Speaker 1: I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM. It's
Speaker 1: a month since the start of the US Israeli war
Speaker 1: in Iran. Now, President Trump says he wants Iran's oil.
Speaker 1: He's threatening to seize the country's carg Island, saying he
Speaker 1: could take it easily. Meanwhile, thousands of US troops are
Speaker 1: arriving in the region today. Trita Parsi from the Quincy
Speaker 1: Institute for Responsible state Craft on a possible ground invasion
Speaker 1: of Iran? Will Trump do it or not? And what
Speaker 1: will it take for all sides to call it off.
Speaker 1: It's Tuesday, March thirty one.
Speaker 2: After four weeks of war in the Middle East, the
Speaker 2: conflict grinds on. Reports indicate the United States is preparing
Speaker 2: for possible weeks of ground operations inside of Iran that
Speaker 2: would include thousands of US service members.
Speaker 3: Over the weekend. TRADEO.
Speaker 1: We have the US sending thousands of troops to the
Speaker 1: Middle East right now, even though Trump has said that
Speaker 1: the ground invasion isn't necessary. Are you considering still putting
Speaker 1: boots on the ground and would you do that without
Speaker 1: going on I just.
Speaker 4: Haven of aults. We have tremendous numbers of ships over there.
Speaker 4: We don't need them long because of you know, the power.
Speaker 4: Look the I would say, we're just like we're a
Speaker 4: head of schedule on the borough. In a much bigger way,
Speaker 4: we're ahead of schedule.
Speaker 1: Whether where so, what do you think is going to happen?
Speaker 1: And what options would the US be assessing right now
Speaker 1: when it comes to putting troops on the ground.
Speaker 5: It does appear quite likely that Trump, because of the
Speaker 5: fact that this war is an utter failure so far,
Speaker 5: will ben opt to try to escalate his way out
Speaker 5: of this conflict, and the hope appears to be to
Speaker 5: either take some islands in the Persian God in order
Speaker 5: to reduce the ability of the Iranians to close the
Speaker 5: Strait of Hormoes, although it's very unclear that that actually
Speaker 5: will be effective, or alternatively, take some islands and essentially
Speaker 5: use them as collateral, hoping that this will be some
Speaker 5: sort of a pressure on the Iranians in which they
Speaker 5: get the islands back if they open up the straits.
Speaker 5: Or a third alternative is that there actually will be
Speaker 5: several front war in which several islands as well as
Speaker 5: ground invasion in other parts of Iran will take place
Speaker 5: in order to really just turn the momentum in the
Speaker 5: US favor, whereas in reality it's been in Iran's favor
Speaker 5: for the last couple of weeks at this point. All
Speaker 5: of these options, however, I think, are extremely unwise, extremely risky.
Speaker 5: It was a massive mistake to go into this war.
Speaker 5: It will be a massive mistake to escalate with ground troops.
Speaker 5: Two mistakes do not make it fixed.
Speaker 1: For Trup, why do you say that the Iranians have
Speaker 1: the upper hand And if there is a ground invasion,
Speaker 1: what is it that the US troops would face in
Speaker 1: terms of geography and physically.
Speaker 5: So a couple of points. So, first of all, this
Speaker 5: is a failure for the US because Trump only had
Speaker 5: a plan A in place. That plan was that within
Speaker 5: four days he would overthrow the government or force it
Speaker 5: to capitulate.
Speaker 6: We didn't the start this war. It was an unprovoked, unwarranted,
Speaker 6: illegal act of aggression against US, and we are only
Speaker 6: defending ourselves.
Speaker 5: This was based on a dramatic miscalculation and underestimation of
Speaker 5: Iran's resolve and strength, something that had been sold to
Speaker 5: him by the Israelis, lulling him into the belief that
Speaker 5: this would be so easy it's better to overthrow the
Speaker 5: government than to strike a deal with that.
Speaker 6: What we are doing as an act of self defense
Speaker 6: is targeting American basis, American installations, American assets, and American interests,
Speaker 6: which are unfortunately located in the territory of our neighbors.
Speaker 5: So he didn't have a plan B when all of
Speaker 5: that came crashing down, and we've seen them essentially improvising
Speaker 5: the war ever since. The other reason why this is
Speaker 5: a failure is because the Iranians completely surprised the United
Speaker 5: States in terms of their countermeasures. They were the ones
Speaker 5: who were defining the geography of this war, and they
Speaker 5: manage to close the strait of Hormones. They're the ones
Speaker 5: who decide which ships goes through and which ones do not,
Speaker 5: and then they're also collecting fees from those ships that
Speaker 5: are going through. So you asked, you know, what would
Speaker 5: the costs and topography be if they were to invade,
Speaker 5: if they were trying to go into the Iranian mainland.
