WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 3 July 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:05.000 From the sky New Center. This is Paul Murray Live. 0:00:06.720 --> 0:00:09.079 Happy Wednesday. All lots to get to tonight. Let's not 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:09.559 muck around. 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.280 I need the full hour with you now. 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:14.120 Before I get to the news, the politics, the stuff 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:15.920 that I know you here for the name meet. 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:18.680 Congratulations to a dear friend of ours, Nicholas Race. 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.600 Of course, long time part of what we've done here 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:23.760 for years and years and years. As you know, we've 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:26.279 agreed on every single issue, and you've cheered on every 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:29.400 opinion he's ever had. But no, seriously, he's a good guy. 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:31.880 He's been a mate for a very long time. I 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.080 admire anyone who's willing to come in here and have 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:36.479 the debate. But the reason we open the show tonight 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:38.000 is Nicholas is now. 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.040 The Lord Mayor of Melbourne. 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:43.120 He ascended to the position in a ceremony that took 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:47.440 place yesterday and this boy is now very proud as 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.720 the leader of a great city and a man who 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:51.200 I think will do great things. 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:52.760 So congratulations to him. 0:00:52.960 --> 0:00:54.960 He's saying, among other things, he wants to get on 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:59.400 top of safety in the city and also to literally 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:00.760 at times clean it up. 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:03.880 Here is what the Paul Murray Live. 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:07.959 Candidate says now that he is the mayor of Melbourne. 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:12.600 Good on you, Nicholas. It's an extraordinary honor. It's a privilege. 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:17.480 You know, I mentioned I came to Melbourne from another country. 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:23.360 I came here as a kid and lived my life here, 0:01:23.400 --> 0:01:26.520 and my Melbourne story has been a story about a family, 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:30.400 working hard, life getting better. And now to be bringing 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:34.920 my family up here in the city of Melbourne and 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:39.280 to be serving here at town Hall, it's the absolutely 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.160 honor and privilege. 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:42.679 Of my life. Now. 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:44.160 It's one thing for those of us who talk about 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.200 politics all the time. It's another things for people like 0:01:46.280 --> 0:01:50.040 Nicholas who've worked behind the scenes in service of premiers, 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:51.800 of labor leaders. 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:53.160 And of course of prime ministers. 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.640 But when it is you that history is calling upon, 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.600 you can see that the enormity of it is well 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.360 and truly dawning on him. And one more time, congratulations 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:02.080 to you, Nicholas. 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.880 Look, I think community safety and city cleanliness is going 0:02:06.920 --> 0:02:09.239 to be at the top of the agenda. I think 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:11.960 Melbourne is a safe city, but we can do better 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.360 and I think the city also can do better in 0:02:15.440 --> 0:02:16.359 terms of cleanliness. 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.520 Now, as you know, we've got a deal which is 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:21.519 all Paul Murray Loo viewers do not have to pay 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:26.600 parking fines anywhere in Melbourne. Oh no, we haven't formally 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.840 got that deal yet, but it's on its way never. 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:32.919 Now. 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.280 As you know, Australians are absolute We talked about this 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:37.600 last night, that the joints headed in the wrong direction. 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:39.880 Lots of different reasons, but principally of course, about the 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:42.360 government's failure when it comes to cost of living. To 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.360 give you an idea of where this is. From the 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.720 start of the Urbanese government, only thirty percent of people 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:48.639 think we're in the right place. 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:50.680 That's way down. The number of people who. 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.120 Are unsure has basically halved, and the result is twenty 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:56.680 seven percent. More than a quarter of people have joined 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:58.760 those of us who believe that this government was going 0:02:58.760 --> 0:02:59.720 to take us in the wrong direction. 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:01.600 It's confirmed fifty four percent of. 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:06.000 Australians believing that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Now, 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.200 I believe that there are plenty of examples of it 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:10.280 and indices of it each and every day, each and 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.120 every night. The great golf between what was promised and 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:15.400 what the reality is, the great golf between what they 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.920 claim is their priority and the way that they actually behave. 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.720 But what shifted people in the past couple of weeks 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:24.840 since the last time this poll was taken and it 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.960 was just below fifty percent. The five point jump in 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:31.680 just one pole, Well, it's the reality of the economy 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.640 that this Prime Minister, this Treasurer and this Labor Party 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:35.720 is in charge of. 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:37.280 Now. 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.680 To go into a recession, you need to have negative 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:42.600 economic growth for two consecutive quarters. 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:43.400 That's six months. 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:45.920 To give you an idea of just how close we 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:49.560 are to starting to go backwards. The Australian economy at 0:03:49.680 --> 0:03:53.440 last check is growing zero point one percent. 