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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Post earning season, Commonwealth Bank comes back to the pack,

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Speaker 1: while Cole threatens to overtake Woollies as the biggest supermarket chain.

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Speaker 1: The federal government pledges twelve billion dollars towards defense spending

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Speaker 1: in Western Australia, and almost half of all investors are

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Speaker 1: turning to AI for advice. Plus, the spring selling season

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Speaker 1: continues to impress and the original weight loss drugs lose

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Speaker 1: their luster. It is Monday, the fifteenth of September twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sean. I want to get straight into the show because

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Speaker 1: we've got a lot to cover, but we've got to

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Speaker 1: address the elephant in the room. Well, you're not in

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Speaker 1: the room, that's the thing, and you're not an elephant. Yes,

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Speaker 1: you are recording the show right now from of all places, Marrakesh.

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Speaker 2: Yes. So it's part of our work from home or

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Speaker 2: work remotely experiment that's going on. And we're in Marrakesh

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Speaker 2: this weekend, and we were anyway, and we're heading about

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Speaker 2: to head back to the south of France in an

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Speaker 2: hour or two. So that's basically where I'm recording from.

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Speaker 1: And I'm really pointing that out to say that if

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Speaker 1: you can hear birds in the background, it is because

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Speaker 1: there is all kinds of exotic bird life around you

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Speaker 1: at the moment. While I'm recording in the studio here

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Speaker 1: in Australia, you are on the other side of the

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Speaker 1: world surrounded by birds.

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Speaker 2: We have recorded in odd spots over the years that

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Speaker 2: we never really admit it. I mean, you have done

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Speaker 2: a lot of recordings in your car. Let's beyond me.

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Speaker 1: But to be fair, that's like in Newcastle. It's not

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Speaker 1: really in Marrakesh or in the south of France, is it.

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Speaker 2: So that's very true.

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Speaker 1: It is another step, but we continue to make sure

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Speaker 1: the podcast is out every single morning. Let's get into it.

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Speaker 1: Shaw on the main story this morning. Ten weeks into

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Speaker 1: the new financial year, with a volatile, very very volatile

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Speaker 1: earning season behind us, the makeup of Australia's top twenty

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Speaker 1: companies has changed sharply. The big switch that we talked

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Speaker 1: about a lot from banks to resources companies and healthcare

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Speaker 1: stocks has evolved now into a selldown of Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 1: and CSL and buying up of resource companies, while Coles,

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Speaker 1: after really what's been years of underperformance, is closing in

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Speaker 1: on Woolworths in terms of market cap.

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Speaker 2: It's been a really remarkable twenty twenty six fiscal year

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Speaker 2: so far. We do tend to focus a lot on

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Speaker 2: the top ten or twenty companies on the Bourse, given

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Speaker 2: there about two thousand listed companies. We do that for

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Speaker 2: a reason. Though the ASEX itself has a market cap

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Speaker 2: of about three point two trillion dollars, the top twenty

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Speaker 2: companies comprised more than fifty percent of that market cap.

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Speaker 2: That's why we focus on them so much. Commonwealth Bank,

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Speaker 2: the country's largest stock, was at one point about eighty

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Speaker 2: percent bigger than number two BHP. That figures more than

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Speaker 2: halved this fiscal year. Commonwealth Bank's share price is down

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Speaker 2: twelve percent bhps up thirteen percent. That'll do it. The

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Speaker 2: bank is still very expensive on a price to earnings measure,

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Speaker 2: but the other big four are catching up somewhat. National

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Speaker 2: Australia's bank share price is up seven and a half

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Speaker 2: percent this fiscal year, while Westpac and Ain's have risen

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Speaker 2: around ten percent. So the big switch wasn't so much

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Speaker 2: from banks to resources. It was from Commonwealth Bank to

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Speaker 2: Resources and others. The biggest loser over the last ten weeks.

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Speaker 2: CSL sold off heavily after it reported earnings. The medical Group,

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Speaker 2: not that long ago was the country's largest company, COVID hurt.

