WEBVTT - The pitches from budget critics: How do they stack up? 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:04.040 There are certain traditions and rhythms around the Federal budget. 0:00:04.160 --> 0:00:06.960 There's a particular tree at Parliament House that always turns 0:00:07.040 --> 0:00:10.760 red Ozzie's coffee shop. Inside the building heaves with lobbyists 0:00:10.800 --> 0:00:13.680 and anyone with even the most remote connection to be 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.759 in Canberra and shows not usually interested in politics. 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:19.320 Well they give it a crack. 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:23.520 Prime Minister. That debt isn't necessarily real, it's a number, 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.480 and that I think most governments, not just the Australian government, 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:28.440 governments around the world. They know that the world's going 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:31.240 to be ending at some point in the future. So 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.600 you guys are just going to continue spending because who cares. 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:35.000 The debt won't exist when the world's done. 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:37.960 Anyway, Well, we are not planning for the end of 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:43.320 the world. What we are doing is that a better 0:00:43.400 --> 0:00:47.479 future rather than no future, which is what the end 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:52.040 of the world would represent. But thank you for the contribution. 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:01.760 From Schwartz Media in seven Am. I'm Ashlan McGhee. This 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:05.959 is the cost inside the living crisis. It's now we're 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:09.280 starting to get a real sense of how the budget's landing. 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:11.680 So as the treasure is spent. 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.399 Enough to help people out and we'll even remember it 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:17.720 when it comes time to vote. Today contributor to the 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.680 Saturday Paper, Paul bon Jorno on where the battle lines 0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:39.959 are being drawn. It's Thursday, May sixteenth, So Paul, this 0:01:40.160 --> 0:01:42.800 budget is only thirty six hours old. But we know 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:45.080 we're going to be talking about this one a lot 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.480 as we head towards the next election and as we 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:49.840 try to get out of this cost of living crisis. 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:52.960 So what are the early criticisms that we've heard of 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:53.480 the budget? 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.520 Well, Ash, it was a shadow treasurer Angus Taylor's job 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:02.120 to be the first coalition to hit the airwaves just 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.600 an hour or so after the budget was delivered, and 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:09.040 from the coalition's point of view, there's a lot hanging 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:10.560 on Taylor's performance. 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.080 Angus Taylor, welcome to the program. 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:15.760 Could to be with you? 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.360 So I just heard a discussion well on the ABC 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.600 seven thirty program with Sarah Ferguson after the budget was delivered. 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:26.639 He attempted to skewer the government by saying it had 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:31.359 spent too much and that spending would make inflation worse. 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:34.959 If your plan to spend a lot of money, it's inflationary. 0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:38.440 We've got a sixteen percent increase in spending over two 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.000 years and the economy is only growing at closer to 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:44.760 seven percent, So that's spending growing at double the pace 0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:46.280 of the economy and. 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.280 That But the problem for Taylor is earlier in the 0:02:49.360 --> 0:02:52.639 day before the budget was delivered, he'd been out there 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:57.280 saying the government wasn't spending enough to support households. This 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.880 left him in a pretty uncomfortable position when asked whether 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:05.000 the Opposition would support the government's support for households. 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.239 Do you support the government's billions of dollars in subsidies 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:11.520 to those struggling Australians Do you support that? 0:03:11.800 --> 0:03:13.919 Well, what's clear in this budget is they're not going 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:15.880 to the source of the problem. They're putting a band 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:17.160 aid on a bullet wound. 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:20.200 I me just staying with that particular question do you support. 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:23.400 But this is the context is incredibly important and I 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:24.240 will answer that question. 0:03:24.280 --> 0:03:29.320 But the context, well, ultimately he said the budget was 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.200 a band aid on a bullet wound. But with the 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:36.240 election looming, he didn't make the same mistake the Opposition 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:40.560 made with the first Energy Bill relief package. You might 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.880 remember they voted against it. Well, this time with an 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:48.400 election looming within twelve months, at the latest they'll be 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:49.520 voting for it. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:54.120 So we will support that, but not because we think 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:58.560 that's ultimately the right answer. Labor has failed to deliver 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.559 the energy price reductions they promised before they came to power. 