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:55.640 That's it. 0:03:55.640 --> 0:03:59.920 It is technically idling with a slight turn of the tires, 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.680 but that's it. Nothing's really going on. In terms of 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:05.360 the inflation rate, it needs to be between two and 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:08.000 three percent for the Reserve Bank to do anything. In May, 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.120 one of the three months that will be counted towards, 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.960 the inflation rate over the quarter is four percent. It's 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:17.200 been going back up. The concern is that with all 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:21.320 of this the Reserve Bank will yet again put up 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:24.200 interest rates. This matters so desperately for the two thirds 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:25.880 of Australia that is paying off a house. They live 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:27.760 in or are paying off a house that is an 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.240 investment property. I understand for those people who've got money 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.960 in the bank and savings, higher interstrates is good. There 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:35.279 are also flow ons to things like credit cards. So 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:38.600 for the majority of Australians, they do not like the 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.400 news that the rates are going up, and of course 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:45.720 they have gone up thirteen times since May twenty twenty two. 0:04:46.560 --> 0:04:51.600 Thirteen sorry, twelve of the thirteen under this government, twelve 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:53.560 of the thirteen. If the Prime Minister, of course tries 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:57.640 to pretend it's everyone's problem, please, if one interistrate reason, 0:04:57.920 --> 0:05:00.160 one interstrate rise in May of twenty twenty two was 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:01.720 the reason to change the government, what do we say 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:06.240 after thirteen? We'll get ready now for the magical fourteenth 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.560 to drop. Because in the meeting that they had just 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.680 a couple of weeks ago, the Reserve Bank didn't even 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:14.520 talk about cutting it and they barely had to be 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:18.480 talked out and just talked out of actually raising interest rates. 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.960 The reality when it comes to inflation being at four 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.640 percent or higher and to get it down to between 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:29.480 two and three percent means people like John Kierre, writing 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:32.680 in the Financial Review says not one, but multiple multiple 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.880 interest rate rises are on their way. Now you know 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.120 this picture, and this is why so many people are 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.919 feeling right on the edge, and I mean right. 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:42.240 On the edge. 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:45.200 Well, one of the pieces of data that they look 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:48.240 at to work out whether the economy overall is slowing, 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.800 whether there is less spending going on inside and in 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:54.120 part that are the things that can lead into inflation, 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.120 is what's happening at the shops. Well, today we got 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.039 from the same people who are telling us inflation is 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.159 going up, that being the Reserve Bank, and that the 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:07.800 economy is just barely existing, let alone actually moving forward. Well, 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.000 the end of year's sales are now sort of in 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:12.839 the review mirror, and we are now starting to see 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.320 that there was actually an uptick and the number of 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.160 people who were buying things from the shops. Now, all 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:22.440 of this matters because if the spending keeps going, then 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.760 the people who've got the money are really putting the 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:26.240 pressure on the people who don't have the money who 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.760 are paying off their houses. The Reserve Bank looks at 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:33.120 these changes like this one today about all the different 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.920 sectors we're spending is going up, and they put that 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.800 into the basket of the case for the rise inflation 0:06:38.920 --> 0:06:41.760 is already there, and now this gets added to it. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.280 As you can see, these are ever so slight, but 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:48.880 still more spending on food, more spending on household goods, 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:52.680 more spending on clothing, less spending in department stores, less 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:53.840 spending in cafes. 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:57.040 But overall it went up. And that means we. 0:06:57.080 --> 0:06:59.719 Start looking down the barrel of an almost inevitability I 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:03.120 hope not, I hope not, but an almost inevitability of 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:05.919 another interest rate rise. And with fifty four percent of 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:08.400 the country knowing that the government's taken us in the 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:12.520 wrong direction, imagine what that number becomes when there's yet 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:15.280 another interest rate rise, one that yet again the government 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.080 will try to blame on anyone else, but of course 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:19.800 will be of their making. The promise was that all 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.880 of the decisions that were made in the federal budget 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:25.000 were not going to affect inflation. We're not going to 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:28.760 push the Reserve Bank into raising interest rates again tonight. 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:31.360 It's hard to find anyone who thinks that it won't 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:34.680 result in an interest rate rise, much sooner rather than later, 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.640 let alone multiples. Hence why Peter Dutton asks the direct 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:42.480 question that the majority of Australians are worried about. 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:47.280 After two years of the Albanezi government decisions driving up inflation. 