1 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:06,560 Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. 2 00:00:06,600 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: It's Friday, July four, twenty twenty five. Unions are throwing 3 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: their weight around in the public servants and the government 4 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: seems to approve. The Albanese government has put the hard 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: word on agency chiefs to meet regularly with union bosses 6 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: through a powerful new committee. A man charged with child 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: sex offenses in Melbourne has been revealed as the president 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: of an amateur radio club that worked with local Scouts. 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,639 Speaker 1: It's believed Michael Simon Wilson was connected to alleged pedophile 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: childcare worker Joshua Phillips, who was this week charged with 11 00:00:43,320 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: dozens of offenses. Those stories alive right now at the 12 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au. What's really going on in Iran? 13 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: Does it have a viable nuclear program? How deeply involved 14 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: at China and Russia in helping their Today Foreign Editor 15 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:06,240 Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan on the truth about the most secretive regime 16 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:17,559 Speaker 1: on Earth. It took a matter of minutes, but we'll 17 00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:21,279 Speaker 1: be talking about it for years. The June twenty twenty 18 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: two raid by the United States military on Iran's nuclear 19 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:29,559 Speaker 1: facilities for dou Natanz and Isfahan was supposed to leave 20 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: nothing but rubble. It's been obliterated, totally obliterated. But then 21 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: US defense spies said not so much. 22 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 2: A preliminary Pentagon report indicates the damage was limited, seeing 23 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months. 24 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: And then their boss, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down 25 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: on the rubble. You better get a big shovel and 26 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: go really deep because Iran's nuclear program is obliterated. And 27 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: now the CIA says that's right. 28 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 2: CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement saying several key 29 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 2: Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be 30 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: rebuilt over the course of years. 31 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: It's confusing, and when things are confusing, we bring in 32 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 1: the foreign editor Greg Sheridan to make it all clear. 33 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 2: The truth is clear. Nobody knows. That's a very unsatisfactory answer. 34 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 2: The truth is nobody knows the true extent of the 35 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 2: damage at Fourdah, not even the Iranians, because nobody has 36 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 2: been down there to dig through the rubble. Were any 37 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 2: of the facilities left intact inside Fourdoh? What happened to 38 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 2: the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium enriched nearly to 39 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 2: weapons grade, which the Uranians have as a stockpile, which 40 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 2: they had stored in Fourdo because they thought it was 41 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 2: safer there. Did they get it out? Has it been 42 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: forever encased in a sort of landslide caused by this 43 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 2: bunker bomb? The Americans put twelve bunker busters onto four Todoh, 44 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 2: and a lot of them down a ventilation shaft. I 45 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,519 Speaker 2: wouldn't have liked to be at the bottom of that myself. 46 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 2: It's very clear they've done big, big damage. But I'm 47 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 2: sure Trump was exaggerating when he says they totally obliterated 48 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 2: the facilities. But more than exaggeration, the truth is we 49 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 2: just don't know. 50 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: Before those strikes happened, there was talk that if they 51 00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,959 Speaker 1: were dropped on a place like Fourdo, essentially a nuclear 52 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: facility inside a mountain, that they would destroy the mountain. 53 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: In fact, what we saw from surveillance photographs afterwards were 54 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: quite neat holes in the mountain, and all that damage 55 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: is underground. When you saw those images, Greg, were you 56 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: surprised that the mountain at photo for example, had not 57 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: been destroyed. 58 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: No, But I'm not claiming to have great technical expertise 59 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 2: on what happens to a mountain when you put a 60 00:03:54,320 --> 00:04:00,160 Speaker 2: bunker buster inside it. These bombs are quite unique, and 61 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: if they weren't so distractive, they'd be quite beautiful. They 62 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 2: weigh thirty thousand pounds about fourteen thousand kilograms. I think 63 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: about half that weight is actually explosive, So they are 64 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: the biggest non nuclear bombs in the world. They are 65 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 2: guided by a version of GPS to a very precise target, 66 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 2: and then they burrow sixty meters underground before they blow up. Now, 67 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,719 Speaker 2: I guess it's like building the Snowy hydro project or something. 