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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today.

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Speaker 1: The federal government reduces its commitment to cut carbon emissions,

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Speaker 1: triggering criticism from all sides. The local jobs market weakens,

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Speaker 1: offering more promise of interest rate cuts in coming months,

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Speaker 1: and a Donald Trump appointee influences US broadcast at ABC

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Speaker 1: to cancel the Jimmy Kimmel Show. Plus Macquarie Group reportedly

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Speaker 1: discussed merging with global juggernaut Carlisle Group, while Santos's share

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Speaker 1: price tumbles after a thirty billion dollar bid for the

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Speaker 1: oil and gas giant fell over. It is Friday, the

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Speaker 1: nineteenth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: What are twenty four hours in news?

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Speaker 2: We have a twenty four hours. It's funny the show today.

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Speaker 2: Normally we do, you know, ten to twelve stories. I

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Speaker 2: suppose don't we? I mean I think we've got six

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Speaker 2: or seven today because every one of them is a cracker.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all big, So we better get going. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning, the federal government has committed to

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Speaker 1: cutting Australia's carbon emissions by between sixty two percent and

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Speaker 1: seventy percent by twenty thirty five from two thousand and

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Speaker 1: five levels. That is part of a new plan to

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Speaker 1: reduce emissions from all parts of the Australian economy.

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Speaker 2: The new target range is based on advice from the

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Speaker 2: Climate Change Authority and is lower than the original range

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Speaker 2: of sixty five to seventy five percent proposed by the

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Speaker 2: Authority last year. Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi said reaching the

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Speaker 2: upper limits of the target range would require commitment by

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Speaker 2: all levels of government and the private sector. The government

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Speaker 2: says it will introduce policies in five priority areas to

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Speaker 2: achieve the result. One more renewable energy to electrification of

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Speaker 2: transport and households, three expanding the use of clean fuel,

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Speaker 2: four boosting new technologies, and five increasing carbon removals from

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Speaker 2: land use. The government also announced a bunch of new

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Speaker 2: funding commitments, including seven billion dollars into the Clean Energy

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Speaker 2: Finance Corporation and National Reconstruction Fund, and forty million dollars

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Speaker 2: for electric vehicle charging. It's part of Australia's obligations as

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Speaker 2: a signatory to the twenty fifteen Paris Climate Agreement and

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Speaker 2: rely on new policy support in the industrial, transport and

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Speaker 2: electricity sectors. The government also released a net zero plan,

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Speaker 2: six individual sector plans, the Climate Change Authorities, Advice and

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Speaker 2: Treasuries modeling of the economic costs and benefits of a

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Speaker 2: sixty five percent target.

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Speaker 1: Now, sean, this is a reduction in the potential target.

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Speaker 1: So a couple of questions. Is that a surprise, how's

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Speaker 1: it going to play out politically? And is it the

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Speaker 1: case that we have just seen the government really do

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Speaker 1: the remarkable managed to annoy every single interest group all

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Speaker 1: at the same time.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they're doing a good job when you're annoying everyone.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right. There's no no one particular of the

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Speaker 1: group has been favored everyone. He has got a bone

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Speaker 1: to pick with some element of this and that's probably

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Speaker 1: a good balance, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Maybe. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said a

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Speaker 2: target of more than seventy percent wasn't achievable, hence they

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Speaker 2: had reduced it, having said that the government wants to

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Speaker 2: legislate this target. Now, the Coalition hate it, business groups

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Speaker 2: hate it. The Greens say it's too low. So they

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Speaker 2: are well in two between a rock and a hard place.

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Speaker 2: The Greens want a higher target. The opposition want a

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Speaker 2: much lower target, so a lot of negotiation to go.

