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Speaker 1: The federal government overhauls mergers laws, as China drops lobster bans,

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Speaker 1: the value of homes across the country pushes beyond eleven

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars for the first time, and the escalation of

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Speaker 1: conflict around the world spurs a different type of investment,

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Speaker 1: defense based ETFs. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business

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Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. It is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the eleventh of October twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Seawan the main story this morning. A very busy day

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Speaker 1: in Camber yesterday with the Albaneze government announcing an overhaul

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Speaker 1: of the mergers regime and China dropping tariffs on lobsters.

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Speaker 2: Treasure of Jim Chalmers, Let's start with him. He called

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Speaker 2: the overhaul of merger laws a really important economic reform

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Speaker 2: as he introduced legislation to scrap the existing voluntary merging

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Speaker 2: notification regime and introduced meditatory notification and where companies involved

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Speaker 2: in mergers meet certain thresholds. What's it mean, Well, it

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Speaker 2: means all supermarket mergers would spark a review by the

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Speaker 2: competition watchdog, the new laws will also allow the treasure

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Speaker 2: to designate what he calls high risk parts of the

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Speaker 2: economy where the AH will c will be able to

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Speaker 2: review all mergers regardless of whether they meet Keith thresholds. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: the Federal government has established a Parliamentary Select Committee to

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Speaker 2: acquire into nuclear power as it pushes to gain a

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Speaker 2: political advantage around the energy crisis. Opposition leonder ped Dutton

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Speaker 2: is refusing to reveal details and costings for his plans

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Speaker 2: to build seven nuclear power plants, saying that it would

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Speaker 2: be done in due course. Now, the committee, which will

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Speaker 2: report by April thirty next year, is considered a ploye

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Speaker 2: to expose the unviability of nuclear power. Also, Deputy Prime

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Speaker 2: Minister Richard Miles's chief of staff Joe Tanorski, claims she

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Speaker 2: was bullied out of her job and barred from her

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Speaker 2: office after complaining about colleagues undermining behavior. Missus Tornowski alleges

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Speaker 2: her boss effectively sacked term without warning in a phone

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Speaker 2: call on thirty April. According to the Guardian, mister Miles

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Speaker 2: says he's satisfied he has upheld his responsibilities under the

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Speaker 2: Ministerial Code of Conduct in his treatment of Ms Tonorski.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that is a massive day. Sean and Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Anthony Alberanezi met with Chinese Premier Lee Chung and afterwards

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Speaker 1: said Beijing will restart imports of Australia's live rock lobster

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Speaker 1: trade by the end of this year.

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Speaker 2: The major breakthrough clears the last of the more than

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Speaker 2: twenty billion dollars in trade bands introduced by China and

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Speaker 2: those COVID years under the Morrison government. Mister Albanesi said

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Speaker 2: the imports will restart in time for Chinese New Year's

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Speaker 2: celebrations and will boost export businesses here in Australia. Mister

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Speaker 2: Chung was upbeat on Australia, saying the relationship had continued

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Speaker 2: to move forward in a positive direction over the past weeks.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister and mister Chung were speaking in Laos,

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Speaker 2: where the Asian Summit is being held. Also at that

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Speaker 2: summit will be US Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln, Indian

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Speaker 2: President Narendra Modi, new Japanese PM Shigiru Isba and Russian

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Speaker 2: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

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Speaker 1: There are so many potential lobster puns.

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Speaker 2: There are yea sure refrain refrain.

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Speaker 1: I was just could I naturally work in a reference

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Speaker 1: to something being done at a pinch, all these various

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Speaker 1: kind of things, and you know what, you don't need

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Speaker 1: to do that.

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Speaker 2: Let's say how many you can get in the show

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Speaker 2: without me noticing.

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Speaker 1: Well that's a challenge. Well, let's go onto local markets

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Speaker 1: and I'll start doing some brainstorming. What happened yesterday?

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Speaker 2: S and Pax two hundred closed up zero point four

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Speaker 2: percent to eighty two hundred and twenty three points. The

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Speaker 2: banks were mixed, while the miners were stronger on the

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Speaker 2: back of higher iron ore prices. Forteskw Metals Group closed

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Speaker 2: up four percent. Were Tinto rose one point four percent

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Speaker 2: after agreeing on Wednesday night to buy arcadium lithium for

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Speaker 2: nine point nine billion dollars. Best in the day, not surprisingly,

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Speaker 2: was Arcadium. It jumped thirty nine percent yesterday. Other lithium

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Speaker 2: stocks also benefited rises in late resources Sane and Mining,

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Speaker 2: Linetown Resources, Woodside and Santos bounced. Affter oil prices rebounded.

