WEBVTT - How big should Australia be?

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM. Immigration

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<v Speaker 1>is back at the center of federal politics again. The

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<v Speaker 1>Coalition's new leadership is arguing Australian needs lower numbers, tougher

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<v Speaker 1>rules and a clearer cap on how many people we

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<v Speaker 1>bring in each year. It's a familiar conversation. At the

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<v Speaker 1>last election, Peter Dutton tried to put a hard number

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<v Speaker 1>on it, promising the cut migration by one hundred thousand

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<v Speaker 1>a year, saying would help free up housing for Australians,

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<v Speaker 1>but critics say a large cut would hit the workforce

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<v Speaker 1>Australia relies on, including the people needed to build more homes.

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<v Speaker 1>Abil Risvey was a senior official in the Department of

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<v Speaker 1>Immigration from the early nineties to two thousand and seven,

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<v Speaker 1>when he left as Deputy Secretary. He says the argument

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<v Speaker 1>will keep having election after election, skips the bigger question

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<v Speaker 1>Australia's need for a long term population plan and what

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<v Speaker 1>we want it to achieve. Today, we're bringing you an

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<v Speaker 1>episode from the lead up to the twenty twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>federal election with Abel Widsby on the politics or population growth.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Sunday, March one. This episode was first published in

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<v Speaker 1>April twenty twenty five, ad well, thanks for speaking with

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<v Speaker 1>me again. Pett doesn't said he wants to see one

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand and fewer new migrants come to Australia each year.

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<v Speaker 1>In the debate on Tuesday night, he said that every

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<v Speaker 1>forty four seconds a new migrant is entering Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>And a person is coming in every forty four seconds

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<v Speaker 2>into our country, and we haven't got the housing to

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<v Speaker 2>accommodate that.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you make of this goal?

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<v Speaker 3>It depends on what he is referring to, and I

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<v Speaker 3>assume he's referring to net overseas migration, which is the

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<v Speaker 3>arrival of permanent and long term entrance to Australia, irrespective

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<v Speaker 3>of these a category or citizenship, and the departure of

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<v Speaker 3>people similarly long term or permanent. In twenty four to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty five, the Government is forecasting net overseas migration at

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<v Speaker 3>three hundred and thirty five thousand. It is forecasting net

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<v Speaker 3>overseas migration in twenty five twenty six at two hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and sixty thousand. If mister Dutton is saying he can

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<v Speaker 3>deliver in twenty five twenty six net overseas migration of

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred thousand less than the government's forecast. Well, I

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<v Speaker 3>think it is just about impossible to deliver that.

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<v Speaker 1>Why is that?

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<v Speaker 3>There are three reasons he won't do that. One, the

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<v Speaker 3>labor market is likely to still be relatively strong, that's

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<v Speaker 3>certainly what Treasury is forecasting, or subject to whatever mister

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<v Speaker 3>Trump does, things may change. Two, the legislative and regulatory

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<v Speaker 3>changes mister Dutton would need to make would probably take

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<v Speaker 3>the whole of the financial year before he could make them.

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<v Speaker 3>The third reason, he will encounter massive opposition to the

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<v Speaker 3>cuts he wants to make. Firstly from the National Party,

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<v Speaker 3>and they've made it clear there are a range of

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<v Speaker 3>visas they think are off limits, and secondly a range

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<v Speaker 3>of lobby groups in the business community. I would be

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<v Speaker 3>very surprised if mister Dutton is prepared to have a

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<v Speaker 3>fight with both of those.

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<v Speaker 1>So what type of changes would he need to make

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<v Speaker 1>to get anywhere near that target?

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<v Speaker 3>So one he has suggested he wants to cap student

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<v Speaker 3>visas or the number of students. In terms of net

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<v Speaker 3>overseas migration. In twenty three twenty four, just under fifty

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<v Speaker 3>percent of net overseas migrants were students, So if someone

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<v Speaker 3>wants to reduce the level of net overseas migration, if

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<v Speaker 3>you're not talking about students, you're not not really in the.

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<v Speaker 4>Game, despite their presence being worth fifty billion dollars a

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<v Speaker 4>year to the economy. The federal government now wants to

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<v Speaker 4>legislate student caps from twenty twenty five if the legislation.

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<v Speaker 3>Late last year the Labor Party introduced legislation to give

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<v Speaker 3>government the power to cap lesus Separately it's introduced or

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<v Speaker 3>announced where it would set those caps. They were two

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<v Speaker 3>separate actions. One is get the power, second is to

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<v Speaker 3>use the power. Mister Dutton denied the government that power,

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<v Speaker 3>and so if he does win the election, the first

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<v Speaker 3>thing he's going to have to do is go back

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<v Speaker 3>to Parliament and say, by the way, you know that

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<v Speaker 3>power I thought was really really really hopeless and I

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<v Speaker 3>opposed it.