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:07.360 And so the coalition itself hasn't pulled together a coherent 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:11.320 story to really help its shadow treasurer to get onto 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:14.720 the front foot. It sort of leaves him with nothing 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:20.920 much more than strident criticism. So on Wednesday morning, Peter 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:23.839 Dutton had to go and we got his first reaction. 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:27.440 Peter Dutton, thanks for joining am Pleasure Sabra. Thank you, 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:30.679 every household rich and Paul will get three hundred dollars. 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:33.960 He confirmed the Opposition would vote for the government's student 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:37.120 debt relief and energy bill relief and rent relief. 0:04:37.200 --> 0:04:39.520 So are you going to support it or not, Well, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:40.560 we'll support. 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:44.039 Measures which provide relief and obviously this comes in this 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:47.440 budget before the election in any case, but we do 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:52.200 know that families under this budget, a typical Australian household 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:54.960 with a mortgage is more than thirty five thousand dollars 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:55.640 worse off. 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:58.760 Okay, that is a huge. 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.440 Dutton picked up on the concerns of many in the commentariat, 0:05:02.120 --> 0:05:05.159 you know, economists and the like, that the budget risks 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:11.080 fueling inflation, despite the Treasurer's confidence it won't. But Dutton 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:13.520 may well be right that Australians may have to wait 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.920 longer for an interest rate cut or inflation may well 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:20.560 rebound sometime in the future. 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:23.000 What they're sneakly trying to do is get an interest 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:26.000 rate reduction before the election, but then rates will jump 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:28.920 back up after. So I think there's a spoken mirrors 0:05:28.920 --> 0:05:30.839 game going on here, and giving three hundred dollars to 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.800 people who are promised much more than that by why 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:36.280 of reduction of their power prices is just not going 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:37.560 to cut it for the average family. 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.880 This makes tonight's budget reply speech all the more interesting. 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.120 Surely the pressure is now unduteen to come up with 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:50.080 some serious and costed alternative policies. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:52.600 Right So, do we have any sense of what the 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:55.560 opposition's alternative would be here? Like, what hints do we 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:57.919 have about what that'd be doing with the budget right now? 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:00.680 Well, there have been hints in the last days that 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:04.960 they could promise even greater tax cuts. Angus Taylor and 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:08.880 Senator Jane Hume, the Shadow Finance minister have made hints 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:11.760 in the media that this is the direction they intend 0:06:11.839 --> 0:06:14.800 to go in Treasure Jim Chalmers has responded to those 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:17.480 hints by putting the pressure on the Opposition to announce 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:21.599 something concrete. Earlier this week he said they're all over 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:25.280 the shop when it comes to these tax cuts. Charmers 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:27.480 said if the Opposition is going to give bigger tax 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.880 cuts to people with high incomes, then they needed to 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:33.680 put a plan for how they intend to pay for 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:38.520 it and tell the Australian people tonight. Tuesday Night's figures 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.200 show that while the government has found a surplus now 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:46.000 and can make a debt in paying down debt, still 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.719 by twenty twenty five twenty six, according to the budget papers, 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:54.880 Australia will hit one trillion dollars of gross debt. And 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:58.400 that's simply because the cost of programs we already have 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:03.839 like health, aged care and the NDIS as well as defense, 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:08.200 are set to grow over time along with interest on 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:13.360 our existing debt, and the revenue isn't going at the 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:16.640 same rate. That's what we mean when we talk about 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:21.600 structural deficits. But Ashton some of the harshest criticisms of 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:24.640 the budget came not from the opposition but from the 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:26.760 minor parties and the cross bench. 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:29.040 Right Paul, So, we know the cross Bench has been 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.600 pretty vocal and pretty influential as well during this parliament. 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:35.360 But have they been able to put forward as serious 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:38.200 critique of this budget that kind of gives us an 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:40.400 indication of how they'll fight the next election. 