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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. More than fifty thousand jobs

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Speaker 1: were lost last month, but that doesn't mean the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank is rushing to cut interest rates. A war of

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Speaker 1: words has erupted between Australian and US authorities over the

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Speaker 1: pharmaceutical benefit scheme, and Australia's population pushes beyond twenty seven

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Speaker 1: million plus. Victoria is the country's theft leader, and Starbucks

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Speaker 1: find fifty million dollars for spilling a cup of tea.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Daily Business News. People who

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Speaker 1: make their own decisions. It is Friday, the twenty first

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Speaker 1: of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Ayleman.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Sew I've got some great stories coming up today, plenty

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Speaker 1: to get through. The main story this morning. The number

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Speaker 1: of people employed fell by a surprisingly large fifty three

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Speaker 1: thousand people last month, Though the unemployment rate actually remained

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Speaker 1: at four point one percent. It's a pretty poor number

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Speaker 1: after many, many months of very very good numbers.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the drop was the sharpest fall since December

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, well below market expectations. Now one was

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Speaker 2: really panicking yesterday given it's just one data point. At

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Speaker 2: four point one percent, the unemployment rate remains around the

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Speaker 2: lowest in decades. The Bureau of Statistics explained it by

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Speaker 2: saying fewer older workers were returning to work in February

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Speaker 2: as opposed to most other februaries that contributed to the fall,

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Speaker 2: and employment in the younger age k HORT, which is

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Speaker 2: fifteen to fifty four years. Employment growth continues despite the fall.

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Speaker 2: Last month, total employment is two hundred and sixty six

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Speaker 2: thousand over a year earlier. That's just monthly growth of

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Speaker 2: about twenty two thousand new jobs. You know, Michael, you

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Speaker 2: know the trend is your friend, and say twenty two

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Speaker 2: thousand jobs, four point one percent unemployment rate, I reckon,

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Speaker 2: you can still say the labor market's pretty good.

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Speaker 1: What does it mean, though, Sean, this is the big question, right,

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Speaker 1: what does it mean for interest rates? Because we've heard

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Speaker 1: Michelle Bullock the Preserve Bank, talking about the labor market

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Speaker 1: and how tight it is.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so last month Michelle Bullock talked about like in

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Speaker 2: some reasons, the labor market's actually getting tighter. She was

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Speaker 2: talking in the context of the Central Bank not cutting

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Speaker 2: interest rates again anytime soon. So that number yesterday is

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Speaker 2: probably a bit of a relief for the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 2: It probably doesn't add to the argument too much about

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Speaker 2: where the Reserve Bank should cut rates anytime soon or not. Now,

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Speaker 2: financial markets priced in a seventy five percent chance of

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Speaker 2: a rate cut in May after the March quarter inflation figures,

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Speaker 2: and a one hundred percent chance of cut by the

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Speaker 2: end of July. So what we do now have is

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Speaker 2: a strong labor market, inflation coming back down to around

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Speaker 2: three percent on depending on which measure you look at,

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Speaker 2: but probably not the prospect of rate cuts anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: I should mention the interview that we have coming up

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Speaker 1: after the show. You are speaking with Callum Pickering, who

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Speaker 1: is senior economists from Indeed.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So we talk about the labor force numbers, but

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Speaker 2: then we get some information from Callum around what Indeed

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Speaker 2: knows about where people are applying for jobs, where there's growth,

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Speaker 2: what's happening on wages. It's a fascinating chat because it's

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Speaker 2: just well, beyond the labor force data, it's actually what's

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Speaker 2: happening on the ground.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's overlaid with real well data exactly. Yeah, it's fascinating.

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Speaker 1: So that was all going on in Australia. Big day

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Speaker 1: yesterday for economists. In the US, the Federal Reserve the

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Speaker 1: Central Bank hinted at further rate cuts in the world's

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Speaker 1: biggest economy.

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Speaker 2: So the FED cut its growth projections for the US

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Speaker 2: and penciled in half a percentage point rate cut this year.

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Speaker 2: It also upgraded its inflation forecast, which doesn't necessarily sit

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Speaker 2: very well with a rate cume. Central Bank said it

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Speaker 2: was still waiting for more progress on inflation and clarity

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Speaker 2: around Donald Trump's trade policies before making any further move

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Speaker 2: now for his partners to Trump responded, he criticized the

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Speaker 2: FED for not moving on rates, saying the Fed would

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Speaker 2: be much better off cutting interest rates as tariffs are introduced.

