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Speaker 1: Banks will be forced to make it easier for home

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Speaker 1: borrowers to shift lenders as auction clearance rates rebound. The

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Speaker 1: share market has turned into a barbell market with big winners,

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Speaker 1: big losers and not much in between, and China says

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Speaker 1: relations with Australia are back on track. Welcome to Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their

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Speaker 1: own decisions. It is Monday, the seventeenth of June twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Banks will be forced to

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Speaker 1: make it easier for customers to switch loans and notify

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Speaker 1: them over interest rate changes under a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: government proposals that are aimed at easing some of that

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Speaker 1: pressure on homeowners.

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Speaker 2: Treasure Jim Chalmers said banks now will be required to

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Speaker 2: always tell customers when their interest rate changes on their

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Speaker 2: transaction or savings accounts change. There will also be improved

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Speaker 2: disclosure requirements for basic deposit products, and banks will also

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Speaker 2: need to make it easier to switch loans by ensuring

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Speaker 2: their customers have direct and easy access to the forms

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Speaker 2: needed to exit a mortgage. The reforms are also targeted

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Speaker 2: at other platforms, such as comparison websites, which must better

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Speaker 2: disclose what determines how products are ranked and the financial

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Speaker 2: relationships they have with recommended product providers. It is all

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Speaker 2: about trying to make it easier for homeowners who have

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Speaker 2: a mortgage to shift products. The government has also announced

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Speaker 2: a regulatory review focusing on the funding costs of small

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Speaker 2: and medium lenders. The big four banks have cheaper funding

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Speaker 2: sources currently due to different capital rules, high credit ratings. Also,

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Speaker 2: people kind of assume that they'll be saved by the government.

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Speaker 2: If there's a financial crisis and one of the big

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Speaker 2: fore goes bad, they expect that the government will step in.

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Speaker 2: That's not the case with the smaller guys. Therefore, their

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Speaker 2: cost of funding is a bit higher. It means that

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Speaker 2: these regional banks smaller lenders find it really difficult to compete,

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Speaker 2: and doctor Chalmers wants to improve the competition within the

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Speaker 2: lending sector. More competition, of course, more winners for customers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt, many people would like to see a

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Speaker 1: little bit more competition. In the housing market, mind you,

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Speaker 1: though plenty of homes are still being sold.

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Speaker 2: Sure, Ah, there was a bounce in the national auction

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Speaker 2: preliminary clearance rate over the weekend to almost seventy three percent,

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Speaker 2: the best results since early May. And that came even

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Speaker 2: though there were nine hundred more auctions than the previous

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Speaker 2: week and the number of properties going under the hammer

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Speaker 2: was fifteen percent more than a year ago. That's all,

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Speaker 2: according to core Logic, Melbourne had most auctions and its

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Speaker 2: clearance straight or its early clear and straight at least

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Speaker 2: of seventy point two percent, was the best since the

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Speaker 2: first week in May. Sydney came in at seventy five percent,

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Speaker 2: adelaid a touch under eighty nine percent, and Brisbane was

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Speaker 2: almost sixty nine percent. This strong demand is helping prices,

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Speaker 2: with core Logics measure of prices over the past four

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Speaker 2: weeks up a very solid zero point eight percent. So

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Speaker 2: while the government is stepping in to make shifting between

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Speaker 2: borrowers easy year to make sure that the smaller lenders

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Speaker 2: have a fairer playing field, at the moment, doesn't seem

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Speaker 2: to be stopping consumers from taking out mortgages and buying homes.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's take a look at local markets. How

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Speaker 1: did things finish up on Friday.

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Speaker 2: S and p ASX two hundred closed down zero point

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Speaker 2: three percent to seven seven hundred and twenty four points.

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Speaker 2: For the week, it was down nearly two percent, mostly

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Speaker 2: in the back of the mining companies going the wrong way.

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Speaker 2: That was the biggest weekly loss in almost two months now.

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Speaker 2: The retail stocks were the best performers last week. If

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Speaker 2: you take a look at what's happened this year on

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Speaker 2: the market, it is very very mixed. The Technology index

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Speaker 2: is up twenty five percent in twenty twenty four, quite remarkable.