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.960 The new loan variable interest rate is six point three percent, 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.400 costing Australian found was an extra twenty one. 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:55.600 Thousand dollars in after tax dollars. 0:07:56.000 --> 0:07:58.040 Why WoT the Prime Minister admit that his three hundred 0:07:58.040 --> 0:08:01.840 and fifteen billion dollar spending spree is driving homegrown inflation 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:05.040 and threatening further interest rate increases into the future. 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:07.240 Will it surprise you? 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:09.640 The de man who was Chris Kenny and Ray Hadley 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:13.400 quite correctly point out, is never responsible for anything, doesn't 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:16.400 answer a direct question that is the single biggest concern 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:18.560 in Australia, no matter where you live. 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.640 I thank the Leader of the Opposition for his question, 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:27.120 which goes to a comparison of where the Australian economy 0:08:27.320 --> 0:08:30.960 was in twenty twenty two and where it is now. 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:32.800 Extraordinary. 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:36.560 Remember, inflation was starting to come down, but it was 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.840 still too high, meaning that things were costing more than 0:08:39.880 --> 0:08:41.640 they did twelve months ago, and of course they were 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:43.760 costing more than twelve months before that. And that's the 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:47.760 whole story of the economy under the Albanese government. Pretending 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:49.640 that crumbs off the table two little too late tax 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.079 cuts magically saves everything. Well, how many times can I 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:54.120 show you the proof? Because you know it in your heart, 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.200 they're not able to pull off the jedimind trick. The 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.760 BS only works so far. Normal people are frightened about 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:01.880 the of the economy right now, and they are frightened 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:03.800 of the people who are now in charge of it. 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.280 They can blame everyone else, but we know it is them. 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:08.840 They are the ones who turn around them whenever anything 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.199 is mildly okay, it's all their responsibility. Every job that's 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:15.400 ever crowded in the country, they're directly linked to well, 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:17.640 they of course are directly linked to inflation, and therefore, 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:21.080 in my view, they're directly linked to interest rates. Australians 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:22.760 know it, they're starting to say it to the pollsters, 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:25.960 and it will haunt this government if there is at 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:30.600 least one and just one further interest rate rise. Meantime, 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:34.160 where people are trying to keep the head above water. 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.040 For many people is credit cards, and as you know, 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:40.520 that is just a fool's game. Now, I, like many people, 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:42.439 when I got one too young, you ring it up 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:44.839 and then thankfully you get a tax return. You're able 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:46.200 to push it down a little bit and then you 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.480 ring it up again and it is just a world 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:53.040 of pain. So we learned today via The Australian about 0:09:53.080 --> 0:09:55.560 the amount of debt and it's now dangerous levels of 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:58.000 debt that are around when it comes to credit cards. 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:03.360 How's this half eight billion, repeat five hundred million dollars 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.360 a painful credit card debt has been added to Australian 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:10.719 finances in just six months. Why cost of living? If 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:12.240 you don't have money in the bank, and we've told 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.679 you before about nine million people have less than one 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:16.400 thousand dollars in the bank, most of that is about 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.360 two hundred and fifty dollars. Well, you have to find 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.160 some way to pay for things, so you apply for it, 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:23.880 you get a credit card, and we collectively have a 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:26.400 bill that is growing by the minute. The latest Reserve 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.960 Bank credit card figure show credit card balances occurring interests 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:32.840 of jumps from eighteen point one billion dollars now eighteen 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:36.160 point five about eighty point six billion dollars, and that 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.559 since November of twenty twenty three, reversing a long running 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:43.960 trend where Australians had been able to have their debts 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:47.320 over the past twelve years. But now, of course they supercharge. 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.479 People will blame the government because the government is involved, 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.920 the government is responsible, and the government makes decisions that 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:57.240 make it worse just because they try to come up 0:10:57.400 --> 0:11:00.760 with a way of accounting that makes them look good overall. 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:02.800 You know, in your life, the per cap at a 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:05.920 recession with the crushing amount of debt that costs more 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:09.000 because of the cost of funding that debt or paying 0:11:09.000 --> 0:11:10.640 it off, be at your home, your credit card, or 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:11.360 any other loan. 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:12.800 Enough. 0:11:14.080 --> 0:11:16.560 Now, remember they say, oh, well, let's compare well again, 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:19.360 let's compare Australia with places like the United Kingdom and 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.440 the United States, which are planning to get rid of 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:25.679 their current governments UK first, most likely US later in 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:29.240 the year. Their inflation rate is coas to half of 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.240 what we currently are. So if that's good enough to 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:34.400 dune those governments may be so for this one when 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:40.760 their time comes, hopefully sooner rather than later. Now, normally, 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:43.640 you know, I sort of end the overall discussion at 0:11:43.679 --> 0:11:45.480 the start of the show with something about the United States. 