1 00:00:03,930 --> 00:00:06,330 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:09,209 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Iron ore prices hit a three month low this 3 00:00:09,210 --> 00:00:11,849 Sean Aylmer: week. It's not good news for the big Australian miners, 4 00:00:11,849 --> 00:00:14,520 Sean Aylmer: especially when you consider just how central it is to 5 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,519 Sean Aylmer: their business. It's not that good for the Australian budget 6 00:00:17,579 --> 00:00:20,640 Sean Aylmer: either. At the same time, BHP has had to cut 7 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,578 Sean Aylmer: the value of its Brazilian assets. Also, it's written down 8 00:00:23,579 --> 00:00:27,090 Sean Aylmer: some of its Australian nickel operations. When we're talking commodities, 9 00:00:27,090 --> 00:00:29,160 Sean Aylmer: there's one person we go to at Fear and Greed. 10 00:00:29,250 --> 00:00:32,460 Sean Aylmer: Vivek Dhar is the director of mining and energy commodities 11 00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:35,579 Sean Aylmer: research at Commonwealth Bank. Vivek, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 12 00:00:35,579 --> 00:00:35,759 Vivek Dhar: Thank you. 13 00:00:37,830 --> 00:00:41,250 Sean Aylmer: So companies reporting, the miners reporting at the moment, we 14 00:00:41,310 --> 00:00:43,680 Sean Aylmer: thought we won't go through the companies per se, we're 15 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,800 Sean Aylmer: just interested in where commodities are up to at the 16 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,619 Sean Aylmer: moment. Because obviously, the price of commodities have such a 17 00:00:49,620 --> 00:00:53,969 Sean Aylmer: major role, and we saw with BHP's earnings, 77% of 18 00:00:53,969 --> 00:00:56,520 Sean Aylmer: its underlying earnings actually came from iron ore, for example, 19 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,190 Sean Aylmer: so big chunk of it. So can we run through 20 00:00:59,190 --> 00:01:02,670 Sean Aylmer: some of these commodities and just think about the outlook, 21 00:01:03,210 --> 00:01:05,399 Sean Aylmer: particularly given a few moves from China in the last 22 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,469 Sean Aylmer: few days as well. Let's start with iron ore. It's 23 00:01:07,469 --> 00:01:09,450 Sean Aylmer: a big one. We export more iron ore than anything 24 00:01:09,450 --> 00:01:12,000 Sean Aylmer: else. What do you think will happen to iron ore 25 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,030 Sean Aylmer: prices going forward given where they are at the moment? 26 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,060 Vivek Dhar: Sure. Look, in terms of our view of iron ore, 27 00:01:18,060 --> 00:01:21,659 Vivek Dhar: we actually started the year quite pessimistically on the outlook. 28 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,860 Vivek Dhar: We saw prices lift above $ 140 a ton at the 29 00:01:25,860 --> 00:01:29,129 Vivek Dhar: very beginning of this year. Since then, it has actually 30 00:01:29,129 --> 00:01:31,350 Vivek Dhar: come off, and this week it has been a more 31 00:01:31,350 --> 00:01:35,250 Vivek Dhar: material decline and we're just north of $ 120 a ton 32 00:01:35,250 --> 00:01:38,880 Vivek Dhar: now. Now, in our view, a more reasonable level for 33 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:43,438 Vivek Dhar: prices is about $ 100 to $110 a ton. The reason why we 34 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:47,249 Vivek Dhar: have maintained our pessimism has come down to what is 35 00:01:47,250 --> 00:01:51,150 Vivek Dhar: happening with steel mills in China. In particular, what is 36 00:01:51,150 --> 00:01:55,080 Vivek Dhar: happening with their margins. Now, these margins have turned quite 37 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,900 Vivek Dhar: negative, and the last time that they were this negative, 