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Speaker 1: BHP is once again the largest company on the share market,

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Speaker 1: has resource stock surge and banks fall back, Auction clearance

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Speaker 1: rates take a tumble, and the very biggest super funds

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Speaker 1: get bigger. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news

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Speaker 1: for people who make their own decisions. It's Monday, the

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Speaker 1: thirtieth of September twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The main

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Speaker 1: story this morning. Resource stocks are surging on the back

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Speaker 1: of last week's stimulus from Beijing, with BHP once again

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Speaker 1: the big Australian taking the top spot on the ASEX

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Speaker 1: two hundred. For comwellth Bank, It's been an incredible turnaround

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Speaker 1: over the past week. It started with Beijing promising lower

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Speaker 1: interest rates and others stimuli to help the struggling economy

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Speaker 1: that triggered a surge in commodity prices and iron ore

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Speaker 1: prices topped the one hundred US dollars a ton mark

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Speaker 1: in Singapore that sent the shares of the big miners higher.

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Speaker 1: For the full week, BHP closed up a massive thirteen percent,

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Speaker 1: Rio Tinto jumped fifteen percent, Forest Kew Medals Group rows

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent. The Aussie dollar is a commodity currency, so

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Speaker 1: higher commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal, pushes up

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Speaker 1: the currency. It finished the week above sixty nine US cents,

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Speaker 1: about seven percent higher than where it was at its

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Speaker 1: low early last month. The rotation of miners out of

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Speaker 1: banks has been stark in the same period the last

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Speaker 1: five training sessions. Commonwealth Bank is down seven percent, National

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Speaker 1: Australia Bank's down six percent, Westpac five percent, and A

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Speaker 1: and Z four percent. In fact, the rotation has been

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Speaker 1: so sharp that on Friday, bitchp regained the mantle of

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Speaker 1: biggest company on the AX, worth two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: seven billion dollars, while Commonwealth Bank now comes in at

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Speaker 1: number two at two hundred and twenty five billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: Rio Tinto and fortes Kew Metals at now the tenth

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Speaker 1: and eleventh largest companies on the BASS, pushing good side

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Speaker 1: and tell straight down the pecking order. Bonus points for

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Speaker 1: the use of the term stimuli. Thank you, thank you

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Speaker 1: makes us feel very educated to begin the week. Now,

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Speaker 1: the big question, I suppose is this going to last well,

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Speaker 1: the rotation out of banks into minors. Is this actually

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Speaker 1: the way it's going to be for a while. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a very good question. It depends a bit on

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Speaker 1: whether you think what Beijing is doing will last. It

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Speaker 1: also depends on when you think interest rates in Australia

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Speaker 1: will start to fall. No doubt, the banks are very

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Speaker 1: expensive on a historical basis at least, and there is

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Speaker 1: more value in some commodity stocks. AMP chief economist Shane

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Speaker 1: Oliver says the risk of another correction in shares remains

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Speaker 1: high given stretched valuations, optimistic investor sentiment, the still high

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Speaker 1: risk of recession in the US and Australia, and geopolitical

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Speaker 1: risk around the US election. On the flip side, the

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Speaker 1: success in getting global inflation down, ramping up central bank

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Speaker 1: policy stimulus nearly fifty cent of global central banks, and

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Speaker 1: our cutting rates. Reserve Bank is closer joining in, but

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Speaker 1: if it's not there yet, China seemingly moving to a

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Speaker 1: whatever it takes policy stimulus. They're all very positive for

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Speaker 1: shares on a six to twelve month horizon, particularly if

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Speaker 1: there's no recession. Dr Oliver says that was a lot

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Speaker 1: of words to say, don't know what's going to happen. However,

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Speaker 1: this is a very good segue into the interview after

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Speaker 1: the show. Michael, you are absolutely right as a fantastic

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Speaker 1: time to be talking markets, isn't it. And your guest

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Speaker 1: today is Matthew Kidman from Centennial Asset Management, and I

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Speaker 1: ask him whether this rotation will at last? And Matthew

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Speaker 1: has some very interesting points on that. We talked to

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Speaker 1: him about why the banks have been sold down, why

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Speaker 1: the miners are doing well, and what about some of

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Speaker 1: the other sectors. What does he think is going to happen.

