Speaker 1: There are certain traditions and rhythms around the Federal budget.
Speaker 1: There's a particular tree at Parliament House that always turns
Speaker 1: red Ozzie's coffee shop. Inside the building heaves with lobbyists
Speaker 1: and anyone with even the most remote connection to be
Speaker 1: in Canberra and shows not usually interested in politics.
Speaker 2: Well they give it a crack.
Speaker 3: Prime Minister. That debt isn't necessarily real, it's a number,
Speaker 3: and that I think most governments, not just the Australian government,
Speaker 3: governments around the world. They know that the world's going
Speaker 3: to be ending at some point in the future. So
Speaker 3: you guys are just going to continue spending because who cares.
Speaker 3: The debt won't exist when the world's done.
Speaker 4: Anyway, Well, we are not planning for the end of
Speaker 4: the world. What we are doing is that a better
Speaker 4: future rather than no future, which is what the end
Speaker 4: of the world would represent. But thank you for the contribution.
Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media in seven Am. I'm Ashlan McGhee. This
Speaker 1: is the cost inside the living crisis. It's now we're
Speaker 1: starting to get a real sense of how the budget's landing.
Speaker 2: So as the treasure is spent.
Speaker 1: Enough to help people out and we'll even remember it
Speaker 1: when it comes time to vote. Today contributor to the
Speaker 1: Saturday Paper, Paul bon Jorno on where the battle lines
Speaker 1: are being drawn. It's Thursday, May sixteenth, So Paul, this
Speaker 1: budget is only thirty six hours old. But we know
Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about this one a lot
Speaker 1: as we head towards the next election and as we
Speaker 1: try to get out of this cost of living crisis.
Speaker 1: So what are the early criticisms that we've heard of
Speaker 1: the budget?
Speaker 5: Well, Ash, it was a shadow treasurer Angus Taylor's job
Speaker 5: to be the first coalition to hit the airwaves just
Speaker 5: an hour or so after the budget was delivered, and
Speaker 5: from the coalition's point of view, there's a lot hanging
Speaker 5: on Taylor's performance.
Speaker 4: Angus Taylor, welcome to the program.
Speaker 6: Could to be with you?
Speaker 5: So I just heard a discussion well on the ABC
Speaker 5: seven thirty program with Sarah Ferguson after the budget was delivered.
Speaker 5: He attempted to skewer the government by saying it had
Speaker 5: spent too much and that spending would make inflation worse.
Speaker 6: If your plan to spend a lot of money, it's inflationary.
Speaker 6: We've got a sixteen percent increase in spending over two
Speaker 6: years and the economy is only growing at closer to
Speaker 6: seven percent, So that's spending growing at double the pace
Speaker 6: of the economy and.
Speaker 5: That But the problem for Taylor is earlier in the
Speaker 5: day before the budget was delivered, he'd been out there
Speaker 5: saying the government wasn't spending enough to support households. This
Speaker 5: left him in a pretty uncomfortable position when asked whether
Speaker 5: the Opposition would support the government's support for households.
Speaker 7: Do you support the government's billions of dollars in subsidies
Speaker 7: to those struggling Australians Do you support that?
Speaker 6: Well, what's clear in this budget is they're not going
Speaker 6: to the source of the problem. They're putting a band
Speaker 6: aid on a bullet wound.
Speaker 5: I me just staying with that particular question do you support.
Speaker 6: But this is the context is incredibly important and I
Speaker 6: will answer that question.
Speaker 5: But the context, well, ultimately he said the budget was
Speaker 5: a band aid on a bullet wound. But with the
Speaker 5: election looming, he didn't make the same mistake the Opposition
Speaker 5: made with the first Energy Bill relief package. You might
Speaker 5: remember they voted against it. Well, this time with an
Speaker 5: election looming within twelve months, at the latest they'll be
Speaker 5: voting for it.
Speaker 6: So we will support that, but not because we think
Speaker 6: that's ultimately the right answer. Labor has failed to deliver
Speaker 6: the energy price reductions they promised before they came to power.
