1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:06,640 Michael Thompson: Welcome to Fear and Greed, Politics and stuff. I'm Michael 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:11,800 Michael Thompson: Thompson and hello Sean Aylmer, Hello Michael Shawn. At the 3 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,800 Michael Thompson: last few weeks and Burke Long Today and next week 4 00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:18,480 Michael Thompson: as well, we are taking a look at the federal 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:22,000 Michael Thompson: election campaign, the key issues, the polls, how the leaders 6 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,560 Michael Thompson: are firing. May three is not far away. We had 7 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,960 Michael Thompson: the third, the penultimate debate, there is still one more 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,959 Michael Thompson: to go last night. How do you think things are 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,000 Michael Thompson: sitting at the moment. Do you think Peter Dutton did 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,479 Michael Thompson: enough in that debate last night to turn around the 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:40,320 Michael Thompson: story for him? 12 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,200 Sean Aylmer: Certainly it was a much better performance from Peter Dutton, 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,360 Sean Aylmer: and I think the worst you could say it was 14 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,440 Sean Aylmer: a draw in terms of Peter Dutton, but he didn't 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,320 Sean Aylmer: do enough to turn it around. And really the election 16 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,960 Sean Aylmer: is Anthony Albanezi and Labors to lose. Now today we 17 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,520 Sean Aylmer: have Peter Dunton talking about a twenty one billion dollar 18 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Sean Aylmer: spend on defense. Already, the government's defense on defense has 19 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,160 Sean Aylmer: been pretty good, saying how are you going to pay 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,520 Sean Aylmer: for it? Exactly the same line they've run on energy 21 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,320 Sean Aylmer: policy and nuclear Exactly the same line they've run on 22 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,920 Sean Aylmer: any big spending initiative, the twenty billion dollars for rural Australia. 23 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:17,959 Sean Aylmer: Same deal. How are you going to pay for it? 24 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:19,360 Sean Aylmer: How are you going to pay for it? They keep 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:23,240 Sean Aylmer: saying it. It is very hard for the Opposition at 26 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,840 Sean Aylmer: the moment seemingly to get much cut through on that. 27 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:28,600 Sean Aylmer: The other thing working against them is Peter Dunton as 28 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,200 Sean Aylmer: a leader. Now, I got saying the debate last night, 29 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,480 Sean Aylmer: he actually came across as a nicer person than I 30 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,120 Sean Aylmer: have seen him come across for a long while. I've 31 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,360 Sean Aylmer: sort of met sat next to him at mid win 32 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,800 Sean Aylmer: a ball one night. Peter dunn't and he's a nice fellow, 33 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,120 Sean Aylmer: he is anice fellow, but he doesn't come across that way. 34 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,480 Sean Aylmer: He really doesn't come across that way. And that's a 35 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:50,880 Sean Aylmer: real problem for the Libs at the moment. 36 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,240 Michael Thompson: Yeah, And I think a lot of that as a 37 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:55,680 Michael Thompson: consequence of the portfolios that he has held in the past, 38 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,760 Michael Thompson: where he has held the Home Affairs portfolio and he 39 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,000 Michael Thompson: has been the Immigration Minister, and these ones where it 40 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:08,440 Michael Thompson: is necessary essentially be to have a really hard line 41 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,120 Michael Thompson: headkicker on a lot of things. Yeah, indeed, and so 42 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,600 Michael Thompson: it's a big ask to go from holding those portfolios 43 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,080 Michael Thompson: where you need to be, yeah, a head kicker to 44 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,400 Michael Thompson: then go to become the leader of the party and 45 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:23,720 Michael Thompson: kind of a welcoming face to all, because in order 46 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:25,399 Michael Thompson: to win the election you need to have a very 47 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,080 Michael Thompson: broad appeal across a whole lot of different demographics. And 48 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:32,160 Michael Thompson: this is of course the biggest election ever in terms 49 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:33,720 Michael Thompson: of the number of people enrolled to vote, as what 50 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:39,000 Michael Thompson: eighteen million and ninety eight thousand people in order to vote. 51 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:43,679 Sean Aylmer: Having said that, Tony Abbott and Tony Abbott did it. Now, 52 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:47,000 Sean Aylmer: he didn't have his portfolios, probably weren't as tough he 53 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,160 Sean Aylmer: was employment and things like that, but he was a 54 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:53,840 Sean Aylmer: head kicker and he did it, and I think the 55 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,600 Sean Aylmer: country wanted a conservative leader back then. I'm not sure 56 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,760 Sean Aylmer: that the other thing working against Dutton at the moment 57 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,600 Sean Aylmer: is the comparison to Trump, and so the more conservative 58 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,560 Sean Aylmer: he gets, the more Labor's able to say, well, he's 59 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,160 Sean Aylmer: very trump Esque, isn't he, and trump esku is so 60 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:08,840 Sean Aylmer: on the nose. 61 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,120 Michael Thompson: It's interesting how much that has turned for the Liberal Party, 62 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,080 Michael Thompson: because in the early days it felt like they were 63 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:19,640 Michael Thompson: perhaps more leaning into those because of the huge groundswell 64 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,280 Michael Thompson: of support that took Donald Trump back into the White 65 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,679 Michael Thompson: House for the second time, and there was this sense 66 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,200 Michael Thompson: within the Liberal Party it seemed, and the coalition broadly, 67 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,680 Michael Thompson: that hey, by replicating a lot of this, we will 68 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,320 