WEBVTT - What Russia is promising Trump 

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<v Speaker 1>But President, mister President, with respect, I think it's disrespectful

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<v Speaker 1>for you to come into the Oval Office to try

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<v Speaker 1>to litigate this in front of the American media right now.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think we should start with the meeting in

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<v Speaker 2>the Oval Office between Zelenski, Trump and Vance. As you

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<v Speaker 2>were watching it, I mean, tell me what you were seeing.

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<v Speaker 3>I think there's a couple of different thoughts that jumped

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<v Speaker 3>in my head.

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<v Speaker 1>One was the lack of respect for a foreign leader

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<v Speaker 1>coming to the Oval Office, especially one that has sacrificed

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<v Speaker 1>so much to save his country from an invasion.

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<v Speaker 2>David Sconi is a political scientist and his specialty is

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<v Speaker 2>money in politics. So while much of the world was

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<v Speaker 2>stunned by Donald Trump and JD. Vance's treatment of Lord

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<v Speaker 2>mu Zelenski at their meeting in the Oval Office, David kind.

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<v Speaker 3>Of saw it coming. The variety's been on the wall

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<v Speaker 3>for weeks now.

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<v Speaker 1>It may well be that the Trump administration decided they

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<v Speaker 1>weren't in a back Ukraine immediately upon taking office three

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<v Speaker 1>even months ago, and this meeting was just kind of

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<v Speaker 1>a cherry on the cake to set that process further

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<v Speaker 1>in motion. But it's this public declaration that relations between

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<v Speaker 1>the US and the Ukraine are the worst they've been

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<v Speaker 1>in years.

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<v Speaker 3>Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying

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<v Speaker 3>to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going

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<v Speaker 3>to feel.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not telling you because you're in no position to

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<v Speaker 1>dictate that.

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<v Speaker 4>You're in no position to dictate what we're going to feel.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to feel very good. We're going to feel

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<v Speaker 3>very good and very strong.

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<v Speaker 2>Before the meeting went off the rails. Before Zelenski was

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<v Speaker 2>asked to leave, the leaders had been negotiating a deal

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<v Speaker 2>that would give the US access to a significant share

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<v Speaker 2>of Ukraine's rare earth minerals. But Russia has also been

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<v Speaker 2>working on their own set of deals with Trump, and

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<v Speaker 2>what they're angling for could be catastrophic for Ukraine. From

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<v Speaker 2>Schwartz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am today.

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<v Speaker 2>Associate Professor of Political science and International Affairs at George

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<v Speaker 2>Washington University David Seconi on the new Russia US relationship

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<v Speaker 2>and Trump's corporate diplomacy. It's Tuesday, March four. David, the

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<v Speaker 2>original purpose of this catastrophic meeting at the Oval Office

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<v Speaker 2>was to sign a deal where the US would get

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<v Speaker 2>access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals that did not happen,

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<v Speaker 2>And now there is this big question mark over what

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<v Speaker 2>support the US will supply to Ukraine at all going forward.

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<v Speaker 2>So what does that mean for Ukraine?

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<v Speaker 1>A really difficult time going forward. Ukraine has depended on

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<v Speaker 1>the US military and financial assistance since February twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's not already substitute for everything that we've provided

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<v Speaker 1>so billions of dollars to fund its government, key technical

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<v Speaker 1>assistance to repair and rebuild parts of its economy and

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure that Russia keeps destroying. And also the intelligence support

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<v Speaker 1>that the US appears to have been supplying and to

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<v Speaker 1>a very large extent since February twenty twenty two, helping

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<v Speaker 1>identify Russian targets to the best of our knowledge, passing

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<v Speaker 1>on critical knowledge about how the battlefield is unfolding that

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine's been able to deploy on the ground. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>know how much of that is in jeopardy, but conceivably,

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<v Speaker 1>after Friday's meeting, the US could cut off every single

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<v Speaker 1>type of assistance across all these different.