Speaker 5: And so the coalition itself hasn't pulled together a coherent
Speaker 5: story to really help its shadow treasurer to get onto
Speaker 5: the front foot. It sort of leaves him with nothing
Speaker 5: much more than strident criticism. So on Wednesday morning, Peter
Speaker 5: Dutton had to go and we got his first reaction.
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton, thanks for joining am Pleasure Sabra. Thank you,
Speaker 2: every household rich and Paul will get three hundred dollars.
Speaker 5: He confirmed the Opposition would vote for the government's student
Speaker 5: debt relief and energy bill relief and rent relief.
Speaker 2: So are you going to support it or not, Well,
Speaker 2: we'll support.
Speaker 8: Measures which provide relief and obviously this comes in this
Speaker 8: budget before the election in any case, but we do
Speaker 8: know that families under this budget, a typical Australian household
Speaker 8: with a mortgage is more than thirty five thousand dollars
Speaker 8: worse off.
Speaker 2: Okay, that is a huge.
Speaker 5: Dutton picked up on the concerns of many in the commentariat,
Speaker 5: you know, economists and the like, that the budget risks
Speaker 5: fueling inflation, despite the Treasurer's confidence it won't. But Dutton
Speaker 5: may well be right that Australians may have to wait
Speaker 5: longer for an interest rate cut or inflation may well
Speaker 5: rebound sometime in the future.
Speaker 8: What they're sneakly trying to do is get an interest
Speaker 8: rate reduction before the election, but then rates will jump
Speaker 8: back up after. So I think there's a spoken mirrors
Speaker 8: game going on here, and giving three hundred dollars to
Speaker 8: people who are promised much more than that by why
Speaker 8: of reduction of their power prices is just not going
Speaker 8: to cut it for the average family.
Speaker 5: This makes tonight's budget reply speech all the more interesting.
Speaker 5: Surely the pressure is now unduteen to come up with
Speaker 5: some serious and costed alternative policies.
Speaker 1: Right So, do we have any sense of what the
Speaker 1: opposition's alternative would be here? Like, what hints do we
Speaker 1: have about what that'd be doing with the budget right now?
Speaker 5: Well, there have been hints in the last days that
Speaker 5: they could promise even greater tax cuts. Angus Taylor and
Speaker 5: Senator Jane Hume, the Shadow Finance minister have made hints
Speaker 5: in the media that this is the direction they intend
Speaker 5: to go in Treasure Jim Chalmers has responded to those
Speaker 5: hints by putting the pressure on the Opposition to announce
Speaker 5: something concrete. Earlier this week he said they're all over
Speaker 5: the shop when it comes to these tax cuts. Charmers
Speaker 5: said if the Opposition is going to give bigger tax
Speaker 5: cuts to people with high incomes, then they needed to
Speaker 5: put a plan for how they intend to pay for
Speaker 5: it and tell the Australian people tonight. Tuesday Night's figures
Speaker 5: show that while the government has found a surplus now
Speaker 5: and can make a debt in paying down debt, still
Speaker 5: by twenty twenty five twenty six, according to the budget papers,
Speaker 5: Australia will hit one trillion dollars of gross debt. And
Speaker 5: that's simply because the cost of programs we already have
Speaker 5: like health, aged care and the NDIS as well as defense,
Speaker 5: are set to grow over time along with interest on
Speaker 5: our existing debt, and the revenue isn't going at the
Speaker 5: same rate. That's what we mean when we talk about
Speaker 5: structural deficits. But Ashton some of the harshest criticisms of
Speaker 5: the budget came not from the opposition but from the
Speaker 5: minor parties and the cross bench.
Speaker 1: Right Paul, So, we know the cross Bench has been
Speaker 1: pretty vocal and pretty influential as well during this parliament.
Speaker 1: But have they been able to put forward as serious
Speaker 1: critique of this budget that kind of gives us an
Speaker 1: indication of how they'll fight the next election.
