WEBVTT -  Israel’s Arab kingmakers: Which PM will blink first?

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, December 30, 2026. The Victorian Court of Appeal

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<v Speaker 1>will today hand down its decision on an appeal bid

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<v Speaker 1>by mushroom killer Erin Patterson. The 52-year-old was convicted last

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<v Speaker 1>year of the murders of three elderly relatives and the

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<v Speaker 1>attempted murder of another. Patterson argued errors by the trial judge,

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<v Speaker 1>an unfair cross-examination and irregularities in jury accommodation during deliberations

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<v Speaker 1>meant she didn't get a fair trial. We'll be covering

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<v Speaker 1>the result live at theaustralian.com.au. Israel's gloriously messy democracy has

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<v Speaker 1>thrown up a real doozy. Parliamentary elections that have two

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<v Speaker 1>potential prime ministers both saying the other guy lost. One

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<v Speaker 1>thing they can agree on, they won't go into coalition

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<v Speaker 1>with Arab parties, throw in the religious nationalists and the settlers,

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<v Speaker 1>and we might be heading towards another election very soon.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan's here in just a moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Many Israelis went to bed expecting a victory for opposition

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<v Speaker 2>leader Gadi Eisenkopf. but woke to find Netanyahu the favorite

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<v Speaker 2>to leave.

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<v Speaker 1>The results leave Israel facing the prospect of political gridlock.

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<v Speaker 2>Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main opponent, Gary Isengard,

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<v Speaker 2>have enough seats to form a government.

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<v Speaker 3>There's not only weeks ahead of us of negotiations, but

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<v Speaker 3>there's no clear direction that the country has chosen to go.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is the Australian's foreign editor, and like me,

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<v Speaker 1>he's been poring over the results of the Israeli election.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm finding it quite stressful to work out what on

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<v Speaker 1>earth is going on. Greg, I suspect you might be

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<v Speaker 1>quite enjoying this.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, statistically, it's magnificent, Claire. The Israeli people have produced

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<v Speaker 2>an exquisitely impossible result, which is so perfectly tuned to

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<v Speaker 2>make no government possible whatsoever. Proportional representation is is a

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<v Speaker 2>weird enough system to start with. But then Israel has

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<v Speaker 2>two Arab parties which don't really sign up to the

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<v Speaker 2>Zionist project. So it's very, very difficult for the mainstream

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<v Speaker 2>parties to make a coalition with them. And everybody, whichever

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<v Speaker 2>way you look at it, is short of a majority

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<v Speaker 2>unless they do things which they've absolutely promised their voters

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<v Speaker 2>they won't do. So my guess is the most likely

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<v Speaker 2>outcome is you get no government. Netanyahu remains caretaker. And

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<v Speaker 2>we have new elections next March.

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<v Speaker 1>It really is amazing that we are still talking about

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Netanyahu as this dominant figure, isn't it? This is

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<v Speaker 1>the first election, of course, since October 7, 2023. During

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<v Speaker 1>the attack, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 others

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<v Speaker 1>were taken hostage. But Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be killed off,

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<v Speaker 1>even though we've heard Israelis protesting in the street about him.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had serious attacks on him by people who were

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<v Speaker 1>once in his war cabinet, including Gadi Eisenkot, his main opponent.

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<v Speaker 1>What is it about Benjamin Netanyahu that Israelis just can't

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<v Speaker 1>let go of?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's his longevity and his security brand.

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<v Speaker 2>I've probably interviewed him more often than any other Australian.

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<v Speaker 2>I first met him in the early 1980s when he

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<v Speaker 2>was Israel's ambassador to the United Nations. I interviewed him

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<v Speaker 2>when he was foreign minister and finance minister. He is

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<v Speaker 2>an extremely formidable guy. There's no doubt about that. He

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<v Speaker 2>has a tremendous will to power and a tremendous ability

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<v Speaker 2>to make everything about himself. But he has done great

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<v Speaker 2>things for Israel in the past. I mean, as finance minister,

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<v Speaker 2>he created the startup country and all that. I think

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu has definitely lost some seats. But the last telling,

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<v Speaker 2>it looks like his coalition has 53 seats and it

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<v Speaker 2>needs 61 to govern. That's why I say this is

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<v Speaker 2>an exquisitely impossible election. So Two of the parties against

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<v Speaker 2>him are led by men who used to be his

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<v Speaker 2>chief of staff, Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett. Can you

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<v Speaker 2>imagine that? Can you imagine Peter Credlin running a political

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<v Speaker 2>party in opposition to Tony Abbott or something like this?

