WEBVTT - What’s really going on inside Iran? 

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, July four, twenty twenty five. Unions are throwing

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<v Speaker 1>their weight around in the public servants and the government

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<v Speaker 1>seems to approve. The Albanese government has put the hard

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<v Speaker 1>word on agency chiefs to meet regularly with union bosses

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<v Speaker 1>through a powerful new committee. A man charged with child

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<v Speaker 1>sex offenses in Melbourne has been revealed as the president

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<v Speaker 1>of an amateur radio club that worked with local Scouts.

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<v Speaker 1>It's believed Michael Simon Wilson was connected to alleged pedophile

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<v Speaker 1>childcare worker Joshua Phillips, who was this week charged with

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<v Speaker 1>dozens of offenses. Those stories alive right now at the

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<v Speaker 1>Australian dot com dot au. What's really going on in Iran?

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<v Speaker 1>Does it have a viable nuclear program? How deeply involved

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<v Speaker 1>at China and Russia in helping their Today Foreign Editor

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan on the truth about the most secretive regime

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<v Speaker 1>on Earth. It took a matter of minutes, but we'll

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<v Speaker 1>be talking about it for years. The June twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>two raid by the United States military on Iran's nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>facilities for dou Natanz and Isfahan was supposed to leave

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<v Speaker 1>nothing but rubble. It's been obliterated, totally obliterated. But then

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<v Speaker 1>US defense spies said not so much.

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<v Speaker 2>A preliminary Pentagon report indicates the damage was limited, seeing

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months.

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<v Speaker 1>And then their boss, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down

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<v Speaker 1>on the rubble. You better get a big shovel and

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<v Speaker 1>go really deep because Iran's nuclear program is obliterated. And

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<v Speaker 1>now the CIA says that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement saying several key

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be

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<v Speaker 2>rebuilt over the course of years.

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<v Speaker 1>It's confusing, and when things are confusing, we bring in

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<v Speaker 1>the foreign editor Greg Sheridan to make it all clear.

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<v Speaker 2>The truth is clear. Nobody knows. That's a very unsatisfactory answer.

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<v Speaker 2>The truth is nobody knows the true extent of the

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<v Speaker 2>damage at Fourdah, not even the Iranians, because nobody has

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<v Speaker 2>been down there to dig through the rubble. Were any

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<v Speaker 2>of the facilities left intact inside Fourdoh? What happened to

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<v Speaker 2>the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium enriched nearly to

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<v Speaker 2>weapons grade, which the Uranians have as a stockpile, which

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<v Speaker 2>they had stored in Fourdo because they thought it was

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<v Speaker 2>safer there. Did they get it out? Has it been

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<v Speaker 2>forever encased in a sort of landslide caused by this

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<v Speaker 2>bunker bomb? The Americans put twelve bunker busters onto four Todoh,

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of them down a ventilation shaft. I

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't have liked to be at the bottom of that myself.

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<v Speaker 2>It's very clear they've done big, big damage. But I'm

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<v Speaker 2>sure Trump was exaggerating when he says they totally obliterated

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<v Speaker 2>the facilities. But more than exaggeration, the truth is we

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<v Speaker 2>just don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>Before those strikes happened, there was talk that if they

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<v Speaker 1>were dropped on a place like Fourdo, essentially a nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>facility inside a mountain, that they would destroy the mountain.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, what we saw from surveillance photographs afterwards were

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<v Speaker 1>quite neat holes in the mountain, and all that damage

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<v Speaker 1>is underground. When you saw those images, Greg, were you

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<v Speaker 1>surprised that the mountain at photo for example, had not

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<v Speaker 1>been destroyed.

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<v Speaker 2>No, But I'm not claiming to have great technical expertise

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<v Speaker 2>on what happens to a mountain when you put a

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<v Speaker 2>bunker buster inside it. These bombs are quite unique, and

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<v Speaker 2>if they weren't so distractive, they'd be quite beautiful. They

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<v Speaker 2>weigh thirty thousand pounds about fourteen thousand kilograms. I think

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<v Speaker 2>about half that weight is actually explosive, So they are

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest non nuclear bombs in the world. They are

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<v Speaker 2>guided by a version of GPS to a very precise target,

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<v Speaker 2>and then they burrow sixty meters underground before they blow up. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>I guess it's like building the Snowy hydro project or something.

