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Speaker 1: I'm Daniel James, and you're listening to 7am. The Coalition

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Speaker 1: is under pressure from One Nation, and its response is

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Speaker 1: becoming increasingly clear. Angus Taylor is pushing a much harder

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Speaker 1: line in immigration, borrowing language that has echoes of populist

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Speaker 1: movements overseas.

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Speaker 2: That their policy, that their government is built on massive

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Speaker 2: population growth, mass migration, tells us everything we need to

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Speaker 2: know about this Labor government.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, One Nation is escalating its own

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Speaker 1: rhetoric as it tries to capitalise on the anger and

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Speaker 1: discontent spreading across the electorate. It's part of a broader

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Speaker 1: fracture in Australian politics as the major parties try to

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Speaker 1: confront a more volatile electorate and as the government faces

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Speaker 1: renewed pressure over interest rates, inflation and cost of living. Today,

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Speaker 1: Press Gallery journalist Karen Middleton on a political system being

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Speaker 1: pulled towards its edges and whether Anthony Albanese can still

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Speaker 1: make the centre hold. It's Saturday, October 10. Karen, I

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Speaker 1: think we all expected the Coalition to come out pretty

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Speaker 1: hard on migration given the existential threat they're facing from

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Speaker 1: One Nation. But as has been pointed out by a

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Speaker 1: friend of the show, Raph Epstein, the language from Angus

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Speaker 1: Taylor was almost far right.

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Speaker 2: We've also seen under Labor a shift away from skilled

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Speaker 2: migration to mass migration. We will reverse that.

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Speaker 1: Mass migration is a term used by the AFD in Germany.

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Speaker 2: We all want to see. People want their country back.

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Speaker 2: I want my country back.

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Speaker 3: We all want our country back.

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Speaker 1: I want our country back is a phrase used by

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Speaker 1: Nigel Farage. We expected a pretty extreme policy. Did we

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Speaker 1: expect the extreme rhetoric to go with it?

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Speaker 3: Look, I'm not surprised, Daniel, because they are pitching at

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Speaker 3: a part of their former constituency that has left Germany

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Speaker 3: the Liberals and Nationals and gone to One Nation or

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Speaker 3: is saying that they're going to. So they need to

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Speaker 3: catch their attention. I'm not excusing the language. I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to explain it. But that is why they are using

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Speaker 3: these kinds of phrases, because those kinds of phrases will

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Speaker 3: catch people's social media feeds. The algorithms will pick them

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Speaker 3: up and connect to some of those, you know, parties

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Speaker 3: and figures overseas and what they've been saying. So they're

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Speaker 3: trying to get in front of people's eyeballs with that

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Speaker 3: kind of language. And they're making this... values argument. So

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Speaker 3: their argument about migration is about numbers. And now we've

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Speaker 3: got all the major parties out with their policies. We've

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Speaker 3: got the Labor government, we've got the coalition, and we've

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Speaker 3: got the one nation policies. And it's variations on a

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Speaker 3: theme of trying to get the number, the net overseas

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Speaker 3: migration number, which is people into the country minus people

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Speaker 3: leaving the country down. So it's about the numbers, but

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Speaker 3: with the coalition, it's also about values, patriotism and the

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Speaker 3: kinds of migrants we want. And so they are quite

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Speaker 3: deliberately sort of using that, well, you might call dog

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Speaker 3: whistle language to attract those people.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was pretty clear that they feel like they

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Speaker 1: need to at least one up or at least match

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Speaker 1: One Nation when it comes to this issue. Is that

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Speaker 1: a smart strategy though, especially as the policy that they've

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Speaker 1: announced is so far uncosted? Are they ever going to

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Speaker 1: beat Pauline Hanson when it comes to being tough on immigration?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the problem the coalition has got is

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Speaker 3: that its support and, you know, that this is the

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Speaker 3: Liberal and National parties, their support has fallen so far,

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Speaker 3: and particularly the Liberal parties, that they're resorting to kind

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Speaker 3: of narrowly focused, desperate pitches, really, to get people back. Now, normally,

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Speaker 3: if you're a party of government, you're being, you're conscious

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Speaker 3: that you've got to speak to the whole country. And

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Speaker 3: that's a huge challenge always for major political parties, because

