Speaker 1: We have a breaking news for us now, and in
Speaker 1: fact we will go to justinto Alabam.
Speaker 2: Sent me a message.
Speaker 3: After a chaotic twenty four hours of backroom plotting and
Speaker 3: mounting pressure, the Victorian Premier resigned.
Speaker 2: I've made the difficult decision to step aside as leader
Speaker 2: of the Victorian State Parliamentary Labor Party and as Premier
Speaker 2: of Victoria.
Speaker 3: Her replacement and former Deputy Leader, Ben Carroll now just
Speaker 3: has four months to turn Labour's fortunes around and what's
Speaker 3: shaping up to be the most unpredictable election the state
Speaker 3: has ever seen.
Speaker 4: I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not just Ciner Allen.
Speaker 4: I will do things differently because different times require a
Speaker 4: new approach.
Speaker 3: Polls show an unprecedented three party contest, with voters split
Speaker 3: almost equally between the unpopular Labor government, an opposition ridden
Speaker 3: by scandal, and a rising one Nation.
Speaker 2: I saw off too liberal leaders. Now I expect my
Speaker 2: successor will see off the third and if they don't,
Speaker 2: one nation certainly will.
Speaker 3: I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM today
Speaker 3: ABC Melbourne Morning's host Raph Epstein on what Labour's change
Speaker 3: of leader means for an already chaotic election race and
Speaker 3: whether Australia's most progressive state could turn orange. It's Wednesday,
Speaker 3: July twenty nine, so raph on Monday the Victorian Premier,
Speaker 3: Justin to Allen was digging her heels in. Yesterday she
Speaker 3: handed in her resignation. Walk me through how this played out.
Speaker 5: This played out.
Speaker 6: I have to say this played out exactly as the
Speaker 6: plotters intended. There's been pressure building under Sintra Allen's leadership
Speaker 6: for a number of month, have been people encouraging Ben
Speaker 6: Carroll to do something. Last week though they bunk it
Speaker 6: down together. Actually all went to Balaat together, all the
Speaker 6: Labor MPs in the Victorian Parliament and the Police minister
Speaker 6: whose name is Anthony Carbines. He was like, this isn't
Speaker 6: working and you're driving the government off a cliff. What
Speaker 6: it meant was that when he then faced the cameras
Speaker 6: the next day, he then was asked for all this
Speaker 6: is true?
Speaker 5: Did it happen? He didn't deny it. He just did
Speaker 5: the oh, well, you know, I don't talk about internal matters.
Speaker 4: Do you think that he should be donored?
Speaker 6: Well, you're referring to the caucus conference, and I don't
Speaker 6: comment on caucus meetings. That is really what sparked this.
Speaker 6: And then actually went to her on Monday morning a
Speaker 6: delegation of ministers and factional MPs and said, look, you've
Speaker 6: lost the room, You've lost caucus. She said, ah, nah,
Speaker 6: you're not doing this. She has been telegraphing for ages
Speaker 6: publicly and privately. If you do this, I will effectively
Speaker 6: burn the house down. If you come for me, she
Speaker 6: writes to the state Secretary, she says, I want you
Speaker 6: to repair all the members. We're gonna have a leadership ballot.
Speaker 6: The plotters were always confident that she would eventually FOLLLD,
Speaker 6: but the premiers backers. I cannot begin to convey the anger.
Speaker 6: They are furious with the plotters. I had one MP
Speaker 6: almost crying, saying she deserves the right to go to
Speaker 6: the people. Keep in much she didn't face the voters.
Speaker 6: Dan Andrews handed over to her after the last election.
Speaker 6: But once all the phones started running hot on Monday
Speaker 6: evening and into Tuesday morning, I think that's when the
Speaker 6: Premier just introl and realized, you know what, I don't
Speaker 6: have the support. We then thought it would all smooth
Speaker 6: out and there'd be a simple transition to Ben Carroll.
Speaker 6: But then we had a crazy few hours on Tuesday morning.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it got pretty chaotic when a third contender put
Speaker 3: their hand up as well for the premiership, and then
Speaker 3: Withdrew almost immediately tell me about what happened.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So keep in mind, anytime there's a contest between
Speaker 6: two Leeds, it has to go to the members. So
Speaker 6: the meeting was for ten o'clock. It wasn't until twenty
Speaker 6: minutes past nine that we found out for sure Cinrall
Speaker 6: is not going to contest the leadership.
Speaker 2: I will shortly chair a caucus meeting to elect a
Speaker 2: new leader. Should Ben Carroll emerge as our next Labor
Speaker 2: Leader and Labor Premier, he will have my congratulations and
Speaker 2: unqualified support.