Speaker 5: Well, the loudest voice has certainly been Jackie Lamby.
Speaker 7: We're obviously getting this three hundred not means tested.
Speaker 2: What are we back in.
Speaker 7: COVID days where we're just chucking money left, right and center.
Speaker 5: She slammed the three hundred dollars energy rebate for all households,
Speaker 5: saying that the government should have means tested it to
Speaker 5: spend more money on people struggling.
Speaker 7: Seriously, you're too lazy to do some means testing. We
Speaker 7: don't need three hundred dollars, I can assure you, and
Speaker 7: that should have been passed forward.
Speaker 2: I thint a.
Speaker 5: Senator David Pocock actually put an alternative on the table,
Speaker 5: arguing that if the government invested in electrifying households instead
Speaker 5: of a one off three hundred dollars rebate going to
Speaker 5: each home, they would have made energy bills cheaper for
Speaker 5: Australians permanently.
Speaker 9: The other bit I think that is missing from the
Speaker 9: future made in Australia is household electrification. It is such a.
Speaker 5: Huge he said, the government needed to show we could
Speaker 5: be much smarter as a country. Amanda would have set
Speaker 5: up households to save thousands every year.
Speaker 9: When we look at three hundred bucks to every household
Speaker 9: in Australia, I think we would be much smarter as
Speaker 9: a country investing in household electrification, where households can be
Speaker 9: saving two to five thousand dollars every year going forward.
Speaker 9: We know that it's anti inflationary because you're locking in
Speaker 9: the price of electricity.
Speaker 5: And when it comes to the other major minor party,
Speaker 5: if I can put it that way, the Greens, they
Speaker 5: made it clear in their reaction that they do intend
Speaker 5: to fight this election on housing and rentals, with leader
Speaker 5: Adam Bant putting the issue at the heart of his
Speaker 5: early response to the budget.
Speaker 10: Labour's band aid budget is a betrayal of people who
Speaker 10: are doing it tough. It's a betrayal of renters, of
Speaker 10: mortgage holders, of women, of students.
Speaker 5: He linked this to inflation, saying rent is a massive
Speaker 5: driver of inflation, and the housing crisis is breaking people.
Speaker 10: Labor's tightening your belts while letting big corporations and billionaires
Speaker 10: run wild. There's a lot more that would have been crisis.
Speaker 5: But we have to take into account that we're in
Speaker 5: the last year of the electoral cycle and we have
Speaker 5: to run a filter over much of this criticism. Charmers,
Speaker 5: as the Treasurer in government, has to keep a broad
Speaker 5: swathe of the electorate and demands on him as on
Speaker 5: site as possible, and there is confidence in the government
Speaker 5: that the Treasurer has positioned Labor well on that score.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break, my deficit smaller than your deficit.
Speaker 2: What a very camera argument, Paul.
Speaker 1: This cost of living crisis has gone on for longer
Speaker 1: than pretty much anyone predicted, and inflation remains high.
Speaker 2: Voters are crying out for help. Do you think the Treasurer.
Speaker 1: Has promised people enough or will he face that criticism
Speaker 1: that he could really have been a bit more generous.
Speaker 5: Well, there's no doubt millions of voters are frustrated with
Speaker 5: their struggle to make ends meet. The remarkable thing is
Speaker 5: Charmers in this budget has delivered a surplus and meaningful
Speaker 5: relief on energy costs, rent relief and health especially through
Speaker 5: the freeze on prescriptions through the PBS. And while we
Speaker 5: have forecast deficits, it frustrates the Treasurer that critics don't
Speaker 5: compare these forecasts with those of the last coalition budget,
Speaker 5: which is still within the budget cycle. He said on
Speaker 5: radio on Wednesday morning that next year's deficit, predicted to
Speaker 5: be twenty eight billion dollars is nineteen billion dollars less
Speaker 5: than Josh Friedenberg was forecasting for the same year in
Speaker 5: his last budget. And the other point to make is
Speaker 5: the tax cuts and the rebates, the rent relief, the
Speaker 5: student loan repayment relief. All these measures kick in in
Speaker 5: just two months time. The tax cuts will actually start
Speaker 5: turning up in people's paper packets, and the electricity bill
Speaker 5: relief along with the rent relief will be noticed, helped
Speaker 5: by the fact the government has allocated forty million dollars
Speaker 5: in multi platform advertising just to remind everyone and Ashland
Speaker 5: there is another factor to take into account. Treasury has
Speaker 5: been ultra conservative in predicting where commodity prices will be
Speaker 5: iron or down from one hundred and ten dollars a
Speaker 5: ton we're actually getting predicted to go down to sixty dollars.