38 00:01:57,929 --> 00:02:00,809 Vivek Dhar: we actually saw iron ore prices crash. This was all 39 00:02:00,809 --> 00:02:03,629 Vivek Dhar: the way back in June and July 2022, and it 40 00:02:03,630 --> 00:02:07,320 Vivek Dhar: fell below $ 100 a ton. So because of negative steel 41 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,410 Vivek Dhar: mill margins, we think the outlook for iron ore is 42 00:02:10,410 --> 00:02:14,280 Vivek Dhar: something closer to $ 100 to $110 a ton, and so from spot 43 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,409 Vivek Dhar: levels, that suggests downside. 44 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,460 Sean Aylmer: Okay, having said all that, iron ore prices, even at 45 00:02:20,460 --> 00:02:27,389 Sean Aylmer: that $100 to $ 110 a ton still are, historically, fairly high, aren't 46 00:02:27,389 --> 00:02:30,150 Sean Aylmer: they? Because over the very long term they've been much 47 00:02:30,150 --> 00:02:32,519 Sean Aylmer: lower than that. I suppose I'm just basing that on 48 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,339 Sean Aylmer: what treasury forecasts have said for years and years. 49 00:02:35,910 --> 00:02:39,269 Vivek Dhar: Yeah, look, if you look at treasury forecasts, I would 50 00:02:39,270 --> 00:02:42,690 Vivek Dhar: say that's more of a budget view as opposed to 51 00:02:42,690 --> 00:02:46,080 Vivek Dhar: a forecast view, so they tend to be very, very 52 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,650 Vivek Dhar: conservative. But when you look at iron ore and you 53 00:02:49,650 --> 00:02:52,080 Vivek Dhar: want to trace back, how are we finding support at 54 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,530 Vivek Dhar: this $ 100 a ton plus mark? Particularly, when we talk 55 00:02:55,530 --> 00:02:59,219 Vivek Dhar: about these majors who have total cost of production to 56 00:02:59,219 --> 00:03:03,540 Vivek Dhar: deliver into China at about that $ 30 a ton mark, 57 00:03:04,350 --> 00:03:08,399 Vivek Dhar: these incredible margins that they're achieving. But the real reason 58 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,099 Vivek Dhar: why we're at this $ 100 a ton plus mark has 59 00:03:11,099 --> 00:03:13,919 Vivek Dhar: been that Vale, one of the biggest producers of iron 60 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,038 Vivek Dhar: ore, they had a dam collapse all the way back 61 00:03:17,038 --> 00:03:21,000 Vivek Dhar: in January 2019, and what has filled the gap because 62 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,330 Vivek Dhar: of their fall in production has been higher cost supply. 63 00:03:25,290 --> 00:03:28,888 Vivek Dhar: Therefore, we have seen markets have to accept higher prices. 64 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,900 Vivek Dhar: Hence, 100 to 110 makes sense for us. But if you take 65 00:03:33,900 --> 00:03:37,260 Vivek Dhar: away that high cost supply, you could justify materially lower 66 00:03:37,290 --> 00:03:39,330 Vivek Dhar: prices. But that's where the market is right now. 67 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,900 Sean Aylmer: Okay. Can we talk about coal, which is a forgotten 68 00:03:42,900 --> 00:03:45,540 Sean Aylmer: commodity in many ways in Australia. We had, a couple 69 00:03:45,540 --> 00:03:47,730 Sean Aylmer: of years ago, some of those coal companies did incredibly 70 00:03:47,730 --> 00:03:50,879 Sean Aylmer: well off the back of really high prices. That's come 71 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,430 Sean Aylmer: off now. What's the outlook for coal, our second biggest 72 00:03:53,430 --> 00:03:54,330 Sean Aylmer: export commodity? 