1 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Christanamied. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, April twenty two, twenty twenty five cardinals from 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: around the world will gather in Rome to elect a 4 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:22,639 Speaker 1: new pope after Pope Francis died aged eighty eight. The 5 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: Vatican announced the Pontiff's passing a day after he appeared 6 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: at Saint Peter's Basilica on Easter Sunday. Women have abandoned 7 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: the coalition less than two weeks out from the federal election. 8 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 1: That's according to new data from News poll. It's a 9 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: sharp decline since the start of the campaign and it 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 1: could spell trouble for the opposition on polling day. You 11 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: can read all the latest from the campaign trail right 12 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: now at the Australian dot com dot au. Moves by 13 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: Russia in the Pacific have Anthony Albanesi and Peter Dutton 14 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: scrambling on defense. In today's episode, our defense expert Ben 15 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: packham unpicks what Russia's up to in Indonesia and if 16 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: we should be worried about its surprise appearance in our 17 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: neck of the woods last week. Halfway through the federal 18 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: election campaign. Peter Dutton dropped a bombshell, but this. 19 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 2: Is a very troubling development and suggestion that somehow Russia 20 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 2: would have some of their assets based in Indonesia, only 21 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 2: a short distance from obviously the north of our country. 22 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: The opposition leader was referencing an April fourteen report by 23 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: the Janes Defense Journal that Russia's top brass are keen 24 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: to build a military base in Indonesia. 25 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 2: It did the Prime Minister know about this before it 26 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 2: was publicly announced by the President of Indonesia And what 27 00:01:58,200 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: is the government's response to it? 28 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: The problem is such a deal was never announced by 29 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: Indonesia's President Proboo Subianto or anyone else for that matter. 30 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: Labour's most senior figures, including Prime Minister Anthony Alberesi, Defense 31 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: Minister Richard Miles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, leapt on 32 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:18,239 Speaker 1: the error. 33 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 3: He verbaled the President of Indonesia, this is reckless and 34 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 3: it is dangerous, too agro and too reckless. 35 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: And at the second Leader's debate on Wednesday night, Dunton 36 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: admitted he got it wrong. Kind of. 37 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:42,959 Speaker 2: The reference I was making was shouldn't have been to 38 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 2: the president. That was in relation to sources from the 39 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 2: Proboo government. It was a mistake and I'm happy to 40 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: a bit. What we got from the Indonesian authorities in 41 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: the reports was that the sources inside the Proboo government 42 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: confirmed that was the case. 43 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: But this is where things get confusing. The James report 44 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: did cite Indonesian government sources, but none have confirmed on 45 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: the record if a request was ever made by Russia 46 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: to station warplanes on Indonesia's Biak Island. Indonesia's Foreign Ministry 47 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: spokesman says no one's been given permission to establish a 48 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: military base, but he didn't mention if any specific requests 49 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: had been made by Russia. Labour's Employment Minister Murray Watt 50 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: was more firm. He told Sky News the Opposition hasn't 51 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 1: been briefed because the question was never asked. 52 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 4: They might as well ask for a briefing on the 53 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 4: Lockness monster. This is something that doesn't exist that they fabricated. 54 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 4: There is no proposal from Russia to have a base 55 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 4: anywhere in Indonesia in the way that Peter Dutton and 56 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 4: his colleagues have been claiming over the last couple of weeks. 57 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: But that's at odds with what some of what's Labour 58 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: con colleagues have said, which is that the request was 59 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: made but that Jakarta knocked it back. And so we've 60 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: kind of come full circle with senior coalition figures demanding 61 00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: greater transparency from the government on Russia's antics in the Pacific. 62 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 1: The coalition's Foreign affairs spokesman David Coleman said the inconsistencies 63 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: in Labour's statements are proof of briefing is required. On Monday, 64 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: Russian diplomat Sergey Tolchanov entered the chat, warning that Australia's. 65 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 5: Interests cannot extend to the territory of neighboring sovereign states 66 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 5: that pursue active and independent policies. 