WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 5 May 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:05.080 From the Skying Center. This is Paul Burray Live. 0:00:06.519 --> 0:00:08.319 Hello, let's hang out on a Monday night in the 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:10.920 man Cave. I wonder if we'll talk about the election. 0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:12.680 Yeah, of course, how can we not. 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:16.240 After the disastrous night for the Coalition, a night of 0:00:16.239 --> 0:00:18.640 incredible success for the Labor Party. 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:21.080 Not easy to say, but that's the way it is. 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:21.480 All right. 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:23.760 We'll get into all of that with, of course none 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:26.560 other than James Morrow, and also with Matt can Evan. 0:00:26.680 --> 0:00:30.479 Looking forward to that conversation. Also the wonderful Pauline Hanson. 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:32.760 Now across the country. The vote did go up, not 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:34.720 as much as some polls may have suggested. But but 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:36.640 but but but and I'll get into this in a 0:00:36.640 --> 0:00:38.560 bit more detail. On a second, there is a massive 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.360 chance that Lee Hanson is going to beat Jackie Lamby 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:43.040 for the Senate spot. There is an asterisk on that. 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:45.199 We'll talk about that in the second. But Pauline is 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:48.280 on the show tonight now, last night on the program, 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:50.960 I'm winning great detail on my thoughts and the future 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:53.640 and all the rest of that. I'll relive some of 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:56.080 those for you in case you were watching footy or 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.760 maybe missed this on the Sunday night. But I want 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.120 to move to a couple of the silver linings that 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:03.160 do come out. 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:04.800 Of the horrible result for those. 0:01:04.680 --> 0:01:07.279 Of us who wanted to see a changing of governor, 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:08.000 at the very least it. 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.440 Being put into minority. And here we go. 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.800 Number one, the Greens have gone backwards. You know this, 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.320 I know this, but it's good to double check because 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:19.240 Adam Bant is right on the line about whether he 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:21.679 is going to lose his seat or not in the 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.000 seat of Melbourne. Now remember Melbourne had been previously a 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:27.520 pretty hardcore Labor seat and then became a massive Green 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:30.320 seat for a while. It's got way more people under 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:34.080 the age of fifty than over. But Adam band is 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:36.679 in a world of pain. And guess who he is 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:40.920 blaming for not preferencing him when his entire campaign was 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:44.240 about keeping Dutton out a. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:46.400 Number of the lower House seats. Of course, in now 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.440 three three cornered contests, and so when there is a 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:55.360 bit shift from labor to liberala from liberal to labor, 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:58.920 it has flown through consequences. 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.680 Yeah, this is part of the problem for the Liberal 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.880 Party in seats where they're not going to win, do 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.840 they make the decision to preference the Greens to deny 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:11.959 the Labor Party a seat, or do they preference the 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.760 Labor Party, who of course end up getting a seat 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:18.080 and growing their seat count over the number that the 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.440 coalition is trying to. 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:21.560 Get at an election. 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:23.959 On a moral sense, I would prefer to have a 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.359 Labor MP than a Greens MP. But there is an 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:27.600 electoral consequence to. 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:27.960 All of this. 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.240 So let's have a look at the latest numbers on 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:33.560 the counting which closed not long ago. Now, as you 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:36.760 can see on the primary votes right now, Adam bantered 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.200 twenty nine thousand, Labor at twenty two thousand. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:41.480 Now, assuming that. 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.360 Everyone followed the how to vote, you can start to 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:48.200 add the thirteen thousand to the twenty two thousand, and 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:50.520 that's when you start to get into the two horse 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:55.959 race right now, which shows fairly obviously, but right now 0:02:56.800 --> 0:02:59.760 the Labor Party is in front. Now those numbers there 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:03.000 when you see about three hundred and three thousand votes 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:07.200 or two thousand votes, obviously that hasn't matched the primary 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.400 vote numbers. But the most important thing to notice here 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:11.600 is that if Labour wins, it will be because of 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:14.480 the Liberal preferences and basically What will happen to the 0:03:14.480 --> 0:03:17.160 Greens is what happens to the Libs in most places 0:03:17.480 --> 0:03:20.480 where Labor and the Greens get together to knock them off. 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.040 Fingers crossed, that is what it's on its way. Number two, 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:28.280 The wonderful die League was re elected to the Federal Parliament. 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:32.160 How good to see that she is back in the 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.800 position that she is as the Member for Fowler. She 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.480 did something spectacular this weekend in the. 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:40.600 Seat of Fowler. 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.760 She had an increase in her overall vote, which was 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:47.520 pretty damn impressive to see that she had an increase. 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:49.000 Let's maybe perhaps. 