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Speaker 1: So welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can

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Speaker 1: use today. The big switch between banks and miners continues

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Speaker 1: as the local share market has its worst day in

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Speaker 1: three months. The gloves are off as the leaders of

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Speaker 1: Federal Labor and the Coalition take potshots ahead of Parliament

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Speaker 1: starting today, and Costco emerges as a serious player in

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Speaker 1: the local grocery market. Plus eight years on AMP finally

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Speaker 1: turns around, the leakage of funds under management, and the

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Speaker 1: London Stock Exchange contemplates twenty four hour trading. It is Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty second of July twenty twenty five. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and good morning Sean Ailmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. The local share market tumbled yesterday,

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Speaker 1: having its worst session since April, with the switch from

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Speaker 1: the big banks to the blue chip miners seeming to

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Speaker 1: gain steam.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, the easiest way to demonstrate the big switch is

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Speaker 2: to look at what happened on the ASEX yesterday. Commonwealth Bank,

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Speaker 2: National Australian banks all fell around two and a half percent,

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Speaker 2: Westpac dropped around three and a half percent. In contrast,

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Speaker 2: BHP rows zero point seven percent. Rare Tinto and Fortescue Metals.

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Speaker 2: We're both up around one and a half percent. The

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Speaker 2: best part of the story, though, Michael, the reason why

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Speaker 2: the big miners did well. Stay with me on this, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm here, Okay. Over the weekend, Chinese Premier Legu Kwang

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Speaker 2: launched construction of the two hundred and fifty billion hydro

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Speaker 2: power project on river in the southwest of the country,

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Speaker 2: near to Bed two. One hundred and fifty Billion's.

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Speaker 1: This infrastructure on a whole other scale, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: It is. The project will consist of five cascade dams.

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Speaker 2: And we're not talking little dms here. We're not talking

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Speaker 2: about the projects you did in year six at school.

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Speaker 2: We are talking serious cascade dams. It'll be the world's

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Speaker 2: largest hydro facility. Isn't universally welcomed. It has raised some

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Speaker 2: concerns about water supply and the environmental impact downstream places

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Speaker 2: like India and Bangala dish. However, it will certainly provide

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Speaker 2: a positive jolt for construction materials things like metal, cement

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Speaker 2: glass that helped own all futures contracts hit more than

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Speaker 2: one hundred and four US dollars a ton. That's the

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Speaker 2: highest since March that got the big miners going by

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Speaker 2: the clothes. Yesterday the S and PA six two hundred. Notwithstanding,

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Speaker 2: the Russian miners ended down more than one percent to

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Speaker 2: eighty six hundred and sixty eight points.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we focused a little bit there on dams.

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Speaker 2: But if we get to be carried away, I know

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Speaker 2: that was the main story.

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Speaker 1: Just the scale I cannot get over just the size

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Speaker 1: of that and the amount of money and the impact

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Speaker 1: that that does have. But just back to the big

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Speaker 1: switch for a minute. Is this switch from the banks

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Speaker 1: to the miners real? Because you and I talked about

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Speaker 1: this three weeks ago, So is this actually now what

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Speaker 1: we are seeing playing out?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's one of those things you never

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Speaker 2: know that has happened until it's happened, so you can't

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Speaker 2: definitively say it's on. But over the past month, Comwealth

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Speaker 2: Banks share price down four percent, National Australia Bank down

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Speaker 2: two percent, Westpac off one percent. Ain Z's the exception.

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Speaker 2: It had underperformed most of the last year, but it's

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Speaker 2: actually up six percent, but three the big four well

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Speaker 2: and truly lower over the last month. In that time,

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Speaker 2: BHP up thirteen percent, rare forourtes Q up twenty percent.

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Speaker 2: On that basis, it's pretty clear the big switch from

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Speaker 2: banks to miners has continued, but it's shifted beyond the miners.

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Speaker 2: So the healthcare stocks have also done really well. See

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Speaker 2: our Cells up six percent, Cochlear five percent. It's almost

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Speaker 2: like abb anything but banks. So investors at the moment

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Speaker 2: are afraid that the banks are overvalued and looking elsewhere.

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Speaker 2: The miners the biggest benefits beneficiaries. Healthcare companies are also

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Speaker 2: doing well. Basically they're spending the new financial year looking

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Speaker 2: beyond banks.

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Speaker 1: Okay, big story now I mentioned this earlier. Sean for

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Speaker 1: the first time in eight years, there's been an increase

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Speaker 1: rather than a decrease in funds under management in amp's

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Speaker 1: Superannuation and Investments division.