Speaker 6: So everyone then, as used or at least everyone outside
Speaker 6: of the Labor Party caucus goes, oh, well, easy done.
Speaker 6: There's no other contender. Ben Carroll will be it soon
Speaker 6: it comes out there. Oh hang on the just CenTra
Speaker 6: Olan loyalist Sonya kill Kenny, who also happens to be
Speaker 6: the Attorney General and the Planning Minister and the Finance Minister.
Speaker 6: Oh I don't know, Sonya kill Kenny's going to contest
Speaker 6: the leadership that immediately raised the prospect between about ten
Speaker 6: and eleven o'clock, well, hang on, that means at least
Speaker 6: twenty four hours for the different leadership contenders to gather nominations,
Speaker 6: and who knows after that, days or even weeks of
Speaker 6: campaigning between Ben Carroll who's now the Premier, and son
Speaker 6: you kill or Kenny. In the few months we've got
Speaker 6: before the actual election campaign, before the whole Victorian public,
Speaker 6: there were some really nasty texts flying thick and fast.
Speaker 6: It has all resolved. They finally back down. The people
Speaker 6: who were furious that Jacintrellen has been deposed back down.
Speaker 6: But lots of allegations of driving the party off the cliff,
Speaker 6: lots of allegations that instead of being faceless men, you're
Speaker 6: a bunch of headless trucks. Lots of allegations of In fact,
Speaker 6: someone said to me that the Premier and her supporters
Speaker 6: are prepared to burn the house down and to burn
Speaker 6: all the bodies inside as well. Now it's an ugly metaphor,
Speaker 6: but they mint it. The mistrust is visceral, it's real.
Speaker 6: They've got a paper over it. While fighting off the
Speaker 6: coalition and fighting off one nation and also fighting off
Speaker 6: the Greens in some in the city seas. So it's ugly,
Speaker 6: it's messy. They've got a new face and we're going
Speaker 6: to get some pretty significant new policies as well.
Speaker 3: Okay, so four months out from the election, polls until
Speaker 3: now have been showing Labor, the coalition and one Nation
Speaker 3: locked into this incredibly tight contest. Those polls they obviously
Speaker 3: right on everyone, including within the Labor party room. So
Speaker 3: can a change in leader? Can Ben Carroll change Labour's fortunes?
Speaker 5: My instant guests would be no.
Speaker 6: I mean, there's no one who's thought for a long
Speaker 6: time Ben Carroll's the superstar of Victorian politics that Labor needs. Now.
Speaker 6: This is nothing against him, but he's not some sui
Speaker 6: generis out of the box, one of a kind politician
Speaker 6: of his generation. They're all fine in this government, just
Speaker 6: like the state Opposition cabinet is fine. But he's the
Speaker 6: bearer of hopes that there'll be significant policy change. I
Speaker 6: just wanted you to think about the number one policy,
Speaker 6: the number one thing the plot is want and the
Speaker 6: number one thing Ben Carroll will announce is a Royal
Speaker 6: Commission into corruption in the construction industry.
Speaker 4: My first action as Premier will be to call a
Speaker 4: Royal Commission into the construction sector. We will also immediately
Speaker 4: establish a special prosecutor that will work in parallel with
Speaker 4: the Royal Commission.
Speaker 6: These issues, to be frank have lingered since the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 6: If Labor now sets up a Royal Commission and they've
Speaker 6: got a few months, I guess to get it going.
Speaker 6: Does that genuinely change people's perceptions of what happened over
Speaker 6: the last few years. I've had tons of people ring
Speaker 6: in and say, look, lifelong Labor voter, not going to
Speaker 6: change my vote, but oh my god, why haven't they
Speaker 6: called a royal commission. The media's been debating the merits
Speaker 6: of a Royal commission for years. For the very first
Speaker 6: time on Monday, while just seeing trail and was still
Speaker 6: Premier that actually had an argument. They actually had a fight.
Speaker 6: Do we need a Royal Commission in the construction industry?
Speaker 6: I do think significant issue. I don't know if it's
Speaker 6: a vote changing issue. You might be pissed off with
Speaker 6: Labor about that, but if you are still on the
Speaker 6: left you might then vote Green or independent. Of course,
Speaker 6: if you're a coalition voter, it's a huge issue.
Speaker 5: But you're already on the coalition side.
