WEBVTT - Will Trump invade Iran?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a month since the start of the US Israeli war

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<v Speaker 1>in Iran. Now, President Trump says he wants Iran's oil.

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<v Speaker 1>He's threatening to seize the country's carg Island, saying he

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<v Speaker 1>could take it easily. Meanwhile, thousands of US troops are

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<v Speaker 1>arriving in the region today. Trita Parsi from the Quincy

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<v Speaker 1>Institute for Responsible state Craft on a possible ground invasion

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<v Speaker 1>of Iran? Will Trump do it or not? And what

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<v Speaker 1>will it take for all sides to call it off.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Tuesday, March thirty one.

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<v Speaker 2>After four weeks of war in the Middle East, the

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<v Speaker 2>conflict grinds on. Reports indicate the United States is preparing

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<v Speaker 2>for possible weeks of ground operations inside of Iran that

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<v Speaker 2>would include thousands of US service members.

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<v Speaker 3>Over the weekend. TRADEO.

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<v Speaker 1>We have the US sending thousands of troops to the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East right now, even though Trump has said that

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<v Speaker 1>the ground invasion isn't necessary. Are you considering still putting

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<v Speaker 1>boots on the ground and would you do that without

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<v Speaker 1>going on I just.

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<v Speaker 4>Haven of aults. We have tremendous numbers of ships over there.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't need them long because of you know, the power.

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<v Speaker 4>Look the I would say, we're just like we're a

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<v Speaker 4>head of schedule on the borough. In a much bigger way,

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<v Speaker 4>we're ahead of schedule.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether where so, what do you think is going to happen?

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<v Speaker 1>And what options would the US be assessing right now

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to putting troops on the ground.

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<v Speaker 5>It does appear quite likely that Trump, because of the

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<v Speaker 5>fact that this war is an utter failure so far,

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<v Speaker 5>will ben opt to try to escalate his way out

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<v Speaker 5>of this conflict, and the hope appears to be to

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<v Speaker 5>either take some islands in the Persian God in order

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<v Speaker 5>to reduce the ability of the Iranians to close the

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<v Speaker 5>Strait of Hormoes, although it's very unclear that that actually

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<v Speaker 5>will be effective, or alternatively, take some islands and essentially

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<v Speaker 5>use them as collateral, hoping that this will be some

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<v Speaker 5>sort of a pressure on the Iranians in which they

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<v Speaker 5>get the islands back if they open up the straits.

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<v Speaker 5>Or a third alternative is that there actually will be

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<v Speaker 5>several front war in which several islands as well as

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<v Speaker 5>ground invasion in other parts of Iran will take place

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<v Speaker 5>in order to really just turn the momentum in the

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<v Speaker 5>US favor, whereas in reality it's been in Iran's favor

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<v Speaker 5>for the last couple of weeks at this point. All

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<v Speaker 5>of these options, however, I think, are extremely unwise, extremely risky.

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<v Speaker 5>It was a massive mistake to go into this war.

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<v Speaker 5>It will be a massive mistake to escalate with ground troops.

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<v Speaker 5>Two mistakes do not make it fixed.

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<v Speaker 1>For Trup, why do you say that the Iranians have

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<v Speaker 1>the upper hand And if there is a ground invasion,

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<v Speaker 1>what is it that the US troops would face in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of geography and physically.

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<v Speaker 5>So a couple of points. So, first of all, this

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<v Speaker 5>is a failure for the US because Trump only had

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<v Speaker 5>a plan A in place. That plan was that within

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<v Speaker 5>four days he would overthrow the government or force it

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<v Speaker 5>to capitulate.

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<v Speaker 6>We didn't the start this war. It was an unprovoked, unwarranted,

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<v Speaker 6>illegal act of aggression against US, and we are only

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<v Speaker 6>defending ourselves.

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<v Speaker 5>This was based on a dramatic miscalculation and underestimation of

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<v Speaker 5>Iran's resolve and strength, something that had been sold to

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<v Speaker 5>him by the Israelis, lulling him into the belief that

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<v Speaker 5>this would be so easy it's better to overthrow the

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<v Speaker 5>government than to strike a deal with that.