Speaker 5: It's the very mountainous reminds you of Afghanistan. If they
Speaker 5: take some of these islands, which seems to be quite likely, Yes,
Speaker 5: they can probably take the islands relatively easily. But then
Speaker 5: what then you're stationary, You have nowhere to go. You
Speaker 5: can't move the island, and the Iranians will be raining
Speaker 5: down missiles and droned on American troops on those islands,
Speaker 5: and you will very likely end up having hundreds of
Speaker 5: Americans killed within the first.
Speaker 1: Forty eight hours trade A one strategy that you've written
Speaker 1: about that the US and Israelis might try against Iran
Speaker 1: is something called mowing the lawn. And it's what these
Speaker 1: rallies have done in Gaza for years.
Speaker 3: The region's language is mowing the grass.
Speaker 7: That Iran tries to build up terror capability, terror capability
Speaker 7: that everyone's wrongly have to mow the grass.
Speaker 1: Do you think it's something that the US would really
Speaker 1: consider now in Iran, this policy of just going back
Speaker 1: every few years to attack the country.
Speaker 5: So this is part of the reason why the Iranians
Speaker 5: are refusing to agree to a ceasfire. Trump tried to
Speaker 5: get a seasfire after four days, because they know what
Speaker 5: they believe that the United States and Israel would use
Speaker 5: the ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and then relaunch the war
Speaker 5: a year later, six months later, two years later, just
Speaker 5: like they did compared to June of last year when
Speaker 5: these Radis attacked him on. So the Iranians are actually
Speaker 5: refusing to end the war. They're the ones who are
Speaker 5: essentially said, we have a vitail on when this war ends,
Speaker 5: and they're not going to end it until they get
Speaker 5: guarantees that this war will not be started again, that
Speaker 5: this is an end to the war. It's not a ceasefire,
Speaker 5: and it is not a mowing of the law.
Speaker 6: And they continue to defend ourselves as much as it
Speaker 6: takes and as long as it takes in order to
Speaker 6: end this war in a way that it won't be
Speaker 6: repeated in the future.
Speaker 5: Part of the way that they're going to try to
Speaker 5: make sure that they have the fact to guarantee is
Speaker 5: to make this as costly as possible for the GCC states,
Speaker 5: for Israel, and for the United States to this war itself,
Speaker 5: so that everyone concludes this war was a mistake, and
Speaker 5: as a result, everyone concludes it would be a mistake
Speaker 5: to restart the war as well.
Speaker 8: The Hoofy movement in Yemen, who has attacked Israel for
Speaker 8: the first time since the start of the war on Iran.
Speaker 8: The Israeli military said the missile had triggered sirens in
Speaker 8: and around the southern city of Beersheba.
Speaker 1: We've also had this major development with of around regional proxies,
Speaker 1: the Hookies in Yemen. They've joined the fight as well,
Speaker 1: attacking Israel. Why do you think they've chosen now to
Speaker 1: get involved when they seem to be sitting on the
Speaker 1: sidelines earlier. And if they also start attacking shipping in
Speaker 1: the Red Sea like they did during the Israel gars
Speaker 1: a war, how is that really going to escalate not
Speaker 1: only the war but the global oil crisis.
Speaker 5: It's going to be devastating for the global oil crisis.
Speaker 5: In fact, right now we're not feeling yet what the
Speaker 5: actual crisis is. The Hooties, I think, are now flexing
Speaker 5: their muscles for a couple of reasons. One is to
Speaker 5: kind of signal what will happen if the United States
Speaker 5: goes in with the ground troops. It's a signal to
Speaker 5: saying that, you know, then the other golf will be
Speaker 5: closed as well, and that's going to dramatically increase crisis
Speaker 5: and really make the situation much worse for Trump. Secondly,
Speaker 5: I think we're now at a stadium which Israeli Pressed
Speaker 5: is reporting that eighty percent of Iran's missiles are getting through.
Speaker 5: The Israelis are running out of interceptors, the Ivanians have
Speaker 5: destroyed a lot of their radars other things that it's
Speaker 5: just making these Raelis much less effective. The Uti basals
Speaker 5: are not as effective as the Ivanian wants. So they're
Speaker 5: coming in at a moment in which it is much
Speaker 5: easier for them to hit Israel than it would have
Speaker 5: been if they had started weeks ago, when the israeliir
Speaker 5: defense systems were still pretty much attact. And I think
Speaker 5: also they're making this threat as a way of warning
Speaker 5: the Saudis and the Amordis that if they openly enter
Speaker 5: the war, which the Amoritis have hinted that they might,
Speaker 5: then the Hootis will likely start attacking them again, and
Speaker 5: then the war with the UTIs will have restarted, something
Speaker 5: that the Saris are very happy that they don't have
Speaker 5: to fight at this moment. There would be a huge
Speaker 5: mistake and challenge for the Saudis to have to deal
Speaker 5: both with Yvan and with the Houtis at the same time.