Speaker 6: We've got a first term MP in Jess Wilson leading
Speaker 6: the coalition. Then, to make it even harder, I don't
Speaker 6: know who one nation's lead it is in Victoria. We
Speaker 6: don't know who it is. I think there's one, maybe
Speaker 6: two candidates. They say they're going to have candidates in
Speaker 6: all eighty eight seats. It just makes it impossible to
Speaker 6: predict what's going to happen. And sure the elections in November,
Speaker 6: people are going to be able to vote. They'll be
Speaker 6: able to put a one in a box in fourteen
Speaker 6: weeks time, twelve weeks of the campaign, fourteen weeks until
Speaker 6: early voting opens. So in electoral terms we are five
Speaker 6: minutes to midnight from finding out what happens.
Speaker 3: Still to come as labor scrambles, could one nation come
Speaker 3: out on top rap As she resigned, Jacinta Allen said,
Speaker 3: I saw off two liberal leaders. Now I expect my
Speaker 3: successor will see off a third. And if they don't,
Speaker 3: one nation certainly will so talk me through the most
Speaker 3: recent polling. As one nation has gained ground, what are
Speaker 3: their chances in Victoria in four months time?
Speaker 6: One nation is doing something I don't think any political
Speaker 6: party has done in all of the time I've been
Speaker 6: a journal for thirty years.
Speaker 5: We're in really really new territory.
Speaker 6: If I can just be really nerdy and give you
Speaker 6: the actual numbers, the Coalition are polling at about twenty
Speaker 6: seven percent, the Alps polloing at just under twenty five percent,
Speaker 6: so that's less than one in four voters, and one
Speaker 6: nation are averaging about twenty three percent. That's just remarkable
Speaker 6: territory for Victoria to be in, and for any political
Speaker 6: survey in Australia to be in.
Speaker 5: By comparison, when Labor.
Speaker 6: When Labor last lost an election, so sixteen years ago,
Speaker 6: they were polling at thirty six percent, so they were
Speaker 6: polling ten more than ten percent more, but they lost
Speaker 6: the election and the Coalition were polling like in the
Speaker 6: forties and not in the twenties. But to have one
Speaker 6: nation in the mix as a major party polling basically
Speaker 6: the same in the twenties alongside the major parties, it
Speaker 6: just means all of the usual tools and the ways
Speaker 6: that we predict what might happen all gets thrown up
Speaker 6: in the air. So it makes it very very difficult
Speaker 6: to work out what's going to happen next?
Speaker 3: And as you say, those polling numbers that despite the
Speaker 3: party not having a state leader or any official candidates yet.
Speaker 1: Nine dot com dot Au paid a visit to One
Speaker 1: Nation's headquarters in Pakenham, which is located around sixty kilometers
Speaker 1: from the Melbourne CBD, and there was not a single
Speaker 1: soul in sight. The office was mostly a ghost town,
Speaker 1: save for a few placards inside and a cardboard cutout
Speaker 1: of Paul in Hanson?
Speaker 3: Will One Nation be able to get organized enough to
Speaker 3: field candidates in all eighty eight seats as it's promising?
Speaker 6: Your question is a great question. Can they actually field
Speaker 6: candidates in every one of the eighty eight seats?
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 6: The South Australian experience may or may not be a
Speaker 6: great guide. They had a lot of people out there.
Speaker 6: Did they have a lot of the problems with those candidates?
Speaker 6: Absolutely they did.
Speaker 3: We begin tonight with a spectacular blow to One Nation's
Speaker 3: election campaign.
Speaker 2: Justice South Australians prepared to cast their votes.
Speaker 7: Oh wee Baxter, the thirty one year old, was a
Speaker 7: no show at a court appearance in the where he
Speaker 7: was due to face a charge of sexually touching a
Speaker 7: woman without consent.
Speaker 5: Police say it's getting very very late in the piece.
Speaker 5: This is July.
Speaker 6: We're talking about an election in November, so you've got
Speaker 6: to nominate within a few months. But then on top
Speaker 6: of that, one nation's polling at twenty percent in inner
Speaker 6: metropolitan seats, so one nation's polling higher than the Greens.
Speaker 5: This is a red bridge pole that's happened a few times.
Speaker 5: It just makes it really confusing. What does that mean?
Speaker 6: Will one Nation voters follow one Nation preference card? Will
Speaker 6: one Nation voters preference the Conservatives ahead of preferencing the
Speaker 6: Labor Party. I don't even know who the Victoria one
Speaker 6: Nation leader is. There's someone organizing the party, but it's
Speaker 6: not the person who's going to be in parliament.
Speaker 5: So it just makes it really difficult to talk about
Speaker 5: an election at the end of November.
Speaker 3: And let's talk about the coalition. When it comes to
Speaker 3: the new premier, Ben Carroll, will they see his ascent
Speaker 3: as a threat or as an opportunity for them?
