1 00:00:05,790 --> 00:00:08,010 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:08,010 --> 00:00:10,679 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. The local share market hit a record high earlier 3 00:00:10,679 --> 00:00:14,519 Sean Aylmer: in the week with the S&P/ASX 200 pushing beyond 8, 000 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,399 Sean Aylmer: points for the first time. It's been quite a ride, 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:21,210 Sean Aylmer: particularly since late October, with the boss up 18% since 6 00:00:21,210 --> 00:00:24,840 Sean Aylmer: then. So why did it reach that milestone? What next? 7 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,450 Sean Aylmer: There's no one better to answer those questions than Matthew 8 00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:30,899 Sean Aylmer: Kidman, principal at Centennial Asset Management. Matthew, welcome back to 9 00:00:30,900 --> 00:00:31,590 Sean Aylmer: Fear and Greed. 10 00:00:31,860 --> 00:00:32,909 Matthew Kidman: Thanks, Sean. How are you? 11 00:00:33,659 --> 00:00:35,638 Sean Aylmer: Very well, thank you. Now, we have actually discussed this 12 00:00:35,639 --> 00:00:40,050 Sean Aylmer: before, and the market really took off around the New 13 00:00:40,050 --> 00:00:42,630 Sean Aylmer: Year period, then it was trading sideways, and then it's 14 00:00:42,630 --> 00:00:45,509 Sean Aylmer: picked up again. So tell me, in more recent times, 15 00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:47,670 Sean Aylmer: what is it that's been driving the market to this 8, 16 00:00:47,790 --> 00:00:48,840 Sean Aylmer: 000 plus level? 17 00:00:49,348 --> 00:00:51,269 Matthew Kidman: Yeah. Well, in the first instance, it was everyone got 18 00:00:51,269 --> 00:00:54,299 Matthew Kidman: too pessimistic, that old chestnut where people just get too 19 00:00:54,300 --> 00:00:57,780 Matthew Kidman: down and too pessimistic about the outlook. More recently, as 20 00:00:57,780 --> 00:00:59,970 Matthew Kidman: you said, it bounced, it went sideways. Now, it's started 21 00:00:59,970 --> 00:01:03,510 Matthew Kidman: to go again, and you would think that the local conditions 22 00:01:03,510 --> 00:01:07,529 Matthew Kidman: are not helping. The economy is slowing. Every company will 23 00:01:07,530 --> 00:01:10,799 Matthew Kidman: tell you that there's been a noticeable slowdown in the 24 00:01:10,799 --> 00:01:14,850 Matthew Kidman: consumer since about Easter. There's been another step down, so 25 00:01:14,850 --> 00:01:16,770 Matthew Kidman: we'll wait to see that in the economic numbers. As 26 00:01:16,770 --> 00:01:19,530 Matthew Kidman: you know, the general economic number has been very flat, 27 00:01:19,830 --> 00:01:24,300 Matthew Kidman: just holding in there, teetering on a recession over the 28 00:01:24,300 --> 00:01:27,569 Matthew Kidman: next 12 months, I would think. And another thing that's 29 00:01:27,569 --> 00:01:29,759 Matthew Kidman: not good for the market is the Reserve Bank's kind 30 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,670 Matthew Kidman: of swayed back to maybe another interest rate hike, rather 31 00:01:32,670 --> 00:01:35,010 Matthew Kidman: than a cut, which we're expecting a little while ago. 32 00:01:35,550 --> 00:01:38,819 Matthew Kidman: So it's set up for not doing well. But what has 33 00:01:38,819 --> 00:01:42,690 Matthew Kidman: happened and what's obvious is the US market is probably 34 00:01:42,690 --> 00:01:45,539 Matthew Kidman: six to eight months ahead of us, and the Federal 35 00:01:45,539 --> 00:01:48,810 Matthew Kidman: Reserve now has basically told the market it's locking in 36 00:01:48,870 --> 00:01:53,130 Matthew Kidman: a cut probably in September. And most market analysts have 37 00:01:53,130 --> 00:01:56,309 Matthew Kidman: got interest rate cuts probably for the next 12 months, 38 00:01:56,309 --> 00:01:59,880 Matthew Kidman: somewhere between a hundred and 125 basis points. And the 39 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:02,970 Matthew Kidman: market likes that backdrop, and Australia's being carried along. 