1 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed Q and A. Will we 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more. 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: I'm sure, Alma, the local share market tumbled almost three 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: percent yesterday. Is the conflict in Iran center? Oil prices soaring? 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: I wanted to try and get a handle on whether 6 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,439 Speaker 1: this is the start of a broader sell off, that 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: it's a temporary panic, what it all means for local investors. 8 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: Remember this is general information only and you should always 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: seek advice before investing. Doctor Shane Oliver is head of 10 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,599 Speaker 1: Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP. Shane, Welcome back 11 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed Q and A. 12 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 2: Thank you, Sean. 13 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: Great to be here. Were you surprised by the sell 14 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:43,080 Speaker 1: off yesterday? 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 2: No, The surprise for me was a week ago when 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: the Aussie market barely budged and actually made it to 17 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: a record high. And then we search around for reasons 18 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 2: as to why the markets were so complacent. I think 19 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: that they were somewhat relaxed by the concept that they 20 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: would be another taco or a tuna. Trump always chickens 21 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 2: out or Trump usually the Gates announcements. As the week's 22 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 2: gone by, the markets have increasingly come to a view 23 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 2: that well, looks like this is going to go on 24 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: for a while. The straightuple mers will stays shut for 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 2: a while. That means twenty percent hit to global oil 26 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: and gas supplies, and so that's being increasingly reflected in 27 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 2: oil prices and of course in share markets, and the 28 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 2: AUSSI share market is falling because of concerns about the 29 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 2: outlook for global growth, demand for exports obviously more demand 30 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 2: for gas, but maybe less demand for some of the 31 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 2: other things we export, and also the hit to consumer 32 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: spending from all this. 33 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 1: Okay, give us them one o one on why we 34 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: care about oil prices so much. Well, oil is something 35 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: like three percent of GDP. It's a little bit more 36 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: in other countries, and obviously it feels things like driving 37 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: around in your car unless you have an ev planes. 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: Oil is basically ingredient in kerosene or jet fuel trucks 39 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: that deliver goods through the economy to wool, worse and 40 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 1: coals and so on, so it still has a critical 41 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: input into the economy. Now, mind you, oil per unit 42 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: of GDP in Australia and other countries is about seventy 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: percent down from what it was back in the nineteen seventies. 44 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: So the ail intensity of GDP has gone down as 45 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: we've used fuel more efficiently, and as of course the 46 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: services sector of this economy has grown. But historically an 47 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: oil shop still means a supply shop to the economy. 48 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 1: Higher prices and that of course has had a negative 49 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: impact on growth, and that's what investors are worried about. Yesterday, 50 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: the price of oil went up about twenty five percent, 51 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: or close to twenty five percent in one go. That's extreme, 52 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: isn't it. 53 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 2: It is extreme, But mind you, we have seen similar 54 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: episodes in response to events in the Middle East. Obviously, 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,359 Speaker 2: if you go back to the nineteen seventy seventy three, 56 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: the first oil shock globally saw a fourfold rise in 57 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: world oll prices from three dollars a barrel to twelve 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,959 Speaker 2: dollars a barrel. The second oil shock in nineteen seventy nine, 59 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,399 Speaker 2: which was on the back of the Iranian Revolution, saw 60 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 2: a threefold increase from abound it was around twelve dollars 61 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: to thirty eight dollars a barrel. We saw a doubly 62 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 2: in oil prices when Iraq invaded q eight back in 63 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,079 Speaker 2: the latter part of nineteen ninety that was just a spike, 64 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 2: and we saw a mini spike around the Second Gulf 65 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 2: War with Iraq, which was of course in two thousand 66 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 2: and three. So we have seen these sorts of things before. 67 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: There was a spike back in twenty twenty two with 68 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 2: the Ukraine War, worries about supply of Russian oil and 69 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 2: so on. So you have seen these sort of things before. 70 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 2: But twenty five percenty one day is quite a big move. 71 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: But it does seem to reflect signs over the weekend 72 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 2: that the war is going on for longer than people 73 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 2: might have hoped a week ago. 74 00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: So how does this play out firstly an oil price 75 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 1: and then in terms of equities. 76 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: Well, for oil prices, I think it's a bit of 77 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 2: a guessing game. History does tell us that you can 78 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: have a big spike there, go back to the seventies 79 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: if you knock out twenty percent a world oil supply, 80 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,679 Speaker 2: which effectively is what happened has happened with the closure 81 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 2: of the Strait of Horn moves and mind you, it 82 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: was shut a week ago, but I think I think 83 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: oil traders were hoping it was going to be brief. 