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<v Speaker 5>Could I have it now? Please?

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<v Speaker 1>Can you see him doing that.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm sure he'll word it, perhaps differently, but fundamentally that's

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<v Speaker 3>what he's going to have to do.

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<v Speaker 1>So speaking of international students, we've heard a lot about

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<v Speaker 1>how they are supposedly having an impact on the housing crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>with Peter Dutton saying that the reason he wants to

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<v Speaker 1>cut international student numbers is so that young Australians can

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<v Speaker 1>realize the dream of owning their own home.

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<v Speaker 2>I want desperately to make sure that we get an

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<v Speaker 2>opportunity for young people to believe in and achieve again

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<v Speaker 2>the dream of ownership. There are about forty two international

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<v Speaker 2>students coming into our country for every one student accommodation

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<v Speaker 2>unit that's been approved, and that has had a big impact.

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<v Speaker 1>What's your view on the impact international students are having

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<v Speaker 1>on the housing crisis.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the first thing to be said here is very

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<v Speaker 3>few students actually buy houses. They generally don't have the

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<v Speaker 3>money to afford to buy a house. So what they

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<v Speaker 3>will impact is the rental market. That's true, But the

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<v Speaker 3>rental market they will impact will tend to be that

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<v Speaker 3>market very close to our universities, which tend to be

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<v Speaker 3>in the central business districts of our cities. Very few

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<v Speaker 3>students live out in the outer suburbs and commute into

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<v Speaker 3>the middle of the city to study. That's not where

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<v Speaker 3>they are concentrated.

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<v Speaker 1>What, in your view, has prompted this debate on international students.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's a few things worth saying here about what's

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<v Speaker 3>happened to student numbers. Firstly, we did have a steady

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<v Speaker 3>rise in student numbers leading up to COVID. We had

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<v Speaker 3>something over six hundred and fifty thousand students in Australia

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<v Speaker 3>prior to COVID, plus students who had applied onshore and

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<v Speaker 3>were in what's known as the bridging visa backlook. So

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<v Speaker 3>that's about the numbers before COVID. When COVID started, mister

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<v Speaker 3>Morrison famously said, we'd like you to go home, please.

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<v Speaker 6>Not held here compulsorily. If they're not in a position

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<v Speaker 6>to be able to support themselves, then there is the

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<v Speaker 6>alternative for them to return to their home countries.

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<v Speaker 5>We still have quite and many did so.

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<v Speaker 3>The number of students in Australia fell sharply during COVID.

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<v Speaker 3>Towards the end of COVID, governments were very worried that

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<v Speaker 3>students wouldn't come back, so the Coalition government introduced a

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<v Speaker 3>range of policies to encourage students to come back, such

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<v Speaker 3>as unrestricted work rights, work as long as you like,

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<v Speaker 3>wherever you like, fee free applications. As a result of

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<v Speaker 3>those changes, combined with a really really strong labor market

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<v Speaker 3>during twenty twenty two, we had a massive boom in

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<v Speaker 3>the number of students, and by twenty twenty three both

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<v Speaker 3>sides of politics were worried about the huge explosion in

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<v Speaker 3>the number of students. It's worth saying though, that at

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<v Speaker 3>the end or towards the second half of twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 3>mister Dutton was saying the government needs to increase migration

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<v Speaker 3>and needs to do it quickly, but he wasn't confident

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<v Speaker 3>how quickly the Labor government could increase migration. Nine months

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<v Speaker 3>later he was saying the Labor government has lost control

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<v Speaker 3>of migration.

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<v Speaker 5>It's increased migration much too quickly.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, how big should Australia be?

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<v Speaker 1>Our population is coming up on twenty seven million now,

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<v Speaker 1>we're projected to double that in the next eighty years.

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<v Speaker 1>So how have passed it's approached population planning? Is this

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<v Speaker 1>growth by design?

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<v Speaker 5>No?

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<v Speaker 3>Most governments have shied away from talking about population. They

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<v Speaker 3>did that right through the nineties. Even though there were

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<v Speaker 3>parliamentary committees recommending the need for a population policy, they

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<v Speaker 3>avoided it. They didn't want to talk about population. Mister

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<v Speaker 3>Rudd famously in two thousand and seven eight said he

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<v Speaker 3>believed in a big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>I actually believe in a big Australia. I make no

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<v Speaker 5>apology for that. Everyone jumped all over him. That was

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<v Speaker 5>the Big Australia movement's biggest moment.