Speaker 5: Now I can tell you the budget will be looking
Speaker 5: a lot healthier if that proves to be way off
Speaker 5: the mark on the downside.
Speaker 1: And so looking ahead towards the election that we all
Speaker 1: know is coming in the next year or so, Paul, what.
Speaker 2: Does this budget tell us?
Speaker 1: Do you think about where labor believes they can win
Speaker 1: and the kind of voters that they're keen to win over.
Speaker 5: So when you look at where the government has landed
Speaker 5: with slowing inflation, you know it's half what the charm
Speaker 5: has inherited just two years ago. And we've got rising wages,
Speaker 5: especially for the care sector, and every household in the
Speaker 5: country and every taxpayer getting something. The challenge for the
Speaker 5: opposition is to say, what of any of this they
Speaker 5: would not do. Sure, they can talk about the risk
Speaker 5: of inflation and interest rate rises, but it's the Reserve
Speaker 5: Bank's view that will be critical here. But we do
Speaker 5: have to remember the economy is weakening. The numbers actually
Speaker 5: have it closer to a basket case. So the next
Speaker 5: movement in interest rates will be down. It's just a
Speaker 5: matter of when.
Speaker 1: So many have said that this budget is pretty much
Speaker 1: the starting gun for the next election campaign, but of
Speaker 1: course we still don't.
Speaker 2: Know when that will be. Did last night give you any.
Speaker 1: Clues about when exactly the government might call it on?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 5: In the budget lockupres conference, the Treasurer said he was
Speaker 5: working to the economic cycle and not the political cycle.
Speaker 5: He said he was doing what the circumstances domestically and
Speaker 5: internationally were demanding. But I have to say this budget
Speaker 5: looks and smells like a pre election exercise. But on
Speaker 5: that it's over to the Prime Minister and when he
Speaker 5: judges is the most opportune time for him to pull
Speaker 5: the trigger and win the race.
Speaker 2: Paul, always good to speak to you. Thanks so much
Speaker 2: for your time.
Speaker 5: Thank you Ashland.
Speaker 2: Bye tomorrow.
Speaker 1: On the cost I'll be sitting down with Treasurer Jim
Speaker 1: Chalmers to ask whether this budget is good for young
Speaker 1: people when he thinks the cost of living crisis will
Speaker 1: finally be over.
Speaker 2: Also in the news today, Donald.
Speaker 1: Trump's ex lawyer Michael Cohen has testified in a Manhattan
Speaker 1: court that he did submit phony invoices to cover up
Speaker 1: a hush money payment to adult film actors Stormy Daniels.
Speaker 1: On Trump's behalf Cohen claimed his duties included threatening to
Speaker 1: sue people and planting positive stories about the Republican candidate
Speaker 1: in the press. And officials have hit pause on a
Speaker 1: public art project called The Portal that connects people in
Speaker 1: New York and Dublin via a continuous real time video link.
Speaker 2: The Portal had become a magnet.
Speaker 1: For controversial behavior, including a woman in New York flashing
Speaker 1: her breasts and some Dubliners holding up swastikas and displaying
Speaker 1: images of New York's Twin Towers burning. That's all from
Speaker 1: us for today. Thanks for your company. We'll see you
Speaker 1: again tomorrow.