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Speaker 2: It has never really recovered. It's now the sixth largest

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Speaker 2: company on the burse. The biggest winners so far this

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Speaker 2: year among the top twenty is fort es qu Metals Group.

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Speaker 2: Though we did have a horror run last year and

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Speaker 2: earlier this year, it's rebounded. It's up twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: this year. And West Farmers is the other big mover

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Speaker 2: over the last ten weeks. It is now the country's

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Speaker 2: fifth largest company, with the market cap of one hundred

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Speaker 2: and five billion dollars. Its share price is up ten

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Speaker 2: percent over the past ten weeks.

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Speaker 1: A lot of companies there. I want to ask you

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Speaker 1: about a couple of others, Cole's and Bullies. Actually it's

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Speaker 1: not Cole's end Woolies. It is Cole's versus Woollies, right,

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Speaker 1: And some of the other top twenty stocks like Telstra

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Speaker 1: Sigma Healthcare. They are among some of the best performers

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Speaker 1: in the last financial year. Yes, so let's go Woolies

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Speaker 1: and Cole's first earnings season did no favors to Woolies.

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Speaker 1: It's sliding down the rankings of top Bossie companies, now

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Speaker 1: coming in at eighteen. Its share prices off ten percent

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Speaker 1: this fiscal year. Coals and Contrast remains a winner in

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Speaker 1: the eyes of investors. It's the nineteenth largest company, having

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Speaker 1: appreciated fourteen percent. It's now worth thirty two.

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Speaker 2: Billion dollars, just shy of Woolies thirty four billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: If these trajectories continue, will become bigger than Woolies, and

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Speaker 2: that is quite the turnaround. Telstra had a great twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five fiscal year, up only slightly the last ten weeks.

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Speaker 2: Sigma Healthcare's flat. The moral to the tale, Michael, why

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Speaker 2: are we talking about that? It's a stock pickers market

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Speaker 2: some cycles. You can buy any Aussie bank and get

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Speaker 2: the same return, not at the moment, say with the

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Speaker 2: resource companies, same with the retailers.

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Speaker 1: It's a reason why it's a great idea to get

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Speaker 1: professional advice before making investment decisions. Sean, Now, oh, we've

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Speaker 1: got a story about that one coming up, and the

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Speaker 1: role of AI in all of that it's a great

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Speaker 1: story that one. Now it is a very big week

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Speaker 1: for the US Federal Reserve, with interest rates in the

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Speaker 1: world's biggest economy likely to be cut maybe, which would

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Speaker 1: certainly please Donald Trump, although unless they are cut a

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Speaker 1: long long way, I don't know whether it would please him.

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Speaker 2: Anything would. Yeah, Investors believe there is a cut coming

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Speaker 2: when the FED Board meets this week. The big unknown

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Speaker 2: which has held the central Bank back has been the

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Speaker 2: impact of tariffs on inflation figures late last week so

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Speaker 2: that inflation raised about two point nine percent over the year.

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Speaker 2: Core inflation was three point one percent. The monthly reading

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Speaker 2: was zero point four percent. All of that is actually

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Speaker 2: a bit above expectations. The flip side in the US

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Speaker 2: is really quite a slow labor market. The tariff policy.

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Speaker 2: You are seeing it in things like automobile prices, household furnishings, clothing.

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Speaker 2: Economists reckon there's enough data out there to trigger a

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Speaker 2: cut in the Fed's official rate when they meet. It's

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Speaker 2: actually Thursday morning, the Thursday morning Australian time. Whatever it does,

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Speaker 2: it will definitely have a big impact on the local

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Speaker 2: ax and the Aussie dollary.

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Speaker 1: I asked Stephen Coculus about that is a resident economist,

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Speaker 1: and I ask him about that in the week ahead.

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Speaker 1: He believes that, yes, the FED will cut rates, that

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Speaker 1: it will be a twenty five basis point cut, but

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Speaker 1: that there are a lot more still to come, and

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Speaker 1: that's coming up after the show. So I stick around

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Speaker 1: for that one local market. Sean, what are we expecting

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Speaker 1: this week?