40 00:02:04,260 --> 00:02:07,980 Sean Aylmer: It's a fickle market, Matthew, because when those first comments 41 00:02:07,980 --> 00:02:10,500 Sean Aylmer: came out last week from Jerome Powell, the market actually 42 00:02:10,500 --> 00:02:12,570 Sean Aylmer: fell, because all of a sudden, there's, " Oh, hold on, 43 00:02:12,570 --> 00:02:15,570 Sean Aylmer: he wants to cut rates. Maybe there's a recession in 44 00:02:15,570 --> 00:02:18,300 Sean Aylmer: the future." And so, it dropped and then, it's risen 45 00:02:18,300 --> 00:02:20,909 Sean Aylmer: again. How do you see through all the noise? How 46 00:02:20,910 --> 00:02:23,580 Sean Aylmer: do you actually work out and determine what is actually happening? 47 00:02:23,910 --> 00:02:26,940 Matthew Kidman: Yeah, it's hard, because as you know, that interest rates have 48 00:02:26,940 --> 00:02:30,840 Matthew Kidman: a lag effect. It takes a while before higher rates 49 00:02:30,900 --> 00:02:34,949 Matthew Kidman: actually impact the economy, and it's been that way this 50 00:02:34,950 --> 00:02:37,679 Matthew Kidman: time very clearly. In fact, the lag's probably been 12 51 00:02:37,679 --> 00:02:40,919 Matthew Kidman: months, rather than the usual six to nine months. So 52 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:44,160 Matthew Kidman: even harder to predict. And we don't know for certain. 53 00:02:44,370 --> 00:02:47,010 Matthew Kidman: That's what makes markets, we don't actually know what's in 54 00:02:47,010 --> 00:02:50,220 Matthew Kidman: front of us. But the market will try and predict 55 00:02:50,220 --> 00:02:52,290 Matthew Kidman: 12 months ahead, and even as I said, we're going through 56 00:02:52,410 --> 00:02:55,380 Matthew Kidman: a slowdown period, unless we fall off the edge of 57 00:02:55,380 --> 00:02:57,450 Matthew Kidman: a cliff and it's a nasty recession, I think the 58 00:02:57,450 --> 00:03:00,960 Matthew Kidman: markets globally will look through and say, well, we're getting 59 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,110 Matthew Kidman: rate cuts. That means 12 months, 24 months down the 60 00:03:04,110 --> 00:03:08,549 Matthew Kidman: track, economies will be growing stronger again. And so, let's 61 00:03:08,550 --> 00:03:12,539 Matthew Kidman: take off the table a bad recession. We might get 62 00:03:12,540 --> 00:03:15,450 Matthew Kidman: something mild, flat to nothing growth, or maybe a slight 63 00:03:15,450 --> 00:03:18,419 Matthew Kidman: recession, that's good enough for this market to keep going higher. 64 00:03:19,169 --> 00:03:22,500 Sean Aylmer: In terms of investing then, people keep saying it's a 65 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:25,020 Sean Aylmer: stock picker's market. It's probably always a stock picker's market, 66 00:03:25,020 --> 00:03:28,290 Sean Aylmer: but when you've got these big macro factors carrying the 67 00:03:28,290 --> 00:03:32,580 Sean Aylmer: market one way or another, it does actually question, when 68 00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:34,050 Sean Aylmer: does it come back to fundamentals? 69 00:03:34,559 --> 00:03:38,730 Matthew Kidman: Yeah, exciting stuff because markets are going higher, but to 70 00:03:38,730 --> 00:03:42,660 Matthew Kidman: outperform, which we're all trying to do, it's very difficult 71 00:03:42,660 --> 00:03:47,190 Matthew Kidman: to work out. Because previously, when interest rates or inflation 72 00:03:47,190 --> 00:03:49,139 Matthew Kidman: reached peak and everyone started to talk about interest rates 73 00:03:49,139 --> 00:03:52,799 Matthew Kidman: coming down, where did they buy? They bought those structural growth stories. 74 00:03:52,799 --> 00:03:54,960 Matthew Kidman: In the US, it was the Magnificent Seven, that grow 75 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,170 Matthew Kidman: regardless in lower interest rates, means that you change your 76 00:03:58,170 --> 00:04:02,460 Matthew Kidman: discount rate, which means that stocks are worth more. And 77 00:04:02,460 --> 00:04:05,639 Matthew Kidman: so, that worked, but what we saw last week is, 78 00:04:05,639 --> 00:04:09,630 Matthew Kidman: with these lower inflation figures, was a massive switch over 79 00:04:09,630 --> 00:04:12,870 Matthew Kidman: a couple of days out of the NASDAQ stocks high 80 00:04:12,870 --> 00:04:16,230 Matthew Kidman: growth into what they've got is the small cap index, 81 00:04:16,230 --> 00:04:19,890 Matthew Kidman: the Russell 2000. Now, I don't know if that's sustainable, 82 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,170 