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:47.640 But what is happening right now in and around Joe 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:50.400 Biden deserves a little more time and a little more prominence. 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.120 Believe me, you have not heard what you are about 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.079 to hear here, because this is how I'm spending my day, 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.280 on top of everything else, trying to watch the little 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:03.040 bits of data. Now, as you know, Biden absolutely blew 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.360 up his political career at that debate, which is now 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:08.840 a week in the rearview mirror. But how many people 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:11.240 saw it, how many people won't forget it, And this 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:12.880 is the guy who's trying to reapply for the job 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:16.200 for another four years. It's unbelievable. The contest of courses 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.600 between this guy who we were told was bulletproof and 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:21.640 strong versus this guy who, no matter how many times 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:23.720 he gets hit, no matter what happens to him, from 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.959 court rooms to Congress and all the rest of it, 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.920 he's powering on. Now, as you know, there is the 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.880 national vote, and lots of polls will talk about national votes. 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:35.640 That doesn't matter in the. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:39.040 Same way that Australia has safe seats and marginal seats. 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:40.839 You need to think about that in terms of the 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:43.520 different states. Now, have a look at this map. These 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.200 are what I referred to as the swing states. That's 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.160 the brown there. Now those states are starting at the 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:55.840 top and moving in a clockwise direction, it's Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.120 and the bottom right then across to Arizona and Nevada. 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:03.040 Right now now, with no indication about who's going to 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.240 win those seats, you need two hundred and seventy to 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:10.400 win the electoral College Republicans Trump to thirty five, Democrats 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.240 Biden to twenty six. So these are the states that 0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:19.480 make the decisions well after the debate. There are people who, 0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:23.200 of course are doing plenty behind the scenes that they 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.160 are not willing to say publicly, and that of course 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:26.800 is to push Biden out of the way. 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:27.679 Now. 0:13:27.720 --> 0:13:28.920 Of course they want to push him out of the 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.920 way because they believe that he cannot win the election. 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.400 The Biden camp, however, of course, is doing everything they can, 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:40.319 including discussing moving up the formal nomination not from the 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.960 end of August where the convention will take place, but 0:13:43.000 --> 0:13:46.400 to do it over zoom in maybe the next couple 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.600 of weeks. So they're trying to fortify and lock themselves 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:53.720 in well, just like when a party is trying to 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:56.679 move against a prime minister. In Australia, they talk about 0:13:56.679 --> 0:14:00.400 polls and internal polls, and there was an attempt from 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:02.840 someone inside Biden world to suggest, oh, there's a whole 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.160 bunch of secret inside polls that show we haven't lost 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:08.079 any support since the debate. 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:10.319 But the reality. 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:14.000 Is that they were losing in all of those swing 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:17.280 states or most of those swing states. So their argument 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:20.080 is trust us, we're losing, but not as badly as 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:24.720 you think. That was in Puck, which is an inside 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:29.120 political newsletter service, but they had the exclusive about the 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.880 polling meantime, So polling has come in a place where 0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:36.160 the Democrats won by a big margin last time, and 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:38.680 that's the state of New Hampshire that is now apparently 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:43.320 on the table as a potential swing state. So now 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:47.280 according to the inside polling which is being leaked by 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:49.280 the Biden campaign on one side to say they're not 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.240 going backwards, but clearly if you read it, shows they're 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:55.960 still losing. Plus some new polling that makes some things 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.560 even more competitive than anyone thinks. The list of swing 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:05.680 states now is, let's go clockwork again, Wisconsin, Michigan. Then 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.480 right up in the top right hand corner is New Hampshire. 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:13.160 Then it's down to Pennsylvania Virginia, which is the state 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.880 basically that surrounds Washington, DC. Lots of public servant types there. 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.080 Then the further you get out from DC, you get 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.440 into Maga Country, then into Georgia, then into Arizona, than 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.680 into Nevada. Again, Trump's number stays at two hundred and 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:30.360 thirty five, but Biden's number goes from two hundred and 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.240 twenty six down to two nine. You see what's happening here. 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:37.720 So let's imagine all of the polls that currently exist 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:40.120 where Trump is in front are all true, and he 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.640 wins each and every one of those states. He has 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.360 to get to two hundred and seventy, but the numbers 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.640 are even bigger than the margin that he had in 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:54.040 twenty and sixteen. Now, he would win New Hampshire, he 0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:59.120 would win Virginia, sorry, he would win Pennsylvania. He would 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.680 win Georgia, he would win Arizona, he would win Nevada. 