WEBVTT - “It’s ugly. It’s messy”: Inside the plot to bring down the Victorian premier

0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.840
<v Speaker 1>We have a breaking news for us now, and in

0:00:03.880 --> 0:00:06.080
<v Speaker 1>fact we will go to justinto Alabam.

0:00:06.480 --> 0:00:07.880
<v Speaker 2>Sent me a message.

0:00:07.960 --> 0:00:11.080
<v Speaker 3>After a chaotic twenty four hours of backroom plotting and

0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.320
<v Speaker 3>mounting pressure, the Victorian Premier resigned.

0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:18.160
<v Speaker 2>I've made the difficult decision to step aside as leader

0:00:18.400 --> 0:00:22.000
<v Speaker 2>of the Victorian State Parliamentary Labor Party and as Premier

0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:23.200
<v Speaker 2>of Victoria.

0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:27.000
<v Speaker 3>Her replacement and former Deputy Leader, Ben Carroll now just

0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:30.360
<v Speaker 3>has four months to turn Labour's fortunes around and what's

0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:33.400
<v Speaker 3>shaping up to be the most unpredictable election the state

0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:34.120
<v Speaker 3>has ever seen.

0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:40.280
<v Speaker 4>I am not Daniel Andrews. I am not just Ciner Allen.

0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:46.199
<v Speaker 4>I will do things differently because different times require a

0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:46.919
<v Speaker 4>new approach.

0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Polls show an unprecedented three party contest, with voters split

0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:55.800
<v Speaker 3>almost equally between the unpopular Labor government, an opposition ridden

0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:57.920
<v Speaker 3>by scandal, and a rising one Nation.

0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:03.360
<v Speaker 2>I saw off too liberal leaders. Now I expect my

0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:07.800
<v Speaker 2>successor will see off the third and if they don't,

0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:10.360
<v Speaker 2>one nation certainly will.

0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:18.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM today

0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:22.160
<v Speaker 3>ABC Melbourne Morning's host Raph Epstein on what Labour's change

0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:25.399
<v Speaker 3>of leader means for an already chaotic election race and

0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:32.560
<v Speaker 3>whether Australia's most progressive state could turn orange. It's Wednesday,

0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:41.600
<v Speaker 3>July twenty nine, so raph on Monday the Victorian Premier,

0:01:41.600 --> 0:01:44.920
<v Speaker 3>Justin to Allen was digging her heels in. Yesterday she

0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:49.440
<v Speaker 3>handed in her resignation. Walk me through how this played out.

0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:50.480
<v Speaker 5>This played out.

0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:54.120
<v Speaker 6>I have to say this played out exactly as the

0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:58.880
<v Speaker 6>plotters intended. There's been pressure building under Sintra Allen's leadership

0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:01.520
<v Speaker 6>for a number of month, have been people encouraging Ben

0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:05.400
<v Speaker 6>Carroll to do something. Last week though they bunk it

0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:07.720
<v Speaker 6>down together. Actually all went to Balaat together, all the

0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.799
<v Speaker 6>Labor MPs in the Victorian Parliament and the Police minister

0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:14.120
<v Speaker 6>whose name is Anthony Carbines. He was like, this isn't

0:02:14.120 --> 0:02:17.440
<v Speaker 6>working and you're driving the government off a cliff. What

0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:19.600
<v Speaker 6>it meant was that when he then faced the cameras

0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:21.680
<v Speaker 6>the next day, he then was asked for all this

0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:22.000
<v Speaker 6>is true?

0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:24.239
<v Speaker 5>Did it happen? He didn't deny it. He just did

0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:26.440
<v Speaker 5>the oh, well, you know, I don't talk about internal matters.

0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:28.560
<v Speaker 4>Do you think that he should be donored?

0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.919
<v Speaker 6>Well, you're referring to the caucus conference, and I don't

0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:36.520
<v Speaker 6>comment on caucus meetings. That is really what sparked this.

