1 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to a Fear and Greed bonus interview. I'm Sean al. 2 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,560 Speaker 1: Global uncertainty has seen central banks and investors alike blocked 3 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,079 Speaker 1: to the safe haven of gold, pushing the price of 4 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: the precious metal to record highs. So what's it meant 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,479 Speaker 1: for the Aussie gold miners. Well, generally it's been pretty 6 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:22,919 Speaker 1: good news. As always, this is general information only. You 7 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: should always seek independent advice before making investment decisions. Sean 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: Whyke is a senior investment analyst at Wilson Asset Management. 9 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: Sean and welcome back to Fear and Greed. 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: Thanks very much for having me. 11 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: It seems that plenty game for gold at the moment. 12 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: We've got uncertainty, we've got corporate activity, we've got central 13 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: banks in love with the precious metal. Has there ever 14 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: been a better time for gold? 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 2: Yeah? And China selling US treasuries and buying gold tour. 16 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: So it's all happening for gold. I mean when we 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 2: caught up back in January, I mean, the core forces 18 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: driving the gold price remain largely unchanged. But what I'd 19 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 2: say more recently, you know, it was with Trump's tariff regime, 20 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: it's clearly amplified the demand for gold. Obviously, geopolitical risks arising, 21 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 2: you're seeing increased central bank buying, and obviously that the 22 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 2: inflationary risk around tariffs. And what we've actually seen more 23 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 2: recently which is quite interesting, is the inflows into gold 24 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 2: ETFs have started to turn positive in the last month, 25 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 2: So you know, you've now got retail buying coming into 26 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: Is it. 27 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: Risky given the gold price and given the valuation of 28 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: gold stocks, You don't kind of want to get it 29 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:35,640 Speaker 1: wrong because there is certainly room to fall when you're 30 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: a gold miner trading at the valuations they're training at 31 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: the moment. 32 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think the outlook now for gold 33 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: is getting a bit more tricky. It clearly does depend 34 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: on your investment time frame. But we still think it's 35 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: got a place in portfolios for sure as a hedge. 36 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 2: But you know, we've seen significant share price appreciation over 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: the past twelve months. Valuations themselves, you know, aren't super 38 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: demanding in the context of where spot prices are, but 39 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: you know, the question there's clear question marks around the 40 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 2: sustainability of that. Like, arguably geopolitical risks are at that 41 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 2: peak now under the assumption that tariff deeels are progressively stark. 42 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 2: And you know, if you see Julio political tensions de 43 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 2: escalate and global growth improve, then you know, I think 44 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: God will get belted in that scenario. So yeah, we 45 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 2: you're never able to time these things perfectly, but we're 46 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: certainly mindful of the risks, you know, both to the 47 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: upside and the downside. At the moment, do. 48 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: You think you will keep seeing the corporate activity? 49 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 2: So? 50 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: I think we have Northern Star trying to buy to Gray, 51 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: We've got gold Road resources being bid for from South 52 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: African organizations. A couple of the smaller guys are talking 53 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: about merging. Do you expect to see that to continue 54 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: through the year. 55 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:53,079 Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, I think M and I activity is likely 56 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 2: to continue to be elevated. As you know, really the 57 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 2: well funded players look to take advantage of improved balance 58 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 2: sheets and consolid the smaller, you know, underfunded players to 59 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 2: try and grow their production effectively. You know what we're 60 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 2: seeing here domestically, like the gold stocks, which the market 61 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: perceeeds to have good management, teams with a strong track 62 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 2: record of delivery and production growth are continuing to attract 63 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: a significant premium. So yeah, I think their best place 64 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 2: to take out you know, some of the underperforming, underfunded 65 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,360 Speaker 2: projects and drive that consolidation. 66 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: What are a couple of gold stocks that you particularly 67 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: like on that basis. 68 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, one we've liked, you know, is Genesis Minerals. It's 69 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: it's a great example of this. I mean, the company's 70 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 2: ran by Rally Finnisson, who's responsible for building Saras and 71 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 2: medals up to a five billion dollar company before it 72 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: was sold to Northern Star. You know, their recent quarterly 73 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: production update was strong. You know, it's looking i think 74 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 2: conservative into the fourth quarter, and you know, we think 75 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: there's a fair bit of optionality around their projects that 76 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: could really drive you know, a significant uplist to production 77 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 2: versus that expectations as we look out the next sort 78 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 2: of twelve to eight en months. 79 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: You mentioned the capex in some of these miners is huge, 80 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: and some of these mines and you still fetching big 81 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: miners are fetching big prices even then they're even producing gold. 82 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 1: At this point there's still kind of pre production and 83 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: probably beyond exploration, but pre production it's getting expensive. 84 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you always tend to see a lot 85 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: of m and at the top, even the larger players 86 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: have such good balance sheets, and they've got you know, 87 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: extra so much you know, cash flooding in that they 88 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 2: can't really help themselves. So yeah, I mean clearly a 89 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 2: lot of these projects are dependent on the gold price 90 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 2: remaining strong. So you know, if you do come under 91 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: a scenario where the gold price materially weekends, then yeah, 92 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 2: a lot of the as the buffet saying, guys, you 93 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 2: know you've got to wait till the tide goes out 94 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 2: to see who's naked. So yeah, it'll be it'll be 95 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 2: interesting to say, you know, if we do see some 96 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: gold price weakness, sort of how it all plays out. 97 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,679 Speaker 1: Sean, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 98 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 2: Thanks very much. 99 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: Sewan Wikes on your investment analyst at Wilson Asset Management, 100 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,799 Speaker 1: and remember to get your own independent advice before making 101 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 1: investment decisions. This is the Fear and Greed A bonus interview. 102 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 1: I'm Sean Almer. Enjoy your day.