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Speaker 1: I love that even the Federal Reserve is waiting for

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Speaker 1: clarity over what's going on. All this economic news Sean

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Speaker 1: helped push the local share market a bit high yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It was a great day. It was the best single

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Speaker 2: session in six weeks, and the SMPA SX two hundred

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Speaker 2: closed up more than one point two percent two nine

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Speaker 2: hundred and nineteen points. There's a bit of a knee

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Speaker 2: jet reaction after those job numbers came out, because that

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Speaker 2: comes out the data increases the chance of an interest

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Speaker 2: rate cut. They perhap something at the margins, so people

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Speaker 2: immediately think that's by equities, though it had actually started

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Speaker 2: much higher and it just sort of kept trending yesterday,

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Speaker 2: and those jobs figures helped that.

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Speaker 1: Is that because I was so unexpected as well, That's

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Speaker 1: why it was such a knee jerk reaction.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I think the mood was there already, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and they just kept going with it. Okay. I think

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Speaker 2: among the banks, bank led the way, the real estate

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Speaker 2: stocks did well, tech stocks a bunch of like Iria

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Speaker 2: wise Tick promedicates, they all did pretty well yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, big day yesterday, it was is a

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Speaker 1: great day. Big day still to come today, Sean. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back in a moment with the rest of the

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Speaker 1: day's business news. Sewn. A decision by Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi,

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Speaker 1: immediately supported by Opposition leader Peter Dutton, to cut the

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Speaker 1: out of pocket payments on pharmaceuticals has triggered a war

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Speaker 1: of words with the US and potentially tariffs on medicines.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so plenty to this story. US drug industry members

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Speaker 2: have named Australia's pharmaceutical benefits scheme as one of the

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Speaker 2: egregious and discriminatory programs that should be targeted in Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump's upcoming decision on reciprocal tariffs, which is at the

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Speaker 2: beginning of next month. The industry blames the Australian policy

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Speaker 2: for cutting prices and blocking American exporters. Yesterday, Anthony Albanezi

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Speaker 2: said the pharmaceutical benefit scheme is not for sale, won't

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Speaker 2: be part of any future tariff negotiations now. Obviously the

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Speaker 2: drug industry in the US is putting pressure on Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump to put tariffs on Australian pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceutical rules is

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Speaker 2: much more important than still now. Umnium, for example, it's

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Speaker 2: one of Australia's largest exports. It's become a real focal

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Speaker 2: point in the tariff war. That's been helped by Labour's

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Speaker 2: pledge yesterday supported by the Coalition, as you said, to

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Speaker 2: reduce by six dollars sixty the cost of a script.

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Speaker 2: So the Albanezy government plans to bring the patient co

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Speaker 2: payment for subsidized medicines down to twenty five dollars from

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Speaker 2: thirty one dollars sixty cuts about a fifth of the

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Speaker 2: out of pocket expenses for about twenty million Australians.

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Speaker 1: It's really quite an extraordinary system, isn't it. And it's

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Speaker 1: spectacular and it's quite galling as an Australian to see

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Speaker 1: it kind of being used as a political thing with

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Speaker 1: the US.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that's right. I think that in terms

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Speaker 2: of the election, incumbency helps and if Donald Trump and

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Speaker 2: the US can pick on an Australian issue that we

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Speaker 2: think is really central to our well being, and this

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Speaker 2: could be it. This could be a real boom for

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Speaker 2: Anthony Abernezi because if he stands there and says strongly

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Speaker 2: this is part of our fabric. We don't do that,

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Speaker 2: we don't care what you think. That would work quite

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Speaker 2: well with the electro And obviously Peter Dutton agrees and

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Speaker 2: he's jumped on board too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I can't imagine there'll be too many people disagreeing

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Speaker 1: with that stance. Wow, that's a good take on that.

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Speaker 1: Sean Coles has singled out Victoria. This is interesting as

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Speaker 1: the state where they significantly higher level of theft and

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Speaker 1: suggested a rise in organized crime is behind the increase,

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Speaker 1: which is a trend supported by other supermarkets and fashion

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Speaker 1: retailers as well.