0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.800
<v Speaker 6>And then actually went to her on Monday morning a

0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.320
<v Speaker 6>delegation of ministers and factional MPs and said, look, you've

0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.839
<v Speaker 6>lost the room, You've lost caucus. She said, ah, nah,

0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.799
<v Speaker 6>you're not doing this. She has been telegraphing for ages

0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:54.920
<v Speaker 6>publicly and privately. If you do this, I will effectively

0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.520
<v Speaker 6>burn the house down. If you come for me, she

0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.519
<v Speaker 6>writes to the state Secretary, she says, I want you

0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.640
<v Speaker 6>to repair all the members. We're gonna have a leadership ballot.

0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.359
<v Speaker 6>The plotters were always confident that she would eventually FOLLLD,

0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:10.560
<v Speaker 6>but the premiers backers. I cannot begin to convey the anger.

0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.840
<v Speaker 6>They are furious with the plotters. I had one MP

0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:17.600
<v Speaker 6>almost crying, saying she deserves the right to go to

0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:20.160
<v Speaker 6>the people. Keep in much she didn't face the voters.

0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:23.560
<v Speaker 6>Dan Andrews handed over to her after the last election.

0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.079
<v Speaker 6>But once all the phones started running hot on Monday

0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:29.320
<v Speaker 6>evening and into Tuesday morning, I think that's when the

0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:32.160
<v Speaker 6>Premier just introl and realized, you know what, I don't

0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:34.880
<v Speaker 6>have the support. We then thought it would all smooth

0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.120
<v Speaker 6>out and there'd be a simple transition to Ben Carroll.

0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.600
<v Speaker 6>But then we had a crazy few hours on Tuesday morning.

0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:44.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it got pretty chaotic when a third contender put

0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:47.840
<v Speaker 3>their hand up as well for the premiership, and then

0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Withdrew almost immediately tell me about what happened.

0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:54.720
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, So keep in mind, anytime there's a contest between

0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:57.800
<v Speaker 6>two Leeds, it has to go to the members. So

0:03:57.840 --> 0:03:59.920
<v Speaker 6>the meeting was for ten o'clock. It wasn't until twenty

0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.720
<v Speaker 6>minutes past nine that we found out for sure Cinrall

0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.200
<v Speaker 6>is not going to contest the leadership.

0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.760
<v Speaker 2>I will shortly chair a caucus meeting to elect a

0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:13.800
<v Speaker 2>new leader. Should Ben Carroll emerge as our next Labor

0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:19.000
<v Speaker 2>Leader and Labor Premier, he will have my congratulations and

0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:21.240
<v Speaker 2>unqualified support.

0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:23.880
<v Speaker 6>So everyone then, as used or at least everyone outside

0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.240
<v Speaker 6>of the Labor Party caucus goes, oh, well, easy done.

0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:30.400
<v Speaker 6>There's no other contender. Ben Carroll will be it soon

0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.839
<v Speaker 6>it comes out there. Oh hang on the just CenTra

0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.480
<v Speaker 6>Olan loyalist Sonya kill Kenny, who also happens to be

0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:39.200
<v Speaker 6>the Attorney General and the Planning Minister and the Finance Minister.

0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:41.679
<v Speaker 6>Oh I don't know, Sonya kill Kenny's going to contest

0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:45.120
<v Speaker 6>the leadership that immediately raised the prospect between about ten

0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.960
<v Speaker 6>and eleven o'clock, well, hang on, that means at least

0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:52.560
<v Speaker 6>twenty four hours for the different leadership contenders to gather nominations,

0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:55.880
<v Speaker 6>and who knows after that, days or even weeks of

0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.680
<v Speaker 6>campaigning between Ben Carroll who's now the Premier, and son

0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.119
<v Speaker 6>you kill or Kenny. In the few months we've got

0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:05.480
<v Speaker 6>before the actual election campaign, before the whole Victorian public,

0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:09.000
<v Speaker 6>there were some really nasty texts flying thick and fast.

0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.279
<v Speaker 6>It has all resolved. They finally back down. The people

0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:16.039
<v Speaker 6>who were furious that Jacintrellen has been deposed back down.