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Speaker 2: It's expected to open high today. Futures are showing zero

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Speaker 2: point two percent rise at ten am when things get going.

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Speaker 2: That follows a fairly decent rise on Friday. But all

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Speaker 2: eyes in the Fed this week.

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Speaker 1: Are keeping the birds at bay there, Sean in Marrakesh.

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Speaker 2: Just just the funny thing is they're not exit you said,

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Speaker 2: exotic birds, more finches, sparrows, not that exotic come afraid finches.

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Speaker 1: But you know what, Sean, podcasting, it's all about the

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Speaker 1: theater of the mind, right, Like I said, just said that,

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Speaker 1: you're surrounded by peacocks and various other things. So just

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Speaker 1: unless you correct me, then we can imagine it. Right.

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Speaker 1: But what I will do is I'm going to put

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Speaker 1: a picture of you in Marrakesh in today's Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed newsletter. If you haven't subscribed to it headlong to

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed dot com doday. You'll put a link

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Speaker 1: in today's show notes as well because it's a great

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Speaker 1: photo anyway. Quick break back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news Seawan. The federal government

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Speaker 1: has pledged twelve billion dollars towards building orcus infrastructure in

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Speaker 1: Western Australia, a move which should help Australia standing with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Yes maybe. Prime Mister Anthony Albanezi announced the funding yesterday

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Speaker 2: to support submarine maintenance and naval shipbuilding at Perth's Henderson Precinct.

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Speaker 2: With the investment to support a claim ten thousand jobs.

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Speaker 2: The governments in a race against time to get Henderson

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Speaker 2: and the nearby Hmaas Stirling Naval Base ready for the

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Speaker 2: start of rotational deployments of US and British nuclear subs

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Speaker 2: from twenty twenty seven and the promised arrival of Australia's

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Speaker 2: first Virginia class subs in about twenty thirty two. According

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Speaker 2: to the OS, the new investment will support the development

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Speaker 2: of new dry docks and other facilities for submarine and

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Speaker 2: service ship maintenance. Will also underpin the delivery of new

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Speaker 2: army landing craft in Australia's future general purpose frigates. The

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Speaker 2: PMS hoping to secure a sit down with mister Trump

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Speaker 2: during his upcoming US trip to address the UN General

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Speaker 2: Assembly or at an upcoming multilateral summit. This announcement certainly

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Speaker 2: won't hurt those prospects.

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Speaker 1: Did you see last week that Donald Trump was asked

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Speaker 1: what he thinks of Anthony Alberzi ForWord response, he's a

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Speaker 1: good man, so at least he knows who he is.

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Speaker 2: Right he does. Definitely that's something because remember the last

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Speaker 2: election when Dutton and Albanesi and they asked them about

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Speaker 2: Peter Dutton and he said, I have no idea who

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Speaker 2: that guy is, but yeah, I quite like that Alberanzi

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Speaker 2: fella or something along those lines.

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Speaker 1: Doesn't that feel a long time ago now? And the

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Speaker 1: fact that that became such a big political issue. Who

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Speaker 1: was going to have the best relationship with the US president?

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Speaker 1: Who is going to be able to have more contact

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Speaker 1: and in the end, I don't think there's been a

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Speaker 1: huge amount of contact between the Prime Minister and the president.

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Speaker 1: Certainly no sit down meetings, and that all just feels

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Speaker 1: like a lifetime ago. He does now, Sean talking real

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Speaker 1: estate let's go property. The spring selling season continues to

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Speaker 1: gather momentum. Two four hundred and fifty five homes taken

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Speaker 1: to auction last week, the highest volume since the first

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Speaker 1: week of June.

