1 00:00:05,790 --> 00:00:08,010 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:08,010 --> 00:00:10,770 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. If the US election were to be held today, 3 00:00:10,770 --> 00:00:13,799 Sean Aylmer: polls suggest Donald Trump would be returning to the White 4 00:00:13,799 --> 00:00:16,049 Sean Aylmer: House. Of course, a lot can happen in six months 5 00:00:16,049 --> 00:00:18,989 Sean Aylmer: with the election being held in November. So as campaigning 6 00:00:18,989 --> 00:00:22,078 Sean Aylmer: heats up in the US, alongside Trump's legal woes, what 7 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:24,720 Sean Aylmer: are the factors that might influence the outcome? And why, 8 00:00:24,750 --> 00:00:27,960 Sean Aylmer: considering the improving state of the US economy, is President 9 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,620 Sean Aylmer: Joe Biden losing support? Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow ( non- 10 00:00:31,620 --> 00:00:34,769 Sean Aylmer: resident) at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked 11 00:00:34,769 --> 00:00:37,979 Sean Aylmer: with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first 12 00:00:37,979 --> 00:00:40,500 Sean Aylmer: term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. 13 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:43,528 Sean Aylmer: Last year, he published Trump's Australia, which looks at the 14 00:00:43,530 --> 00:00:46,679 Sean Aylmer: potential for Donald Trump to return to the presidency and 15 00:00:46,679 --> 00:00:50,730 Sean Aylmer: what that means for Australia. Also, a thoroughly good bloke. 16 00:00:50,790 --> 00:00:52,409 Sean Aylmer: Bruce Wolpe, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 17 00:00:52,709 --> 00:00:55,230 Bruce Wolpe: I can't resist that introduction. Thanks so much, Sean. 18 00:00:56,010 --> 00:00:58,530 Sean Aylmer: Bruce and I worked together many years ago at Fairfax, 19 00:00:58,530 --> 00:01:00,120 Sean Aylmer: and so we've known each other a long time. And 20 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,069 Sean Aylmer: when it comes to American politics, you are the man. 21 00:01:02,130 --> 00:01:05,130 Sean Aylmer: Let's start with the polls. They're going Trump's way in 22 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:06,840 Sean Aylmer: key states, why? 23 00:01:08,219 --> 00:01:10,949 Bruce Wolpe: He's leading in key states because his base is really 24 00:01:10,949 --> 00:01:14,190 Bruce Wolpe: enthusiastic and really out there. The issue for Joe Biden 25 00:01:14,190 --> 00:01:17,850 Bruce Wolpe: is headwinds, and the headwind that's biggest is age. He's 26 00:01:17,850 --> 00:01:21,660 Bruce Wolpe: 81 years old. He looks old, walks old, talks old. 27 00:01:22,170 --> 00:01:24,779 Bruce Wolpe: I think people kind of like the job that he's 28 00:01:24,780 --> 00:01:29,279 Bruce Wolpe: doing, but 70 to 80% of American people, who are polled on 29 00:01:29,279 --> 00:01:31,860 Bruce Wolpe: it, say he's too old for a second term, and 30 00:01:31,860 --> 00:01:36,060 Bruce Wolpe: that is the biggest speed bump that he faces. And 31 00:01:36,060 --> 00:01:39,450 Bruce Wolpe: he's not Benjamin Button, he's not getting any younger. Although 32 00:01:39,450 --> 00:01:42,509 Bruce Wolpe: Trump is only three or four years younger, he presents 33 00:01:42,509 --> 00:01:44,819 Bruce Wolpe: much more vigorously, much more strongly. He gets out on 34 00:01:44,819 --> 00:01:46,889 Bruce Wolpe: the stage, he's there for 90 minutes. He talks like 35 00:01:46,889 --> 00:01:50,280 Bruce Wolpe: Fidel Castro, and people say, " Wow, yeah, you can do 36 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:51,930 Bruce Wolpe: the job. You did the job. You can do the 37 00:01:51,930 --> 00:01:57,510 Bruce Wolpe: job." So Biden is losing support among key constituencies inside 38 00:01:57,510 --> 00:02:00,660 Bruce Wolpe: the Democratic Party. Young people, less inclined to vote for 39 00:02:00,660 --> 00:02:03,570 Bruce Wolpe: him. Black men who remember a pretty good economy under 40 00:02:03,870 --> 00:02:07,110 Bruce Wolpe: Trump, they're less inclined to vote for him. Hispanic voters 41 00:02:07,110 --> 00:02:11,250 Bruce Wolpe: across the country, are generally worried about the immigration situation 42 00:02:11,250 --> 00:02:13,230 Bruce Wolpe: and what happens to them with the border out of 43 00:02:13,230 --> 00:02:17,070 Bruce Wolpe: control, less inclined. Biden will carry those groups, but by 44 00:02:17,070 --> 00:02:22,168 Bruce Wolpe: smaller margins. And in the past two elections, 2020, 2016, decided 45 00:02:22,169 --> 00:02:26,310 Bruce Wolpe: by some tens of thousands of votes out of 150 46 00:02:26,310 --> 00:02:29,250 Bruce Wolpe: million votes cast. That's a pretty serious issue. 47 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,669 Sean Aylmer: Will they vote for Trump or will they just not vote? 48 00:02:33,540 --> 00:02:36,300 Bruce Wolpe: Trump's base will vote for Trump. He has 70% of 49 00:02:36,300 --> 00:02:40,079 Bruce Wolpe: the Republican Party locked up. What was so interesting about 50 00:02:40,079 --> 00:02:43,350 Bruce Wolpe: the primaries on the Republican side was Trump crushed his 51 00:02:43,350 --> 00:02:48,720 Bruce Wolpe: opponents, but between 20 and 25% of Republicans voting in those primaries 52 00:02:49,050 --> 00:02:53,580 Bruce Wolpe: for DeSantis or Nikki Haley or Tim Scott, 20 to 25, did 53 00:02:53,580 --> 00:02:56,190 Bruce Wolpe: not vote for Trump. So the question is, does he 54 00:02:56,190 --> 00:02:59,940 Bruce Wolpe: have a ceiling or where do those voters go? And 55 00:03:00,029 --> 00:03:03,060 Bruce Wolpe: I think some of them will say, " Well, you weren't 56 00:03:03,060 --> 00:03:05,100 Bruce Wolpe: my first choice. You're my second choice. I'll stay with 57 00:03:05,100 --> 00:03:07,950 Bruce Wolpe: you." I think some of them will say, " I'm a 58 00:03:07,950 --> 00:03:10,709 Bruce Wolpe: Republican. I can't vote for Joe Biden. I'll go with you." 59 00:03:11,429 --> 00:03:15,749 Bruce Wolpe: But others, Nikki Haley, she had 20% of the Republican 60 00:03:15,750 --> 00:03:18,900 Bruce Wolpe: vote in Maryland last week, 22% in Indiana the week 61 00:03:18,900 --> 00:03:22,500 Bruce Wolpe: before, I'd say half of her vote could be scooped 62 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:25,890 Bruce Wolpe: up by Biden, which would offset the losses that he's 63 00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:30,898 Bruce Wolpe: facing from young voters and other Democrats. So this election 64 00:03:30,900 --> 00:03:33,839 Bruce Wolpe: is going to be won by the candidate who loses 65 00:03:33,900 --> 00:03:36,479 Bruce Wolpe: the least number of votes among those who should be 66 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:37,140 Bruce Wolpe: voting for him. 67 00:03:38,610 --> 00:03:40,920 Sean Aylmer: Surely, if you're sitting in the US at the moment, 68 00:03:41,310 --> 00:03:44,010 Sean Aylmer: given what we've been through, you must be fairly happy 69 00:03:44,010 --> 00:03:44,730 Sean Aylmer: with the economy? 70 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,929 Bruce Wolpe: No, you're not. And actually, Biden has the same problem 71 00:03:48,929 --> 00:03:52,680 Bruce Wolpe: that Anthony Albanese has as prime minister here. Prices have 72 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,340 Bruce Wolpe: risen 20% over the past three years and everything... you 73 00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:58,002 Bruce Wolpe: go into a shop today, a supermarket, you (inaudible) , 74 00:03:59,010 --> 00:04:02,190 Bruce Wolpe: things are really expensive. And at the same time, interest 75 00:04:02,190 --> 00:04:05,220 Bruce Wolpe: rates are at, at least over the past three decades, 76 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,780 Bruce Wolpe: record levels. And so you are really squeezed. And so 77 00:04:09,780 --> 00:04:12,749 Bruce Wolpe: even though the