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<v Speaker 2>But even if one of those joined his coalition now,

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<v Speaker 2>that would bring him up to 60 votes, not 61.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's even worse on the other side because they've

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<v Speaker 2>only got 49 votes. So they cannot govern without the

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<v Speaker 2>support of the Israeli Arab Party's A whole heap of

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<v Speaker 2>members of their coalition, including Eisenkot himself, but also Bennett

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<v Speaker 2>and Lieberman, have said they, under no circumstances, will they

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<v Speaker 2>govern with the support of the Arab parties. That means

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<v Speaker 2>if they do do that, their voters will be very

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<v Speaker 2>cross with them. If they have to go to an

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<v Speaker 2>election in six months because the government falls, those parties

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<v Speaker 2>that do that could easily be wiped out. God bless

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli voter. This is fantastic for journalists all around

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<v Speaker 2>the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, of course, one of the reasons to support Israel

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<v Speaker 1>is it is this messy, vibrant democracy where there is

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<v Speaker 1>a real contest going on here. And of course, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that supporters of Israel say is that

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<v Speaker 1>in this population of 10 million, there are 2 million Arabs.

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<v Speaker 1>They vote. They are represented in the Knesset. But now

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<v Speaker 1>we see both these potential prime ministers effectively ruling out

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<v Speaker 1>governing with the Arab parties. What does that tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about Israeli democracy, though, Greg? Does that tell us that,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, even Gadi Eizenkot, who says that we can

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<v Speaker 1>all unite around a belief that Israel has a right

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<v Speaker 1>to exist? Yes, that is true, except not if it

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<v Speaker 1>includes the Arabs.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, this is a really good question, Claire, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>so complex and so multidimensional. It's not that much more

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<v Speaker 2>than the Labor Party saying it won't govern in coalition

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<v Speaker 2>with the Greens or the Liberals saying they won't govern

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<v Speaker 2>in coalition with one nation. I do think proportional representation

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<v Speaker 2>has a lot of blame to bear.

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<v Speaker 4>Here, because even 30 or 40 years ago, the basic

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<v Speaker 4>electoral contest in Israel was Likud, centre-right, just normal conservative party,

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<v Speaker 4>and Labor, one of the great parties in the world,

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<v Speaker 4>the Israeli Labor Party.

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<v Speaker 2>Whereas proportional representation encourages you, if you can get 5%

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<v Speaker 2>or 10% of the vote, better to get your little block,

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<v Speaker 2>then you can make deals which favour your block. So

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<v Speaker 2>The Bedouin Arabs vote for the Ram Party. The other

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli Arabs vote for the United List. It's not just

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<v Speaker 2>that the other parties say they won't govern with the Arabs.

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<v Speaker 2>The Arabs have traditionally said they won't join a coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>But Israeli Arabs themselves are subject to a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>contradictory pressures. And theoretically, they're not really Zionist parties. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's very difficult to govern with a party which says

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<v Speaker 2>we don't actually believe in the existence of a Jewish state.

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<v Speaker 2>Or they might say, we are so opposed to the

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli presence in the West Bank that we demand immediate evacuation.

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<v Speaker 2>Or they might say, we're not going to label Hamas terrorists. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>the Ram leader, that's the pragmatic Arab party, refused to

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<v Speaker 2>label Hamas a terrorist organization within the last 24 hours. Well, Eisencott, Bennett, Lieberman.