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Speaker 3: they have broad constituencies. So they tend to focus on

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Speaker 3: issues that can cross those constituencies. And for the coalition

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Speaker 3: and the Liberals in particular, economic management has been their

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Speaker 3: big thing. It's been the thing that has always served

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Speaker 3: them well. But it hasn't served them as well in

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Speaker 3: recent years. So now they're having to try and kind

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Speaker 3: of pull sections of their old constituency back. And that

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Speaker 3: is what's driving this kind of messaging. And because the

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Speaker 3: messaging that One Nation is using that seems to be

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Speaker 3: so resonant with sections of the community is about this

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Speaker 3: this stuff, take the country back, the Liberals are going

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Speaker 3: for that.

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Speaker 1: If we turn to the LNP's existential threat in the

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Speaker 1: form of One Nation, which had its Victorian launch over

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Speaker 1: the weekend. I shouldn't be on bail.

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Speaker 2: No more mass migration.

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Speaker 1: Again, it featured pretty racist AI-generated video, which included an

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Speaker 1: Arabic-looking man with a bomb strapped to him.

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Speaker 4: I shouldn't have been allowed into the country.

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Speaker 1: The video and its contents has gone largely unreported. Is

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Speaker 1: that a sign, Karen, that we as an electorate, we

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Speaker 1: as a media class are becoming desensitised to One Nation's

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Speaker 1: overt racism? There seems to have been little or no

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Speaker 1: response from the other parties as well when it comes

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Speaker 1: to that video.

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Speaker 3: They are getting... more, and I use this word advisedly,

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Speaker 3: sophisticated political advice than they used to, and they are

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Speaker 3: playing in the big sandpit now, and they are deliberately

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Speaker 3: sending out messages that are provocative that will, again, push

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Speaker 3: buttons on social media. The thing about that video, aside

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Speaker 3: from what you've pointed out about the stereotypes, was it

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Speaker 3: was having these AI-generated characters who represented a particular stereotype

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Speaker 3: and pushing a message saying the stereotype should change. Now,

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Speaker 3: that is some sophisticated kind of political psychology in there.

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Speaker 3: You see a picture of an Indigenous man in remote Australia,

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Speaker 3: and he's saying, we shouldn't get handouts. We, you know,

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Speaker 3: people shouldn't be getting handouts. So it's reinforcing this stereotypical

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Speaker 3: prejudice that some people have. And I think that is

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Speaker 3: a worry, and it hasn't had a lot of attention,

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Speaker 3: you're right.

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Speaker 2: We are.

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Speaker 3: going to see a lot more AI-generated material in our

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Speaker 3: political discourse unless something is done to stop it. And

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Speaker 3: it won't just be One Nation. We're already aware of

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Speaker 3: misinformation and disinformation campaigns. There's been concerns in other countries

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Speaker 3: and here about the role of foreign actors pushing information

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Speaker 3: into our democracy. So I think this is something that

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Speaker 3: governments around the world and ours included have to be

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Speaker 3: alert to, to try and work out a way to

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Speaker 3: prevent that kind of material catching hold. And it's very difficult.

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Speaker 3: All the debate we've had about social media and trying

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Speaker 3: to put that genie back in the bottle for young

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Speaker 3: people in particular. is all relevant in this case. It's

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Speaker 3: really going to hit us when we've got AI-generated campaign material,

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Speaker 3: some of which might be true or half true or

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Speaker 3: completely made up, false, based on false ideas. So that

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Speaker 3: is what is, I think, really alarming about this example.

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Speaker 3: And you're right, it is pushing all kinds of very

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Speaker 3: base stereotypes about particular people in the community. And I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure how unifying that is.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, is Anthony Albanese the only leader left standing

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Speaker 1: in the centre? Karen, Anthony Albanese has been away at

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Speaker 1: this pre-cop climate gathering after a pretty bruising week for

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Speaker 1: the government last week. How much do you think Labor

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Speaker 1: will take in terms of political costs with the interest

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Speaker 1: rate rise and inflation continuing to rise?

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Speaker 3: Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has dashed hopes of any new

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Speaker 3: cost of living relief, warning his government is about to

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Speaker 3: be hit with.