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<v Speaker 6>What we are doing as an act of self defense

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<v Speaker 6>is targeting American basis, American installations, American assets, and American interests,

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<v Speaker 6>which are unfortunately located in the territory of our neighbors.

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<v Speaker 5>So he didn't have a plan B when all of

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<v Speaker 5>that came crashing down, and we've seen them essentially improvising

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<v Speaker 5>the war ever since. The other reason why this is

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<v Speaker 5>a failure is because the Iranians completely surprised the United

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<v Speaker 5>States in terms of their countermeasures. They were the ones

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<v Speaker 5>who were defining the geography of this war, and they

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<v Speaker 5>manage to close the strait of Hormones. They're the ones

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<v Speaker 5>who decide which ships goes through and which ones do not,

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<v Speaker 5>and then they're also collecting fees from those ships that

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<v Speaker 5>are going through. So you asked, you know, what would

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<v Speaker 5>the costs and topography be if they were to invade,

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<v Speaker 5>if they were trying to go into the Iranian mainland.

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<v Speaker 5>It's the very mountainous reminds you of Afghanistan. If they

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<v Speaker 5>take some of these islands, which seems to be quite likely, Yes,

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<v Speaker 5>they can probably take the islands relatively easily. But then

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<v Speaker 5>what then you're stationary, You have nowhere to go. You

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<v Speaker 5>can't move the island, and the Iranians will be raining

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<v Speaker 5>down missiles and droned on American troops on those islands,

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<v Speaker 5>and you will very likely end up having hundreds of

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<v Speaker 5>Americans killed within the first.

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<v Speaker 1>Forty eight hours trade A one strategy that you've written

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<v Speaker 1>about that the US and Israelis might try against Iran

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<v Speaker 1>is something called mowing the lawn. And it's what these

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<v Speaker 1>rallies have done in Gaza for years.

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<v Speaker 3>The region's language is mowing the grass.

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<v Speaker 7>That Iran tries to build up terror capability, terror capability

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<v Speaker 7>that everyone's wrongly have to mow the grass.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's something that the US would really

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<v Speaker 1>consider now in Iran, this policy of just going back

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<v Speaker 1>every few years to attack the country.

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<v Speaker 5>So this is part of the reason why the Iranians

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<v Speaker 5>are refusing to agree to a ceasfire. Trump tried to

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<v Speaker 5>get a seasfire after four days, because they know what

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<v Speaker 5>they believe that the United States and Israel would use

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<v Speaker 5>the ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and then relaunch the war

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<v Speaker 5>a year later, six months later, two years later, just

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<v Speaker 5>like they did compared to June of last year when

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<v Speaker 5>these Radis attacked him on. So the Iranians are actually

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<v Speaker 5>refusing to end the war. They're the ones who are

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<v Speaker 5>essentially said, we have a vitail on when this war ends,

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<v Speaker 5>and they're not going to end it until they get

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<v Speaker 5>guarantees that this war will not be started again, that

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<v Speaker 5>this is an end to the war. It's not a ceasefire,

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<v Speaker 5>and it is not a mowing of the law.

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<v Speaker 6>And they continue to defend ourselves as much as it

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<v Speaker 6>takes and as long as it takes in order to

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<v Speaker 6>end this war in a way that it won't be

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<v Speaker 6>repeated in the future.

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<v Speaker 5>Part of the way that they're going to try to

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<v Speaker 5>make sure that they have the fact to guarantee is

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<v Speaker 5>to make this as costly as possible for the GCC states,

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<v Speaker 5>for Israel, and for the United States to this war itself,

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<v Speaker 5>so that everyone concludes this war was a mistake, and

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<v Speaker 5>as a result, everyone concludes it would be a mistake

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<v Speaker 5>to restart the war as well.

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<v Speaker 8>The Hoofy movement in Yemen, who has attacked Israel for

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<v Speaker 8>the first time since the start of the war on Iran.

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<v Speaker 8>The Israeli military said the missile had triggered sirens in

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<v Speaker 8>and around the southern city of Beersheba.