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Speaker 2: So how long has a podcast been going? Five years,

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Speaker 2: five six years, five and a half years. It sunds

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Speaker 2: like ten, but I don't think anytime in that period.

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Speaker 2: In fact, I know for sure we have been able

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Speaker 2: to say good news for AMP.

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Speaker 1: No, it's very rare.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it has gone from a big company, a

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Speaker 2: blue chip while we've been doing this show, to a

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Speaker 2: very small company. Really, so I think it's important that

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Speaker 2: we report that it's reported a sharp improvement in cash

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Speaker 2: flows across its core business. The group's superannuation Investments division

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Speaker 2: said net inflows were up thirty three million dollars. That's

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Speaker 2: the first positive quarter since twenty seventeen, since the Gin

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Speaker 2: quarter in twenty seventeen. It is worth marking at the bank.

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Speaker 2: Omp's loan book edge higher to twenty three and a

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Speaker 2: half billion dollars. Deposits remained broadly steady. That's an AMP

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Speaker 2: share price up ten percent yesterday. It's now approaching the

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Speaker 2: highs of early February. It actually very well in the

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Speaker 2: second half of last year through to February. Then it

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Speaker 2: fell off a cliff. It's almost back to those February levels.

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Speaker 1: I remember, back in the relatively early days of fear

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Speaker 1: and greed. It was in twenty twenty one we were

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Speaker 1: talking about Alexis George taking over as CEO and just

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Speaker 1: talking about just the massive, massive job that she had

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Speaker 1: to do. And I mean, clearly something is working.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, And they really had to write size AMP.

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Speaker 2: I think that was a phrase that they were using.

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Speaker 2: They also had enormous pr issues going on there with

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Speaker 2: some of the previous management in AMP Capital yes, that's

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Speaker 2: v Opahi. The gentleman's name was called Yes. And they

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Speaker 2: seem to have come through all that, which is great.

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Speaker 2: And it's not a big company. It's now a small company.

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Speaker 2: But it's good to see some good news.

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Speaker 1: A company with such a long, long history in Australia,

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Speaker 1: you don't want to see it in trouble.

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Speaker 2: And many many shareholders still Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, and just before we leave financial markets, JP Morgan,

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Speaker 1: Chase and Co. Has become far and away the biggest

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Speaker 1: bank in the US. It is now worth more than

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Speaker 1: the value of the next three banks combined.

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Speaker 2: That's big, yes, but it's actually a bit like the

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Speaker 2: Commonwealth Bank, isn't it if you think of it. The

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Speaker 2: next three banks Bank of America, City Group in Wells

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Speaker 2: Fargo and JP Morgan is now worth about eight hundred

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Speaker 2: billion US dollars, so more than three times that, mind you,

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Speaker 2: I was thinking about it. Eight hundred billion dollars, so

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Speaker 2: it's at one point two trillion? Was he Commonwealth Banks

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Speaker 2: three hundred billion? So it's twenty five percent the size

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Speaker 2: but given them, yeah, it's ten times.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Colon Wealth Bank is a star.

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Speaker 2: So I know this is about and we've just been

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Speaker 2: saying has been sold off.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, anyway, but JP Morgan better than the bigger than

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Speaker 2: the next three combined.

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Speaker 1: Okay, big starts to the show. We covered a bit

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Speaker 1: of stuff, really, haven't we did, from dams in China

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Speaker 1: through to amp and Comonwealth Bank quick Break. We'll be

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Speaker 1: back in a moment with the rest of the day's

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Speaker 1: business news, Sean. The federal parliamentary battle has begun, with

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Alberzi calling the opposition the the no Elition.

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Speaker 2: It's pretty good, it's a good line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just it would be nice just to start

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Speaker 1: the new term with a bit of civility. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: And Liberal leader Susan Lee is saying that she will

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Speaker 1: fight the government every step of the way on crucial issues,

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Speaker 1: including tax reforms, so maybe no ilition is deserved.

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Speaker 2: Alberanzi, did you see the pictures he walked to work

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Speaker 2: yesterday with his son Nathan. Is it an interesting how

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Speaker 2: Nathan is turning up everywhere at the moment. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure what the deal is there.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, succession planning, Sean.

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Speaker 2: It is the ALP. Perhaps you're right, so Nathan wandered

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Speaker 2: up up up the hill to Parliament along with his father,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Alberi. He Albanesi started by saying we're going to

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Speaker 2: have a very positive agenda and then became very negative,

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Speaker 2: calling the opposition a no alition. He was a good line.