73 00:03:56,040 --> 00:04:00,120 Vivek Dhar: Sure. Look, this is split by what's happening with thermal 74 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,780 Vivek Dhar: coal and coking coal, but when we look at say 75 00:04:03,780 --> 00:04:07,110 Vivek Dhar: something like coking coal, our reasonable price we would assume 76 00:04:07,110 --> 00:04:10,919 Vivek Dhar: is about say $ 200 to $250 a ton. Now, when we look 77 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,860 Vivek Dhar: at coking coal, we think that one of the biggest 78 00:04:13,860 --> 00:04:17,909 Vivek Dhar: drivers of this market over the medium term, which is 79 00:04:17,910 --> 00:04:20,370 Vivek Dhar: increasingly the case even in the short term, is India. 80 00:04:21,540 --> 00:04:24,960 Vivek Dhar: While India is building out its steel sector, and it's 81 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:28,560 Vivek Dhar: quite significant, they have big ambitions to be a larger 82 00:04:28,709 --> 00:04:33,270 Vivek Dhar: steel producer. Now, they have iron ore to meet what 83 00:04:33,270 --> 00:04:36,090 Vivek Dhar: they need to produce in terms of steel, but they 84 00:04:36,150 --> 00:04:39,359 Vivek Dhar: don't have high quality coking coal. As a result of 85 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,540 Vivek Dhar: that, they are emerging as a key buyer of not just 86 00:04:42,540 --> 00:04:45,539 Vivek Dhar: Australian, but global coking coal. And this is something that 87 00:04:45,540 --> 00:04:48,479 Vivek Dhar: is going to keep prices well- supported in our view 88 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,539 Vivek Dhar: this decade, in terms of the outlook of coking coal. 89 00:04:51,990 --> 00:04:55,229 Vivek Dhar: In terms of the decarbonization of steel, it is a 90 00:04:55,230 --> 00:04:58,440 Vivek Dhar: very challenging industry to really decarbonize and move away from 91 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,650 Vivek Dhar: coking coal. And really speaking, we'll have an idea of 92 00:05:02,099 --> 00:05:07,140 Vivek Dhar: which decarbonization technology wins the race probably by 2030 at the 93 00:05:07,230 --> 00:05:12,300 Vivek Dhar: earliest. So coking coal still has time, and it still has 94 00:05:12,300 --> 00:05:14,880 Vivek Dhar: needs in the market, and that's how we're viewing that 95 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:18,419 Vivek Dhar: space. When it comes to thermal coal, we've seen this 96 00:05:18,420 --> 00:05:23,069 Vivek Dhar: market really marry up with what's happening in LNG markets. 97 00:05:23,699 --> 00:05:27,270 Vivek Dhar: Both coal and LNG, they compete in the power space 98 00:05:27,660 --> 00:05:32,729 Vivek Dhar: for marginal power generation, particularly in Asia. So what happens 99 00:05:32,730 --> 00:05:35,880 Vivek Dhar: with LNG prices tends to then have a flow on 100 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:39,420 Vivek Dhar: impact on thermal coal prices. In terms of your outlook 101 00:05:40,109 --> 00:05:44,250 Vivek Dhar: for thermal coal, it's actually probably going to be tied 102 00:05:44,339 --> 00:05:47,159 Vivek Dhar: to what happens with Europe's gas situation in coming years. 103 00:05:48,630 --> 00:05:51,750 Vivek Dhar: What we've seen so far is Europe has had more 104 00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:55,289 Vivek Dhar: than enough gas and that has weighed more heavily on 105 00:05:55,290 --> 00:05:58,349 Vivek Dhar: thermal coal. On top of that, we've seen Europe move 106 00:05:58,410 --> 00:06:00,839 Vivek Dhar: more aggressively away from thermal coal over the last 6 107 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,110 Vivek Dhar: to 12 months. So it's a little more of a sombering 108 00:06:04,110 --> 00:06:08,099 Vivek Dhar: reality for thermal coal, but still very elevated, and still, 109 00:06:08,610 --> 00:06:12,989 Vivek Dhar: from a margin point of view from coal operators, it's 110 00:06:12,990 --> 00:06:13,770 Vivek Dhar: still quite positive. 111 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,378 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Vivek. We'll be back in a minute. 