1 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: It's Monday, November eighteen. Elite Japanese Marines are set to 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: join US Marines on Australian soil, training with our military 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: on annual rotations to the Northern Territory. It's all part 5 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: of a new alliance to counter China's increasing territorial ambitions, 6 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: and Defense Minister Richard Miles says he's determined to create 7 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: greater interoperability between the Three Nations. 8 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 2: And Israel. 9 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: Protesters of Gate crash the first day of department store 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: Maya's Christmas windows in Melbourne, even after Maya canceled its 11 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: official launch event. You can see how the protest unfolded 12 00:00:51,320 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dou h'en Donald 13 00:01:00,480 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: Trump bring peace to Eastern Europe. The President elect certainly 14 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: thinks he's the man for the job, and his new 15 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: right hand man, Elon Musk, could be a significant part 16 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: of negotiations. Today our chief international correspondent Cameron Stuart on 17 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: the prospects for ending Russia's brutal war. 18 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: I'll get it done, I'll get it negotiated. I'll get 19 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: out we got to get out. 20 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: That's Donald Trump doing what Donald Trump does, talking a 21 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 1: big game. 22 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 3: I will prevent World War three, and you are very 23 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 3: close to World War three. 24 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 2: Biden and Kamala got us into this war in Ukraine, 25 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 2: and now they can't get us out. 26 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: He's talking about the war in Ukraine, which pieces wouldn't 27 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 1: have even started if he'd been in charge. Trump made 28 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: a campaign issue of his critique of America's spending on 29 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: Ukrainian President Volodim Zelenski request the weaponry and equipment. 30 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: Every time Zelenski comes to the United States, he walks 31 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: away with one hundred billion dollars. 32 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: I think he's the greatest salesman on it. And Trump 33 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: sounded a lot like he admired Russian President Vladimir Putin 34 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: and Russia's formidable appetite for destruction. 35 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 2: That's what they do, is they fight wars. As somebody told. 36 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: Me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon. 37 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,959 Speaker 3: That's what they do. They fight and it's not pleasant. 38 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 2: But you know, we've given them. 39 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: But what if Donald Trump could actually end this war? 40 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: You know who thinks it's possible, Vladimir Zelenski. 41 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 3: I believe that the war will end, and it will 42 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 3: not end in the abstract, but there's no exact date. However, 43 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 3: the world and faster with the policy of the team 44 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 3: that will now lead the White House. This is their approach, team, 45 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 3: their promise to their society switch and it is also 46 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 3: very important to them Mitzangka. 47 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Cameron, I've 48 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: been intrigued in recent days to hear volodimye Zelenski, the 49 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: leader of Ukraine, talking on what's seem like optimistic terms 50 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: about the possibility of the war with Russia ending next year. 51 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been really interesting. Just so shortly after Donald 52 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 2: Trump was elected as the incoming president, we've had Zelenski, 53 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 2: president of Zelensky, say that we need to ensure that 54 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine ends next year by diplomatic means. 55 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 2: And he has also said that the election of Donald 56 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: Trump is likely to mean the end of the war 57 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 2: will come quicker. And of course this comes on the 58 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: back of Trump saying in a very Trumpian manner that 59 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 2: he would sort out the Ukrainian war within twenty four hours, 60 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 2: which of course no one believes. But Trump's point in 61 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 2: making this again in a Trump being way, is that 62 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: he is going to invest a lot of time in 63 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 2: getting a solution to this conflict very very quickly. So 64 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 2: it was really illuminating that Zelenski said that. 65 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: I think before the war, cam Trump was criticized for 66 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: being close to Vladimir Pushin, or at least being someone 67 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: who admired Vladimir Pushin. Where do you think he stands 68 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: now on this question of Russia versus Ukraine, given that 69 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,239 Speaker 1: we've watched two years of a very brutal and horrible war. 70 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 2: Well, Trump, because he's very opposed to America financing the war. 71 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 2: It's costing a lot of American money. He thinks it's 72 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 2: an endless war. He hates the concept of an endless war. 73 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 2: He thinks he is reasonably close to Vladimir Puchin. Of 74 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 2: course we haven't really tested that of late. So he 75 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: thinks he could try and wangle Putin into a deal 76 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 2: and Zelenski into a deal over the war. And the 77 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 2: basis of this clear is that, of course the front 78 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 2: line in Ukraine has been frozen now for well over 79 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 2: a year. I mean incremental gains one way, the incremental 80 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 2: gain is the other way. No one is really getting 81 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 2: anywhere here. There's two thoughts. The traditional Western thinking on 82 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 2: the war is that you should not give any see, 83 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 2: any territory to Vladimir Putin, because to do so would 84 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 2: be to effectively reward him for an illegal invasion of 85 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 2: a neighbor. That's really been the paramount Western thinking is 86 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 2: certainly by the foreign policy hawks. However, Trump's election I 87 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 2: think gives weight to the alternate version, which of course 88 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 2: is that this is a deadlock and you are better 89 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: off to strike a deal where roughly the border the 90 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 2: new border of Ukraine is where the front line is now, 91 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: which means that the Russians get the territory on the 92 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: eastern side of the Dombas region and Ukraine will lose 93 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: that extra territory. Now, remember a very important aspect here 94 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 2: in this discussion is that the Russians actually controlled about 95 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: ten percent of Ukraine before the war. That includes the 96 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 2: Crimea and also the Russian backed forces in Dombas. And 97 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:02,679 Speaker 2: so if the line was orn now as a ceasefire line, 98 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 2: a Russia we control about twenty percent of Ukraine. So 99 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: in other words, the Ukraine would seed ten percent that 100 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 2: they didn't already control. And I think that is the 101 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 2: area where Trump might see some possibility for negotiation. 102 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: You can see why it might be in Vladimir Zelenski's 103 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: interest to come to the table here if Trump is 104 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 1: going to come into office and cut off the vast 105 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: amounts of money that America gives Ukraine presently. But what 106 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: would be the incentive for Vladimir Putin to come to 107 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: the table cam Is it just about a territorial gain 108 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: for him? 109 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 2: I mean, certainly the outcome of the war, if the 110 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: front line was frozen where it is now is a 111 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 2: disappointment probably to Putin compared to where he started the war, 112 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: when he obviously wanted to take over, to get the 113 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 2: Kiev take over Ukraine. But the reality of Vladimir Putin 114 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: is still very difficult. They are losing a lot of men, 115 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 2: the Russians. There's various estimates, but we're talking a massive 116 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 2: amount of capualties. The war is becoming increasingly unpopular in Russia. 117 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 2: He has to mobilize new troops, which is very unpopular 118 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: with Russian mums and dads. There's a limit to how 119 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:13,160 Speaker 2: much Putin wants to keep fighting this war, I think, 120 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 2: even by his standards, But certainly he has an advantage 121 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 2: in manpower and finance, he could keep going. I think 122 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 2: that what Trump will try and do is appeal to 123 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: Putin's vanity in a way and say, look, you know 124 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 2: you've got more than you had. You've now got a 125 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 2: direct land corridor, if you recall, the Russians have gotten 126 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 2: that into Crimere because of the territory they've taken. And 127 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 2: this is the time to stop the war. And he's 128 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: going to have to hope that Putin pulls back a bit, 129 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: because Putin actually did annex three regions and he hasn't 130 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 2: actually got full control of those regions. So Putin would 131 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 2: have to have some faith saving at his end, and 132 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: Claire also Zelenski would have to have some faith saving 133 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 2: as well, because he has never ever verbalized the concept 134 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 2: that Ukraine is willing to give up an inch of 135 00:07:57,560 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 2: its territory, and so that would have to be a 136 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 2: big compromise from Zelenski's point of view as well. And 137 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 2: the problem for Zelenski is that, unlike Putin, he is 138 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 2: running out of troops, and if the US starts to 139 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 2: squeeze the finances, he will start to round out of 140 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 2: money as well. 141 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: One of the triggers for the war was Ukraine's desire 142 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: to enter NATO, and so you can see this war, 143 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: I suppose cam as a part of Vladimir Putin's resistance 144 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 1: against NATO's expansion, this great enemy that he perceives taking 145 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 1: over the rest of Europe. What would happen to that ambition? 146 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: Would there be any prospect that Ukraine or some of 147 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: those other Eastern European countries could join NATO after this? 148 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 2: I think the big carrot that would be dangled in 149 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 2: front of Putin for a deal like this would be 150 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: a promise that Ukraine does not join NATO for at 151 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 2: least a decade, perhaps twenty years or something like that. 152 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 2: Because Putin you can't imagine having invaded Ukraine on the 153 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: basis on the pretext that Ukraine was seeking NATO membership. 154 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 2: You can't imagine he would ever strike a peace under 155 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 2: arrangement where Ukraine automatically gets that membership. So I think 156 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: that the deal would be that Ukraine would have to 157 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 2: promise not to see NATO membership for X amount of years, 158 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,199 Speaker 2: and I think that's the only way that they'd get 159 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 2: the deal done. But it will be an absolutely huge 160 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 2: bargainingship in any negotiation what happens to Ukraine as far 161 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 2: as NATA membership is concerned. 162 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: Coming up, what role will Elon Musk play in peace negotiations. 163 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: Donald Trump presents himself as someone who's a deal maker, 164 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: who basically takes the principles of being a New York 165 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: property developer to the world stage. You know, he can 166 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:51,760 Speaker 1: make a deal with anyone, and that's what he does best. 167 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 1: It would be quite a remarkable turn of events, wouldn't 168 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: it cam if he could solve this European land war, 169 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: which has caused so much death and destruction. 170 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 2: It would And you know, while it might seem unlikely, 171 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 2: it is certainly possible. Fresh eyes, a fresh administration, and 172 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,359 Speaker 2: fresh ideas can help change a deadlock in lots of situations. 173 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 2: You can see that both the Russian side and the 174 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 2: Ukrainian side are getting slowly exhausted by this war that's 175 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 2: going nowhere. So you could argue that maybe we're a 176 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 2: couple of years too early. They probably have to beat 177 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 2: each other up for another two years with no game 178 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 2: before the exhausted parties finally come to the table. But 179 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 2: what Trump's trying to do is effectively look ahead and say, well, 180 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 2: that's going to happen anyway, so let's preempt it. Let's 181 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 2: get an earlier result here. So look, I think it 182 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 2: is possible that the election of Trump might actually lead 183 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 2: to some sort of breakthrough. Certainly not in the very fast, 184 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 2: clean nature that Trump has promised on the campaign trail, 185 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 2: but you could see the start of a negotiation process 186 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 2: quite soon that might eventually lead to something in the 187 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 2: longer term. 188 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: An intriguing figure on the fringe of this Ukraine war 189 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,320 Speaker 1: has been Elon Musk. For two years now, since the 190 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 1: beginning of the war, Ukraine has been asking for him 191 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: to turn on his Starlink satellite service so that Ukrainians 192 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: in the field and in their homes can still access 193 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: the internet and communications services despite the Russian attacks. Now 194 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: it seems Musk is very close to the White House, 195 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: if not actually in the White House. What do you 196 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: think that's going to mean for the dynamics of the war? 197 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, how curious is when Trump spoke to 198 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 2: Zelenski after Trump on the election, Elon Musk was in 199 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 2: on the core, which just shows the sort of influence 200 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 2: he's got at the moment with Donald Trump, and his 201 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 2: fingers are involved to some degree through the satellite communications 202 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 2: in the Ukraine War on both sides. So Musk is 203 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 2: an intriguing figure in the new Trump administration. He's obviously 204 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 2: got this new portfolio for cutting waste, but he seems 205 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 2: to be a bit modern that doesn't He seems to 206 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,680 Speaker 2: be almost emerging at this minute as Trump's right hand 207 00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 2: man and the whole series of things, including Ukraine. 208 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Donald Trump's 209 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: cabinet is taking shape and we've got all the latest 210 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 1: announcements and all the fallout twenty four to seven at 211 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: the Australian dot com dot you join us to make 212 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: sure you're always the first to know