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Speaker 2: Somewhat interesting one yesterday was bare HP. It added one

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Speaker 2: point four percent after Norway's sovereign wealth fund Nordge's Bank

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Speaker 2: removed the mining giant from a climate watch list.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It had been placed on that watch list in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty due to coal use in production. Now we know

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Speaker 2: BHP has been selling its coal assets, so it's back

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Speaker 2: in the good books with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund.

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Speaker 2: A few other bits and pieces around the place. Auto

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Speaker 2: parts manufacturer ARB Corporation rows after it set it's closer

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Speaker 2: to completing its acquisition of US business four wheel Parts

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Speaker 2: net Wealth. It jumped after posting a record increase in

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Speaker 2: funds under administration and Mining Services Group parent he rose

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Speaker 2: more than two percent after signing a two year extension

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Speaker 2: with lithium company Igo to mine at the Nova nickel

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Speaker 2: mine in Western Australia.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, you mentioned lithium. It is obviously the hot

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Speaker 1: topic at the moment, and your interview today is on

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Speaker 1: that very topic. You're talking to Francis Verdein from Vulcan Energy.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so Francis is the CEO of Vulcan. Really interesting company.

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Speaker 2: It's one of the few lithium produce This is in Europe,

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Speaker 2: listed here and in Germany. We talked about the company itself,

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Speaker 2: but also the market and what's going on with the

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Speaker 2: Rio deal, What's going on with lithium prices. It's a

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Speaker 2: fantastic look, not just into a specific company, but very much,

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Speaker 2: very broadly into the lithium sector itself.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is coming up after the show, so stick

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Speaker 1: around for that one now. Sean checking international markets thanks

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Speaker 1: to blue Chip Communication, the experts helping financial services companies market,

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Speaker 1: communicate and grow. Visit blue Chip Communication, dot Com, dot

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Speaker 1: AU all happening on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: Sean, Yeah, so Wall Street jumped yesterday after minutes from

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve meeting suggested more rate cuts are coming.

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Speaker 2: The broad based SMP five hundred to hit an all

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Speaker 2: time record following the release, meaning it has hit a

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Speaker 2: new high forty four times this year. Pretty incredible. The

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Speaker 2: Fed minutes from its September policy meeting when it reduced

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Speaker 2: rates by half percentage point, revealed that while a substantial

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Speaker 2: majority of participants voted for the outsized move, some had

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Speaker 2: argued that accord of a percentage point cut would have

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Speaker 2: been enough. All officials agreed it was appropriate to reduce

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Speaker 2: borrowing costs. So the take from that rates could continue well,

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Speaker 2: rates will continue falling into the US. The timing is

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Speaker 2: what it's all about, and maybe it'll be sooner than

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Speaker 2: people expected.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he wouldn't want to be shellfish and kind of

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Speaker 1: hold out.

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Speaker 2: That's very good. That is very good.

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Speaker 1: I actually loathe myself right now. Anyway, we'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 1: Sean the value of residential real estate in Australia has

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Speaker 1: pushed beyond eleven trillion dollars for the first time. That

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Speaker 1: is up by nine hundred billion dollars over the last year.

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Speaker 2: Hard to get your head around those numbers. It would

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Speaker 2: have been more but for slow growth in home values

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Speaker 2: over the September quarter, just one percent across the nation

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Speaker 2: according to core Logic, taking the annual pace of price

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Speaker 2: rises to six point seven percent. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth

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Speaker 2: dwelling values are currently at record highs, but certainly the

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Speaker 2: market is cooling. Days on market have increased to thirty

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Speaker 2: two days in the September quarter, up from twenty nine days.

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Speaker 2: In the Dune Court have vended. Discounting is steady at

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Speaker 2: four percent, on just a touchdown to four percent, while

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Speaker 2: the number of listings is now above the historical average.

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Speaker 2: For the current week. When we're in which ends on

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Speaker 2: Saturday night, two thousand six hundred and twenty one homes

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Speaker 2: are going to auction across the capital cities. It's the

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Speaker 2: sixth busiest week of the year. We have seen very

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Speaker 2: I don't know, sort of soft auction clearance traits in

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Speaker 2: the past couple of weeks. This is the big test

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Speaker 2: this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly is now mentioned this one at the top

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Speaker 1: of the show Seawan. Some of the world's biggest ETF

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Speaker 1: providers have started offering defense ETFs on the ASX, capitalizing

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Speaker 1: on heightened international tensions and booming military spending.

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Speaker 2: Global IX and Beta Shares this week launched defense ETFs

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Speaker 2: exchange traded Funds and van necklisted its version last month.