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Speaker 1: So great chat with Matthew. Yeah, Matthew's interviews the kind

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Speaker 1: of thing that all you need to do is sit

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Speaker 1: there with a powder paper and a pen and need

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Speaker 1: to take notes. He just knows so much about so

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Speaker 1: many different things, and you both cover so many different

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Speaker 1: topics during an interview and another. It goes for ten

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Speaker 1: or eleven minutes, and you will learn more in that

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Speaker 1: than well pretty much whatever else you do today. Matthew

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Speaker 1: has been very is a very successful fund manager. But

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Speaker 1: prior to getting into funds management, he actually was a

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Speaker 1: journalist and one of my very first colleagues at the

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Speaker 1: Sydney Morning Herald, and such a calm character no matter

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Speaker 1: what's going on. Around him. Matthew is calm. Yeah, great, great,

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Speaker 1: great communicator, well worth a listener. It is coming up

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Speaker 1: later in the playlist. Sean, we are talking about markets.

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Speaker 1: Where did things finish up on Friday? By the close, Yes,

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Speaker 1: and PA six two hundred was up slightly to two

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Speaker 1: hundred and twelve points and for the week the BOSS

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Speaker 1: was flat. Though that hides the fact that those mining

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Speaker 1: companies did really well on the banks have fallen back.

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Speaker 1: In corporate news on Friday, Endeavor Group chief executive Steve

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Speaker 1: Donahue been with a company thirty years, six years as CEO.

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Speaker 1: He stepped down in response to the liquor retailers share

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Speaker 1: price fell three percent. Also, the competition regulator, the Australian

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Speaker 1: Competition Consumer Commission, said it remains concerned about the proposed

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Speaker 1: acquisition of Nemoy Cotton by Olham Agri Holdings. Olham is

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Speaker 1: a Singapore based group because the multiple linkages between Olham

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Speaker 1: and Louis Dreyfus's company, which is another one of the

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Speaker 1: big cotton players. So we also have to see how

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Speaker 1: that takeover goes. All right. Thanks to blue chip Communication,

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Speaker 1: the experts helping financial services companies market, communicate and grow

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Speaker 1: as a blue chipcommunication dot com dot au. Give us

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Speaker 1: an overview of what's happening internationally, please Sean. The big

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Speaker 1: news this week is that the US Federal Reserve Chair

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Speaker 1: Jerome Powell is speaking tomorrow morning Australian time. Everyone wants

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Speaker 1: to know if the world's most important central bank is

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Speaker 1: thinking about cutting interest rates again. There are also jobs

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Speaker 1: figures out in the US. Later in the week, I

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Speaker 1: mentioned that about half the world's central banks have started

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Speaker 1: cutting interest rates, but not Australian. Michael, you will be

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Speaker 1: pleased to know. It's very important central bank meetings this week.

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Speaker 1: Why do I get the feeling that you are being

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Speaker 1: slightly sarcastic here. To be honest, the people in these

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Speaker 1: countries it is extremely important to them, maybe less important

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Speaker 1: to us. So go let me run through the central

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Speaker 1: baks Iceland, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Poland, Romania, Tanzania, Mozambi. I'd

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Speaker 1: like to say we'll keep you updated on all of those,

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Speaker 1: but I dare say we won't ever mention them again. Well,

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Speaker 1: I love the fact that after last week when Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank Governor Michelle Bullock was at pains to point out

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Speaker 1: that really it doesn't matter what anyone else does around

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Speaker 1: the world. We are running our own race here in Australia.

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Speaker 1: So really what happens in the Dominican Republic is probably

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Speaker 1: going to have very very very minimal bearing on US. Ah.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I think we have to

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Speaker 1: a research on that. Yeah, that can be your research

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Speaker 1: for this week. Sure, I can't not volunteering for that one.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the numbers, alls training just under seventy

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Speaker 1: two US dollars and barrel gold is fetching twenty six

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Speaker 1: fifty eight dollars. Announced, Bitcoin is worth almost sixty six

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Speaker 1: thousand US dollars and units done pretty well the past

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Speaker 1: week or so, and as I mentioned before, the Ausie

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Speaker 1: dollar is buying just over sixty nine US cents. All Right,

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Speaker 1: we have a favorite to cover, Sean. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean,

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Speaker 1: it was Grand Final weekend in Melbourne and that severely

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Speaker 1: reduced the number of home auctions over the past week.

