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Speaker 1: You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker

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Speaker 1: every morning to hear the latest episode. Just say play

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Speaker 1: the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's

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Speaker 1: on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, August seventh.

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Speaker 1: White hot tensions in the Middle East, with the United

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Speaker 1: States rushing military assets to the region in anticipation of

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Speaker 1: a war between Iran and Israel. That story is moving fast.

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Speaker 1: Check out the very latest right now at the Australian

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Speaker 1: dot com dot AU. Senator Linda Reynolds says the late

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Speaker 1: Labor Senator Kimberly Kitchen told her Labor was going to

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Speaker 1: weaponize Brittaney Higgins rape allegations against her. That's the latest

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Speaker 1: bombshell in the defamation trial where Reynolds is suing Higgins

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Speaker 1: and her husband David Charaz for mortgage holders. No rate

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Speaker 1: cup this time the RBAS kept the cash rate at

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Speaker 1: four point three five percent and ruled out a cut

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Speaker 1: for the next six months. It's a welcome bit of

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Speaker 1: certainty after days of chaos on global markets. So what

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Speaker 1: is going on with the share market and what's it

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Speaker 1: all going to mean for US superannuation balances. That's today

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Speaker 1: on the front. The stock markets have an unsettling habit

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Speaker 1: of about once a decade going into complete meltdown, prompting

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Speaker 1: the rest of society to have to start paying attention

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Speaker 1: to what it is they actually do in their pinstriped

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Speaker 1: shirts and expensive warches. From the Independent News, this is

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Speaker 1: USA tonight.

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Speaker 2: Today is Black Monday, the day the Dow dropped more

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Speaker 2: than five hundred points. But this crash of nineteen eighty

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Speaker 2: seven is not just an American experience. Around the world,

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Speaker 2: stock markets fell faster than a skydiver without a parafute.

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Speaker 1: The cliche goes something like this. On a Monday morning,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of twenty four year old stockbrokers go into work.

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Speaker 1: They've had a big weekend partying and they've all got headaches.

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Speaker 1: They've got themselves whipped up into a panic about something

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Speaker 1: that happened over the weekend in international stock markets for

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Speaker 1: the currency trade, and they get on their phones and

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Speaker 1: start shouting sell at one another. The mood becomes grim.

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Speaker 1: People lose money. Like that miss panic, everyone's a path.

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Speaker 1: Well this week it's all happening again. On Monday. The

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Speaker 1: Australian Stock Exchange's top two hundred index was down three

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Speaker 1: point seven percent, the worst session since May twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: when the panic was about the global pandemic.

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Speaker 3: I've been doing this for a while so.

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Speaker 1: Eric Johnston is The Australian's associate editor. He's m go

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Speaker 1: to expert on business, banking and the economy. The last

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Speaker 1: time I had him on the front he was explaining

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Speaker 1: why I shouldn't be in a rage about multi billion

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Speaker 1: dollar bank profits. Eric is very zen. He doesn't tend

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Speaker 1: to panic.

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Speaker 3: When I saw stock markets around the world starting to crash,

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Speaker 3: you always think, in the back of your mind it

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Speaker 3: was sort of bottom outed of fall about two percent,

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Speaker 3: two point one percent or so on. But to see

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Speaker 3: the markets keep getting lower and lower, crossing a three

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Speaker 3: percent threshold, that's a red line. Certainly when you look

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Speaker 3: at it as a financial journalist seeing shares in Japan

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Speaker 3: crash by twelve percent, they are numbers that you just

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Speaker 3: don't see. They're once in a lifetime type figures.

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Speaker 1: But every time this kind of market panic happens, I

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Speaker 1: can't help myself. I go and check my superbalance. I'm

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Speaker 1: a bit worried about this because last time I did this,

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Speaker 1: one of these things happened. I checked my superbalance and

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Speaker 1: it was way down.

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Speaker 2: Eric.

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Speaker 1: As soon as I heard about market chaos, the S

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Speaker 1: and P falling, the Nasdaq in crisis, I immediately went

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Speaker 1: and checked my superbalance. Is that something you would recommend

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Speaker 1: people do.

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Speaker 3: No, definitely not. Remember your super is long term, so

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Speaker 3: that's for your career. You've got another twenty or thirty

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Speaker 3: years worth of working, Claire, So the super is going

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Speaker 3: to go up and down from day to day, so

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Speaker 3: kind of meaningless in the biggest sense of that focus

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Speaker 3: on the long term trend.

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Speaker 1: It does make me worried though, that a bunch of

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Speaker 1: twenty seven year old stock traders wearing pin striped suits

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Speaker 1: and shouting at each other are potentially going to wipe

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Speaker 1: out all this money that I've been saving over the

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Speaker 1: years in my super account.