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<v Speaker 2>If you go far enough underground, you won't disturb the

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<v Speaker 2>surface of the mountain that much. But we know that

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<v Speaker 2>uranium in Richmond's cascades are very very delicate machines. In

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<v Speaker 2>the past is rather than the United States have been

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<v Speaker 2>able to wipe them out with computer viruses just to

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<v Speaker 2>make them vibrate in the wrong way, and then they

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<v Speaker 2>sort of have a nervous collapse. They can't deal with

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<v Speaker 2>the vibrations and completely stop functioning. Now, the National Atomic

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<v Speaker 2>Energy Agency thinks that whatever happened, that would be enough

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<v Speaker 2>to destroy those cascades. The question would be really whether

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranians have other cascades somewhere else. There's another mountain,

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<v Speaker 2>Pickaxe Mountain, not far from the Tans, I think, where

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranians are said to be building the secret tunnels

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<v Speaker 2>and so on. I think the truth is the Americans

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<v Speaker 2>in Israelis will keep a very close watch on this,

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<v Speaker 2>and if they think the Iranians are getting close to

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<v Speaker 2>reviving the program, they'll do it again. But there are

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of other fascinating things out of the war.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, the Israelis completely suppressed Iranian air defense, so

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<v Speaker 2>the Israelis and the Americans had complete freedom of movement

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<v Speaker 2>across the Iranian skies. The level of knowledge that the

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis had about where every nuclear scientist was, every member

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<v Speaker 2>of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, the one

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<v Speaker 2>telephone call I'd hate to get in Iran would be congratulations,

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<v Speaker 2>you've been promoted to the head of the Islamic Revolutionary

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<v Speaker 2>Guard Corps. I mean, I certainly make sure my affairs

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<v Speaker 2>were in order. If I got that, well, guess what,

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<v Speaker 2>You've been seconded to the nuclear development program. I think

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<v Speaker 2>those would be very unattractive phone calls. The other thing, Claire,

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<v Speaker 2>is it seems there's a very high consensus that the

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<v Speaker 2>so called converter was destroyed. Now, to make a weapon,

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<v Speaker 2>you have to convert highly enriched uranium into metal. But

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<v Speaker 2>on the reporting, the Uranians can't make a converter. They

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<v Speaker 2>were given one or presumably sold it by China quite

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<v Speaker 2>some time ago, So either China or Russia or North

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<v Speaker 2>Korea would have to consciously supply them with another converter. So,

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<v Speaker 2>in a sense, it doesn't matter how many cascades they've

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<v Speaker 2>got and how many tons of enriched uranium. If they

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<v Speaker 2>want to make an actual nuclear warhead, they'll need a

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<v Speaker 2>converter again, as well as a fully functioning program. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>they might get one next week from China, or China

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<v Speaker 2>might decide that it doesn't want to have an Islamic

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<v Speaker 2>bomb just nearby anyway after all, and they may never

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<v Speaker 2>get one.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's President Massud Pozeshkian has now signed a law saying

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<v Speaker 1>that Iran won't cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that mean anything in practice? Greg Or were they

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<v Speaker 1>not cooperating in the first.

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<v Speaker 2>Place, Well, they were partly cooperating and they are partly

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<v Speaker 2>not cooperating, So they did allow IAEA inspectors in to

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<v Speaker 2>some extent, so that meant you could keep some surveillance

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<v Speaker 2>on some of their facilities. A rag nation like Iran

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<v Speaker 2>can still do things in secret at other facilities, but

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<v Speaker 2>it has to be a bit careful of what it's

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<v Speaker 2>doing under the eye of the IAEA. It's completely inconceivable

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<v Speaker 2>that while they are not cooperating with the IAEA, they

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<v Speaker 2>get any real relief from sanctions. I mean, people say,

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<v Speaker 2>if he Ran really wanted a nuclear weapon, it would

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<v Speaker 2>have had one by now. But that ignores two or

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<v Speaker 2>three fundamental things. First of all, the Americans of the

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<v Speaker 2>Israelis constantly interfered with the Iranian program. The Israelis engaged

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<v Speaker 2>in targeted assassinations, physical sabotage, and cyber sabotage that was very,

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<v Speaker 2>very effective. And Secondly, the Iranians lacked money and resources

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<v Speaker 2>because they were subject to such crippling sanctions and pulling

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<v Speaker 2>out of the International Atomic Energy Agency so definitively guarantees

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<v Speaker 2>that they'll be subject to those sanctions. And it doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>matter who succeeds Donald Trump, it could be Alexandra or

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<v Speaker 2>Caazio Cortez won't she won't lift the sanctions if they're

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<v Speaker 2>not cooperating with the IAEA.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up? Is there a chance Iran's regime could really fall?