68 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,200 Speaker 2: If you go far enough underground, you won't disturb the 69 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: surface of the mountain that much. But we know that 70 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: uranium in Richmond's cascades are very very delicate machines. In 71 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: the past is rather than the United States have been 72 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: able to wipe them out with computer viruses just to 73 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: make them vibrate in the wrong way, and then they 74 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 2: sort of have a nervous collapse. They can't deal with 75 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 2: the vibrations and completely stop functioning. Now, the National Atomic 76 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 2: Energy Agency thinks that whatever happened, that would be enough 77 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 2: to destroy those cascades. The question would be really whether 78 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 2: the Iranians have other cascades somewhere else. There's another mountain, 79 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: Pickaxe Mountain, not far from the Tans, I think, where 80 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 2: the Iranians are said to be building the secret tunnels 81 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 2: and so on. I think the truth is the Americans 82 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 2: in Israelis will keep a very close watch on this, 83 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 2: and if they think the Iranians are getting close to 84 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 2: reviving the program, they'll do it again. But there are 85 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 2: a lot of other fascinating things out of the war. 86 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 2: I mean, the Israelis completely suppressed Iranian air defense, so 87 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 2: the Israelis and the Americans had complete freedom of movement 88 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 2: across the Iranian skies. The level of knowledge that the 89 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:53,239 Speaker 2: Israelis had about where every nuclear scientist was, every member 90 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 2: of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, the one 91 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 2: telephone call I'd hate to get in Iran would be congratulations, 92 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: you've been promoted to the head of the Islamic Revolutionary 93 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 2: Guard Corps. I mean, I certainly make sure my affairs 94 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: were in order. If I got that, well, guess what, 95 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: You've been seconded to the nuclear development program. I think 96 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 2: those would be very unattractive phone calls. The other thing, Claire, 97 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 2: is it seems there's a very high consensus that the 98 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 2: so called converter was destroyed. Now, to make a weapon, 99 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 2: you have to convert highly enriched uranium into metal. But 100 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,720 Speaker 2: on the reporting, the Uranians can't make a converter. They 101 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 2: were given one or presumably sold it by China quite 102 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 2: some time ago, So either China or Russia or North 103 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 2: Korea would have to consciously supply them with another converter. So, 104 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 2: in a sense, it doesn't matter how many cascades they've 105 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 2: got and how many tons of enriched uranium. If they 106 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: want to make an actual nuclear warhead, they'll need a 107 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: converter again, as well as a fully functioning program. Well, 108 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 2: they might get one next week from China, or China 109 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 2: might decide that it doesn't want to have an Islamic 110 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 2: bomb just nearby anyway after all, and they may never 111 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 2: get one. 112 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 1: Iran's President Massud Pozeshkian has now signed a law saying 113 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: that Iran won't cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency. 114 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: Does that mean anything in practice? Greg Or were they 115 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: not cooperating in the first. 116 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: Place, Well, they were partly cooperating and they are partly 117 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: not cooperating, So they did allow IAEA inspectors in to 118 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 2: some extent, so that meant you could keep some surveillance 119 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: on some of their facilities. A rag nation like Iran 120 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 2: can still do things in secret at other facilities, but 121 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: it has to be a bit careful of what it's 122 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 2: doing under the eye of the IAEA. It's completely inconceivable 123 00:07:56,640 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 2: that while they are not cooperating with the IAEA, they 124 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 2: get any real relief from sanctions. I mean, people say, 125 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 2: if he Ran really wanted a nuclear weapon, it would 126 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 2: have had one by now. But that ignores two or 127 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 2: three fundamental things. First of all, the Americans of the 128 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 2: Israelis constantly interfered with the Iranian program. The Israelis engaged 129 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 2: in targeted assassinations, physical sabotage, and cyber sabotage that was very, 130 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: very effective. And Secondly, the Iranians lacked money and resources 131 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 2: because they were subject to such crippling sanctions and pulling 132 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 2: out of the International Atomic Energy Agency so definitively guarantees 133 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 2: that they'll be subject to those sanctions. And it doesn't 134 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: matter who succeeds Donald Trump, it could be Alexandra or 135 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: Caazio Cortez won't she won't lift the sanctions if they're 136 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 2: not cooperating with the IAEA. 137 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: Coming up? Is there a chance Iran's regime could really fall? 138 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: One of my favorite TV shows, Greg, I think I've 139 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: tried to get you to watch it in the past. 140 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: I just want to talk to you about it, so 141 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: you are going to have to watch it as your homework. 