0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:19.280
<v Speaker 6>But lots of allegations of driving the party off the cliff,

0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.000
<v Speaker 6>lots of allegations that instead of being faceless men, you're

0:05:22.000 --> 0:05:24.839
<v Speaker 6>a bunch of headless trucks. Lots of allegations of In fact,

0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.000
<v Speaker 6>someone said to me that the Premier and her supporters

0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:29.799
<v Speaker 6>are prepared to burn the house down and to burn

0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.720
<v Speaker 6>all the bodies inside as well. Now it's an ugly metaphor,

0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:37.039
<v Speaker 6>but they mint it. The mistrust is visceral, it's real.

0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:39.719
<v Speaker 6>They've got a paper over it. While fighting off the

0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.680
<v Speaker 6>coalition and fighting off one nation and also fighting off

0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:45.839
<v Speaker 6>the Greens in some in the city seas. So it's ugly,

0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:49.240
<v Speaker 6>it's messy. They've got a new face and we're going

0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:51.280
<v Speaker 6>to get some pretty significant new policies as well.

0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:54.599
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so four months out from the election, polls until

0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.240
<v Speaker 3>now have been showing Labor, the coalition and one Nation

0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:01.279
<v Speaker 3>locked into this incredibly tight contest. Those polls they obviously

0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:04.200
<v Speaker 3>right on everyone, including within the Labor party room. So

0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:08.880
<v Speaker 3>can a change in leader? Can Ben Carroll change Labour's fortunes?

0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:10.359
<v Speaker 5>My instant guests would be no.

0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:14.200
<v Speaker 6>I mean, there's no one who's thought for a long

0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:19.800
<v Speaker 6>time Ben Carroll's the superstar of Victorian politics that Labor needs. Now.

0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:22.320
<v Speaker 6>This is nothing against him, but he's not some sui

0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:25.880
<v Speaker 6>generis out of the box, one of a kind politician

0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:28.880
<v Speaker 6>of his generation. They're all fine in this government, just

0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.640
<v Speaker 6>like the state Opposition cabinet is fine. But he's the

0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.800
<v Speaker 6>bearer of hopes that there'll be significant policy change. I

0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:36.719
<v Speaker 6>just wanted you to think about the number one policy,

0:06:36.760 --> 0:06:39.120
<v Speaker 6>the number one thing the plot is want and the

0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 6>number one thing Ben Carroll will announce is a Royal

0:06:42.240 --> 0:06:45.400
<v Speaker 6>Commission into corruption in the construction industry.

0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:50.560
<v Speaker 4>My first action as Premier will be to call a

0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:55.719
<v Speaker 4>Royal Commission into the construction sector. We will also immediately

0:06:55.839 --> 0:07:01.080
<v Speaker 4>establish a special prosecutor that will work in parallel with

0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:02.839
<v Speaker 4>the Royal Commission.

0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:06.279
<v Speaker 6>These issues, to be frank have lingered since the nineteen eighties.

0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:08.840
<v Speaker 6>If Labor now sets up a Royal Commission and they've

0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:10.480
<v Speaker 6>got a few months, I guess to get it going.

0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:14.920
<v Speaker 6>Does that genuinely change people's perceptions of what happened over

0:07:14.920 --> 0:07:17.240
<v Speaker 6>the last few years. I've had tons of people ring

0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:19.760
<v Speaker 6>in and say, look, lifelong Labor voter, not going to

0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:21.960
<v Speaker 6>change my vote, but oh my god, why haven't they

0:07:21.960 --> 0:07:24.480
<v Speaker 6>called a royal commission. The media's been debating the merits

0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.360
<v Speaker 6>of a Royal commission for years. For the very first

0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:29.400
<v Speaker 6>time on Monday, while just seeing trail and was still

0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:32.400
<v Speaker 6>Premier that actually had an argument. They actually had a fight.

0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.080
<v Speaker 6>Do we need a Royal Commission in the construction industry?

0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.440
<v Speaker 6>I do think significant issue. I don't know if it's

0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:42.560
<v Speaker 6>a vote changing issue. You might be pissed off with

0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:44.920
<v Speaker 6>Labor about that, but if you are still on the

0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.880
<v Speaker 6>left you might then vote Green or independent. Of course,

0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:49.880
<v Speaker 6>if you're a coalition voter, it's a huge issue.

