private sector is replacing the public sector in

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Speaker 1: terms of growing the economy. Is that true?

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Speaker 2: There were signs of that yesterday. I wouldn't say it's overwhelming,

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Speaker 2: really important, because the private sector probably would do a

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Speaker 2: much better job on productivity than the public sector. For example,

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Speaker 2: you look more likely to boost a supply capacity in

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Speaker 2: your economy. When it's a private sector driving it, maybe

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Speaker 2: more encouraging comments from Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock yesterday

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Speaker 2: ahead of the Bureau Statistics data release. She said the

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Speaker 2: private sector was beginning to take over from the public sector,

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Speaker 2: So I reckon she'd know if anyone would.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you would think. So, right, what's the bottom line here?

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Speaker 1: How is the economy performing? Is does that mean for

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Speaker 1: interest rates?

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Speaker 2: So the consensus among economists is that national accounts are

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Speaker 2: a pretty solid set of numbers showing a broadening of

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Speaker 2: economic growth along with inflation pressures. That raises a question

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Speaker 2: of whether the economy is at capacity and therefore where

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Bank needs to lift interest rates. Because if

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Speaker 2: you're not at capacity and you're growing, you can just

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Speaker 2: you can boost those inventories without adding to priced pressures.

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Speaker 2: But it's not go down that road the Reserve Banks.

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Speaker 2: Michelle Bullock again in sentence in Senate estimates yesterday, said

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Speaker 2: it wasn't clear with the economy was running above capacity.

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Speaker 2: He also said that the whole purpose of the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank Board was to bring inflation to the midpoint of

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Speaker 2: its target range of two to three percent. And it

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Speaker 2: hasn't done that. It's failed at that. So put all

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Speaker 2: that together in the blender. Used to go in the

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Speaker 2: mixed master. Nowadays it's a blender reckon the GDP figures slash.

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Speaker 2: Michelle Bullocks comments yesterday suggest no more rate cuts for

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Speaker 2: the foreseeable future. Great hikes, Well maybe maybe no. One

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Speaker 2: of our readers, quite readers, listeners, God, it's like the

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Speaker 2: old day.

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Speaker 1: You just threw yourself right back into newspaper.

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Speaker 2: I did. One of our listeners pointed out stop saying

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Speaker 2: that falling interest rates are good. Yeah, they're not always good.

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Speaker 2: And it is true when your third of the population

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Speaker 2: has a mortgage with those thirds want lower interest rates,

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Speaker 2: but a third own their own home and probably investing,

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Speaker 2: so they might like higher interest rates. So we have

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Speaker 2: to cut the value judgments on interest rates. It was

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Speaker 2: a very fair point.

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Speaker 1: Yep, there are winners and losers and everything really aren't there.

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Speaker 1: And now to this next story, Sean, this is quite remarkable.

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Speaker 1: The executive assistant to the boss of the Future Fund

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Speaker 1: racked up twenty thousand dollars in bills on two business

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Speaker 1: class trips, one of which was to inspect hotel rooms

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Speaker 1: for the Sovereign Wealth Fund Senior management team.

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Speaker 2: Has Saidator David Pocock said, like what they the person

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Speaker 2: set on the beads to see if they were too

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Speaker 2: hard or not.

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Speaker 1: My god, it's quite extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: In Senate estimates yesterday, Pocock accused the Future Fund Chief

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Speaker 2: Executive Raphael Aren't of spending taxpayer money in a cavilt way. Now,

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Speaker 2: the EA executive system had taken the other trip to

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Speaker 2: assist the Future Funds Board, whatever that means. Aunt said

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Speaker 2: the trip resulted in savings higher than the cost. He

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Speaker 2: said there was about thirty thousand dollars in savings and

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Speaker 2: that Paycock then asked whether it could have been done

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Speaker 2: online or over the phone. Maybe good at those savings

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Speaker 2: that way. Aunt himself was in hot water as well.

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Speaker 2: He attended the exclusive members only Club thirty three at Disneyland.

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Speaker 2: See the members only Club thirty three. You're thinking where

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Speaker 2: is this going? And then you end up with at Disneyland.

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Speaker 2: It takes it a slightly different term. He said it

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Speaker 2: was for business. He was unable to say if taxpayers

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Speaker 2: or Disney picked up the bill for that trip. He

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Speaker 2: said he went there to learn about Disney's training programs. Which,

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Speaker 2: now that I think of it, we are going to

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Speaker 2: have the Future Fund investors running around like Mickey Mouse.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, out of staying character at all times.

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Speaker 2: Yep, the Future Fund. Of course we all own that

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Speaker 2: it overseas the port while over about two hundred and

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Speaker 2: sixty one billion dollars. Anyway, chief executive in the EA

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Speaker 2: in hot water for travel expenses like keeping up Mickey

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Speaker 2: Mouse investing.