112 00:06:22,740 --> 00:06:25,589 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Vivek Dhar, director of mining 113 00:06:25,589 --> 00:06:31,169 Sean Aylmer: and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank. Okay, we've gone 114 00:06:31,170 --> 00:06:34,709 Sean Aylmer: six minutes into this interview and not mentioned nickel or 115 00:06:34,709 --> 00:06:38,040 Sean Aylmer: lithium, which I reckon is a pretty good effort. However, 116 00:06:38,310 --> 00:06:41,400 Sean Aylmer: nickel and lithium, what's going to happen? Will there be 117 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,010 Sean Aylmer: a recovery? I mean, we have seen the government step 118 00:06:44,010 --> 00:06:46,380 Sean Aylmer: in and try and support, I think it's nickel prices. 119 00:06:46,559 --> 00:06:51,540 Sean Aylmer: We have seen lithium miners closing or mothballing mines. Where 120 00:06:51,540 --> 00:06:53,339 Sean Aylmer: are we going with those two commodities? 121 00:06:54,990 --> 00:06:58,860 Vivek Dhar: Nickel, it's a very complicated picture, but if I had to 122 00:06:58,860 --> 00:07:01,979 Vivek Dhar: say, what is the difference amongst a number of commodities, 123 00:07:01,979 --> 00:07:06,270 Vivek Dhar: and in particular nickel, is that it is facing a 124 00:07:06,270 --> 00:07:10,979 Vivek Dhar: structural change in terms of how nickel is applied. What 125 00:07:10,980 --> 00:07:14,400 Vivek Dhar: we're seeing coming out of Indonesia has been nothing short 126 00:07:14,460 --> 00:07:19,050 Vivek Dhar: of just incredible and game changing. They have completely reworked 127 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,429 Vivek Dhar: supply to the point of being able to supply the 128 00:07:23,700 --> 00:07:27,870 Vivek Dhar: required nickel for the battery sector. In a way of 129 00:07:27,870 --> 00:07:30,840 Vivek Dhar: using a certain type of nickel ore, which no one 130 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,560 Vivek Dhar: really thought they would be capable of doing at the 131 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:38,820 Vivek Dhar: low cost that they managed. This market is now flooded 132 00:07:39,090 --> 00:07:44,520 Vivek Dhar: with enough nickel for stainless steel, which accounts for 60% to 65% 133 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:48,600 Vivek Dhar: of nickel demand, and even for the battery sector, which 134 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:53,040 Vivek Dhar: is now around 15% of nickel demand. So when we 135 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,940 Vivek Dhar: look at nickel, I'd say Indonesia has completely done a 136 00:07:56,940 --> 00:08:01,200 Vivek Dhar: step change. The biggest concern that we have right now 137 00:08:01,710 --> 00:08:05,129 Vivek Dhar: is all your long run price assumptions for nickel are 138 00:08:05,129 --> 00:08:08,790 Vivek Dhar: being revised down lower, just given that everyone is now 139 00:08:08,790 --> 00:08:11,580 Vivek Dhar: factoring in what Indonesia has put in. That puts enormous 140 00:08:11,580 --> 00:08:15,780 Vivek Dhar: pressure on Australian supply and whether Australian supply can compete 141 00:08:16,110 --> 00:08:18,720 Vivek Dhar: in an environment flooded with that Indonesian nickel. 142 00:08:19,650 --> 00:08:20,340 Sean Aylmer: And lithium? 143 00:08:21,510 --> 00:08:24,690 Vivek Dhar: Look, lithium, I would say it is more on the 144 00:08:24,690 --> 00:08:28,950 Vivek Dhar: cyclical side. This is an incredible boom and bust story, 145 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,890 Vivek Dhar: and it's really the story of what happens with nascent 146 00:08:31,890 --> 00:08:35,910 Vivek Dhar: commodities when it starts emerging. The issue here though is 147 00:08:36,420 --> 00:08:40,049 Vivek Dhar: we do expect nickel and lithium, but lithium in particular, 148 00:08:40,109 --> 00:08:44,250 Vivek Dhar: the recovery to happen. The problem is that you have 149 00:08:44,250 --> 00:08:47,430 Vivek Dhar: a lot of supply waiting in the background. Right now, 150 00:08:47,910 --> 00:08:51,809 Vivek Dhar: demand has slowed for lithium, that's been clear. But when 151 00:08:51,809 --> 00:08:55,830 