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Speaker 2: Coles says incidents of crime we're fifty four percent higher

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Speaker 2: in Victoria than in New South Wales last year as

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Speaker 2: it accelerated the roll out of new technology to make

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Speaker 2: theft harder. So Aora, a technology platform used by major retailers,

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Speaker 2: including Willi's Bunning's min thirty percent of the eight hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand incidents it tracked last year. We're in Victoria, according

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Speaker 2: to the Finn Review. Now it may sought after products

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Speaker 2: Michael fragrances, clothes, beauty products. Okay, I get that they're

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Speaker 2: small grocery, easy to steal groceries, but everyone's vouchers. I

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Speaker 2: always thought you had to have your voucher, So if

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Speaker 2: you steal a voucher, don't you have to Actually.

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Speaker 1: It's worthless until you're actually paid for it.

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Speaker 2: That's my thought anyway. Now there is a potentially an

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Speaker 2: economic reason for this. The Victorian economy has been struggling

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Speaker 2: since the COVID nineteen PM. The mean high unemployment, so

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Speaker 2: it's at four point six percent, four percent, It's had

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Speaker 2: lower house price growth. The actual economy economic growth hasn't

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Speaker 2: been too bad in Victoria, but that might be a

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Speaker 2: reason for it. Cole said that it's Victorian stores account

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Speaker 2: for almost half of its total security guard hours. Nationally.

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Speaker 1: There's a bunch of media reports around about Virgin Australia

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Speaker 1: returning to the ASX, with investment banks founding out potential investors.

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Speaker 2: Bain Capital owns Virgin Australia. It's sold twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: of it to Qatar that went through last week. Reports

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Speaker 2: say that advisors are scheduling meters with potential investors ahead

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Speaker 2: of a potential realisting. Our relisting has been speculated on

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Speaker 2: ever since Spain boarded really so there hasn't been anything

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Speaker 2: for the last couple of years. A couple of reasons

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Speaker 2: why it makes sense now that qatar corner steak means

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Speaker 2: that much better access into Europe for Virgin fliers. The

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Speaker 2: other one is that quantits A share prices up seventy

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Speaker 2: five percent of the past year. And I'm sure the

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Speaker 2: own of them in Vain is looking at that thinking wow,

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Speaker 2: if we've actually got this away, that could be us yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: or actually that it's probably thinking about that the wrong

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Speaker 2: way and being a bit cynical on Bain here. You're

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Speaker 2: probably quite happy they're holding onto it because I get

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Speaker 2: more now than they would have a months ago.

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Speaker 1: That's a great point. Australia's population twenty seven point three

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Speaker 1: million people. That is up four hundred and eighty four

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Speaker 1: thousand from year earlier.

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Speaker 2: It is a lot of people. Though these are Bureau

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Speaker 2: Statistics figures. For September twenty twenty four, there were six

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Speaker 2: hundred and seventeen nine hundred people arriving from overseas two

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty eight thousand departures. That's net about three

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighty thousand people added to our population from

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Speaker 2: overseas migration for the year to the end of twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty four. It's continuing a downward trend, so we had

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Speaker 2: that real peak in migration, but it's definitely coming off

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Speaker 2: in terms of natural increases, which is basically birth minus deaths.

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Speaker 2: That added about one hundred and four thousand people. Western

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Speaker 2: Australia is where you're getting the highest population growth two

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Speaker 2: and a half percent. Victorian Queensland is pretty good. Tasmanian

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Speaker 2: Northern Territory pretty flat. I was wondering, like, this is

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Speaker 2: a lot of people, this is like good growth. So I

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Speaker 2: went and had a look. Used my calculator.

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Speaker 1: Michael, what did you Yes, I was wondering what you

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Speaker 1: were doing. I was watching doing this What I'll do

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Speaker 1: that again?

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Speaker 2: So I was comparing Australia to Canada.

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Speaker 1: Okay, makes sense.

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Speaker 2: Figure that we're about similar our growth rates since nineteen

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Speaker 2: So nineteen sixty we had ten million people. We now

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Speaker 2: got twenty seven point three million people. That's a growth

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Speaker 2: rate of about one hundred and sixty five percent over

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Speaker 2: that period.

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Speaker 1: It checks out sixty years whatever.

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Speaker 2: Canada's now got forty million people, it's only got a

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Speaker 2: growth rate of one hundred and twenty percent.

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Speaker 1: Oh take that, Canada.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you can have you a manpu leaf and put

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Speaker 2: that where you want it. That's that's right.