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:51.240 Drop the graphics, put it all in order and I'll 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:52.680 just talk things through if that's okay. 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:54.560 So Dielee was able to win. 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.000 Most importantly, she increased her vote on the vote that 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.120 defeated Christina Kanneely only speaking when it comes to independence, 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:08.440 be they die Le Variety or Rebecca Sharky or Andrew 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:12.280 Wilkie or Bob Cutter, if you're able to get re elected, 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.760 then you are basically going to hold onto the seat 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:16.800 for as long as you can. Now there is a 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.720 further extension to that in the seat that formerly was 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:23.720 held by the National Party, and then an independent of 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.640 Kath McGowan. She ended up taking that seat over and 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:28.960 when she retired she was able to essentially hand her 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:33.360 operation to the next generation in her seat being Helen Haynes. 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:37.200 So what becomes an independent seat may well often end 0:04:37.320 --> 0:04:39.159 up as an independent seat. 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:40.240 So that's good there. 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.200 Number three. The Victorian Teals are in trouble. Latest numbers 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:46.760 tonight are fascinating to watch. Where you can take your 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:50.440 pick here where Zoe Daniel looks like she is currently 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.040 less than one hundred votes in front of Tim Wilson. 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:56.200 The postal votes, which generally skew very pro labor, they're 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:59.640 very pro liberal, might be the big difference there. Monique Ryan, 0:04:59.680 --> 0:05:02.600 who was celebrating things on Saturday night, she's now turning 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.360 around and saying this thing is back into the. 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:08.120 Too close to call category. Good deceive fingers crossed, but. 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.880 Expect the worst and be surprised if anything else happens. 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:14.839 We'll see what happens whether the Victorian Tales are going 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.880 to suffer. Clyde Palmer is promising to go away from 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.480 Australian politics. The polite spinat it is that he says 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:24.880 he's too old to be involved in politics. Anymore. We 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:26.920 all know the ads, we all know the text messages, 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:28.839 and we all know what the result was, less than 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:33.040 two percent of the vote. I've got plenty to say 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:34.680 about some of the behavior of some of the people 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.480 and how they have reacted, but let's focus on what 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:41.000 the money man says behind all of this. I'm seventy 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:42.800 one and I'm getting too old for politics. I'd rather 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:45.160 spend my time helping out tens of thousands that are 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:47.120 homeless and hungry in this country, and that's why I've 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.000 donated five million dollars to Food Back. And like all 0:05:50.040 --> 0:05:54.000 looth Clyde Palmer, I absolutely admire that of all of 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:55.680 the people that were in this election, he was the 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.400 only one consistently talking about that problem of too many 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:03.080 people more than three million household so multiple people on 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:05.320 top of that, who of course run out of food 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:06.960 by the end of each and every week. He didn't 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:08.520 just talk about it, he just run on it. He's 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:10.240 put some money into it, and he now says that 0:06:10.279 --> 0:06:13.359 his future is in philanthropy. Now, who knows whether he 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.320 changes his mind with one year to go or six 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:16.800 months to go, And it's his money to do with 0:06:16.839 --> 0:06:18.720 what he wants. But Claparmer says he's out of the 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:20.960 game and the laws that are going to change that 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:22.320 are going to make it harder for him to run 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.080 the type of campaign he has for the past couple 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.719 of elections will also apply to the Teals in the 0:06:26.760 --> 0:06:28.160 next couple of elections. 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:29.640 All of that will be. 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:32.640 To the advantage of the two major parties with the 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.760 flow on effect to the existing independence as opposed to 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.760 the ones who may want to grow the pie. And 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:41.560 the fifth most interesting thing, and it is a silver lining, 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:43.560 but it isn't a full silver lining yet. 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:45.279 It is just the faint outlines of one. 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.560 But still there is a chance Jackie Lamby's going to 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:50.320 lose her seat. If she does, she'll be losing it 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.840 to Lee Hanson. Lee Hanson's lived in Tasmani for a 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:55.599 long time but obviously has only put her hand up 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.159 in politics and in a political sense in the past 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:01.640 few months. Jack Lamby's vote comes from the north of 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:06.840 Tasmania and her vote, according to the latest numbers, was 0:07:06.960 --> 0:07:10.600 down at the last election that this election just gone, 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:15.280 the One Nation vote it was up and basically it's 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:19.600 lamby six point nine percent to One Nation's five point 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:22.720 three percent. But why is there a chance Jackie Lamby 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.600 loses a seat. Well, as you'll see at that number 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:32.720 there the quota, all right, so you get one seat? 