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Speaker 1: Having said that, the preliminary clearance rate across the nation

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Speaker 1: tumbled to sixty four and a half percent. One weekend

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Speaker 1: does not make a spring or something like that. But

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Speaker 1: not a saying no, it's not was it? One? Swallow

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Speaker 1: does not make a summer one. I don't know you've

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Speaker 1: actually used that saying a couple of times, and well,

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Speaker 1: it feels like a saying from a generation that has

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Speaker 1: passed us by highly and my father, my father used

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Speaker 1: to say it to be honest, but you know what,

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Speaker 1: we'll bring it back. We'll bring it back. So that

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Speaker 1: sixty four point five percent was the lower number the

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Speaker 1: preliminary clearance rate since December last year. The final clearance

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Speaker 1: rate for the previous week was just sixty point seven percent.

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Speaker 1: It was also the last in twenty twenty four. According

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Speaker 1: to core Logic, twelve hundred times went under the hammer,

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Speaker 1: and Sydney its clearance rate went from seventy point three

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Speaker 1: percent last week to sixty six point one percent. That's

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Speaker 1: probably the best indicator given it was less affected by

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Speaker 1: the AFL Grand Final. There are only two hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty seven options. In Melbourne preliminary clearance rate of just

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Speaker 1: fifty six point seven percent. We can probably just ignore

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Speaker 1: that one because of the football. Adelaide came in at

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Speaker 1: seventy four point six percent, Brisbane fifty five percent. The

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Speaker 1: Act just under sixty six percent. You probably can ignore

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Speaker 1: the weekend's figures, and there's obviously an NRL final in

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Speaker 1: Sydney next week, not that that effects housing anywhere near

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Speaker 1: like the AFL does. It's just wow. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to overstate it. It's just going to be

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Speaker 1: very interesting to see what happens in the housing market

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Speaker 1: the next few weeks. It just feels like it's cooling

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Speaker 1: quite a bit, which is probably good for house buyers,

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Speaker 1: not so much sellers. Now, the Competition Regulator has published

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Speaker 1: its interim report for its Supermarkets inquiry, a report that

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Speaker 1: outlines what the age we'll see has heard from interest groups.

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Speaker 1: It says that supermarket retailing and Australia is in oligopoly,

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Speaker 1: with Woolies and Coals accounting for sixty seven percent of

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Speaker 1: supermarket retail sales nationally, all these at about nine percent.

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Speaker 1: Met Cash is about seven percent. It says that oligopolistic

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Speaker 1: market structures can limit incentives to compete vigorously on price.

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Speaker 1: Now Deputy chair Metcare said Woolies and Coals offer broadly

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Speaker 1: similar experiences to customers, undifferentiated product ranges, largely prices at

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Speaker 1: similar levels. Similar non price offerings, including loyalty programs. The

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Speaker 1: report says that food price growth is largely aligned with

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Speaker 1: inflation over the past five years, up twenty percent over

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Speaker 1: that period. Consumers are increasingly comparing prices online before buying.

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Speaker 1: They actually struggle to compare product and are losing trust

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Speaker 1: in sale price claims by supermarkets. No surprises after what

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Speaker 1: we heard last week. Meanwhile, many grocery suppliers have told

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Speaker 1: the ACHEO will see that they consider that they sometimes

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Speaker 1: receive prices below the cost of production and have little

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Speaker 1: choice but to agree to highly unfavorable terms, with these

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Speaker 1: terms being subject to ongoing changes by the major retailers.

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Speaker 1: Sixty seven percent Does that seem low to you? Yes,

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Speaker 1: so I was trying to work that out. I agree.