84 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: But the longer that goes on you take out twenty 85 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: percent of global oil and gas supply, then the more 86 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: that could reflect it in prices because traders start to think, well, 87 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 2: you know, we've got some reserves out there. Most countries 88 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 2: have stockpiles and inventories and so on. As those reserves 89 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 2: start to run down and the stockpiles run down, then 90 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 2: you get this flow on effect. And obviously that's the 91 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 2: sort of a time one. As the time goes by 92 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 2: and the straight remains closed, the price goes higher and higher. 93 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 2: If you go back to the seventies, three or four 94 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 2: fold increase. So far really seen close to a doubling 95 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 2: in all prices back at the start of the year, 96 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 2: I think we're around fifty six to fifty seven. We've 97 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 2: certainly got to that on Venezuela. We've now effectively seen 98 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 2: a doubling since then, but history tells us we could 99 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 2: see more. So it really depends on timing. If in 100 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 2: the next few days or weeks or whatever, Trump says, well, 101 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 2: the war's over, we've come to a deal, and then 102 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 2: the oil starts to flow through the straight offall moves again, 103 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 2: then the ol price will come back down. It'll just 104 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 2: be a brief spike and we'll go back to normal 105 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 2: sort of. Obviously there's a disruption there, So it really 106 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 2: depends on how long it goes for. I think that's 107 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:37,600 Speaker 2: the answer to that. 108 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: But the longer it goes for, the. 109 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 2: More people pay the higher prices, the more it disrupts 110 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 2: air travel and transport and all sorts of things, and 111 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,239 Speaker 2: the more it might disrupt Australia. We know that ninety 112 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 2: percent of our refined fuel comes from Asia. Twenty six 113 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: percent of that comes from Singapore, but fourteen percent of 114 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: it comes from China. China has already said that they're 115 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 2: going to restrict exports and we may be effected that. 116 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 2: So you not only get a price fike, but you 117 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 2: also get a supply issue was as well at the 118 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: same time. 119 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: Okay, so equity markets, I mean you have all along 120 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: said this year you expected equity markets to be higher 121 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 1: at the end of the year than they were at 122 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 1: the beginning. Though that wasn't going to be a straight 123 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,880 Speaker 1: line you have been talking about. You expected markets to 124 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: fall somewhat before they kind of made their way back 125 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: later in the year. So that's still your view, that's 126 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: still my view. 127 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 2: I think i'd used the number of around fifteen percent again, 128 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 2: which is somewhere between a correction around ten and a 129 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 2: bear market of twenty. And I did use the same 130 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 2: wording last year and we got that. We came down 131 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 2: fourteen percent into or around Liberation Day, the US was 132 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 2: nineteen percent, and other markets were somewhere in between. And 133 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: looks to me like we're going down that path again. 134 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: Ossie market, I think is down six and a half 135 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: seven percent from it's high, which was only Monday a 136 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 2: week ago. US markets down three and a half. I think, well, 137 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: potentially more by the time you get these numbers, because 138 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 2: we'll get more more numbers, you know, the numbers and changes. 139 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 2: The U share market continues to react, but Europe and 140 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 2: Japan are down quite a lot more than US, so I 141 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: think the scene that falls there of the ten percent, 142 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 2: So I think we're still on track for a further 143 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 2: fall in markets. And it looks like that what's gone 144 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 2: on in the Middle East is the trigger for that correction, 145 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: if you want to call it that. 146 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: Let's bring it back to the local economy. Then how 147 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: do you think the Reserve Bank will deal with this? Gee? 148 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: I mean that's a tough one. I wouldn't want to 149 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: be the Reserve Bank right now, because they got a 150 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: meeting coming up in a week's time, and they're very 151 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 2: concerned that inflation is above target already three point eight percent. 152 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 2: Headline trim mean is three point four percent. They can 153 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 2: make an argument we should look through this because we 154 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: can't do anything about the world war price. Therefore we 155 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 2: should focus on the underlying rate. But the problem they 156 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 2: face is that we are above target, and the longer 157 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 2: we stay above targets, particularly if the oil price petrol 158 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 2: prices stay where they are, then you get an addition 159 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 2: to inflation ofer point eight to one percent or so. Obviously, 160 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 2: if the oil price goes high, that addition gets bigger. 