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:35.880 Point how much is left over? Okay, so you will 0:07:35.920 --> 0:07:39.760 see there that the number for the Liberals is currently 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.360 at one and a half. Now, if you go and 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:44.640 have a look at their how to vote card, it 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.000 would mean that if they don't get the second seat, 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:50.800 whatever they get over the one, it moves to their 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:54.200 second preference. And that, according to the how to vote 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:57.880 was one nation, So there could be about half a 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:01.040 quota of a Senate seat that is out there four 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:06.280 Pauline Hanson and Lee Hanson. Now the One Nation party 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.440 is currently at point three seven of a quota. That 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.920 half a percent will take them to the eight you 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:15.680 know too, point eight. Then when you throw in other 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.760 preferences that might be around there, that's why it might 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.400 get a little bit closer. If Jackie Lamby runs away 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.240 with it, it will be because she was number two 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:28.360 on the Labor how to vote card. So, as you 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:31.000 can see, left over in the Labor vote was two 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:36.280 point four to seven. So Lamby currently sitting at zero 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:40.040 point four eight of one quota plus the overhang of 0:08:40.120 --> 0:08:44.559 labor puts her basically that same position about zero point eight, 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.600 and then a whole bunch of other things where we 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.280 work out what people did with their second, third, fourth, fifth, 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:53.920 and sixths. Well, all of that comes into play, including 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:55.800 people who voted below the line. We'll talk to Pauline 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.839 Hanson about that in a moment or two time. 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:02.600 Now, let's be honest. 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:04.760 The only thing that's going to hurt Anthony Aberzi most 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:06.800 likely for the next three years. But let's be generous 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:10.080 and say the first year of his second time as 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:12.880 Prime Minister and second term as Prime Minister is going 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.679 to be well what he does with the size of 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:16.200 his win. 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:20.400 Not for thirty five years as a labor prime minister 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:21.319 pulled this off. 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:24.439 Anthony Alberzi going back to bat. 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.560 He becomes the first leader to clincher's second consecutive term 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:32.400 in twenty one years and does so with an increased majority. 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:35.360 The first PM since John Howard back in two thousand 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:38.280 and four to win reelection and the first government in 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:42.760 seventy five years to actually increase its majority in a 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:44.679 first term, a powerful mandate. 0:09:45.760 --> 0:09:49.800 So obviously Australia has given him not just a little win. 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:51.480 They have given him a big one, which means he 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:53.440 has a big back bench, which means he can start 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.040 to be bolder, and theoretically, electoral gravity at some point 0:09:57.120 --> 0:10:00.560 means eventually you start to lose seats, and having way 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.280 more than the necessary seventy six means you can afford 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.480 to burn some of the backbench, as John Howard did 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:08.559 when it came to the Big Idea in the nineteen 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.080 ninety eight election on the GST. That re was alded 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:14.560 in the Labor Party getting the majority of the popular vote, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:18.840 but the Liberal Party still maintained the majority of seats. 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:21.920 Now again, we can't say what happened three elections ago 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:25.280 is what happens in one or two elections time. We're 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.360 not really in the red and blue game anymore. We 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:29.760 know that there's the red, the blue and a bit. 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:31.040 Of a rainbow in between. 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:33.360 And I thought the Prime Minister was off to a 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:37.080 reasonable start when it came to when inevitably hardcore Labour 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.800 people were going to start booing or cheering that Peter 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:41.920 Dunton had lost his seat, and I liked that he 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:42.920 called them out from the stage. 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.120 Don't do that, we don't do that. That's not Australian values. 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:46.400 Now I know in his heart of hearts and his 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.480 hard partisan he would have been a generation ago the 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:51.320 type of person who was yelling out from the floor, 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:53.840 ding dong and all the rest of it. But it 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:55.600 was a good thing the Prime Minister didn't do it. 0:10:56.640 --> 0:10:58.280 But then he got back to camberd to day and 0:10:58.320 --> 0:10:59.000 we saw. 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.960 Just a little, just a little little. 0:11:01.679 --> 0:11:04.840 Little sign of the bloke who thinks that he is invincible. 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.199 Ask a question at a press conference. Watch his reaction 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:10.840 and of course a very well trained media who don't 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:12.560 want to upset him, don't want to get cut off 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:16.120 from the information teet that is the Prime Minister's office. 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:18.040 They're going to play nice. But what's what the Prime 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:20.640 Minister does when you ask him a question he doesn't 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:21.439 want to asked? 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:23.640 Well, just nonsense. 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.440 As you were told yesterday, Greg, you know people who 0:11:26.440 --> 0:11:30.200 have got to stop. You know, the only person who 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:33.520 knows is me. You were told by my office yesterday 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:40.680 that was nonsense. The words are coming out, mate, with respect? 