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<v Speaker 2>Its founder was dislodged, his idea sent packing.

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<v Speaker 7>I don't believe in simply hurtling down a track to

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<v Speaker 7>a thirty six million or forty million population.

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<v Speaker 3>Ever since then, no government has been keen to talk

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<v Speaker 3>about population. Having said that, in twenty nineteen, mister Morrison

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<v Speaker 3>introduced a very grandly titled document called the Future of

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<v Speaker 3>Australia's Population. The problem with the document is that not

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<v Speaker 3>once mentioned what he thought the future of Australia's population

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<v Speaker 3>should be. He not once mentioned what future net overseas

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<v Speaker 3>migration it should be. He never once discussed what the

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<v Speaker 3>fertility rate would be or life expectancy would be. How

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<v Speaker 3>he was talking about the future of the population without

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<v Speaker 3>mentioning any of those things is an absolute mystery to me.

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<v Speaker 1>Sounds like a bit of an oversight.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I think it was a marketing exercise.

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<v Speaker 1>What were we expecting out of that document before you

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<v Speaker 1>read it?

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<v Speaker 3>Able, I was hoping for a population policy, something that

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<v Speaker 3>talked about our future population. But we didn't talk about

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<v Speaker 3>the future population in that document at all. In fact,

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<v Speaker 3>two months later mister Friedenberg issued his budget papers, in

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<v Speaker 3>which you had to go to Budget Paper number three,

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<v Speaker 3>Appendix A page about eight or nine before you got

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<v Speaker 3>to what mister Fredenberg was forecasting was going to be

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<v Speaker 3>our population and net overseas migration for the next four years.

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<v Speaker 3>He was, in in fact forecasting in that document over

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<v Speaker 3>a four year period, the largest level of absolute population

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<v Speaker 3>growth since a period in the nineteen sixties.

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<v Speaker 5>It's beyond me.

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<v Speaker 3>How two months ago, in March twenty nineteen, mister Morrison

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<v Speaker 3>was talking about a population plan with no mention about population,

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<v Speaker 3>and mister Freedenberg was talking about a back in black

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<v Speaker 3>budget with massive increases in population forecast. But in Appendix

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<v Speaker 3>three of Budget Paper three.

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<v Speaker 1>What you've been laying out of all is that politicians

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<v Speaker 1>love talking about cutting immigration well at the same time

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<v Speaker 1>forecasting massive population growth in budget papers to boost the

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<v Speaker 1>economic outlook. We saw that with the coalition, So once

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<v Speaker 1>Labor got in, what was their approach.

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<v Speaker 3>I was disappointed that the Labor government did not in

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<v Speaker 3>when it commissioned the Parkinson Review, the review of Australia's

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<v Speaker 3>migration system deliberately left out the question of immigration levels.

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<v Speaker 3>It essentially said to mister Parkinson, we'd like you to

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<v Speaker 3>talk about everything about migration, but just don't tell us

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<v Speaker 3>the level. We don't want to know about the level.

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<v Speaker 3>We'll work that out ourselves. Frankly, it is impossible to

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<v Speaker 3>design a migration system unless you start with the level,

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<v Speaker 3>because if you don't have a level in mind, then

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<v Speaker 3>you're basically just making up numbers and policies as you

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<v Speaker 3>go along, and you don't care about.

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<v Speaker 5>What they add up to.

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<v Speaker 3>Governments think the moment you start talking about a population plan,

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<v Speaker 3>you will be tard with the big Australia brush. Irrespective

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<v Speaker 3>of whatever you number you forecast, you'll be saying, ah,

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<v Speaker 3>you're big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not.

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<v Speaker 3>And politicians love pointing at people and saying I don't

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<v Speaker 3>believe in big Australia.

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<v Speaker 5>You do, and therefore you are bad. I am good.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's say hypothetically a government wanted to do this properly,

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<v Speaker 1>to have a well thought out population and migration policy.

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<v Speaker 1>What would that look like in your view?

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<v Speaker 3>A useful thing to understand in this context is that

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<v Speaker 3>immigration mainly because it targets young people, tends to slow

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<v Speaker 3>the rate at which we age. We age more slowly.