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Speaker 4: The job I take responsibility for is to continue to

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Speaker 4: manage the budget in a very responsible way, only provide

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Speaker 4: that cost of living relief in a responsible... an affordable way.

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Speaker 1: They're four years in now. Are people beginning to look

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Speaker 1: at the government and start to ask some very serious

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Speaker 1: questions now that there are some serious alternatives?

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Speaker 3: I think they're in a difficult... place now in the

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Speaker 3: political timeline, as you say, four years in. So we've

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Speaker 3: had one whole term, we're almost halfway through a second term.

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Speaker 3: That is always a difficult time for a government. We've

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Speaker 3: had a couple of notable exceptions in Bob Hawke's government

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Speaker 3: or the Labor government under Hawke and Keating, and then

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Speaker 3: John Howard's government of being re-elected multiple times. But voters

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Speaker 3: do start to look through different eyes at a government

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Speaker 3: when it's been there for a while, especially if things

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Speaker 3: are not going well economically. So there is pressure on

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Speaker 3: the government, no question. And the confluence of the rise

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Speaker 3: in interest rates and the rise in inflation, which to

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Speaker 3: be fair, was not as big as people were forecasting.

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Speaker 3: So the inflation rise was better than forecast. But the

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Speaker 3: overall picture is we're still under pressure.

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Speaker 4: There is very, very substantial and intensifying pressure, not just

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Speaker 4: down on our budget, but on budgets right around the world.

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Speaker 1: Jim Chalmers playing down the possibility of further help to

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Speaker 1: meet cost of living pressures and talking up a tightening

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Speaker 1: of the budget.

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Speaker 3: They are relying, I think, on two things. One, that

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Speaker 3: the arc of the political term is long and if

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Speaker 3: they can cause an improvement in the lead up to

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Speaker 3: the election. So if things feel like they're improving in

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Speaker 3: terms of interest rates and the economic pressures we're under,

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Speaker 3: then people might take a different view and not be

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Speaker 3: as critical of the government. And the second thing they're

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Speaker 3: relying on is they're pointing to the coalition and One

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Speaker 3: Nation and saying, are those people really good enough to

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Speaker 3: run the country? Are they better than us? They're relying

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Speaker 3: on the, it will be worse under them argument. Now,

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Speaker 3: they've got to be careful with that because if people

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Speaker 3: are so frustrated that they reach a decision, particularly in

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Speaker 3: relation to One Nation, that what the hell, it couldn't

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Speaker 3: be worse, when it probably could be worse but people

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Speaker 3: might feel that way, you know, then that argument falls. away.

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Speaker 3: So I think they're in a dangerous spot. I don't

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Speaker 3: think you should be relying on how bad the other

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Speaker 3: guys seem to be to make yourselves look good. I

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Speaker 3: think they've got to get their act together at this

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Speaker 3: point because it's not looking tidy or good at the moment.

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Speaker 1: And a lot of commentary last week suggested that the

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Speaker 1: economic data, interest rate rises, inflation, was a turning point

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Speaker 1: for the government in terms of the way the public

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Speaker 1: sees them. Do you think there's merit in that argument,

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Speaker 1: or do you think that this is just part of

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Speaker 1: the woes of a government that's four years into governing?

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Speaker 3: Maybe a little bit from column A and a little

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Speaker 3: bit from column B. It's hard to know, of course,

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Speaker 3: if it's a turning point. We're seeing a sequence of

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Speaker 3: things happening. that are putting the government under pressure, some

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Speaker 3: messy politics around a number of decisions, some more economic

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Speaker 3: news that is difficult. And that is all putting the

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Speaker 3: government under pressure. And once it starts to create an impression,

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Speaker 3: if it does, that the government doesn't have a grip

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Speaker 3: on everything as well as it should, then I think

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Speaker 3: that does become a problem. Now, it's not clear to

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Speaker 3: me yet whether that's a conclusion that people are reaching. And,

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Speaker 3: you know, to the point about what the government is

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Speaker 3: relying on and whether it's going to get re-elected, the

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Speaker 3: other aspect of what it's relying on is that it

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Speaker 3: has 94 seats. It has a big majority in the

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Speaker 3: House of Representatives. And it is hard to turn a

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Speaker 3: majority like that over in a single election. Having said that,

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Speaker 3: we've seen those kinds of things happen at the state

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Speaker 3: level in particular before, a sudden swing back. So I

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Speaker 3: think all political parties now have to be alert to

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Speaker 3: the possibility that people can change their views quite dramatically mid-term.