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Speaker 2: It reflects the incredible performance of tech stocks on Wall Street,

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Speaker 2: particularly anything related to data centers or artificial intelligence. Then

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Speaker 2: there's this second grouping of very strong performers, the indices

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Speaker 2: measuring interst rate sensitive stocks, including financials, utilities, real estate,

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Speaker 2: consumer discretionary. They're all up around nine, ten, even eleven percent.

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Speaker 2: But at the other end of the AX is the

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Speaker 2: Materials index huge index OU one and includes most of

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Speaker 2: the big miners, including BHP, Rio Tinto, and forts fu

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Speaker 2: Metals Group. The Energy index think Woodside, Santos, agy L,

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Speaker 2: some of those guys. That's also tumbled, as has the

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Speaker 2: Telco index, which very much depends on Telstrup. So the

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Speaker 2: ASX two hundred itself is up two percent, almost two percent.

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Speaker 2: But really, it's a barbell market. You've got the good,

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Speaker 2: you've got the bad, and not much in between.

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Speaker 1: I imagine you have a great deal of experience with

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Speaker 1: barbells from your time at forty five Fitness, So.

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Speaker 2: Please you mentioned that, I probably have to hasten to

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Speaker 2: add that. About four weeks ago we decided to give

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Speaker 2: it a break for winter, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Really yeah, you know, Sean, summer bodies are built in winter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah.

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Speaker 1: I read that slogan the other day and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: no chance.

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Speaker 2: Not a chair. Oh we went for a months and

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Speaker 2: I have never been fitter, but alas.

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Speaker 1: Is it just decided to have a bit of eating time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, eating drinking time, just for a few months, not too long.

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Speaker 1: That's good, well done, you know what. We've gone well

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Speaker 1: off track, But yes, noted. The market is now about

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Speaker 1: a barbell market.

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Speaker 2: It's a barbell market. Thank you, now, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Checking international markets thanks to blue chip communication, the experts

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Speaker 1: helping financial services companies market communicate and grows. A blue

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Speaker 1: chip communication dot com dot AU What's happening in the US.

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Speaker 2: Or consumer confidence data shows a third month of falling sentiment.

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Speaker 2: The recent run of economic data in the world's biggest

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Speaker 2: economy has very much supported hopes that inflation is returning

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Speaker 2: to more sustainable levels, and while the Fed last week

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Speaker 2: said it's base case is just one rate cut this year,

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Speaker 2: investors seem to be looking past that. Wall Street is buoyant,

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Speaker 2: with the S and P five hundred and the tech

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Speaker 2: heavy NASDAK training close to record levels. In commodity markets,

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Speaker 2: CRUD is trading around eighty three US dollars of barrel goals,

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Speaker 2: just above twenty three thirty US dollars announce iron Ore

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Speaker 2: has rebounded a touch and is fetching one hundred and

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Speaker 2: seven US dollars a ton. Bitcoin's worth sixty six thousand

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Speaker 2: US dollars a unit, while the Aussie dollar is buying

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Speaker 2: just over sixty six US sense Sean.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of the US, it is of course a very

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Speaker 1: very big year for the US, isn't it, with the

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Speaker 1: presidential election later in the year. And you've got a

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Speaker 1: fantastic interview this morning coming up after the show, with

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Speaker 1: doctor Kevin Hebner, global investment strategist at Epoch Investment Partners

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Speaker 1: based in New York.

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Speaker 2: So we talk about what's going to happen if Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump wins the election, What's going to happen to markets,

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Speaker 2: what's going to happen to tax reform, et cetera, What's

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Speaker 2: going to happen if Joe Biden wins the election. Now,

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Speaker 2: Kevin has great insights into what the political economy means

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Speaker 2: for the actual the real economy, and what it might

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Speaker 2: mean for you know, through corporate tax rates and inflation,

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Speaker 2: and what it means for Mark. It's like Australia as well.