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<v Speaker 1>One of my favorite TV shows, Greg, I think I've

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<v Speaker 1>tried to get you to watch it in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to talk to you about it, so

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<v Speaker 1>you are going to have to watch it as your homework.

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<v Speaker 1>It's called Tehran. It's on Apple TV Plus, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>about a smoking hot Israeli female Mossad spy who's sent

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<v Speaker 1>to Iran to penetrate the country and try to destroy

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<v Speaker 1>all their ambitions. Her cover is blown as as soon

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<v Speaker 1>as she gets in the country, and she's being hunted

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<v Speaker 1>by the head of the Revolutionary Guard. What emerges over

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<v Speaker 1>the course of the show is that even though senior

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<v Speaker 1>officials in the Iranian government are uncomfortable with the regime,

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<v Speaker 1>don't like the repression of women, they are deeply patriotic

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<v Speaker 1>and they don't want Iran to suffer or to collapse.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that part of the problem here for Israel that

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<v Speaker 1>we can talk about regime change in Iran, but even

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<v Speaker 1>Iranians who don't like the government are very very patriotic.

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<v Speaker 2>Well clear, that's true in a way, but I mean

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<v Speaker 2>everyone is patriotic. I mean, Greenland is a patriotic you know,

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<v Speaker 2>most Landers are patrion everybody's patriotic. I think all the

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<v Speaker 2>talk of regime change, both by the Israelis and the

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<v Speaker 2>Americans was just a bit of bluff, really. I mean

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<v Speaker 2>it's just designed to put a bit of psychological pressure

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<v Speaker 2>on the Iranian government. I mean, if you are seriously

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<v Speaker 2>pursuing regime change, you try to kill the government and

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<v Speaker 2>you back people to replace the government. Well, the Israelis

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<v Speaker 2>were very meticulous in not targeting the civilian leadership of Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>If either of the Americans or the Israelis had been

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<v Speaker 2>pursuing regime change, they would have run a different kind

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<v Speaker 2>of operation, and they would have tried to identify the

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<v Speaker 2>Iranians who they would have liked to take power. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranian society is very complex and very diverse, but

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<v Speaker 2>everything we can know leads us to believe that they

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<v Speaker 2>hate the regime. Ninety million people, very ancient society, ethnically,

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<v Speaker 2>quite diverse. They're not a Persians, they're certainly not all share.

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<v Speaker 2>You get regime change in a society like that if

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<v Speaker 2>there's a popular uprising and the security forces won't shoot

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<v Speaker 2>their own people. Where there have been a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>popular uprisings in Iran over the last twenty years, but

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<v Speaker 2>the security forces have always been quite happy to arrest,

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<v Speaker 2>beat to death and shoot the citizens engaging in the demonstrations.

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<v Speaker 2>But another way you get regime change is if there's

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<v Speaker 2>a division within the elite leadership. Now some of the

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<v Speaker 2>elite leadership will be saying, what did we get out

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<v Speaker 2>of these hundreds of billions of dollars that we invested

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<v Speaker 2>in Russian defense systems, missile capabilities, nuclear weapons programs. The

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<v Speaker 2>Great Satan and the Little Satan between them have just

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<v Speaker 2>wiped it all out. Now, none of that guarantees you're

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<v Speaker 2>going to get change in Iran, And you could get

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<v Speaker 2>change that is worse. You could get a worse government,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a government which became needless. But I think

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<v Speaker 2>this war will have exacerbated the divisions within Iran. There

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<v Speaker 2>is a little bit of a rally around the flag effect,

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<v Speaker 2>but there's no evidence of any affection for this government.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a This is a widely despised government by

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<v Speaker 2>a pretty lictric population.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read

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<v Speaker 1>all the latest from the Middle East, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>all the nation's best news, sport and politics anytime at

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<v Speaker 1>the Australian dot com. Dou Yah