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Speaker 1: Gold medal to US.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that it means anything, but obviously was

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Speaker 2: a relatively fast growth rate, at least compared to Canada.

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Speaker 1: Reckon Albo spoke to Mark Carney about that when they

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Speaker 1: add their their first call. Yeah, we're growing faster than

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Speaker 1: you anyway, International New Sean this story, right, this story.

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Speaker 1: I love this story. The US government has released tens

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Speaker 1: of thousands of pages about the assassination of former President

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Speaker 1: John F. Kennedy, and you've got to say, it's probably

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Speaker 1: a bit of a disappointment to the conspiracy theorists out there,

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Speaker 1: because the papers suggest that Lee Harvey Oswald did in

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Speaker 1: fact shoot the president.

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, surely not.

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Speaker 1: There was only what the Warren Commission and hundreds and

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Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of pages of documents, yeah, establishing that

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Speaker 1: very fact.

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Speaker 2: So the National Archives published the documents earlier this week

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Speaker 2: at the order of the US President Donald Trump. The

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Speaker 2: files apparently are mostly dense with information now most of

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Speaker 2: it experts already knew. What people liked was that there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of redactions in what's previously been released, and

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Speaker 2: that's kind of no longer been redacted. Some gems, according

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Speaker 2: to the Washington Post, lots about American assets is spied

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Speaker 2: on Fidel Castro Cuba, lots about Soviets feeding information about

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Speaker 2: the assassination to US professors abroad, lots of the inner

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Speaker 2: workings of the CIA sixty years ago. But at this

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Speaker 2: point not much about anyone but Lee Harvey oz shooting

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Speaker 2: JFK oh my gosh, what a story.

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Speaker 1: Though. In Nvidia, Sean will spend hundreds of billions of

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Speaker 1: dollars on chips and other electronics manufactured in the US

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Speaker 1: over the next four years, as the company tilts its

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Speaker 1: supply chain back from Asia back towards the US in

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Speaker 1: the face of Donald Trump's tariff threats.

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Speaker 2: The huge sending projection from the semiconductor group follows multi

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Speaker 2: billion dollar US investment plans announced by other technology companies,

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Speaker 2: including Apple. It's just examples to the impact of Trump's

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Speaker 2: America First trade policies.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Chief executive officer of Nvidia, Jensen Huang told The Financial

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Speaker 2: Times that Nvidia will procure over the course of the

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Speaker 2: next four years, probably half a trillion US dollars worth

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Speaker 2: of electronics. Several hundred billion of that will be from

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Speaker 2: the US. Huang said the company was now able to

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Speaker 2: manufacture its latest systems in the US, and he said

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Speaker 2: a growing competitive threat is coming from pa in China.

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Speaker 2: This week, at Nvidia's annual Developers Conference, Hung unveiled the

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Speaker 2: next generation of its AI chip, the VERA Reuben outlined.

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Speaker 2: He outlined plans to build clusters of millions of interconnected

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Speaker 2: chips in giant data centers that will require a vast

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Speaker 2: power supply.

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Speaker 1: One last one Sean It's a quick story. This one.

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Speaker 1: Los Angeles County jury has awarded fifty million US dollars

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Speaker 1: in damages to a man named Michael Garcia after a

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Speaker 1: scalding hot tea from Starbucks caused severe burns.

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Speaker 2: Yes, Garcia a Postmates driver. Basically need The driver suffered

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Speaker 2: third degree burns to his genital area when a loose

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Speaker 2: cup fell into his lap at a drive through in

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Speaker 2: February twenty twenty. Now, the jury found that Starbucks was

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent responsible for failing to secure the cup properly,

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Speaker 2: you know, the lid on top, not putting it on properly.

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Speaker 2: That led to permanent disfigurement.

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Speaker 1: Ouch.

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Speaker 2: Oh, this is according to the BBC. Starbucks does planned

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Speaker 2: to appeal. It says that the damages are excessive. Fifty

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Speaker 2: million dollars. Yeah, it's hard to know where to go

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Speaker 2: with this story.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm just going about it. I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to go anywhere. I think that's it. I think we'll

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Speaker 1: just wrap it up right there. Up next to the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Daily Interview, Callum Pickering from Indeed is

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Speaker 1: your guest today, Sean. It is coming up in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com Doodau, which is where you sign up

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Speaker 1: for our news letter as well out every week. Thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty first of March twenty twenty five. Make sure

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Speaker 1: you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. That was Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.