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<v Speaker 2>They can't look their voters in the eye and say, well,

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to make him minister for the environment or something.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just impossible. But the particular combination of proportional representation

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<v Speaker 2>and the personality of Netanyahu means that the natural centre-right majority,

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<v Speaker 2>which is there, can't bring itself together. So Eisenkot's party

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<v Speaker 2>is a centre-right party. He's a conservative guy. He's a

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<v Speaker 2>former chief of the Israeli Defence Force. He was in

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu's cabinet. Bennett is a former chief of staff to

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu when he was leader of the Likud. Lieberman was

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<v Speaker 2>a former chief of staff to Netanyahu and then a

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<v Speaker 2>foreign minister and a defence minister in Netanyahu governments. All

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<v Speaker 2>these guys belong in one coalition. They all represent centre-right parties,

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<v Speaker 2>but their personal animosities are so great. So Lieberman and

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<v Speaker 2>Bennett say they'll never, ever serve with Netanyahu again. And

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<v Speaker 2>you've got to say, Netanyahu... He's not the easiest fellow

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<v Speaker 2>to get along with in a coalition government. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>he doesn't create a lot of space for alternative leaders

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<v Speaker 2>to emerge and flourish. So in my view, there's a

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<v Speaker 2>completely coherent, natural, set-of-right majority in the Israeli electorate. But

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<v Speaker 2>the interaction of personalities and proportional representation means that you

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<v Speaker 2>just can't get there. And Israeli voters will either have

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<v Speaker 2>to sort it out in another election and give one

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<v Speaker 2>side or the other a majority, or they... we'll have

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<v Speaker 2>to change the system.

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<v Speaker 1>You mentioned Shasta and United Torah. They're the two parties

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<v Speaker 1>that a lot of Haredi, ultra-Orthodox Israelis support. Netanyahu needs them.

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<v Speaker 1>They're in that 53-seat coalition that you mentioned that's forming

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment, Greg. But he's promised them an exemption

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<v Speaker 1>from compulsory military service. The Supreme Court keeps striking down

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<v Speaker 1>his attempts to actually deliver that for him. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you think is going to happen there, especially given that

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<v Speaker 1>the issue of whether ultra-Orthodox young people are allowed to

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<v Speaker 1>avoid military service is so hot with other Israelis who

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<v Speaker 1>believe that that's completely unfair?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, this is where the proportional representation is so important.

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<v Speaker 2>So Shas on the latest figures looks as though it's

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<v Speaker 2>going to get seven members of the Knesset and United

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<v Speaker 2>Torah Judaism, seven. So that's 14. That's a lot less

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<v Speaker 2>than the Arab. So the ultra-Orthodox Israelis voting as ultra-Orthodox

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<v Speaker 2>We'll get far fewer representatives than Arab Israelis. But Netanyahu

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<v Speaker 2>cannot possibly be in government without them. It's absolutely impossible.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the only ways that Eisenhower could get to

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<v Speaker 2>government would be if he got ran, so he'd have

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<v Speaker 2>to defy everything that he promised where he said he

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<v Speaker 2>wouldn't govern with Arabs. but if he got the ram

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<v Speaker 2>party to give him support from outside the coalition say

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<v Speaker 2>confidence and supply and shas has said if eisenkot will

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<v Speaker 2>do the right thing from their point of view on

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<v Speaker 2>exempting the haredi they go and support him so eisenkot

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<v Speaker 2>will face the same choice as netanyahu i can have

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<v Speaker 2>a government maybe But I can only do it if

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<v Speaker 2>I don't make the Haredi serve in the army. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court says the Haredi have got to serve,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's illegal to exempt them and all that sort

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<v Speaker 2>of thing. But Netanyahu as prime minister just says, well, okay,

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<v Speaker 2>you can say whatever you like, but I'm not going

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<v Speaker 2>to pass a law penalizing them. And the two ultra-Orthodox parties,

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<v Speaker 2>so this is a criticism of them. I have a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of respect for them. I've spent time with their

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<v Speaker 2>communities in Israel proper and in the West Bank. They're

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<v Speaker 2>deeply religious people. They're serious. They're not frivolous. They're not

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<v Speaker 2>corrupt in any way. But it's, in my view, completely

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<v Speaker 2>unsustainable that 15% of the population doesn't serve in the

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<v Speaker 2>army and doesn't serve in the economy. But that's their

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<v Speaker 2>only issue. So they'll go with left or right. And

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<v Speaker 2>that makes them very powerful because neither side can possibly

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<v Speaker 2>govern without them.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, what about the settler violence that's done such

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<v Speaker 1>harm to Israel's global reputation?