macroeconomy may be doing fine on job 78 00:04:12,750 --> 00:04:16,678 Bruce Wolpe: creation and clean energy and high- tech investments, chips and 79 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,159 Bruce Wolpe: stuff like that, the things that Prime Minister Albanese wants 80 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,860 Bruce Wolpe: to do with make it in Australia, even though that 81 00:04:22,860 --> 00:04:26,039 Bruce Wolpe: looks pretty good, your day- to- day lived experience is 82 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,770 Bruce Wolpe: things are really tight and I don't have a lot 83 00:04:28,770 --> 00:04:31,860 Bruce Wolpe: of spare money. And so the prime minister or the 84 00:04:31,860 --> 00:04:35,099 Bruce Wolpe: president owns the economy, and that is the problem. And that 85 00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:38,070 Bruce Wolpe: problem will be solved if there are interest rate cuts. 86 00:04:38,070 --> 00:04:41,130 Bruce Wolpe: Biden needs two interest rate cuts before the election to 87 00:04:41,130 --> 00:04:44,880 Bruce Wolpe: begin to reverse perceptions on the economy, and Albanese needs 88 00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:48,090 Bruce Wolpe: two to three, when he faces the electorate next year. 89 00:04:48,389 --> 00:04:51,930 Bruce Wolpe: That's the driver. And so I think it's perfectly understandable. 90 00:04:53,100 --> 00:04:57,479 Sean Aylmer: What about Donald Trump's legal woes? And certainly over the 91 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,630 Sean Aylmer: past few weeks, we've once again heard some pretty sordid 92 00:05:00,630 --> 00:05:03,389 Sean Aylmer: details around payment of hush money to a porn star 93 00:05:03,389 --> 00:05:06,029 Sean Aylmer: and what went on, et cetera. It doesn't seem to 94 00:05:06,029 --> 00:05:10,860 Sean Aylmer: affect his popularity from where I stand. Is it? 95 00:05:11,610 --> 00:05:13,920 Bruce Wolpe: Well, we're in real time and we have a real 96 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,250 Bruce Wolpe: life experiment, and we're going to find out. I think 97 00:05:17,250 --> 00:05:21,089 Bruce Wolpe: the trial may be moving into its final stages over 98 00:05:21,089 --> 00:05:24,089 Bruce Wolpe: the next 7 to 10 days. And it's quite possible 99 00:05:24,089 --> 00:05:27,810 Bruce Wolpe: it'll go to the jury before May 27, May 28, 100 00:05:27,810 --> 00:05:29,880 Bruce Wolpe: the end of May, and then there will be a 101 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,750 Bruce Wolpe: verdict. Now, if Trump is acquitted, I think that's highly 102 00:05:33,750 --> 00:05:36,960 Bruce Wolpe: unlikely because I think perceptions of the jury and how 103 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:38,939 Bruce Wolpe: they're paying attention, there are going to be some guilty 104 00:05:38,940 --> 00:05:42,360 Bruce Wolpe: votes in the jury. If Trump has a hung jury, 105 00:05:42,450 --> 00:05:44,849 Bruce Wolpe: if it's a mistrial, I think he will claim a 106 00:05:44,850 --> 00:05:47,820 Bruce Wolpe: big victory. I think he will say, " You see? This 107 00:05:47,820 --> 00:05:51,330 Bruce Wolpe: was a political case brought against me by Joe Biden 108 00:05:51,330 --> 00:05:54,900 Bruce Wolpe: himself and the Attorney General Merrick Garland, and they ginned 109 00:05:54,900 --> 00:05:57,240 Bruce Wolpe: this up and they did it in order to drive 110 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,119 Bruce Wolpe: me from the race, make me ineligible in the eyes 111 00:06:00,119 --> 00:06:03,779 Bruce Wolpe: of the American people to run. They're rigging the election." If 112 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:07,410 Bruce Wolpe: it's a mistrial in New York, he can say, " Wow, 113 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,710 Bruce Wolpe: even in one of the most left- wing communist cities 114 00:06:10,710 --> 00:06:14,070 Bruce Wolpe: in the United States, I won," I think that's