Matthew Kidman: a couple of days doesn't mean a trend is in 83 00:04:22,170 --> 00:04:25,500 Matthew Kidman: place, but it is something we've got to have a look 84 00:04:25,500 --> 00:04:29,128 Matthew Kidman: at and work out what grows or what performs into 85 00:04:29,129 --> 00:04:31,500 Matthew Kidman: the future. And it's not easy. And in Australia, we 86 00:04:31,500 --> 00:04:35,550 Matthew Kidman: don't have the Magnificent Seven, so it's even murkier here 87 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,440 Matthew Kidman: and you've got to pick your way through it. My 88 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,620 Matthew Kidman: personal view is, if we believe rates are coming down, and 89 00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:44,759 Matthew Kidman: I'm one who believes that the economists have fundamentally got 90 00:04:44,759 --> 00:04:46,410 Matthew Kidman: it wrong, we're going to get an interest rate cut 91 00:04:46,469 --> 00:04:49,080 Matthew Kidman: in Australia by the end of the year sometime. It won't be before 92 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,900 Matthew Kidman: September, it might be November, December, depending on when the 93 00:04:51,900 --> 00:04:55,080 Matthew Kidman: meeting's fall, because the economy has slowed. And if we 94 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,479 Matthew Kidman: get any relief on inflation between now and then, we'll 95 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,700 Matthew Kidman: get a cut. And the Reserve Bank is probably seeing 96 00:04:59,700 --> 00:05:02,400 Matthew Kidman: numbers now that are pretty ordinary from an economic point 97 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,750 Matthew Kidman: of view, including unemployment gradually edging up. So we've got 98 00:05:06,750 --> 00:05:09,089 Matthew Kidman: to work our way through. My view is that you 99 00:05:09,089 --> 00:05:12,089 Matthew Kidman: don't go cyclical yet. You stay with the structural growth stories, 100 00:05:12,089 --> 00:05:14,940 Matthew Kidman: because the economy over the next six months is not 101 00:05:14,940 --> 00:05:18,509 Matthew Kidman: going to help you. And cyclical stocks that depend on 102 00:05:18,509 --> 00:05:22,139 Matthew Kidman: the economy doing well will give you bad numbers. So 103 00:05:22,139 --> 00:05:25,259 Matthew Kidman: structural growth for now, and once we get into the 104 00:05:25,260 --> 00:05:27,480 Matthew Kidman: interest rate cutting cycle, you probably switch and look for 105 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,460 Matthew Kidman: those cyclical style stocks. 106 00:05:30,150 --> 00:05:32,099 Sean Aylmer: Okay, we don't have the Magnificent Seven, but we do 107 00:05:32,099 --> 00:05:34,109 Sean Aylmer: have the big four banks here. And in terms of 108 00:05:34,110 --> 00:05:36,928 Sean Aylmer: the actual market doing so well, the fact that Commonwealth 109 00:05:36,928 --> 00:05:39,539 Sean Aylmer: Bank's run hard, same with National Australia Bank and Westpac 110 00:05:39,540 --> 00:05:42,269 Sean Aylmer: and ANZ, to a lesser extent, because they're such big parts 111 00:05:42,270 --> 00:05:45,659 Sean Aylmer: of the market, they really have pushed the boss beyond 112 00:05:45,660 --> 00:05:50,760 Sean Aylmer: that 8, 000 point mark. Based on what you just 113 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,110 Sean Aylmer: said, can you keep buying the banks? 114 00:05:52,980 --> 00:05:55,259 Matthew Kidman: Well, you know my view on the banks, especially CBA, 115 00:05:55,259 --> 00:05:58,649 Matthew Kidman: it's expensive, but it has become the proxy for the 116 00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:01,500 Matthew Kidman: Australian market to go higher. That's where the gains in 117 00:06:01,500 --> 00:06:05,520 Matthew Kidman: the index have come from. I would say that you 118 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,029 Matthew Kidman: have to lean back on what you're taught and valuations 119 00:06:09,029 --> 00:06:11,940 Matthew Kidman: are important. If we do get interest rate cuts, we 120 00:06:11,940 --> 00:06:14,219 Matthew Kidman: know that the housing sector will probably fire up and 121 00:06:14,219 --> 00:06:16,199 Matthew Kidman: that's good for the banks, because that's the lion's share 122 00:06:16,199 --> 00:06:18,510 Matthew Kidman: of what they do these days. They're residential lenders, as 123 00:06:18,510 --> 00:06:22,410 Matthew Kidman: opposed to more broadly business lenders or economy wide lenders. 