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Speaker 2: So it's a fascinating chap.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, sure it is coming up after the show, so

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Speaker 1: stick around for that one. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news Shawn.

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Speaker 1: The relationship between Beijing and Canberra is back on track,

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Speaker 1: according to Chinese Premier League Chung, who will today meet

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi.

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Speaker 2: Miss Lee's visit is the most senior ministerial trip to

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Speaker 2: Australia since twenty seventeen, and started in Adelaide over the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Mister Lee said shelving differences had helped get the bilateral

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Speaker 2: relationship back on track after a period of twists and turns.

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Speaker 2: In a statement, He went on to say that China

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Speaker 2: stands ready to work with Australia. A more mature, stable

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Speaker 2: and fruitful, comprehensive strategic partnership will be a treasure shared

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Speaker 2: by both countries. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the visit

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Speaker 2: was a culmination of two years of diplomacy to bring

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Speaker 2: about a stabilization of the relationship. Trading Tourism Minister Don

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Speaker 2: far All rejected suggestions that Canberra had cowtowed to Beijing,

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Speaker 2: and of course there was a bit of panda diplomacy

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Speaker 2: as well, with South Australian Premier Peter malan Orcus saying

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Speaker 2: the announcement that two pandas will replace Wang Wang and

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Speaker 2: fu Ni at Adelaide Zoo, well, he said, it's a

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Speaker 2: big deal.

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Speaker 1: It is a big deal. I love the panda diplomacy thing.

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Speaker 1: Do we swap something like? Do it? Do we sound

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Speaker 1: like over a couple of bin chickens or something?

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking koalas and gangoos. You're thinking of IAS's the natives.

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Speaker 2: They are natives and be lovely.

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Speaker 1: Beijing would be feeling ripped off they go to the zoo.

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Speaker 2: What is that?

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Speaker 1: It's just picking through the bins? Yeah, Okay, maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: Kohal is a better I'm not a born diplomat here, Sean.

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Speaker 2: No, obviously.

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Speaker 1: Now, the Reserve Bankboard commences a two day meeting today,

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Speaker 1: which culminates in its announcements on interest rates tomorrow. But

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Speaker 1: no one expects any change in rates.

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Speaker 2: It will be five policy meetings in a row without

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Speaker 2: a change, according to both market economists and bond investors.

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Speaker 1: No doubt.

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock will say nothing is ruled

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Speaker 2: in and nothing is ruled out when asked that very

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Speaker 2: question in the press conference tomorrow. Bond markets are priced

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Speaker 2: in a rate cut by April next year. It says

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Speaker 2: there's a thirty percent chance of one this year. Three

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Speaker 2: of the four big banks still think there could be

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Speaker 2: a rate cut some point this year, but I've got

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Speaker 2: to say most of the market economists are now pushing

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Speaker 2: out the timeline many into next year. The Central Bank

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Speaker 2: is contending with a slightly inflationary federal budget. Why I

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Speaker 2: say that is because when the budget was handed down

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Speaker 2: in early May, there was plenty of debate over whether

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Speaker 2: it added to inflationary pressures. Something Jim Chalmers, the Treasurer,

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Speaker 2: said it didn't do. An internal document from Reserve Bank,

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Speaker 2: released under a Freedom of information request shows that the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank economists at least think the budget is slightly expansionary.

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Speaker 1: And certainly worth tuning into. Fear and greed. The Week Ahead,

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Speaker 1: featuring our resident economist Stephen Coucoulis, it comes up straight

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Speaker 1: after this episode. He's always very much worth listening to

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Speaker 1: his views on what the Reserve Bank does.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. We talk about the numbers from last week,

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Speaker 2: which is the labor force numbers, and then we talk

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Speaker 2: about what's coming up this week. Of course, the big

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Speaker 2: news this week is the Reserve Bank meeting. Probably less

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Speaker 2: about the actual interest rate because no one thinks that's

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Speaker 2: going to change, but certainly seems interested in what the

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank has to say.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, indeed, all right now, Bitcoin sean very exciting coming

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Speaker 1: to the ASX, with the first Bitcoin exchange traded fund,

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Speaker 1: marketed by van Neck, to debut on Thursday.