a big deal. 115 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,039 Bruce Wolpe: But if he is convicted, then we're going to have 116 00:06:17,039 --> 00:06:19,680 Bruce Wolpe: this real- life experiment as to whether it will take 117 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,730 Bruce Wolpe: a toll on him. Polls seem to indicate that voters 118 00:06:23,790 --> 00:06:26,549 Bruce Wolpe: would view a convicted felon as the nominee as a 119 00:06:26,550 --> 00:06:31,229 Bruce Wolpe: real handicap, and he could lose 20 to 25% of 120 00:06:31,230 --> 00:06:35,339 Bruce Wolpe: voters based on that. But whether that truly eventuates, we 121 00:06:35,339 --> 00:06:37,050 Bruce Wolpe: don't know. I mean, in one sense, this has been 122 00:06:37,050 --> 00:06:40,799 Bruce Wolpe: priced into politics for eight years. The 2016 election was 123 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:45,240 Bruce Wolpe: eight years ago when this nonsense occurred, and he's viable 124 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:48,419 Bruce Wolpe: today. So the issue's going to be, if there's a 125 00:06:48,420 --> 00:06:51,089 Bruce Wolpe: verdict at the end of May, how viable is he going 126 00:06:51,089 --> 00:06:52,890 Bruce Wolpe: to be in June? And we're going to find out. 127 00:06:53,580 --> 00:06:55,230 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Bruce. We'll be back in a minute. 128 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,710 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow ( non- resident) at 129 00:07:04,710 --> 00:07:09,269 Sean Aylmer: the United States Studies Centre. When you talk about Donald 130 00:07:09,270 --> 00:07:11,160 Sean Aylmer: Trump, it's hard not to think of what he has 131 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:15,480 Sean Aylmer: done in terms of dividing politics, but also the rule 132 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:18,150 Sean Aylmer: of law, questioning the rule of law. I know that 133 00:07:18,150 --> 00:07:19,920 Sean Aylmer: you wrote about some of his more extreme views that 134 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,759 Sean Aylmer: were documented by Time Magazine, stuff around abortion law, deportation 135 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:28,229 Sean Aylmer: of immigrants, loyalty as to civil servants, just how divisive 136 00:07:28,230 --> 00:07:30,540 Sean Aylmer: and polarizing a campaign are we going to see in 137 00:07:30,540 --> 00:07:31,410 Sean Aylmer: the next six months? 138 00:07:32,070 --> 00:07:35,400 Bruce Wolpe: It's going to be very divisive and very polarizing, and 139 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:38,550 Bruce Wolpe: that's exactly what Biden wants to do. He wants to say, " 140 00:07:38,700 --> 00:07:42,179 Bruce Wolpe: Really, the choice is our democracy is at stake because 141 00:07:42,179 --> 00:07:45,750 Bruce Wolpe: he's such an anti- democratic person, and he's so extreme." 142 00:07:45,990 --> 00:07:48,419 Bruce Wolpe: I mean, in all of his... what he's going to 143 00:07:48,450 --> 00:07:50,640 Bruce Wolpe: do to immigrants, what he's going to do to the rule 144 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,160 Bruce Wolpe: of law, what he's going to do about following acts of 145 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,530 Bruce Wolpe: Congress, what is he going to do to his enemies? 