124 00:06:22,410 --> 00:06:25,859 Matthew Kidman: So that would help, I would think you watch the 125 00:06:25,860 --> 00:06:27,928 Matthew Kidman: results if you want to stay in banks, which I'm 126 00:06:27,928 --> 00:06:30,479 Matthew Kidman: not saying don't do it, you watch the results coming 127 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,969 Matthew Kidman: up, we'll get some quarterlies and the Commonwealth Bank half 128 00:06:32,969 --> 00:06:36,389 Matthew Kidman: year. And you've maybe picked two that are doing well, 129 00:06:36,660 --> 00:06:38,550 Matthew Kidman: rather than just being pre- committed. 130 00:06:39,060 --> 00:06:40,950 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Matthew. We'll be back in a minute. 131 00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:50,849 Sean Aylmer: My guest this morning is Matthew Kidman, principal at Centennial 132 00:06:50,849 --> 00:06:57,240 Sean Aylmer: Asset Management. You mentioned the Russell 3000 earlier on. The 133 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,839 Sean Aylmer: small cap index in Australia has been going to outperformed 134 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:02,790 Sean Aylmer: for years now, yet over the last two or three, 135 00:07:02,790 --> 00:07:06,450 Sean Aylmer: it's underperformed the large caps. Where are small caps up 136 00:07:06,450 --> 00:07:09,029 Sean Aylmer: to at the moment? And how should we think about 137 00:07:09,029 --> 00:07:09,899 Sean Aylmer: them going forward? 138 00:07:10,139 --> 00:07:13,110 Matthew Kidman: Yeah, so we had that switch last week in the US and there are 139 00:07:13,110 --> 00:07:16,770 Matthew Kidman: signs that investors want to get exposure to small caps 140 00:07:16,770 --> 00:07:20,730 Matthew Kidman: in Australia, but it hasn't shown up in the index. 141 00:07:20,730 --> 00:07:22,620 Matthew Kidman: Say in the last week or so, as we've gone 142 00:07:22,620 --> 00:07:26,219 Matthew Kidman: to these new records, smalls have probably performed the equivalent 143 00:07:26,219 --> 00:07:29,519 Matthew Kidman: to the bigger index, the 200 in Australia. So I 144 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,940 Matthew Kidman: think that that will come a bit later than what 145 00:07:32,940 --> 00:07:34,350 Matthew Kidman: we're saying, as I said, I think you've got to 146 00:07:34,350 --> 00:07:36,930 Matthew Kidman: stick with structural growth stories. And a lot of those 147 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,030 Matthew Kidman: at the moment, because you get that benefit of maybe 148 00:07:39,030 --> 00:07:41,790 Matthew Kidman: lower interest rates, not only official rates from Reserve Bank, 149 00:07:41,790 --> 00:07:44,879 Matthew Kidman: but importantly bond yield rates, which are now coming down 150 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,489 Matthew Kidman: around the globe. We talked about the US. Well, Canada's 151 00:07:47,490 --> 00:07:51,690 Matthew Kidman: gone, it's cut, and so is European Union. The US 152 00:07:51,690 --> 00:07:54,090 Matthew Kidman: will. And we're, as I said, just lagging, but we'll 153 00:07:54,090 --> 00:07:58,770 Matthew Kidman: cut at some stage. So structural growth stories like Goodman 154 00:07:58,770 --> 00:08:02,370 Matthew Kidman: Group, Cochlear, some of the bigger companies that can grow 155 00:08:02,610 --> 00:08:06,660 Matthew Kidman: low double digits in that environment. So I think the 156 00:08:06,660 --> 00:08:10,710 Matthew Kidman: smalls will perform and some of the lead stocks in 157 00:08:10,710 --> 00:08:13,680 Matthew Kidman: that will perform, but I think it will really kick 158 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,050 Matthew Kidman: in once you have two or three interest rate cuts, 159 00:08:16,290 --> 00:08:20,309 Matthew Kidman: because it's more exposed to the domestic economy. And the 160 00:08:20,309 --> 00:08:23,760 Matthew Kidman: domestic economy needs to start firing up again, and I 161 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,200 Matthew Kidman: suspect that's 12 months away. 162 00:08:25,620 --> 00:08:28,680 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So you mentioned Goodman Group there. You mentioned Cochlear. 