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Speaker 2: The Bitcoin ETF is the first on the local exchange

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Speaker 2: and it will track the price of bitcoin, which is

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Speaker 2: far and away the most widely held and actively traded cryptocurrency.

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Speaker 2: One of the world's biggest investment management companies, van x

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Speaker 2: local boss Arion Neron is quoted in the media saying

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Speaker 2: that bitcoin is an emerging asset class that many advisors

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Speaker 2: and investors want. The approval comes six months after the

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Speaker 2: US Securities and Exchange Commission approved at nine bitcoin ETFs

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Speaker 2: over there. For many retail investors, it makes investing in

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Speaker 2: bitcoin just much much easier because they can go and

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Speaker 2: buy and sell the ETF on the share market just

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Speaker 2: like their trading b HP or Commonwealth Bank. So it

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Speaker 2: actually just if nothing else, it just makes trading a

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Speaker 2: lot easier for people.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and of course we are certainly not an investing podcast.

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Speaker 1: You should see professional advice before making investment decisions. Sean

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Speaker 1: AGL Energy has warned that the investment case for new

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Speaker 1: wind and solar generation is quote tricky, and that the

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Speaker 1: group will instead focus on hydro gas and batteries.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The comments came after rival Origin Energy said it

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Speaker 2: would minimize its solar and wind asset ownership and focus

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Speaker 2: on renewable energy purchase contracts, rooftop solar, batteries and gas.

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Speaker 2: Of course, AGL and Origin are going through this transition

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Speaker 2: stage and they haven't really made it clear how they're

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Speaker 2: going to get there, and so this is all part

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Speaker 2: of that, agl's chief operating Officer, Marcus Brockoff said AGL

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Speaker 2: would also ramp up its direct investment in energy firming assets,

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Speaker 2: specifically hydro. He told the Financial Review that AGL would

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Speaker 2: invest in everything from batteries to pumped hydra facilities and

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Speaker 2: gas fired power stations. Investment case for solarist tricky because

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Speaker 2: their peak power generation times during the day coincide with

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Speaker 2: the lowest demand. Wind generation is similarly tricky because revenues

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Speaker 2: are relatively low. He said, Hydro is undervalued when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the energy transition, as it opens up deep

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Speaker 2: storage capabilities for the energy market, plugging a gap that

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Speaker 2: has plagued the renewable sector as the development of lascale

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Speaker 2: batteries just well, they're floundering. Really, it just hasn't kind

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Speaker 2: of worked as people had hoped, and that's why hydro,

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Speaker 2: which opens up these deep storage capabilities, is so promising Sean.

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Speaker 1: According to new data from Ensuring Allions Australia in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three, workers took an average of seventy six days

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Speaker 1: off work for each compensation claim primarily linked to a

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Speaker 1: mental health condition.

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Speaker 2: It amounted to six hundred and fifty five thousand days

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Speaker 2: of work lost to workplace mental health injuries last year

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Speaker 2: across one hundred and fifty five thousand employers ensured by Allions.

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Speaker 2: The most common cause of injury complain were work related

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Speaker 2: harassment and bullying, work pressure and work stress burnout. According

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Speaker 2: to a story in The Australian Now, the numbers are

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Speaker 2: very similar to government agency Safe Work Australia, which puts

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Speaker 2: the total time loss to serious claims for work related

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Speaker 2: mental health conditions in the economy at five hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty nine thousand, or just short of five hundred and

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Speaker 2: eighty nine thousand working weeks. Allions's chief General Manager of

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Speaker 2: Personal Injury, Julie Mitchell said the significant increase in claim

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Speaker 2: volumes predated COVID nineteen and it's been driven by factors

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Speaker 2: including a rise in violent customer behavior against frontline workers,

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Speaker 2: reducing the stigma around disclosing mental health issues, employee expectations,

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Speaker 2: empowering more workers to call out bad behavior, and the

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Speaker 2: rise in cost of living putting more strain on the workforce.