Speaker 1: Coming up, why is Trump humiliating his allies in the Gulf.
Speaker 9: He said, you know, it's amazing. President a year ago,
Speaker 9: you were a dead country. Now you're literally the hardest
Speaker 9: country anywhere in the world. And that was before we
Speaker 9: beat the hell out of a rod Treata.
Speaker 1: Obviously, we're all following very closely what Trump has to
Speaker 1: say about the war and all the countries involved in it.
Speaker 1: But one of the statements that really struck me over
Speaker 1: the last week was what he had to say in
Speaker 1: Florida when he was quoting the Saudi crown Prince Muhammed
Speaker 1: bin Salman.
Speaker 3: He really went on to basically mock him.
Speaker 9: He didn't think he'd be kissing my ass.
Speaker 5: He really didn't.
Speaker 9: He thought he'd be just another American president that was
Speaker 9: a loser where the country is going downhill. But now
Speaker 9: he has to be nice to me. You tell him
Speaker 9: he'd better be nice to me.
Speaker 3: What was that all about?
Speaker 1: Because Saudi, as you've said, is being hit hard in
Speaker 1: this war. Trump used to have a lot of respect
Speaker 1: for its leaders, but he now seems to want to
Speaker 1: humiliate them. Doesn't he need all the allies he can
Speaker 1: get right now?
Speaker 5: This is a typical pattern. We see countries make themselves
Speaker 5: dependent on the United States, and then Trump cannot resist
Speaker 5: but to humiliate them. For the fact that they are dependent.
Speaker 5: A year ago, NBS actually was in a strong position
Speaker 5: visa VI Trump. Currently he isn't because of this war
Speaker 5: a ward apparently, according to New York Times and Washington Post,
Speaker 5: MBS lobby for so now the tables are turned and
Speaker 5: Trump just doesn't simply have what it takes to resist,
Speaker 5: and it tells the Saudis what will happen after this war.
Speaker 5: If the Saudi choice is to triple down on an
Speaker 5: American security umbrella, Saudi may have a few choices. They're
Speaker 5: not going to be able to go to China entirely.
Speaker 5: The Pakistan option has already fallen apart. More or less
Speaker 5: could try to find a new equilibrium with Iran, but
Speaker 5: that's going to be very tough and very humiliating for them.
Speaker 5: It's not going to be the same deal as they
Speaker 5: had last time when they normalize relations with Iran, or
Speaker 5: they can triple down and go down the path of
Speaker 5: further dependence on the United States. But if they do so,
Speaker 5: it's already clear Trump will treat them as a vassal stake,
Speaker 5: just as he has been treating the Europeans. Just take
Speaker 5: a look at how he's speaking about Starmar in the UK,
Speaker 5: for instance. So I think the GCC states are going
Speaker 5: to be in a very tough position. Obviously, they are
Speaker 5: infuriated with Iran because Iran has been striking at them.
Speaker 5: They have also allowed, or at least the US has
Speaker 5: been using their Arab space and bass. Even though the
Speaker 5: GCC states say that they're not actively involved.
Speaker 10: To Iran, the brotherly relationship, the neighborly relationship between our
Speaker 10: peoples should take paramount over any other political consideration. The
Speaker 10: fact that they decided to attack our country like this
Speaker 10: does not show, but never the relations I.
Speaker 5: Mean, the Iranians are destroying American airplanes outside the airfield,
Speaker 5: so they're landing there, they're refueling, they're being used. But
Speaker 5: will they go down the path of trying to make
Speaker 5: peace with Iran or go down the path of becoming
Speaker 5: dependent on the US. Neither of these options are particularly
Speaker 5: attractive to any of these CCC states.
Speaker 1: So right now we have more US troops arriving in
Speaker 1: the Gulf, talk of an imminent ground invasion, and then
Speaker 1: we also had Trump give the Iranians a peace plan
Speaker 1: via Pakistani diplomats. The Iranians rejected that they came back
Speaker 1: with their own plan. Do you think that this Pakistani
Speaker 1: back channel seems to be gaining traction and could it
Speaker 1: lead to a way out of this war or are
Speaker 1: we just too deep in right now?
Speaker 5: I mean, the Pakistani channel could potentially lead to something.