163 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:30,690 Sean Aylmer: They're two of your favorite stocks at the moment? 164 00:08:31,470 --> 00:08:33,718 Matthew Kidman: We own Goodman Group. We don't own Cochlear. I'm just 165 00:08:33,719 --> 00:08:37,320 Matthew Kidman: saying we are mainly small caps, but I'm just talking 166 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,960 Matthew Kidman: about companies that tend to be able to grow regardless 167 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,630 Matthew Kidman: of the cycle, because they're on their own path. There's 168 00:08:42,929 --> 00:08:46,230 Matthew Kidman: others in the market. You might want exposure, because the 169 00:08:46,230 --> 00:08:48,990 Matthew Kidman: US is ahead, you might want exposure to the US 170 00:08:48,990 --> 00:08:51,270 Matthew Kidman: housing market. You buy James Hardie at that big end. 171 00:08:51,510 --> 00:08:54,569 Matthew Kidman: Smaller stocks, whether they be retail, whether they be building 172 00:08:54,570 --> 00:09:00,840 Matthew Kidman: materials, or even software companies, industrials in general, they're exposed 173 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,390 Matthew Kidman: to the domestic market. So a lot of them don't 174 00:09:03,390 --> 00:09:06,330 Matthew Kidman: have structural growth stories. Some do, but most of them 175 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:11,040 Matthew Kidman: rely heavily on the local market, local economy. And so, 176 00:09:11,340 --> 00:09:14,370 Matthew Kidman: their time will come, and I think they will catch up. 177 00:09:14,370 --> 00:09:18,030 Matthew Kidman: And when they go, they go pretty hard. But I think we 178 00:09:18,179 --> 00:09:22,559 Matthew Kidman: will probably see the big cap index, probably pace it 179 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,960 Matthew Kidman: for a little bit longer, but I'm optimistic. 180 00:09:25,350 --> 00:09:27,540 Sean Aylmer: We're a couple of weeks away from earning season. Starts 181 00:09:27,570 --> 00:09:29,970 Sean Aylmer: in August. What do you expect from that? 182 00:09:31,020 --> 00:09:35,879 Matthew Kidman: Mainly disappointments, because the economy's slowing. But I think what 183 00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:38,370 Matthew Kidman: you'll do is you probably want to, if you can, 184 00:09:38,700 --> 00:09:41,790 Matthew Kidman: avoid the absolute bombs. There's always some horrors, but there's 185 00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:45,630 Matthew Kidman: also some surprises. And you've got to pick your way 186 00:09:45,630 --> 00:09:48,840 Matthew Kidman: through it and just avoid stuff that it's probably going 187 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,329 Matthew Kidman: to give you a bad, bad indication of where things 188 00:09:51,509 --> 00:09:56,640 Matthew Kidman: are. I've talked about the consumer, so retail, the automobile 189 00:09:57,059 --> 00:10:02,610 Matthew Kidman: retailers, and media, those things that are very much domestic 190 00:10:02,849 --> 00:10:05,909 Matthew Kidman: related. I would say avoid that for the moment and 191 00:10:05,910 --> 00:10:10,290 Matthew Kidman: just see the results, because I suspect there's downgrades. But 192 00:10:10,650 --> 00:10:12,960 Matthew Kidman: then, the structural growth stories, they'll continue to grow. And 193 00:10:13,050 --> 00:10:15,720 Matthew Kidman: they don't have to grow at astronomical rates, but I 194 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,640 Matthew Kidman: think the market will watch it, it'll be a bit 195 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,130 Matthew Kidman: choppy during August, and then, it will go higher again. 196 00:10:20,490 --> 00:10:22,679 Matthew Kidman: What people forget is that we've been in a bull 197 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,250 Matthew Kidman: market for a while now. It was in October, 2022 198 00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:29,129 Matthew Kidman: that the NASDAQ bottomed. It was the lead indicator. That's 199 00:10:29,129 --> 00:10:31,440 Matthew Kidman: the big index of the world now that we all follow. 