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Speaker 1: So sixty seven plus nine percent for Aldi, what's that

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Speaker 1: give us? Its seventy six matt cash is another seven

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Speaker 1: so or at eighty three percent, I figured that that's

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent. It's probably a lot in a huge amount

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Speaker 1: of very small retailers, so seven eleven would be an

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Speaker 1: example of that and probably costco in there. Ah, that's true,

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Speaker 1: so that they're not so small. They're really big, so

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Speaker 1: but just not not so many of them though around

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Speaker 1: the country. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but there would be

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Speaker 1: a lot of smaller kind of almost corner store style, yeah,

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Speaker 1: con convenience stores, yeah yeah. And I suppose maybe to

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Speaker 1: kind of green grossers that kind of thing come into

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Speaker 1: that probably as well. Yeah, there's a bit of an

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Speaker 1: argument at the moment about what how you capture the

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Speaker 1: supermarket sector, and so you could argue that there are

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Speaker 1: groups like Bunnings which is actually starting to offer particularly

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Speaker 1: they move into pet food and things like that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they are starting to offer a lot of supermarket products. Now,

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Speaker 1: of course they do not want to be known as supermarkets,

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Speaker 1: but there's an argument to suggest that, well you're offering

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Speaker 1: a lot of supermarket products. Great insights today, Sean, There

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Speaker 1: you go, there you go. Anyway, moving on, the bigger

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Speaker 1: super funds are getting even bigger. I mentioned this at

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Speaker 1: the top of the show, with Australian Super and Australian

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Speaker 1: Retirement Trust now accounting for more than half of all

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Speaker 1: new retirement savings and more than six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: five billion dollars in assets. Yeah, they are massive. So

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Speaker 1: they're the top two. The next five largest industry super

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Speaker 1: funds UNI, super Host plus Cebus, Rest and Hester manage

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Speaker 1: seven hundred billion dollars. That's about is a little bit more,

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Speaker 1: but not a lot more, tempercent more than what those

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Speaker 1: big two manage, and the gap between the top two

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Speaker 1: and the rest is growing. The growth in the two

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Speaker 1: megafunds is not necessarily a good thing because it could

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Speaker 1: trigger all sorts of governance issues and just challenges finding

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Speaker 1: places to actually put the money. That's according to analysts

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Speaker 1: at morning Star, Australian supernow manages three hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: one billion dollars in retirement savings alone, with Australian Retirement

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Speaker 1: Trust managing three hundred and fourteen billion. According to the

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Speaker 1: Australian Financial Review awhere, Super follows on one hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighty billion. Separate figures compiled by a morning Star show

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Speaker 1: Ozzie Super received thirty seven percent of inflows that's with

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Speaker 1: less withdrawals in the twelve months to the end of

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Speaker 1: June twenty twenty three. Australian Retirement Trust accounted for fifteen percent.

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Speaker 1: These funds are just massive and they're getting bigger and

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Speaker 1: there's a problem with that. Interested to get your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on this one, Shawn, the Financial Reviews annual list of

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Speaker 1: the ten most powerful business leaders. Topping the list is

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Common. Yes, so, Matt Common has

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Speaker 1: done a great job deflating the anger around banks and

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Speaker 1: has increasingly grown his brief speaking out and everything from

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Speaker 1: intergenerational inequity and artificial intelligence to housing and tax policy.

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Speaker 1: Number two on the list, and this refers back to

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Speaker 1: our earliest previous story was Mark Delaney, the chief investment

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Speaker 1: officer of Ozzie Super. Ozzie Super is powerful, as demonstrated

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Speaker 1: by scuppering of the Origin Energy deal last year. According

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Speaker 1: to the Finn, basically nothing big habins on the ASEX

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Speaker 1: without Ozzie Super knowing about it. Next on the list

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Speaker 1: is BHP CEO Mike Henry, then Hester's boss Debbie Blakey,

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Speaker 1: followed by Gina Reinhart and Andrew Forrest. And Star Entertainment

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Speaker 1: began trading again on Friday, the first time since the

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Speaker 1: end of August, having finally publish it's twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: financial year accounts, which showed a one point seven billion

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Speaker 1: dollar loss and sean it wasn't pretty. It wasn't pretty.