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Speaker 1: It's just not a good look, right, you know what

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Speaker 1: puntest yesterday was a day for exorbitant flights and travel

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Speaker 1: details because we then have Communications Minister Annika Wells also

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Speaker 1: under fire now after billing taxpayers seventy thousand dollars to

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Speaker 1: host an event in New York that was spooking Australia's

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Speaker 1: teen social media ban, and for spending almost one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars on flights to attend the United Nations General Assembly.

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Speaker 2: Worlds and the staff member flew to the September UN

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Speaker 2: General Assembly meeting after delaying her departure following the Optus

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Speaker 2: triple zero outage that was linked to three deaths when

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Speaker 2: calls to emergency services couldn't be connected. A senior public

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Speaker 2: servant also flew to New York earlier than planned. But

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Speaker 2: I mean I kind have sympathy for Wills on this one,

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Speaker 2: she said, rock in a hard place. She was criticized

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Speaker 2: for going, but she did stay. But that where I

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Speaker 2: really kind of run out of sympathy is the cost

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Speaker 2: of the return commercial flight to New York for world's

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Speaker 2: cost thirty four thousand dollars. Her deputy chief of staff's

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Speaker 2: cost was thirty eight thousand dollars. The online assistant secretary

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Speaker 2: he flew two days earlier twenty two thousand dollars thirty

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Speaker 2: eight thousand dollars for a turn business class airfare. I

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Speaker 2: mean I looked at yesterday fourteen fifteen, sixteen thousand dollars. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, come on.

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Speaker 1: No, no, And I don't think anyone's questioning whether they

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Speaker 1: say a minister should be traveling business class or anything.

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Speaker 1: But there are ways to actually do this in a

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Speaker 1: more cost effective, cost efficient way, right exactly. Ah, big

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Speaker 1: fiery start to the show, with an economics lesson as well,

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Speaker 1: which was less fiery but very educational. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Sean twenty twenty five has proven to be a year

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Speaker 1: of contradictions in the housing market, according to Domain, with

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Speaker 1: the first interest rate cuts in four years being swamped

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Speaker 1: by rising property prices in every capital city.

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Speaker 2: In its end of year wrap, which I don't like

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Speaker 2: to even says, it means it's the end of the year,

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Speaker 2: Domain said, prices rose everywhere. On average, houses rose nine percent,

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Speaker 2: unit seven percent. Investors flooded back to the market competing

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Speaker 2: with first home buyers. Therefore that bottom end of the

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Speaker 2: market actually did pretty well. So called affordable cities of Brisbane,

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Speaker 2: Adelaide and Perth, well they've lost their status as affordable.

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Speaker 2: The Domain report also says that the rate cuts in February,

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Speaker 2: May and August reignited by confidence, pushing clearance rates to

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Speaker 2: multi year highs, but that boosted price growth overwhelming the

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Speaker 2: benefits of the rate reductions.

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Speaker 1: Consumers are buying earlier ahead of Christmas this year, but

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Speaker 1: the total number of shoppers will fall as cost of

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Speaker 1: living pressures persist.

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Speaker 2: Sixty eight percent of Australian adults plan to buy gifts

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Speaker 2: this year, which is actually down from a year ago,

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Speaker 2: down nine percent. Tatal gifts spendings forecast arise slightly to

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Speaker 2: twelve billion dollars shoppers spend on average seven to fifty seven.

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Speaker 2: The biggest spenders are the thirty five to forty nine

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Speaker 2: year olds to expect to show out an average of

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Speaker 2: eight hundred and fifty three dollars. According to the Australian

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Speaker 2: Retailers Association, the six run six week run into Christmas,

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Speaker 2: which includes the just completed Black Friday Cyber Monday sales,

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Speaker 2: most important period every year for retailers. The Retailers Association

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Speaker 2: says tatle spend, we're talking everything you know, grocries, alcohol,

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Speaker 2: the whole shebang forecast to come in for the six

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Speaker 2: weeks at seventy two point four billion dollars this year.

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Speaker 2: An interesting trend. They pointed out the ongoing shift towards

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Speaker 2: bricks and mortar shopping as a proportion of total shopping.

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Speaker 2: So it's not like people aren't online shopping, but as

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Speaker 2: the pie grows, the proportion in the growth in bricks

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Speaker 2: and water is growing faster.

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Speaker 1: Okay, speaking of online shopping, Today's Q and A Sean

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Speaker 1: Carl Durrant, who is the Managing Director Australia New Zealand

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Speaker 1: for Stripe, which is the global payments platform. It comes

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Speaker 1: into the studio and talking about Black Friday, Cyber Monday,

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Speaker 1: the future of retail into some of these stats just

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Speaker 1: about how much people were spending over the four day

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Speaker 1: period and before that.

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Speaker 2: That's me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not surprised.

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Speaker 2: I went out of control.