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Speaker 3: And that point about the arc and trying to get

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Speaker 3: the timing right so things are improving before an election,

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Speaker 3: you know, that also relies on the hope that people

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Speaker 3: will wait that long before they make up their minds.

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Speaker 3: And if if you can't start reassuring people now that

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Speaker 3: they will get better, then people get a fixed idea

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Speaker 3: about you that is negative and it might be too

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Speaker 3: late by early next year or midway through next year

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Speaker 3: or even second half of next year to turn that around.

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Speaker 1: Finally, if we just pull back a little bit, do

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Speaker 1: you think that Albanese's best play is to keep going

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Speaker 1: for the so-called sensible centre? Because No one else seems

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Speaker 1: to be right now. The coalition is going right. Hanser

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Speaker 1: is further right than that. The Greens, with their leadership,

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Speaker 1: is likely to go further left under Shoebridge. Does that

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Speaker 1: leave the centre open, or is it risky for Albo

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Speaker 1: to keep plodding along in that sensible centre space? Does

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Speaker 1: he need to be seen as being more bold, or

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Speaker 1: is he on the right path in terms of where

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Speaker 1: he sees the future of his government's political fortunes?

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Speaker 3: I think it's important to remember here that being the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister and being the government is not the same

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Speaker 3: as being the opposition leader or the opposition or the

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Speaker 3: leader of a minor party on the fringes of either end.

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Speaker 3: It's a different job. Now, there are advantages to being

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Speaker 3: in government that you can wield in the political contest

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Speaker 3: and advantages to being the Prime Minister, but there are

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Speaker 3: also disadvantages that And those are that the people leading

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Speaker 3: those other parties can kind of say all kinds of

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Speaker 3: things and they're not being held accountable in the moment

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Speaker 3: for implementing them and bringing them to fruition. And so

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Speaker 3: to be fair to Anthony Albanese, it's a hard job

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Speaker 3: to do that. And you've got to manage the realities

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Speaker 3: of an economy, of national security, of global circumstances, some

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Speaker 3: of which are well beyond your control. of a technology

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Speaker 3: that's rolling over us like a juggernaut that's going to

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Speaker 3: change everything we do in the form of artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 3: All of these things are difficult to manage and he's

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Speaker 3: having to do that all at the same time. And

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Speaker 3: so he's also got to try and manage the messaging

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Speaker 3: and match the sniping in terms of reassuring people that

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Speaker 3: it's coming from the other parties. And to the point

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Speaker 3: about the centre, I mean, the key job of the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister and the government is keeping the country together.

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Speaker 3: It's a unifying task. Those other parties, you know, they

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Speaker 3: should care about that too, but they are less interested

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Speaker 3: in the political sense in unification than the government has

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Speaker 3: to be. So because that unifying thing is so important,

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Speaker 3: we judge governments on that. And if they don't do

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Speaker 3: it well enough, we toss them out. And we've done

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Speaker 3: that with governments in the past. That's the way democracy works.

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Speaker 3: So they will be judged on how well they can

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Speaker 3: keep the country together and improve everyone's quality of life.

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Speaker 1: Everything is happening all at once, Karen. Thanks for coming

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Speaker 1: on the show and helping us make sense of it.

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Speaker 3: Thanks, Dan. It's a difficult period, but no shortage of

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Speaker 3: things to talk about.

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Speaker 1: 7am is a daily show from Solstice Media. It's made

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Speaker 1: by Atticus Bastow, Chris Dengate, Crystal Keller, Renee Auckland, Ruby Jones,

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Speaker 1: Travis Evans, Yeo Chung, Zoltan Fecho Jr. and me, Daniel James.

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Speaker 1: Our theme music is by Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan

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Speaker 1: of Envelope Audio. And if you'd like to support 7am

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Speaker 1: in bringing you news independently without fear or favour, please

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Speaker 1: follow the show on your chosen podcast platform and on

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Speaker 1: our social media accounts on Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and LinkedIn.

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Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening to 7am this week. Have

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Speaker 1: yourself a great weekend.

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Speaker 3: Thank you.