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Speaker 1: All Right turning to International News Now and tens of

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Speaker 1: thousands of protesters took to the streets across France over

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Speaker 1: the weekend to oppose Marine La Penn's far right National Party,

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Speaker 1: which is predicted to finish first in the upcoming snap

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Speaker 1: legislative election.

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Speaker 2: The demonstrator said they wanted to call attention to the

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Speaker 2: Nationalist Party's policies on human rights, the environment, equal rights

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Speaker 2: in economic matters. According to Bloomberg, Macron's decision to call

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Speaker 2: an election was designed to sure up he supported Home,

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Speaker 2: but he opened the door to La Penn taking control

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Speaker 2: of the French government. Macron himself will remain president until

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty seven, but certainly if Lea Penn is in

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Speaker 2: control of the government, it makes his job as president

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Speaker 2: far far more difficult. Further complicating matters from Macron, a

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Speaker 2: group of four left leaning parties agreed to join forces

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Speaker 2: with Poles, indicating that that coalition of could actually become

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Speaker 2: the second biggest block ahead of the President's Renaissance Party.

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Speaker 2: A lot of strife for Emmanual Mcron at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, now shown this last story is actually really

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Speaker 1: quite alarming. A disease caused by a rare flash eating

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Speaker 1: bacteria that can kill people within forty eight hours is

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Speaker 1: spreading in Japan after the country relaxed covid era restrictions.

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Speaker 2: Cases of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome has reached nine hundred

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Speaker 2: and seventy seven so far this year, higher than the

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Speaker 2: record nine hundred and forty one cases reported for all

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Speaker 2: of last year, According to the National Institute of Infectious

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Speaker 2: Diseases in Japan, Groupei stript to Coccus typically causes swelling

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Speaker 2: and sore throats in children, known as strip's throat, but

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Speaker 2: some types of the bacteria can lead to symptoms developing rapidly,

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Speaker 2: including limp pain and swelling, fever, low blood pressure that

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Speaker 2: can be followed by necrosis, breathing problems, organ failure, and

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Speaker 2: even death. People over fifty are more prone to the disease.

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Speaker 2: This is according to report on Bloomberg. Most of the

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Speaker 2: deaths happen within forty eight hours now. Other countries have

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Speaker 2: experienced recent outbreaks as well. In late twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: at least five European nations reported to the World's Health

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Speaker 2: Organization and increasing cases of Streptococcus disease. The World Health

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Speaker 2: Organization said that the rise in cases followed the end

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Speaker 2: of COVID restrictions. At the current rate of infections. The

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Speaker 2: number of cases in Japan could reach twenty five hundred

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Speaker 2: this year with an absolutely terrifying mortality rate of thirty percent.

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Speaker 1: That's a very grim story to finish on, Sean.

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Speaker 2: It is. I'm sorry, we are ending on a very

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Speaker 2: grim story, Michael.

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Speaker 1: That is that is all right, all right. Up next though,

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Speaker 1: Sean is Fear and Greed The Weakerhead featuring Stephen Cocolis,

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Speaker 1: as we mentioned, and then after that doctor Kevin Hebner,

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Speaker 1: global investment strategist at Epoch Investment Partners.

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Speaker 2: This is a great listen, yep, all about what a

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Speaker 2: Biden win or a Trump win in the US poll

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Speaker 2: in November this year means for tax rates, global markets,

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Speaker 2: austral markets. It's a great chat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is. It is coming up in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: can sign up for the Fear and Greed weekly newsletter,

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Speaker 1: which comes out on Wednesday. So there's never been a

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Speaker 1: better time than right now to pop your email addressing

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Speaker 1: and make sure that you are in the queue. Well

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Speaker 1: there's not really a que is there. In kind of email.

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Speaker 2: Speak no, probably not, probably not no.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, but just do it. Just put your email

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Speaker 1: addressing and you'll get the newsletter. I'm sure there's a

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Speaker 1: more technical kind of way that it happens, but as

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Speaker 1: far as I know, put your email addressing and it

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Speaker 1: will lob mid morning on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the seventeenth of June twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.