Vivek Dhar: we talk about slowdown, I'll take China for example, we're 152 00:08:55,830 --> 00:08:59,249 Vivek Dhar: taking EV sales were, say 80%, year- on- year in 153 00:08:59,250 --> 00:09:04,020 Vivek Dhar: 2022, in 2023, it was 25% year- on- year. Now, that's 154 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,848 Vivek Dhar: a slowdown. But you'd take 25% year- on- year if 155 00:09:08,849 --> 00:09:11,550 Vivek Dhar: it was any other market. But supply had just gotten 156 00:09:11,550 --> 00:09:15,210 Vivek Dhar: so far ahead of the curve that 25% year- on- 157 00:09:15,210 --> 00:09:18,750 Vivek Dhar: year is considered a bad demand year. That's really what 158 00:09:18,750 --> 00:09:23,010 Vivek Dhar: has made lithium suffer, is that the supply just has 159 00:09:23,010 --> 00:09:26,400 Vivek Dhar: outpaced. And now there's latent capacity. So even if we 160 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,880 Vivek Dhar: see prices rebound, you have probably supply in the background 161 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,249 Vivek Dhar: that can come online in the next two years. So 162 00:09:32,250 --> 00:09:34,889 Vivek Dhar: this oversupply, in our view, is at least going to 163 00:09:34,889 --> 00:09:37,170 Vivek Dhar: persist for at least two years looking ahead. 164 00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:41,130 Sean Aylmer: Okay. Vivek, I'm looking for some good news here. You 165 00:09:41,130 --> 00:09:43,890 Sean Aylmer: haven't done much in terms of coal, or iron ore, 166 00:09:43,890 --> 00:09:47,759 Sean Aylmer: or nickel, or lithium. What about uranium? That seems to 167 00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:50,550 Sean Aylmer: be a commodity that does have some friends around the place. 168 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:55,530 Vivek Dhar: Yeah, look, with uranium, it is a story of supply 169 00:09:55,530 --> 00:10:01,080 Vivek Dhar: disappointment from both Canada and Kazakhstan. But I would say 170 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:05,130 Vivek Dhar: the biggest driver has been the demand hopes. This is 171 00:10:05,130 --> 00:10:08,309 Vivek Dhar: something that is coming through more in terms of the 172 00:10:08,309 --> 00:10:13,350 Vivek Dhar: promise, in my view, of small modular nuclear reactors. This 173 00:10:13,379 --> 00:10:17,429 Vivek Dhar: is something that can potentially change the nuclear market, and 174 00:10:17,429 --> 00:10:20,070 Vivek Dhar: something that is still very much emerging and being understood, 175 00:10:20,639 --> 00:10:24,598 Vivek Dhar: but the demand potential from that part of the market 176 00:10:24,719 --> 00:10:29,190 Vivek Dhar: is what would really cause supply demand imbalance. But I 177 00:10:29,190 --> 00:10:31,500 Vivek Dhar: would say that the key reasons, particularly of late, that 178 00:10:31,500 --> 00:10:34,950 Vivek Dhar: we've seen prices rise has been that supply just hasn't 179 00:10:34,950 --> 00:10:39,150 Vivek Dhar: been able to match expectations, and that's what's tightened this 180 00:10:39,150 --> 00:10:42,990 Vivek Dhar: market more than otherwise. So uranium has been a standout 181 00:10:43,230 --> 00:10:44,010 Vivek Dhar: from that perspective. 182 00:10:45,270 --> 00:10:48,358 Sean Aylmer: Okay. I mean, in my following of this as a 183 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,108 Sean Aylmer: reporter, we have talked about super cycles in commodities. I'm 184 00:10:52,110 --> 00:10:53,970 Sean Aylmer: guessing that we're not in a super cycle, and in 185 00:10:53,970 --> 00:10:57,000 Sean Aylmer: fact, I don't know whether we are in a super trough or 186 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,450 Sean Aylmer: anything like that, but where are we in the cycle 187 00:11:00,450 --> 00:11:02,848 Sean Aylmer: for commodities? I know the answer is, depends on the 188 00:11:02,849 --> 00:11:05,098 Sean Aylmer: commodity, but we're not in a super cycle at the 189 00:11:05,100 --> 00:11:06,240 Sean Aylmer: moment, I suppose, is my question? 