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Speaker 3: Well, the first point I have to put you up on,

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure they wear pin striped suits anymore.

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Speaker 1: I'm a twenty years out in my references.

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Speaker 3: So they're all sitting at trading desks and behind screens,

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Speaker 3: and it's actually big boxes in the back of Gold

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Speaker 3: and Sacks or City Group or something actually do in

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Speaker 3: the trading. Those traders don't exist The broader point is,

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Speaker 3: though there are big global forces that often influence the

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Speaker 3: value of our shares that we sort of park away.

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Speaker 3: These things rise and fall on global currents.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so this time what caused the big panic.

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Speaker 3: So initially Australia was reacting to quite a violent sell

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Speaker 3: down in the US on Wall Street on Friday. What

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Speaker 3: we're starting to see is what's called the unwinding of

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Speaker 3: the carry trade. The carry trade is when you borrow

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Speaker 3: money from a country where the interest rates are very

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Speaker 3: low and reinvest that money somewhere else in the world

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Speaker 3: where returns are much higher. So you might borrow money

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Speaker 3: from Japan, which have near zero interest rates, and put

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Speaker 3: those funds in, say the United States or in Australia,

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Speaker 3: where interest rates are much higher. You get that return

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Speaker 3: that represents your profit on that investment. That only works

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Speaker 3: as long as interest rates in the borrowing countries stays

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Speaker 3: low and stable, and markets remain stable as well.

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Speaker 1: Right now, in Tokyo, it's a sweltering, humored late summer

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Speaker 1: thirty three degrees. The locals are drinking ice cold cans

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Speaker 1: and milky soft drinks and listening to twenty four carrot

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Speaker 1: gold Genesis. The chart topping single from a sixteen member

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Speaker 1: jpop band called The Rampage from Exiled Tribe Genesis. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and there's something else making everyone sweaty. The economy is

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Speaker 1: going through a massive change. Interest rates are going up

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Speaker 1: for the first time in nearly twenty years.

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Speaker 3: So what happened last week was the Japanese central Bank,

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Speaker 3: the Bank of Japan, increased its interest rates and suggested

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Speaker 3: that there could be more increases to come. At the

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Speaker 3: same time, you're seeing the prospect of interest rates in

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Speaker 3: the United States coming down faster than expected. That's because

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Speaker 3: of a fear that the economy there is slowing. So

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Speaker 3: you're seeing this great arm wrestle, this great reallocation of money.

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Speaker 3: Money being sucked out of the US market, particularly there

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Speaker 3: was in high yielding shares such as tech stocks. So

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Speaker 3: you like your Navidia's, your Microsoft's, your Amazons, and that's

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Speaker 3: been reallocated back into Japan. Also, with the Japanese shares

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Speaker 3: falling so violently, you see money sucked out of their

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Speaker 3: Japanese share mark, which has been bit up and moved

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Speaker 3: into Japanese bonds. And what can you do when you

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Speaker 3: sit there watching your Komwealth Bank shares rise and fall

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Speaker 3: not much. You just hang on for the ride.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. Why interest rates here still aren't going down?

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Speaker 1: It's always reassuring to talk to Eric, and you can

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Speaker 1: read his soothing analysis every day by joining us describers

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Speaker 1: at the Australian dot com dot au. We'll be back

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Speaker 1: after this break. It seems every time there is a

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Speaker 1: big story about a big kind of global share market

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Speaker 1: sell off, that what it boils down to is some

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Speaker 1: exotic new product that has been invented. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: credit default swaps, or it's a CEOs or something that

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Speaker 1: people are selling to each other that nobody else can understand.

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Speaker 1: Is the carry trade another one of these exotic products,

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Speaker 1: or is it something that is more significant? It's more serious.

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Speaker 3: This time it really is different. We talk about in

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Speaker 3: markets what we do know, what we don't know, and

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Speaker 3: then what we really don't know. So this time it

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Speaker 3: is different because we do know what the risks are

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Speaker 3: out there. We've got the Chinese economy slowing, but we've

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Speaker 3: known about that for some time. That's starting to play

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Speaker 3: out on commodity prices. The US economy is slowing. What

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Speaker 3: we don't know is the pace of it. Even here

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Speaker 3: We've just seen the Reserve Bank keep its cash rate

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Speaker 3: on hold. Although the statement was hawkish, which means that

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Speaker 3: they are threatening further interest rate hikes. We kind of

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Speaker 3: know that they're going to hold on until they watch

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Speaker 3: inflation go down. There's nothing that seems to be lurking

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Speaker 3: in the corners for markets this time. What we do

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Speaker 3: know is the valuations of stocks like your common Wealth

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Speaker 3: Bank shares have been bit up incredibly so Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 3: is trading a historic highs and is so overvalued. It's

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Speaker 3: like when we previously walked into a shop and we're

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Speaker 3: paying ten dollars for a lettuce. We all knew that

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Speaker 3: they were so overvalued anyway, must have us still bordered anyway.

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Speaker 3: Common Wealth Bank shares a little bit like that, has

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Speaker 3: been bit up to such an extent that it is overvalued.

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Speaker 3: So that's why this pullback is different. It's not something

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Speaker 3: that we're all sitting here white knuckled and scared about.

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Speaker 3: We know the risks in the world. We've been living

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Speaker 3: with geopolitical risks for the last two years. We know

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Speaker 3: inflations out there, so the kind of the bad stuff

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Speaker 3: is already out there.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned that so much trading now is automated. It's

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Speaker 1: done by big box sitting in the corner. Has that

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Speaker 1: created a kind of different mood in the markets? Are

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Speaker 1: they more mature now than they were when a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of people who'd done too much coke were frantically

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Speaker 1: selling everything at the drop of a hat.

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Speaker 3: I don't know what the computers are doing, but look,

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Speaker 3: the potentially the valuations and the calculations are going to

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Speaker 3: buying and selling is much more sophisticated than what a

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Speaker 3: desk jockey could ever figure out. So the instinct will come.

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Speaker 3: Wealth Bank hit its eurnings targets this year based on

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Speaker 3: what we know about the economy. Yes or no, a

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Speaker 3: computer can figure that out much more accurately. But we

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Speaker 3: are still talking about markets which are driven ultimately by emotion.

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Speaker 3: You and I still walked into that supermarket and we

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Speaker 3: still paid ten dollars for that letters because how we

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Speaker 3: wanted it and everyone else wanted it at the same time.

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Speaker 1: Cabbage is just not the same, just not the same.

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Speaker 3: So look, markets are driven by emotion still. However, there's

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Speaker 3: more buying and selling, there's more turning over. It's easier

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Speaker 3: to buy and sell shares compared to what it was

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Speaker 3: when we're talking about back in the day of the stockbrokers,

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Speaker 3: you had to physically ring somebody up, you had to

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Speaker 3: place an order, you had to have the money. Now

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Speaker 3: you can just do it at a hit of a button.

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Speaker 3: Big fund managers can just buy and sell and churn

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Speaker 3: over their portfolios. Liquidity. People often think it's a bad thing,

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Speaker 3: but it is actually a good thing because it helps

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Speaker 3: markets discover prices much more efficiently.

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Speaker 1: On Tuesday afternoon in the office, I saw you pouring

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Speaker 1: over the statement from the Reserve Bank along with some

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Speaker 1: of our other big brains in the business section. What

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Speaker 1: is the Reserve Bank saying about the future of the

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Speaker 1: economy and what do you think about how we're going

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Speaker 1: to fare over the next few months.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this one. There was a lot of scrutiny coming

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Speaker 3: into this Reserve Bank meeting because there was talk just

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Speaker 3: a few weeks ago, real serious talk among economists that

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Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank could in fact be forced to raise

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Speaker 3: interest rates again and that would be a really hard

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Speaker 3: shock to a lot of people paying mortgages. The Reserve

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Speaker 3: is concerned that there is still quite a lot of

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Speaker 3: spending in the economy, but it's in different areas and

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Speaker 3: it might not be those people that have just bought

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Speaker 3: into a house or a mortgage. We know that those

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Speaker 3: people are doing it tough, particularly in the late twenties

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Speaker 3: and early thirties. They're the cohort that are really feeling

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Speaker 3: the squois. They've just got a house, maybe they've got

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Speaker 3: a young family as well, so money is just going

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Speaker 3: out of the door like nothing else. There's a category

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Speaker 3: of consumers in Australia net savers. Those people have never

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Speaker 3: seen it better before and they're spending as well. Another

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Speaker 3: factor is and despite what we hear, unemployment is still

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Speaker 3: quite low in the economy. If you're starting a business

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Speaker 3: or if you're still trying to hire, it's maybe eased

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Speaker 3: up a little bit, but it's very hard to get labor,

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Speaker 3: to get workers in the door. So the RBA is

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Speaker 3: still concerned, like the economy is still sort of maybe

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Speaker 3: a little bit too overheated, and that's why they're talking

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Speaker 3: about potential for the raid hikes.

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Speaker 1: Eric Johnston is an associate editor with The Australian. Sixteen

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Speaker 1: thousand US marines should be deployed to Australia every year

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Speaker 1: to help us defend ourselves. That's according to a report

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Speaker 1: revealed in The Australian Today. Check it out at the

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Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au