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<v Speaker 3>Dimensions going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>If I was your gran I would be worried and

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<v Speaker 1>concerned about how it can continue to push back against

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian military machine with basically half of the supporter,

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<v Speaker 1>even less than that enjoyed in the last three years.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk a little more about alternate back is.

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<v Speaker 2>Then Zelenski went straight to the UK to meet the

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister their Kirstama after the meeting in the Oval Office,

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<v Speaker 2>and this meeting it went very differently, didn't it. So

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<v Speaker 2>can you tell me a bit about what came out

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<v Speaker 2>of it and what you think the state of that

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<v Speaker 2>alliance is at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's been more or less a united European

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<v Speaker 1>front since Friday's meeting, initially on social media, now in person,

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<v Speaker 1>signaling to Ukraine that Europe finally disagrees with the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administration and is going to try to do everything in

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<v Speaker 1>its power to back Ukraine with what it needs.

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<v Speaker 3>Rather than telling Ukraine what it should.

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<v Speaker 4>Do, our starting point must be to put Ukraine in

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<v Speaker 4>the strongest possible position now so that they can negotiate

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<v Speaker 4>from a position of strength, and we are doubling down

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<v Speaker 4>in our support. Yesterday evening, the UK signed a two

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<v Speaker 4>point two billion pound loan to provide more military aid

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<v Speaker 4>to Ukraine, backed not by the British taxpayer, but by

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<v Speaker 4>the profits from frozen Russian assets.

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<v Speaker 1>Now, Europe doesn't have the scale of military production to

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<v Speaker 1>make up for the US abandoning Ukraine, and Europe has

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<v Speaker 1>its own economic difficulties, and there's a lot of debate

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<v Speaker 1>or whether it can afford to invest so much of

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<v Speaker 1>its limited resources or borrow more than it already has,

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<v Speaker 1>in order to both equip itself in the event that

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<v Speaker 1>NATO ceases to be this backstop for Europe and supply

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine with what the United States have been providing, and

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<v Speaker 1>potentially even more if it wants to change the course

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<v Speaker 1>of the conflict.

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<v Speaker 2>And Trump has been complaining for some time that he

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't want the US to foot the bill for Ukraine's security.

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<v Speaker 2>So in staging this disastrous meeting with Ukraine and then

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<v Speaker 2>having Europe signal that it might come to the rescue,

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<v Speaker 2>did Trump ultimately get what he wanted here?

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<v Speaker 1>I think Trump wants America to lead the world in

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<v Speaker 1>some respect, even if he doesn't want US to pay

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<v Speaker 1>for it anymore. And the idea of all the European

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<v Speaker 1>leaders coming together to fund their own version of foreign policy,

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<v Speaker 1>the potentially challenge of the United States may weaken Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>ability to project power that he's promised the US voters,

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<v Speaker 1>So I wouldn't say he's sitting extremely pretty right now.

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<v Speaker 3>After Friday, there's been I think a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>More criticism in the media than I expected, even from

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<v Speaker 1>some conservative sources, about how he advanced handled the meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is extremely unpopular in the United States, and Zelenski

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<v Speaker 1>has over a majority of support according to the best

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<v Speaker 1>survey opinion polls that we have in this country. So

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<v Speaker 1>he's tacked out a hardline decision that is in conflict

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<v Speaker 1>with what most of the American public wants. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's too soon to tell.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up after the break, what Russia is promising Trump.

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<v Speaker 5>Hi, I'm Daniel James. Seven I AM tell stories that

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<v Speaker 2>David, there was a meeting between Russian and US officials

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<v Speaker 2>in Saudi Arabia just over a week ago. Now, tell

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<v Speaker 2>me about that meeting and how it compares to what

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<v Speaker 2>we saw at the Oval Office.