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Speaker 2: I suppose the government's already struggling to meet its commitment

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Speaker 2: to reduce emissions by forty three percent before twenty thirty,

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Speaker 2: so I think Michael LEDs a bit of pragmatism in

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Speaker 2: all this. Under sort of existing policy settings, the strates

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Speaker 2: projected to reach a mission cuts of just over fifty

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Speaker 2: percent by twenty thirty five, so obviously they've got to

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Speaker 2: ramp it up to get to that seventy percent. A

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Speaker 2: big part of the problem, no matter how much you

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Speaker 2: want a politic about it, is just the slow rollout

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Speaker 2: of both renewable energy plants I think solar and wind,

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Speaker 2: and the infrastructure needed to transmit the power. The Authorities

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Speaker 2: advice set a target range of sixty two to seventy

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Speaker 2: percent could be achieved with existing technologies and practices and

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Speaker 2: wouldn't need to rely on new unproven technology. It will, however,

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Speaker 2: need a huge amount of spending. The Treasury modeling says

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Speaker 2: the economy would be two point two trillion dollars bigger

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Speaker 2: by twenty fifty hundred sixty five percent target, with five

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Speaker 2: point one million more jobs than eighty percent greater investment. However,

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Speaker 2: under a disorderly transition scenario, the modeling suggests the economy

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Speaker 2: would be one point two trillion dollars smaller than the baseline,

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Speaker 2: with lower wages and higher electricity prices.

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Speaker 1: There's just so much in all of that, and the

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Speaker 1: business community seems at this stage just to be processing it.

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Speaker 1: I suppose that one thing that it does give is

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Speaker 1: some certainty and some clarity around where we're heading.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean I think the business community, more so

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Speaker 2: than the coalition, know that there needs to be a

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Speaker 2: target and they do like that clarity. But the reality,

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is hard. This is really hard. And

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Speaker 2: business leaders in recent months have come out and said,

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Speaker 2: you know, the infrastructure needed to get the power generation

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Speaker 2: to someone's home or someone's business is huge. It's a

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Speaker 2: huge spend and business wants government to support that. And

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Speaker 2: I think Government's going to have to support it because

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Speaker 2: otherwise it won't get done.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think it's interesting that we've also seen

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Speaker 1: business leaders like Innes Willocks from the Australian Industry Group

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Speaker 1: coming out and saying that there actually needs to be

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Speaker 1: some political unity on these, that we need both sides

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Speaker 1: of parliament of politics to agree on this, because that's

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Speaker 1: the only way that we're going to be able to

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Speaker 1: move forward rather than reigniting the old climate was and.

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Speaker 2: So good luck with that.

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Speaker 1: Might be slightly optimistic there now, Sean. Moving on from

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Speaker 1: the climate news, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates

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Speaker 1: yesterday morning by twenty five basis points. Little bit cautious

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Speaker 1: though about future rate cuts. While the FED is more

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Speaker 1: worried about the labor market in the world's biggest economy,

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Speaker 1: it's also concerned about tariffs. As you probably would expect.

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Speaker 2: FED chairs round Powell expressed concerns about tariff driven inflation pressures,

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Speaker 2: saying the central Bank was in a meeting by meeting situation.

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Speaker 2: With regards to additional rate moves, the FED Open Market

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Speaker 2: Committee voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a

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Speaker 2: quarter of a point to a target range of four

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Speaker 2: to four point two five percent. That's how they do it.

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Speaker 2: Rate projections from the FED show that federal government governors

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Speaker 2: expect to lower rates by another half a percentage point

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Speaker 2: by the end of this year a quarter point next year,

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Speaker 2: which is slightly more than they expected over the same

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Speaker 2: period in June. Just an interesting side note, FED Governor

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Speaker 2: Stephen Mirn. Donald Trump joined the board only last week

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Speaker 2: voted against the decision of a twenty five basis point

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Speaker 2: cut in favor of lowering rates by fifty basis points.

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Speaker 1: Okay, how did all of that translate then through to

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Speaker 1: the local market? A lot of anticipation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, the SMPA s X two hundred closed are

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Speaker 2: nearly a percent to eighty seven hundred and forty five points.