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Speaker 2: He was extremely confident yesterday, saying the party could grow

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Speaker 2: its huge majority, though he did warn his caucus against Hubris.

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Speaker 2: He said voters don't expect perfection and that the world

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Speaker 2: will throw things at us. I quate him here, but

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Speaker 2: they expect that we will put them first rather than

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Speaker 2: be focused internally on what goes on in this buildings.

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Speaker 2: Great men. While Susan Lee addressed the joint coalition party

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Speaker 2: room called on members and senators to be the best

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Speaker 2: possible opposition. Now. All this came after the latest opinion polls.

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Speaker 2: Probably the big one was newspoll from The Australian. It

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Speaker 2: showed the Opposition has fallen to its lowest primary vote

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Speaker 2: in forty years twenty nine percent on a two party

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Speaker 2: preferred basis. It has actually gone backwards against the against

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Speaker 2: the ALP.

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Speaker 1: Now, Sean, I'm going to do this next one quickly.

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Speaker 1: I want you to explain.

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Speaker 2: This quickly, which is quib the face quite.

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Speaker 1: The challenge because there is a bit in this. But

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Speaker 1: Employment Hero has accused one of its Seek of anti

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Speaker 1: competitive conduct after the ASX listed recruitment giant cut off

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Speaker 1: the billion dollar human resources startups access to a hiring platform.

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Speaker 2: Now there's a lot in this. So the first thing

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Speaker 2: I've got to know is that Seek is a big

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Speaker 2: investor in Employment Hero. Employment Hero focuses more on younger

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Speaker 2: people looking for jobs. In filings with the Federal Court,

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Speaker 2: Employment Heroes attempting to stop Seek from a decision that

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Speaker 2: Seek may terminating Employment Heroes access to a tool that

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Speaker 2: allows develops to connect their platform or automate parts of

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Speaker 2: the recruitment process. According to the AFAR, basically, Employment Hero

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Speaker 2: accesses SEEKS platform through an API, Seeks saying you can't

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Speaker 2: do that anymore. Employment Hero is claiming in federal court

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Speaker 2: that it's a breach of competition laws if they're not

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Speaker 2: allowed to do it, and Seek disagrees. One I think

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Speaker 2: is great about this story. I mean, these sort of

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Speaker 2: battles go on, but not often that you're actually the

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Speaker 2: owner of the company, you sue the owner for allegedly

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Speaker 2: breaching any competition rules. It's going to make a very

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Speaker 2: very interesting nextpot we've ben.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's going to be slightly confrontational. Now what do

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Speaker 1: you make of this one? I think this is fascinating.

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Speaker 1: Costco is emerging as a serious player in the local

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Speaker 1: grocery sector, with the US retailer now hitting annual sales

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Speaker 1: of around five billion dollars a year here in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Are you a member of Costco?

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Speaker 1: I'm not. There isn't one close enough to make it worthwhile.

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Speaker 1: How about you?

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Speaker 2: You were? There isn't one close to me. But we

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Speaker 2: still go out there and we buy we when we

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Speaker 2: still have tissues and paper toweling and laundry detergent from

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Speaker 2: months ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great. Kind of forty packets of toilet paper

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Speaker 1: ding COVID, didn't.

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Speaker 2: You the sector, the supermarket sector is worth one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty billion dollars, dominated by Willies and Coles obviously,

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Speaker 2: but more and more people are signing up to Costco's

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Speaker 2: membership model. Costco now operates from fifteen stores in Australia.

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Speaker 2: It calls them warehouses, believe to have attracted one hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand paid up members per store to give it a

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Speaker 2: membership base. Of about one and a half minion. According

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Speaker 2: to a story in The Australian, Costco arrived in Australian

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Speaker 2: in two thousand and nine. Cells bulk groceries very competitive prices.

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Speaker 2: I've got to say, any ideas that you go once

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Speaker 2: a month on some goods, they're very competitive prices. But

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Speaker 2: if you keep an eye out at woolies and coals

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Speaker 2: and Aldi particularly IgA you can actually get equivalent deals.

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Speaker 1: But not on a six pack of barbecue chickens though.

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Speaker 2: And the good thing is once you get out that

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Speaker 2: you buy lots of stuff that you know you're going

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Speaker 2: to throw. Even when you're buying it, you know you're

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Speaker 2: going to eventually throw it.

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Speaker 1: But it's too hard to walk past us. Just on that.