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<v Speaker 1>We've also had this major development with of around regional proxies,

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<v Speaker 1>the Hookies in Yemen. They've joined the fight as well,

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<v Speaker 1>attacking Israel. Why do you think they've chosen now to

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<v Speaker 1>get involved when they seem to be sitting on the

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<v Speaker 1>sidelines earlier. And if they also start attacking shipping in

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<v Speaker 1>the Red Sea like they did during the Israel gars

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<v Speaker 1>a war, how is that really going to escalate not

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<v Speaker 1>only the war but the global oil crisis.

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<v Speaker 5>It's going to be devastating for the global oil crisis.

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<v Speaker 5>In fact, right now we're not feeling yet what the

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<v Speaker 5>actual crisis is. The Hooties, I think, are now flexing

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<v Speaker 5>their muscles for a couple of reasons. One is to

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<v Speaker 5>kind of signal what will happen if the United States

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<v Speaker 5>goes in with the ground troops. It's a signal to

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<v Speaker 5>saying that, you know, then the other golf will be

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<v Speaker 5>closed as well, and that's going to dramatically increase crisis

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<v Speaker 5>and really make the situation much worse for Trump. Secondly,

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<v Speaker 5>I think we're now at a stadium which Israeli Pressed

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<v Speaker 5>is reporting that eighty percent of Iran's missiles are getting through.

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<v Speaker 5>The Israelis are running out of interceptors, the Ivanians have

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<v Speaker 5>destroyed a lot of their radars other things that it's

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<v Speaker 5>just making these Raelis much less effective. The Uti basals

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<v Speaker 5>are not as effective as the Ivanian wants. So they're

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<v Speaker 5>coming in at a moment in which it is much

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<v Speaker 5>easier for them to hit Israel than it would have

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<v Speaker 5>been if they had started weeks ago, when the israeliir

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<v Speaker 5>defense systems were still pretty much attact. And I think

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<v Speaker 5>also they're making this threat as a way of warning

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<v Speaker 5>the Saudis and the Amordis that if they openly enter

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<v Speaker 5>the war, which the Amoritis have hinted that they might,

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<v Speaker 5>then the Hootis will likely start attacking them again, and

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<v Speaker 5>then the war with the UTIs will have restarted, something

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<v Speaker 5>that the Saris are very happy that they don't have

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<v Speaker 5>to fight at this moment. There would be a huge

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<v Speaker 5>mistake and challenge for the Saudis to have to deal

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<v Speaker 5>both with Yvan and with the Houtis at the same time.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, why is Trump humiliating his allies in the Gulf.

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<v Speaker 9>He said, you know, it's amazing. President a year ago,

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<v Speaker 9>you were a dead country. Now you're literally the hardest

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<v Speaker 9>country anywhere in the world. And that was before we

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<v Speaker 9>beat the hell out of a rod Treata.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, we're all following very closely what Trump has to

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<v Speaker 1>say about the war and all the countries involved in it.

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<v Speaker 1>But one of the statements that really struck me over

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<v Speaker 1>the last week was what he had to say in

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<v Speaker 1>Florida when he was quoting the Saudi crown Prince Muhammed

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<v Speaker 1>bin Salman.

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<v Speaker 3>He really went on to basically mock him.

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<v Speaker 9>He didn't think he'd be kissing my ass.

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<v Speaker 5>He really didn't.

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<v Speaker 9>He thought he'd be just another American president that was

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<v Speaker 9>a loser where the country is going downhill. But now

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<v Speaker 9>he has to be nice to me. You tell him

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<v Speaker 9>he'd better be nice to me.

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<v Speaker 3>What was that all about?

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<v Speaker 1>Because Saudi, as you've said, is being hit hard in

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<v Speaker 1>this war. Trump used to have a lot of respect

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<v Speaker 1>for its leaders, but he now seems to want to

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<v Speaker 1>humiliate them. Doesn't he need all the allies he can

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<v Speaker 1>get right now?

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<v Speaker 5>This is a typical pattern. We see countries make themselves

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<v Speaker 5>dependent on the United States, and then Trump cannot resist

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<v Speaker 5>but to humiliate them. For the fact that they are dependent.