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<v Speaker 3>But the second thing that is often not understood is

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<v Speaker 3>if you've moved to a situation of zero net migration,

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<v Speaker 3>within the next ten to fifteen years, we would experience

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<v Speaker 3>a situation where deaths exceeded berths for the first time

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<v Speaker 3>in our history. Now I'm not saying we can avoid

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<v Speaker 3>the point in the future where death succeed berths, but

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<v Speaker 3>i would not be recommending to a government. Let's head

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<v Speaker 3>towards that as fast as we can, and you want

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<v Speaker 3>to use the migration program to fill skill gaps that

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<v Speaker 3>you can't in the medium to long term fill. So,

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<v Speaker 3>for example, there is no chance we will have enough

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<v Speaker 3>nurses over the next ten or twenty years for all

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<v Speaker 3>of us, including me baby boomers who are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be desperately needing health and age care support. There is

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<v Speaker 3>no chance we will have enough concer struction tradees over

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<v Speaker 3>the next decade. That's carpenter's plumbers, bricklayers, et cetera. So

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<v Speaker 3>you've got to take that into account. The second would

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<v Speaker 3>be what are the speed limits from an infrastructure service, delivery,

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<v Speaker 3>housing et cetera perspective for net overseas migration, and that

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<v Speaker 3>boils down to, okay, what is the rate at which

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 3>we can develop infrastructure and housing, et cetera and service

0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 3>delivery and there are speed limits to those things, and

0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.679
<v Speaker 3>we should understand those speed limits. You also need to

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.559
<v Speaker 3>take into account family migration, You need to take into

0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:37.400
<v Speaker 3>account our various free trade agreements, and you need to

0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 3>take into account whatever we're going to do from a

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:42.720
<v Speaker 3>humanitarian and refugee perspective. You've got to bring all of

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:44.839
<v Speaker 3>that together into a sensible plan.

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.400
<v Speaker 1>And without a plan, that leave the question of migrations

0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>acceptable to politics.

0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:51.000
<v Speaker 5>Oh?

0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely absolutely, And in many ways the lack of a

0:13:55.679 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 3>population plan has contributed to the Polario. Not the only thing,

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:05.160
<v Speaker 3>but it has contributed to the polarization of debate on immigration,

0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:07.559
<v Speaker 3>not just in Australia but in other places.

0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.480
<v Speaker 1>And finally, Apple, you spent more time than probably anyone

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>thinking about Australia's migration program. You've dedicated your life to

0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.679
<v Speaker 1>these questions about the makeup of this country. So in

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.440
<v Speaker 1>your view, how big should Australia be?

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:24.440
<v Speaker 5>That's a good question.

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:30.080
<v Speaker 3>And I'm not sure we can ever assume that we

0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 3>can reach a level of population and then stabilize at

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:36.600
<v Speaker 3>that level forever. I doubt whether it's going to look

0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.640
<v Speaker 3>like that. It's more likely to look like a curve.

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 3>If you think back to your high school days, think

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 3>of a parabola. So the question is where does it

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 3>peak before it starts to decline, Because the period nineteen

0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 3>fifty to twenty fifty will be a unique period in

0:14:55.280 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 3>human history. That is, the human race just exploded in

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 3>that one hundred years. We've never had population increase like

0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 3>that on the planet, and after twenty fifty we'll never

0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 3>have it again because steadily the fertility rate of all

0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 3>countries around the world is falling and is projected to

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 3>keep falling.

0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Abel, thank you so much for your time.

0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:36.240
<v Speaker 5>You're most welcome, Danny.

0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James seven Am. Will be back tomorrow with

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 1>the first episode in a special three part series, The

0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Howard Affect. Author and political commentator Amyrimikus takes us back

0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.800
<v Speaker 1>to the Howard Years, which kicked off thirty years ago tomorrow,

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 1>from John Howard's probable rise to the Prime ministership, in

0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 1>which he resurrected a political career many had written off,

0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.000
<v Speaker 1>to the way he consolidated power and reshape the nation

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>in his own image.

0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:06.720
<v Speaker 7>He was speaking to Australians who felt they had been

0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:11.520
<v Speaker 7>left behind. Howard Cell was going, Oh, I'm not actually

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 7>selling you anything. I'm just pointing out that you are

0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:19.040
<v Speaker 7>right to feel discomforted by all of this. And while

0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.720
<v Speaker 7>he was doing that, while he was started waging a

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 7>lot of these culture wars. At the same time he

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:31.000
<v Speaker 7>was winding back union power, he was winding back government regulations,

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.880
<v Speaker 7>he was winding back government support and all of these

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:39.560
<v Speaker 7>other things that people had relied on for community, for organizing,

0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:44.280
<v Speaker 7>for being able to actually get ahead. He presented all

0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 7>of this to the Australian people in a way where

0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:51.240
<v Speaker 7>they felt he was speaking for them, even when what

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 7>he was doing was essentially setting them up for failure.

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.960
<v Speaker 7>What he did was set us up for generations of inequality,

0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 7>division and and put us backwards, not only on the

0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:05.960
<v Speaker 7>world stage, but also domestically.

0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:07.359
<v Speaker 1>See you there,