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Speaker 2: Global defense spending has climbed for nine consecutive years, reaching

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Speaker 2: a record two point four trillion US dollars last year

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Speaker 2: according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. By twenty thirty,

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Speaker 2: the industry is expected to grow another forty percent to

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Speaker 2: three point one trillion US dollars. Hence, there's an investment

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Speaker 2: opportunity albert One with some uncomfortable undertones some people. Vanneck

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Speaker 2: launched a global defense fund in Europe last year and

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Speaker 2: has replicated it on the ISx. Bdshar's ETF provides exposure

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Speaker 2: to up to sixty companies which drive at least half

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Speaker 2: their revenues from the development and manufacture of military and

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Speaker 2: defense equipment, So Lockheed Martin's one, BAE Systems, General Dynamics,

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Speaker 2: Palanteer Technologies, there are all companies involved in that area.

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Speaker 2: You can now invest in war.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, it looks like a May federal election is

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Speaker 1: a pretty good bet. After the government officially brought forward

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five budget.

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Speaker 2: The release of the twenty twenty five parliamentary schedule yesterday

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Speaker 2: shows the budget, which is normally the first Tuesday in May,

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Speaker 2: will be handed down on March twenty five, and as

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Speaker 2: a bit of a precedent for this, both the twenty

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Speaker 2: nineteen and twenty twenty two budgets were brought forward to

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Speaker 2: allow a May election. In both cases, the election was

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Speaker 2: announced after the budget once Parliament's dissire. Once an election

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Speaker 2: is called, rits are issued for the election. There's a

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Speaker 2: minimum of thirty three days needed before the poll can

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Speaker 2: actually take place. So if the timetable outlined yesterday is

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Speaker 2: followed and there's no indication it won't be followed, the

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Speaker 2: earliest an election could be held post the budget is

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Speaker 2: May three. The latest is March seventeen, so May three,

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Speaker 2: May ten, May seventeen.

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Speaker 1: And the big question really is whether the government can

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Speaker 1: claw its way to victory. And that's my last one

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Speaker 1: of my start. We will move on with some haste

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Speaker 1: ASX listed Y producer, Australian Vintage, the company behind the

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Speaker 1: mcgwigan and Tempest two labels, has re hired the chief

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Speaker 1: executive it's sacked for a lack of judgment less than

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Speaker 1: six months ago. This is an interesting one.

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Speaker 2: It is so Craig Garvin, who left in May, has

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Speaker 2: returned to the company under a new board and said

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Speaker 2: he's not bitter about his past treatment. According to reporting

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Speaker 2: the fin Review, Australian Vintage never detailed why mister Garvin

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Speaker 2: was removed, saying in a statement he displayed a lack

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Speaker 2: of judgment inconsistent with the values of the company. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: mister Garvin said, and I quired, the past is the past,

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Speaker 2: it's upwards and onward.

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Speaker 1: Hmmm, it's busting out more cliches than me.

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Speaker 2: He said he'd focus on rebuilding Australian Vintage as a

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Speaker 2: share price, which has fallen more than sixty percent in

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Speaker 2: six months. That's kind of the time he hasn't been there.

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Speaker 2: They got him back. It's pretty tough business the wine business.

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Speaker 2: Treasury Wine Estates, Australian Vintage's larger rival, has put its Wolfblast, Linderman's,

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Speaker 2: Yellow Glen and Blossom Hill brands on the market with

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Speaker 2: expectations that they could sell for a total of one

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars. The Australian wine industry is now worth

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Speaker 2: about five billion. Sixty percent of production is exported, but

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Speaker 2: Michael why that costs under ten dollars is still the

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Speaker 2: largest part of the domestic market.

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Speaker 1: This next one is pretty incredible. Sean goozmani Gomez one

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Speaker 1: of the hottest stocks on the ASX in recent months

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Speaker 1: and we've talked about it a lot. Said yesterday it

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Speaker 1: is on track to meet already bullish growth projections and

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Speaker 1: open more stores internationally. This growth is really quite something.

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Speaker 2: I think the share price growth is quite something. Listed

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Speaker 2: it's twenty two bucks, it is now worth almost thirty

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Speaker 2: nine bucks. I think that is something. The extra quarterly

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Speaker 2: sales update it was a first one yesterday since it's

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Speaker 2: Dune listing, and it said it was on track to

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Speaker 2: meet the prospectus forecast this financial year, including a target

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Speaker 2: of thirty one new restaurants in Australia. In the update,

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Speaker 2: Goodsman said sales growth was above expectations here in seaportant

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Speaker 2: in Japan it's core division, and it's being helped by

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Speaker 2: a new advertising campaign in demand for cheaper items. And

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Speaker 2: the cheap item that they mentioned was he twelve dollars

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Speaker 2: chicken mini meal. I don't think I have been to

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Speaker 2: a Gusman, but I don't know what twelve dollar chicken

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Speaker 2: mini meal is like. Anyway. Guzman now has two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty six stores around the world, up from two

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty at the end of June. One hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety nine of those are here in Australia.