0:11:40.920 --> 0:11:41.880 Are we expecting your favorite? 0:11:42.080 --> 0:11:42.200 Now? 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:47.040 Look, I've said I respect the caucus. I respect the caucus, 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:50.440 but I say to all of you, if you hear something, 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.120 it is unless it comes out of my mouth, it 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:57.520 is nonsense. And you know you were told that yesterday. 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:00.880 Now things can change quickly, but there is no sign 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.360 of that changing quickly anytime, most likely in the next 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.679 couple of terms of parliament. Realistic about that, but you've 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:07.320 always got. 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:07.640 To be careful. 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:11.040 Remember the way the poor Keating behaved when he got 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.960 an extra three years he didn't expect. And the nature 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.200 of this victory is that Anthony Abernezi is looking at 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.839 multiple terms that are in front of him. It'll be 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:22.000 fascinating to see not just what he does and how 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.080 he behaves, but more importantly some of his ministers. His 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:28.800 ministers think that they are the political geniuses who know 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.520 everything about policy, everything about politics, and everything about social media. 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:34.760 Reality is, it was, of course, the performance of the 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:37.480 leader and the performance of the machine that is the 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.480 Labor Party that turned things around, not to mention a 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:43.760 whole bunch of things that nobody could have ever expected, 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:49.640 like tariffs, like the pope dying, like cyclones. But none 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.600 of that is to ignore from the reality that he won, 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.560 and he won big, and yes, we will hold him 0:12:56.600 --> 0:13:01.440 to account by using facts as well as what we 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.120 believe in to hold him to account, but I'm not 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:06.920 going to pretend that it's all going to change anytime soon. 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.120 It obviously doesn't, and Australia has made it very clear 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.160 that they want him to be the Prime minister for 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.480 the next little while. So last night, again on the show, 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.360 I took a great amount of time to try to 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:21.640 be as considered as possible about how millions of people 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.439 are feeling. And millions of people are upset because the 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:26.599 result wasn't the one that they wanted. But millions of 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.160 people are always upset by the result, regardless of who 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:32.720 ends up winning, because previously half now a third of 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:37.120 the country doesn't get what it wants. So I explained 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.280 in great detail, and it's up at skynews dot com 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:41.200 dot a U, and it's on our YouTube channel, the 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:43.240 five ideas that I have for the future in and 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:46.280 around the Liberal Party. Now, obviously they are the organization 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:49.120 and we the voter make the decision whether we trust 0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:52.040 the organization and the politicians. But my free advice, and 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.120 it's worth what it's paid for sometimes is that they 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.880 need to take time to be honest about what happened. 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:00.160 Do just tick and flick a quick little revie you 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.240 and do nothing about it, follow through on some of 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:04.080 the things that are actually put in there. In fact, 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.720 most of them also, in my suggestion, have multiple reviews 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:10.120 coming from lots of different angles. You don't just have 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:11.600 to learn a lesson, you have to be seen to 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:13.080 be learning a lesson. So why not go and have 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.720 town halls all around the country in the places that 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.719 you lost, and find out why you're going to meet 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:20.560 the people where they are. This idea that it's just 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.080 an arm wrestle and eventually you can pull people in 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:24.280 the direction you want them to go. 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:25.560 It's just not true. 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:28.120 You have to meet people where they are, and where 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.480 they are in twenty twenty five will be different than 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:35.320 twenty nineteen. That will be different than two and thirteen. 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.520 It'll be different than two thousand and seven. It'll be 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:44.800 different that all of those major clean breaks in elections. Also, 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:47.120 I think they really should think very hard about empowering 0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:50.160 that next generation, listening to the younger voices inside the party, 0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:51.960 not just nodding and saying now go out and do 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:53.640 the hat of votes. Why not try and lift their 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.840 voices up into the decision making thing. And also, everything's 0:14:57.880 --> 0:14:59.560 got to be on the table I'm talking about everything 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.920 from the low go to the quotas to the policy areas. 