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Speaker 2: The FED decision was a major factor influencing the market,

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Speaker 2: with stocks exposed to the US sold off, so companies

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Speaker 2: like Coal operated Transurban, Palettemaker, Brambles Building Materials Group, James

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Speaker 2: Hardy in Ramsey Healthcare Care all ended lower. But there

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Speaker 2: was plenty of other big news around the place as well.

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Speaker 2: Ten of the eleven sub indices in fact closed lower yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The shock announcement that a Middle Eastern based consortium had

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Speaker 2: dumped its bid for oil and gas groups Santas, which

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about in a moment, sent other energy stocks lower,

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Speaker 2: with Woodside, Beach Energy and Creon Energy all tumbling. Not

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Speaker 2: helping were weak or oil prices with Brench back below

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Speaker 2: sixty eight US dollars a barrel. The banks were mixed

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Speaker 2: while retailers and big miners will lower broadly. Michael, pretty

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Speaker 2: weak day on the market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, we're going to take a very quick break.

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Speaker 1: While we're doing that, why don't you sign up for

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Speaker 1: the free Fear and Greed daily newsletter. I put a

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Speaker 1: link in today's show notes and every day you will get.

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Speaker 1: Every weekday you get the top news stories you need

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Speaker 1: to know in your inbox by six am. Back in

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Speaker 1: the moment with the rest of the day's business news, Shawn.

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Speaker 1: The local jobs market are softening, with figures showing five

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Speaker 1: four hundred people lost work in August, adding to the

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Speaker 1: argument that the Reserve Bank should cut interest rates in

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Speaker 1: coming months.

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Speaker 2: Economists expected a gain of twenty one thousand jobs. Now,

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Speaker 2: the unemployment rates stayed steady at four point two percent.

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Speaker 2: You when you have job losses and the unemployment rates

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Speaker 2: stayed steady, that means that the participation rate, the number

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Speaker 2: of people looking for jobs, has to fall. And that's

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Speaker 2: exactly what happens. There's been a real I mean it's

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Speaker 2: quite a sharp slow down in the labor market. In

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Speaker 2: the first four month so the year, the economy added

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Speaker 2: eighty thousand jobs. The next four months twenty four thousand jobs.

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Speaker 2: The job losses last month were driven by a forty

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Speaker 2: nine hundred decline in full time workers, which was only

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Speaker 2: partially offset by a thirty five and a half thousand

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Speaker 2: increase in part time employment. Just like the FED in

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Speaker 2: the US, the RBA is now more likely to focus

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Speaker 2: on the jobs market, not inflation. Remember, earlier in the week,

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Speaker 2: the bank's chief economist Sarah Hunter said inflation was pretty

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Speaker 2: much under control. Put all that into the economic mix master, Michael,

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Speaker 2: I love doing it. Switch it on, surprising in a

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Speaker 2: ninety percent chance of a rate cut at the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Banks Board meeting November three four. That is, that would

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Speaker 2: take the cashwright to three point three five percent.

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Speaker 1: When you talk about putting stuff into the economics mix, master,

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Speaker 1: do you just then have this image of just stuff

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Speaker 1: just splattering all over because you've turned.

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Speaker 2: It onto to life right and center. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, Now this next story, Sean, is fascinating, and I'll

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Speaker 1: get you to explain the significance of it, because it

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Speaker 1: is well, it would have been potentially massive. Macquarie Group

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Speaker 1: reportedly held talks to merge with private equity giant Carlisle Group.

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Speaker 1: The discussions ended up going nowhere, but the whole thing

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Speaker 1: is pretty extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Yes, such a merger would have created a global investment

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Speaker 2: powerhouse with one trillion dollars in combined assets. US Group

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Speaker 2: Semaphore reported the news that the two companies had held

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Speaker 2: merger talks, though Mcquarie wasn't commenting yesterday. Mcquarie broadly has

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Speaker 2: been shifting away from public assets so I think ASX

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Speaker 2: listed stocks, for example, towards private assets, having this year's

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Speaker 2: sold as North American and European public Asset Management Unit.