0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.120
<v Speaker 5>But you're already on the coalition side.

0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:55.800
<v Speaker 6>We've got a first term MP in Jess Wilson leading

0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:59.200
<v Speaker 6>the coalition. Then, to make it even harder, I don't

0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.360
<v Speaker 6>know who one nation's lead it is in Victoria. We

0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:03.920
<v Speaker 6>don't know who it is. I think there's one, maybe

0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:06.880
<v Speaker 6>two candidates. They say they're going to have candidates in

0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.840
<v Speaker 6>all eighty eight seats. It just makes it impossible to

0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.680
<v Speaker 6>predict what's going to happen. And sure the elections in November,

0:08:13.000 --> 0:08:14.720
<v Speaker 6>people are going to be able to vote. They'll be

0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:17.040
<v Speaker 6>able to put a one in a box in fourteen

0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.800
<v Speaker 6>weeks time, twelve weeks of the campaign, fourteen weeks until

0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:25.520
<v Speaker 6>early voting opens. So in electoral terms we are five

0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.760
<v Speaker 6>minutes to midnight from finding out what happens.

0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:32.679
<v Speaker 3>Still to come as labor scrambles, could one nation come

0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:42.959
<v Speaker 3>out on top rap As she resigned, Jacinta Allen said,

0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:45.720
<v Speaker 3>I saw off two liberal leaders. Now I expect my

0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:48.400
<v Speaker 3>successor will see off a third. And if they don't,

0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:53.120
<v Speaker 3>one nation certainly will so talk me through the most

0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.120
<v Speaker 3>recent polling. As one nation has gained ground, what are

0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.480
<v Speaker 3>their chances in Victoria in four months time?

0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.920
<v Speaker 6>One nation is doing something I don't think any political

0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:04.079
<v Speaker 6>party has done in all of the time I've been

0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:05.440
<v Speaker 6>a journal for thirty years.

0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:07.480
<v Speaker 5>We're in really really new territory.

0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.079
<v Speaker 6>If I can just be really nerdy and give you

0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.240
<v Speaker 6>the actual numbers, the Coalition are polling at about twenty

0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:16.679
<v Speaker 6>seven percent, the Alps polloing at just under twenty five percent,

0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:18.719
<v Speaker 6>so that's less than one in four voters, and one

0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:23.079
<v Speaker 6>nation are averaging about twenty three percent. That's just remarkable

0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:27.080
<v Speaker 6>territory for Victoria to be in, and for any political

0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:29.080
<v Speaker 6>survey in Australia to be in.

0:09:29.440 --> 0:09:31.280
<v Speaker 5>By comparison, when Labor.

0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:34.160
<v Speaker 6>When Labor last lost an election, so sixteen years ago,

0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.720
<v Speaker 6>they were polling at thirty six percent, so they were

0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.240
<v Speaker 6>polling ten more than ten percent more, but they lost

0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.520
<v Speaker 6>the election and the Coalition were polling like in the

0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:43.959
<v Speaker 6>forties and not in the twenties. But to have one

0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:48.040
<v Speaker 6>nation in the mix as a major party polling basically

0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.200
<v Speaker 6>the same in the twenties alongside the major parties, it

0:09:51.320 --> 0:09:54.920
<v Speaker 6>just means all of the usual tools and the ways

0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:57.400
<v Speaker 6>that we predict what might happen all gets thrown up

0:09:57.440 --> 0:09:59.319
<v Speaker 6>in the air. So it makes it very very difficult

0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:00.640
<v Speaker 6>to work out what's going to happen next?

0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.080
<v Speaker 3>And as you say, those polling numbers that despite the

0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:09.199
<v Speaker 3>party not having a state leader or any official candidates yet.

0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:11.440
<v Speaker 1>Nine dot com dot Au paid a visit to One

0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:15.400
<v Speaker 1>Nation's headquarters in Pakenham, which is located around sixty kilometers

0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:17.800
<v Speaker 1>from the Melbourne CBD, and there was not a single

0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:20.800
<v Speaker 1>soul in sight. The office was mostly a ghost town,

0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:24.160
<v Speaker 1>save for a few placards inside and a cardboard cutout

0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.160
<v Speaker 1>of Paul in Hanson?