Michael Thompson: be able to do the same. And all of a 69 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,680 Michael Thompson: sudden things have soured for Donald Trump and as a 70 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,120 Michael Thompson: result the Liberal Party are backing away from that at 71 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:38,080 Michael Thompson: a million miles an hour. 72 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,760 Sean Aylmer: Look, it's not over yet. The lines last night from 73 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,080 Sean Aylmer: Peter Dutton about Anthony Alberanezi being loose with the truth, 74 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:47,640 Sean Aylmer: you know, can't lie straight in bed at night, some 75 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,600 Sean Aylmer: of those lines do hit. I mean, I don't think 76 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:56,120 Sean Aylmer: the population thinks Anthony Albanese is a crook. He's kind 77 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,480 Sean Aylmer: of steady and he might be wishy washy, but I 78 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,800 Sean Aylmer: don't think it one thinks is a crook. But some 79 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:02,880 Sean Aylmer: of those lines do work. 80 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,480 Michael Thompson: You mentioned that really this is Anthony Albanezi and Labour's 81 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:12,440 Michael Thompson: election to lose. What could lose it for them? Like 82 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,680 Michael Thompson: it would have to be a major, major stumble, right, Yeah, I. 83 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:25,240 Sean Aylmer: Mean, I don't think it's unlikely to be a policy issue, 84 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,760 Sean Aylmer: but certainly a scandal could do it. 85 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,560 Michael Thompson: Yeah, but as far as. 86 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:36,360 Sean Aylmer: We can see, that is unlikely. Polls inevitably narrow as 87 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,840 Sean Aylmer: you get to the pointy end of an election campaign 88 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,240 Sean Aylmer: and people will walk into the polling booth and make 89 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:48,920 Sean Aylmer: their decision. I think the unknowns around the coalition's policy 90 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,560 Sean Aylmer: and Peter Dunton himself is kind of the tipping point 91 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,640 Sean Aylmer: for many people. And so, well, we know what Albanese 92 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,680 Sean Aylmer: is like, we know that at least he will do 93 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,800 Sean Aylmer: some sort of well, the Trump relationship with Albanese, we 94 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,719 Sean Aylmer: understand the Trump relationship with China. We understand better in 95 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,120 Sean Aylmer: safe hands at the moment, and I think that's why 96 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:07,560 Sean Aylmer: he'll win. 97 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,640 Michael Thompson: Yeah, one last question for you, Sean. It feels as 98 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,920 Michael Thompson: though in an election campaign the leaders are trying to 99 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:16,640 Michael Thompson: appeal to as many different groups as they can. But 100 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:19,839 Michael Thompson: on this occasion, it feels as though there have been 101 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,840 Michael Thompson: a number of areas that have been neglected, and one 102 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,400 Michael Thompson: of those that really does stand out is small business. 103 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,839 Michael Thompson: That it just feels like there has not been anything 104 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:32,240 Michael Thompson: really for small business in this election campaign. 105 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,119 Sean Aylmer: Yeah, that's exactly right. And there were two points something 106 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,160 Sean Aylmer: million small businesses out there. Let's say they all employ 107 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,880 Sean Aylmer: one person on average is two people. What's that five 108 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,040 Sean Aylmer: six million people out there who are involved in a 109 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,840 Sean Aylmer: small business. It is surprising that they haven't actually tried 110 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,360 Sean Aylmer: harder with that in my own household. So you know, 111 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:56,479 Sean Aylmer: my local one of the local candidates has promised an 112 00:05:56,560 --> 00:05:58,960 Sean Aylmer: upgrade for the local football field. So one of my 113 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,320 Sean Aylmer: kids who plays in that footba is going to vote 114 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,000 Sean Aylmer: for that person. Another of the kids loves the exercise 115 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:06,919 Sean Aylmer: twenty five cents cheap of fuel. And they're not focused 116 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,159 Sean Aylmer: on politics like we focus on politics. There's just things 117 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,560 Sean Aylmer: that cuts through, and it is interesting that some of 118 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:17,760 Sean Aylmer: those things work. But I don't think I can't see 119 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,120 Sean Aylmer: the coloration winning at this point. Weeks a long time 120 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,440 Sean Aylmer: in politics, Michael, Yeah, but I can't see it. 121 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,360 Michael Thompson: It certainly is all right. We have one more of 122 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,960 Michael Thompson: these to do next week, Sean, and who knows what 123 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,520 Michael Thompson: could have changed in that space. We'll have a whole lots. 124 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,200 Sean Aylmer: Could have changed. We'll make our predictions about So I'm 125 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:39,760 Sean Aylmer: going to put you on the spot who wins minority 126 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,720 Sean Aylmer: majority and I'm going to get a number of seats. 127 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,039 Michael Thompson: Oh look forward to that. I love the fact that 128 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,080 Michael Thompson: you're putting me on the spot with a week's notice, 129 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,839 Michael Thompson: so it's very loosely on the spot, and I'll do 130 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,840 Michael Thompson: the same for you as well, Sean. All right, thanks 131 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:53,440 Michael Thompson: very much, Sean. 132 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:54,279 Sean Aylmer: Thanks Michael. 133 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,080 Michael Thompson: I join us every week during the election campaign for 134 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,120 Michael Thompson: our election coverage. We are covering it all here on 135 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,400 Michael Thompson: Fear and Greed. I'm Michael Thompson and this is fear 136 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,000 Michael Thompson: and greed, politics and stuff.