200 00:10:31,890 --> 00:10:35,338 Matthew Kidman: Other indexes soon followed later. As I said, Australia, 12 201 00:10:36,420 --> 00:10:39,900 Matthew Kidman: months, maybe nine months behind the US, and we bottomed 202 00:10:39,900 --> 00:10:43,649 Matthew Kidman: in October, 2022. And so, we've been going up ever 203 00:10:43,650 --> 00:10:47,458 Matthew Kidman: since. It is, in my eyes, another bull market, but 204 00:10:47,458 --> 00:10:50,760 Matthew Kidman: it's also the last leg of something that started in 205 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:55,559 Matthew Kidman: 2009. So we're 15 years in, not unusual that markets 206 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,889 Matthew Kidman: go for that extended period. We went from '82 to 207 00:10:58,889 --> 00:11:03,120 Matthew Kidman: 2000. We went from the late forties into the mid- 208 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:07,380 Matthew Kidman: 19 to 1966, there were big bull markets, and I think 209 00:11:07,380 --> 00:11:10,620 Matthew Kidman: we're going to have the last leg of it. And it started 210 00:11:10,710 --> 00:11:12,689 Matthew Kidman: last October for us and could last for two or 211 00:11:12,690 --> 00:11:15,030 Matthew Kidman: three years, and we should get above average gains in 212 00:11:15,030 --> 00:11:15,539 Matthew Kidman: that period. 213 00:11:16,770 --> 00:11:19,649 Sean Aylmer: Final question. I know you are sports mad, Matthew, always 214 00:11:19,650 --> 00:11:22,348 Sean Aylmer: has been. Will the Swans win the flag? And who 215 00:11:22,350 --> 00:11:24,870 Sean Aylmer: will win tonight? Queensland or New South Wales? Two questions 216 00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:25,260 Sean Aylmer: in fact. 217 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:30,390 Matthew Kidman: Yeah, so the Swans, they are the standout team in 218 00:11:30,390 --> 00:11:34,559 Matthew Kidman: the AFL and it's theirs to lose. I think they 219 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,110 Matthew Kidman: should win it. They definitely make a Grand Final. They've 220 00:11:37,110 --> 00:11:39,239 Matthew Kidman: got to perform on that day. So I'm tipping them. 221 00:11:39,750 --> 00:11:43,020 Matthew Kidman: In terms of state of origin, it's at home in 222 00:11:43,020 --> 00:11:47,670 Matthew Kidman: Queensland, they should win, but I suspect that we will 223 00:11:47,670 --> 00:11:50,429 Matthew Kidman: have an upset and that New South Wales will win. 224 00:11:50,849 --> 00:11:54,059 Matthew Kidman: And the main reason is that Queensland's team is, unfortunately 225 00:11:54,059 --> 00:11:56,910 Matthew Kidman: for them, not that good. So they'll have the home 226 00:11:56,910 --> 00:11:59,309 Matthew Kidman: ground advantage and they're the favorites, as I saw the 227 00:11:59,309 --> 00:12:03,838 Matthew Kidman: betting last night. But I think this could be the 228 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,838 Matthew Kidman: outlier where we buck the trend and history is wrong 229 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,390 Matthew Kidman: and New South Wales get the chocolates. 230 00:12:09,599 --> 00:12:12,269 Sean Aylmer: So there you go. We've got the Swans, we've got New South Wales 231 00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:14,549 Sean Aylmer: getting the chocolates, and we've got an interest rate cut 232 00:12:14,549 --> 00:12:16,588 Sean Aylmer: by the end of the year. Matthew, thank you for 233 00:12:16,590 --> 00:12:17,669 Sean Aylmer: talking to Fear and Greed. 234 00:12:17,940 --> 00:12:18,600 Matthew Kidman: Thanks, Sean. 235 00:12:19,230 --> 00:12:21,870 Sean Aylmer: That is Matthew Kidman from Centennial Asset Management. This is 236 00:12:21,870 --> 00:12:24,208 Sean Aylmer: the Fear and Greed business interview. Remember, this is general 237 00:12:24,210 --> 00:12:27,660 Sean Aylmer: information only, and you should seek professional advice before making 238 00:12:27,660 --> 00:12:30,630 Sean Aylmer: investment decisions. Join us every morning for the full episode 239 00:12:30,630 --> 00:12:33,088 Sean Aylmer: of Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who 240 00:12:33,089 --> 00:12:35,518 Sean Aylmer: make their own decisions. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.