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:07.400 He would also win Michigan. So even if he ran 0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.080 that full table, he's well and truly over and he's 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:12.840 still got three states to spare that currently a lion 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:19.480 ball Minnesota, a stronghold of the Blue team, Wisconsin, which 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.640 Biden won last time, and again Virginia. All of this 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:27.160 very damn close. And all of this is to try 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.520 to explain what you've seen with your own eyes. Biden 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:34.240 cannot continue as the candidate, let alone the president. But 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.960 because of course all of the people around Biden would 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:39.920 all lose their jobs if he gave up the presidency, well, 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.800 all of those people are now trying to do everything 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.280 they can to rig the system to make sure that 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:46.400 he's locked in, and they have no other option than 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:50.200 to go over the cliff Fillmoran Luiz with him. So 0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:53.560 just like a prime minister, so I say, like Malcolm Turbule, 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:55.400 who thinks that the way that he can show how 0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:58.120 strong he is, which is to call an empty seat chair, 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.200 That of course exposed how many people in the room 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:03.200 are willing to vote against him. And it was the 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:04.960 beginning of the inn and he was gone within. 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:05.880 A few days. 0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.359 So let me explain again from the media that have 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:11.840 told us this bloke's okay, nothing to see here. Trump's 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:13.959 the big problem. They're looking at the polls and this 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.560 is what they say about what's happening, both in front 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:18.840 and behind the Saints. 0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.359 I mean, these numbers are atrocious for Joe Biden. 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:23.600 That's the only way you can put. 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:25.199 It, And you know, I just think you have to 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.760 take back a step and look at where we were 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.240 four years ago. At this point, Joe Biden was leading 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.960 Donald Trump by nine points. This is just a completely 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:36.520 different race, one in which Donald Trump has led basically continuously, 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:38.280 at least during twenty twenty four. 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:39.840 When I look at polls like this and you. 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:41.639 See the first call for Joe Biden to get out 0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:43.440 of the race from a member of Congress on the 0:17:43.480 --> 0:17:46.440 Democratic side, I don't think polling like this will stop 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:48.879 those calls. I would only expect them to get louder. 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.760 So, just locking an Australian system, there might be lots 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:54.240 of people who want to dump the Prime minister, but 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:55.840 somebody's going to be willing to put the hand up 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:59.400 to do it. Now, the most likely, the most obvious, 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:03.600 would be Biden's Vice president, Kamala Harris. Now, Kamala Harris, 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:05.600 on lots of polling for a long period of time, 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:09.000 has been more unpopular than Joe Biden. So the assumption 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:12.000 being that you have to somehow jump over Kamala Harris 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:16.760 and find somebody else. But the reason why Kamala Harris 0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.200 would be the number one draft pick of the post 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.159 Biden era is because every dollar that has been raised 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.680 for Joe Biden has also been raised for Kamala Harris. 0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:29.720 And under the law, the two hundred and forty million 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.240 dollars which has already been raised by the Biden campaign 0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:37.400 automatically would flow to the Harris campaign. But again, under 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.680 those laws, the two hundred and forty million dollars would 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:42.480 not be able to be moved anywhere else. 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:44.919 A quarter of a b billion. 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:48.440 Dollars can't go to another candidate. It's stuck in Biden 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:52.639 or Harris. Which brings this to a very important person, 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.640 a man by the name of James Clyburn. James Clyburn 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:00.160 is a legendary figure of the civil rights movement. I'm 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.880 on South Carolina, and he's a man who, when he 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:07.080 endorses you, is able to move the entire political machinery, 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:11.320 which has been quite influential over African Americans, to the 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:16.160 candidate that he wants. Now, remember when Biden was first 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:18.399 looking week and first looking like the guy who wouldn't 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.120 even get the Democratic nomination in twenty and twenty, after 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:26.919 he got belted in Iowa, destroyed in New Hampshire, it 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:29.960 was James Clyburn who decided to put his effort and 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:34.080 his support behind Joe Biden. That meant that the southern 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:37.159 state of South Carolina voted for Joe Biden, and all 0:19:37.240 --> 0:19:39.720 of the southern states that followed voted for Joe Biden. 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:42.480 He became the nominee, and that of course set him 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:46.360 on a path towards the presidency. What's he saying about 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:53.000 anything but Biden or Harris? No muss, he says. If 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:56.600 it ain't Joe, it's definitely Carmala. 0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:01.480