146 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:57,689 Bruce Wolpe: What's he going to do with the Justice Department and 147 00:07:57,690 --> 00:08:01,469 Bruce Wolpe: prosecuting people he doesn't like and who believes that they 148 00:08:01,469 --> 00:08:05,190 Bruce Wolpe: are enemies? So that's going to be the case. I 149 00:08:05,190 --> 00:08:10,170 Bruce Wolpe: still think there still is this two- sideisms. Trump, he 150 00:08:10,170 --> 00:08:13,110 Bruce Wolpe: has the mainstream of most Republicans, but he's so out 151 00:08:13,110 --> 00:08:16,980 Bruce Wolpe: of what is normal in American politics, the question is 152 00:08:16,980 --> 00:08:20,369 Bruce Wolpe: why he isn't being punished more by voters. And I 153 00:08:20,370 --> 00:08:22,830 Bruce Wolpe: think it just goes down to a feeling among many 154 00:08:22,830 --> 00:08:26,280 Bruce Wolpe: people, Washington isn't working, they're not delivering for me on 155 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,160 Bruce Wolpe: the economy, as we discussed. We want a better future 156 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,380 Bruce Wolpe: or we need someone to shake up the system. And 157 00:08:31,380 --> 00:08:33,330 Bruce Wolpe: one thing that people believe that Trump will do is 158 00:08:33,330 --> 00:08:35,550 Bruce Wolpe: shake up the system, one way or another. 159 00:08:36,599 --> 00:08:39,090 Sean Aylmer: What about Trump if he wins, what's it mean for Australia? 160 00:08:40,109 --> 00:08:42,388 Bruce Wolpe: I think there are two dimensions to that. One is 161 00:08:42,389 --> 00:08:44,910 Bruce Wolpe: just the management of issues. Trump has said, for example, 162 00:08:44,910 --> 00:08:47,100 Bruce Wolpe: I'm going to put a 10% tariff on everything coming 163 00:08:47,100 --> 00:08:49,590 Bruce Wolpe: into the United States because the United States is ripped 164 00:08:49,590 --> 00:08:52,228 Bruce Wolpe: off on trade deals. There is a US- Australia free 165 00:08:52,230 --> 00:08:55,349 Bruce Wolpe: trade agreement. I don't know how a 10% tariff reconciles 166 00:08:55,349 --> 00:08:58,468 Bruce Wolpe: with that. That's going to be really interesting. Australia has 167 00:08:58,500 --> 00:09:01,920 Bruce Wolpe: major interests in the Indo- Pacific, and with respect to 168 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:06,090 Bruce Wolpe: China and with respect to the alliances that underline AUKUS, but just 169 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:09,990 Bruce Wolpe: the strategic alliances with the United States from Japan to 170 00:09:09,990 --> 00:09:12,780 Bruce Wolpe: Australia. What is Trump going to do with those? It's 171 00:09:12,780 --> 00:09:15,088 Bruce Wolpe: known he wants to take troops out of South Korea. 172 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,549 Bruce Wolpe: It's known that he wants Japan to pay more for 173 00:09:17,549 --> 00:09:20,610 Bruce Wolpe: the American forces that are there. And it's known he 174 00:09:20,610 --> 00:09:23,309 Bruce Wolpe: wants to do something with Xi. He wants a trade 175 00:09:23,340 --> 00:09:25,740 Bruce Wolpe: war with Xi in order to get some leverage. But 176 00:09:25,740 --> 00:09:28,920 Bruce Wolpe: Xi wants Taiwan. Well, is there a deal there, where 177 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:31,860 Bruce Wolpe: Trump gets a trade deal and Xi gets Taiwan? What's 178 00:09:31,860 --> 00:09:34,170 Bruce Wolpe: he going to do with AUKUS? There were signs from 179 00:09:34,199 --> 00:09:37,588 Bruce Wolpe: former Prime Minister Morrison who met with Trump recently. Morrison 180 00:09:37,590 --> 00:09:40,920 Bruce Wolpe: thought that Trump was kind of supportive of AUKUS. I 181 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,470 Bruce Wolpe: don't believe that until you hear it from Trump himself, 182 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,290 Bruce Wolpe: A, because he can turn on a dime and just 183 00:09:46,290 --> 00:09:50,070 Bruce Wolpe: change his mind overnight. And secondly, because he looks at 184 00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:52,559 Bruce Wolpe: everything in very transactional terms. And I think he's going 185 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,110 Bruce Wolpe: to look at AUKUS and say, " Well, where are the 186 00:09:55,110 --> 00:09:59,160 Bruce Wolpe: jobs? How much money is Australia paying for the nuclear 187 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,340 Bruce Wolpe: technology and the subs? Is it enough? Do we want 188 00:10:02,340 --> 00:10:04,679 Bruce Wolpe: to give even this technology