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Speaker 2: What's really interesting about this deal, Michael, is that mcquarie

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Speaker 2: is obviously thinking of more radical ways to add value

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Speaker 2: to shareholders so long the king maker of investment banking

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Speaker 2: in Australia, times are just much tougher for that sector

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Speaker 2: as a whole, particularly outside Australia. Macquarie doesn't have the

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Speaker 2: reputation in public markets as enlisted markets, Wall Street markets

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Speaker 2: as it does here, so it is pushing into that

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Speaker 2: private market category, which is where Carlole Group, a private

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Speaker 2: equity firm, plays. So nothing happened, you know, he's a

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Speaker 2: story that you know where nothing happened. But the fact

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Speaker 2: that Macquarie Group is thinking this way is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: Now show on this next one. We talked about it

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Speaker 1: yesterday morning on the show, but then we saw it.

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Speaker 1: Then the fallout hit markets. Santos's share price tumbled yesterday

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Speaker 1: after that news that the XIG consortium, led by the

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Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company ADNOK, had dumped its plan

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Speaker 1: to buy the oil and gas major for thirty billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was very much a bolt from the blue.

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Speaker 2: Just two days before buying a binding bid was expected.

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Speaker 2: The consortium said it had found factors in its due

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Speaker 2: diligence that had triggered the walk away. Now I suppose

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Speaker 2: that's what due diligence is all about, isn't it. Santos

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Speaker 2: said x would not agree to acceptable terms that protected

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Speaker 2: value for Santos shareholders. Given how long a transaction would

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Speaker 2: take to complete. Put that into English, deal was always

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Speaker 2: going to be a challenge to get through regulatory and

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Speaker 2: political hurdles. Santos's board wanted protections for shareholders during that period.

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Speaker 2: Until yesterday, Santos's share price was up thirty percent this year,

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Speaker 2: mostly thanks to the bid. Yesterday it closed down twelve percent.

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Speaker 1: So what I mean discovering things during due diligence. Would

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Speaker 1: that just be an awareness of the fact that it

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Speaker 1: is going to be politically hard to get through all

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Speaker 1: of those bits and pieces, or is there kind of

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Speaker 1: more to this that we might play out, or is

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Speaker 1: that just it is that it we're not going to

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Speaker 1: find anything else out now.

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Speaker 2: Some or all of what you just said. It might

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Speaker 2: actually be the financials aren't as good as they think

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Speaker 2: it might be actually to get this through Foreign Investment

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Speaker 2: Review Board approval in Australia, The political hurdles, other regulatory

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Speaker 2: hurdles too hard. Don't think we can do it like

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Speaker 2: any of those things. When you going to due diligence,

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Speaker 2: they've probably got a bunch of people focused on it

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Speaker 2: sixty hours a week for a number of weeks, eight weeks,

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Speaker 2: I think it was maybe ten weeks. And you come

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Speaker 2: up and you really get greater detail about what's going on,

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Speaker 2: what you need to do. And I mean, I've been

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Speaker 2: part of a due diligence process. When a pegroup was

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Speaker 2: trying to buy Fairfax, they walked away from it because

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Speaker 2: they just uncovered stuff that you just don't know without

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Speaker 2: getting into the building.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And I suppose then you're making an assessment

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Speaker 1: of a whether it's going to be a good deal

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Speaker 1: in the long run, but also whether it is going

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Speaker 1: to be a realistic prospect to actually get through knowing

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Speaker 1: that there are all of these hurdles that you're going

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Speaker 1: to need to clear. And if you don't think it's

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Speaker 1: going to happen, then why wouldn't you walk away now

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Speaker 1: rather than wait for it to fall over at a

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Speaker 1: later day because it's going to be more expensive.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, And reading between the lines in terms of

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Speaker 2: the announcements made by the consortium, the Santass board has

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Speaker 2: obviously said this is going to be an eighty month process.