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Speaker 1: It is really interesting the fact that what's that about

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Speaker 1: four percent of their about market share in Australia, whereas

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Speaker 1: Aldi is around nine percent and Costco has fifteen stores,

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Speaker 1: Aldi has five hundred and ninety nine. Oh wow, isn't

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Speaker 1: that interesting?

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Speaker 2: Clearly this is the margins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and this membership drive and getting people to pay

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Speaker 1: and join up is clearly working for them just quickly.

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Speaker 1: Corporate News block share price jumped eleven percent yesterday mirroring

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Speaker 1: a mirror ing. That's a hard one to say. A

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Speaker 1: similar rise on Wall Street after it joined the S

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Speaker 1: and P five hundred index.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it joined the S and P five hundred index

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Speaker 2: because Hess, the earl giant, has been bought by chev Run,

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Speaker 2: so there's a spot available. Block jumped into that. SOW

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Speaker 2: thirty two reported a strong June quarter production, its share

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Speaker 2: price jump four percent. Regis Resources did a deal to

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Speaker 2: buy a mind from Great Southern I finished down four percent,

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Speaker 2: and did Singing Your Financial said that it's talks with

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Speaker 2: CC Capital. It's a three point four billion dollar takeover bid.

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Speaker 2: Basically said there's no certainty that the discussions would lead

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Speaker 2: to a formal offer, and that's in its share price

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Speaker 2: down six percent.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Turning to international news now, and the Japanese Prime

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Speaker 1: minister intends to stay on even as his ruling coalition

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Speaker 1: stuffered a historic step back in an upper House election

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Speaker 1: over the weekend, an outcome that has unsettled financial markets.

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Speaker 2: So, Michael, what's the name of the Japanese Prime minister,

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Speaker 2: Shigeru Ishaba. You'll find Michael one of those hard names

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Speaker 2: to say. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, along with longtime

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Speaker 2: partner Kmato lost its majority in the chamber. That marks

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Speaker 2: the first time since nineteen fifty five that a leader

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Speaker 2: from the LDP will govern the country without a majority

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Speaker 2: in at least one of the legislative bodies, with a

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Speaker 2: coalition securrying just forty seven seats it needed fifty. The

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Speaker 2: results the second disappointing election result from Ishaba since he

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Speaker 2: became premier last October. LDP did win the most number

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Speaker 2: of seats, but basically now needs to form a coalition.

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Speaker 2: The outcome reflects simmering discontent over a cost of living crunch,

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Speaker 2: training support from the ruling coalition and benefiting smaller populist

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Speaker 2: parties offering tax cuts, or opposition to an influx of

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Speaker 2: foreigners in the country. According to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: All Right last one, the London Stock Exchange is weighing

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Speaker 1: up weather to inch produce twenty four hour trading in

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Speaker 1: response to growing demand from small investors.

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Speaker 2: The operator of London's bosses holding discussions about whether to

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Speaker 2: extend its hours, including to round the clock trading. According

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Speaker 2: to the ft, could you imagine that if you're an investor,

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Speaker 2: you don't get a break. It's just always on. It's

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Speaker 2: looking into the practicalities of such a move, including the

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Speaker 2: technology required and the regulatory implications. Exchanges globally are deliberating

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Speaker 2: whether to widen their trading windows as more individual investors

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Speaker 2: trade on their smartphones. The New York Clock Exchange in

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Speaker 2: NASDAQ have recently applied to extend they're trading hours. I

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Speaker 2: just feel sorry for the investors out there.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah. Now, immediately after the show, You've got a

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Speaker 1: great conversation today coming up with Jack Briggs, who is

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Speaker 1: the portfolio manager of the Elliston MidCap Opportunities Fund.

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Speaker 2: So we talked to Jack about the process of how

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Speaker 2: you pick a MidCap. The midcap's kind of like the

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Speaker 2: fiftieth largest company through to the three hundredth largest company.

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Speaker 2: How Elliston does it, how Jack does it, And then

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Speaker 2: we get into the good stuff. Michael, He's got three

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Speaker 2: stock tips for us. One's in healthcare, one's the service sector,

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Speaker 2: and the third one is a telcoat. So there you go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And of course Elliston is doing some work with

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Speaker 1: Soda or Capital, a great supporter of this podcast. It

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Speaker 1: is a really interesting conversation coming up next in the

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you

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Speaker 1: sign up for that free daily newsletter out every morning

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Speaker 1: by six am.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Seawan, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the twenty second of July twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us

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Speaker 1: online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great date.