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<v Speaker 5>Settlement movement has provoked waves of deadly violence from both sides.

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<v Speaker 5>In the last two years, violent ultra-nationalist settlers have significantly

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<v Speaker 5>intensified their attacks on Palestinians with tacit support from Israeli authorities.

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<v Speaker 1>What about the settlers, Greg? One of the issues that

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<v Speaker 1>even supporters of Israel struggle to come to terms with

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<v Speaker 1>in their own minds is Jewish settlers involved in violence

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<v Speaker 1>against Palestinians. Those parties too, the parties that are supported

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<v Speaker 1>by many of those settlers, are also in Netanyahu's coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>How does Netanyahu manage that issue, especially if we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to deal with another election? He can't betray the settlers

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<v Speaker 1>who voted essentially for his coalition.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, again, it's very complicated. Lots of shades of grey.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Israel is five million shades of grey. So

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<v Speaker 2>the term settler is a very broad term. When people

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<v Speaker 2>like Penny Wong or Anthony Albanese airily talk about settlers,

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<v Speaker 2>they typically mean every Israeli who lives in territory beyond

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<v Speaker 2>the 1967 borders. So that includes all the Jews in

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<v Speaker 2>the Jewish quarter of East Jerusalem, and it includes the

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<v Speaker 2>vast majority of settlers who are completely peaceful and law-abiding

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<v Speaker 2>and not religious fanatics or anything else. However, there is

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<v Speaker 2>a minority of extreme nationalists. Now, I think Israel is

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<v Speaker 2>an ethical and humane country, but it has been coarsened

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<v Speaker 2>by decades and decades and decades of hatred and bitterness

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<v Speaker 2>and visceral violence and terrorism and repeated military assaults. And

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<v Speaker 2>there are two parties that reflect an extremist view. Religious Zionism,

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<v Speaker 2>which is led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Otzma Yehudit, which

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<v Speaker 2>is led by Itamar Ben-Gabir. Itamar Ben-Gabir is particularly seen

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<v Speaker 2>as being semi-complicit in this tiny fringe of people who

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<v Speaker 2>are enacting violence against Palestinians in their own villages. This

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<v Speaker 2>is completely wrong. It's wicked. It's bad. It's a small

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<v Speaker 2>number of people. Now, I think it's a weakness of Netanyahu.

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<v Speaker 2>I have great criticism of Netanyahu that the Israeli government

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<v Speaker 2>has not been much more active in enforcing the law.

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<v Speaker 2>It's quite clear Netanyahu has not at any moment endorsed

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<v Speaker 2>any of this unlawful activity. And the fact that he

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<v Speaker 2>can't get a normal majority with Bennett and Lieberman and

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<v Speaker 2>Gadi means that he has to ally with these extreme

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<v Speaker 2>right-wing nationalist parties. And They give a wink and a

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<v Speaker 2>nod to some of this violence. Netanyahu will never betray

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<v Speaker 2>the settlers, the 600,000, but he should absolutely enforce Israel's law.

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<v Speaker 3>There's been a real bad outbreak of crime in the

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<v Speaker 3>Arab-Israeli population because the police are not making any effort

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<v Speaker 3>to enforce the law within that population.

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<v Speaker 2>So criminal gangs and so forth. are operating with very

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<v Speaker 2>little police interference. Israeli Arabs will talk about Palestinian issues sometimes,

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<v Speaker 2>or their leadership will, but they're much more concerned with,

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<v Speaker 2>are our villages getting properly funded? Are the police turning

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<v Speaker 2>up to look after us? But nonetheless, this is something

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<v Speaker 2>new in Israel, and it's something horrible. And because Netanyahu

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<v Speaker 2>can't get to government without these two ultra right-wing parties,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that makes him slack in enforcing the law

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<v Speaker 2>against that extremist small minority of settlers who are breaking

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<v Speaker 2>the law and who are guilty of violence against Palestinians.

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<v Speaker 1>Greg Sheridan is The Australian's foreign editor. You can read

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<v Speaker 1>his analysis of the Israeli election and all the world's

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<v Speaker 1>best news right now at theaustralian.com.au.