161 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 2: That takes you to four and a half maybe five 162 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: percent on inflation, and then we go through another year 163 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 2: started in twenty twenty two, twenty three, twenty four to 164 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 2: twenty five, twenty six above above target, and people eventually 165 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: start to say, well, I don't believe we're ever going 166 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 2: to get back to two and a half or two 167 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 2: to three. People demand four to five percent wage rises, 168 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 2: businesses put their prices up more and so and gets 169 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 2: built into inflation expectations. They're all the arguments for a 170 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 2: hike The counter arguments are, they'll be a hit to 171 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 2: household spending power, they'll be hit to global growth from this. Obviously, 172 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: the longer it goes on, the bigger the hit. And yeah, 173 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,319 Speaker 2: we could wake up. You know, the RBA hikes next Tuesday, 174 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: and then the day after Donald Trump says, Okay, we've 175 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 2: come to a deal with Iran. You know, we're going 176 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 2: to go back to normal and stop disrupting the stratigor moves, 177 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: and then the RBA would have made a mistake. So 178 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 2: I reckon it's a really really difficult one. But I 179 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 2: would say there's about a forty percent chance of a 180 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 2: hike next week. Then the risk probably gets a bit 181 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 2: higher by the time we get to May if oil 182 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: prices are still up. But it is a really really 183 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 2: hard call by the RBA in this context. 184 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: Okay, the elevated pitch for investors out there, don't panic, presumably. 185 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 2: It's don't panic turned down the noise. I mean, I've 186 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 2: seen so many of these things that they really are 187 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,679 Speaker 2: to predict when we hit the bottom. But the more 188 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: you as time goes by, the mark goes lower and lower, 189 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 2: you think I've got to get out here, and then 190 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 2: you get out and then you find that you end 191 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 2: up getting out close to the bottom, and by the 192 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 2: time you get back in again, we're back at a 193 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 2: record high that's gone all the way back. Because initially, 194 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,320 Speaker 2: as the market starts to recover, people don't believe in it. 195 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 2: It's only when you get to a record high you 196 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 2: want to get back in again. So trying to time this, 197 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: I reckon, will be really really hard. Try to tie 198 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: time Donald Trump is really really hard. I remember you 199 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 2: asked me a year ago and I'm I excited about 200 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:06,719 Speaker 2: this new world of Donald Trump and. 201 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: Tariffs, and I was kind of reticent. 202 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 2: But the thing that kissed me a little bit reticent 203 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 2: is trying to try to time and predict Trump is 204 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 2: really really hard. And that's going to make trying to 205 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 2: time and predict markets really really hard in this environment. 206 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: Doesn't that make your job a little bit more exciting? Though? 207 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 1: Shame because you mean, you have done this for a 208 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: long time and suddenly you get a Trump factor, and yeah, 209 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 1: you know, kind of all a little bit new. 210 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 2: It is a little bit new, But I guess on 211 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,320 Speaker 2: the one hand, it is more exciting. There's a lot 212 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 2: more to talk about now than there used to be. 213 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 2: Saying to Biden that much happened, things happening elsewhere, but 214 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: not so much under his announcements. 215 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 1: Is this year. 216 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: You know, we've had what was at Nigeria initially, and 217 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 2: we dismissed that one, forgot about that one. Then there 218 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 2: was Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs all over the place. If we 219 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: were doing this two weeks ago, we might be talking 220 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,720 Speaker 2: about tariffs, and now we're in Iran and I reckon 221 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 2: the list will go on and on, so we'd be 222 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 2: jumping around all over the place. On the one hand, 223 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 2: that's exciting, and you can't I'd love to say turn 224 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 2: down the noise and totally ignorous. But for people like 225 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 2: me and for people like you who are trying to 226 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 2: get other people to turn down the noise, perhaps it 227 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 2: is hard to ignore because you've got to get your 228 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 2: mind around it. And I guess there is a degree 229 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,839 Speaker 2: of excitement in that, even though I did. At the 230 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 2: back of my mind, I worry what sort of damage 231 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 2: is he causing to the global economy with all these 232 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 2: gyrations and the uncertainty it's causing. Is there going to 233 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 2: be a long term price for all of this? That 234 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 2: worries me a little bit. I can understand his reasoning 235 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 2: in Iran to some degree. He's got different reasoning every day. 236 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 2: But I can understand why they want to stop Iran 237 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: from threatening other countries, getting nuclear weapons and supporting terrorists. 238 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 2: That's understandable. But the dropping and changing, the different explanations, 239 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 2: all of those things do make we worry whether there'll 240 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 2: be a long term price to pay for this. 241 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: But anyway, we'll see, we'll see. Shane, thanks for talking 242 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 1: to Fear and Greed. Thanks Sean, take care. That's doctor 243 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: Shane Oliver, ahead of Investment Strategy and Chief Economists at AMP. 244 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: Remember this is general information only and you should always 245 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 1: secdfars for investing. I'm Seanielmer and this is Fear and Greed, 246 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 1: Q and DA