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Speaker 1: Stars share price lost fifty percent on opening before finishing

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Speaker 1: down more than forty percent. The company is now worth

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Speaker 1: one point three billion dollars, whereas at the end of

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Speaker 1: July its market cap was around well somewhere between three

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Speaker 1: and three and a half billion dollars. Under a finance

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Speaker 1: package secured last week, the Star will have access to

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Speaker 1: two hundred million dollars and two tranches of one hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollars each. The first will be available subject to

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Speaker 1: conditions later this week, but the interest rate on it

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Speaker 1: is very very high thirteen and a half percent. Last week,

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Speaker 1: the gaming group also failed to do a deal with

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Speaker 1: the Queensland government over tax relief. A lot of work

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Speaker 1: for management, okay. Turning to international news now, Sean and

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Speaker 1: Israel has killed Hasbella's leader, Hasse Nasula in a massive

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Speaker 1: strike on Beirute, in the latest in a series of

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Speaker 1: blows to the Lebanese militant group. The strike, in a

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Speaker 1: densely populated residential neighborhood in southern Beirut, was part of

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Speaker 1: an tense bombardment carried out by Israel forces and marked

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Speaker 1: a dramatic escalation of Israel's offensive against Hezbollah. According to

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Speaker 1: the Financial Times, the Lebanese group confirmed Nazraela's death saying

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Speaker 1: he had joined the group's long list of martyrs. It

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Speaker 1: said its leadership would continue to battle against Israel in

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Speaker 1: support of Gaza and Palestine, and in defense of Lebanon

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Speaker 1: and its steadfast and honorable people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin

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Speaker 1: Nett Yahoo said that Nazraela's killing was a necessary step

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Speaker 1: toward achieving the goals that Israel has set, including changing

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Speaker 1: the balance of power in the region for years to come. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 1: the conflict in the region is escalating, not deflating. Indeed, now,

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Speaker 1: the first new kind of treatment for schizophrenia patients in

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Speaker 1: decades has just been approved by the US Food and

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Speaker 1: Drug Administration. The new class of treatments could help stabilize

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Speaker 1: patients symptoms without the uncomfortable side effects that a company

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Speaker 1: existing antipsychotics. This side effects have always been the big

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Speaker 1: issue with many of these antipsychotic drugs. The new drug,

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Speaker 1: called Kabenfi, works differently than the class of drugs used

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Speaker 1: by many to treat schizophrenia. According to Wall Street Journey,

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Speaker 1: the Bristol myerscrib drug works by mobilizing a new target

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Speaker 1: in the brain. Traditional antipsychotic drugs have side effects including

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Speaker 1: weight gain, falling sleep, in voluntary muscle jerking. The new drug, though,

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Speaker 1: is not without its own side effects. Participants in clinical

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Speaker 1: trials reported higher levels of nausea, out vomiting, and constipation

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Speaker 1: than in the placebo group. Notwithstanding that, very very encouraging news,

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Speaker 1: but after many decades, there's a breakthrough in treatment for schizophrenia, Shawn.

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Speaker 1: Up next is Fear and Greed. The Week Ahead featuring

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Speaker 1: our resident economist Stephen could call us. Yes, I have

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Speaker 1: a great chat with Stephen. Not the biggest week for data,

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Speaker 1: but lots of little bits and pieces trade and building

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Speaker 1: approvals and retail trade, and they're all they're the sources

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Speaker 1: of information that the Kook loves. He can kind of

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Speaker 1: break him apart and think, oh, this is happening. That's happening.

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Speaker 1: And we had all the excitement of inflation Reserve Bank

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Speaker 1: last week. I think the cook needs just a little

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Speaker 1: bit of I don't I have bread and butter still

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Speaker 1: economic data this week, Michael, and he explains it all

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Speaker 1: so well. So that is coming up next, and speaking

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Speaker 1: of explaining things, well, stick around that after that for

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Speaker 1: your Daily Interview featuring Matthew Kidman. He starts off by

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Speaker 1: talking his words, the great rotation out of banks into minors,

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Speaker 1: and that's what we talk about. Yeah, So plenty of

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Speaker 1: good listening coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au,

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Speaker 1: which is where you can sign up for our free

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Speaker 1: weekly news that it comes out midweek, So do it

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Speaker 1: today and then you don't have to think about it

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Speaker 1: ever again. It will just land in your inbox mid

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Speaker 1: Wednesday morning. Thank you very much, Sean. Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Monday, the thirtieth of September twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast to please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Pride Die