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<v Speaker 1>This was a pretty hastily convened meeting by the societies

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<v Speaker 1>to bring together a handful of high ranking officials on

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian and the US side to start a conversation

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<v Speaker 1>about what a normalization of relations between US and Russia

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<v Speaker 1>would look like, trying to put US Russia relations on

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<v Speaker 1>a new footing. And both sides told each other what

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<v Speaker 1>they wanted to hear, and therefore it seemed like there

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<v Speaker 1>was optimism coming out of the meeting that they'd be

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<v Speaker 1>able to hash something out, even though there's so much

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<v Speaker 1>to be done in so many different issues that are unresolved.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Can you tell me about the key officials who

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<v Speaker 2>were at those talks.

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<v Speaker 1>So on the Russian side, they have the long time

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<v Speaker 1>Foreign Minister Sergey Lvorov, who's been at this for decades

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<v Speaker 1>now and extremely experienced, alongside the former Ambassador to the

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<v Speaker 1>United States Yshkov, who's getting on in his years but

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<v Speaker 1>has a lot of experience deal with the Americans. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think the surprise to everybody was Caerier Dmitriev, who's

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<v Speaker 1>severally younger than the other two from the Russian delegation.

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<v Speaker 1>He has an MBA from Harvard Business School. He worked

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<v Speaker 1>at Goldman Sachs. He's a deal maker, he's a business person,

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<v Speaker 1>and he could speak the language both corporate and just linguistically,

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<v Speaker 1>just English, and he's been in these situations before. I

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<v Speaker 1>think they're putting a lot of faith that he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to work some magic with Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>And his emissaries.

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<v Speaker 2>And when you say the corporate or the business perspective,

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<v Speaker 2>what is that perspective on these talks.

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<v Speaker 1>It's something that I think a lot of tes have internalized,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, since the election of November, is what do

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<v Speaker 1>we do with Trump? Two point zero? How do we

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<v Speaker 1>find a common language with Trump? And many countries, including Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>have centered on this. Well, flattery, of course works, but

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<v Speaker 1>so does speaking the language of business. So does offering

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<v Speaker 1>Trump some type of business deal where America purportedly benefits financially. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>Trump wants seems to want to demonstrate to American voters

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<v Speaker 1>that he's making America wealthier, more prosperous. So Russia had

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<v Speaker 1>trotted out several proposals that really pull.

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<v Speaker 3>On this string with Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, these are areas of joint Russian and American investment

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<v Speaker 1>in rare earth minerals.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The Ukrainians offered something months ago the background of this

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<v Speaker 1>deal last week, and the Russians offered a counter proposals saying,

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<v Speaker 1>we have rare earth minerals.

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<v Speaker 3>Too, you should come and help develop them and we'll

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<v Speaker 3>cut you in on the deal.

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<v Speaker 1>And something a little bit more nebulous and vague, but

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<v Speaker 1>potentially just as large as the other two, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the development of the Arctic. We all heard Trump desiring

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<v Speaker 1>to annex Greenland. The Arctic is massive. It supposedly has vast.

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<v Speaker 3>Stores of rare earth minerals and even fossil.

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<v Speaker 1>Fuels, and a lot of other implications for economic development.

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<v Speaker 1>And Russia has been competing ferociously for access to the

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<v Speaker 1>Arctic over the last couple decades with the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>They saw an opportunity to maybe make nice by having

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<v Speaker 1>some talks about how to split the Arctic and make

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<v Speaker 1>it so that Trump could come home with some win,

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<v Speaker 1>some victory. But it just goes against decades of diplomatic strategy, So.

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<v Speaker 2>You can't necessarily see what the long term goal of

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<v Speaker 2>the Trump administration is when it comes to this conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>I think our best guess is that he's okay with

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<v Speaker 1>a multipolar world where Russia has taken seriously treated equitably

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<v Speaker 1>in a way that it's wanted to for decades, and

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<v Speaker 1>the US is fine with that, and Russia is seen

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<v Speaker 1>as a partner rather than an adversary. And Trump can

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<v Speaker 1>go back and say that he brought peace to different

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<v Speaker 1>parts of the world through negotiation, even if there were

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<v Speaker 1>significance concessions made. But I think any business with Russia

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<v Speaker 1>right now just does not have any sort of guarantee,

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<v Speaker 1>especially what we've seen the last three years in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of nationalization and property rights violations and just so very

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<v Speaker 1>aggressive putin government towards businesses of all types.