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Speaker 1: Oh god, well, you're going to love what he says

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Speaker 1: about the future of spending where AI actually goes and

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Speaker 1: does the shopping for you and you no longer need

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Speaker 1: to actually do any price comparisons, which is music to

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Speaker 1: my ears. It's only like eighteen months away, so it's

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Speaker 1: just it's a ripper of ittat. It's coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show. Local markets, how did we go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Very quickly slightly higher eighty five nine to five points.

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Speaker 2: Market fell in the run into the GDP figure GDP figure,

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Speaker 2: then it serveed and it came back gained big minus

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Speaker 2: BHP fourtuscue rear led the large caps.

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Speaker 1: The Australian Superinnuation System yesterday got a ringing in from

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump, who said it was a good

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Speaker 1: scheme for working people and one that he is seriously

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Speaker 1: considering before.

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Speaker 2: A trillion dollar plus system has been garnering support in

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Speaker 2: Washington for most of the year. Really obviously, Trump has

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Speaker 2: now heard about it. The President said the Australian superannuation

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Speaker 2: system is liked by people in the US. It is

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Speaker 2: considered a plan for working people, he said. He said,

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Speaker 2: it's a good plan. It worked out very well.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps he also likes it because there's a huge amount

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Speaker 1: of money looking for a home and suddenly there's investment

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Speaker 1: potentially going into well we did.

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Speaker 2: There was a summit which Kevin Rudd hosted I'm going

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Speaker 2: to get this wrong in about March, and basically what

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Speaker 2: came of it out of it was a super fund

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Speaker 2: saying we're going to invest the trillion dollars in the US.

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Speaker 2: It was over like a decade long period or something

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Speaker 2: like that. That sort of thing is music to Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's It.

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Speaker 1: Is absolutely turning to international news. Now, how about this.

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Speaker 1: Michael and Susan Dell, the founders of the Dell Technologies Empire,

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Speaker 1: have pledged six point twenty five billion US dollars to

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Speaker 1: help fund so called Trump accounts, which are being rolled

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Speaker 1: out to American children.

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Speaker 2: It's very cool you pointed this story out to me.

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Speaker 2: The money will help support children benefiting from what's called

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Speaker 2: Invest America, which is the official name of a new

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Speaker 2: baby bond style program. So from next year, US Treasury

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Speaker 2: will put one thousand US dollars in an investment account

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Speaker 2: for every child born in twenty twenty five or later.

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Speaker 2: The Dell's Charitable Foundation will deposit an extra two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty dollars into twenty five million additional accounts. Those

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Speaker 2: donations will target lower income areas. Now it's believed to

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Speaker 2: be among the largest ever cash donation to charity. Good

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Speaker 2: on them. Donald Trump described the accounts as the first

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Speaker 2: real trust funds for every American child. It's a great concept, though,

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Speaker 2: the idea that you put in a thousand dollars, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I know lots of people who do it privately, whose

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Speaker 2: grandparents have put in money for kids and stuff like that. Yep.

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Speaker 2: It's just don't think it's a bad idea at all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And I like the fact that the Dells did

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Speaker 1: it on Tuesday, Giving Tuesday, which it's come up as

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Speaker 1: part of the Black Friday Cyber Monday, and now there

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Speaker 1: is Giving Tuesday, which has got them the focus on

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Speaker 1: philanthropy as well, which is kind of cool.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, very cool.

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Speaker 1: Finally, Sean, the search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH

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Speaker 1: three seventy will resume on December thirty, more than a

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Speaker 1: decade after the Beijing bound flight disappeared, and really what

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Speaker 1: is one of the world's greatest aviation mysteries.

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Speaker 2: The Boeing seven seven seven was carrying two hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty seven passengers and twelve crew when it vanished en

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Speaker 2: route from Kuala Lumpa to Beijing in twenty fourteen. Multiple

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Speaker 2: search operations for the plane have been conducted since then,

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Speaker 2: all proved fruitless. The most recent search in the Southern

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Speaker 2: Indian Ocean was suspended in April after just a few

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Speaker 2: weeks due to poor weather conditions. Now, exploration firm Ocean Affinity,

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Speaker 2: Oh sorry, Ocean Infinity has confirmed it will recommence seabed

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Speaker 2: operations for fifty five days conducted intermittently. Won't we all

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Speaker 2: want hope, wish, particularly for survivors and family, that they

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Speaker 2: actually find out what happened to Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Indeed?

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Speaker 2: Okay?

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Speaker 1: Up next Fear and Greed Q and A. As I

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Speaker 1: mentioned before with Stripe's Carl Durance, it is coming up

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au, which is also

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Speaker 1: where you sign up for that free daily newsletter that

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Speaker 1: I keep banging on about. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the fourth of December twenty twenty five. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 2: I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was fear and greed. Have a great day.