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<v Speaker 5>A year ago, NBS actually was in a strong position

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<v Speaker 5>visa VI Trump. Currently he isn't because of this war

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<v Speaker 5>a ward apparently, according to New York Times and Washington Post,

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<v Speaker 5>MBS lobby for so now the tables are turned and

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<v Speaker 5>Trump just doesn't simply have what it takes to resist,

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<v Speaker 5>and it tells the Saudis what will happen after this war.

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<v Speaker 5>If the Saudi choice is to triple down on an

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<v Speaker 5>American security umbrella, Saudi may have a few choices. They're

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<v Speaker 5>not going to be able to go to China entirely.

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<v Speaker 5>The Pakistan option has already fallen apart. More or less

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<v Speaker 5>could try to find a new equilibrium with Iran, but

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<v Speaker 5>that's going to be very tough and very humiliating for them.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not going to be the same deal as they

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<v Speaker 5>had last time when they normalize relations with Iran, or

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<v Speaker 5>they can triple down and go down the path of

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<v Speaker 5>further dependence on the United States. But if they do so,

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<v Speaker 5>it's already clear Trump will treat them as a vassal stake,

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<v Speaker 5>just as he has been treating the Europeans. Just take

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<v Speaker 5>a look at how he's speaking about Starmar in the UK,

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<v Speaker 5>for instance. So I think the GCC states are going

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<v Speaker 5>to be in a very tough position. Obviously, they are

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<v Speaker 5>infuriated with Iran because Iran has been striking at them.

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<v Speaker 5>They have also allowed, or at least the US has

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<v Speaker 5>been using their Arab space and bass. Even though the

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<v Speaker 5>GCC states say that they're not actively involved.

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<v Speaker 10>To Iran, the brotherly relationship, the neighborly relationship between our

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<v Speaker 10>peoples should take paramount over any other political consideration. The

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<v Speaker 10>fact that they decided to attack our country like this

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<v Speaker 10>does not show, but never the relations I.

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<v Speaker 5>Mean, the Iranians are destroying American airplanes outside the airfield,

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<v Speaker 5>so they're landing there, they're refueling, they're being used. But

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<v Speaker 5>will they go down the path of trying to make

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<v Speaker 5>peace with Iran or go down the path of becoming

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<v Speaker 5>dependent on the US. Neither of these options are particularly

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<v Speaker 5>attractive to any of these CCC states.

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<v Speaker 1>So right now we have more US troops arriving in

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<v Speaker 1>the Gulf, talk of an imminent ground invasion, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we also had Trump give the Iranians a peace plan

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<v Speaker 1>via Pakistani diplomats. The Iranians rejected that they came back

0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 1>with their own plan. Do you think that this Pakistani

0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.000
<v Speaker 1>back channel seems to be gaining traction and could it

0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.480
<v Speaker 1>lead to a way out of this war or are

0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:51.800
<v Speaker 1>we just too deep in right now?

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.440
<v Speaker 5>I mean, the Pakistani channel could potentially lead to something.

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.320
<v Speaker 5>The Pakistanis are very eager to put an end to

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 5>this war because there were only two three days away

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 5>from running out of fuel altogether. So the manner in

0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.280
<v Speaker 5>which Asian countries have been devastated by this war, it's

0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 5>very different from what the US has felt. The US

0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:12.200
<v Speaker 5>is really not feeling the cost quite yet, but we've

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:17.160
<v Speaker 5>seen that Philippines is in an emergency situation now, India, Bangladesh,

0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 5>Pakistan are all closing offices. People are working from home

0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 5>because they have to save on the fuel. But reality is,

0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 5>if those diplomatic talks end up on the basis of

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 5>what the Trump administration's fifteen point plan was, it's absolutely

0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 5>not going to go anywhere. Those were still demands and

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:37.559
<v Speaker 5>made it look as if the Vans had to capitulate

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 5>to the United States, as if the US was winning

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.199
<v Speaker 5>this war. Beyond that, I think it would be extremely

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.959
<v Speaker 5>foolish to negotiate this in public. But the US is

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:49.240
<v Speaker 5>leaking this stuff deliberately for a simple reason. They want

0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 5>to have an immediate reduction of the oil prices by

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:54.839
<v Speaker 5>saying that talks are taking place. But the more they

0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:58.520
<v Speaker 5>do that, the more they undermine the actual effectiveness of

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:02.760
<v Speaker 5>those talks. Clear whether the US is doing this simply

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.160
<v Speaker 5>to push down all prices in the short term before

0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:08.360
<v Speaker 5>it invades the country with ground troops, or if Trump

0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.160
<v Speaker 5>just is not capable of playing a long game and

0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 5>a short game at the same time.