67 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: We've used AI to bring to life parts of a 68 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:43,599 Speaker 1: letter written to the Jakarta Post by the Moscow ambassador. 69 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 5: It is clear that the leaders of the two main 70 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 5: political parties, replacing each other in power and calling it democracy, 71 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,039 Speaker 5: are now trying to outdo each other, heating up the situation. 72 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 5: They stop at nothing, and the time has come to 73 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 5: play the so called Russian card. 74 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: And then Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi dodged questions about the 75 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: whole debacle dismissing Moscow's presence in the region as propaganda. 76 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 3: There's a lot that still remains unclear over this story, 77 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 3: but it's clear that there are quite close ties between 78 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: Moscow and Jakata, and the Janes Defense publication also suggested 79 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 3: that in fact, there's a security threat to Australia from 80 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 3: Moscow operating its military aircraft some thirteen hundred kilometers from Darwin. 81 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: Ben Packham is the Australian's Foreign affairs and Defense correspondent. 82 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: I spoke with him on Monday afternoon, when parts of 83 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: this story were still clear as mud. 84 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 3: Now there's been a lot of back and forth since 85 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 3: then about the exact details of what the request was. 86 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 3: Was it in fact made, was it granted, Was it 87 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 3: a request for a Russian base in India? Was it 88 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 3: just a request to transit through Indonesia by Russia. As 89 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 3: I said, it is difficult to know exactly what the 90 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 3: request was. But the Janes Defense Publication is a very 91 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 3: reputable publication and they stand by their report. And that 92 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 3: report mentioned documents and it mentioned high level sources in 93 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 3: Indonesia to back its reporting. And the point that the 94 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 3: coalition is making about all this is what did Labor 95 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: know about this request. Have we been blindsided by it? 96 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 3: What representations has the Albaneza government made to Indonesia about this? Now? 97 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 3: The Labor Party has tried to obfuscate and muddy the 98 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 3: waters about this issue because it just does not want 99 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 3: to be talking about potential strategic threat on its watch. 100 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 3: Now this was helped by Peter Dutton actually because this 101 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:04,040 Speaker 3: has assisted Labor to bat away subsequent lines of questioning 102 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 3: on this. But there's a lot of deeper questions here. 103 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 3: There's a few unknowns there. And Indonesia further says that 104 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 3: other nations military aircraft and vessels are free to undertake 105 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 3: peaceful missions from its territory. It seems that if Russia 106 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,440 Speaker 3: wanted to do what it did in twenty seventeen and 107 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 3: conduct surveillance missions from Biak Island, that it could do that. 108 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: Let's assume for a minute Russia did propose establishing a 109 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: military base in Indonesia. Would that be so wild? Since 110 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: last year, the two nations have been collaborating on a 111 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: commercial satellite launch facility on Biak Island, which is in 112 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: Indonesia's easternmost Papua Province, and following his inauguration in October, 113 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: Indonesian President Proboo Subianto signed onto the Bricks Developing Nations Group. 114 00:07:54,840 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: It's an intergovernmental organization comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, 115 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Within two weeks of 116 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: that agreement being signed, by lateral naval exercises were underway 117 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: in Indonesian waters. 118 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 3: We're all very used to China being spoken of as 119 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 3: a strategic threat for Australia in the region, but for 120 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 3: many people the emergence of Russia in this context has 121 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 3: been quite a surprise and of great interest. Now it 122 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 3: would obviously be quite bad in a strategic sense for 123 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 3: Australia to have Russia being free to operate its military 124 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 3: aircraft to our north. There has been quite a close 125 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 3: relationship between Russia and Indonesia over the years, dating back 126 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 3: to the Cold War and even earlier. Indonesia is a 127 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 3: big buyer of Russian military equipment and weapons, and we 128 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 3: also know that in twenty seventeen Russia used Biack Island 129 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 3: to stage reconnaissance miss using some of its long range 130 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,679 Speaker 3: bombers just eight years ago, so there's precedent for this, 131 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 3: and there's a whole lot of advantages