0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.520
<v Speaker 3>Will One Nation be able to get organized enough to

0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.360
<v Speaker 3>field candidates in all eighty eight seats as it's promising?

0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.240
<v Speaker 6>Your question is a great question. Can they actually field

0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:37.720
<v Speaker 6>candidates in every one of the eighty eight seats?

0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.800
<v Speaker 6>The South Australian experience may or may not be a

0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:43.880
<v Speaker 6>great guide. They had a lot of people out there.

0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:46.080
<v Speaker 6>Did they have a lot of the problems with those candidates?

0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:47.280
<v Speaker 6>Absolutely they did.

0:10:47.360 --> 0:10:50.520
<v Speaker 3>We begin tonight with a spectacular blow to One Nation's

0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:51.599
<v Speaker 3>election campaign.

0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:54.760
<v Speaker 2>Justice South Australians prepared to cast their votes.

0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.800
<v Speaker 7>Oh wee Baxter, the thirty one year old, was a

0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:00.920
<v Speaker 7>no show at a court appearance in the where he

0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:03.880
<v Speaker 7>was due to face a charge of sexually touching a

0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:05.320
<v Speaker 7>woman without consent.

0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.880
<v Speaker 5>Police say it's getting very very late in the piece.

0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:10.160
<v Speaker 5>This is July.

0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.600
<v Speaker 6>We're talking about an election in November, so you've got

0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.160
<v Speaker 6>to nominate within a few months. But then on top

0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.679
<v Speaker 6>of that, one nation's polling at twenty percent in inner

0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:22.679
<v Speaker 6>metropolitan seats, so one nation's polling higher than the Greens.

0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:24.920
<v Speaker 5>This is a red bridge pole that's happened a few times.

0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:27.600
<v Speaker 5>It just makes it really confusing. What does that mean?

0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:32.040
<v Speaker 6>Will one Nation voters follow one Nation preference card? Will

0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:36.280
<v Speaker 6>one Nation voters preference the Conservatives ahead of preferencing the

0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:38.640
<v Speaker 6>Labor Party. I don't even know who the Victoria one

0:11:38.679 --> 0:11:41.160
<v Speaker 6>Nation leader is. There's someone organizing the party, but it's

0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:42.679
<v Speaker 6>not the person who's going to be in parliament.

0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:44.680
<v Speaker 5>So it just makes it really difficult to talk about

0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:46.040
<v Speaker 5>an election at the end of November.

0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.120
<v Speaker 3>And let's talk about the coalition. When it comes to

0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:56.120
<v Speaker 3>the new premier, Ben Carroll, will they see his ascent

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.800
<v Speaker 3>as a threat or as an opportunity for them?

0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.640
<v Speaker 6>It's an opportunity because you can say, oh, well, if

0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.280
<v Speaker 6>her own party didn't want to sinker out, if the

0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:06.160
<v Speaker 6>government can't even decide who they want.

0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:07.559
<v Speaker 5>To lead the place. Why would devote for them?

0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:11.040
<v Speaker 6>So that's an asset. It's a good line. The Coalition

0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.040
<v Speaker 6>have got real problems in regional Victoria. That's where one

0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:17.560
<v Speaker 6>nation is really surging. I'm sure the National Party are

0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 6>really worried. The National Party have done well despite the

0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.440
<v Speaker 6>Liberal Party's re actions in recent elections in Victoria. I

0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:27.040
<v Speaker 6>am sure they are concerned. One nation's polling thirty sometimes

0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.679
<v Speaker 6>forty percent in the regions. They've got enough of their

0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:33.160
<v Speaker 6>own problems. They do have stability now, however, they haven't

0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:35.920
<v Speaker 6>been without their own problems. It's eleven or twelve days

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.760
<v Speaker 6>since the Liberal Party kicked Marodmi out. She has today

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.160
<v Speaker 6>said she's going to leave parliament and won't be running.

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 6>So it's not like people aren't getting reminders of the

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:49.280
<v Speaker 6>fantastic ability of the Victorian Liberal Party to politically self immolate.

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.840
<v Speaker 6>They've been doing that spectacularly well for a very long time.

0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.840
<v Speaker 6>Jess Wilson's biggest job is just to convince people that

0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 6>they have changed. That's a tall order as well. But

0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:03.679
<v Speaker 6>who knows right? Who knows where people get their news from?

0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 6>Who knows if people know who Jess Wilson is? Who

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 6>knows how many Victorians know who Ben Carroll is, and

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 6>then we don't have a one nation leader in Victoria.

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 5>It makes it really tough to read.

0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:17.000
<v Speaker 3>So, Ralph, when you look at the state of play

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 3>in Victoria right now, what do you think this election

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 3>will tell us about where the rest of the country

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 3>is headed, particularly when it comes to one nation.

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:31.199
<v Speaker 6>I think usually a significant number of people separate state

0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:34.240
<v Speaker 6>and federal factors out. I think a lot of people

0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 6>are aware of what the labor government's done, hospitals, roads.

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:40.600
<v Speaker 6>They know what the issues are, whether or not they

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.080
<v Speaker 6>think they're important, whether or not they think corruption is significant,

0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:44.880
<v Speaker 6>whether or not it's being cleaned up, whether they think

0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.200
<v Speaker 6>death significant. I think most of the time people are

0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.440
<v Speaker 6>able to separate those things out. Does one nation complicate that?

0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:52.160
<v Speaker 5>Sure? Absolutely?

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 6>But the reason I'm so cautious, and I know people

0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 6>will think I'm sitting on the fence. I lived through

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.880
<v Speaker 6>all of the anger at Dan Andrews over those lockdowns

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.520
<v Speaker 6>like that was this that was real, That was angry.

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 6>What happened at the end of that, They increased their majority,

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:10.280
<v Speaker 6>they got an extra seat. Not many people were predicting

0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:12.520
<v Speaker 6>that everyone was writing Labor off at the last election

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 6>three and a half years ago at the end of

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 6>twenty two, after the tough COVID lockdowns. So it just

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:21.160
<v Speaker 6>makes it really hard to tell and the revolution we're

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 6>living in. I'm talking to you on one of these

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.920
<v Speaker 6>damn gadgets controlled by all of the biggest companies in

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:27.960
<v Speaker 6>the world that are all run by people in America

0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 6>who's got some really poisonous values that I really.

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.880
<v Speaker 5>Find a lot of trouble with. It just means everything.

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 5>Every card's been thrown up into the air well.

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 3>Ralph, thank you so much for your.

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:48.080
<v Speaker 5>Time, absolute pleasure. It was always rumy.

0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 3>Also in the news, two senior leaders at the Australian

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.560
<v Speaker 3>Council of Train Union have announced they'll be stepping back

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 3>from their roles. ACTU Secretary Sally McManus and President Michelle

0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.600
<v Speaker 3>O'Neill say they've made the decision to make way for

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.680
<v Speaker 3>a new generation of leadership at the union, which represents

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:15.520
<v Speaker 3>one point eight million members. The pair formed the actu's

0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.400
<v Speaker 3>first all female leadership team and have led the peak

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.440
<v Speaker 3>body for almost a decade. During that time, achieving what

0:15:21.480 --> 0:15:24.240
<v Speaker 3>they describe as forty seven new workplace rights that have

0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 3>become law under the Alberhezi government and Australians are being

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.320
<v Speaker 3>warned to get used to higher fuel prices, as Foreign

0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 3>Minister Penny Wong says the government intends to discontinue the

0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 3>sixteen cent per leader discount this coming Sunday. The recent

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 3>fuel excise was implemented on April first, before being halved

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:44.400
<v Speaker 3>from thirty two cents per leader to sixteen in July.

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 3>Oil prices tipped over one hundred US dollars a barrel

0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.840
<v Speaker 3>last week for the first time since May. The government

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.680
<v Speaker 3>says its focus is now on cost of living relief

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 3>and ensuring stable supplies of fuel and fertilizer into Australia.

0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm Ruby Jones. Thanks for listening.