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 1>Trader, I lived in the Gulf for a decade, and

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.360
<v Speaker 1>I keep thinking back to all these major events, the

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Iraq War, the Arab Spring, serious civil war, the rise

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:27.160
<v Speaker 1>of Islamic State, and when you reflect on all of

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 1>that history, it still feels like this could be the

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>biggest crisis that the Middle East has faced in the

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 1>last twenty years.

0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.320
<v Speaker 3>What do you think where is all of this heading?

0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:40.200
<v Speaker 5>This likely will end up becoming one of the biggest

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:43.400
<v Speaker 5>shifts in the region in the last couple of decades,

0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 5>perhaps going all the way back to nineteen seventy nine,

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.400
<v Speaker 5>because one of the things that likely will come out

0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 5>of this is that the threat of American military force

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:59.320
<v Speaker 5>against Yvon will no longer carry any credibility or effectiveness.

0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.920
<v Speaker 5>Nat has relied on that threat extensively to try to

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 5>extract nuclear concessions from Iran. Yvon may very well end

0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:10.360
<v Speaker 5>up building a bomb, having been attacked twice by two

0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 5>nuclear weapons states in the midst of negotiations. But even

0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 5>if it doesn't, what is the US going to say

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.600
<v Speaker 5>in future nuclear talks, if you don't agree to these terms,

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 5>we will bomb you. And as a result, the entire

0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:27.600
<v Speaker 5>balance in the region and Yvon's the terrence against Israel

0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 5>is going to become something completely different. There's going to

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.200
<v Speaker 5>take some serious diplomacy in which the United States in Iran,

0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 5>and as we'll all understand that they're all going to

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 5>have to give some concessions, it might view these Raelis

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.760
<v Speaker 5>should not be involved in the negotiations because these rallies

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.960
<v Speaker 5>don't want an end to the war at all. The

0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:49.760
<v Speaker 5>US does, and the Iranians do at the right price

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 5>sanctions relief. Hopefully, the US, from the standpoint can also

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 5>then convince the Iranians that in return they will start

0:15:57.120 --> 0:16:00.840
<v Speaker 5>selling at least half of their oil in US dollars

0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:05.119
<v Speaker 5>instead of the Chinese one. But Trump, if he continues

0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 5>this this will destroy his presidency and define his presidency

0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.840
<v Speaker 5>in the same manner that the Iraq War destroyed and

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 5>define George W. Bush's presidency.

0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 3>Treda, thank you very much for speaking with us today.

0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.200
<v Speaker 5>Thank you so much for having me.

0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 3>Also in the news.

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 7>We're making feel cheaper today because we understand that Australians

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:43.520
<v Speaker 7>are under serious pressure.

0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 10>Herbo.

0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:47.800
<v Speaker 7>We really also want to encourage Australians who can to

0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 7>take public transport to help save fuel for the areas

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.160
<v Speaker 7>and industries that need it.

0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.880
<v Speaker 1>The federal government has announced it will have the fuel exercise,

0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:59.440
<v Speaker 1>cutting petrol and diesel by around twenty six cents per

0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:02.360
<v Speaker 1>later for the next three months. It's part of a

0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:06.920
<v Speaker 1>new national fuel Security plan, which includes better cooperation between

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:11.720
<v Speaker 1>the states and potential rationing to ensure supplies for critical services.

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:18.280
<v Speaker 1>And a former Christmas Island immigration detention worker, Jason Virgo,

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:21.639
<v Speaker 1>has won the safe Liberal seat of McKillop. This brings

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.080
<v Speaker 1>the total number of One Nation seats in the Lower

0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 1>House to three. One Nation is also a head in

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:31.199
<v Speaker 1>another seat, which remains in doubt, Narranga on the state's

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:35.720
<v Speaker 1>York Peninsula. I'm Nicole Johnston. This is seven am. Thanks

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:36.240
<v Speaker 1>for listening,