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Speaker 2: Our shareholders need to be protected. Therefore you need to

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Speaker 2: do ABCD, and they didn't want to do ABCD so

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Speaker 2: walked away. Not that's me saying that. That hasn't that's

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Speaker 2: not official. I'm just reading to in the lines there.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, International news time now, Sean And in

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Speaker 1: what critics are labeling as a severe impingement on the

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Speaker 1: freedom of the press, US network ABC has pulled late

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Speaker 1: night host Jimmy Kimmel off air indefinitely over comments that

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Speaker 1: he made about the shooting of right wing influencer Charlie Kirk.

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Speaker 1: It came after a Trump appointee responsible for free to

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Speaker 1: air licenses was very critical of Kimmel's comments.

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Speaker 2: Yes, this is a very big story. Earlier this week,

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Speaker 2: Kimmel said during his show that the Maga Gang, m

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Speaker 2: Aga Make America Great Mega Gang was trying to score

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Speaker 2: political points off Kirk's killing. In an opening monologue, Kimmel said,

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Speaker 2: I quote the Maga Gang desperately trying to characterize this

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Speaker 2: kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one

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Speaker 2: of them, and doing everything they can to score political

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Speaker 2: points from it. The late night host also criticized flags

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Speaker 2: being flanted half masked in honor of Kirk, and mocked

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump's reaction to the shooting. I quote

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Speaker 2: what Kimmel said on that This is not how an

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Speaker 2: adult grieves the murder of someone he calls a friend.

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Speaker 2: This is how a four year old mourns a goldfish. Now, obviously,

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Speaker 2: kim I was often paked fin at Trump on the

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Speaker 2: day Kirk was shot. To Kimmel's defense, he took to Instagram,

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Speaker 2: condemned the attack, and sent love to the conservative activist family.

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Speaker 2: What happened next was the head of the US Communications regulator,

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Speaker 2: a guy called Brendan Carr, Trump appointing, said that the

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Speaker 2: ABC host had shown I quote the sickest conduct possible,

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Speaker 2: and he urged Disney to take action. He said an

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Speaker 2: apology from Kimmel would be a very reasonable, minimal step.

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Speaker 2: Disney then took action. It sacked Jimmy Kimmel. Trump said,

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Speaker 2: in response to that great news from America that was

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Speaker 2: on truth Social He went on to say the ratings

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Speaker 2: challenged Jimmy Kimmel's show is canceled capital letters. Congratulations to

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Speaker 2: the ABC for finally having the courage to do what

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Speaker 2: had to be done. He criticized two other late night hosts,

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Fallon and Seth Myers, whom he described as two

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Speaker 2: total losers on fake news NBC. Their ratings are horrible.

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Speaker 2: The decision, not surprisingly, has triggered a blast of criticism politicians,

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Speaker 2: media experts, saying Kimmel is being censored, totally against freedom

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Speaker 2: of the press. The fact that Trump subsequently congratulated ABC

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Speaker 2: for getting rid of Kimmel, and the fact that he's

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Speaker 2: pressuring now NBC over to their late night host Jimmy

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Speaker 2: Fallon and Seth Myers, it is a very sad state

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Speaker 2: of affairs.

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Speaker 1: Michael, Yeah, indeed, it is all right, Sean. Up next

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Speaker 1: is Fear and Greed, Q and A. Your guest today

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Speaker 1: is Daniel Shrimsky, who is the managing director of Vanguard Australia.

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Speaker 1: It is all about retirement. Vanguard has recently released the

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Speaker 1: How Australia Retires Report and it's basically looking at how

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Speaker 1: Australians are preparing for retirement, the impact of rising housing costs,

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Speaker 1: expectations are moving, financial literacy are changing the way that

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Speaker 1: people are retiring and Vanguard has done some fascinating research

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Speaker 1: into it. They're great supporter of us here Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: That one is coming up after the show, so stick

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Speaker 1: around for that one.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the nineteenth of September twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 2: Michael Thompson.

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Speaker 1: That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.