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:44.480 Well, the loudest voice has certainly been Jackie Lamby. 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:47.679 We're obviously getting this three hundred not means tested. 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:48.800 What are we back in. 0:07:48.800 --> 0:07:52.240 COVID days where we're just chucking money left, right and center. 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:57.520 She slammed the three hundred dollars energy rebate for all households, 0:07:57.560 --> 0:08:00.160 saying that the government should have means tested it to 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:02.920 spend more money on people struggling. 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:06.960 Seriously, you're too lazy to do some means testing. We 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.320 don't need three hundred dollars, I can assure you, and 0:08:10.320 --> 0:08:11.800 that should have been passed forward. 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:13.280 I thint a. 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:17.000 Senator David Pocock actually put an alternative on the table, 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:22.560 arguing that if the government invested in electrifying households instead 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.560 of a one off three hundred dollars rebate going to 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:29.400 each home, they would have made energy bills cheaper for 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:31.120 Australians permanently. 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:33.560 The other bit I think that is missing from the 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.600 future made in Australia is household electrification. It is such a. 0:08:37.760 --> 0:08:40.839 Huge he said, the government needed to show we could 0:08:40.840 --> 0:08:44.120 be much smarter as a country. Amanda would have set 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.960 up households to save thousands every year. 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:50.240 When we look at three hundred bucks to every household 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:52.760 in Australia, I think we would be much smarter as 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:56.640 a country investing in household electrification, where households can be 0:08:56.679 --> 0:09:01.080 saving two to five thousand dollars every year going forward. 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:03.640 We know that it's anti inflationary because you're locking in 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:06.120 the price of electricity. 0:09:06.440 --> 0:09:09.640 And when it comes to the other major minor party, 0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:11.959 if I can put it that way, the Greens, they 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:15.320 made it clear in their reaction that they do intend 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:19.199 to fight this election on housing and rentals, with leader 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.320 Adam Bant putting the issue at the heart of his 0:09:22.520 --> 0:09:23.959 early response to the budget. 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.719 Labour's band aid budget is a betrayal of people who 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:31.120 are doing it tough. It's a betrayal of renters, of 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:33.959 mortgage holders, of women, of students. 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:38.439 He linked this to inflation, saying rent is a massive 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:43.160 driver of inflation, and the housing crisis is breaking people. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:49.240 Labor's tightening your belts while letting big corporations and billionaires 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:55.880 run wild. There's a lot more that would have been crisis. 0:09:56.480 --> 0:09:58.760 But we have to take into account that we're in 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:02.480 the last year of the electoral cycle and we have 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:06.320 to run a filter over much of this criticism. Charmers, 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:09.320 as the Treasurer in government, has to keep a broad 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:13.480 swathe of the electorate and demands on him as on 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:17.480 site as possible, and there is confidence in the government 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:21.360 that the Treasurer has positioned Labor well on that score. 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:30.760 Coming up after the break, my deficit smaller than your deficit. 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:42.080 What a very camera argument, Paul. 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:44.680 This cost of living crisis has gone on for longer 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:47.680 than pretty much anyone predicted, and inflation remains high. 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:51.920 Voters are crying out for help. Do you think the Treasurer. 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:56.040 Has promised people enough or will he face that criticism 0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:58.360 that he could really have been a bit more generous. 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:01.320 Well, there's no doubt millions of voters are frustrated with 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.840 their struggle to make ends meet. The remarkable thing is 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:09.600 Charmers in this budget has delivered a surplus and meaningful 0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:13.640 relief on energy costs, rent relief and health especially through 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:18.120 the freeze on prescriptions through the PBS. And while we 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:22.959 have forecast deficits, it frustrates the Treasurer that critics don't 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:27.240 compare these forecasts with those of the last coalition budget, 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:31.320 which is still within the budget cycle. He said on 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:35.400 radio on Wednesday morning that next year's deficit, predicted to 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:39.760 be twenty eight billion dollars is nineteen billion dollars less 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:44.520 than Josh Friedenberg was forecasting for the same year in 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:47.280 his last budget. And the other point to make is 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:50.360 the tax cuts and the