Speaker 5: The Pakistanis are very eager to put an end to
Speaker 5: this war because there were only two three days away
Speaker 5: from running out of fuel altogether. So the manner in
Speaker 5: which Asian countries have been devastated by this war, it's
Speaker 5: very different from what the US has felt. The US
Speaker 5: is really not feeling the cost quite yet, but we've
Speaker 5: seen that Philippines is in an emergency situation now, India, Bangladesh,
Speaker 5: Pakistan are all closing offices. People are working from home
Speaker 5: because they have to save on the fuel. But reality is,
Speaker 5: if those diplomatic talks end up on the basis of
Speaker 5: what the Trump administration's fifteen point plan was, it's absolutely
Speaker 5: not going to go anywhere. Those were still demands and
Speaker 5: made it look as if the Vans had to capitulate
Speaker 5: to the United States, as if the US was winning
Speaker 5: this war. Beyond that, I think it would be extremely
Speaker 5: foolish to negotiate this in public. But the US is
Speaker 5: leaking this stuff deliberately for a simple reason. They want
Speaker 5: to have an immediate reduction of the oil prices by
Speaker 5: saying that talks are taking place. But the more they
Speaker 5: do that, the more they undermine the actual effectiveness of
Speaker 5: those talks. Clear whether the US is doing this simply
Speaker 5: to push down all prices in the short term before
Speaker 5: it invades the country with ground troops, or if Trump
Speaker 5: just is not capable of playing a long game and
Speaker 5: a short game at the same time.
Speaker 1: Trader, I lived in the Gulf for a decade, and
Speaker 1: I keep thinking back to all these major events, the
Speaker 1: Iraq War, the Arab Spring, serious civil war, the rise
Speaker 1: of Islamic State, and when you reflect on all of
Speaker 1: that history, it still feels like this could be the
Speaker 1: biggest crisis that the Middle East has faced in the
Speaker 1: last twenty years.
Speaker 3: What do you think where is all of this heading?
Speaker 5: This likely will end up becoming one of the biggest
Speaker 5: shifts in the region in the last couple of decades,
Speaker 5: perhaps going all the way back to nineteen seventy nine,
Speaker 5: because one of the things that likely will come out
Speaker 5: of this is that the threat of American military force
Speaker 5: against Yvon will no longer carry any credibility or effectiveness.
Speaker 5: Nat has relied on that threat extensively to try to
Speaker 5: extract nuclear concessions from Iran. Yvon may very well end
Speaker 5: up building a bomb, having been attacked twice by two
Speaker 5: nuclear weapons states in the midst of negotiations. But even
Speaker 5: if it doesn't, what is the US going to say
Speaker 5: in future nuclear talks, if you don't agree to these terms,
Speaker 5: we will bomb you. And as a result, the entire
Speaker 5: balance in the region and Yvon's the terrence against Israel
Speaker 5: is going to become something completely different. There's going to
Speaker 5: take some serious diplomacy in which the United States in Iran,
Speaker 5: and as we'll all understand that they're all going to
Speaker 5: have to give some concessions, it might view these Raelis
Speaker 5: should not be involved in the negotiations because these rallies
Speaker 5: don't want an end to the war at all. The
Speaker 5: US does, and the Iranians do at the right price
Speaker 5: sanctions relief. Hopefully, the US, from the standpoint can also
Speaker 5: then convince the Iranians that in return they will start
Speaker 5: selling at least half of their oil in US dollars
Speaker 5: instead of the Chinese one. But Trump, if he continues
Speaker 5: this this will destroy his presidency and define his presidency
Speaker 5: in the same manner that the Iraq War destroyed and
Speaker 5: define George W. Bush's presidency.
Speaker 3: Treda, thank you very much for speaking with us today.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 3: Also in the news.
Speaker 7: We're making feel cheaper today because we understand that Australians
Speaker 7: are under serious pressure.
Speaker 10: Herbo.
Speaker 7: We really also want to encourage Australians who can to
Speaker 7: take public transport to help save fuel for the areas
Speaker 7: and industries that need it.
Speaker 1: The federal government has announced it will have the fuel exercise,
Speaker 1: cutting petrol and diesel by around twenty six cents per
Speaker 1: later for the next three months. It's part of a
Speaker 1: new national fuel Security plan, which includes better cooperation between
Speaker 1: the states and potential rationing to ensure supplies for critical services.
Speaker 1: And a former Christmas Island immigration detention worker, Jason Virgo,
Speaker 1: has won the safe Liberal seat of McKillop. This brings
Speaker 1: the total number of One Nation seats in the Lower
Speaker 1: House to three. One Nation is also a head in
Speaker 1: another seat, which remains in doubt, Narranga on the state's
Speaker 1: York Peninsula. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening,