1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,719 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigall 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,080 Speaker 1: people of the Eura Nation. 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,239 Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to a special summer edition of the 4 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 2: Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. I'm Joe Hildrand. But it's 5 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 2: not just Joe Hildebrand with you over the next few 6 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: weeks as we do a special retrospective of all the 7 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: biggest stories of the year. And this is a job 8 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: too big for one man to handle, and so I've 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: brought along someone very special. She's my sister from another mister, 10 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: my wife from another life, my lady who's a little 11 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,279 Speaker 2: bit shady, Sarah Harris, and I. 12 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 3: Was going cheap, can I just say? 13 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: And somehow, somehow, somehow, I was invited onto your podcast, 14 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 1: which has become three separate episodes over summer. 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: But I'm excited. 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: Yeah. 17 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 3: I adore you, Joe too. I like being back in 18 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 3: the broadcasting space with you. 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: I've engineered this entire cast in kaper just so the 20 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: two of us can get back together. 21 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 3: Oh is this our audition tape? 22 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 2: This is no, no, this is this is happening. This 23 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:13,119 Speaker 2: is real. Oh, this is going to air right now. 24 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: People are listening to this, dozens of them, dozens. 25 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 3: Scores tens of people out. 26 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 2: Tens of people. Now, for those of you still listening, first, 27 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 2: the first thing I want to talk about is World 28 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,160 Speaker 2: War III. I thought we'd just get the you know, 29 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: get the little stuff out of the way before we 30 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 2: get into the meatia stuff. But one of the things 31 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 2: I happen to notice about twenty twenty four is that 32 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: there are at least three points at which the world 33 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,199 Speaker 2: could instantly come to an end. So we've got the 34 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 2: war in the Middle East, and you know, armageddon, that's 35 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 2: where it's meant to happen. You've got the war between 36 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 2: Russia and Ukraine. And I know you're a big Putin guy. 37 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 2: I know you love that guy's swagger. 38 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: Because I named my Russian hair piece Putin because I 39 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: like to be Putin on my hair piece. 40 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 3: It does not mean I am a Putin fan. 41 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: Okay, my mistake. Sorry, I must have misread the email. 42 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 2: And of course, the election of Donald Trump, the greatest 43 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 2: political comeback in history. What does this mean for global stability? 44 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 2: What does this mean for Jana? And so there's all 45 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 2: these points where the world could descend or ascend into 46 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 2: a global conflagration, and I thought we could just sort 47 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: of figure that all out. Stop that from happening. Maybe 48 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 2: send Vlad your mate a little Christmas card and say, hey, 49 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 2: take a breath, take a seat. 50 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 1: Well, it's the festive season, so let's start at Defcon five. 51 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 1: I'm really worried about this whole situation. Everything at the 52 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: moment feels really ephemeral, Like I wondered if this is 53 00:02:56,280 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 1: how actually do you remember about two years ago of 54 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: my depression. I said to you, Joe, I'm going to 55 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: write a memoir, and your reaction was, how does it end? 56 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: I don't know how this is going to end. I 57 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: genuinely don't know. I mean, the Middle East scenario that 58 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: just just keeps going from. 59 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 3: Bad to worse. 60 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: I don't know whether Assad's collapse in Syria is going 61 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: to have even. 62 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:29,320 Speaker 2: Wors four possible flashballs right. 63 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: Right, I mean, you know who knows. I So you 64 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: like to say, you like to say that we're going 65 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: to Hell in a hand bask. Yes, well, I've brought 66 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: things hell. 67 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 2: We're going to Hell in a hand basket, not Hell 68 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 2: in a tote bag. 69 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: No, well, I brought some moonwater along because I think 70 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: we're going to need it this year. And I feel 71 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 1: like the only way we can actually digest and predict 72 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: what the. 73 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 3: Hell is going to go on. 74 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 2: The magic apl the magic Aateball. Remember we had that 75 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 2: idea for doing a podcast, you and me where it 76 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: would just be you reading tarot cards. 77 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 3: Yes, I left them in Melbourne. 78 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: That is not this podcast, okay, but listen, it's a 79 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 2: different one. 80 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: The thing that worries me, Okay. 81 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: For example, I mean I actually remember being in Turkey, 82 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:26,040 Speaker 1: probably about twenty eleven, when Pregan Yard's regime had kicked up, 83 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: kicked off, and we were speaking to a bunch of 84 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: Syrians who'd fled over some drinks, and it kind of 85 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 1: blows my mind that it was thirteen years and all 86 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: of a sudden this regime has collapsed. 87 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 3: Remember when he first got in how. 88 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: It was said to be this, It was supposed to 89 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: be hopeful for the West. 90 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,119 Speaker 3: He was having dinner dinner with Gradelina. 91 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: It was going to be a cultural centers, tolerant towards Christians. 92 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: The dork yophthalmologist Becas was the Paris of the East. 93 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 3: That's it, that's it, Den Brandelina. 94 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: I mean his wife was doing these softball puff pieces 95 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: in Vogue. 96 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 3: I think they were calling her the rows of the desert. 97 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 3: Look how badly that turned out. 98 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 2: Well, this is the thing. So the problem with the 99 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,160 Speaker 2: Middle East generally, as everybody knows, is that all these 100 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: nation states are kind of fabricated there. I'm not blaming 101 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,840 Speaker 2: everything on colonialism. It's all the British and French fault. 102 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 2: Bl blah blah blah. I mean it's a bit their fault. 103 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: But also the Ottoman Empire joined World War One on 104 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 2: the side of the Kaiser. So they joined the bad guys. 105 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,679 Speaker 2: They had to pick a side. Okay, fine, fair enough, whatever, 106 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 2: but they joined the Germans. They lost. They backed the 107 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: wrong horse. Sorry, guys, bad Like, we get to carve 108 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 2: up your empire now. And so that is what's happened. 109 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 2: The result of that has been that you need a 110 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 2: strong man, and not a democratic strong man, to actually 111 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 2: hold power. You need to be able, this is the theory. Anyway, 112 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 2: you need to be able to basically crack a few 113 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 2: heads together, make sure that under these sort of warring tribes, 114 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 2: get out a line. And that's the only way you 115 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 2: can prevent basically anarchy. And Saddam Hussein as an obvious example, 116 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 2: and Bashir al Asad is another obvious example. And the 117 00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 2: problem with these guys is they're nasty people. They're horrible, horrible, 118 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 2: horrible people, and they do horrible things to their populations. 119 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 2: But once they go, do you just get someone even worse? 120 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 3: That's right, I mean it. 121 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 1: When the Taliban was elected back in the nineties, I 122 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 1: mean they were celebrated. 123 00:06:32,720 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 2: They won it fair and square. 124 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: But they were celebrated because they cut the top of 125 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 1: the warlords. 126 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 2: That's right. Well, the Taliban back. The Taliban were backed 127 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 2: by the US against the Russians, the Talibans. But like 128 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 2: if you watch Rambo three, right, the people he's working 129 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 2: with that slice alone in the great American heroes working 130 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 2: with in Rambo three are basically the Taliban, and he 131 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 2: uses them to get rid of the Russians, and then 132 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 2: of course they get replaced with something else. And then 133 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 2: you get, well, the Dalabad replaced by the sort of 134 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,479 Speaker 2: US coalition forces and then suddenly they just came back. 135 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 2: But that's another story. But again, if you look at Iraq, 136 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: what happened as soon as Saddam Husseaying gets toppled vacuum 137 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 2: power vacuum and you have the site power base. I 138 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 2: think it was that replaces the Bathurst and the Bathists 139 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: of these weird kind of socialist nationalist, kind of crazy people, 140 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 2: these sort of Arab nationalists, right, and so you've got 141 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: them and they're sort of a political movement with different strands. 142 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 2: So that was Saddam. That was also basically assad in 143 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: Syria as well. But then Saddam he's a horrible man, 144 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 2: a dictator, kills people, tortures people. You get rid of 145 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: him and suddenly isis Suddenly because of course you've got 146 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 2: people who are saying right now the shouts are in charge, 147 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 2: and they say, right now we're gonna, you know, screw you. 148 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 2: You've been pushing us around and telling us what to 149 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 2: do and im pressing us for too long. And then 150 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: suddenly this Sunnis feel like they're the oppressed ones. Sunnis 151 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: used to be the good guys. Remember that Irana Rak War. 152 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 2: We were on the rock side and Sudney versus Shia. 153 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: So the Sunnis are now upset and we think they're 154 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 2: the kind of more peaceable Muslims. No, they're the ones 155 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 2: who form ISIS and become worse than al Qaeda. They say, hey, 156 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 2: al Qaida, you know what, you're a bit soft. Nine 157 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: to eleven didn't go far enough. 158 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 1: Where they go, what about the new mob that's probably 159 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,559 Speaker 1: going to take control of Syria. 160 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: They are, well al Qaeda is. 161 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 2: About al Qaeda and ISIS, and they don't like Iran, 162 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:38,599 Speaker 2: some Turkish forces and and well Iran was Iran and 163 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 2: Russia were the ones who were propping up ASAD. So basically, 164 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 2: remember you know twenty fourteen peak of ISIS. They're blowing 165 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 2: up people. You know, they're just marching through the levant, 166 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 2: They're bulldozering innocent people in villages, They're blowing people up 167 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 2: in the West, you know, the batter Klan theater in 168 00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 2: Paris and everything. Ice is going absolutely and we're all 169 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 2: going what the hell? And all the Western forces are 170 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: trying to sort of fight ASAD but fight ISIS at 171 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: the same time, and of course we couldn't do it. 172 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 2: We got completely sucking because we're on the side of 173 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 2: the democratic rebels who are rising up to fight a SARDE. So, okay, 174 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 2: we want to help them, the Arab spring yay, you 175 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 2: know students who are out there. It would have been 176 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 2: me at a young age if there were no guns, 177 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 2: and so the West ones to help them. But as 178 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 2: soon as they help these rebels are arm them. Iis 179 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 2: just comes along and says, give me your guns, and 180 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 2: the good rebels say, no, we are fighting for democracy, 181 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 2: not fundamentalism. And Isa says, give us your guns or 182 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 2: will kill you and your entire family. Okay, here's the guns. 183 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 2: And this is actually what happened. All these Arab Spring 184 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 2: protest movements right across North Africa and the Arab world 185 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: all got hijacked by extremists. And of course that's what 186 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 2: extremists do. They hijack things, and so the moderates always 187 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: end up losing out because the extremists are always prepared 188 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 2: to go to more extreme links losing the name. And 189 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 2: so that's what's happening in Syria. 190 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 3: And then you look at the Russian situation. 191 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 2: And then that's right, but how much? 192 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: And it's interesting because you're just saying that in a 193 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: way that a lot of it is to do with 194 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: the meddling of the West, which the West can be 195 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,439 Speaker 1: accused of possibly meddling as well. In the Russia Ukraine situation, 196 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: how how many times has Russia said it does not, 197 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: it doesn't, it's right, does not want NATO on its doorstep, 198 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: And then Ukraine is pushing for a NATO membership. 199 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 2: This is a valid point of view. This is something 200 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 2: that a lot of people are kind of saying. 201 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 3: I've got Ukrainian. 202 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 2: Ukraine poke the bear. 203 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: I've got Ukrainian friends who've said, look, you know, obviously 204 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: we don't like the disorder of our people or the 205 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 1: you know, the advancement of Russian troops into our country. 206 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: But at the same time, we can't understand that, you 207 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 1: know that the Russia doesn't want the West anywhere near it. 208 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 2: That's right, And I think and again it comes down 209 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 2: to problems with how these places were drawn up in 210 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 2: the aftermath of giant global conflicts, like after you know, 211 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 2: obviously after World War Two, Stalin got to take all 212 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 2: the area between Russia and where the Red Army march to, 213 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 2: which was East Berlin. Like so he just takes everything 214 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 2: and he can do what he wants with it. And 215 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 2: what he does is he sets up puppet regimes in 216 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 2: Poland and blah blah blah. And he does the same 217 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 2: thing in Ukraine, of course. But Ukraine is particularly special 218 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 2: to the Russians because firstly, their origin story begins with 219 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 2: the I think they call him the Kiev russ In 220 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: the nine hundreds AD. And these were like supposed to 221 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 2: be Vikings that came down from Scandinavia and then set 222 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 2: up their first kind of trading out post town settlement 223 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 2: whatever in Kiev. And they were the ones that became 224 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 2: the Russians. And that's where that's where the name comes from, 225 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 2: the russ and so Peutin and he goes and sells 226 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 2: all this propaganda to the Russian Yeah, yeah, yeah, and 227 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 2: so to the Russians. It's as though, you know, it's like, 228 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: would you like telling Australia, Oh no, sorry, Sydney wants 229 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: to be its own country. Now, Sydney wants to be independent. 230 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 2: That's how they're they're seeing it. But the amazing twist, 231 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 2: of course, is that I mean, but I suppose so 232 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 2: there's all that historical stuff. But I've always thought, you 233 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 2: can't fight wars based on history. You can't fight wars 234 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 2: trying to do or undo history. This is how you 235 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 2: have to deal with the world. You have to deal 236 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 2: with the world as it is. Now. We're here, now, 237 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: we're in this mess. Now, how do we go forward? 238 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 2: How do we progress? I think all these conflicts Russia 239 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 2: and Ukraine, you know, Israel and Palestine. They're all still going, 240 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: they're all still alive, and people are still being killed 241 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 2: because people are arguing over history, people are arguing over 242 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 2: what happened before, whose fault it was, who started it. 243 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 2: And the truth is, of course, you can make any 244 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,719 Speaker 2: argument on any side for whose fault it is and 245 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: who started, and it will suit your purpose. In the meantime, 246 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 2: people get killed, people die of old age. While these 247 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 2: conflicts are still going, they don't get results. I mean, 248 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:14,239 Speaker 2: one of the big sticking points in Israel versus Palestine 249 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 2: is all these displaced refugees insay the West Bank. 250 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 3: Who were on the border of Lebanon like sixty. 251 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 2: That's right, who are still saying that do not want 252 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 2: to go to They don't want to go anywhere else. 253 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 2: They don't want to stop and move on with a 254 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 2: new life, because they're constantly being told no, you have 255 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 2: to hang in there. You have to hold on to 256 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 2: this historical claim of your parents or your grandparents to 257 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 2: getting your house back that you lost in nineteen sixty 258 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:43,679 Speaker 2: seven or nine en forty eight or whatever it was, 259 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: that right of return and the right of return, and 260 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 2: so of course that makes it impossible to practically progress 261 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 2: a peace plan, because you're fighting over trying to restore, 262 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 2: to bring back a piece of history, to bring back 263 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,439 Speaker 2: things as they were at a fixed point in time, 264 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 2: and that is obviously impossible to do without a time machine. 265 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,960 Speaker 2: And yet that seems to be what is consuming both sides, 266 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 2: and so I think you have to say, right, what 267 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: are the practical things we can do now in the 268 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 2: meantime to actually move forward. So you're starting from a 269 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,840 Speaker 2: position of Israel and Palestine each denying the other's right 270 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 2: to exist. You shouldn't be here, you shouldn't be here, 271 00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 2: all right. 272 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 1: Well. 273 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: One of the other big grievances of people on the 274 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 2: West Bank, for example, is that Israel charges too much 275 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 2: for its water and electricity, which is something I think 276 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 2: all Australians can relate to high power bills. It pisces 277 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 2: people off here and it pisces people off there. So 278 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: you know, again, you could just say, all right, we 279 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 2: will provide you power and electricity at the exact same 280 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 2: price that Israel pays for it. Okay, how about that 281 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: nice little gesture of good will, you know, and then 282 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 2: you can talk about you know, there's settlers being in 283 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: places where they definitely shouldn't be. I mean, this isn't 284 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 2: even sort of contested Israel. Settlers are in places no 285 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: way they should be, and you know, say all right, 286 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: we'll move back here. And then if the Palestinians say, great, 287 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 2: thanks very much, well we're still going to wipe you out. 288 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 2: We still don't acknowledge your right to exist. Well, sure, 289 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 2: maybe you've you know, lost a couple of minor details 290 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 2: in the negotiating green, but you haven't really lost anything, 291 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 2: and you've gained the moral high ground. One of the 292 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 2: reason in the settlers are there. They are because it's 293 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 2: the physical high ground they reckon for strategic pabasis. Crazy 294 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: what so you can get a gun and like. 295 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: Isn't it that if they let the Palestinians move into 296 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: that area, this is what they argue that they would 297 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 1: have the line airport. 298 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. So again this is where you get 299 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 2: into sort of conspiracy that you know what, you're already 300 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: at war. It can't get much worse, can it? 301 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: So? 302 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 3: And what about Russia and Ukraine? 303 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: Isn't Zelenski's sticking point that he's happy to let Russia 304 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 1: keep the land that's already been taken as long as 305 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 1: as long as Ukraine can intonate and that, which is 306 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: just an absolute no from Russia. 307 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I don't know. With Trump now in charge 308 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 2: and telling people telling Zelenski's telling Putin that he's got 309 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 2: to cut a deal, and with Zelenski knowing that maybe 310 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 2: USAID might not be as forthcoming as it was, I 311 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 2: think you will suddenly get to that point. And again, 312 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 2: if if Ukraine gives back the eastern sort of Russian 313 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 2: speaking parts of the country, and frankly, Crimea probably should 314 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 2: have gone to Russia in the first place. Anyway, there's 315 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 2: an argument, but you'd hold a referendum in the Russian 316 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 2: speaking parts if the majority said yes, we want to 317 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 2: be with Russia, you go, okay, fair cop leave the 318 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 2: rest of us alone. But I think it would be 319 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: reasonable to say, well, as an added ara of protection, 320 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 2: we've just seeded all this territory to you. The least 321 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 2: you can do is give us NATO, and Putin might 322 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 2: cop that. And again, does that restore things? You know, 323 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 2: that doesn't, That doesn't put things back to the way 324 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 2: they were at some fixed point in time that you know, 325 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: the Kiev, russ and the Vikings, you know, don't suddenly 326 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 2: take over the capital city of Kevev again, and NATO 327 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 2: didn't even exist back when you know, these first decisons 328 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 2: were being made. But it's something you can live with. 329 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 2: You say, well, we're here now, and this is something 330 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 2: we can live with. This is the most practical thing 331 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: we can get, and then people get used to it, 332 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,360 Speaker 2: and then that's your new sticking point for the next 333 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 2: war in fifty years time. 334 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: Or has justin Timberlake put it crimea River. It feels like, 335 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: you know, for all the pondering, you know, are we 336 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: already in the middle of World War three? I think 337 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: the signs and I don't even need the magic Eate 338 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 1: wall for this. 339 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 3: The signs point of years, we're already in it. 340 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 2: We're in the middle of World Skirmish three. Yeah, they've 341 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 2: probably been more than. 342 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 3: How much of that is because of us? Because of 343 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,200 Speaker 3: Western interference. 344 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: I think, and like you see that, you see that 345 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: kind of mood as changing in the States. In the 346 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: United States, they don't want to be involved in any 347 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: more foreign wars. 348 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 2: They're exceptionalism. 349 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,160 Speaker 1: Billions of dollars overseas to be part of a war 350 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: that there's nothing. 