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Speaker 2: And the priminary clearance rate first time I I've had

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Speaker 2: to use that word preliminary since I've been back on

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Speaker 2: the show and I got through it. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: say the third time because I'm so excited that I

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Speaker 2: got it right the first two times. The preliminary clearance

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Speaker 2: rate has eased off a little through the first two

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Speaker 2: weeks of spring, but it's at seventy four point eight percent.

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Speaker 2: Eased off a little, it's still pretty good. It's actually

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Speaker 2: the first time though it's been below seventy five percent

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Speaker 2: in four weeks, with twelve hundred and seventy three auctions

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Speaker 2: held in Melbourne. That I mean, that's three weeks in

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Speaker 2: a row where more than a thousand homes have gone

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Speaker 2: under the hammer. Clearance straight at seventy five point two percent,

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Speaker 2: pretty good. More than eight hundred homes in Sydney came

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Speaker 2: in just under seventy five percent seventy four point eight percent.

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Speaker 2: It is down on a year ago, the lowest preliminary

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Speaker 2: clearance straight for Sydney in five weeks. I did it again,

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Speaker 2: didn't I? But basically you know, Sydney's firing was at

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Speaker 2: eighty percent. A few weeks back, Brisbane, Adelaide and the

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Speaker 2: ACT all came in around seventy four percent. The volume

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Speaker 2: of auctions is set to rise further this week. That

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Speaker 2: will test the market again.

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Speaker 1: Now I mentioned this one earlier, Sean almost half of

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Speaker 1: Australian investors and now turning to artificial intelligence for financial advice.

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Speaker 1: This is according to the preliminary findings of the Australian

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Speaker 1: Retailer Investor Confidence Survey from Chartered Accountants Australian New Zealand YES, SO, CIA.

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Speaker 2: And ZEN surveyed one thousand Australian retail investors with more

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Speaker 2: than ten thousand invested in stock, in the stock market

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Speaker 2: and other investments. They asked them about AI. Forty eight

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Speaker 2: percent said they'd used AI tools to make investment decisions.

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Speaker 2: More than eighty one percent are at least somewhat satisfied

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Speaker 2: with the information AI provided. Trust is still a major issue,

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Speaker 2: so forty three percent that said they don't use AI

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Speaker 2: as they lacked confidence in the information produced. I think

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Speaker 2: it is quite remarkable that so many people are using it.

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Speaker 2: Not surprisingly, younger investors more likely to use AI. You

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Speaker 2: did an experiment on the back of this. I put

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Speaker 2: in my age, I put in my earnings. Well not,

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Speaker 2: I said, I'm still earning money. I said, I gave

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Speaker 2: them my age, and I gave them my risk profile,

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Speaker 2: and it threw out my portfolio. And it was kind

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Speaker 2: of interesting. I mean it was quite a sensible portfolios.

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Speaker 2: You had blue chips, growth stocks, ETF's lists, investment companies, bonds,

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Speaker 2: didn't have anything about international stocks, didn't talk about private credit,

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Speaker 2: didn't talk about infrastructure. So certainly incomplete. Certainly incomplete and

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Speaker 2: go and see a financial advisor. But it kind of

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Speaker 2: came up with a sensible option, though not one tailored

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Speaker 2: for me, which is why you need financial advice. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: but remarkable how many people are making these investment decisions

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Speaker 2: on the back of AI.

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Speaker 1: I love that you were there doing an experiment, just

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Speaker 1: snacking on Moroccan dates, WILIA, They're tapping away on chatting GPT.

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Speaker 1: It's just a great ima. Exactly right, Michael looking it

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Speaker 1: on the Big Business story from last Friday, this was

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Speaker 1: a whopper. The Albanese government has approved Woodside to bid

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Speaker 1: to extend the life of its massive Northwest Shelf facility,

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Speaker 1: which ends years of complex approvals processes and ensures the

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Speaker 1: role of gas in Australia's energy mix now for decades

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Speaker 1: to come exactly.

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Speaker 2: The government will allow Woodside to continue operation of the

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Speaker 2: Pilbrig gas export facility until twenty seventy, subject to a

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Speaker 2: bunch of new conditions, particularly some aimed at protecting nearby

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Speaker 2: indigenous rocket. The decision is proofd the Albanesi government is

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Speaker 2: attempting to prioritize Australian jobs alongside environmental and indigenous heritage protections.