to even one of our 189 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:07,259 Bruce Wolpe: strongest allies?" So I think there's going to be a 190 00:10:07,259 --> 00:10:09,838 Bruce Wolpe: scrubbing on that. So there are these day- to- day 191 00:10:10,139 --> 00:10:13,830 Bruce Wolpe: issues. They're profound, but really important. But then there is 192 00:10:13,950 --> 00:10:16,470 Bruce Wolpe: the larger question. He's going to do this around the 193 00:10:16,470 --> 00:10:19,200 Bruce Wolpe: world. And the world order that we've known since the 194 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:22,588 Bruce Wolpe: end of World War II is crumbling and Trump will 195 00:10:22,590 --> 00:10:25,139 Bruce Wolpe: be an accelerant of that. Well, what does that mean 196 00:10:25,139 --> 00:10:27,989 Bruce Wolpe: for Australia? Who does Australia align with? How can you? 197 00:10:28,500 --> 00:10:30,990 Bruce Wolpe: And so I think there are some deeper strategic questions 198 00:10:31,379 --> 00:10:33,780 Bruce Wolpe: that Canberra is going to have to face if Trump 199 00:10:33,780 --> 00:10:35,728 Bruce Wolpe: is elected. It's going to be a big agenda. 200 00:10:36,660 --> 00:10:39,510 Sean Aylmer: Who will win, Bruce, Joe Biden or Donald Trump? 201 00:10:40,230 --> 00:10:43,139 Bruce Wolpe: I don't know. Again, if the election was held today, 202 00:10:43,139 --> 00:10:46,980 Bruce Wolpe: Trump would win. But there're going to be surprises. There's going 203 00:10:46,980 --> 00:10:49,500 Bruce Wolpe: to be a reset. We're going to have a debate 204 00:10:49,950 --> 00:10:53,130 Bruce Wolpe: in June, which is really early. But it's early 'cause 205 00:10:53,130 --> 00:10:56,040 Bruce Wolpe: this is the longest campaign in American history, and I 206 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,309 Bruce Wolpe: think that could be a reset moment. Biden really wanted 207 00:10:59,309 --> 00:11:02,190 Bruce Wolpe: those debates. And Trump, I'm kind of surprised he accepted 208 00:11:02,190 --> 00:11:06,360 Bruce Wolpe: it with alacrity. Both men believe they can take the 209 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,150 Bruce Wolpe: other man down. Biden believes he can show Trump as 210 00:11:09,150 --> 00:11:11,940 Bruce Wolpe: being extreme. Trump believes he can show as Biden being 211 00:11:11,940 --> 00:11:16,828 Bruce Wolpe: senile and can't take two sentences together. So I think it'll 212 00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:20,520 Bruce Wolpe: be the largest television audience for an American debate in 213 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,208 Bruce Wolpe: history. And so the outcome of that, coupled with the 214 00:11:24,330 --> 00:11:28,500 Bruce Wolpe: conviction, if that happens in New York, coupled with how 215 00:11:28,500 --> 00:11:31,949 Bruce Wolpe: people feel about the economy with Biden, if the trajectory 216 00:11:31,950 --> 00:11:34,020 Bruce Wolpe: is going to change, that's when it'll begin to change. 217 00:11:34,050 --> 00:11:35,580 Bruce Wolpe: But I'm not sure how it'll go. 218 00:11:36,210 --> 00:11:37,919 Sean Aylmer: Bruce, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 219 00:11:38,639 --> 00:11:41,190 Bruce Wolpe: Hey, that's perfect with Trump. We love it. Thank you 220 00:11:41,190 --> 00:11:41,848 Bruce Wolpe: so much, Sean. 221 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:45,120 Sean Aylmer: That is Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow ( non- resident) at the 222 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,760 Sean Aylmer: United States Studies Centre. This is the Fear and Greed 223 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,069 Sean Aylmer: business interview. Join us every morning for the full episode 224 00:11:50,070 --> 00:11:53,129 Sean Aylmer: of Fear and Greed, Australia's best business podcast. I'm Sean 225 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:54,360 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Enjoy your day.