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<v Speaker 2>And you talked about the way that Russia has reopened

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<v Speaker 2>business negotiations with the US on these different fronts, But

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<v Speaker 2>can you just tell me what was said about what

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<v Speaker 2>Russia wants when it comes to Ukraine, what terms they

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<v Speaker 2>would like to see.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they very clearly don't want Ukraine to be ever

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<v Speaker 1>invited in too NATO, and any type of agreement that

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<v Speaker 1>spells that out in writing, whether it's twenty years or

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<v Speaker 1>fifty years is going to be extremely welcome in Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>They also want recognition for the territories that they annexed

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty fourteen, that is Crimea, as well as those

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<v Speaker 1>that they've claimed since twenty twenty two, the four regions

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<v Speaker 1>that they illegitimately annexed in September twenty twenty two. So

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<v Speaker 1>those are think are its main goals. But Putin doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily want peace, right, he doesn't want the fighting to

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<v Speaker 1>stop because I think he feels he has the upper

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<v Speaker 1>hand that Russia can withstand another year or more of

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<v Speaker 1>this conflict, can mobilize more troops if it needs to,

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<v Speaker 1>and I expect their wishless to expand if their campaign

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<v Speaker 1>picks up any speed.

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<v Speaker 2>And it does sound like from what you're saying, that

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<v Speaker 2>Russia in approaching negotiations in the way that it has,

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<v Speaker 2>they understand that for Trump, any peace deal is a

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<v Speaker 2>business deal as well, that this is a transaction. Does

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<v Speaker 2>it seem to you that that approach is working.

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<v Speaker 3>I think so.

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<v Speaker 1>So we need to think of the Trump approach as

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like corporate diplomacy. Right, this is a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of business people that are trotting around the world asking

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<v Speaker 1>what can you do for us and.

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<v Speaker 3>What can we give you in return?

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<v Speaker 1>And let's put some numbers to those conversations, rather than

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about what does a new security architecture look like?

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<v Speaker 1>Or what do troop deployments? How should they be organized?

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<v Speaker 1>Or nuclear weapons. I think all of those are going

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<v Speaker 1>to take second priority to money. The Russians understand this,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why they've floated these various investment proposals because

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<v Speaker 1>they think, and I think they're probably correct, that Trump

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<v Speaker 1>cares more about the finances than he does about other

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<v Speaker 1>ideological goals at this stage.

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<v Speaker 2>David, thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>You're very welcome.

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<v Speaker 2>Also in the news today, lawyers for former military lawyer

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<v Speaker 2>David McBride have argued their client's prison sentence failed to

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<v Speaker 2>take into account that he was acting quote bravely and

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<v Speaker 2>selflessly in an attempt to write what he thought was

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<v Speaker 2>a serious wrong. McBride is appealing against both his conviction

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<v Speaker 2>and the severity of his sentence in the Act Court

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<v Speaker 2>of Appeal after he was sentenced to five years and

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<v Speaker 2>eight months for releasing documents to the ABC which detailed

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<v Speaker 2>war crimes in Afghanistan and Mikey Madison has won Best

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<v Speaker 2>Actress at the ninety seventh Academy Awards for her role

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<v Speaker 2>as a sex worker who marries the son of a

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<v Speaker 2>Russian oligarch in the film Anora. Meanwhile, Adrian Brody won

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<v Speaker 2>Best Actor for his role in The Brutalist, and Shawn

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<v Speaker 2>Baker's Anora took home both Best Picture and Best Director.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.

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<v Speaker 4>It's all on