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Speaker 2: According to the Minister Murray Watt, as part of these

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Speaker 2: new conditions, Woodside will need to drastically cut the emissions

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Speaker 2: from the facility in coming years, including a sixty percent

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Speaker 2: reduction of certain gases by twenty thirty nine percent by

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Speaker 2: twenty sixty. Woodside said the decision gave certainty to the

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Speaker 2: ongoing operations of the Northwest Shelf.

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Speaker 1: And a very quick mention of the other big story

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Speaker 1: last Friday, Jane Herdliker's pay for running Virgin Australia for

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Speaker 1: five years.

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Speaker 2: Fifty million dollars. Not bad. Better than Actually, if you

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Speaker 2: averaged Alan Joyce over fifteen years on average seven point

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Speaker 2: eight million over five years, you got ten million a year.

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Speaker 1: Not bad, okay. Turning to International News Now, Sean and

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump's top diplomat, Marco Rubio, headed to

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Speaker 1: Israel over the weekend mid tensions with fellow US allies

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East over Israel's strike on Hermas leaders

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Speaker 1: in Qatar and expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank.

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Speaker 2: Speaking to reporters before departure, Rubio reiterrated that the US

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Speaker 2: and President Donald Trump were not happy about the strikes.

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Speaker 2: According to Reuters, Rubio said the US relationship with Israel

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Speaker 2: would not be affected, but that he would discuss with

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Speaker 2: the Israelis how the strike would affect Trump's desire to

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Speaker 2: secure the return of all hostages held by Hamas, get

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Speaker 2: rid of the militants, and end the Gaza War. There

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Speaker 2: are still forty eight hostages in Gaza, and once released,

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Speaker 2: the area certainly needs to be rebuilt. Israel's nearly two

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Speaker 2: year long campaign has killed more than sixty four thousand

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Speaker 2: people in the Palestinian enclave. According to local authorities. It

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Speaker 2: spiked to hunger crisis and led to allegations that Israel

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Speaker 2: is committing genocide.

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Speaker 1: Now, Danish drug giant Novo nordesk wor cut nine thousand

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Speaker 1: jobs globally and has downgraded its profit forecast. As the

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Speaker 1: maker of a zempic and we go Vi struggles to

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Speaker 1: fend off copycat drug manufacturers and retain its market share.

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Speaker 2: It's like the rise and fall. It's quite incredible. It's

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Speaker 2: been the drug company over the last five years creating

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Speaker 2: weight loss drugs, which helped quintuple. That's five times, isn't it. Yes, yeah, good.

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Speaker 2: Quintuple its share price over the past four years. That

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Speaker 2: was until the middle of last year. Since then has

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Speaker 2: lost seventy percent of its value as copycat drugs and

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Speaker 2: the growth of Generation two weight loss drugs it's into

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Speaker 2: its market share. All so, Eli Lilly has become the

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Speaker 2: number one weight loss farmer company, taking over from Novo

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Speaker 2: nor disc Now the job cuts them ound to eleven

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Speaker 2: percent of its workforce, part of the company wide transformation

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Speaker 2: to simplify the organization. But doesn't it show in that

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Speaker 2: big farmer area. Unless you can be at the absolute

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Speaker 2: front of the curve, you have copycat drugs competitors coming

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Speaker 2: at you. Very tough business.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it certainly is okay. Up next is Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Q and A. Today it is the Week Ahead

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Speaker 1: with Stephen Cocolas, our resident economist. I mentioned that earlier.

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Speaker 1: It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Sean, and have a safe flight back to

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Speaker 1: the south of France where I will speak to you.

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Speaker 1: I'll speak to you from there this time tomorrow. I'll

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Speaker 1: still be here in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the fifteenth of September twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thomas and that was Fear and Great. Have a great day, yeah,