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Speaker 1: If you go and try one hours research Sean, would

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Speaker 1: that be a tax deduction?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think so.

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Speaker 1: I think so.

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Speaker 2: Well you could ask carskadum Lang if you could actually

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Speaker 2: get a refund, like some sort.

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Speaker 1: Of expense claim it back against the business, you and

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Speaker 1: I doing it together.

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Speaker 2: How's he going to argue that.

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Speaker 1: It's a work meeting. It cots me go met. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Legislation upping the tax rate for earnings on superannuation balances

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Speaker 1: above three million dollars past the Lower House yesterday and

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Speaker 1: it'll go to the Senate with a fight expected from

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Speaker 1: the Greens.

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Speaker 2: Under the legislation, the tax rate on the earnings of

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Speaker 2: superannuation balances exceeding three million dollars will go from fifteen

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Speaker 2: percent to thirty percent. The government rejected a push by

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Speaker 2: Teal Independence to have the three million dollar cap indexed

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Speaker 2: to avoid bracket creep, basically more Australians being subject to

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Speaker 2: the tax over time. In the Senate, the government needs

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Speaker 2: at the support of the Greens and at least three

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Speaker 2: crossbenches to pass the legislation. The Greens have previously called

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Speaker 2: for the threshold for the new tax to be lowered

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Speaker 2: to two million dollars. Be a bit of battle there.

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Speaker 2: There's also contention over the rules being applied to unrealized

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Speaker 2: capital gains, which could force farmers and small business owners

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Speaker 2: who have assets like farms or business premises in their

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Speaker 2: smsfs to sell these assets to meet the new tax obligations.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now, Sean and the story that

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Speaker 1: everyone's been talking about. The pictures have been really quite terrifying.

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Speaker 1: Hurricane Milton slammed into Florida yesterday, bringing life threatening flooding

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Speaker 1: and leaving millions without power.

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Speaker 2: The cyclone made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County

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Speaker 2: as a Category three storm with winds of up to

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Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty kilometers an hour. According to the

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Speaker 2: US National Hurricane Center, its forecast remained at hurricane strength

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Speaker 2: while it moves across central Florida. The Center warned that

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Speaker 2: the storm would bring devastating rains and damaging winds with

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Speaker 2: life threatening gus tornadoes in storm surges of up to

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Speaker 2: thirteen foot that could inundate urban areas with flash flooding.

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Speaker 2: More than two million homes and businesses were without power.

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Speaker 2: Milton is the second major hurricane to hit the US

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Speaker 2: in a fortnight. It comes after Hurricane Helene reaked havoc

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Speaker 2: across several southeastern states, killing more than two hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty five people and destroying roads across North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Sean Portugal is planning to turn itself into a low

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Speaker 1: tax haven for young people by offering a decade of

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Speaker 1: tax breaks to people starting their careers in the country

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Speaker 1: in an effort to halt a growing brain drain.

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Speaker 2: The country. Center right government wants to reduce the income

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Speaker 2: tax burden on young people for ten years, including the

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Speaker 2: first year work no tax. Oh, that's a cracker. The

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Speaker 2: initiative on the lines the urgency of reversing a debilitating

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Speaker 2: outflow of young people who are leaving one of the

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Speaker 2: poist economies in Western Europe in search of better paid

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Speaker 2: jobs abroad. According to the Financial Times, Portuguese Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Louis Montenegro was due to announce the plan overnight. The

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Speaker 2: government is seeking to tackle a combination of high taxes,

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Speaker 2: low wages and high housing costs that are driving many

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Speaker 2: highly educated young people out of the country. Mister Montenegro

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Speaker 2: wants to keep more people in the country, and he

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Speaker 2: wants a tax system that is more youth friendly. This

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Speaker 2: idea is unprecedented as far as I can tell, They've

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Speaker 2: never been done before.

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Speaker 1: Very creative and unfortunately for both of us. Sean. But

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Speaker 1: even if we were to move there now, I think

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Speaker 1: we would be past that point. Well, you certainly would be.

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Speaker 2: I'd probably yeah, Decada two past it.

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Speaker 1: Thanks, Okay. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview,

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Speaker 1: and your guest today Sean is Francis Vadein from Vulcan.

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Speaker 2: Energy, all about lithium, what's happening in the sector, what's

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Speaker 2: happening with Vulcan the company itself, and we talk a

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Speaker 2: bit about the M and A activity and what's going on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he knows what he's talking about is the founder

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Speaker 1: and the executive chair of Vulcan Energy, So he knows

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Speaker 1: this space very very well, very well spoken gentlemen. Actually

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Speaker 1: it's a work backing voice. Yeah, ye, great voice for podcasts, Sean.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Thanks very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the eleventh of October twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.