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.200 All of it should be officially reset by whomever ends 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.840 up being the leader, which brings us to those most 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.720 likely or those who we think are going to be 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.920 most likely. Interestingly, you have not heard an awful lot 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.520 from these people in terms of their own voices and 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.920 doing interviews, because of course right now they're trying to 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:24.240 shore up what happens next. Susan Lay is the current 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:29.520 deputy leader. Of course, Angus Taylor was the former shadow 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:34.360 Treasurer Dantean and maybe even sort of outside voices in 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.840 terms of being the deputy could be things like people 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.160 like Zoe McKenzie. But I, rather than wanting to say 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:41.880 I think this person is not my choice, it's the 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.120 choice of the MPs, let's just do the obvious pros 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.440 and cons around all of these people, looking at the 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:49.960 reality that this is two terms, all right, two terms 0:15:49.960 --> 0:15:52.800 and potentially many opposition leaders, just as it was for 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:53.440 the Labor. 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.640 Party during the Howard era of dominance. 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:58.920 A pro for Susan Lay is that she's the deputy 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.280 leader of the part and in the same way that 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:04.920 people assume Josh Friedenberg would replace Scott Morrison. Peter Costello 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:10.080 would replace John Howard. That deputy leadership position is the 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:14.520 natural successor. There's the obvious issues in and around gender, 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:19.160 but more importantly, it does signal a change in direction 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:21.360 at the very least in terms of presentation. You can 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.000 think that's yay or nay. You can say a little 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:27.280 to this, a little to that. It's not Goldilocks. It's politics. 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.760 The obvious con she made a couple of massive mistakes 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.280 during the campaign and during her time as deputy leader 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:34.800 where she was too quick out of the gate to 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:38.480 say the opposition will oppose or the opposition will support, 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.400 rather than waiting to find out what either collective brain 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.160 of the party thought would happen, for example Stage three 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:49.000 tax cuts, or what the leadership group had said. And 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:50.640 once you go out of the gate, and if the 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.840 leader contradicts the deputy leader, well then it looks like. 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:53.640 An internal fraction. 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.160 So you end up perhaps going in a direction that 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.120 maybe maybe maybe some people didn't want to go. Also, 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:01.560 there's some local issues here in terms of her seat. 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:03.640 There are a group of people who are in and 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:07.240 around her branch of the Liberal Party who have constantly 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:08.680 tried to knock her out of the seat. 0:17:08.880 --> 0:17:11.359 I don't care why. I don't care what their grievances are. 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.680 I don't care whether they're right or wrong. But that's just. 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.480 Part of the pro part of the con when it 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:20.000 comes to Susan lay As for Angus Taylor, and the 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:23.200 pro and con around him is. 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.280 That the pro is that he is the shadow treasurer. 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:28.240 He knows the books, he knows where they've hid the money, 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.560 he knows what they put off into the nevern never, 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:31.919 and he knows what happens in the. 0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:33.040 Next couple of years. 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:36.000 And he's able to with that knowledge to be able 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.560 to exploit some of the broken promises issues. He's a 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:41.840 Rhodes scholar as well. This is a very smart man. 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.920 The con is that he doesn't worry the Labor Party 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:47.760 at all. And he also, as we saw in some 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:49.920 of the debates or sometimes interviews, he finds it hard 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:53.000 to pick a line that cuts through and hammer hammer hammer, 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.600 hammer hammer message discipline is really important in politics. Again, 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:58.879 I don't know any of these people. I'm not going 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.639 to say one's too left write and again I'm not 0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:03.320 picking I'm just being honest here. 0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:06.359 This is part of this next phase of absolute. 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:08.879 Honesty, which is what good friends should do. Now, Andrew 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.800 hasty his offers saying will not be running for the leadership, 0:18:13.119 --> 0:18:15.640 we will imagine there will be absolute confirmation of that 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:17.280 with his own words in the next at a while. 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.399 I would find that disappointing if he didn't put himself 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:23.000 into the contest, because while I am not a fan 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.040 of Anthony alban Easy in any way, shape or form, 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.919 when they were blasted from government in twenty thirteen, he 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:29.359 did put his hand up to be the leader. 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.119 Now there's an entire alternative history here where. 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.119 If Albo had ended up being the leader in twenty 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:37.840 thirteen to sixteen and sixteen to nineteen, that may well 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:39.399 it would have been Bill short and sitting there in 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.080 twenty twenty two and perhaps being re elected in the 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.239 same manner in twenty twenty five. But one of the 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.920 things I think that you need to send to your supporters, 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.040 to the community, to the media is to put your 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:51.600 hand up to say, yeah, I want to have a crack, 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:53.639