190 00:11:07,500 --> 00:11:12,179 Vivek Dhar: Look, super cycles are the most interesting part of how 191 00:11:12,179 --> 00:11:14,399 Vivek Dhar: we look at commodities, and it is very difficult to 192 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,400 Vivek Dhar: know at any single point whether we're in one, because 193 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:21,299 Vivek Dhar: it is so long- dated. We are talking multi- decade 194 00:11:21,299 --> 00:11:24,510 Vivek Dhar: view of when or how long a cycle can be. 195 00:11:25,260 --> 00:11:27,328 Vivek Dhar: So if you look in history, there's really been three. 196 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:32,040 Vivek Dhar: We've seen the American industrialization early 20th century, post- war 197 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,848 Vivek Dhar: Europe and Japan we saw another commodity supercycle, and then 198 00:11:35,849 --> 00:11:41,730 Vivek Dhar: of course China. Now, historically, they've all involved energy metals 199 00:11:41,879 --> 00:11:45,689 Vivek Dhar: and agricultural commodities. When we talk about a supercycle today, 200 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,500 Vivek Dhar: we are talking about exceptionalism, because we are not saying 201 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,340 Vivek Dhar: every commodity, we are saying the ones needed for the 202 00:11:53,340 --> 00:11:57,030 Vivek Dhar: energy transition. So we're saying no to oil and your 203 00:11:57,030 --> 00:12:00,720 Vivek Dhar: typical fossil fuels, and we're saying yes to things like 204 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:05,040 Vivek Dhar: lithium, nickel, copper, aluminum, a lot of these metals that 205 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:09,059 Vivek Dhar: are needed in the transition. So this is now where 206 00:12:09,300 --> 00:12:12,870 Vivek Dhar: the market is positioning. But if you look at, say, 207 00:12:12,870 --> 00:12:18,179 Vivek Dhar: Australia's investment pipeline of projects, if we talked about the 208 00:12:18,179 --> 00:12:20,728 Vivek Dhar: peak of the China boom, we were north of 200 209 00:12:20,730 --> 00:12:23,970 Vivek Dhar: billion in a single year, we'd be lucky to be 210 00:12:23,970 --> 00:12:27,569 Vivek Dhar: 40 to 60 billion by the end of this decade. So 211 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:31,590 Vivek Dhar: this cycle that we talk about, it is certainly not 212 00:12:31,740 --> 00:12:34,649 Vivek Dhar: looking to be as beneficial to Australia because we're not 213 00:12:34,650 --> 00:12:37,890 Vivek Dhar: seeing the CapEx hit as aggressively. Now, that can change. 214 00:12:38,220 --> 00:12:42,360 Vivek Dhar: We can move towards further downstream processing. We can certainly 215 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,809 Vivek Dhar: then look potentially at hydrogen. These are both avenues that 216 00:12:45,809 --> 00:12:49,140 Vivek Dhar: can lift our CapEx significantly. But in terms of what 217 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,420 Vivek Dhar: we're seeing right now, yeah, it's very hard to say 218 00:12:51,809 --> 00:12:55,260 Vivek Dhar: with conviction that we're in a super cycle right now. 219 00:12:56,070 --> 00:12:58,140 Sean Aylmer: Vivek, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 220 00:12:58,500 --> 00:12:58,860 Vivek Dhar: Thank you. 221 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:03,630 Sean Aylmer: That was Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research 222 00:13:03,630 --> 00:13:06,450 Sean Aylmer: at Commonwealth Bank. This is the Fear and Greed daily 223 00:13:06,450 --> 00:13:08,699 Sean Aylmer: interview. Join us every morning for the full episode of 224 00:13:08,700 --> 00:13:11,910 Sean Aylmer: Fear and Greed, Australia's most popular business podcast. I'm Sean 225 00:13:11,910 --> 00:13:13,319 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Enjoy your day.