Speaker 6: It's an opportunity because you can say, oh, well, if
Speaker 6: her own party didn't want to sinker out, if the
Speaker 6: government can't even decide who they want.
Speaker 5: To lead the place. Why would devote for them?
Speaker 6: So that's an asset. It's a good line. The Coalition
Speaker 6: have got real problems in regional Victoria. That's where one
Speaker 6: nation is really surging. I'm sure the National Party are
Speaker 6: really worried. The National Party have done well despite the
Speaker 6: Liberal Party's re actions in recent elections in Victoria. I
Speaker 6: am sure they are concerned. One nation's polling thirty sometimes
Speaker 6: forty percent in the regions. They've got enough of their
Speaker 6: own problems. They do have stability now, however, they haven't
Speaker 6: been without their own problems. It's eleven or twelve days
Speaker 6: since the Liberal Party kicked Marodmi out. She has today
Speaker 6: said she's going to leave parliament and won't be running.
Speaker 6: So it's not like people aren't getting reminders of the
Speaker 6: fantastic ability of the Victorian Liberal Party to politically self immolate.
Speaker 6: They've been doing that spectacularly well for a very long time.
Speaker 6: Jess Wilson's biggest job is just to convince people that
Speaker 6: they have changed. That's a tall order as well. But
Speaker 6: who knows right? Who knows where people get their news from?
Speaker 6: Who knows if people know who Jess Wilson is? Who
Speaker 6: knows how many Victorians know who Ben Carroll is, and
Speaker 6: then we don't have a one nation leader in Victoria.
Speaker 5: It makes it really tough to read.
Speaker 3: So, Ralph, when you look at the state of play
Speaker 3: in Victoria right now, what do you think this election
Speaker 3: will tell us about where the rest of the country
Speaker 3: is headed, particularly when it comes to one nation.
Speaker 6: I think usually a significant number of people separate state
Speaker 6: and federal factors out. I think a lot of people
Speaker 6: are aware of what the labor government's done, hospitals, roads.
Speaker 6: They know what the issues are, whether or not they
Speaker 6: think they're important, whether or not they think corruption is significant,
Speaker 6: whether or not it's being cleaned up, whether they think
Speaker 6: death significant. I think most of the time people are
Speaker 6: able to separate those things out. Does one nation complicate that?
Speaker 5: Sure? Absolutely?
Speaker 6: But the reason I'm so cautious, and I know people
Speaker 6: will think I'm sitting on the fence. I lived through
Speaker 6: all of the anger at Dan Andrews over those lockdowns
Speaker 6: like that was this that was real, That was angry.
Speaker 6: What happened at the end of that, They increased their majority,
Speaker 6: they got an extra seat. Not many people were predicting
Speaker 6: that everyone was writing Labor off at the last election
Speaker 6: three and a half years ago at the end of
Speaker 6: twenty two, after the tough COVID lockdowns. So it just
Speaker 6: makes it really hard to tell and the revolution we're
Speaker 6: living in. I'm talking to you on one of these
Speaker 6: damn gadgets controlled by all of the biggest companies in
Speaker 6: the world that are all run by people in America
Speaker 6: who's got some really poisonous values that I really.
Speaker 5: Find a lot of trouble with. It just means everything.
Speaker 5: Every card's been thrown up into the air well.
Speaker 3: Ralph, thank you so much for your.
Speaker 5: Time, absolute pleasure. It was always rumy.
Speaker 3: Also in the news, two senior leaders at the Australian
Speaker 3: Council of Train Union have announced they'll be stepping back
Speaker 3: from their roles. ACTU Secretary Sally McManus and President Michelle
Speaker 3: O'Neill say they've made the decision to make way for
Speaker 3: a new generation of leadership at the union, which represents
Speaker 3: one point eight million members. The pair formed the actu's
Speaker 3: first all female leadership team and have led the peak
Speaker 3: body for almost a decade. During that time, achieving what
Speaker 3: they describe as forty seven new workplace rights that have
Speaker 3: become law under the Alberhezi government and Australians are being
Speaker 3: warned to get used to higher fuel prices, as Foreign
Speaker 3: Minister Penny Wong says the government intends to discontinue the
Speaker 3: sixteen cent per leader discount this coming Sunday. The recent
Speaker 3: fuel excise was implemented on April first, before being halved
Speaker 3: from thirty two cents per leader to sixteen in July.
Speaker 3: Oil prices tipped over one hundred US dollars a barrel
Speaker 3: last week for the first time since May. The government
Speaker 3: says its focus is now on cost of living relief
Speaker 3: and ensuring stable supplies of fuel and fertilizer into Australia.
Speaker 3: I'm Ruby Jones. Thanks for listening.