142 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: It's called Tehran. It's on Apple TV Plus, and it's 143 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:31,720 Speaker 1: about a smoking hot Israeli female Mossad spy who's sent 144 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: to Iran to penetrate the country and try to destroy 145 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 1: all their ambitions. Her cover is blown as as soon 146 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 1: as she gets in the country, and she's being hunted 147 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: by the head of the Revolutionary Guard. What emerges over 148 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 1: the course of the show is that even though senior 149 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: officials in the Iranian government are uncomfortable with the regime, 150 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: don't like the repression of women, they are deeply patriotic 151 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 1: and they don't want Iran to suffer or to collapse. 152 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: Is that part of the problem here for Israel that 153 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: we can talk about regime change in Iran, but even 154 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 1: Iranians who don't like the government are very very patriotic. 155 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 2: Well clear, that's true in a way, but I mean 156 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: everyone is patriotic. I mean, Greenland is a patriotic you know, 157 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 2: most Landers are patrion everybody's patriotic. I think all the 158 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 2: talk of regime change, both by the Israelis and the 159 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,719 Speaker 2: Americans was just a bit of bluff, really. I mean 160 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,679 Speaker 2: it's just designed to put a bit of psychological pressure 161 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: on the Iranian government. I mean, if you are seriously 162 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 2: pursuing regime change, you try to kill the government and 163 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 2: you back people to replace the government. Well, the Israelis 164 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: were very meticulous in not targeting the civilian leadership of Iran. 165 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 2: If either of the Americans or the Israelis had been 166 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 2: pursuing regime change, they would have run a different kind 167 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: of operation, and they would have tried to identify the 168 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 2: Iranians who they would have liked to take power. Now, 169 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 2: the Iranian society is very complex and very diverse, but 170 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 2: everything we can know leads us to believe that they 171 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 2: hate the regime. Ninety million people, very ancient society, ethnically, 172 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 2: quite diverse. They're not a Persians, they're certainly not all share. 173 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,440 Speaker 2: You get regime change in a society like that if 174 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: there's a popular uprising and the security forces won't shoot 175 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 2: their own people. Where there have been a lot of 176 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 2: popular uprisings in Iran over the last twenty years, but 177 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 2: the security forces have always been quite happy to arrest, 178 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 2: beat to death and shoot the citizens engaging in the demonstrations. 179 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,320 Speaker 2: But another way you get regime change is if there's 180 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 2: a division within the elite leadership. Now some of the 181 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 2: elite leadership will be saying, what did we get out 182 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 2: of these hundreds of billions of dollars that we invested 183 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 2: in Russian defense systems, missile capabilities, nuclear weapons programs. The 184 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 2: Great Satan and the Little Satan between them have just 185 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 2: wiped it all out. Now, none of that guarantees you're 186 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 2: going to get change in Iran, And you could get 187 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 2: change that is worse. You could get a worse government, 188 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 2: you know, a government which became needless. But I think 189 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 2: this war will have exacerbated the divisions within Iran. There 190 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 2: is a little bit of a rally around the flag effect, 191 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: but there's no evidence of any affection for this government. 192 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 2: This is a This is a widely despised government by 193 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 2: a pretty lictric population. 194 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read 195 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: all the latest from the Middle East, as well as 196 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 1: all the nation's best news, sport and politics anytime at 197 00:12:52,920 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: the Australian dot com. Dou Yah