351 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 3: To do with them. 352 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, And again you can totally understand that. 353 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 2: And there are plenty of wars that the West starts 354 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 2: or rather responds to things happening overseas where there's often 355 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 2: a call for them to come in and protect a 356 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 2: Kuwait for example, or. 357 00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 3: No where there's a vested interest, or to. 358 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 2: You know, where there happens to be a lot of oil. 359 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 2: They seem to come a bit quicker, but or you know, 360 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 2: you know nine to eleven where it's like, well, we 361 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 2: can't we have to do something, like they have to 362 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 2: do something in America is usually pretty terrible at fighting 363 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 2: guerrilla wars or you know, invading care for a country 364 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 2: that it's just so, that's right, So we're just going 365 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 2: to turn this terror war into an actual whether the 366 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,439 Speaker 2: enemy is there and it's somewhere we can see in 367 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,479 Speaker 2: somewhere we can bomb and we think it's Saddam Hussein 368 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 2: and we've got this intelligence. Didn't turn out to be right, 369 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: but whatever, and of course going to Stan as well 370 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 2: and all that stuff. So it does do these things, 371 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 2: and it does go into their areas and screw them up. 372 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 2: But I think there's two things. One is, once you've 373 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 2: gone in there and messed it up, you have to 374 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 2: clean up that mess. And the other thing, of course, 375 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 2: is that sometimes you actually really do need the Americans 376 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 2: to come in because the last time there was a 377 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 2: bunch of America First rhetoric around. There's actually a movement 378 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 2: called America First. There was a whole bunch of people 379 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 2: who were urging America not to get involved in World 380 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 2: War two. Just let the Nazis do their thing. It's 381 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 2: not our problem, not our fight. Don't get involved. Turn 382 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 2: that boat away with all the Jews on it. And 383 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,960 Speaker 2: Britain's entire survival strategy during the Battle of Britain during 384 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 2: the Blitz was to get the Americans to come on board. 385 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 2: And Whenston Churchill famously said, the Americans will always do 386 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 2: the right thing once they've tried everything else. So once 387 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 2: they've run out of all other options, I go, okay, fine, 388 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 2: we'll come and help you beat the Nazis. And so 389 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 2: there is that. But the other thing haws this really 390 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: nice twist, though maybe a bad twist. The West's intervention 391 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: in at least some ways, has actually brought about the 392 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 2: downfall of Asad in Syria, because the only reason his 393 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,719 Speaker 2: regime has collapsed from no one saw this coming. All 394 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 2: these rebels, you know, just started taking town after town 395 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 2: after town out of town. 396 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 3: Ran was weakened. 397 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 2: Because Iran was concentrating on Israel, supported by the West. 398 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,879 Speaker 2: But Moran was concentrating on Israel. That so I couldn't 399 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 2: send Hezbola and its other troops to help Syria. And 400 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 2: Russia was too busy fighting Ukraine, which was being supported 401 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 2: by the West, and so didn't have any resources to 402 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:45,880 Speaker 2: help Syria out, and so suddenly Syria. 403 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: Do you have a good feeling about Trump? I mean, 404 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: Trump's famously declared that could he could end the war 405 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 1: with Russia and Ukraine in a day, sought out the 406 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: Middle East in just as much time. 407 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 3: Do you have of hopes that he can do that? 408 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 2: Do you know what, Sarah, I do have a good 409 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 2: feeling about Donald Trump. 410 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: And I did you have a good about Donald Trump? 411 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: But in this regard, I mean, is it beyond solving? 412 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,439 Speaker 2: I do not think it is beyond solving, but I 413 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:20,239 Speaker 2: think it needs something brand new and exciting that is 414 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 2: way out of what people have been doing before. And 415 00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 2: I think we should talk about this next week on 416 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 2: the Real Story, when we discuss the comeback of Donald J. Trump. 417 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 2: Can we just put the do you think you have 418 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: to do bl okay, okay, what's the question? 419 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, so hang on twenty twenty five, will we be 420 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 1: engulfed in World War three? 421 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 3: You may rely on it. 422 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 2: What a way to go? 423 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 3: I want to go in helves in one of those 424 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:56,480 Speaker 3: underground bunkers. 425 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 2: All right, well, look, I think we've successfully solved all 426 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 2: the world problems. But Sarah Harris come back next week 427 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 2: and we will discuss the comeback of all comebacks by 428 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 2: the comeback King Donald J. Trump Time Person of the Year. 429 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: And that is all we have time for this week. 430 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:16,919 Speaker 2: Of course, if you like what you're here, give us 431 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 2: a rating, give us a review. Only the five star works, 432 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 2: and only ones with lots of nice emojis works. 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