of equatorial launch 132 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 3: locations for satellites. You get a benefit from the Earth's 133 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 3: rotational forces near the equator, so it is quite a 134 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 3: good location for a satellite launch facility. So really, if 135 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 3: all goes to plans, as far as Indonesia's concerned, this 136 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: island is going to be a hive of Russian activity, 137 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 3: and Russia, concerningly, will have more leverage, even more leverage 138 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,200 Speaker 3: over Jakarta. Underneath it all, it does seem that you 139 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 3: know that there is something to see here, that it's 140 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 3: quite serious, and that not only do we have to 141 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 3: worry about China's engagement and intentions in the region, but 142 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 3: we also have to worry about Russia's. 143 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,160 Speaker 1: Would the White House have clocked that any of this 144 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: is going on? Do you think? And how would it react. 145 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 3: Donald Trump his views on Russia appear to be much 146 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 3: more favorable than those of his predecessors. That's one thing. Also, 147 00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,840 Speaker 3: the US has a lot on its plate at the moment. 148 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 3: Donald Trump's moving incredibly fast on a whole range of 149 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 3: foreign policy and economic issues. I doubt that there'd be 150 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 3: a great deal of concern in Washington about this specific issue. 151 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 3: I think they would be well aware of Russia's activities 152 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 3: and efforts to gain more of a strategic foothold in 153 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 3: the Pacific, But I think it probably doesn't reach the 154 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 3: threshold of something that's going to hit the President's desk 155 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 3: right at the moment. 156 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: Coming up. How do you solve a problem like defense spending? 157 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: Ben Labor has signaled it won't boost defense spending to 158 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: the three percent of GDP guided by the United States 159 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: if it's re elected on May three, and the coalition's 160 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 1: defense policy will only be unveiled in the next couple 161 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: of days. Does this confusion around Russia's moves in the 162 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: Indo Pacific change the calculus for either party? Do you think. 163 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 3: This sort of draws attention in a broad sense to 164 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 3: the strategic challenges that both parties freely admit that Australia faces. 165 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 3: But while Labor has talked up those strategic challenges, we 166 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 3: saw in the recent federal budget that it is sticking 167 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 3: to its defense funding trajectory, so that has defense spending 168 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,680 Speaker 3: at roughly two point oh four percent of GDP in 169 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 3: the coming financial year, rising to something like two point 170 00:11:56,520 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: three three percent of GDP in the early twenty thirties. 171 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 3: The Coalition is going to promise to spend more than that. 172 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 3: They're talking about a target of two point five percent 173 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 3: in the medium term. That'll be in the early twenty thirties, 174 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 3: we believe, but you know that ramp up the trajectory 175 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 3: to get there in the shorter term as well. There's 176 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 3: quite a bit to do. And while Labor says that 177 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,599 Speaker 3: it's putting record money into defense and so forth, the 178 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 3: truth is that every year is a record year for 179 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: defense spending, because that's the nature of these things. So 180 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 3: I think this whole debate over Russia and also China 181 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 3: is going to feed into the coalition's election campaign. Whether 182 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: or not that will change any or many votes, that 183 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 3: remains to be seen. But I think we will see 184 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 3: the Coalition trying to walk the talk in terms of 185 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 3: matching the funding envelope to the sort of warnings of 186 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 3: what we face, the strategic circumstances that we face. 187 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: Do you think Peter Dutton's job in communicating that defense 188 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 1: policy is made harder by the fact that he appears 189 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: to have misunderstood a fairly crucial point about one of 190 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: Australia's closest neighbors. 191 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 3: I think by the time that defense policy is unveiled 192 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 3: in the next couple of days, that sort of proboogaff 193 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 3: will be behind him. It's just made it harder for 194 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 3: him to capitalize on the Russia issue in the meantime. 195 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 1: Ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign affairs and Defense correspondent. 196 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,840 Speaker 1: This story is developing quickly. You can read the latest 197 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot com dot au