rebates, the rent relief, the 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:54.440 student loan repayment relief. All these measures kick in in 0:11:54.600 --> 0:11:58.600 just two months time. The tax cuts will actually start 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.360 turning up in people's paper packets, and the electricity bill 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:06.440 relief along with the rent relief will be noticed, helped 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:10.200 by the fact the government has allocated forty million dollars 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:16.160 in multi platform advertising just to remind everyone and Ashland 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.880 there is another factor to take into account. Treasury has 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:24.440 been ultra conservative in predicting where commodity prices will be 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.000 iron or down from one hundred and ten dollars a 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:32.160 ton we're actually getting predicted to go down to sixty dollars. 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:34.640 Now I can tell you the budget will be looking 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:37.840 a lot healthier if that proves to be way off 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:39.760 the mark on the downside. 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.240 And so looking ahead towards the election that we all 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.080 know is coming in the next year or so, Paul, what. 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:47.800 Does this budget tell us? 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.600 Do you think about where labor believes they can win 0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:54.080 and the kind of voters that they're keen to win over. 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.600 So when you look at where the government has landed 0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:01.240 with slowing inflation, you know it's half what the charm 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:05.600 has inherited just two years ago. And we've got rising wages, 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:09.400 especially for the care sector, and every household in the 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:14.040 country and every taxpayer getting something. The challenge for the 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:17.480 opposition is to say, what of any of this they 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.840 would not do. Sure, they can talk about the risk 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.840 of inflation and interest rate rises, but it's the Reserve 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:28.360 Bank's view that will be critical here. But we do 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.760 have to remember the economy is weakening. The numbers actually 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:36.160 have it closer to a basket case. So the next 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:40.400 movement in interest rates will be down. It's just a 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:41.440 matter of when. 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.600 So many have said that this budget is pretty much 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:49.280 the starting gun for the next election campaign, but of 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:50.520 course we still don't. 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:55.040 Know when that will be. Did last night give you any. 0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.720 Clues about when exactly the government might call it on? 0:13:58.360 --> 0:13:58.520 Well? 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:02.400 In the budget lockupres conference, the Treasurer said he was 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:06.160 working to the economic cycle and not the political cycle. 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.240 He said he was doing what the circumstances domestically and 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:17.480 internationally were demanding. But I have to say this budget 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:21.040 looks and smells like a pre election exercise. But on 0:14:21.080 --> 0:14:24.160 that it's over to the Prime Minister and when he 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:28.040 judges is the most opportune time for him to pull 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.320 the trigger and win the race. 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:37.320 Paul, always good to speak to you. Thanks so much 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:37.840 for your time. 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:39.040 Thank you Ashland. 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.480 Bye tomorrow. 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.440 On the cost I'll be sitting down with Treasurer Jim 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.440 Chalmers to ask whether this budget is good for young 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:51.680 people when he thinks the cost of living crisis will 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:52.480 finally be over. 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.400 Also in the news today, Donald. 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:09.600 Trump's ex lawyer Michael Cohen has testified in a Manhattan 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.920 court that he did submit phony invoices to cover up 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.120 a hush money payment to adult film actors Stormy Daniels. 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.600 On Trump's behalf Cohen claimed his duties included threatening to 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:24.440 sue people and planting positive stories about the Republican candidate 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.840 in the press. And officials have hit pause on a 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.960 public art project called The Portal that connects people in 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:34.560 New York and Dublin via a continuous real time video link. 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.000 The Portal had become a magnet. 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.800 For controversial behavior, including a woman in New York flashing 0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:43.640 her breasts and some Dubliners holding up swastikas and displaying 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:49.440 images of New York's Twin Towers burning. That's all from 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.960 us for today. Thanks for your company. We'll see you 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:56.480 again tomorrow.